[rebelmouse-image 60323897 expand=1 dam=1 alt="OSR Full Logo Header 2.0" site_id=26883708 is_animated_gif="false" original_size="500x200" crop_info="%7B%22image%22%3A%20%22https%3A//assets.rbl.ms/60323897/origin.png%22%2C%20%22thumbnails%22%3A%20%7B%22origin%22%3A%20%22https%3A//assets.rbl.ms/60323897/origin.png%22%2C%20%22300x%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D300%22%2C%20%221000x750%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D1000%26height%3D750%26coordinates%3D116%252C0%252C117%252C0%22%2C%20%22600x600%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D600%26height%3D600%26coordinates%3D150%252C0%252C150%252C0%22%2C%20%222000x1500%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D2000%26height%3D1500%26coordinates%3D116%252C0%252C117%252C0%22%2C%20%221200x400%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D1200%26height%3D400%26coordinates%3D0%252C17%252C0%252C17%22%2C%20%22600x200%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D600%26height%3D200%26coordinates%3D0%252C17%252C0%252C17%22%2C%20%22750x1000%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D750%26height%3D1000%26coordinates%3D175%252C0%252C175%252C0%22%2C%20%221500x2000%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D1500%26height%3D2000%26coordinates%3D175%252C0%252C175%252C0%22%2C%20%221245x700%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D1245%26height%3D700%26coordinates%3D72%252C0%252C72%252C0%22%2C%20%22600x400%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D600%26height%3D400%26coordinates%3D100%252C0%252C100%252C0%22%2C%20%221200x800%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D1200%26height%3D800%26coordinates%3D100%252C0%252C100%252C0%22%2C%20%221200x600%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D1200%26height%3D600%26coordinates%3D50%252C0%252C50%252C0%22%2C%20%22700x1245%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D700%26height%3D1245%26coordinates%3D193%252C0%252C194%252C0%22%2C%20%2235x35%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D35%26height%3D35%22%2C%20%22600x%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D600%22%2C%20%22300x300%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D300%26height%3D300%26coordinates%3D150%252C0%252C150%252C0%22%2C%20%22600x300%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D600%26height%3D300%26coordinates%3D50%252C0%252C50%252C0%22%2C%20%22980x%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D980%22%2C%20%22210x%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D210%22%7D%2C%20%22manual_image_crops%22%3A%20%7B%229x16%22%3A%20%7B%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%22700x1245%22%5D%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20200%2C%20%22width%22%3A%20113%2C%20%22left%22%3A%20193%7D%2C%20%22600x300%22%3A%20%7B%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%22600x300%22%5D%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20200%2C%20%22width%22%3A%20400%2C%20%22left%22%3A%2050%7D%2C%20%223x1%22%3A%20%7B%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%221200x400%22%2C%20%22600x200%22%5D%2C%20%22top%22%3A%2017%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20166%2C%20%22width%22%3A%20500%2C%20%22left%22%3A%200%7D%2C%20%223x2%22%3A%20%7B%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%221200x800%22%2C%20%22600x400%22%5D%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20200%2C%20%22width%22%3A%20300%2C%20%22left%22%3A%20100%7D%2C%20%221x1%22%3A%20%7B%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%22600x600%22%2C%20%22300x300%22%5D%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20200%2C%20%22width%22%3A%20200%2C%20%22left%22%3A%20150%7D%2C%20%223x4%22%3A%20%7B%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%221500x2000%22%2C%20%22750x1000%22%5D%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20200%2C%20%22width%22%3A%20150%2C%20%22left%22%3A%20175%7D%2C%20%2216x9%22%3A%20%7B%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%221245x700%22%5D%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20200%2C%20%22width%22%3A%20356%2C%20%22left%22%3A%2072%7D%2C%20%224x3%22%3A%20%7B%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%222000x1500%22%2C%20%221000x750%22%5D%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20200%2C%20%22width%22%3A%20267%2C%20%22left%22%3A%20116%7D%2C%20%222x1%22%3A%20%7B%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%221200x600%22%2C%20%22600x300%22%5D%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20200%2C%20%22width%22%3A%20400%2C%20%22left%22%3A%2050%7D%7D%7D" caption="" photo_credit="" title=""]

10:00 AM ET, Tuesday, December 5, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines:  

THE TOP STORIES

Israel Pushes Into Southern Gaza’s Main City of Khan Younis.  Israel escalated its offensive in southern Gaza by storming the city of Khan Younis on Tuesday.  The offensive appears to be the biggest Israeli ground assault since the truce between Israel and Hamas expired last week.  Residents reported Israeli tanks and troops in eastern parts of Khan Younis.  Israel had previously told residents in a fifth of the city to evacuate ahead of the assault, but they are now being told to shelter in place during the attack.  An Israeli government spokesperson said this assault is the “second stage” of its military operation aimed at eliminating Hamas.  The spokesperson noted that Israel is open to “constructive feedback” on reducing harm to civilians as long as advice is consistent with its war aims of destroying Hamas.  Reuters New York Times Washington Post

Florida Water Management Agency Reports Attempted Intrusion of IT Network.  A Florida water management district has confirmed it detected “suspicious activity” in its IT environment last week, adding that successful containment measures have been carried out.  While the St. Johns River Water Management District does not have direct control over water utility technology, it does oversee long-term drinking water supplies in the state and works closely with utilities on water supply issues.  A ransomware gang reported Friday that it had attacked the district agency, and posted samples of what it described as stolen information.  A spokesperson for the district said the agency is monitoring IT systems “to ensure there is no ongoing, malicious persistence.”  The reported intrusion comes on the heels of cyberattacks against water systems in Pennsylvania and Texas.  On Friday, CISA, the FBI, NSA, the Environmental Protection Agency, and the Israel National Cyber Directorate (INCD) released an advisory warning that a hacking group known as CyberAv3ngers is connected to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and is “actively targeting and compromising Israeli-made Unitronics Vision Series programmable logic controllers (PLCs).”   The Record

Houthis May Not Be Specifically Targeting U.S. Warships, Pentagon Says.  The Pentagon said yesterday that attacks by Houthis in Yemen may not be specifically targeting U.S. warships even though the U.S. Navy has shot down drones and missiles in recent weeks. In the latest incidents, three commercial vessels were attacked by drones and missiles in international waters in the southern Red Sea on Sunday. The Houthis claimed responsibility, but said the attacks were aimed at two Israeli vessels in the area.  The USS Carney shot down three drones in response to distress calls from the vessels, which the U.S. military said were connected to 14 countries. A Pentagon spokesperson said it could not be immediately determined whether the Carney was an intended target of the Houthi attacks. Reuters 

House Explosion Near D.C.  A house in Arlington, Virginia exploded into flames last night as police were getting ready to search it following reports of gunfire and a standoff with the man who lived there. The Arlington County Police Department said police arrived at the home around 4:45 pm after gunshots were reported. A preliminary investigation indicated that the man inside had fired a flare gun about 30 or 40 times into the surrounding neighborhood. As officers were preparing to serve a search warrant, the man fired several rounds from what police believe was a firearm. The explosion occurred at 8:25 pm. As of early this morning, police had not identified the man or what his condition was. Police advised on social media that people avoid the area.  New York Times

THE ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

U.S. Says Too Soon to Assess if Israel Doing Enough to Protect Civilians in Gaza.  U.S. State Department spokesman Matt Miller said that “it’s too early to make a definitive assessment” of whether Israel is heeding U.S. advice and doing enough to protect civilians in Gaza.  His comments come after reports that Israeli air strikes in southern Gaza killed and wounded dozens of Palestinians, including in areas Israel told people to seek shelter.  Miller noted that “Israel has identified specific neighborhoods where they planned operations,” which is “an improvement on what’s happened before” in northern Gaza.  White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan likewise said the U.S. expects “Israel to follow through in not striking” designated areas. The U.S. is monitoring the situation closely as it does not want to see the same level of “civilian casualties” and large-scale displacement of Palestinians in southern Gaza.  Reuters

Israel Considers Flooding Gaza Tunnels with Seawater.  U.S. officials say Israel is considering pumping seawater into the Hamas tunnel network in Gaza, a tactic that could destroy the tunnels but also threaten Gaza’s water supply. The Israeli Defense Forces assembled at least five large seawater pumps about a mile north of the Al Shati refugee camp last month. Israel informed the U.S. of the option early last month, leading to a discussion of the feasibility and possible environmental effects of the plan. Reactions among U.S. officials were mixed. Some privately expressed concerns, but others support disabling the tunnels.  Wall Street Journal Reuters

Qatar’s Emir Urges Gaza Ceasefire.  Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hanad Al Thani is pushing to restore the truce between Israel and Hamas and achieve a more “comprehensive ceasefire” to end the conflict in Gaza.  Speaking at a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit in Doha on Tuesday, the emir accused Israel of committing “genocide” in Gaza and accused the international community of “turning their back” on the Palestinian people.  He added that the U.N. Security Council must force Israel to cease military actions and return to negotiations.  The GCC summit — which is being attended by Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iman, Kuwait, and Turkey — is set to focus on a potential resumption of a truce in Gaza and the reconstruction and future governance of the territory after the conflict.  Qatar has positioned itself as a mediator in the conflict.  Several Hamas political leaders are based in Qatar.  Al Jazeera Reuters

Turkey Warns Israel Against Killing Hamas Targets on Turkish Soil.  A senior Turkish intelligence official speaking on condition of anonymity says Turkey’s MIT intelligence agency has warned the Israeli Mossad not to try to kill members of Hamas in Turkish territory. The official said that such unilateral undertakings would seriously affect Turkish-Israeli relations. The issue came to the forefront when the Israeli public broadcaster Kan reported Israel plans to target Hamas leaders outside the Palestinian territories. Some Hamas leaders are known to visit Istanbul. Bloomberg 

Israel Accuses Hamas of Sexual Violence in October 7th Attack.  Israeli police are investigating accusations of sex crimes by some of the Hamas attackers they arrested after the October 7 attack. Meni Binyamin, head of the International Crime Investigators Unit of the Israeli police, has said that “dozens” of women some men were raped. The investigation faces difficulties in collecting evidence, including the fact that many women were killed and buried with their clothes before police investigators could examine them. Hamas media advisor Taher al-Nono denied Hamas fighters committed any sexual assaults and called for an international investigation. A U.N. commission of inquiry investigating accusations of war crimes on both sides of the conflict will take up the sexual assault accusations, but Israel has accused the commission of bias and said it will not cooperate with its investigation. Reuters New York Times 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine says it Downs 10 of 17 Russian Drones.  Ukrainian authorities report that Ukraine’s military downed 10 of 17 Russian drones launched in overnight attacks.  Ukraine’s Air Force said the drones were intercepted over “various regions” of the country.  The governor of Ukraine’s western Lviv region said three drones hit infrastructure there, but damage was minimal and there were no reported casualties.  Officials in Ukraine’s eastern Kharkiv region said drones struck civilian targets like homes in several settlements.  Ukraine’s Air Force added that six S-300 missiles were fired at civilian targets in the eastern Donetsk and southern Kherson regions.  Reuters

Russia Claims it Downs 41 Ukrainian Drones.  Russia’s defense ministry claims that Russian air defense systems intercepted 41 Ukrainian drones overnight and early Tuesday.  The ministry claimed 26 drones were destroyed over Russian territory and 15 were downed over the Sea of Azov and the Crimean Peninsula.  The ministry did not say if there was any damage caused by the alleged attacks.  Reuters could not immediately independently confirm the report, and Ukraine has not commented.  Reuters 

U.S. Senate Schedules Vote on Ukraine Aid, Zelensky Invited to Virtually Brief Senators.  U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer scheduled the first procedural vote on President Joe Biden’s request for $106 in funding for Ukraine, Israel, and U.S. border security.  The vote is set for Wednesday and is expected to fail due to Republican demands for stronger border security measures.  Democrats have said there have been too many concessions and oppose hard-line border security demands.  Despite the tensions, there are still signals from both parties to continue negotiations.  Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnel has insisted that Republicans are “still at the table” on the matter.  An unnamed Democratic senator told Politico that “deadlines and emergencies and last minute snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory seems to be par for the course,” suggesting that a failed vote may increase urgency and focus on approving aid.  The White House has warned that the U.S. will run out of money to support Ukraine by the end of the year if Congress does not approve additional funding.  Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines will hold classified briefings with senators on Ukraine on Tuesday.  Schumer said that the administration has also invited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to virtually brief senators on the situation in Ukraine.  Bloomberg Kyiv Independent Politico The Hill 

Sullivan Calls on Congress to Approve New Ukraine Aid.  U.S. national security advisor Jake Sullivan on Monday urged Congress to approve President Joe Biden’s request for additional financial support for Ukraine, arguing that the funding already provided has been crucial in Kyiv’s struggle against Russia. Speaking during a press briefing, Sullivan said that funding for Ukraine has been put to a “remarkable use… saving Kyiv, saving Kharkiv, winning back Kherson,” and helping Ukraine to liberate 50% of its land. He said that U.S. aid has prevented Moscow from dominating Ukraine, and that more assistance will not only hinder Russian advances but also further “our own national security.”  Critics of further aid have argued that Kyiv has not presented a strong-enough war strategy or a plan for peace. On Monday, House Speaker Mike Johnson protested that the “Biden administration has failed to substantively address” such concerns.  Sullivan maintained, however, that any vote against aid would “hurt democracy and help dictators.”  Kyiv Independent New York Times

Hungary’s Orban Demands E.U. Summit Not Discuss Ukraine Membership.  Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban wants the E.U. to drop Ukraine’s membership and discussions on further aid for Kyiv from the agenda of the bloc’s upcoming summit.  Orban said in a letter to European Council President Charles Michel that the E.U. should first hold a “strategic discussion” on Ukraine’s future with the bloc, warning that forcing a decision on potential membership without consensus could destroy E.U. unity.  The bloc must unanimously agree to enlargement and its long-term budget, which includes 50 billion euros ($54.1 billion) for Ukraine.  Michel’s office has not commented on the letter.  The European Commission has recommended that the E.U. start membership talks with Ukraine once it completes certain reforms on corruption, lobbying concerns, and rights of minorities.  Orban has claimed that Ukraine is “light years” away from joining the bloc.  Orban is currently seeking the release of billions in funding for Hungary that the E.U. froze over rule of law and corruption concerns in Budapest.  Some of the funds have been released in recent weeks.  Orban’s letter signaled that the newly released funds have not changed his position on Ukraine’s membership.  Associated Press Bloomberg

Wave of Crime in Russia Linked to Convicts Freed to Fight in Ukraine.  Convict soldiers enlisted to fight in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have committed violent crimes after returning home.  Around 30,000 former prisoners were promised freedom through a secretive presidential pardon program if they completed six-month contracts to fight in Ukraine.  Many suffered traumatic experiences in the war, having been part of underequipped, all-convict units deployed in near-suicidal assaults.  Others are accused of complicity in war crimes and are emboldened by the Kremlin narrative portraying them as heroes. Rights groups say that after their contracts are up, the ex-prisoners are not given proper reintegration support, putting them and the communities they return to at risk.  As a result, many have been involved in violent crimes such as murder and sexual assault.  Despite this, the Kremlin maintains its policy of pardoning ex-convicts for recruitment for the war effort.  The wave of crime linked to this issue has the potential to challenge Moscow’s narrative that its invasion of Ukraine is protecting Russia.  New York Times Wall Street Journal

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Iran-Linked Hackers Claim Records Theft from Israeli Medical Center.  An Iran-linked hacking group known as Malek Team has claimed to have leaked thousands of medical records from the Ziv Medical Center in the Israeli city of Safed near the border with Syria and Lebanon.  The group says that it accessed 500 GB of data, including records of Israeli soldiers among 700,000 documents reportedly containing patient data such as disease descriptions and prescriptions.  The Malek Team began releasing purported documents on its Telegram channel over the weekend while not specifying when the attack took place.  Israel’s National Cyber Directorate last week issued a warning about a system attack at the Ziv Medical Center, noting that “the incident has been identified and contained without disrupting or affecting various systems and the operation of the medical center.”  The Jerusalem Post reported that this is the third time in four months that the Ziv center has been targeted by hackers.  The Malek Team also claimed successful intrusions of other Israeli systems, including the Ono Academic College and Israeli tech and media companies.  The Record

COP28 Climate Summit Explores AI Energy Consumption Trends, Impacts.  The COP28 global climate summit in Dubai is taking up a new challenge, the fact that AI operations consume much more energy than other forms of computing.  Little is known about AI’s net impact on climate change, but the prospect of the technology becoming one of the world’s biggest energy consumers is receiving attention at the summit.  Of particular interest is the summit’s call for AI developers to measure and publicize data on their energy usage and sources.  Last week, the U.N. and Microsoft announced the establishment of an AI-powered climate data hub to track progress in reducing emissions.  As Microsoft President Brad Smith said, "you can't fix what you can't measure."  According to the International Energy Agency, data center energy consumption continues to grow despite impressive efficiency gains.  Currently, cloud computing services and other data centers consume about 1 percent of electricity, which some projections estimate will grow to about 6 percent by 2030.  However, Google researchers say some papers grossly overestimate machine learning energy use, suggesting that machine learning energy consumption could soon level off, and then recede.  The E.U. has plans to start requiring all but the continent’s smallest data centers to report emissions under new corporate sustainability reporting requirements.  Companies in California with annual revenues over $1 billion will have to report their emissions by 2026.  Axios

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

The Americas

Yellen to Travel to Mexico.  U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is visiting Mexico this week for several high-level meetings, including with Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.  The Treasury Department said that Yellen’ trip will focus on boosting cooperation with the Mexican government to counter fentanyl trafficking and strengthening economic ties.  The Treasury announced on Monday that it formed a new “strike force” to coordinate fentanyl investigations across internal government groups.  An official told Bloomberg News that Mexico's Finance Ministry will push for greater financial integration, especially on digital finance, and strengthen supply chains, investment in energy and infrastructure, and cooperation on countering illicit finance.  Bloomberg 

Asia and Oceania

China Criticizes U.S. Commerce Secretary’s ‘Threat’ Remarks.  Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said on Monday that the U.S. should work with China “to deliver on the common understandings reached in the San Francisco meeting” and should “stop seeing China as a hypothetical enemy.” Wang’s criticism came in response to U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo’s comments at a forum on Saturday in which she said she needed more funding to prevent China from gaining U.S. chip technology for military purposes. Raimondo called it “the biggest threat we’ve ever had,” adding that “China is not our friend.”  Bloomberg

China’s Hidden Debt, Economy Troubles.  China is turning its attention to an issue that has been building for years: the accumulation of massive debt by cities and provinces across the country. The International Monetary Fund and U.S. banks estimate the total outstanding off-balance-sheet government debt at somewhere between $7 trillion and $11 trillion. Economists say a large portion of that amount — somewhere between $400 billion and $800 billion — is hidden debt, which is at high risk for default. The central government is now attempting to deal with the problem systematically, including swapping out some hidden debt for new, explicit government debt. Moody’s Investors Service lowered its outlook on China’s credit rating to “negative” from “stable” today.  Wall Street Journal

Japanese Islands Call for Plan to Deal with Potential Refugee Crisis in Chinese Invasion of Taiwan.  Residents of the distant Japanese island of Yonaguni, located just 110 kilometers from Taiwan, foresee a potential refugee crisis in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Though Japan has initiated its largest defense build-up in decades, allocating $290 billion to the effort, the government has not created a plan to handle a potential influx of Taiwanese refugees fleeing a Chinese invasion, sparking fears in far-flung places like Yonaguni.  Reuters interviewed more than two dozen Japanese residents, as well as current and former officials, who said that thousands of refugees could travel to Yonaguni in vessels if China were to invade Taiwan.  Yonaguni mayor Kenichi Itokazu said that Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno had not responded to pleas for help in preparing for this scenario. The Taiwanese foreign ministry did not reveal whether it had had conversations with Tokyo about the issue, and a spokesperson for the Japanese Cabinet Secretariat said that “relevant government departments would work together to respond" to a humanitarian crisis. The spokesperson would not say if there was a plan developed for Yonaguni, or whether Mayor Itokazu had directly asked Matsuno for help. The nine current and six former officials who spoke with Reuters suggested that Japan has focused on bolstering its military amid regional tensions, rather than readying for a potential refugee crisis. A U.S. official speaking anonymously said Tokyo is hesitant to institute humanitarian preparations on Yonaguni because it could make Beijing believe Japan is actively preparing for a war in Taiwan. In an interview last week, a retired lieutenant general in Japan’s Ground Self-Defense Force told Nikkei Asia that Japan must be prepared to take in more than 100,000 refugees. Reuters Nikkei Asia

U.S. Official Travels to India to Discuss Attempted Assassination of Sikh Separatist. Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer traveled to India on Monday to discuss the attempted assassination of a Sikh separatist leader in the U.S. with an investigative panel. The U.S. Department of Justice claimed last week that an Indian government official took part in an assassination plot targeting a Sikh separatist leader in New York.  The Indian government said it launched a formal investigation into the matter and said that the “necessary follow-up action(s)” would be taken. This incident came just two months after the assassination of Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Vancouver, Canada. The Canadian government likewise alleged involvement by Indian officials, which New Delhi denied.  President Joe Biden, Secretary of State Blinken, and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan have all raised the matter with the highest levels of the Indian government.  Separately, Finer also met with Indian foreign minister S. Jaishankar and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval to discuss post-war involvement in Gaza and attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea.  Reuters 

Europe

Putin Tours Exhibition of Russian Achievements as Elections Approach.  Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday toured a large exhibition in Moscow celebrating Russia's achievements.  As part of his tour, he viewed a simulation of a "nuclear button” and saw a mock control panel for the launching of a nuclear test. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Putin has regularly reminded the West of Moscow’s nuclear power, and threatened to destroy any enemy who launches atomic weapons at Russia. He has denied, however, that the Kremlin is "brandishing" its nuclear arsenal. The tour on Monday came ahead of Putin’s expected announcement that he will run for another six-year term as president in March. Confirmation of a bid for re-election is expected next week, though critics say it is only a formality, as there is no one to oppose the incumbent leader, who has the support and backing of the state and media.  Reuters 

Poland National Security Chief Warns that Russia Could Attack NATO Within Three Years.  Polish National Security Bureau chief Jacek Siewiera said yesterday that Russia could attack NATO within three years. Siewiera’s comment followed a report published by the German think tank DAP warning that Russia might launch a direct attack against NATO within six to 10 years. Siewiera suggested Russia might target Eastern Europe, and he expressed support for increasing the size of the Polish military. Kyiv Independent 

Gershkovich Detained in Russia for 250 Days.  Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, charged by the Russian government with espionage, spent his 250^th day in pre-trial custody on Monday. Attorney Ivan Pavlov, who has handled several high-profile espionage cases in Russia, said it is likely that Gershkovich’s detention will last much longer. Pavlov said it usually takes up to a year and a half for a preliminary investigation to be completed before a court hearing, and a hearing likely would take up to six months. If he were convicted, Gershkovich would have the opportunity to appeal. Last week, a Moscow court extended Gershkovich’s detention until January 30, the third time an extension has been ordered. The U.S. Embassy in Moscow said it was “deeply concerned” about the extension and reiterated its call for Gershkovich’s release. Wall Street Journal Editor-in-Chief Emma Tucker published a letter to readers saying Gershkovich was wrongfully detained and that it is time for him to come home. She also said President Vladimir Putin’s clamp-down on independent media in Russia now extends to the foreign press.  Gerhskovich and the Wall Street Journal deny accusations against him, and the U.S. deems him wrongfully detained.  New York Times Wall Street Journal 

Africa

Niger Ends E.U. Military Accord. Niger’s ruling junta has withdrawn from a military partnership with the E.U., revoking permission for an E.U. civilian mission launched in 2012 to bolster local security forces against militants.  The junta had previously demanded the withdrawal of French troops who were helping to fight Islamist militants. Reuters Bloomberg  

Guinea-Bissau President Dissolves Parliament. Guinea-Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embalo issued a Presidential Decree to dissolve the nation’s opposition-controlled parliament less than six months after the election and days after he said the army thwarted a coup attempt. Parliament leadership rejected the presidential move as unconstitutional, noting that the constitution states parliament cannot be dissolved in the first 12 months following an election. This is the second time in the last two years that Embalo has dissolved parliament, citing “unresolvable differences” with the legislature. It is unclear whether parliament will continue to sit despite the decree. Associated Press 

Nigeria’s President Orders Investigation Into Drone Strike that Killed 85 Civilians.  Nigerian President Bola Tinubu on Tuesday ordered an investigation into a military drone attack over the weekend that reportedly killed at least 85 civilians and injured at least 66 others in the northern Kaduna state.  A Nigerian army spokesman said the drone strike was meant to target armed gangs in the area.  The spokesman said aerial patrols “wrongly analyzed and misinterpreted” the activities of civilians in the area as similar to those of bandits.  The investigation into the incident is aimed at identifying human and artificial intelligence lapses in the army.  BBC CNN Reuters 

The data cutoff for this product was 8:00a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell, Emma Fisk, and Tiffany Krueger contributed to this report. 

Read deeply-experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis and opinion in The Cipher Brief