10:00 AM ET, Tuesday, December 12, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines:
WHAT CIPHER BRIEF EXPERTS ARE SAYING
TOP STORIES
Norwegian Tanker Attacked by Missile in Bab el-Mandeb Strait off Yemen. Officials reported Tuesday that a missile struck a Norwegian-flagged tanker traveling to Italy via the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which divides East Africa from the Arabian Peninsula. The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) reported that the oil and chemical tanker, called the Strinda, was hit by the missile around midnight on Monday. The weapon appears to have been an Anti-Ship Cruise Missile (ASCM), which was “launched from a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen.” Geir Belsnes, chief executive of the Bergen-based shipping firm Mowinckels Rederi, reported that the ship caught fire after being struck, but the attack did not result in any injuries. He said the blaze was extinguished, and that the tanker proceeded to a safe port. The U.S. military said the USS Mason, an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer, responded to the incident and rendered assistance. The Iran-backed Houthis took responsibility for the attack. A Houthi military spokesperson said it fired a rocket at the tanker after it refused to respond to warnings. The spokesperson also reiterated that attacks on ships in the region bound for Israeli ports have been in support of the Palestinians. Associated Press Al Jazeera Deutsche Welle Forbes Reuters
Zelensky Meets with U. S. Defense Executives in Washington. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with executives of American defense companies at Ukraine House in Washington DC yesterday, and in a post on Telegram following the meeting he expressed gratitude to everyone involved in the production of the weapons that help his country defend itself. Zelensky said Ukraine is ready to produce more military hardware such as artillery, missiles and air defense systems, but needs support from such companies. He also said Ukraine plans to invite U.S. companies to take a stake in his country’s defense companies. Ukrinform Washington Post
Moscow Announces ‘Major’ New Agreement With Iran. Russia and Iran have agreed to expedite the development of a "major new interstate agreement," according to a statement from the Russian foreign ministry. While the scope of the agreement wasn't detailed, the announcement comes amidst increasing political, trade, and military ties between Moscow and Tehran, which has raised concerns in the United States and Israel. Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin held talks in Moscow with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. Both Iran and North Korea, adversaries of the U.S., have recently strengthened relations with Russia. Last month the Kremlin indicated that Moscow & Tehran were strengthening their military partnership, but Russia did not comment on the White House's suggestion that Iran might provide Russia with ballistic missiles for use against Ukraine. Reuters
ISRAEL'S WAR ON HAMAS
[Ed Note: Don't miss today's Subscriber+Members only briefing on The Strategic Repercussions of Israel's War with Hamas. Moderated by Cipher Brief Expert and former Director of The Intelligence Project at Harvard University, Paul Kolbe. Subscriber+Members receive invitations to register via email]
Israel Targets Hamas Strongholds in Gaza. Israel’s military said it is engaged in “fierce and difficult battles” focused on Hamas “strongholds” in Khan Younis, the largest city in southern Gaza, and Shejaiya and Jabalya in northern Gaza. An Israeli military spokesperson said that Israeli troops have taken control of areas around Palestine Square “in the heart” of Gaza City and that they have found an underground tunnel network between the city’s north and the area round the al-Shifa Hospital. The Israel Defense Forces also said that they found a Hamas launch site in Jabalya. The claims could not be immediately independently confirmed. New York Times Washington Post
Israel Open Additional Gaza Aid Screening Site. The Israel Defense Forces and COGAT, the entity in Israel’s defense ministry that deals with Palestinian civilian affairs, said they are now using the Kerem Shalom border crossing as an additional screening site for aid deliveries to Gaza. The move aims to increase the number of aid trucks that can enter Gaza each day. The Kerem Shalom crossing will only be used for aid inspection. Israel will also continue aid screening at the Nitzana crossing. The Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt remains the only place that aid can enter Gaza. Washington Post Times of Israel
Biden Reiterates Support for Israel. Warns that Public Opinion Can Shift. President Joe Biden reiterated his support of Israel on Monday at a White House Hanukkah celebration, saying that the U.S. will continue providing military assistance to Israel “until they get rid of Hamas.” He also touched on efforts to free hostages held by Hamas in Gaza and to provide humanitarian aid to “innocent Palestinian civilians” in the territory. Biden additionally warned of the risk of a prolonged war and continued civilian casualties in Gaza, saying that Israel must be “careful” since global public opinion of its military actions “can shift overnight.” Biden also condemned rising antisemitism following the Hamas attacks on October 7 and touched on his administration’s efforts to counter hate crimes and protect the Jewish American community. Bloomberg Washington Post
France to Host Meeting on Tackling Hamas Financing, Online Activities. Diplomats say France will host a meeting of officials from more than 20 countries in Paris tomorrow to produce a strategy to curb financing for Hamas and its online activities. Israel will be included, but no Arab states will be represented. France, Germany are attempting to get the European Union to impose sanctions on Hamas following the October 7 attack on Israel. French diplomats say they want a strategy that encompasses as many countries as possible to damage Hamas finances and its ability to disseminate propaganda on social media networks. Officials from France, Israel and the U.S. are scheduled to make presentations at the meeting. Reuters
EU Considers Imposing Sanctions on some Jewish Settlers in Occupied West Bank. E.U. foreign policy chief Josep Borrell on Monday said he plans to propose sanctions on “hostile” Jewish settlers who commit violence against Palestinian civilians in the occupied West Bank. He said that the bloc was “alarmed” by reports of the “violence in the West Bank by extremist settlers.” He also denounced the Israeli government for allowing 1,700 additional housing units in the city of Jerusalem, which Brussels views as a breach of international law. After attending a meeting with EU foreign ministers in Brussels, Borrell told reporters that it is time to “move from words to actions” and to begin “adopting the measures we can take with regard to the acts of violence against the Palestinian population in the West Bank.” Since the October 7th Hamas attack against Israel, Jewish settlers have increasingly assaulted Palestinians, with at least 275 people having been killed in the occupied swath of land in recent months. Borrell admitted that ministers are not entirely behind the sanctions plan, but promised to work with other EU authorities to make a list of prominent settlers who have been involved in assaults. He said he will argue the settlers should be sanctioned for human rights abuses, though he did not provide many details of what the restrictions will entail. The U.S. just last week announced a visa ban on Israeli settlers who attacked Palestinians. Al Jazeera Reuters
RUSSIA'S WAR ON UKRAINE
UK Defense Ministry Says Avdiivka Experiencing Fierce Fighting. The U.K. Ministry of Defense reported Monday that the town of Avdiivka, located in Donetsk Oblast, continues to experience the most intense, severe battles of the war. The ministry said that Russia’s offensives continue to be marked by the presence of largely dismounted infantry attacks, often Shtorm-Z units. Ukrainian data suggests that on certain days, close to 40% of all combat engagements in all likelihood take place in the small zone of Avdiivka. The ministry said that Ukraine’s forces have most likely performed successful counterattacks, preventing Moscow from seizing control of the settlement of Stepove, where Russia is trying part of a pincer movement to surround and secure Avdiivka and its fortified industrial area. U.K. Ministry of Defense X
Russia Continues Recurrent Attacks on Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian officials reported Russian assaults on eight communities along the Sumy Oblast region’s border on Monday. Russian forces reportedly fired 18 times over the day, striking the settlements of Esman, Yunakivka, Krasnopillia, Velyka Pysarivka, Khotin, Druzhbivka, Seredyna-Buda, and Znob-Novhorodske. The Russian military reportedly used mortar, artillery, rocket and drones in their attacks, and dropped mines onto one community. Sumy’s administration recorded 70 explosions over the course of the day. The village of Velyka Pysarivka, which lies seven kilometers west of the Ukraine’s border with Russia and has a population of 3,900, experienced the most severe assaults, with 26 blasts reported in the area. Kyiv Independent
Sweden Announces $133 Million Winter Aid Package for Ukraine. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson announced the largest humanitarian aid package ever given to Ukraine by Sweden, worth 1.4 billion Swedish krona ($133 million).The largest portion, 900 million krona ($86 million), is designated to the World Bank’s Ukraine Relief, Recover, Reconstruction, and Reform Trust fund for energy, housing, health, and transportation infrastructure. 300 million krona ($29 million) is set aside to the European Development Bank’s environmental and energy fund, 100 million krona ($9.5 million) for the Grain for agricultural exports, 75 million krona ($7.1 million) to UNESCO to build air raid shelters in schools, and 25 million krona (2.4 million) to the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency to support Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. Swedish Aid Minister Johan Forssell said Russia attacks on civilian infrastructure have “devastating consequences” and hopes the aid will help Ukraine cope with Russian attacks during the winter. Kyiv Independent
International Monetary Fund Approves $900 Million in Funding for Ukraine. Shortly before her meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky on Monday, International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief Kristalina Georgieva and the IMF’s executive board approved a $900 million disbursement for Ukraine. Georgieva and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reportedly discussed the IMF board’s near-unanimous support for Ukrainian war efforts, with the exception of Russia. Paving the way to this disbursement was the approval of an extension of the four-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) loan approved earlier this year. This will bring IMF funding of Ukraine this year to $4.5 billion. Georgieva praised the Ukrainian economy’s resilience in the face of the “enormous social and economic costs” posed by Russia. IMF mission chief for Ukraine, Gavin Gray, has called on Ukraine to focus on external commercial debt restructuring in 2024 to restore debt sustainability. Gray also reported that Ukraine, while struggling to obtain external financing, was not necessarily in as dire of a position as it was before the initial loan review. The IMF will conduct a third review of the EFF this spring, focused on finding examples that Ukraine is moving to bolster tax revenue. Reuters
Ukraine says 100 Trucks Pass Through Border Crossing with Poland. Ukraine reports that around 100 trucks passed through the Yahodyn-Dorohusk crossing between Ukraine and Poland on Monday. Ukrainian deputy infrastructure minister Serhiy Derkach confirmed that the crossing had been reopened and that the Ukrainian government is working to open other crossings. He added that there was an attempt by protesters to block the road again, but traffic has continued. Media reports said the local Polish mayor moved to reopen the crossing to support local jobs. Polish truckers have blocked Yahodyn-Dorohusk and several other border crossings with Ukraine since November to protest the removal of restrictions on Ukrainian trucking firms operating in the E.U. Slovak truckers have launched similar protests. Both the Polish and Slovak truckers say it is hard to compete with the unrestricted access of Ukrainian counterparts. Kyiv Independent Reuters
Media Reports Brazil’s Lula Declined Meeting with Zelensky. The Brazilian news outlet O Globo reported yesterday that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva declined Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s request for a meeting over the weekend. O Globo reported sources said Zelensky’s plane stopped in Brasilia for refueling Saturday evening and took off two hours later. Brazil’s Foreign Ministry reportedly sent Europe and North America Secretary Maria Luiza Escorel to meet with Zelensky. Sources told El Globo that da Silva was attending the Mercosur summit in Rio de Janeiro at the time Zelensky requested the meeting, and that the request was made at the last minute. Zelensky met with several Latin American leaders at the inauguration of Javier Milei as president of Argentina in Buenos Aires on Sunday, a ceremony President da Silva attended. Zelensky and da Silva last met on September 20 on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York. While da Silva has said Ukraine has the right to defend itself, Brazil has not sent Ukraine military aid or joined in international sanctions against Russia. Kyiv Independent
CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
Ukraine's Biggest Mobile Operator Suffers Massive Hacker Attack. Ukraine’s largest mobile network operator said it was the victim of a massive cyberattack today which temporarily knocked its cellular and internet signal offline. Kyivstar said it was working to repair the damage and was cooperating with law enforcement officials. Kyivstar also said the personal data of its users was not compromised. There was no immediate word on who might be responsible for the hack. Separately, the co-founder of Monobank, a major Ukrainian payment system, said in a social media post that his company is suffering a distributed denial of service attack, but that everything is “under control.” Reuters Washington Post
Commerce Chief Says Nvidia Confirms Restrictions on Advanced chips to China. U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo on Monday said that chipmaker Nvidia Corporation will continue to sell AI chips having commercial applications to China, adding that “what we cannot allow them to ship is the most sophisticated, highest processing power AI chips, which would enable China to train their frontier models." Raimondo said Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told her that he is “crystal clear” on the government’s policy and promised that “we don't want to break the rules. Tell us the rules, we'll work with you." Meanwhile, during a visit to Vietnam, Huang confirmed plans to establish a design facility in the country. A Vietnamese government statement following Huang’s meeting with Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh described the facility as way of “attracting talent from around the world to contribute to the development of Vietnam’s semiconductor ecosystem and digitalization.” Nvidia is scheduled to discuss semiconductor cooperation agreements with Vietnamese tech companies and authorities this week, according to Reuters. Reuters South China Morning Post Bloomberg
White House To Begin Multi-Sector Discussions on Global Data Flow Policy. The White House national security and economic teams will meet on Wednesday with representatives of industry, labor, and human rights groups to discuss a new U.S. policy about global management of data flows used in areas like AI development and advanced manufacturing. The meeting on Wednesday is the first of several that are part of a review of national data policy that was launched in November. A key issue is articulating a clear U.S. position on the rules governing the global Internet as cross-border data flows play an expanding role in economics, privacy rights, and national security. The new and growing sector of digital trade, which includes e-commerce, video streaming, and apps, lacks multinational rules and faces unprecedented challenges as countries exercise more control on data. A senior administration official said while the U.S. maintains its support for a free and open Internet, the country also needs to adjust policies to meet national security and privacy concerns as well as concerns about competitiveness as big tech companies dominate the sector. The White House review of national data policy follows the administration’s decision in October to withdraw a decades-old and bipartisan U.S. trade position that supported protections for tech companies and the unrestricted cross-border data flows. Critics argue the shift has opened the door for China, which has one of the world’s most restrictive digital marketplaces, to set the rules of the road for the global internet. Bloomberg
U.S.-E.U. Cyber Dialogue Focuses on Critical Infrastructure, Deterring ‘Malign’ Actors. The 9th U.S.-EU Cyber Dialogue in Brussels last week resulted in the two sides agreeing to bolster security in cyberspace while promoting opportunities for all nations to realize benefits from modern digital technologies. Representatives reviewed joint efforts aimed at strengthening the resilience of critical infrastructure as well as security for hardware and software, with sector-specific discussions of the cybersecurity of space systems and energy infrastructure. A statement issued by participating organizations, which included the European External Action Service, the European Commission, and the State Department’s cyberspace and digital policy bureau, emphasized the shared commitment “to address malign behavior in cyberspace” through collaboration on cyber defense and joint efforts “to hold states accountable for and to prevent, deter, and respond to malicious cyber activities.” The dialogue also noted the two sides desire to pursue broader cross-regional collaboration, including with Latin America, the Indo-Pacific, and Africa. IndustrialCyber
New York Plans $1 Billion Investment in Albany Complex for Advanced Chip Development. New York State plans to invest $1 billion for the expansion of chip research activities in line with the state’s goal to maintain its status as a global semiconductor hub. The plan includes the purchase of a new version of highly sophisticated manufacturing equipment and a new building to house it. Governor Kathy Hochul made the announcement in Albany, describing the investment as a national priority in the face of Chinese efforts to dominate the sector. “We have no intention of letting that happen,” she said. State officials say the initiative should attract $9 billion in additional investments from the chip industry. They also look to the program to help the state’s chances to be selected as home for a new National Semiconductor Technology Center, which will be funded as part of the research segment of the CHIPS Act. The location for the semiconductor initiative is the Albany Nanotech Complex, which is owned by a state-affiliated nonprofit, NY CREATES. With the state investment, Albany Nanotech will acquire a next-generation extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine from the Dutch company, ASML, which will allow the development of much more advanced chips. The machine is expected to arrive in Albany in late 2025. New York Times Wall Street Journal
Defense Interceptor Successfully Intercepts Ballistic Missile in Testing. The U.S. Missile Defense Agency’s Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI) - designed to defend against intercontinental ballistic missile attacks from Iran and North Korea - successfully intercepted an intermediate-range ballistic missile in tests on Monday. The updated GBI that was tested used the Raytheon-designed Capability Enhanced-II Block 1 Exo-Atmospheric Kill Vehicle (EKV), which is capable of being used for “closer range engagements,” according to the Missile Defense Agency. Sensor data developed by Raytheon also allowed for additional shots against threat targets. The upgraded GBI will reportedly be available in the next Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) capability delivery. C4ISRNET
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
Asia and Oceania
Philippines Says Military Chief was Aboard Ship Rammed by Chinese Vessels. The Philippines said yesterday that its Armed Forces Chief of Staff Romeo Brawner was onboard a ship that was sprayed with a water cannon and rammed by Chinese vessels in the South China Sea over the weekend. Brawner said in a radio interview that he was unhurt and that he did not believe China knew he was onboard the ship. Manila said Chinese ships repeatedly fired water cannons at its resupply vessels, causing serious engine damage to one, and called the incident a “serious escalation.” The Philippines filed diplomatic protests and has summoned China’s ambassador over what it called Beijing’s “aggressive” actions in the South China Sea. China’s foreign ministry said it lodged a strong protest with the Philippines over what it said was a collision on Sunday. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said the Philippine vessels ignored Chinese coast guard warnings and “insisted on rushing into” waters near the Second Thomas Shoal. A Pentagon spokesman yesterday reaffirmed the mutual defense agreement between Washington and Manila and accused China of “unsafe…operational behavior.” Reuters
South Korea, US to Hold New Round of Nuclear Consultation Talks. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s office confirmed today that South Korea and the U.S. will hold talks on nuclear deterrence on Friday in Washington. The meeting of the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) comes five months after the group’s initial session. Yoon and President Biden announced the formation of the NCG during a summit in April as part of a new “Washington Declaration” in which South Korea renewed a pledge not to pursue nuclear weapons of its own. Yoon has touted the NCG as an upgrade of the alliance in an effort to support “extended deterrence” against North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. Reuters
Suicide Bombing in Pakistan Kills 23 Soldiers. In a pre-dawn attack, an explosives-laden truck targeted an army outpost in northwest Pakistan, killing 23 soldiers. Tehrik-e-Jihad, an apparent offshoot of the Pakistani Taliban, claimed responsibility. The attack occurred in the Daraban region of Dera Ismail Khan, a stronghold for the local Taliban. The outpost was established in a school, and the resulting blasts caused the building's collapse. The Pakistani military reportedly engaged and killed all six attackers. The incident highlights a surge in militant violence in the past year, raising concerns ahead of Pakistan's February elections. Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) seeks to overthrow the government and establish a conservative Islamic system. The TTP, once considered largely defeated, has witnessed a resurgence, with attacks originating, in many cases, from Afghanistan. In the first half of 2023, militant attacks in Pakistan rose by 80%, with the TTP assumed to be involved in most instances. Washington Post
U.S. Sanctions Two Former Afghan Officials for Corruption. The U.S. Treasury sanctioned two former Afghan parliament officials, Mir Rahman Rahmani and Ajmal Rahmani, and 44 related companies for a complex corruption scheme in which they misappropriated millions of dollars from “U.S. Government-funded contracts” meant for Afghan security forces. US officials also allege that the Rahmani’s conspired on several other schemes including collusion to inflate the price of fuel to the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces on U.S.-funded contracts, fraudulently importing and selling tax free fuel, and under-delivering fuel that were contracted to supply. The sanctions block the Rahmani’s U.S. assets and punish any Americans who engage in transactions with the Rahmani’s. Reuters
The Americas
Air Force Takes Action Against 15 People Over Discord Leaks. The U.S. Air Force has taken disciplinary action against 15 members of the Air National Guard in connection to the leak of hundreds of classified documents online by airman Jack Teixeira this spring. The Air Force said “lack of supervision” by superiors and a “culture of complacency” enabled Teixeira to post classified documents on the online chat platform Discord. On Monday, leaders within his unit testified before Congress that they were aware of four instances of “questionable activity” involving Teixeira and his access to classified material but failed to report it to the proper authorities. The fifteen who were disciplined range in rank from staff sergeant to colonel. Punishments ranged from removal from positions to nonjudicial punishment. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall released a statement reinforcing that it is the duty of all airmen to prevent the spread of classified information to those who “would do the United States or our allies and partners harm.” The Air Force maintains that Teixeira acted alone in what was the most significant leak of U.S. intelligence material in years. Washington Post C4ISRNET BBC
Africa
Ceasefire Agreed to in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. All armed forces and non-state armed groups in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have agreed to a 72-hour ceasefire, backed by both the DRC and Rwanda. The ceasefire aims to allow forces to withdraw from Mushaki, which was seized by the M23 rebel group this month, and the RP1030 road, the main supply route in eastern Congo, ahead of Congo’s presidential election. Congo has accused Rwanda of backing M23, which Rwanda denies. The U.S. has urged the DRC and Rwanda to de-escalate tensions, and White House National Security Council spokesperson said the U.S. will use its “intelligence and diplomatic resources” to monitor all parties during the ceasefire. Reuters Associated Press
Sudan’s Army, Rival Forces Dispute Mediator’s Claims of Ceasefire Pact. Sudan’s army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have disputed claims by the IGAD, a body of East African nations committed to securing peace, that the two warring parties agreed to both a truce and a meeting for political talks. On Sunday, IGAD reported that army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF head Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo had consented to an in-person meeting, in addition to a proposal for a ceasefire. However, Sudan’s army-affiliated foreign ministry on Sunday said that it did not confirm the IGAD’s statement, as it did not include all of the information. For example, the ministry said that the meeting between the two leaders was conditional on the withdrawal of RSF soldiers from the capital of Khartoum, as well as a permanent armistice. The RSF likewise said the meeting would only happen on the condition that Burhan did not attend in his role as head of state, a position he has held since 2019. It is not likely that the army would accept such conditions. Reuters
Europe
Donald Tusk Appointed Polish PM, Pledges to Strengthen E.U. Ties. Donald Tusk became prime minister of Poland on Monday. Tusk, a former European Council president, has vowed to thaw relations with the E.U., which had been shaky under the nationalist rule of former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who lost a vote of no confidence earlier in the day. Tusk is set to settle a dispute over Poland’s democratic standards which has led Brussels to freeze billions of euros in funds for Warsaw. Poland's Constitutional Tribunal had previously ruled that the judicial reform the E.U. says is necessary for the release of the funds would be unconstitutional. Reuters Associated Press
The data cutoff for this product was 8:00a.m. E.T.
Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Ken Hughes, Emma Fisk, Katharine Campbell, and Tiffany Krueger contributed to this report.
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