10:00 AM ET, Tuesday, September 12, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
The Americas
China Conducted Maui Fire Disinformation Campaign Using AI. China is spreading disinformation about the wildfires that devastated Maui last month as part of more direct efforts to sow discord in the U.S., according to researchers. The Maui disinformation campaign blamed the fires on a secret “weather weapon” being tested by the U.S. military. False posts spreading the claim carried photographs that appear to have been made with artificial intelligence (AI) programs, making the operation one of the first known disinformation efforts to use the new technology. While researchers say few social media users appear to have engaged with the campaign, it is notable for its novel use of AI and the fact that it exploited a natural disaster for political gain. Researchers added that the campaign may be part of China’s efforts to build a network of social media accounts for future information operations, including the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Russia has also spread some disinformation about the Maui fires, focusing on how much the U.S. spends on military aid for Ukraine in comparison to disaster relief. However, researchers say there is no indication Beijing and Moscow are cooperating on information operations, though their campaigns’ messages often align. New York Times
U.S. Permits Transfer of $6 Billion of Iranian Funds for Prisoner Swap. The U.S. has approved the transfer of $6 billion in frozen Iranian funds from South Korea to Qatar as part of a planned prisoner swap with Tehran. The Biden administration also confirmed for the first time that it has agreed to release five Iranian citizens held in the U.S. as part of the deal, though it did not specify who the prisoners are. Secretary of State Antony Blinken waived sanctions to facilitate the funds transfer last week since it is “in the national security interest of the U.S.” to do so, according to a document on the decision. Congress was reportedly not notified of the waiver until Monday. Some Republican lawmakers have criticized the Biden administration for the arrangement, arguing that the deal will boost the Iranian economy and rewards hostage taking. National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson countered criticism by saying the arrangement is focused on securing the release of five “wrongfully detained” Americans held in Iran. Sources say the prisoner swap could be held as early as next week. Associated Press Reuters
US House Committee Chair Says China’s Economy Troubles Could Endanger Taiwan. Mike Gallagher, the Republican chair of a US congressional committee on China, said Monday that Beijing’s economic troubles could make an invasion of Taiwan more likely to occur, in contrast to assertions by U.S. President Joe Biden that Beijing’s economic woes would lessen the risk of military action. On Sunday, Biden referred to China’s economic slowdown as a “crisis” and suggested that the nation may not have the "same capacity" that it used to, which could make Beijing less likely to take military action against Taiwan. Speaking at a Council on Foreign Relations event in New York, Gallagher countered that Chinese President Xi Jinping could become “more risk accepting” and “less predictable,” or “do something very stupid” as the nation deals with its severe economic and demographic problems. He added that this suggestion was not meant as a reproval of the Biden administration, and said he was working with financial industry experts to evaluate the risk to the world financial system if China were to invade or blockade Taiwan. Reuters
U.S. Approves Sale of Air and Missile Defense System to Poland. The U.S. State Department has approved the potential sale of an Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) Battle Command System (IBCS) to Poland for $4 billion. The deal will be phase two of a two-phase program for the command system enabled PATRIOT Configuration-3+ with modernized sensors and components. The sale would include 93 of the system's engagement operation centers, 175 fire control network relays and other related equipment. The Pentagon said the deal aims to bolster Poland’s missile defense capability. Reuters US DoD DSCA
Western Europe
Sweden Announces Boost to Defense Spending. Sweden’s government said on Monday that it will boost defense spending by 28% in order to hit the military spending target of 2% of GDP set by NATO. Swedish defense minister Pål Jonson warned that the nation is “in the most serious security policy situation since the end of World War II,” stressing the importance of having a strong defense, adapting Sweden’s preparedness and military drills, and continuing to show support for Ukraine. The government announced that military spending would increase by a total of $2.4 billion, and of that amount, around $63 million will go towards the country’s future NATO membership. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, both Sweden and neighboring Finland sought NATO membership in May 2022; Finland joined earlier this year and Sweden is still waiting for Turkey to ratify its application. Associated Press Reuters
Central and Eastern Europe
Zelensky, Allies Urge for Greater Focus on War, Crackdown on Corruption. In a sign that authorities in Kyiv are preparing for a potentially lengthy war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and allies on Monday called on citizens to focus their attention on the war effort. In his nightly video message, Zelensky asserted that "every one must be focused on the defense of the state" despite the length of the war. He has also promised to clampdown on corruption, urging greater focus on the conflict as part of the nation’s bid to join the EU. This campaign precipitated the dismissal of Ukraine’s defense minister last week and also prompted the arrest of a business mogul, who was at one point the President’s mentor, on fraud charges. Zelensky has funneled efforts into eradicating corruption as part of efforts to ensure EU and NATO membership. David Arakhamia, the head of Zelensky’s party in parliament, reiterated the President’s point that there can be no “weakening,” saying that Kyiv must now “switch to a 'wartime budget' where there will be no more spending” on “junk … only defenses and only weapons." Reuters
Putin Signals Preparation for Long War in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated on Tuesday that he is preparing for a long war in Ukraine, saying a ceasefire will only allow Kyiv to rearm. (Editor’s note: Cipher Brief Russia experts have long said that Putin will use any ceasefire or pause in the fighting in Ukraine as an opportunity to refit and rearm for future offensive operations. That’s a message that we heard consistently last week in Kyiv.). Putin asserted that only when the Ukrainian military is exhausted will Ukraine be open to peace negotiations, adding that the ball is in Ukraine’s court to first cancel its self-imposed legal ban on peace talks. He also said that while several potential mediators have approached Russia to open peace talks, Moscow could not do so amid the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which he claimed has failed and resulted in the losses of 71,000 Ukrainian military personnel. Ukraine maintains that it will not stop fighting until every Russian soldier is removed from Ukrainian territory. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has also doubted Russia’s sincerity in potential talks, noting how Putin has reneged on past deals. Zelensky has specifically pointed to the death of Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin as what happens to those who make deals with Putin. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in an interview with ABC News earlier this week, says that Russia needs to show good faith before serious negotiations can begin and added that “Everyone wants this war to end, but it has to end on just terms and on durable terms that reflect Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity”. Regarding the state of Russia’s military, Putin claimed that 270,000 people have voluntarily joined the armed forces over the past six to seven months. Reuters CNN
Kim Jong Un Arrives in Russia, Top U.S. General Plays Down Impact of Possible Arms Deal. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un arrived in Russia’s Far East in his armored train early on Tuesday, according to media reports. Kim is expected to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Eastern Economic Forum in the Russian port city of Vladivostok. North Korean state media said Kim was accompanied by top government and defense officials. His delegation is thought to include North Korea’s foreign minister Choe Sun-hui and munitions industry department director Jo Chun-ryong, which analysts said could suggest Moscow and Pyongyang will conclude some type of munitions deal. The U.S. has warned that Russia and North Korea are negotiating an arms deal where Pyongyang would give weapons in exchange for Russian energy and food aid and military technology. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed these warnings on Tuesday, saying that Russia and North Korea will focus on the “interests of our two countries” and “not warnings from Washington.” The U.S. has warned that North Korea would “pay a price” if it agreed to any arms deal. However, General Mark Milley, Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, played down the impact of such an agreement, saying the transfer of North Korean weapons to Russia will “make a substantive difference” in the Ukraine war. He added that the Putin-Kim meeting shows Russia is having difficulty sustaining its invasion of Ukraine, which is why it has turned to Pyongyang “with a tin cup in hand.” Researchers supported Milley’s assessment of the usefulness of North Korean weapons for Russia, saying they could prolong the Ukraine war by replenishing Russian stocks but are unlikely to change the outcome. Japan Times Associated Press The Guardian Axios Reuters
Putin says Russia-China Relations have Reached ‘Unprecedented Historical Level.’ Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that ties between Moscow and Beijing have reached an "unprecedented historical level.” Russian state media reported that Putin, while meeting with China’s Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum, said that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping have "friendly personal and business relations,” which aids “the cause of developing bilateral relations and interstate ties." Putin also welcomed the high level of political and economic collaboration between Beijing and Moscow. China has never denounced Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and continues to boost ties with Russia, further straining its relationship with Western nations. CNN Barron's
‘No Reasons to Worry:’ NATO says No Risk Romania will be Dragged into Ukraine War. NATO Deputy-General Secretary Mircea Geoana said Monday that there is “no risk” and “no reasons to worry” that Romania, a member of the military alliance, will be dragged into Russia’s war with Ukraine. His remarks came after authorities twice found drone debris in Romanian territory after Russian attacks on nearby Ukrainian ports on the Danube River. Geoana told reporters that there has been “no indication” that Russia intentionally struck Romanian soil. He also said NATO officials have created a new level of defense plans “for exactly this type of situation, or even worse, for cases of deliberate attacks.” He also welcomed measures by the U.S. to aid NATO’s air policing of the Black Sea as well as deploying more of the alliance’s soldiers to the 5,000 already stationed in Romania. Associated Press
Asia and Oceania
South Korea Calls for China to Play ‘Responsible’ Role Over North Korea. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol said on Tuesday that he told Chinese Premier Li Qiang in a meeting last week that China must play a “responsible” role in curbing North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. Yoon also told Li that North Korea should not be a “stumbling block” in relations between Beijing and Seoul and that provocations from Pyongyang pose an “existential threat” to South Korea. Yoon also said that he and Li were supportive of resuming a trilateral summit with Japan this year. Reuters
Taiwan Warns China Building Air Power on Coast Facing Island. Taiwan’s defense ministry said on Tuesday in its biennial report that China is bolstering air power on its coast facing Taiwan with new permanent deployments of fighter jets and drones and expansions at air bases. The ministry added in its National Defense Report that China frequently holds “realistic” military drills and exercises around Taiwan to strengthen its “preparedness” against the island and “intimidate” Taipei. The report also noted China’s “gray zone” activities against Taiwan, including the use of weather balloons and civilian aircraft for surveillance. The ministry did assert in the report that in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the island could “preemptively strike its mobilizing invasion forces” with precision weapons. The report also outlined plans for Taiwan to bolster its military over the next five years, including with the production of 7,700 military drones by 2028. The report comes as U.S. officials consider whether China’s economic slowdown makes it more or less likely to take military action against Taiwan. Huang Wen-chi, assistant deputy chief for Taiwan's General Staff for Intelligence, noted that China’s defense spending continues to increase, and that Beijing has yet to show any “friendliness” to Taipei, so Taiwan cannot let its guard down. Reuters Nikkei Asia Taiwan News
Japan Upgrades Taiwan Security Ties with New De Facto Defense Attaché. Japan has reportedly upgraded security ties with Taiwan by appointing a government official to serve as its de facto defense attaché in Taiwan. Sources say the new attaché will be joined by an official from the defense ministry to support information gathering and communication with the Taiwanese military. One source added that the move is “symbolic” of Japan’s support for Taiwan and that Taipei has been asking Tokyo to name an “active duty defense official” to the post. The position has until now been held by a retired Japan Self Defense Force Officer to avoid antagonizing China. Underscoring this point, the appointment of a current official to the role was halted last year after media reports about the plan. Japan’s Defense Ministry maintains it will only pursue “non-governmental” ties with Taiwan. Taiwan’s Defense Ministry did not comment on the attaché but said it will continue deep cooperation with “like-minded partners like Japan.” China’s foreign ministry did not comment on the move. Reuters
Middle East and Northern Africa
Iran's Judiciary Confirms Imprisonment of Swedish EU Worker. Iran’s judiciary on Tuesday confirmed the detention of a Swedish EU worker. Last week, Swedish and EU officials reported that a Swedish citizen was being held in Iran, the latest known instance of a foreign national being detained in the country amidst tensions with the West. Masoud Setayeshi, Iran’s judiciary spokesperson, said that "the Swedish national has been lawfully imprisoned following preliminary inquiry and the results of a full investigation into his case will be released in the coming days." Reuters Jerusalem Post
Sub Saharan Africa
Sudan Army Chief Visits Eritrea. Sudanese state media reported that Sudan’s military leader, Gen. Abdel Fattah Burhan, traveled to Eritrea on Monday to meet with President Isaias Afwerki, in the general’s fourth international trip since the conflict between his army and the rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) began in April. Without providing many details, Sudanese state news said that the discussions between Burhan and Isaias would center on bilateral relations and the war in Sudan. Burhan has recently sought international support amid the conflict against the RSF. In the past two weeks, Burhan has met with Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the Qatari emir, as well as with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi. Associated Press
Cyber and Tech
CISA Orders Federal Agencies To Patch Vulnerabilities in Long List of Apple Devices. Federal agencies were ordered by the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) on Monday to patch security vulnerabilities that have led to iPhones being infected with NSO Group's Pegasus spyware. According to Citizen Lab, two flaws were employed in compromises of fully-patched iPhones using a zero-click iMessage exploit chain named BlastPass. Users of Apple devices were warned last week to immediately apply emergency patches and especially vulnerable customers were urged to enable Lockdown Mode. An extensive list of impacted devices has been released and includes both older and newer Apple devices. iPhone 8 and later models, iPad Pro’s, Apple Watch 4 and later are among the popular devices in the list. CISA added the two security flaws to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog on Monday, describing them as posing "significant risks to the federal enterprise." CISA’s order requires all Federal executive branch agencies to implement the patches on all vulnerable iOS, iPadOs, and macOS devices by October 2. CISA also strongly advised the private sector to patch the two vulnerabilities as soon as possible. BleepingComputer CISA
MGM Resorts Systems Impacted by Cyberattack, Including Casinos, Hotels. After the discovery of a cyber intrusion, MGM Resorts on Monday shut down selected online systems. The company did not respond to requests for comment, but sources reported that slot machines and ATM’s at MGM Las Vegas casinos were not operating. In addition, the company’s website has been taken offline. In a Twitter (X) statement, MGM said it “quickly began an investigation with assistance from leading external cybersecurity experts.” Local Las Vegas media have reported that computer systems at MGM hotels, including the Bellagio Hotel, were also down and were unable to accept credit cards. Several accounts on the social media platform X provided further details of the fallout from the attack, though the reports couldn’t immediately be substantiated. One post described the situation at the Borgata casino in Atlantic City, noting “all computer systems are down. Slots will not accept tickets, and anyone trying to cash out is getting the Handpay message regardless of amount.” The Record Reuters Bloomberg
Sri Lankan Government Email System Loses Months of Data in Ransomware Attack. The government email system in Sri Lanka was impacted by a ransomware attack the eliminated months of data from thousands of accounts, including those of top government officials. The attack began at the end of August and affected 5,000 email accounts. Email accounts belonging to members of Sri Lanka’s council of ministers were targeted in the attack. Both the targeted system and its backups were encrypted during the attack. Sri Lanka’s computer emergency response team (CERT|CC) is investigating the intrusion and working to recover lost data. Mahesh Perera, the head of Sri Lanka’s Information and Communication Technology Agency (ICTA), said the government does not plan to negotiate with threat actors or pay a ransom. According to ICTA, the attackers may have targeted government employees with emails containing malicious links. It is believed a ransomware gang probably exploited a vulnerability in an outdated version of Microsoft Exchange. Perera told Sri Lankan media an upgrade to the system was considered in 2021, but budgetary limits delayed those plans. Sri Lanka does not have a formal cybersecurity organization and prior to June had not introduced cybersecurity legislation. The Record
Reuters Special Report Examines AI-Powered Weapons Race Between China, Western States. AI-enhanced weapons systems, including autonomous platforms, are at the center of a heated race between China and the U.S. and its allies, according to a special report issued by Reuters. Reuters notes that contributing to this contest of political systems and militaries is the Ukraine conflict, and Kyiv’s innovative adaptation of technologies on the battlefield. That wartime experience is triggering innovations in related military platforms, such as Australia’s development of the Ghost Shark autonomous subsurface drone. The uncrewed submarine complements large-scale, expensive systems such as the nuclear submarine fleet also planned for Australian defense forces. The combination of quickly deployable AI-enhanced systems, like the Ghost Shark, and the continued modernization of conventional naval forces are seen as critical to keeping pace with China’s ambitions in the Pacific and beyond. As Reuters notes, “seizing the upper hand across fields including AI and autonomous weapons, like Ghost Shark, could determine who comes out on top.” That perspective is echoed by Mick Ryan, a retired Australian Army major general who has studied the impact of technological use in warfare, including in Ukraine. He observed that coming out on top in digital and software competitions with China is essential, noting that these sectors govern “everything from weather prediction, climate change models, and testing new-era nuclear weapons to developing exotic new weapons and materials that can provide a leap-ahead capability on the battlefield and beyond.” Reuters
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