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10:00 AM ET, Tuesday, July 25, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

White House Says It Does Not Support Ukrainian Attacks Inside Russia.  White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters on Monday that the U.S. does not support Ukraine launching attacks “inside of Russia.”  However, she added that Russia “started” the Ukraine war and “they can end it at any time by withdrawing forces from Ukraine instead of launching brutal attacks on civilians.”  Her comments came after two drones from Ukraine damaged buildings in central Moscow earlier on Monday.  Although no one was injured in the attacks, the drones struck two buildings near the Russian Defense Ministry’s headquarters, marking the most high-profile attack on the Russian capital since an earlier drone attack on the Kremlin in May.  Moscow has called the drone strikes a brazen act of terror and has vowed to retaliate harshly against Ukraine.  A senior Ukrainian official said that there would be more attacks.  Western countries have been hesitant to give Ukraine some long-range weapons over concerns that Kyiv will use them to strike Russian territory.  Al Jazeera Reuters

U.S. Has Had No ‘Substantive’ Contact with North Korea Since Soldier Crossed Border.  U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told journalists Monday that the U.S. has not engaged in any substantive communication with North Korea since U.S. Army private Travis King crossed the inter-Korean border last week.  Miller reported that Washington has not received any response from Pyongyang despite attempts to acquire info on the soldier’s safety and location.  UN officials say they are attempting to communicate with Pyongyang about King’s whereabouts.  Reuters NBC News

U.S. Chip Industry to Be Short 67,000 Workers by 2030.  A new study from the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) and Oxford Economics found that the U.S. semiconductor industry may be short around 67,000 workers by 2030.  The study says that the chip industry workforce is set to grow to around 460,000 by then due to industry expansion from CHIPS Act support, but with current graduation rates, the U.S. will not produce enough computer scientists, technicians and engineers to match this increase.  The report adds that more widely in the STEM field, the U.S. may have 1.4 million vacant positions by the end of 2023.  Bloomberg Reuters

Department of Justice Sues Texas over Floating Border Barriers.  The U.S. Department of Justice on Monday filed a lawsuit against Texas over floating barriers installed by the state in the Rio Grande in an effort to block migrants crossing from Mexico. Texas authorities began installing the buoys last week as part of Governor Greg Abbott’s ‘Operation Lone Star’ initiative to deter migrants from illegally entering the U.S. Assistant Attorney General Vanita Gupta said “we allege that Texas has flouted federal law by installing a barrier in the Rio Grande without obtaining the required federal authorization” and that “this floating barrier poses threats to navigation and public safety and presents humanitarian concerns”. Mexico has also voiced concerns over the floating barriers saying that they violate a water treaty and might encroach into Mexican territory. The suit filed by the DOJ aims to “remove all structures and obstructions, including a floating barrier and all infrastructure related to the floating barrier, in the Rio Grande”. Last week, the U.S. Attorney for the Western District of Texas had threatened to take legal action against Abbott over the floating barriers. In response, Abbott sent a letter to U.S. President Joe Biden accusing him of failing to enforce immigration laws causing “a record-breaking level of illegal immigration”.  Associated Press Politico Reuters

Ecuador’s President Declares State of Emergency and Curfew.  Ecuadorian President Guillermo Lasso on Monday declared night curfews and a 60-day state of emergency in three coastal regions after a rash of violence over the weekend that killed at least eight people.  The violence included the murder of the mayor of the city of Manta and hostage situations in two prisons involving over 90 guards.  The state of emergency covers the city of Duran, close to Guayaquil, and the provinces of Manabi and Los Rios.  Lasso has regularly been forced to declare states of emergency as Ecuador struggles with violence and prison riots involving gangs and organized crime elements.  The UN and the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights have voiced concerns about the violence in Ecuadorian prisons, which has risen since 2021 and killed at least 400 people.  Reuters CNN

U.S. Presses Guatemala to Hold “Free and Fair” Presidential Elections.  Senior U.S. Department of State official Brian Nichols said Monday that he had conversations with Guatemalan Foreign Minister Mario Bucaro to emphasize the importance of holding a “free and fair” run-off in the Central American country’s upcoming presidential election.  Nichols said he had stressed the necessity of proceeding “without interference or harassment of candidates and parties,” in reference to a recent police raid against the party of opposition candidate Bernardo Arevalo.  A senior official from the Biden administration said that the raid represented "authoritarian practices."  The official also said that the U.S. would invite Arevalo and his competitor, ex-first lady Sandra Torres, to Washington this week.  Reuters

Western Europe

Germany Pledges 20 Billion Euros for Chip Industry.  The German economy ministry announced on Tuesday that Germany is investing around 20 billion euros ($22.15 billion) in its domestic semiconductor industry by 2027.  Sources say the funding will come from the Climate and Transformation Fund.  Around 10 billion euros of the aid will go towards a new plant for Intel Corp.  About 7 billion euros of the aid will be awarded to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) and Germany’s Infineon Technologies AG.  The at least 3 billion remaining euros will go to other companies and projects.  The chip subsidies add to Western efforts to lessen dependence on Asia for semiconductor supply chains.  Bloomberg Reuters

EU Planning Sudan Sanctions Framework.  The EU is reportedly working on a dedicated sanctions framework to target key actors involved in the ongoing civil war in Sudan.  Diplomatic sources say that a proposal document is being circulated between member states and that the plan is to finalize the framework by September to identify individuals and companies to sanction.  The EU has already sanctioned Russia’s Wagner Group, including its operations in Sudan and two gold companies.  Sudan’s army is supported by Islamist loyalists of ousted Sudanese autocrat Omar al-Bashir, while the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is linked to Saudi Arabia and the UAE.  RSF head General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, also draws wealth from gold mines in Darfur.  Reuters

Central and Eastern Europe

Russia Assaults Kyiv in Drone Attacks.  Russia attacked Kyiv and central and northern Ukraine with drone strikes early on Tuesday.  An Ukrainian air force spokesperson said that "about 10 drones were recorded” in the attack and that up to five were destroyed.  The chief of Kyiv’s military administration, Serhiy Popko, said Ukrainian forces shot down all drones launched at the Ukrainian capital.  Ruslan Kravchenko, Kyiv regional governor, said falling debris set off a blaze in a field, but there were no reports of damage or casualties.  Regional officials elsewhere said that one drone was downed in both the central Poltava and northern Sumy regions, and two drones fell in fields and another in an empty hangar in Cherkasy.  Officials added that an unspecified infrastructure object was struck in the north’s Zhytomyr region.  Separately, officials reported a Russian shelling attack on the town of Kostiantynivka in the eastern Donetsk region killed two people and injured seven others on Monday.  CNN Reuters

Ukraine Claims Small Advances Against Russia.  The Ukrainian military on Tuesday reported modest progress in southern Ukraine and near Bakhmut. Andriy Kovaliov, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff, reported that Ukrainian soldiers had advanced towards the southeastern settlement of Staromayorske, near villages reclaimed by Kyiv in June in the Donetsk region. He said that Ukrainian troops were reinforcing the positions they had captured and fighting against fortified Russian defenses.  He added that Ukrainian troops in the east had driven back Russian forces from positions close to the village of Andriivka, southwest of Bakhmut and that offensive operations continued north and south of the decimated city.  Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar added that Ukrainian troops have retaken over 12 square kilometers (4.6 miles) of territory in the last week.  More widely, she said Ukraine has liberated over 192 square kilometers (74 miles) of land in the south since the start of the counteroffensive.  Reuters The Guardian

Russia Claims Defense Against Drone Attack on Black Sea Fleet Ship.  The Russian defense ministry claimed that its forces destroyed two unmanned Ukrainian boats that targeted a patrol ship from its Black Sea fleet.  The ministry said that the ship, the Sergey Kotov, fired standard weapons to defend itself and destroyed the Ukrainian drone boats at a distance of 800 meters to 1000 meters.  The ministry added that there were no casualties, and that the Sergey Kotov continues its tasks.  The Guardian

Asia and Oceania

China Replaces Foreign Minister Following Mysterious Absence.  China’s top legislative body removed foreign minister Qin Gang from his post on Tuesday, one month after his sudden disappearance from public view.  The National People’s Congress Standing Committee reappointed Qin’s predecessor, Wang Yi, as his replacement.  Chinese state media said that Chinese President Xi Jinping authorized the decision, but there were no details on why Qin, who was appointed foreign minister in December, was replaced.  Experts say that the shakeup will not significantly impact China’s diplomatic activities since Wang remains China’s top diplomat and has been standing in for Qin at foreign minister level meetings in recent weeks.  However, experts say the reappointment of Wang, rather than the promotion of a vice minister, suggests the change is an interim decision, further emphasizing how little is known about Qin’s status and China’s internal politics as a whole.  Al Jazeera Bloomberg Financial Times New York Times Nikkei Asia Reuters

China Ahead of U.S. on Rapid Satellite Launch Capabilities.  A report from the Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) at Georgetown University has found that China has likely surpassed the U.S. in its ability to rapidly launch and replace satellites, putting Beijing ahead in a key component of space resilience.  The report says that this is due to China’s advancements in the critical capability known as tactically responsive space launch (TRSL), which essentially means the ability to launch satellites on short notice.  China is strong in this area due to its development of small, mobile, solid-fuel rockets that can launch from mobile platforms.  In contrast, the U.S. has only performed one state demonstration of TSRL, with the second test planned for later this year, and has only two solid-fuel rockets, neither of which can be launched from mobile platforms.  The report notes that the U.S. has put relatively little funding towards developing quick launch vehicles, allocating $50 million to such research in 2022 and the same again this year, and suggests stronger cooperation with private companies on relevant technologies and vehicles for TRSL.  However, despite the TSRL gap, the report says that the U.S. still remains ahead in most space measures.  South China Morning Post

Japan, China, South Korea to Resume Trilateral Dialogue.  Japanese foreign minister Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Tuesday that Japan and China have agreed to resume high-level trilateral talks with South Korea.  Hayashi said the three East Asian powers reached the agreement at the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Indonesia earlier this month.  Such engagement will include the countries’ top leaders and diplomats.  A trilateral summit between the countries has not been held since December 2019 due to tensions between Seoul and Tokyo which have since thawed.  The trilateral engagement will come amid U.S. efforts to strengthen ties with its Asian partners and allies to counter Chinese military assertiveness in the region.  Reuters

Russian Delegation Set to Visit North Korea.  Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is leading a Russian delegation to visit North Korea this week.  The Russian representatives will visit to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the Korean Armistice Agreement and will meet with a Chinese group that is also making the trip to mark the occasion.  The Russian and Chinese delegations will be the first acknowledged visitors to North Korea since the country closed its borders over the Covid-19 pandemic.  The visits will come amid Western pressure on Beijing to stop allowing North Korean sanctions evasion activities in Chinese territorial waters.  China maintains it “strictly” implements UN sanctions on Pyongyang.  Reuters

Japan, Italy to Hold Joint Air Drill in Sea of Japan.  Japan’s Air Self-Defense Force (ASDF) announced that Japan and Italy are holding a joint fighter jet drill between August 2-10.  The ASDF said four Japanese F-15 jets will join four Italian F-35A jets for the drills around northern Japan’s Komatsu air base along the Sea of Japan.  The exercise will be the first joint air drill between Japan and Italy.  Separately, the ASDF said it is holding a joint fighter jet drill with France later this week and with Australia in late August through mid-September.  Reuters

Middle East and Northern Africa

Rights Groups Warn Against Jordan Cybercrimes Law.  Human Rights Watch (HRW) and 13 other organizations released a joint statement on Monday urging Jordan’s parliament to withdraw a draft cybercrimes law, warning that the measure could pave a way for an increase in online censorship and limits on free speech.  The Jordanian government said that the proposed legislation was not meant to curb freedoms but to combat “disinformation”, “hate speech”, and “online defamation”. Independent politicians, journalists, and activists have spoken out against the law saying that it would erode public freedoms in a country where social media has become the main forum to voice criticism of the government. HRW additionally said that the draft law would allow authorities to be able to force judges to convict citizens in most cases and that courts would have sweeping powers to order any website, social media platform, or person responsible for a public account to remove or block content deemed to have violated the law, to temporarily ban a user, and hand over information including users’ personal data.  Reuters

Cyber and Tech

EU Rejects Centralized Cyber Vulnerability Reporting Requirement for Manufacturers.  EU member states have rejected a proposal that manufacturers be required to report actively exploited cyber vulnerabilities to the EU Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA).  An amended version of the Cyber Resilience Act (CRA) put forward by the European Council instead requires that manufacturers report vulnerabilities to their host-nation’s Computer Security Incident Response Team (CSIRT).  CSIRT’s, in turn, will relay warnings to other member state teams through an intelligence sharing platform to be developed and operated by the ENISA.  A final version of the amended Council proposal will be negotiated with the European Parliament later this year.  It is uncertain if the CSIRT mechanism that results in ENISA maintaining a shared data platform will satisfy concerns over the agency accumulating information about active hacking operations.  As Recorded Future News notes, Parliament’s rapporteur for cybersecurity Bart Groothuis previously said that the proposal carries the risk of ENISA becoming a target for threat actors.  ENISA already is developing policies and procedures for an EU Vulnerability Database, which it will implement and maintain.  Under the new Council proposal, each national CSIRT would establish unique “electronic notification end-points.”  A source of friction among member states may arise from the fact that CSIRT’s in some European countries, such as Italy, are part of the national intelligence community while others, as in Germany, operate independently of security agencies.  The Record

China’s Guangzhou Proposed as Mainland Hub for ‘Cross-Border’ Internet Network.  Guangzhou plans a limited program for a “cross-border Internet” network through a collaborative effort with universities and research institutes in Hong Kong and Macau.  A component of the Greater Bay Area plan, the program will enable a scientific research network in the city’s Nansha District to preserve “data security” while creating an accessible Internet environment for scientific research.  The network will operate “in accordance with the law, according to the city’s government affairs data administration agency.  The agency has invited public comment on the program and data management issues through draft documents released last week.  The Guangzhou initiative is part of the Greater Bay Area plan to create a financial and tech hub joining Hong Kong and Macau with cities in southern Guangdong Province by 2035.  Beijing’s “Great Firewall” controls Internet access on the mainland, but does not extend to the special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macau.  As part of the Guangzhou program, the Nansha District plans construction of an optical cable landing station and a channel for “international internet access.”  The program’s draft regulations require the government to establish “a cross-border data circulation ‘white list’ system to ensure cross-border data security” that will restrict system use to those on the white list. Program documents also envision Nansha’s development of computing, processing, and services sectors, and to establish a data industry center for international cooperation.  South China Morning Post

Tokyo Officials Express Unease with Scope, Implications of Chip Controls on China.  Some Japanese officials are expressing concerns that Tokyo’s involvement in U.S. efforts to block advanced semiconductor exports to China may complicate coordination and trigger retaliatory actions by Beijing.  A Japanese industry ministry official, explaining that Japan cannot sanction a country unless a conflict exists, told Reuters, "we feel an odd discomfort with how the U.S. is doing this. There's no need to identify the country, all you need to do is control the item."  Beginning this week, Japan has put export restrictions on 23 technology items, including silicon wafer equipment and etching machines for microscopic chip circuits.  While Japan has avoided naming China specifically in the export controls it has imposed on 160 nations, Beijing has warned Japan about the consequences of the restrictions.  According to another Japanese official contacted by Reuters, Japan will allow exports whenever possible and is not following the U.S. policy that presumes export denials.  Emily Benson, a trade project director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that "each country is responsible for its own licensing policies, and on top of that it's up to each country to enforce the licensing decisions that it undertakes."  The U.S., Japan, and the Netherlands have been coordinating export policies and controls on advanced semiconductor technologies, although each country maintains independence in scope and enforcement.  The Biden administration is planning to update last October’s export rules, in part to align with the broader Japanese tool list.  As a Reuters source explained, "part of the reason it's taking so long is that the U.S. is still talking to Japan. They need to make sure that if they block anything, that they similarly block it in Japan."  According to one of Reuters’ Japan industry ministry contacts, a possible longer-term approach would be for Japan, the U.S. and the Netherlands to form a group to oversee chip manufacturing tools that could eventually include other countries.  Reuters

Australian Think Tank Analyzes China-Linked Social Media Disinformation Campaigns.  A multilingual network of fake social media accounts is targeting Australian domestic and foreign policies and organizations in campaigns that indicate linkages to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).  The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) has identified coordinated fake accounts on platforms like Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram that promote and incite divisive issues, including a national indigenous referendum.  The accounts also spread disinformation and critical commentary on Australia’s parliament and companies. According to ASPI, many of the active accounts are similar in behavior to those previously suspended for links to CCP covert networks. Related findings from ASPI indicate the Chinese government is obtaining fake personas from transnational criminal organizations in Southeast Asia to replenish its covert online networks.  Among the many themes ASPI identified in the social media campaigns is a growing focus on Australian society, economic issues, and the government’s social policy efforts, which are treated with a mix of truth, half-truth and disinformation.  Among the leading narratives is one that describes Australia as a racist and sexist society that suffers from systemic discrimination.  The campaigns also target Australian foreign policy, with particular emphasis on the AUKUS (Australia-UK-U.S.) partnership and Australia’s regional policies.  Also targeted by negative messaging are individuals and organizations associated with the Australian Security Intelligence Organization.  Australia’s leading banks — Commonwealth Bank, the National Australia Bank, ANZ and Westpac – also are frequent targets of the campaign accounts.  TheStrategist (ASPI)

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