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9:30 AM ET, Tuesday, January 9, 2024

Daily national security briefings aren’t just for the president anymore. The Cipher Brief uses AI partnered with human analysis and expert perspective to keep you up-to-date on national security news from around the world. 

Here’s what’s happening now:

THE TOP STORIES

Blinken says Saudi Arabia still interested in diplomatic ties with Israel.  Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that Saudi Arabia's leader expressed openness to diplomatic recognition of Israel. However, this would depend on ending the conflict in Gaza and taking practical steps toward a Palestinian state. Blinken's remarks suggest that the normalization of ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel remains a possibility, which could have significant implications for Middle East politics and lead to a U.S.-Saudi mutual defense treaty. Saudi Arabia and other regional leaders are also willing to collaborate on stabilizing Gaza, charting a political path for Palestinians, and achieving long-term peace and stability in the region. Nonetheless, the recent violence in Gaza and differing opinions within Israel about a Palestinian state present challenges to this diplomatic effort. Antony Blinken discussed these matters during his visit to Saudi Arabia, followed by meetings with Israeli officials and discussions about the situation in Sudan and regional peace.  New York Times

Ukrainian forces on defensive amid intense Russian attacks along front lines.  Ukrainian forces along most of the 600-mile front line are on the defense but reportedly holding their ground as Russian forces mount a wide scale offensive. Ukrainian commanders in the area of Robotyne, where Russian units attack daily, say their troops attempt to counterattack immediately if they lose ground. One Ukrainian platoon commander said that about 100 to 200 meters of ground is constantly being taken and retaken, and he described the back-and-forth between the two sides as “something like a game of Ping-Pong.” Ukrainian commanders and soldiers interviewed in recent weeks say Russia’s attacks have been so intense that operating near the front lines is more dangerous than ever.  New York Times

Taiwan ruling party candidate Lai vows to increase Taiwan’s global profile.  Taiwan's ruling party's presidential candidate, Lai Ching-te, has committed to bolstering Taiwan's global presence and maintaining policies that challenge China if elected. Before the forthcoming elections, Lai emphasized his intent to enhance Taiwan's relationships with Europe and address global issues collaboratively. He aims to reassure both the electorate and international observers of his capacity to handle the delicate balance with Beijing. Outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen has fostered ties with the U.S., Japan, and like-minded democracies, a stance Lai pledges to continue to prevent Beijing's aggression. Lai's commitment to Tsai's path suggests sustained US-Taiwan cooperation against Chinese pressures. The upcoming elections are pivotal, potentially impacting cross-strait dynamics and the broader China-US geopolitical landscape, with candidates from other parties proposing more conciliatory approaches towards China.  Reuters Bloomberg 

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Blinken on diplomacy push in Israel as it says war to continue all year.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, addressing the recent escalation in Gaza, stressed the importance of creating a pathway to a viable Palestinian state to gain support from Arab nations. Amidst his fourth visit to the region since the October 7 Hamas attacks, Blinken has discussed the crisis with leaders from Jordan, Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. He aims to urge Israel to increase protections for Gazan civilians and facilitate humanitarian aid. His regional talks have also sought a long-term solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict, contingent on progress towards Palestinian statehood. Despite U.S. pressures, Israel continues intense military operations in southern Gaza, significantly impacting the civilian population and healthcare infrastructure. The conflict's expansion has prompted international calls for de-escalation and legal action, while also involving Lebanese Hezbollah, indicative of the broader regional implications of the crisis.  Reuters Wall Street JournalNew York Times

Biden, Saudi Arabia urge Israeli restraint in Gaza.  The U.S. and Middle East powers are pressuring Israel to ease its Gaza assault, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken seeking to prevent further escalation. Despite calls for moderation, Israeli forces continue "tough battles" in Gaza, with no let-up in attacks that have killed over 23,000 Palestinians. Israel's campaign, the most intensive to date, persists with varied military tactics targeting holdout Hamas fighters. Blinken, amid his fourth regional mission since the conflict's intensification from an October 7 attack by Hamas, is advocating for peace and the creation of a Palestinian state. President Joe Biden said on Monday that he has been “quietly working” to get Israel to “reduce” its military presence in Gaza and “significantly get out” of the enclave.  His comment came during a speech in South Carolina after being interrupted by protesters calling for a ceasefire. Meanwhile, Israel and Hamas uphold their respective positions on civilian operations, and regional leaders emphasize the necessity of peace and Palestinian rights. The conflict has displaced nearly all of Gaza's population, with many fleeing multiple times.  Reuters Axios Barron’s BBC 

Israel says it found underground weapons factory in Gaza.  Israeli officials assert that Hamas embeds its military infrastructure within civilian zones, including the use of tunnels, to complicate Israeli military responses. Hamas denies these accusations, insisting that Israel strikes civilian areas indiscriminately. In a recent surge of violence, Palestinian health sources report that over 22,000 Palestinians have been killed. The ongoing hostilities have displaced a significant portion of Gaza's 2.3 million population to a smaller area in the region's south. The situation escalated from an October 7 attack by Hamas, which resulted in the deaths of more than 1,200 Israelis and the capture of around 240 individuals. This incident provoked Israel to launch its most substantial operation in Gaza to date. Reuters

UN experts say alleged sexual torture by Hamas on October 7 may amount to crimes against humanity.  United Nations experts have labeled the civilian attacks during Hamas' October 7 incursions into Israel as potential war crimes and crimes against humanity. In Geneva, UN rapporteurs Alice Jill Edwards and Morris Tidball-Binz demanded accountability for the killings and reported sexual torture. Their statement highlighted the brutal violence targeting civilians near the Gaza strip, including sexual violence such as rape, gang rape, mutilations, and other forms of sexual abuse. Despite mounting evidence, Hamas denies its involvement in sexual violence. The premeditated nature and the scale of these attacks could elevate them to crimes against humanity, according to the UN experts.  CNN

Hezbollah says Top Commander Killed amid tensions with Israel.  Hezbollah says that a top commander, Wissam Taweel, was killed by Israel.  The group did not provide any further details but some media reports say that he was targeted while traveling in a vehicle.  This comes amid rising concerns of the war spreading throughout the region, and as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vows to restore security to Northern Israel.  Israeli officials said recently that time is running out for a diplomatic solution with Israel, and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in the region on a diplomatic push to prevent escalation, says that the war could “easily” turn into a broader conflict. Bloomberg Wall Street Journal 

Hezbollah strikes Israeli military base in Northern Israel. Hezbollah has targeted an Israeli military command base in Safed with explosive drones, marking the first such attack on the site, in retaliation for Israeli assassinations of high-level figures in Lebanon. Despite the attack, no damage or casualties were reported by the Israeli army. This incident followed an Israeli drone strike in southern Lebanon that killed three, including senior Hezbollah member Wissam al-Tawil, and Saleh al-Arouri, a top Hamas official. The escalation occurs amidst U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's Middle East visit aimed at de-escalating the Israel-Hamas conflict. The increase in hostilities raises concerns about the broader regional impact of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which has already displaced thousands and led to significant Hezbollah casualties, marking their worst clashes since 2006.  The Guardian 

Israel shifts to deadlier strikes on Iran-linked targets in Syria.  Israel has intensified its airstrikes in Syria, targeting Iranian arms shipments and Hezbollah members, marking a strategic shift from its previous approach. The change, prompted by a Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, has led to deadlier and more frequent raids, with direct hits rather than warning shots. This escalation has resulted in the deaths of 19 Hezbollah members in Syria over three months, a significant increase compared to earlier in the year. Israel's military has not officially commented, but a senior Israeli official cited retaliation for Hezbollah-initiated attacks. The increased strikes have also killed Iranian Revolutionary Guards and hit infrastructure, putting pressure on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Israel asserts it does not seek a second war front, and despite the escalation, Syria has refrained from engaging directly with Israel, reportedly due to threats conveyed through the United Arab Emirates, which the UAE denies. Reuters

Jordan says Israel’s Netanyahu cannot drag region into wider war.   Jordan's Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi has condemned the international community's inaction as Israel, under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, intensifies its military campaign in Gaza, potentially escalating to a wider regional conflict. Speaking to his French counterpart, Safadi warned of the increasing risk of the conflict's expansion and criticized Netanyahu's government for seeking to engage the West directly in a war that threatens further turmoil. Safadi accused Israel of surpassing human, legal, and moral boundaries in its aggression against Gaza, stating that no justifications remain to prevent the U.N. Security Council from intervening with a resolution to cease hostilities. He criticized the Council's inaction as indicative of double standards and selective enforcement of international law. Jordan and France jointly oppose the large-scale displacement of Palestinians and urge Israel to permit the return of Gaza's inhabitants, currently forced into the region's southern areas near Egypt.  Reuters

Oil tankers continue Red Sea movements despite Houthi attacks.  Despite Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, oil tanker traffic remained relatively stable in December. The conflict has increased shipping costs and insurance premiums, yet the Red Sea route is still more economical compared to rerouting around Africa. Some oil companies, like BP and Equinor, are opting for the longer route due to the attacks. Nevertheless, the daily average of tankers in the region has decreased only slightly. Chartering costs have doubled since December, with substantial rates for Suezmax and Aframax tankers. Container shipping has seen a more significant drop, declining by 28% in December. Several major oil firms continue to navigate the Red Sea, with Chevron and Reliance among those actively assessing the safety of their routes. The tensions have shifted some oil flows, with a record amount of U.S. crude being exported to Europe in December as buyers seek alternatives amidst the uncertainty in the Red Sea.  Reuters

Blinken warns Houthis of ‘consequences’ for if Red Sea strikes continue.  Secretary of State Antony Blinken, on his fourth Middle East tour since October 7, warned of "consequences" for Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, echoing concerns from 40 countries. These discussions took place following meetings with regional leaders, including Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince and officials in Turkey, Greece, Qatar, and the UAE, focusing on preventing regional conflict escalation and supporting a post-conflict government in Gaza. Rising Red Sea tensions affect global trade, as evidenced by the recent dip in Suez Canal transits, with Blinken emphasizing the importance of maritime freedom. Despite military responses and heightened regional presence by U.S. forces, Qatar has voiced opposition to military action, highlighting the complexity of Blinken’s mission to balance regional stability while addressing Iranian proxy aggression and recent Israel-Hezbollah tensions. Blinken has stressed the need to prevent further conflict spread during his diplomatic engagements.  Bloomberg

North Korean weapons used by Hamas, South Korea confirms.  South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) has released a photo of a North Korean F-7 rocket-propelled grenade, which is the type reportedly used by Hamas in its conflict with Israel. This follows a Voice of America report that raised suspicions about Hamas's use of North Korean weapons, showing a rocket part with Korean characters. The NIS corroborated this assessment, highlighting a component believed to be a fuse. The agency is gathering more evidence on the extent and timeline of these alleged arms transfers. South Korea had previously speculated on Hamas's use of North Korean arms in October, which North Korea dismissed as baseless. Additionally, the NIS is investigating with U.S. authorities the suspected use of North Korean missiles by Russia in Ukraine, which would breach U.N. Security Council resolutions. Concurrently, tensions persist as North Korea conducted artillery firings near the Korean border, despite claiming to have only detonated blasting powder.  Nikkei Asia 

Displaced Palestinians squeezed into shrunken Gaza.  Palestinians in Gaza are being displaced into increasingly congested areas, with 1.9 million people, 85% of Gaza’s population, now in Rafah. Gazans have had to evacuate their homes due to Israeli military operations and are facing severely limited resources. The U.N. and aid agencies struggle to provide relief under war conditions, emphasizing the enormity of the humanitarian crisis. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has indicated intentions to control Gaza's southern border to halt weapon smuggling by Hamas. Escalating military actions could exacerbate the crisis, as evacuation options dwindle. Israel's military maintains evacuations are to minimize civilian risk amid hostilities. However, Palestinian health officials report over 23,000 deaths, primarily women and children, since the conflict's onset, with indiscriminate shelling allegations by Hamas, which Israel denies.  Wall Street Journal 

Displaced Palestinians flee last hospital in central Gaza as fighting nears.  Israeli military actions in central Gaza have led to the evacuation of medical workers from al-Aqsa Hospital amid increasing violence. The hospital, surrounded by drone attacks and sniper fire, was the last medical facility in the region, leaving the wounded with scarce care options. Civilians sheltered there have fled to Rafah, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. International pressure is mounting on Israel to limit its military campaign and allow more aid into Gaza. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has called for an immediate reduction in civilian casualties and for Israel to cease military operations. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is coordinating recovery plans for Gaza, emphasizing the need for a two-state solution and civilian protection. The WHO reports only a fraction of Gaza's hospitals remain functional, with al-Aqsa Hospital critically understaffed and undersupplied amidst the conflict.  Washington Post 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Russia launches another mass attack against Ukraine, kills 4, injures 45.  Russia launched extensive missile attacks on various regions in Ukraine on Monday, causing fatalities, injuries, and significant damage to civilian areas. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russia launched 51 missiles, including hypersonic and cruise missiles, in the attacks. Ukrainian President Zelensky indicated that casualties had risen to 45, with emergency services active in multiple regions. The assaults resulted in at least two deaths in the Khmelnitskiy region and infrastructural damage across several other areas, including Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine's air defenses managed to intercept several missiles and drones, but the defense systems faced challenges due to the advanced nature of the Russian missiles. The Ukrainian military highlighted the need for sophisticated systems like the Patriot to effectively counter such threats. These events have deepened the crisis, prompting continued efforts to provide support and assistance to those affected.  Radio Free Europe Kyiv Independent 

ISW: Western air defense and missiles crucial for Ukraine.  As Russia develops new strategies to penetrate Ukraine's air defenses, the Institute for the Study of War emphasizes the critical need for ongoing Western support with air defense systems and missiles. Recent Russian aerial assaults on Ukrainian civilian areas have prompted Kyiv to seek increased air defense aid from allies. Both nations are in a constant cycle of adjusting their air capabilities for superiority. Western air defense contributions have been pivotal for Ukraine, especially against ballistic missiles. On January 2, Ukraine's military successfully intercepted Russian Kinzhal ballistic missiles using Patriot systems. To sustain its defense, Ukraine requires steady military aid, particularly missiles, to safeguard its defense industry. Ukraine is also aiming to boost its domestic arms production, with President Zelensky reporting a tripling of output in 2023. The U.S. is exploring further innovations for Ukraine's defense, contingent on securing necessary funding.  Kyiv Independent  ISW

Ukraine air force says it is facing deficit in anti-aircraft guided missiles.  A Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson said on Tuesday that Ukraine has a deficit of anti-aircraft guided missiles.  The spokesperson said Ukraine had used a “considerable reserve” of its missiles to counter recent Russian missile attacks.  The spokesperson expressed hope that delays in further Western military aid will be resolved to address the shortage.  A Ukrainian lawmaker added that Ukraine will discuss how to strengthen its air defenses at a meeting with NATO allies this week.  Ukrainian officials have previously warned of Russia stockpiling missiles for winter attacks against Ukraine’s energy grid to cause power disruptions, as it did last winter.  Reuters

Ukraine military intelligence claims capture of Russian drone maker’s classified data.  ​​Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) has claimed to have seized 100 gigabytes of classified data worth around $1.5 billion from the Russian company Special Technology Center. The St. Petersburg-based firm, which is under Ukrainian and international sanctions, produces Orlan reconnaissance drones, electronic warfare systems, and other tools used by the Russian military. Orlan drones are frequently used by Russian forces in Ukraine for various purposes. The HUR stated that it obtained blueprints, patents, and software related to existing and ongoing projects, describing the data as "critically important." They credited effective cooperation with civil society and the media community for obtaining this data. This development is seen as a significant blow to Moscow, with the obtained data expected to strengthen Ukraine's defense capabilities. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine FM says allies not pushing for frozen conflict.  Ukraine's Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said that Ukraine's allies are not pressuring Kyiv to engage in negotiations with Russia to freeze the war. Kuleba rejected the idea of a frozen conflict, saying that it would only aid Russia. Kuleba highlighted the extensive talks between Kyiv and Moscow between 2014 and 2022, characterizing this period after Russia's initial invasion as a de facto frozen conflict which was followed by a full-scale invasion.  The New York Times had reported Putin signaling a willingness to consider a ceasefire along the current frontline, but Ukrainian and Western leaders doubt Russia's sincerity in genuine peace negotiations.  Ukrainian and U.S. officials have also said any pause to fighting would allow Russia to reconsolidate its military.  Separately, regarding the $54 billion EU fund blocked by Hungary in December, Kuleba expressed confidence in a positive decision during the European Council meeting in February. He noted the absence of a backup plan but emphasized the need to make the existing plan work. Kuleba similarly said the stalled $61.4 billion U.S. aid package must be passed.  He also reiterated Ukraine's commitment to EU accession, clarifying that it doesn't imply immediate Schengen zone or Euro-zone membership.  Kyiv Independent

Ukraine finds over $260 million in violations at Defense Ministry.  Ukraine's Defense Ministry, led by Minister Rustem Umerov, has reportedly uncovered financial misconduct amounting to over $260 million. These findings follow two significant corruption scandals involving former Minister Oleksii Reznikov, related to overpriced food supplies and substandard winter jackets. President Zelensky emphasized the importance of transparency in defense procurement upon appointing Umerov. The Ministry has been actively combating internal and external corruption in collaboration with law enforcement. This effort has led to considerable savings of $91 million in non-lethal equipment purchases over the past month. The National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine is also investigating prior allegations of corruption in the Ministry's food procurement, which involved purchasing food at significantly higher prices than local supermarkets. Reznikov resigned amidst these corruption revelations in September.  Kyiv Independent 

Russia deports, detains Ukrainian civilians without trial.  The BBC’s Russia service is out with a new report that says thousands of Ukrainian civilians have been deported and detained by Russian authorities without formal charges or trials, which deviates from international norms requiring detainees to be charged and tried fairly. These actions conflict with the Geneva Convention's guidelines on the treatment of prisoners, as it prohibits hostage-taking but does not fully address civilian detentions. Legal experts, like Polina Murygina and Maria Eismont, highlight the challenges in providing legal assistance to these detainees due to the lack of formal accusations or procedural clarity. Relatives are often unable to locate or assist detainees, who sometimes suffer from brutal treatment, including torture. Despite these practices, Russia claims adherence to the Geneva Convention, and the plight of these civilians remains a complex legal and humanitarian issue, as evidenced by the difficulty defense lawyers face in accessing and representing the detained.  BBC Kyiv Independent 

Russia evacuating children from Belgorod region.  Russia is reportedly planning to evacuate children from the Belgorod region following recent alleged airstrikes on the region by Ukraine.  Kyiv has not claimed responsibility for the attacks, which coincided with Russia launching large-scale missile and drone attacks against Ukraine.  Belgorod borders Ukraine’s Sumy, Kharkiv, and Luhansk regions and has reported attacks by Ukrainian forces in recent months.  Kyiv Independent 

Germany’s Scholz criticizes EU for not providing enough military support to Ukraine.  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said yesterday that most countries in the European Union are not providing enough weapons to Ukraine in its fight against Russia. Scholz said Germany would support Ukraine for as long as necessary, and that he is confident the EU will agree to a 50 billion euro aid package for Ukraine at an emergency summit on February 1. The EU failed to reach agreement at a summit in December because of opposition from Hungary. Germany has become Ukraine’s second-largest backer, after the U.S., and agreed last year to provide $8.8 billion in weapons and financial assistance in 2024. Reuters Kyiv Independent RFE/RL

White House, industry leaders meet on Ukraine tech access.  White House officials recently met with leaders from venture capital firms, technology, and defense industries to discuss reinforcing the Biden administration's support for Ukraine's access to advanced U.S. technology and equipment. The meeting, convened by Jake Sullivan, head of the White House National Security Council, focused on various systems, including unmanned aerial systems and countering incoming drones, as well as addressing demining challenges. Participants included representatives from companies like Fortem Aerospace, Palantir Technologies, Anduril Industries, and Skydio. The administration aims to facilitate the transfer of technological innovations to aid Ukraine in overcoming challenges on the battlefield. This effort is separate from the December agreement to enhance weapons co-production and data sharing between the U.S. and Ukraine and relies on congressional approval of a more than $100 billion supplemental aid package, including security aid for Ukraine and Israel.  Reuters Bloomberg

European Commission sends letter of concern to Poland over border blockade.  Polish media outlet RMF24 reported yesterday that a European Commission representative has sent the Polish government a letter expressing concern over an ongoing blockade at Poland’s border with Ukraine. Polish truckers have been blocking three crossings since November in protest over the European Union’s liberalization of transit rules for Ukrainian truckers. The blockade has caused massive lines at the border and has impacted Ukraine’s economy. In the letter to Polish Infrastructure Minister Dariusz Klimczak, EU Transport Commissioner Adina Valean cited Poland’s obligation to ensure free movement of vehicles at border crossings in accordance with an agreement between the EU and Ukraine. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine, allies initiate proceedings against Iran over airplane downing.  Ukraine, Sweden, Canada and the U.K. announced yesterday the initiation of dispute settlement proceedings with the International Civil Aviation Organization over Iran’s shooting down a Ukrainian airliner in 2020. Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 was traveling from Tehran to Kyiv when it was hit by two missiles shortly after takeoff, killing all 176 people aboard. Iranian officials said an air defense unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard had mistaken the plane for a U.S. cruise missile. Ukraine, Sweden, Canada and the U.K. filed proceedings with the International Court of Justice in July 2023. In their filing yesterday, the four countries reiterated their claim that Iran has failed to conduct a thorough investigation or take full responsibility for the incident. Kyiv Independent

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

The Americas

Biden dismisses calls for Austin’s resignation.  U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin remains in his position despite not disclosing his hospitalization, which has caused political upheaval. White House and Pentagon officials say that Austin has no intention of resigning, and President Biden is not seeking his removal. Austin, still hospitalized, has been conducting business, including calls with senior security officials. This situation drew criticism from Republicans, notably former President Trump, who called for Austin's resignation. The White House and other officials were initially uninformed about Austin's hospital stays, leading to calls for accountability from members of Congress. The Pentagon has reassured that Austin is well and has resumed full duties, although details of his medical condition and treatments remain undisclosed. Austin's role requires him to be readily available for national security crises, raising concerns about the implications of his hospital stays on his readiness and the chain of command.  Politico Reuters

Pentagon faces pressure over Defense Secretary Austin’s absence.  U.S. lawmakers are seeking explanations for the lack of transparency regarding Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's recent hospitalization. Austin's staff knew of his hospital stay beginning on January 2nd, but failed to inform the White House, Congress, or the deputy defense secretary. The reasons for Austin's admission to Walter Reed and details about his condition during his intensive care stay remain undisclosed. Lawmakers, including Senator Susan Collins and Representative Seth Moulton, expressed concern over the secrecy, considering the critical global military issues facing the U.S. Austin's chief of staff, Kelly Magsamen, outlined a 30-day internal review to refine notification procedures. Despite calls for resignation from some, the White House stands by Austin, acknowledging errors but affirming his role. Pentagon spokesman Major General Patrick Ryder admitted to communication failures and promised improvements, while Austin is reported to be recovering well.  Bloomberg

US sailor sentenced to 27 months in prison for giving China military information. A former U.S. Navy sailor, Petty Officer Wenheng “Thomas” Zhao, was sentenced to 27 months in prison and fined $5,500 on Monday for accepting nearly $15,000 in bribes from Chinese intelligence agencies to share “controlled and classified” U.S. military information.  Zhao pleaded guilty in October to conspiring with a foreign adversary and accepting bribes.  He admitted to sending his Chinese handler details on U.S. military exercises in the Indo-Pacific region, operational orders, and blueprints for a radar system on a U.S. military base in Okinawa, Japan.  Zhao has been in custody since his August arrest.  The Chinese embassy in Washington said it was not aware of the case.  Another U.S. sailor, Jinchao Wei, was arrested in August on similar espionage charges.  Wei has pleaded not guilty. U.S. authorities say the cases underscore concerns about Chinese espionage in the US, with Matthew Olsen, assistant attorney general for national security, noting that China’s intelligence services actively target those holding U.S. security clearances.   South China Morning Post Reuters BBC Financial Times 

Moon lander problem threatens mission after Vulcan rocket makes successful debut.  Astrobotic Technology's Peregrine lunar lander experienced a propulsion system issue on its way to the moon, jeopardizing the first U.S. soft lunar landing in over 50 years. Peregrine had successfully launched from Cape Canaveral, Florida, aboard the Vulcan rocket. However, issues with its propulsion system briefly hindered the spacecraft's ability to angle itself toward the sun for power. While engineers regained control, the propulsion system continued to lose valuable propellant, potentially making a moon landing unachievable. This mission aimed to mark the first U.S. soft moon landing since 1972 and the first-ever lunar landing by a private company. It was part of NASA's Artemis program, with plans for future human missions to the moon.  Reuters

NASA to push back moon mission timelines amid spacecraft delays.  NASA plans to delay several Artemis moon missions due to technical challenges with spacecraft, including issues with the Lockheed Martin Orion crew capsule and SpaceX's Starship development. The second Artemis mission, initially aimed for late 2024, will be postponed after battery problems during tests. Artemis 3, which aims to land humans on the moon using SpaceX's system, will also face delays. Discussions are ongoing about shifting the first astronaut moon landing to a later Artemis mission, giving contractors like SpaceX additional preparation time. NASA relies on partnerships with private companies, including Boeing and Northrop Grumman for the Space Launch System, Lockheed Martin for the Orion capsule, and SpaceX for lunar landing. One key challenge for SpaceX is achieving orbital refueling, critical for lunar missions. The delays reflect the complexity of returning humans to the moon for the first time since 1972.  Reuters

Ecuador declares state of emergency, curfew amid after drug lord escapes prison.  Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa declared a 60-day state of emergency following the disappearance of the country's most-wanted prisoner, Adolfo Macias, a leader of the Los Choneros gang, from jail. This move is among Noboa's initial responses to address the escalating violence and prison gang conflicts that have resulted in over 400 inmate deaths since 2021. The emergency measure grants the Armed Forces enhanced political and legal backing, reflecting Noboa's commitment to tackling organized crime and drug trafficking. The decree also includes the deployment of the military to assist in controlling prisons and establishing a national nighttime curfew. Such measures have been tried by past administrations with limited success in curbing the country's security challenges.  Reuters

Europe

US fighter jets fly over Bosnia in warning to 'secessionist' Serbs.  Two U.S. F-16 fighter jets flew over Bosnia in a show of support for the country's territorial integrity amid concerns about secessionist activities by Bosnian Serbs. The U.S. embassy in Sarajevo announced the overflight, which is part of bilateral air-to-ground training conducted with Bosnia's national armed forces. The move is intended to demonstrate U.S. commitment to ensuring Bosnia-Herzegovina's territorial integrity and upholding the Dayton peace accords, which ended the 1992-1995 Bosnian war. The U.S. embassy also expressed concern about nationalist leader Milorad Dodik's separatist agitation in the Bosnian Serb region and emphasized that the country's constitution does not allow for secession. Dodik is facing charges for suspending decisions of the constitutional court and the international envoy overseeing the Dayton accords.  Reuters 

Russia arrests U.S. citizen for alleged drug trafficking.  A Moscow court placed a U.S. citizen, Robert Woodland Romanov, under arrest for attempted drug trafficking.  Russian media reports that Romanov will be held until March 5 under the order.  Further details of his case were not disclosed by the court.  Russia has detained several Americans in recent years.  Russian President Vladimir Putin said in December that Moscow and Washington were discussing potential prisoner swaps when he was asked about detained American citizens Evan Gershkovich and Paul Whelan, who are in custody on espionage charges which they and the U.S. have denied.  The U.S. said earlier that Russia rejected an offer for the release of the two men.  Bloomberg

Sweden to send troops to Latvia.  Sweden has pledged to send troops to support a Canadian-led NATO force in Latvia, as announced by Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. Although Sweden's NATO membership is pending, the commitment reflects its readiness to enhance Baltic defense. Amid concerns of Russia's aggression in Ukraine and broader threats to European stability, Sweden will provide ground combat units and plans to deploy a mechanized battalion of about 800 soldiers to Latvia by early 2025. Canada, currently leading the NATO battlegroup in Latvia, aims to double its forces there by 2026. Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds expressed gratitude for Sweden's decision, highlighting it as a key step in fortifying regional security and Latvia's defense.  Kyiv Independent 

France’s Macron appoints new prime minister.  French President Emmanuel Macron has appointed Gabriel Attal, the 34-year-old Education Minister, as France's new Prime Minister ahead of the European Parliament elections. This move is seen as an effort to rejuvenate his second term and distance from last year's contentious reforms. It comes as Macron's party lags behind Marine Le Pen's in polls. Attal, known for his effective communication during the COVID pandemic, is popular and France's youngest and first openly gay Prime Minister. The change doesn't signal a major policy shift but indicates Macron's strategy to refresh his leadership as he faces a more challenging parliament.  Reuters

Asia and Oceania

Taiwan mistakenly sounds air raid alert during Chinese satellite fly-over.  Taiwan’s defense ministry mistakenly alarmed its citizens with a mobile alert about a Chinese satellite launch, initially miscommunicated as a missile flyover, causing political turbulence just before the presidential and legislative elections. The alert, later corrected and followed by an official apology, indicated Beijing's continued pattern of intimidation tactics against Taiwan. President Tsai Ing-wen assured the public there was no missile threat, while Foreign Minister Joseph Wu called for moderation in response. The incident led to criticism from opposition parties, with the Kuomintang party accusing the government of misleading the public, suggesting political motives. Analysts and advisors from both political sides downplayed the alert's necessity, noting China's routine satellite launches. The error, occurring close to election day, has heightened political tensions and scrutiny over Taiwan’s national defense communications.  New York Times BBC Associated Press

China’s trade tactics towards Taiwan ahead of election push island’s exporters to diversify.  China has escalated economic tactics seen as political messages to Taiwanese voters ahead of Taiwan’s elections, which Beijing has framed as a choice between “peace and war” and “prosperity and decline.”  These measures include bans on goods from Taiwan, such as grouper fish.  While China has gradually reopened the Chinese market to some banned companies, those impacted remain wary and have been prompted to reconsider dependence on trade with mainland China.  Taiwan’s government has responded by increasing efforts to assist businesses in exploring new markets, recognizing the need for diversification and challenges from China’s opposition to Taiwan’s inclusion in regional trade deals.  Cross-strait tensions, marked by trade bans and Chinese military actions, are seen as attempts to influence Taiwan’s elections.  Experts suggest China’s economic coercion tactics may have limited impact on Taiwanese voters who appear to be more concerned with candidates’ abilities to address security threats from China.  South China Morning Post

Explainer | Why does Taiwan matter so much to both mainland China and the US?  The upcoming presidential elections in Taiwan are critical, not only for the island’s future relations with China but also for the broader geopolitical dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region and the stance of the United States towards China. The leading candidate, DPP's Lai Ching-te, views Taiwan as an independent country and wishes to enhance Taiwan's global relations, especially with Europe, while maintaining the status quo with Beijing. This approach continues the outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen's efforts to strengthen ties with like-minded democracies and counters China's isolation tactics. The election could significantly affect cross-strait relations and U.S.-China interactions. If Lai wins, it would mean continued strained relations with China, in line with the U.S.'s objective to support Taiwan against Chinese assertiveness. The election result will determine whether Taiwan's current stance of resistance against Beijing’s pressure will persist or if there will be a shift in dynamics with potential impacts on global trade, security, and the semiconductor industry.  South China Morning Post 

China seeks to ‘shape new pattern’ for world relations, foreign minister says.  Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasized China's commitment to shaping a "new pattern" of international relations, focusing on multilateralism and opposing unilateralism, protectionism, and the reversal of globalization. He outlined China's diplomatic approach as cooperative and just, contrasting it with "power politics." During his speech, he highlighted China's adherence to principles of fairness and justice and the pursuit of an equal, multipolar world. Wang's comments come amid China's economic challenges and tensions with Western nations. He reiterated China's aim to bolster ties with developing countries and strategic trust with Russia, while offering "Chinese solutions" to global conflicts like those in Ukraine and Gaza. Wang also underscored China's resolve to maintain territorial integrity, alluding to the issue of Taiwan, which China considers a core part of its sovereignty.  South China Morning Post 

China, India race to expand aircraft carrier fleets.  China and India are intensifying efforts to enhance their naval capabilities, particularly by expanding their aircraft carriers fleets, as they vie for dominance in the Indo-Pacific region. China's new Fujian aircraft carrier is expected to be commissioned in 2025, equipped with electromagnetic catapults, allowing aircraft to take off with more weight, thus improving range and combat capabilities. While the Fujian is steam-powered, there is speculation about China turning to nuclear power for its fourth aircraft carrier. China reportedly aims to have five aircraft carriers by 2031. India currently operates two aircraft carriers.  It is responding to China's increased presence in the Indian Ocean under its "String of Pearls" strategy, stationing carriers in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.  New Delhi plans to secure a third carrier to address defensive challenges during maintenance periods for its existing carriers. The U.S. and India formed a working group on carrier-related technology in 2015, enabling potential domestic production with American cooperation.  Nikkei Asia

Pakistan-China stealth fighter deal pressuring India to modernize air force.  Pakistan is advancing its military capabilities by planning to acquire Chinese stealth fighter jets, which may prompt India to expedite its air force modernization, potentially through the acquisition of American F-35s. The deal for FC-31 Gyrfalcon jets, speculated to include up to 36 aircraft, highlights Pakistan's deepening military ties with China against a common adversary, India. This move is expected to pressure India to develop and deploy its own stealth combat aircraft sooner. Analysts suggest that the acquisition could give Pakistan a tactical advantage and is part of a broader strategic partnership with China, countering India's alliances with Western nations, especially the United States. The FC-31's induction into the Chinese navy is anticipated within five years, reflecting China's growing military sophistication and export ambitions.  South China Morning Post

ANALYSIS — What's behind North Korea's increasing belligerence?  In response to more than 200 artillery rounds fired by North Korea near South Korean islands, causing civilian evacuations, South Korea retaliated with artillery into the sea. This escalation precedes South Korea's legislative elections in April 2024, with analysts suggesting Pyongyang might use military provocations to influence the outcome and ease sanctions. North Korea, discontent with South Korea's Yoon administration's sanctions, might be using such actions to undermine Yoon's policies and build a narrative against him domestically. North Korea, under Kim Jong-un, is distancing itself further from the South, intensifying military readiness, and planning more satellite launches, signaling an end to any reconciliation. The situation raises concerns of a potential clash escalating into a broader conflict, especially since the two Koreas have moved away from military confidence-building measures.  Deutsche Welle

ANALYSIS — Xi, Biden and the $10 Trillion Cost of War Over Taiwan.  The article discusses the high economic and human cost of a potential conflict over Taiwan, with Bloomberg Economics estimating the cost at about $10 trillion. Despite the rising tensions between China, Taiwan, and the U.S., few believe an imminent Chinese invasion is likely. However, the military and financial sectors are preparing for various scenarios, including a Chinese invasion or blockade. Tensions have increased since Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taipei in August 2022, with China conducting naval drills. The U.S. and its G7 partners recognize the real risk of conflict, and corporate contingency planning has increased since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The article also touches on Taiwan's elections, with potential implications for cross-Strait relations. Beijing's and Washington's leaders have made statements that add to the tensions, and investors are reacting by reducing their stakes in Taiwan, given the geopolitical risks. Despite the tensions, the high cost of a crisis provides a strong incentive to maintain the status quo.  Bloomberg

Middle East

Pentagon says not planning a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq.  The Pentagon has no current plans to withdraw the approximately 2,500 U.S. troops from Iraq, despite Baghdad's recent announcement of beginning the process to remove U.S.-led coalition forces. Major General Patrick Ryder emphasized the U.S. commitment to the ISIS defeat mission and stated that U.S. forces remain in Iraq by the government's invitation. The move to evict U.S. forces follows a U.S. drone strike in Baghdad, which the Iraqi government condemned and said resulted in the death of a militia leader linked to recent attacks on U.S. personnel. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's office has stated that a committee will ensure the permanent cessation of the international coalition's presence in Iraq, reflecting a firm stance to conclude the coalition's mission as its initial justifications have ended. This development follows a series of attacks on U.S. military in Iraq and Syria since the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict in October. Sudani's coalition includes some Iran-backed factions, indicating complex internal dynamics and influence over Iraq's decision-making.  Reuters

Africa

DRC security forces ordered to leave home of opposition candidate.  Authorities in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) ordered security forces to leave the home of opposition politician Moise Katumbi, who finished second in the recent presidential elections. Earlier, security forces had surrounded Katumbi's secondary home in the southern province of Upper Katanga, preventing him from leaving. The provincial governor condemned the incident, calling it a "faux pas" committed by some law enforcement authorities to protect the property from vandalism. The DRC has faced unrest since the elections, which were marred by logistical issues, ran a day over, and has been scrutinized over transparency concerns. Both the opposition and independent observers criticized the election's conduct, and Katumbi has joined calls for annulling the results, citing "massive fraud." Only two opposition candidates out of 18 filed petitions challenging the results with the Constitutional Court.  Reuters 

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Chinese military scientists developing energy shield to defend against enemy radiation.  Chinese scientists are advancing a "plasma shield" to protect military tech from high-powered microwaves, akin to energy shields in science fiction. This defense activates instantly, strengthening under attack, and is capable of withstanding intense electromagnetic strikes. The project, led by Chen Zongsheng, responds to U.S. developments in similar technologies. Laboratory tests confirm the feasibility of shielding sensitive circuits from up to 170kW electromagnetic bombardments. The miniaturization process is underway to deploy this technology, which aims to absorb attack energy, increasing its density to reflect assaults without hindering the operation of protected devices. The shield's development focuses on minimal size and energy usage while ensuring broad frequency response and durability against powerful microwave attacks.  South China Morning Post 

Former acting cyber director named president of cybersecurity think tank.  Former acting national cyber director Kemba Walden has been named president of a new cybersecurity research center sponsored by the Paladin Capital Group venture firm.  The Paladin Global Institute (PGI) will seek to be a “global convening force” for cybersecurity R&D and advocacy through partnerships evaluating risks in cyber, AI, and emerging technologies.  The PGI already has assembled a board of consultants that includes former NSA deputy director Rick Ledgett and former national cyber director Chris Inglis.  In a statement on her PGI appointment, Walden noted that her tenure in the national cyber director’s office demonstrated to her that private-public sector cooperation is critical in addressing cyber threats.  She added that “Paladin is taking a truly innovative approach by establishing this Institute to put forth actionable solutions to make cyberspace and the people who use it safer.”  The Record

Bangladesh official claims cyberattack originating in Ukraine, Germany targeted election — The Bangladesh Election Commission claims that a cyberattack originating in “Ukraine and Germany” caused an election information app to malfunction as voting in a national election was under way on Sunday.  Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was reelected to a fourth straight term amidst record low turnout, according to the BBC.  The Election Commission official secretary, Mohammed Jahangir Alam, did not offer details of the cyberattack but did say the election app had been “slowed down from Ukraine and Germany.”  The Smart Election Management BD app was not used to tally votes, but provided “historical and current data on electoral candidates and associate parties” along with updates on the number of votes cast.  The Cloudflare cybersecurity firm reported that Germany and Ukraine are among the world’s largest sources of distributed denial of service (DDoS) traffic, which “usually indicates the presence of botnets operating from within the country's borders.”  The Record

North Korean hackers continued huge cryptocurrency thefts in 2023.  TRM Labs is out with a research report indicating that North Korea-affiliated hackers stole at least $600 million in cryptocurrency in 2023, a figure that could rise to $700 million if New Year’s Eve’s hack of the Orbit Bridge crypto platform is confirmed to be the work of North Korean gangs.  Cybercriminals linked to the rogue regime are responsible for one-third of all cryptocurrency losses last year, with nearly $3 billion in losses attributed to North Korea since 2017.   According to TRM, North Korean hackers breach digital wallets through compromised private keys that allow them to transfer digital holdings to wallets they control.  Stolen funds are masked by being swapped for a USDT stablecoin or Tron (TRX) cryptocurrency and conversion to hard currency using high-volume OTC brokers.  Cybernews

New Nvidia AI chips for Chinese market expected for 2024 second quarter release.  The world’s leading chipmaker, Nvidia, will begin mass production of AI chips tailored for the Chinese market to meet U.S. export requirements in the second quarter of this year.  The H20 chip originally was scheduled for release in November but was delayed due to integration problems with server manufacturers.  Reuters earlier reported that Chinese companies are testing homegrown alternatives to the H20 over concerns that additional U.S. restrictions may be imposed.  The Chinese search engine giant, Baidu, last year ordered AI chips from Huawei, shifting away from Nvidia.  Nvidia plans two other chips that meet U.S. export rules, the L20 and L2, hoping that the trio of new chips will allow it to sustain its market share in China.  The new chips include most of Nvidia's newest AI features but with reduced computing power to meet the new U.S. rules.  Reuters

Nvidia announces new chip generation designed for AI-enhanced personal computers.  Chips specially designed to add AI capabilities to personal computers have been announced by Nvidia in a move described as a “new era” for the chip sector.  Nvidia, along with Intel and Advanced Micro Devices, claim that AI software incorporated into PC’s is more secure and effective than relying on remote AI cloud services.  Nvidia’s new GEForce RTX 4080 chip boasts more processing cores and faster memory than earlier chip generations.  Nvidia vice president Justin Walker said the new technology will offer “an order of magnitude” improvement over competitor chips when combined with new software and AI optimizations that Nvidia will also offer.  More realistic gaming featuring high-definition images is one of the benefits Nvidia says will result from the new chips.  They also will provide more responsive tools for image-editing software. Nvidia noted that the new product capabilities will not exceed restrictions imposed by the Commerce Department on the export of AI-related chips to China.  Bloomberg

UN space affairs chief calls for global adoption of measures to counter ‘space junk’.  A senior UN official has called on governments and industry to accelerate efforts to put in place voluntary guidelines for the “sustainable use of space” rather than rely on a new global treaty.  Aarti Holla-Maini, the new director of the UN Office of Outer Space Affairs, said that the rapid growth in “space junk” in orbit has intensified concerns over the threat of dangerous collisions in space.  “We do need a multilateral process [and] as much collaboration as possible,” she said.  Rather than the prolonged process of reaching a global treaty on the problem, Holla-Maini said government regulators should quickly adopt voluntary UN guidelines issued in 2019 to boost space sustainability.  The UN guidance includes proposals to enhance space activity, manage debris, and share information on satellite operations and collision prevention measures.  A recent report by the Space Generation Advisory Council to the UN found that some governments have begun integrating UN guidelines into national law, “a number have yet to do so, which presents a potentially major gap.”  Financial Times

Lawmakers raise concerns over UAE AI giant’s ties to China.  The House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party has urged the Commerce Department to investigate G42, a technology company in the United Arab Emirates, to assess whether it should face trade restrictions for its ties to China.  G42, controlled by the UAE ruling family, collaborates with major American tech companies and is involved in the development of artificial intelligence and emerging technologies.  The committee has noted that G42 extensively collaborates with China's military, intelligence services, and state-owned entities.  This has raised concerns that advanced American technology could be redirected to Chinese entities through G42. The committee has asked the Commerce Department to consider imposing export controls on G42 and 13 affiliated companies, most of which are based in China. The Commerce Department has been given until February 2 to take action or provide an explanation for not doing so. While the UAE is a U.S. partner, it has increasingly sought economic and military cooperation with China, raising concerns in Washington.  New York Times

OpenAI pushes back against New York Times suit.  OpenAI asserted in a blog post on Monday that The New York Times is not telling the full story in its lawsuit over OpenAI’s use of Times data. The newspaper filed the suit in December, claiming OpenAI and its largest investor, Microsoft, relied on copyrighted stories to train OpenAI’s ChatGPT chatbot and other artificial intelligence features. In its blog post, OpenAI said the “regurgitation” of material the Times referred to in its suit is the result of a “rare bug” that the company is working to fix. OpenAI also said the Times may have “cherry-picked their examples from many attempts.” In response to the blog post, an attorney for the Times said OpenAI concedes that it has used The Times’ work, along with the work of many others, to build ChatGPT. He said OpenAI seeks “to free-ride on the Times’s massive investment” in journalism without permission or payment.  Bloomberg

Tech giants open regional headquarters in Saudi Arabia amid state pressure.  Several global technology giants, including Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, have received licenses to establish regional headquarters in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. This comes in response to the Saudi government's announcement in February 2021 that it would stop giving contracts to companies without regional headquarters in the country. The move aims to limit "economic leakage" and boost the country's economy by encouraging international companies to establish a substantial presence in Saudi Arabia. The Saudi government offers incentives, such as tax breaks and exemptions, to firms meeting the criteria for establishing headquarters in Riyadh. The recent approvals for regional headquarters also involve other major corporations like Airbus, Oracle, and Pfizer. However, the new rules have faced some confusion and uncertainty among executives regarding their application to different types of businesses and government entities.  Bloomberg

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell, Leighton Durham, and Ryan Simons contributed to this report.

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