10:00 AM ET, Tuesday, July 11, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas
Head of US Think Tank Charged as Chinese Agent. U.S. authorities on Monday charged Gal Luft, co-director of U.S. think tank Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, for allegedly acting as an unregistered agent of China, as well as seeking to broker the sale of arms and Iranian oil. Luft, a U.S.-Israeli dual citizen, is accused of recruiting and paying a former high ranking U.S. official on behalf of China in 2016, without registering as a foreign agent. Prosecutors did not identify the U.S. official, but said the individual was an advisor to then president-elect Donald Trump. Allegedly, Luft pushed the advisor to support policies favorable to China and drafted comments in the advisor’s name, which were subsequently published in a Chinese newspaper. Prosecutors additionally allege that Luft brokered a deal for Chinese companies to sell weapons to countries in Africa and the Middle East, and set up meetings with a Chinese energy company and Iranian officials to broker oil deals. Luft was arrested in Cyprus in February but fled after being released on bail and awaiting extradition. Luft is not currently in U.S. custody. Neither Luft nor the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security reportedly responded to requests for comment. Reuters Al Jazeera
U.S. Senator Discussing Sale of F-16s to Turkey with Biden Administration. U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez said Monday that he was in conversation with the Biden administration about the hold he has on the sale of American F-16s to Turkey, and that he may make a decision on the issue in the next week. He conceded that there was a “lull” in Turkey’s "aggression against its neighbors" but said it needs to become a “permanent reality.” He cited the need to fortify Greece’s security and receive "assurances about future actions." His comments come a day after Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan agreed to advancing Sweden's request to join NATO. Reuters
Paraguay President-Elect to Visit Taiwan. Paraguay's president-elect Santiago Pena arrived in Taiwan for a visit on Tuesday. He said he will work to “reinforce the friendship” between Paraguay and Taiwan to get “closer” and bring relations to a “place that we can only dream (about) at this moment. Pena said he will meet his “great friend,” Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, during his visit, along with other top officials. Paraguay is the last South American country with formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Pena promised during his election campaign to maintain relations with Taiwan, despite pressure from the Paraguayan agricultural sector to switch ties to Beijing to facilitate the export of soybeans and beef to Chinese markets. Nikkei Asia Reuters
Cuba Condemns EU Behavior While Seeking Stronger EU-CELAC Relations. Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez said Monday that Cuba seeks to deepen ties between the EU and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) at next week’s summit but accused the EU of “manipulative behavior” that could hinder progress. Leaders from the EU and the CELAC will meet in Brussels from July 17-18, the first such meeting after an eight-year pause, where they will discuss development financing, the crisis in Haiti, and climate change. Rodriguez said Cuba has hopes that “the summit will allow us to expand inclusive and mutually advantageous cooperation in areas of high priority,” but pointed out the EU’s "lack of transparency and manipulative behavior in preparing for the summit” that could damage chances of success. Rodriguez said that Cuba would attend the summit with a “constructive spirit” and fortify the relationship between the EU and CELAC on the foundations of respect and equality. Reuters
Western Europe
NATO Chief Says Ukraine will Receive “Positive” Message on Membership. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Tuesday that Ukraine will receive “a positive and strong message” about its membership in the alliance during this week’s NATO summit. Stoltenberg added that Kyiv would be given more military aid and an easier, expedited process to join NATO, with less formal conditions. U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said that the summit would convey a "positive signal" about Ukraine’s request for membership. While NATO’s 31 member states agree that Ukraine cannot join the alliance during the war, disagreement has arisen about how soon membership should be granted after the war and under what circumstances. Nations such as Germany and the US have approached the topic with caution as they seek to avoid provoking Russia or dragging NATO into a global conflict. Beyond Ukraine’s future in NATO, the gathering will also reportedly finalize plans concerning how NATO will defend against Russian assaults. Moscow has condemned the two-day summit, with Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova saying it would be "a colorful spectacle in the worst traditions of Western manipulation.” Reuters Al Jazeera Wall Street Journal
France to Give Ukraine Long-Range Missiles. French President Emmanuel Macron said on Tuesday that France will join Britain in supplying long-range missiles to Ukraine. Macron said the move will help “enable the Ukrainian to have the capacity to strike deeply” into Russian-occupied territory. Macron did not say how many missiles Ukraine will get. France will likely send the SCALP surface-to-air missiles, which have a range of around 155 miles (250 km). Britain decided in May to send Storm Shadow, the Franco-British version of the missile, to Ukraine. France 24 Reuters
Germany Pledges 700 Million Euro Military Aid Package to Ukraine. The German defense ministry announced on Tuesday that the German government has finalized a 700-million-euro ($770.28 million) military package for Ukraine. The new aid package includes two Patriot Missile systems, 40 new Marder infantry fighting vehicles, 25 1 A5 main battle tanks, five Bergepanzer 2 tanks, as well as 20,000 rounds of artillery ammunition. German defense minister Boris Pistorius said the new aid “serves Ukraine’s priorities: air defense, tanks [and] artillery,” adding that the support is “an important contribution to strengthening Ukraine’s sustainability.” Deutsche Welle Reuters
Central and Eastern Europe
Russian Military Officer Shot and Killed During Morning Run. A Russian military officer who had previously commanded a submarine in the Black Sea was shot and killed while on a morning run according to Russian officials. Officials say that Stanislav Rzhitsky, 42, was gunned down in the southern city of Krasnodar. Rzhitsky had appeared on a Ukrainian website that contained a list of alleged Russian war criminals where his address and personal details had been published. According to Reuters, on Tuesday the word “liquidated” was superimposed over Rzhitsky’s picture on the website. Al Jazeera Reuters
Zelensky Expects NATO to Confirm “De Facto” Ukrainian Membership During Summit. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that he expects the NATO summit in Vilnius to confirm that Ukraine is already a “de facto” member of NATO. Zelensky bluntly stated “when we applied for membership of NATO, we spoke frankly: de facto, Ukraine is already in the alliance. Our weapons are the weapons of the alliance. Our values are what the alliance believes in. ... Vilnius must confirm all this.” He later said that it would be “unprecedented and absurd” if a “timeframe” is not agreed to for Ukraine’s invitation to join the alliance. He also said that “certain wording is being discussed without Ukraine” which gives little clarity on Kyiv’s future in the alliance, adding that such “uncertainty is weakness.” Diplomats have stated that they are still finalizing a framework that would pave the way for long term security assurances to Kyiv. While there is agreement that Ukraine cannot join before its war with Russia ends, there is disagreement over when Ukraine will be invited to join after and under what conditions. New York Times Reuters Washington Post
Biden to Meet Zelensky at NATO Summit. U.S. President Joe Biden is scheduled to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the NATO summit on Wednesday. This meeting pointed to Zelensky’s attendance at the summit, which he later confirmed. Despite Zelensky’s presence, Biden cooled speculation concerning Ukraine joining NATO anytime soon, saying last week: “I don’t think there is unanimity in NATO about whether or not to bring Ukraine into the NATO family now, at this moment, in the middle of a war.” Zelensky previously stated that he does not plan on attending the summit “for fun” but expects a clear path for Kyiv to join the alliance. CNN Wall Street Journal
Russia Warns West of ‘Catastrophic Consequences’ With Escalation of Ukraine War. Russian diplomats warned against an escalation of the Ukraine war and criticized the West for its support of Kyiv. Konstantin Gavrilov, a Vienna-based Russian security negotiator, told Russia’s RIA news agency that the U.S. is not interested in a diplomatic resolution to the war as it continues to send military support to Ukraine. He added that Europe will be the first to face “catastrophic consequences” if the war escalates and argued that Washington does not care, saying “the fate of Europe is of little interest to the U.S.” He also asserted that Western countries “understand that time is not working for them [and] they are losing in Ukraine.” Russia’s ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly Antonov made similar comments, saying the U.S. is working to approve “anti-Russia decisions” at this week’s NATO summit. Moscow also reacted poorly to news that NATO is planning its first comprehensive defense plans in decades to prepare for a potential Russian attack, with Russia’s ambassador to Belgium saying the plans will prolong and heighten NATO and Russia’s confrontation. Deutsche Welle Reuters
Russian Drone Strikes Hit Kyiv and Odesa Hours Ahead of NATO Summit. Ukraine’s military said that Russia launched 28 kamikaze drones on the southern port of Odesa and the capital Kyiv early on Tuesday, just hours before the beginning of NATO’s summit in Lithuania. The Ukrainian Air Forces said that its air defense systems intercepted 26 of the Iranian-made Shahed drones. According to Odesa Governor Oleh Kiper, 22 of the drones were shot down over the city of Odesa, but two drones struck an administration building in the port. Kiper added that a grain and another terminal briefly caught fire. There were no reported casualties. All the drones Russia launched at Kyiv were reportedly downed. Though there were no reported casualties, the military said that falling debris hit 12 residential homes and one multi-story building in the capital city. Separately, Ukrainian officials report that Russia also shelled parts of the southern region of Kherson, killing one person in the village of Sofiivka. Barron’s Reuters
Asia and Oceania
ASEAN Meets With Myanmar in Focus. ASEAN foreign ministers gathered in Jakarta for talks on Tuesday. The gathering is set to focus on the issue of engaging with Myanmar, which is challenging the bloc’s unity and credibility. Since the Myanmar military coup in early 2021, ASEAN has been unable to effectively address the junta’s crackdown on pro-democracy opponents or its conflict with resistance groups. Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi opened the gathering without directly referring to Myanmar, saying only that the bloc must “navigate the regional and global dynamics and continue to instill the paradigm of collaboration.” ASEAN chair Indonesia has been pushing for engagement between ASEAN and Myanmar, but sources say the effort is being stymied by all sides making pre-conditions for even informal talks. This week’s ASEAN meeting comes ahead of the East Asia Summit and the ASEAN Regional Forum later this week, which U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will both attend. China’s top diplomat Wang Yi will attend in lieu of Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang, who is not attending for health reasons. Nikkei Asia Reuters
Thailand PM Prayuth Withdraws from Politics. Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha announced on Tuesday that he is retiring from politics. Prayuth will remain as caretaker premier until a new government is formed, with the Thai parliament meeting on Thursday to vote on the matter. The move comes after his military-backed United Thai Nation party lost May parliamentary elections. Prayuth came to power nine years ago through a military coup. In 2019, he was chosen by parliament to remain prime minister for another four years. He said he had “achieved many successes” while in power and that he worked to “strengthen the country in all areas for stability and peace and overcame many obstacles domestically and internationally.” Nikkei Asia Reuters South China Morning Post
South Korea, NATO Agree to Boost Security Cooperation. South Korea and NATO have agreed to expand security cooperation in 11 areas, including non-proliferation, cybersecurity, counterterrorism, and new technologies. The agreement comes as South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol attends the NATO summit in Vilnius, where he said he is seeking to “institutionalize the cooperation framework by creating individually tailored partnership programs.” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg thanked Yoon for joining the condemnation of Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and emphasized that NATO is also concerned about North Korean threats. Experts say Yoon and the leaders of Japan, Australia and New Zealand will be pressured at the NATO summit to send military aid to Kyiv. The South Korean defense ministry had previously denied reports that Seoul agreed to send artillery rounds to the U.S. which would be used in Ukraine. Reuters
Indonesia Seizes Iran-Flagged Supertanker Suspected of Conducting Illegal Oil Transfers. Indonesia’s coast guard announced on Tuesday that it seized an Iranian-flagged supertanker suspected of illegally transferring crude oil. Indonesian authorities said they seized the supertanker, the MT Arman 114, last week in Indonesia’s North Natuna Sea as it was carrying out a ship-to-ship oil transfer with the Cameroon-flagged MT S Tinos without a permit. They added that the supertanker, also called a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC), was carrying 272,569 metric tons of light crude oil, worth around $304 million, when it was seized. Indonesia’s maritime security agency said that the vessel’s systems falsely showed that it was in the Red Sea during the transfer and that it dumped oil during the transfer, pointing towards “malicious intent.” Indonesian authorities pledged after the incident to strengthen patrol of its waters to prevent future illicit activity. France 24 Reuters
Australia Calls on China, Solomon Islands to Make Public Details of Police Deal. Australia is calling on China and the Solomon Islands to publish details of their new police cooperation plan, which was one of nine agreements signed on Monday during Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare’s trip to Beijing. Australia’s foreign ministry said details of the deal should be published to “provide transparency” and allow Pacific states to “collectively consider the implications for our shared security.” Solomon Islands opposition figures are also calling for transparency on the deal, with a key opposition leader saying “a number of government ministers were not aware of the deal” and that the agreement potentially “threatens our national security and puts us in an awkward situation with our other bilateral and security partners in the region.” The police agreement expands security cooperation between China and the Solomon Islands, which has raised concerns among the U.S. and its allies about Beijing’s ambitions in the region. Al Jazeera Reuters
Middle East and Northern Africa
Iran’s President Raisi Begins Tour of Africa. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on Tuesday began his first tour of Africa as part of Tehran’s efforts to extend its economic and political ties across the continent. He will visit Kenya, Uganda and Zimbabwe in his tour, which will be the first trip by an Iranian leader to Africa in 11 years. An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson told journalists on Monday that Africa is a “continent of opportunities” and that Tehran “can describe this trip as a new starting point to have a surge in economic and trade ties alongside boosting political and cultural relations with countries on this continent.” This tour comes one month after Raisi’s trip to Latin America. Al Jazeera AfricaNews
Sub Saharan Africa
East African Bloc Considering Sudan Troop Deployment. An eastern African bloc is considering deploying troops to Sudan to protect civilians amid the conflict between Sudan’s army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), made up of eight states in and around the Horn of Africa, is meeting in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa and intends to discuss a peace process for Sudan. The Sudanese army is refusing to participate, having rejected Kenya’s president as head of the talks as he “lacks impartiality in the ongoing crisis,” referring to reports that Kenya is harboring RSF fighters. In response, the IGAD is requesting a summit of the 10-member Eastern Africa Standby Force (EASF) to consider deployment to Sudan “for the protection of civilians and [to] guarantee humanitarian access.” The IGAD talks come after U.S.- and Saudi Arabia-led peace talks in Jeddah were suspended last month over lack of progress. Notably, unlike the Jeddah talks, the IGAD talks were attended by a Sudanese civilian coalition that shared power with the military before a 2021 coup, pointing towards a possible “civilian engagement process” between Sudan and other African powers. Al Jazeera
Cyber and Tech
NATO Cyber Policy Chief Previews New Defense Concept To Be Aired at Vilnius Summit. Christian-Marc Lifländer, the head of NATO's cyber and hybrid policy section, described in a recent interview several “cyber deliverables” that will be introduced at the NATO summit in Vilnius. National goals related to the alliance’s Cyber Defense Pledge will be specified along with measures that every member state can take to enhance preparedness, identify gaps in the alliance, and reach minimum standards for cyber resilience. A second plan to be introduced covers a NATO “virtual cyber incident support capability” that will be positioned to respond with mitigation and recovery actions in the event of a significant cyberattack against the alliance. Endorsing an overall new cyber concept will also be discussed, which Liflander described not as “the end of the road” but the “beginning of a longer transformation” bringing alliance members into closer alignment. The concept will respect national sovereignty while acknowledging that “cyber doesn’t really respect organizational boundaries.” Consequently, Liflander explained, “you need the technical, the operational, and the political layer to operate better together.” Information and intelligence-sharing are key to the concept as is “a better way to react, a better way to shape cyberspace.” A final form of the concept, Liflander said, is not expected until the NATO summit in Washington next year. The Record
NATO Summit Participants Targeted in Suspected ‘RomCom’ Phishing Campaign. A series of phishing attacks have been launched against Ukraine and its Western supporters in advance of the NATO summit in Vilnius, BlackBerry security researchers report. The RomCom hacking group is suspected of launching the campaign aimed at infecting summit guests with malware. The threat actor, according to BlackBerry, is employing a fake website masquerading as the nonprofit Ukrainian World Congress. Documents downloaded from the fake website trigger an outbound connection and insert components from the attacker's command and control (C2) server on the target system. The malware aims to extract information about the infected system, including the size of the computer memory, username and network adapter information. BlackBerry concludes that the campaign may be a rebranded RomCom operation or an effort of core members from the old group supporting new threat activity. The BlackBerry report contains compromise indicators for the lure documents as well as IP addresses and domains used in the campaign. The Record BleepingComputer
Read deeply-experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis and opinion inThe Cipher Brief
