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10:00 AM ET, Tuesday, October 17, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

TOP STORIES

Putin Travels to China for Belt and Road Forum. Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Beijing on Tuesday to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping and attend the Belt and Road Forum.  It is Putin’s second foreign trip since the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest.  In an interview with Chinese state media, Putin said he and Xi will discuss China and Russia’s economic ties in energy, high-tech and finance.  He also praised China’s Belt and Road projects as a massive effort for global “cooperation” and called China’s economic influence in Central Asia as a “certain synergy” with Moscow.  Experts say that while China and Russia are unlikely to establish a fully-fledged military alliance during Putin’s visit, he and Xi will likely agree to strengthen defense cooperation.  Analysts say the two leaders will also likely discuss nuclear cooperation and the building of the Power of Siberia-2 natural gas pipeline.  Separately, Putin met with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Beijing and agreed to maintain ties.  Associated Press South China Morning Post Bloomberg 

Chinese Military Plane Intercepts Canadian Surveillance Plane Enforcing North Korea Sanctions. A Canadian military surveillance plane flying over international waters off the coast of China was intercepted by Chinese fighter jets, according to a statement by Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair, who called the move dangerous and reckless. The Canadian plane was part of a UN operation enforcing sanctions against North Korea, according to the statement.  Despite it being a fairly common occurrence for China to interact with planes on UN Missions, Blair says that this incident put the Canadian aircraft and crew on board at risk, noting that a Chinese jet flew within 16 feet of the Canadian aircraft.  China’s foreign ministry lodged a protest with Canada over the incident, saying that the Canadian plane violated China’s sovereignty and national security by entering the airspace of an island affiliated with the Diaoyu Islands — islands claimed by Beijing but controlled by Japan, which calls them the Senkaku Islands.  CBC The Guardian Bloomberg Reuters

ISRAEL HAMAS WAR

Biden to Visit Israel as Gaza Humanitarian Crisis Worsens.  President Joe Biden announced will travel to Israel on Wednesday in a show of support amid its war with Hamas. In a post on the social media platform X, Biden said he then will go on to Jordan to meet with King Abdullah, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, to discuss humanitarian needs in Gaza and “make clear that Hamas does not stand for Palestinians’ right to self-determination.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken added that Biden wants to hear from Israel “what it needs to defend its people” and how Israel plans to conduct operations “in a way that minimizes civilian casualties and enables humanitarian assistance to flow” in Gaza without benefiting Hamas.  Blinken added that he and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to develop a plan to get such aid to civilians in Gaza, but did not elaborate.  Biden’s visit comes as Israel continues air strikes on Gaza and prepares an expected ground offensive into the territory.  Gaza’s Ministry of Health says Israeli air raids in southern Gaza killed over 70 people.  Authorities say Israeli attacks on Gaza have killed over 2,800 people.  The Hamas attacks killed at least 1,400 people in Israel.  Al Jazeera Reuters Wall Street Journal Associated Press

Senior U.S. General Visits Israel.  U.S. Central Command chief Gen. Michael Kurilla made an unannounced visit on Tuesday to Israel, where he said he hopes to ensure that the Israeli military has everything it needs to fight its war with Hamas.  Kurilla said he also is focused on preventing “other parties” from expanding the conflict.  The visit comes in advance of an expected Israeli ground assault in Gaza.  His visit also comes after a U.S. official said on Monday that as many as 2,000 American troops have been told to be ready to deploy within 24 hours to provide support such as medical assistance.  Meanwhile, Secretary of State Antony Blinken held several hours of talks with the Israeli war cabinet.  Those discussions were interrupted and Blinken was escorted to a bunker for several minutes when air raid sirens sounded.  Reuters The Hill

Iranian Leaders Escalate Anti-Israel Rhetoric.  Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Israel must cease what he called its “genocide of Palestinians in Gaza,” state TV reported today. Meanwhile, the Fars news agency reported that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Deputy Commander-in-Chief Ali Fadavi warned that militant groups backed by Tehran could take further action if Israel does not cease its attacks.  Fadavi went further, saying the fight against Israel will continue until it is “eradicated from the world map.”  Reuters Wall Street Journal

Israel Says Four Suspected Attackers Killed Attempting to Cross from Lebanon.  The Israeli military said on Tuesday that it killed four people attempting to cross the border from Lebanon to plant explosives.  The military did not specify where the attempted infiltration occurred, though a security source in Lebanon reported gunfire in Metula and Hezbollah-run TV reported Israeli shelling in the same area.  Israeli forces and Lebanon’s Hezbollah have exchanged fire across the Israel-Lebanon border since the Hamas attacks, raising fears of a wider conflict.  Israel has said it is not seeking a war with Hezbollah but maintains that it is prepared and deployed at the border if fighting escalates.  Israel has also evacuated civilians close to the border with Lebanon.  Beirut has called for calm, warning that Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon are escalating tensions.  Reuters France 24

Hamas Says Seeking Release of Palestinian Prisoners.  Top Hamas official Khaled Meshaal claimed on Monday that the militant group has “what it needs” to free Palestinian prisoners currently in Israeli jails, possibly suggesting that Hamas seeks to use Israelis it is holding hostage as bargaining tools in the release of prisoners. The group later clarified that non-Israelis were only “guests” and would be released “when circumstances allow,” as opposed to Israelis held as political prisoners.  The last prisoner exchange, which took place in 2011, saw the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for a single Israeli soldier.  A prisoner release has reportedly been a top priority of Hamas since their rise to power in 2007.  Multiple countries worldwide have claimed to have missing or unaccounted-for citizens after the latest kidnappings by Hamas fighters.  Reuters

UN Says Israeli Siege and Evacuation Order Could Violate International Law.  The U.N. human rights office said on Tuesday that Israel’s siege of Gaza and its evacuation order for northern Gaza could violate international law. U.N. spokesperson Ravina Shamdasani told reporters in Geneva that the office is concerned that the order combined with the siege may not be considered a “lawful temporary evacuation” but rather a “forcible transfer of civilians.” Shamdasani also said that Israel seems to have made no effort to ensure that evacuated civilians are provided with proper accommodations and adequate hygiene, nutrition, health and safety measures. In separate comments, World Food Program Regional Communications Lead for the Middle East and North Africa Abeer Etefa said the WFP’s food supplies in Gaza are running low but that it is stockpiling supplies in the Egyptian city of Al-Arish and that the organization hopes to cross into Gaza “as soon as border access is granted.”  Reuters

Russia Resolution for UN Security Council Action on Israel-Hamas War Fails.  A U.N. Security Council resolution proposed by Russia, which called for an immediate ceasefire between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza, as well as access for humanitarian aid, evacuation of civilians, and the release of hostages, was rejected on Monday. The resolution included no mention of the terror organization Hamas.  The nations of China, United Arab Emirates, Gabon, and Mozambique voted in favor of the resolution, while the U.S., France, Japan, and Britain voted against it and six other countries abstained.  After the vote, Russian Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia said that “the council once again has found itself a hostage to the selfish intentions of the Western bloc of countries.” U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield countered that the resolution failed to criticize Hamas, allowing Moscow to give “cover to a terrorist group that brutalizes innocent civilians.” Palestinian U.N. ambassador Riyad Mansour, citing the deaths of Palestinian civilians, called on the council to take action.  Reuters Associated Press

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukrainian Forces Repelling Russians from Key Eastern City after Days-Long Siege.  Ukraine’s military said on Monday that it is repelling Russian forces from the eastern city of Avdiivka.  Russia has launched a days-long offensive on the town in the eastern Donetsk region.  Ukraine’s General Staff reports that in a span of 24 hours, Russia launched 15 separate attacks on the town, down from the over 60 attacks a day Russian forces launched on the settlement last week.  Officials said the development shows that Russian efforts to capture the town are “deflating.”  The Institute for the Study of War supported this assessment in a report on Sunday, saying, “Russian forces continued offensive operations aimed at encircling Avdiivka … but have yet to make further gains amid a likely decreasing tempo of Russian operations in the area.” Associated Press Wall Street Journal 

Ukraine Reports Strikes on Russian Airfields Near Luhansk, Berdiansk.  Ukraine’s military said on Tuesday that it successfully struck Russian airfields and military equipment, including helicopters, in overnight attacks near the occupied cities of Luhansk and Berdiansk.  Vladimir Rogov, a Russian-installed official in the Zaporizhzia region, claimed that the Ukrainian attack near Berdiansk was repelled by Russian air defenses.  Reuters could not immediately confirm either of the claims.  Reuters 

U.S. Raises Concern Over Reports of North Korea Sending Weapons to Russia.  U.S. Special Representative to North Korea Sung Kim said Tuesday that relations between North Korea and Russia were “very worrying” after the White House accused Pyongyang of recently providing Russia with shipments of weapons.  Kim called such shipments “dangerous” and “destabilizing” and said the U.S. will continue to counter Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear programs.  North Korean leader Kim Jong Un made a rare trip to Russia last month to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, stoking concerns that North Korea could supply military equipment to support Russia’s military in Ukraine in exchange for missile technology.  South Korean nuclear envoy Kim Gunn condemned such a cooperation and labeled it a “blatant” violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions.  Moscow has denied that it is receiving arms from North Korea.  Separately, In a further sign of trilateral cooperation, the United States, South Korea, and Japan have reportedly completed work on a three-way communications hotline.  Reuters

CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Global Race To Build Commercial Satellite Services, Including Military Support.  One issue under close scrutiny in the Pentagon is whether there are alternatives to Starlink in the commercial satellite sector that can offer high-volume satellite communications services to support data-dense military battle management networks.  Brian Weeden of the Secure World Foundation, which promotes collaborative approaches to space sustainability, said the question of commercial options is “the big thing here, and not just for DoD.”  On October 6, Amazon launched the first two prototype satellites in its planned Project Kuiper broadband constellation.  Amazon plans to place 3,236 satellites in orbit to provide global connectivity, with half the constellation operational by the end of 2026.  The Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) is examining Project Kuiper’s potential to be part of a “hybrid architecture” linking government and commercial satellite communications networks.  DIU is collaborating with the Space Force, the Space Warfighting Analysis Center (SWAC), and Air Force Research Laboratory along with eight companies.  For p-LEO coverage and broadband capacity, Starlink’s largest existing competitor is OneWeb, which recently was acquired by the Eutelsat telecommunications conglomerate and operates a constellation on orbit at 1200 km, compared with the Starlink network at a 550 km orbit.  OneWeb focuses on a business-to-business model, selling services to distributors who then strike deals with users, focusing on governments and military organizations.  Kevin Steen, CEO of OneWeb Technologies, noted that his firm “was built from the ground floor up to meet or exceed the US DoD requirements.”  OneWeb participates in the U.S. Space Force five-year indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity (IDIQ) contract vehicle to acquire services from commercial operators in low Earth orbit.  At present, however, SpaceX is the only firm to have an actual tasking order for services from the U.S. military for a military-oriented version of Starlink called Starshield.  In addition to the Starlink, OneWeb, and Amazon satellite programs, efforts are under way in China, Taiwan, Canada and Germany to develop Internet-delivering satellite constellations.  BreakingDefense Wall Street Journal Bloomberg

Ukraine Reports Russian Sandworm Compromises of Telecommunications Systems.  The Russian-sponsored hacking group Sandworm disrupted eleven Ukrainian telecommunications providers over a five-month period extending into September.  A report from Ukraine’s Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-UA) said the Russian group’s system compromises resulted in interruptions of telecommunications systems and may have caused data breaches.  After monitoring telecommunications networks and conducting scans, the Sandworm attackers sought out open ports or unprotected interfaces.  Network access also has been attempted through compromised VPN accounts unprotected by multi-factor authentication.  The threat actors use a variety of previously compromised proxy servers within the Ukrainian Internet region to mask their activity.  Two backdoor malwares have been discovered in compromised ISP’s, Poemgate and Poseidon, which specialize in credential capture and remote control operations, respectively.  Final stages of Sandworm attacks have involved the deployment of scripts causing service disruptions, particularly on Mikrotik equipment, and backup erasures to complicate recovery efforts.  BleepingComputer

Wall Street Journal Analyzes Crypto Exchange Role in Terrorist, Criminal Finances.  Garantex, a Moscow-based crypto exchange sanctioned last year by the U.S., is still conducting a robust business, including handling digital wallets controlled by Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which received a portion of $93 million through the exchange.  In addition, Garantex reportedly has become a key resource for Russians to move money in and out of the country as well as for Russian cybercriminals to launder profits.  The U.S. Treasury reported last year that gaps in financial crime controls at crypto exchanges permit terrorist groups to misuse them, a view echoed by Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant who said the use of digital currencies is complicating the task of stopping terrorist financing.   Garantex customer transactions in July totaled around $865 million, more than triple what it processed when it was sanctioned last year.  The Bank of Russia has described crypto as “an alternative method” to settle transactions and transfer funds, a weakness in the Treasury Department sanctions program, which extends to over 80 percent of the Russian banking sector.  According to The Wall Street Journal, the Treasury Department is closely monitoring Garantex as it collaborates with partners to shut it down as a conduit for payments.  An official told the Journal that the department is considering additional action against clients that use Garantex for cross-border transactions.  Garantex communications director Evgenia Burova said the exchange has zero tolerance for money laundering and used what she called state-of-the-art Russian-made compliance software.  According to Burova, “we are a leader in one dimension only: cryptocurrency trades vs. the Russian ruble.”  Wall Street Journal

Cisco Reports Highest Level Vulnerability in Internet-Facing Router Software.  The highest severity vulnerability rating, 10, has been attached to a Cisco software flaw that potentially extends “full administrator privileges” to intrusions against targeted routers.  Cisco’s Talos security team said the vulnerability in IOS XE software impacts both physical and virtual devices running the program.  In the absence of a workaround or patch so far, Cisco is urging customers to disable the HTTP Server feature on all internet-facing systems.  Cisco researchers saw activity related to the issue last Thursday, noting it has dealt with a “very small number of cases out of our normal substantial daily case volume.”  The Cisco team believes a threat actor initially tested code in September, with a later incident in October indicating an expanded effort “to include establishing persistent access via deployment of the implant.”  Cisco advises that product users should monitor “unexplained or newly created users on devices as evidence of potentially malicious activity relating to this threat.”  The Record

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

U.S. Signs New Deal with Marshall Islands.  U.S. negotiator Joseph Yun told Reuters on Monday that the U.S. has signed a 20-year agreement to provide $2.3 billion worth of economic assistance over the next 20 years to the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). He said the funds will be spent in such areas as education, healthcare, the environment and infrastructure. The deal is seen as part of a U.S. attempt to counter China’s influence in the Northern Pacific region. The Biden Administration reached similar agreements with Palau and Micronesia earlier this year. Yun said the next step is for Congress to approve the three Compacts of Free Association (COFA) agreements, totaling $7.1 billion.  Reuters

Fiji Says Will Strengthen Defense Cooperation with Australia.  Fiji’s Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka said on Tuesday that Fiji will strengthen defense and security cooperation with Australia. In a meeting with Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles in Canberra, Rabuka said Fiji and Australia should bolster cooperation in security intelligence, cyber security, defense and police cooperation to address global threats.  Rabuka noted that the two countries already cooperate on border and maritime security.  He also said a policing agreement between Fiji and China has been put “on hold “ due to “differences in our system of policing, investigations and our legal system.”  His visit comes amid escalating competition in the Indo-Pacific region between China and the U.S. and its partners.  Reuters

Chinese, Japanese Ships Face-Off Near Disputed Islands.  Both China and Japan reported Tuesday that their coast guard ships faced off in waters around disputed islands in the East China Sea.  Japan controls the islands, which it calls the Senkaku Islands, and they are also claimed by China, which calls them the Diaoyu Islands.  China said that it had driven away Japanese vessels that had “illegally” entered Chinese territorial waters Monday. The Japanese Coast Guard said in a press release that it had ordered two Chinese coast guard vessels to leave the same waters and maneuvered its ships to block them from approaching Japanese fishing boats.  Reuters

China Tightens Curbs on Foreign Travel by State Workers.  Beijing is tightening restrictions on travel by Chinese government workers and employees of businesses linked to the state, and the government is also increasing its scrutiny of their foreign connections, according to official notices and more than a dozen people interviewed by Reuters. Current and former employees said measures imposed since 2021 have included bans on overseas travel, more limits on the frequency and duration of trips, more difficult approval processes, and pre-departure confidentiality training. Reuters cited two experts who say the actions reflect President Xi Jinping’s focus on national security amid increased tensions with the West. Neil Thomas, a fellow of Chinese politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis in Washington, said Beijing is “increasingly paranoid about the threat of espionage” by the West, and that Xi also wants his people to “look inward for ideas” rather than to the West.  Reuters

Suspected Gunman in Brussels Terror Attack Killed.  The Tunisian gunman suspected of killing two Swedes in Brussels died Tuesday after being shot by police in a cafe. The attacker claimed responsibility for the attack and to be a member of Islamic State in a video posted to social media.  After the attack, Brussels raised its terrorism alert to its highest level, and Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson called for Europe to bolster its security to protect itself.  Reuters BBC Associated Press Euronews

Azerbaijan to Host Joint Military Exercises with Turkey.  Azerbaijan said Tuesday that it will host military exercises with Turkey next week.  Azerbaijan’s defense ministry said the drills will mark the centenary of the Turkish republic and will take place in different regions, including the capital Baku, the region of Nakhchivan, and other areas recently seized from ethnic Armenian control.  Nakhchivan borders Turkey and Iran but is geographically separated from mainland Azerbaijan by Armenia.  Last month, Azerbnaijani President Ilham Aliyev hosted talks with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan where he received Erdogan’s support for the prospect of creating a land corridor between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan through southern Armenia, which strongly opposes the idea.  Reuters

UN Nuclear Chief Says World Cannot Fail in Iran as it Did in North Korea.  U.N. nuclear watchdog head Rafael Grossi said Monday that the world cannot fail in Iran as it did in North Korea, which succeeded in developing nuclear weapons after expelling International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors. In 2009, Pyongyang dismissed IAEA inspectors, forcing the agency to survey the North’s nuclear progression through satellite imagery. Though the IAEA can still access Iran’s nuclear sites, it currently cannot conduct unexpected inspections at undeclared facilities due to the breakdown of the 2015 nuclear deal.  Speaking at the annual U.S. State Department arms control conference, Grossi said the agency is “the eyes and ears and presence of the international community in Iran," and called on the IAEA to “deploy every effort to prevent” Tehran from advancing in nuclear weapons development. Iran denies it is seeking a nuclear weapon.  Reuters

Canada Says Military Ties with India Unchanged.  Canadian Pacific Fleet Commander Commodore David Mazur told reporters in Singapore on Monday that military cooperation between Canada and India has not been affected by the controversy over the killing of Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijar in Canada, which Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has claimed was orchestrated by New Delhi. Mazur said he had “friendly meetings” with Indian officials on the sidelines of a maritime conference in Sri Lanka last week and continued those discussions in Singapore. Canada recently made public its intention to enhance its presence in the Indo-Pacific, including increased ties with India.  Bloomberg

Colombia Decrees Three-Month Ceasefire, Initiates Peace Talks with ex-FARC Insurgents.  The Colombian government on Monday announced a three-month armistice with the nation’s biggest group of dissident former FARC rebels, the Estado Mayor Central (EMC), to start peace talks aimed at ending an almost six-decade internal conflict.  The Colombian government’s high peace commissioner Danilo Rueda did not explain why the ceasefire is less than the 10 months originally proposed by both sides of the conflict, but Camilo Gonzales, a government delegate, said that officials sought to extend the deadline as part of partial, immediate agreements on the path towards a final deal.  EMC delegate Andrey Avendaño confirmed the agreement and urged for social-economic as well as environmental protections.  The administration of Colombian President Gustavo Petro is currently engaged in peace talks with the National Liberation Army (ELN) and seeks to do the same with the dissident organization Segunda Marquetalia.  ABC News Reuters

OPINION

Nuclear Testing Bans Have Made Us Forget the Horror of Nuclear War.  Cipher Brief Senior National Security Columnist Walter Pincus writes that nuclear test ban treaties — including the Limited Test Ban Treaty, which banned atmospheric testing of nuclear weapons in 1963, and the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty, which instituted a complete testing moratorium in 1992 — have had unintended perverse effects.  Without testing, the public has forgotten the destructive power of nuclear weapons, which were previously seen through both news coverage of tests and their human health impacts.  Pincus argues that art can be used as a substitute to remind the public today about nuclear horrors.  He highlights the movie “The Day After,” which portrays a U.S.-Soviet nuclear exchange, as an effective form of media for demonstrating the destructive consequences of using nuclear weapons.  Washington Post

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