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10:00 AM ET, Tuesday, July 18, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

White House Says No Evidence Afghan Refugees in Pakistan Engaged in Extremism.  White House National Security Spokesman John Kirby said Monday that there is no indication that Afghan refugees in Pakistan, or along its border, have engaged in acts of extremism. This comes after nine Pakistani soldiers died after extremist fighters stormed an army base in Pakistan’s southern province of Balochistan which borders Afghanistan and Iran.  Three additional soldiers were killed in the area last week during an exchange of fire by militants and the Pakistani military.  Kirby reiterated that the United States will “continue to work with Pakistan as we have on their legitimate terrorism threats.”  Last week, the Pakistan army said that it has “serious concerns on the safe havens and liberty of action available to [the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militant group] in Afghanistan.”  The TTP has increased attacks since the revocation of a ceasefire agreement in late 2022.  Kabul has denied all accusations that it allows militant groups to launch attacks into Pakistan.  Reuters

Over 100 Colombians Arrested in El Salvador.  More than 100 Colombians were arrested by Salvadoran police as part of alleged involvement in the operation of a money laundering scheme used to fund drug and gang activities, according to El Salvador officials. The group allegedly made loans to individuals and small businesses with 20% interest using illegally obtained funds. The arrests are part of an ongoing crackdown on gangs by President Nayib Bukele.  Reuters

Western Europe

Ukraine War Complicates EU-Latin America Summit.  A summit between EU leaders and the Community of Latin American and the Caribbean states (CELAC), intended to affirm the strength of international ties between the two regions, fell flat as EU negotiators attempted to convince Latin American countries to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Both Nicaragua and Cuba strongly opposed the measure on Ukraine according to three EU officials and sources say that both countries had received calls from Russia pressuring them in their decision.  Despite several rounds of negotiation, there was no agreement Monday concerning the war in Ukraine. European Council President Charles Michel confirmed that diplomats were “still discussing the text of the communiqué.” A separate EU diplomat additionally said that “negotiations will go down to the finishing line” and that disagreements over the text “does not put the summit into jeopardy - for now.” Failing to agree on a joint declaration would dampen the EU’s credibility during a time when it is working to be a “partner of choice” for Latin America as the bloc seeks support for Ukraine in its war against Russia and attempts to counter China’s growing influence in Latin America.  Politico Reuters 

Central and Eastern Europe

Zelensky Condemns Russian Withdrawal from Black Sea Grain Deal.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Monday that Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal shows that it seeks to “weaponize use of hunger” and that the world needs to come together to counter “Russian madness.”  Zelensky said that 400 million people rely on grain exported through Black Sea routes, meaning that an arrangement to restore a food corridor through the region must be reached, with or without Russia.  Zelensky’s comments add to condemnations of Russia’s move from various governments and international organizations. Ukraine, the UN, the U.S. and others have all said they are working on next steps to continue the movement of grain.  The Cipher Brief Kyiv Independent CNN Al Jazeera 

Russia Resumes Traffic on Crimea Bridge.  Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin said on Tuesday that vehicle traffic on the Kerch Bridge has resumed in one lane following an attack that damaged a section of the critical link to Moscow-annexed Crimea.  Khusnullin said earlier that two-way traffic will resume by September 15 and that full traffic will be restored by November 1.  Ukraine has not officially claimed responsibility for the attack on the bridge, though Ukrainian Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov confirmed that it was “blown up by naval drones,” and an anonymous source from Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) said the attack was a joint operation between the SBU and Ukraine’s naval forces. Separately, the British foreign ministry rejected accusations that British intelligence services were involved in the attack as “baseless speculation.” The ministry’s comments came in response to Russia’s deputy UN ambassador claiming on Monday, without providing evidence, that British intelligence agencies were involved in preparing and executing the attack.  Kyiv Independent CNN Reuters

Russian Attacks Odesa and Mykolaiv with Drones, Missiles Overnight.  Russia’s Defense Ministry confirmed it struck two Ukrainian port cities overnight in a “mass revenge strike” in response to the attack on the Crimea Bridge.  The ministry said it used “precision sea-based weapons” to hit the Black Sea port of Odesa, where the Ukrainian navy’s headquarters is located, as well as a major Ukrainian commercial seaport, Mykolaiv.  The ministry claimed that it hit a ship repair plant in Odesa and fuel depots in the area.  Ukraine’s air force reported attacks on the Odesa and Mykolaiv regions, saying that it intercepted six Kalibr cruise missiles and 31 of 36 drones launched in attacks in the area.  Ukraine’s southern operational military command said that 21 Iranian-made Shahed drones were shot down around Odesa.   Local officials in the port city said blast waves and falling debris damaged several houses and port infrastructure. Mykolaiv officials said attacks there started a fire at a port facility.  The head of Ukraine’s presidential staff, Andriy Yermak, wrote on Telegram that the attacks on the Ukrainian grain ports show that the Kremlin “wants to endanger the lives of 400 million people in various countries that depend on Ukrainian food exports.”  Reuters  Al Jazeera

Ukraine Reports ‘Complicated’ Situation on Eastern Front.  Ukrainian General Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of the land forces of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, said on Tuesday that “the situation is complicated but under control” in eastern Ukraine, describing an intensification of Russian military activity in the area.  Syrskyi earlier said Russia is sending reinforcements to Bakhmut and is pushing forces towards Kupiansk, though he said Ukrainian forces are holding them back there.  Other Ukrainian military officials echoed his remarks, saying that Russia has sent 100,000 troops and 90 tanks to the northeastern Kupiansk-Lyman area.  Amid the intense fighting, both Ukraine and Russia have offered conflicting accounts of their progress.  Kyiv said it has retaken several villages in the south, has the advantage in the southwestern city of Staromayorske in the Donetsk region, and is holding back Russian forces elsewhere.  Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar on Monday added that Ukraine has liberated a total of 81 square miles of land in its counteroffensive.  Russia reports that it has advanced up to 1.2 miles in Kupiansk, and claims it is successfully slowing and deterring Ukraine’s counteroffensive with entrenched defenses and minefields.  Reuters 

Russia Arrests Woman Suspected of Helping Ukrainian Attack on Critical Infrastructure.  Russia’s FSB security service said on Tuesday that it arrested a Russian woman suspected of collecting information on a “critical infrastructure facility” on behalf of Ukrainian intelligence.  The FSB did not specify the facility, but surveillance footage purportedly taken by the FSB and circulated on Russian media showed the suspect near a hydroelectric power plant in the town of Uglich in Russia's Yaroslavl region north of Moscow.  The Russian news outlet Baza also released an alleged message exchange between the suspect and a purported Ukrainian handler in which the suspect agrees to provide map coordinates of Russian railways, military recruitment offices, and a hydroelectric plant. In the exchange, the pair discuss using drones and explosives to attack the Russian targets.  The authenticity of the exchange could not be immediately verified.  The FSB said the woman could be jailed for up to 10 years for her actions.  It is unclear how the woman pleaded.  Reuters 

UN Reports 9.300 Civilians Killed in Ukraine War.  On Monday, the U.N. Deputy Secretary General for Political Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo reported at a U.N. Security Council meeting that 9,300 civilians in Ukraine have died since Russia’s invasion in February of 2022.  DiCarlo said: “According to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, 9,287 civilians have been killed and 16,384 wounded, most of them by the fire of Russian troops.”  She also emphasized that these numbers were only confirmed deaths and injuries, and that the actual number is likely much higher.  DiCarlo added that Ukraine has become “the country with the largest number of killed and maimed children,'' as well as the country with the highest number of hospital and school artillery shelling attacks.  Kyiv Independent

Asia and Oceania

US Nuclear Missile Submarine Visits South Korea.  An American nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) visited Busan, South Korea on Tuesday for the first time since in the 1980’s, according to White House Indo-Pacific coordinator Kurt Campbell.  The South Korean defense ministry identified the submarine as the USS Kentucky, an Ohio class SSBN that depends on stealth, rarely makes appearances in foreign ports, and holds 20 Trident II D5 missiles, each of which can launch up to eight nuclear warheads as far as 7,500 miles.  The visit came as South Korea and the U.S. opened talks to plan a response to a potential nuclear war with North Korea.  The submarine’s visit is part of a deal between Washington and Seoul under which the U.S. agreed to send more strategic assets — including aircraft carriers, submarines, and long-range bombers — to the region in exchange for South Korea pledging not to develop nuclear weapons.  On Monday, North Korea cautioned against shows of military strength and denounced "openly discussing the use of nukes.”  Reuters Nikkei Asia Japan Times  Associated Press

Bilateral US-South Korea Group Meets to Discuss North Korean Threats.  The Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG), made up of South Korean and American officials and established by President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol in April, met for the first time in Seoul on Tuesday to discuss joint operations and plans centered on deterring nuclear conflict with Pyongyang.  Yoon said that the inaugural meeting “will serve as an important starting point to establish powerful, effective Korea-U.S. extended deterrence,” and stressed that the two allies must work together to discourage North Korea from using nuclear weapons.  The NCG talks were co-chaired by South Korean deputy national security director, Kim Tae-hyo and U.S. National Security Coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell.  Associated Press Korea Times

North Korea Detains U.S. National After Crossing Inter-Korean Border.  A U.S. national crossed the inter-Korean border into North Korea while on a tour of the demilitarized zone area.  The UN Command that oversees the border area says the U.S. national is likely in North Korean custody.  South Korean media and U.S. officials say the U.S. national is believed to be a U.S. soldier.  This could not be verified, and a U.S. military spokesperson did not confirm the identity of the U.S. national or if they are a member of the U.S. Army or U.S. military in South Korea.  The White House, State Department and Pentagon did not respond to requests for comment.  South Korea’s government likewise said it did not have information on the incident, which comes amid heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula following Pyongyang’s recent missile test and amid increased U.S.-South Korean military cooperation.  CNN New York Times Reuters Washington Post

Taiwan Seeks to Purchase NASAMS Air Defense System from US.  The Taiwanese Defense Ministry said Tuesday that it is looking to purchase National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) from the U.S. to boost its air defense abilities after observing the system’s efficiency in Ukraine.  The U.S., which says NASAMS has a 100% success rate in intercepting Russian missiles, provided Kyiv with the system to use in the war against Moscow. The air defense system, which was manufactured by Raytheon Technologies and Norway's Kongsberg Gruppen, guards against aircraft, missile, and drone attacks, and is a short- to medium-range ground-based system.  Taiwanese Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng said Taipei has “seen from the Russia-Ukraine war that these weapons definitely have good performance," and hopes to obtain them quickly.  China regularly condemns arms sales to Taiwan.  Reuters

U.S. Climate Envoy Kerry Meets China’s Top Diplomat.  John Kerry, the U.S. special envoy on climate, met with China’s top diplomat Wang Yi in Beijing on Tuesday.  Kerry told Wang that climate talks could offer a new venue for cooperation to redefine U.S.-China relations, which have been mired by tensions over issues ranging from technology to Taiwan.  Wang reportedly called Kerry “my old friend” and praised his work with his Chinese counterpart Xie Zhenzhua on finding areas of common ground on the common challenge of climate change.  Kerry’s visit to China is the latest in a series of high-level visits by U.S. officials, following U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Beijing and Washington have yet to elaborate on Kerry’s talks with Wang and Chinese climate officials.  Al Jazeera Reuters 

Middle East and Northern Africa

Erdogan Begins Gulf Tour in Saudi Arabia. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrived in Saudi Arabia on Monday to begin his three-state Gulf tour where he plans to seek foreign investment in Turkey’s economy. Erdogan’s first stop was in Jeddah, where he met with Saudi King Salman bin Abdul Al Saud and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Later this week he will visit the UAE and Qatar. Erdogan will attend business forums during his visits to each of the countries, with a primary focus on joint investments and commercial activities, according to the Turkish president’s office. Al Jazeera

Saudi Arabia Buys Turkish Drones.  Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman attended a signing ceremony for a drone deal between the Saudi defense ministry and Turkish drone maker, Baykar.  Baykar CEO Haluk Bayraktar did not specify how many drones were sold and for what price, but he did say the deal marked Turkey’s largest ever defense contract.  Baykar added that the deal will involve cooperation on technology transfer and joint production.  Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman said the drone deal will boost the readiness of the kingdom’s forces and improve its local defense industry.  Reuters

Sub Saharan Africa

Former Congo President Rejects Accusations He Harbored Islamist Rebels.  Democratic Republic of Congo's ex-president Joseph Kabila denied Ugandan accusations that he provided sanctuary to an Islamist rebel group, while also enabling it to develop and exploit mineral resources.  Last week, Ugandan president Yoweri Museveni accused Kabila of allowing the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) to establish large camps and mine gold and sell timber.  Established in 1996, the ADF was formed as a Ugandan rebel group, and conducted attacks around the Rwenzori region in western Uganda.  Reuters

Cyber and Tech

Commerce Opens Website for U.S. Companies To Certify Data Transfers With EU.  A Commerce Department website designed to help U.S. companies certify their participation in the new U.S.-EU agreement on data privacy has been launched.  Terms of the recent EU-U.S. Data Privacy Framework allow U.S. companies that have enrolled on the website by October 10 to conduct data transfers to and from Europe.  The website also permits companies to register their compliance with a British extension to the framework agreement as well as Swiss-U.S. data privacy standards.  According to the EU, U.S. tech companies must remove personal data from holdings “when it is no longer necessary for the purpose for which it was collected and to ensure continuity of protection when personal data is shared with third parties.”  FedScoop

Administration Officials, Chip Firm CEOs Meet To Discuss China Policies.  Executives of U.S. semiconductor firms met Monday with Biden administration officials to discuss the chip industry and supply chains in connection with China policy.  Secretary of State Antony Blinken was joined by Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and National Security Council Jake Sullivan for the conversations with executives from Intel, Qualcomm, and Nvidia.  A State Department spokesperson said Secretary Blinken used the meeting "to share his perspective on the industry and on supply chain issues, especially after his recent visit to China."  In return, Blinken sought "to hear directly from those companies about how they see supply chain issues, about how they see doing business in China."  The discussions also addressed accelerating disbursement of government subsidies for semiconductor firms from the CHIPS Act and ensuring U.S. policy does not exclude chip firms from the lucrative Chinese market.  The Biden administration is considering revisions to the chip export rules imposed in October to limit China's chip industry as well as a new executive order to restrict investments abroad.  Nvidia, Qualcomm and Intel have key markets in China. Qualcomm is the only company licensed by U.S. regulators to sell mobile phone chips to Huawei.  Nvidia sells a chip modified for the Chinese market that is already gaining traction among major Chinese firms, and Intel’s CEO went to Beijing last week to announce its own AI chip product for China.  Reuters

Semiconductor Trade Group Asks Administration To Halt Further Chip Limits on China.  A U.S. trade association urged the Biden administration to “refrain from further restrictions” on chip exports to China as leaders of the largest U.S. semiconductor manufacturers prepare for talks in Washington this week.  The statement by the Semiconductor Industry Association warned that additional limits on chip-related business with China raises the risk of "disrupting supply chains, causing significant market uncertainty, and prompting continued escalatory retaliation by China."  The association called for expanded contacts between industry experts and government officials “to assess the impact of current and potential restrictions to determine whether they are narrow and clearly defined, consistently applied, and fully coordinated with allies.”  A spokesperson for the White House National Security Council defended the measures the administration has taken, and said:  "We have been deliberate about getting this right, including through extensive public comment on regulations, and through intensive coordination with allies and partners, the Hill, industry, and other stakeholders," the spokesperson said in a statement.  Reuters

RedCurl Launches Commercial Espionage Attacks on Russian Bank, Australian Firm.  A major Russian bank and an Australian company were targets of a hacking effort by the Russia-linked threat group RedCurl to steal corporate secrets.  The Russian cybersecurity company, F.A.C.C.T., reported that RedCurl over the last four years has targeted construction, finance, insurance, and law firms in commercial espionage breaches.  Half the targets were based in Russia with others scattered over Ukraine, Canada, and Europe.  Security researchers said RedCurl made two attempts to breach the Russian bank, with a successful attack in May that worked through a bank contractor to gain access to the target network.  The same tactics were used in the attack on the Australian company.  F.A.C.C.T. described RedCurl as “constantly evolving, refining both their techniques and tools.”  Analysts say RedCurl operatives can stay undetected for long periods, between two and six months, before stealing corporate data.  The Record

Local Governments in Wisconsin, California Suffer Severe System Cyberattacks.  Local governments in Wisconsin and California, respectively, have declared a “catastrophic software failure” and a state of emergency following cyberattacks last week.  Langlade County in northern Wisconsin announced on July 11 it was dealing with severe IT issues affecting all county phone lines, including emergency telecommunications.  911 services have been rerouted.  The Russia-linked LockBit ransomware gang added the county to its victims list over the weekend and threatened to leak stolen government data by August 1.  LockBit has been implicated in other local government cyberattacks, launching small towns in Colorado, Florida and Ohio, as well as larger cities like Oakland.  Add to that list the city of Hayward, Ca., which suffered a ransomware attack last week.  The city council declared a state of emergency to streamline decision-making and bring needed flexibility in the assignment of city employees.  The council explained the declaration also prepares for possible reimbursement of costs associated with the attack.  The city emergency services director said the move also was necessary to respond effectively to “attempts to disrupt and hold hostage aspects and components of City computer systems and networks.”  The cyberattack forced Hayward to close down its website and several municipal portals, and some websites are struggling to resume operations.  The Record

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