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10:00 AM ET, Tuesday, October 24, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

THE TOP STORIES

Li Shangfu Removed as China’s Defense Minister.  Chinese General Li Shangfu has been removed as the country’s defense minister.  Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported his removal, without explanation.  Li has not been seen in public since late August.  He is the second minister to be abruptly removed in recent months, following Win Gang’s removal as foreign minister and replacement by his predecessor Wang Yi after a similar withdrawal from public view.  Both Li and Qin are state councilors on China’s State Council, and Li is both the public face of the People’s Liberation Army and a senior member of the PLA’s ruling Central Military Commission.  No replacement has been announced for Li, leaving the defense minister role vacant.  Li’s removal comes ahead of key defense meetings in the region which both U.S. and Chinese military officials are planning to attend.  South China Morning Post Reuters Bloomberg New York Times Associated Press 

China’s Foreign Minister to Visit DC This Week Ahead of Possible Biden-Xi Meeting.  Chinese Foreign Minister is arriving in Washington on Thursday for a three-day visit.  Officials say Wang will meet U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and national security advisor Jake Sullivan to discuss issues including the Ukraine war, Israel-Hamas conflict and the collision of Philippine and Chinese vessels in the South China Sea.  The officials described Wang’s trip as reciprocal to Blinken’s visit to Beijing in June.  The officials did not mention Chinese President Xi Jinping’s potential attendance at the upcoming APEC Summit in San Francisco, where he may meet with President Joe Biden, or indicate that Wang’s trip this week is meant to prepare for such a meeting.  China has not confirmed if Xi will participate in the summit.  Wang’s visit will come after a series of trips by senior U.S. officials to China as part of efforts to maintain high-level engagement to manage tense bilateral relations.  Associated Press CNN Reuters Washington Post South China Morning Post

Former NSA Employee Pleads Guilty to Trying to Sell Classified Information to Russia.  Former National Security Agency employee Jareh Sebastian Dalke pleaded guilty on Monday to trying to sell classified national security information to Russia.  Dalke, who worked as an information systems security designer for the NSA, attempted to give the information to an undercover FBI agent who prosecutors say he believed was a Russian agent in 2022.  According to the indictment, Dalke sought to give information including a threat assessment of the military offensive capabilities of a third, unnamed country, as well as information on sensitive U.S. defensive capabilities, some of which was in relation to the same third country.  Dalke allegedly told the agent he wanted to “cause change” after being disillusioned with the U.S. role in causing damage to the world, but he also said he was $237,000 in debt and wanted to work with Russia due to his heritage ties to the country.  Dalke technically faces up to a possible life sentence for attempting to pass on the classified information, but federal prosecutors have agreed to ask for approximately 22 years in prison when he is sentenced in April if he adheres to the plea deal, which requires that he freely talk to authorities about his crimes.  ABC News Associated Press

ISRAEL HAMAS WAR

Israel Says Airstrikes on Hamas Will Continue as U.S. Urges Caution.  The Israeli military said on Tuesday that it killed dozens of Hamas fighters in airstrikes on Gaza overnight and that the attacks will continue. Earlier, Israeli Chief of Staff Gen. Herzi Halevi said the goal is “to bring Hamas to a state of full dismantling.” The military said it struck more than 400 targets in Gaza over 24 hours, including a tunnel, command and lookout posts, and mortar and anti-tank missile launcher positions. The Gaza health ministry said Israeli air strikes killed over 700 people in the Gaza Strip in the past day and over 5,000 in total since the Hamas attacks.  Palestinian officials and witnesses report air strikes on the al-Shati and Nuseirat refugee camps in Gaza in the last day.  Israeli ground forces also made incursions into Gaza overnight, partly to “kill squads of terrorists” and partly to gather intelligence, according to military spokesman Daniel Hagari.

Meanwhile, Hamas’s Al-Qassam Brigades said they fired missiles into Israel on Monday.  However, Hamas also released two Israeli hostages, the third and fourth to be released. Before their release, sources said freeing more hostages is a U.S. priority.  Asked about the possibility of a ceasefire in Gaza, President Joe Biden said, “We should have those hostages released and then we’ll talk.”

While the U.S. has stressed Israel’s right to defend itself, sources say the Biden Administration has stepped up private appeals to Israel to exercise caution. U.S. officials said they are recommending that Israel not begin a ground offensive before the U.S. gets military assets in place to prepare for use in the event of further expansion of the conflict. The officials said holding off on a ground assault also will allow Qatar more time to continue working for the release of hostages.

Former President Barack Obama also weighed in yesterday, urging Israeli restraint. In an online post, Obama said Israel has a right to defend itself but he warned that a military strategy “that ignores human costs could ultimately backfire.”

Meanwhile, the conflict continued to escalate beyond Gaza. Israeli aircraft hit Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon, and the Israeli army fought with Palestinians in the West Bank, where Israeli forces said they raided the Jalazone refugee camp near Ramallah and captured 10 Hamas fighters. Two Palestinians were reportedly killed.

ReutersWall Street Journal Washington Post Washington Post 

Third Aid Convoy Enters Gaza, WHO Says Nearly Two-Thirds of Territory’s Health System Not Functioning.  On Monday, a third aid delivery of food, water and medicine was allowed through the Rafah crossing from Egypt and into Gaza.  U.N. spokesperson Stephane Dujarric stated that a total of 54 trucks have been allowed into the Gaza Strip since Sunday.  U.N. officials added that fuel is still running low in the territory, as Israel is barring fuel deliveries over concerns that Hamas will divert them for military purposes.  The Gaza health ministry warns that electric generators in hospitals will cease functioning in 48 hours due to the fuel shortage.  The World Health Organization added that 46 of Gaza’s 72 healthcare facilities have ceased functioning.  Palestinian officials blamed the lack of electricity and damage from Israeli air strikes.  The U.N. warns that as many as 100 trucks daily would be needed to support the current population of Gaza. The U.N. is currently facilitating talks between Egypt, Israel, and the U.S. to create a more consistent delivery system and potentially allow for crucial fuel deliveries.  Reuters Associated Press ABC News Al Jazeera 

France’s Macron Visits Israel, Proposes Anti-ISIS Coalition Fight Hamas.  French President Emmanuel Macron arrived in Israel on Tuesday in a show of solidarity after the Hamas attacks.  Speaking alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem, Macron proposed that the U.S.-led international coalition fighting Islamic State in Iraq and Syria also fight Hamas in Gaza, though he did not elaborate further on how the alliance could get involved.  Netanyahu did not comment on the proposal but said the Israel-Hamas conflict is a battle between the “axis of evil” and “the free world.”  French presidential advisers said Macron is pushing for ways to prevent an escalation of the war, free hostages, guarantee Israel’s security, work towards a two-state solution, and facilitate a humanitarian truce.  He is set to meet Arab leaders in Jordan’s capital of Amman later Tuesday.  He will also meet Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah in the West Bank.  Reuters Bloomberg France 24 Al Jazeera 

Google Disables Traffic Views in Israel, Gaza.  Google parent company Alphabet Inc. announced that at the request of the Israeli military, it is blocking its Maps and Waze apps from providing live views of traffic conditions in Israel and Gaza.  Google released a statement saying that the company has disabled the features temporarily “out of consideration for the safety of local communities,” as it has done in previous conflict situations.  The development was first reported by the Israeli tech site GeekTime, which also said Apple Inc. also complied with the Israeli military’s request regarding its Maps app.  Bloomberg

As Many As 20,000 Lebanese Displaced by Border Clashes with Israel.  Fighting between Israeli forces and Hezbollah on the Israel-Lebanon border has forced almost 20,000 Lebanese citizens to flee north from their homes in southern Lebanon.  The Israeli government has also evacuated dozens of towns in northern Israel in response to the violence. The displacements come during a time of major economic instability in Lebanon.  Reuters Al Jazeera

U.S. Prepares for Possibility of Mass Evacuations.  U.S. officials familiar with the government’s contingency planning say the Biden administration is preparing for the possibility that hundreds of thousands of U.S. citizens will need to be evacuated from the Middle East if the Israel-Hamas conflict escalates.  Speaking on condition of anonymity, the officials said Americans living in Israel and Lebanon are of particular concern. They also said, however, that a major evacuation is a worst-case scenario. There were approximately 600,000 U.S. citizens in Israel and an estimated 86,000 believed to be in Lebanon at the start of the current hostilities October 7. The concern extends beyond those two countries, as officials are monitoring the street demonstrations that have spread throughout Arab nations in the region. Meanwhile, the Pentagon is preparing for the possibility of increased attacks on U.S. forces in the Middle East. Defense officials said they are sending additional missile defense systems to the region. It is unclear how often U.S. personnel have come under fire since the Hamas-Israel conflict began. Officials said the Pentagon is compiling a list of incidents, but a senior defense official said the effort has been hampered by “disinformation and misinformation.”  Washington Post

U.S. Intelligence Shows Iranian-Backed Groups Stepping Up Attacks on U.S. Forces.  The White House said Monday that Iran is “actively facilitating” rocket and drone attacks by proxy groups on U.S. military bases in Iraq and Syria and that President Joe Biden has directed the Pentagon to prepare for more and to respond appropriately.  White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said there has been an uptick in such attacks over the past few days, adding that Iran is closely monitoring these events “and in some cases, actively facilitating those attacks.” He said the U.S. will not “allow any threat to our interests in the region to go unchallenged.”  While the Pentagon has said Tehran has not given direct orders for these attacks, it has said Iran is ultimately responsible.  Reuters

U.S. Sends Top Military Officials and Marine Corps General to the Middle East. The Pentagon has sent several top military officials and a Marine Corps general specializing in urban warfare to the Middle East ahead of a potential Israeli ground invasion of Gaza. Marine Corps Lt. Gen. James Glynn, who assisted in missions against Islamic State in urban zones of conflict, has been sent in to advise the mitigation of civilian casualties, though the exact nature of his role is still unknown. On Monday, White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said that Glynn and others “have experience that is appropriate to the sorts of operations that Israel is conducting.”  Associated Press

Chinese Foreign Minister Calls On Israel to Protect Civilians in Gaza, Expresses Sympathy for Palestinians.  Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen in a phone call on Monday that every country has a right to self-defense, “but should abide by international humanitarian law and protect civilians.” He also said it is “imperative” that further escalation of the situation in Gaza be prevented. In a separate call, Wang told Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki that China “deeply sympathizes with the difficult situation of the Palestinian side,” especially the people of Gaza. He said China would continue to provide humanitarian assistance to Gazans. Wang’s remarks are in line with comments he made earlier this month, in which he said Israel’s actions in Gaza “have gone beyond self-defense.” The Gaza crisis is likely to be part of the agenda when Wang visits the U.S. for high-level meetings this week.  Bloomberg 

Former U.S. Army General Says Russia, Iran Orchestrating Israel-Hamas Conflict.  Former U.S. Army Europe commanding general Ben Hodges warned that Israeli troops face a difficult fight in any ground invasion of Gaza due to the urban warfare, Hamas’s familiarity of the battlefield, pressure to minimize civilian casualties and ambiguity in the mission to eliminate Hamas, which could require a months-long occupation.  He also said Israel faces the risk of “Iran opening another front” through Lebanon’s Hezbollah and in the West Bank.  Hodges said the ground invasion has not started either because Israeli forces are “not satisfied” with current conditions, meaning that they believe they have not destroyed enough of Hamas leadership and infrastructure with airstrikes, or because they are still conducting “intelligence preparation of the battlefield.”  He reiterated other expert assessments that a wider regional war is unlikely, arguing that Iran does not seek a direct conflict with the U.S.  He also said it was “prudent” for the deployment of more U.S. military assets to the region for deterrence and for potential contingencies, like the evacuations of civilians.  Regarding the impact of the Israel-Hamas conflict on the Ukraine war, Hodges asserted that the U.S. can both support Ukraine and Israel.  He also argued that the two incidents are not separate since Russia is the biggest beneficiary because Moscow is seeking to divert attention and resources from Ukraine and is cooperating with its “closest ally” Iran.  Deutsche Welle

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Russia Continues Avdiivka Assault.  Russian forces pursued attacks on two frontline areas in eastern Ukraine on Monday, seeking to sever the only supply route to the eastern town of Avdiivka and advance on the key city of Kupiansk. The General Staff of Ukraine’s armed forces said that its forces repelled approximately 10 Russian attacks on Avdiivka.  The head of Avdiivka’s military administration, Vitaly Barabash, said that there have been round-the-clock strikes on Avdiivka’s town center and on the only road being used to bring in supplies.  He added that about 1,600 residents remain in the town, down from the 30,000 pre-war population.  Concerning the eastern front, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of Ukrainian ground forces, described conditions as “challenging.”  He highlighted Bakhmut and Kupiansk as being the greatest difficulties.  Reuters

Ukraine Says 400,000 Russian Soldiers in Ukrainian Territory.  A spokesperson for Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) said on Monday that Russia currently has over 400,000 soldiers deployed in Ukrainian territory.  The spokesperson added that “new weapons are being decommissioned and delivered to the front” and that Russia continues mobilization campaigns.  Despite the “considerable number of personnel” currently in Ukraine, the spokesperson said it was unlikely that Russia would attempt to launch a winter offensive on the scale of its February 2022 offensive, saying that there will instead be separate offensive operations in “certain areas.”  Kyiv Independent

Russia Struggling to Conduct Effective Offensive Operations.  The U.K. Ministry of Defense reports that Russia is facing difficulty in producing combat infantry capable of performing successful offensive operations, due in part to its use of Shtorm-Z units, manned by both convicts and regular soldiers on discipline charges. The ministry said that Moscow likely first fielded the Shtorm-Z units in 2022 and potentially envisioned them as elite squads. However, the ministry says the units, which it refers to as penal battalions, are repeatedly ordered to conduct offensive operations but are not given priority for logistical or medical assistance.  The disconnect suggests Russia is facing difficulty in conducting effective offensive operations.  UK Ministry of Defense X

Zelensky Holds Call With Saudi Prince on Ukraine, Middle East.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky talked by telephone with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Monday to discuss ways to further develop ties between the two countries. Zelensky invited Saudi Arabia to send a representative to participate in the next round of Peace Formula talks in Malta this coming weekend. The talks follow similar meetings in Denmark in June and Saudi Arabia in August which focused on a 10-point plan that, among other things, calls for the full withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine. The two leaders also discussed the situation in the Middle East. Zelensky called for a de-escalation of the conflict and the prevention of civilian casualties.  Bloomberg

U.S. Seeking Confiscation of Russian Oligarch’s $300 Million Superyacht.  The U.S. Justice Department said on Monday that U.S. prosecutors filed a civil forfeiture lawsuit against the $300 million superyacht Amadea, which is beneficially owned by sanctioned Russian oligarch Suleyman Kerimov.  The yacht was seized by Fijian authorities in the spring of 2022 and is currently docked in San Diego, under the control of the U.S. government.  The U.S. is reportedly using the lawsuit to obtain ownership of the vessel so it can auction it and transfer the proceeds to Ukraine.  Kerimov was sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department in 2014 and 2018 for his role in Russian activities in Ukraine and Russia.  Kyiv Independent Reuters U.S. Department of Justice

Moldova, Romania to Hold Joint Military Exercises.  The Moldovan Defense Ministry announced on Monday that troops from Moldova and Romania will engage in international military training drills from October 23rd through November 3rd as part of Chișinău’s 2023 Joint Combined Exchange Training (JCET) program, which will be held at the nation’s National Army Military Training Base. The ministry said that the soldiers will practice firing infantry and artillery weapons, and “will carry out actions that train physical endurance and command skills.” Both Moldova and Romania have warily observed Russia’s threats of aggression as the war in Ukraine rages on. Kyiv Independent

Russia, Iran Fortify Ties in “Trusting” Environment as Lavrov Visits Tehran.  Moscow’s foreign ministry said Tuesday that Russia and Iran are strengthening bilateral relations in a “trusting atmosphere,” as Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was welcomed by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi during his trip to Tehran. The ministry said that the nations’ “bilateral agenda” was discussed in detail, with the goal of bolstering a “multifaceted Russian-Iranian partnership” in mind. Lavrov reportedly spoke with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian about energy and logistics projects, but few details were provided about the conversation. Lavrov also engaged in regional talks hosted by Iran concerning the dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Moscow and Tehran have sought to firm up relations in recent years, particularly since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.  The U.S. has expressed worries about their "burgeoning defense partnership" and the threat it poses.  Reuters

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Palestinians Claim Social Media Stifling Legitimate Content Through ‘Shadow-Banning’.  Amid the ongoing disruptions to electricity and Internet services, residents of Gaza report that their access to information is being further restricted by social media platforms that are “shadow banning” content, using algorithms to reduce its online presence or to flag it as inappropriate. Deborah Brown, a Human Rights Watch researcher and advocate, said these platform practices hamper communications among relatives and friends and also block “critical information about where to find medicine, food, safe passage, which are all critically limited.”  While “shadow banning” is hard to prove definitively, users report that Palestinian-related posts, including those that mention Gaza, receive unusually low view and engagement ratings.  Last week, Instagram apologized for inserting the word “terrorist” into automatically translated bios of Palestinian users.  An independent report on social media behavior during a period of high Israel-Palestinian tensions in 2021 concluded that Meta over-moderated content in Arabic, and under-moderated content in Hebrew.   User tips and tricks on how to circumvent moderation have now been circulated online, which includes adding stickers and polls, using symbols instead of letters (e.g., p@le$tine), and even incorporating hashtags that read #IStandWithIsrael.  Mona Shtaya, a fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy in the West Bank, says that while shadow-banning is not new, but appears as a “technical glitch” when hostilities occur, resulting in “a huge censorship of Palestinian content.” Meta did not respond to a request for comment.  Wired

Experts Consider Impact If Hezbollah Drone Forces Join Hamas-Israel Conflict.  Military analysts note the limited role of aerial drones in the Hamas-Israel conflict could change rapidly if Hezbollah was to bring its unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV’s) into the fray.  Hamas did make some use of armed drones to destroy Israeli surveillance and communications facilities, but they have been a comparatively minor combat element to date. The Hezbollah factor, however, could be a “game changer,” according to Jean Loup Samaan, a research fellow at the Middle East Institute of the National University of Singapore.  That is based, Samaan said, on “the quantity of its arsenal…but also its quality and diversity, be it drones and short-range ballistic missiles that Hamas does not have.”  While acknowledging Hamas’ limited drone capabilities, experts say Hezbollah bringing its larger missile and drone resources to the conflict would need to be considered in projecting the outcome of hostilities.  Andreas Krieg, senior lecturer at King’s College London, and CEO of MENA analytica, a London-based strategic risk consultancy firm, said that with the possibility of an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza, “Hezbollah is recalculating its risks and its objectives, and I would say that anything that can be done remotely from Lebanon without Hezbollah fighters being put in harm’s way and into combat is more likely.”  Krieg acknowledged that “Hezbollah drone technology is very sophisticated,” but noted that Israel’s counter-drone tech is “fairly sophisticated and they have been preparing for this.”  Hezbollah has paraded drones in public, including the Mirsad-1 with a 124-mile range; Ayoub, a Shahed-129 version with a range exceeding 1,000 miles; and an access to Iranian-made drones, like Karrar, Mohajer and Sammad.  BreakingDefense

Ukraine Security Service, Volunteer Hackers Breach Russia’s Largest Private Bank.  The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), along with Ukrainian hackers, worked together to hack Russia’s largest bank, according to an unidentified SBU source.  Two Ukranian hacker groups, KibOrg and NLB, last week said their breach of Alfa-Bank systems resulted in the extraction of customer data, including names, account numbers, and phone numbers.  The breach reportedly compromised the data of 30 million customers.  Alfa-Bank is owned by a Russian-Israeli billionaire, Mikhail Fridman, who is blacklisted by the U.S. and Europe.  The Ukrainian hackers posted some data online, including information about Fridman and his son, pro-Russian blogger Artemy Lebedev.  A SBU official confirmed that the security agency collaborated with the hacking groups but did not provide details.  According to the hackers, they plan to share the Alfa-Bank information with investigative journalists.  Alfa-Bank did not respond to a request for comment.  NLB hackers previously claimed responsibility for hacks of Russia's MTS Bank and Russia's largest state-owned bank, Sberbank.  The Record

ScaleAI CEO Seeks To Provide Pentagon with AI ‘Competitive Edge’ Over China.  According to ScaleAI CEO Alexandr Wang, “data is ultimately the ammunition of AI warfare,” and the U.S. is lagging behind in collecting and storing that resource.  Wang’s company contracted with the Pentagon last year to provide AI services and has secured individual contracts with the Army, Air Force, and Marine Corps University.  ScaleAI in May became the first vendor to deploy a large language model on a classified network.  The company’s chatbot, Donovan, was provided to the Army’s XVIII Airborne Corps to summarize intelligence and help commanders make decisions faster.  These and similar moves have positioned Scale, which Wang co-founded in 2016, to aggressively pitch itself as the company that will help the U.S. military in its high-stakes competition with China.  Among the goals the company has set out are assisting the DoD in extracting better insights from its substantial information holdings, building better autonomous vehicles, and developing chatbots to advise military commanders during on the battlefield.  Wang, who describes himself as a “China hawk,” says that without privately developed AI, the U.S. will not be able to sustain a technological edge over Beijing.  The company’s Donovan chatbot is undergoing testing by military units and students at the Marine Corps University to determine how it performs as an “AI-powered decision platform” that can process multi-source intelligence data and generate recommendations.  Washington Post

CISA Coordinating Federal, Industry Update to National Cyber Incident Response Plan.  A new version of the National Cyber Incident Response Plan (NCIRP) is under development by the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) working with industry stakeholders and government agencies.  An update to the plan, which frames national responses to significant cyber incidents, was specified in the 2023 National Cybersecurity Strategy.  CISA and the National Cyber Director’s office are coordinating input from regulators and critical infrastructure operators, among other contributors.  Eric Goldstein, CISA executive assistant director for cybersecurity explained the agency’s goal is “to provide an agile, actionable framework” for organizations involved in cyber incident responses “to ensure coherent coordination that matches the pace of our adversaries.”  According to CISA information, the updated plan is expected to be approved and published by the end of 2024.  CISA began stakeholder meetings in September and will continue holding listening sessions through November before shifting in December to writing the document in preparation to releasing it to the public for comment.  The Record

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

Asia and Oceania

China-US Economic Working Group Holds ‘Productive, Substantive’ First Meeting.  Chinese and U.S. financial officials at the deputy ministerial level held the first meeting of their Economic Working Group, after which both sides expressed satisfaction. The U.S. Treasury Department called the meeting “productive and substantive” and China’s Foreign Ministry said it was “in-depth, candid and constructive.” Treasury said the delegations covered topics including domestic and global macroeconomic developments during the two-hour meeting, and that U.S. officials “also frankly raised areas of concern.” James Chin, Professor of Asian Studies at the University of Tasmania in Australia, said the Economic Working Group probably discussed tech disputes “because China is angry” and wants to pressure Washington to remove barriers. Treasury also said an Economic Working Group, which was announced in September along with the Financial Working Group, will hold its first meeting tomorrow.  South China Morning Post Reuters

Pentagon Seeking to Strengthen Dialogue with China, Plans to Send Officials to Xiangshan Security Forum.  Michael Chase, the deputy assistant secretary of defense for China, said Monday that the U.S. Defense Department seeks to bolster military communication with China by taking advantage of at least two events that both American and Chinese officials will be attending, including the China-hosted Xiangshan security forum next week. Chase said that the Pentagon is planning on sending “participants at a level that’s consistent with what we’ve done in the past,” though he did not provide any names. According to a Tuesday report by Chinese state-backed outlet China Daily, the American delegation will be led by Xanthi Carras, the principal director in the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China, Taiwan and Mongolia.  The state-backed outlet added that Chad Sbragia, Chase’s predecessor in the Trump administration, will attend as a panel expert. The assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs, Ely Ratner, said that the White House hopes to restart military dialogue with Beijing as regional tensions rise and China increasingly attempts to “drive the U.S. out” of the East and South China seas. He added that he looks forward to the opportunity to expand communication next month at the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting-Plus (ADMM-Plus) in Jakarta. South China Morning Post

Taiwan VP Criticizes Reported Chinese Investigation of Foxconn.  Taiwanese Vice President William Lai criticized China’s reported investigation of Taiwan’s Foxconn, a key supplier for Apple.  China’s state-backed outlet Global Times reports that Foxconn is facing a tax probe and land use probe.  Sources said the investigations may be linked to Foxconn’s founder Terry Gou running as an independent candidate in Taiwan’s January elections.  The Global Times said that by running, Gou could split the opposition vote, helping Lai, who Beijing views as an independence-seeking separatist.  Lai said China should not target Foxconn and should instead “cherish and treasure” Taiwanese companies, warning that it will be a great loss to Beijing if they feel threatened and leave China.  Chinese authorities have not confirmed the investigation, and Gou has not commented on the reported probe.  Taiwan frequently accuses China of exerting pressure to influence the island’s elections.  Reuters 

Thailand Considers Chinese Frigate Over Submarine.  Thailand’s defense minister said that the Thai government could still buy a Chinese frigate instead of a submarine after the Chinese manufacturer providing the vessel was unable to source a German engine specified for the submarine in the original deal.  Thailand already paid a 7 billion baht ($193 million) payment to China for the purchase of one Yuan Class S26T submarine but the deal was delayed when Germany barred the use of its engines for Chinese military exports. China proposed replacing the German engines with Chinese-made equipment but negotiations did not yield results. At the Belt and Road Summit last week, the new Thai government said that it would like to buy a frigate instead of a submarine.  Reuters

South Korea Detains Boat Suspected to Have North Korean Defectors.  South Korea's military on Tuesday detained a boat reportedly carrying North Koreans believed to be seeking to defect. The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff said that a small, wooden vessel was stopped near the South’s eastern city of Sokcho near the Northern Limit Line, the de facto sea border between the two countries. The military did not specify how many people were aboard, but the Yonhap news agency said that there were four North Koreans on the vessel that expressed intent to defect. This is the second case in recent months of North Koreans seeking defection by crossing the sea border. Most North Korean defectors make their way through China and Southeast Asia.  Reuters

The Americas

Kenya Court Extends Bar on Haiti Task Force.  A Kenyan court extended an order Tuesday barring the deployment of hundreds of Kenyan police officers to Haiti on a U.N. mission aimed at tackling gang violence. In July, Kenya had offered 1,000 officers to help restore peace in the country. However, the plan was delayed by a court order after a petition was brought by an opposition party claiming that deploying police abroad was illegal. A U.N. report released last week warned that Haitian gangs are getting stronger, wealthier, and better equipped.  Reuters

Armed Gunmen in Mexico’s South Ambush, Kill 13 Police Officers.  A state government official told Reuters that armed gunmen in Mexico’s southern Guerrero state ambushed police officers in a deadly attack on Monday that left 13 local law enforcement agents dead.  Both the security chief for the town of Coyuca de Benitez, which lies west of Acapulco, as well as the director of police were killed in the attack. State authorities said Monday that security forces would be bolstered by the navy and National Guard agents, but did not provide a number of how many officers had been killed. The source said that before the surprise assault, police officers were sent to respond to a report of firearm explosions. The state of Guerrero has been plagued with gang violence as cartels struggle for control of drug trafficking, and almost 1,100 people have been murdered in the first nine months of this year. New York Times Reuters 

Africa

U.S. Officially Concludes Coup Occurred in Gabon.  The U.S. State Department said Monday that it officially concluded that a military coup took place in Gabon. Additionally, the State department said that it was suspending most U.S. assistance to the country, though humanitarian, health, and education aid will continue. On August 30, Gabon army officers seized power minutes after an election announcement saying incumbent President Ali Bongo had won. Bongo, who was in power since 2009, succeeded his father Omar Bongo, who ruled the country for 42 years. The military junta promised to oversee free and fair elections but has not said when such elections might take place. Junta-appointed Prime Minister Raymond Ndong Sima was quoted as saying that a 24-month transition to elections would be “reasonable” after the coup.  Reuters

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