10:00 AM ET, Tuesday, August 29, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
The Americas
FBI Investigating Migrants Who Used ISIS-Linked Smuggler. The FBI is investigating over a dozen Uzbek nationals who sought asylum and crossed the southern border with Mexico after U.S. intelligence officials found that they had traveled with the help of a smuggler with links to ISIS. None of the migrants themselves were initially flagged in any intelligence community databases and were released into the U.S. pending a court date. FBI agents only scrambled to relocate them for investigations after the agency learned the smuggling network that they used to get to the U.S. included at least one individual with ties to ISIS. The ISIS-linked smuggler, who officials say is likely not a member of the terror group and more likely has personal sympathies with the organization, was arrested by Turkish authorities to support the investigation. Officials maintain that there is no indication the migrants are linked to ISIS or engaged in any terrorist plots against the U.S., but it has increased scrutiny of migrants who have used the network of the smuggler. An official said some of the individuals from the initial group have yet to be tracked down and over 15 of them remain under scrutiny as potential criminal threats. The incident points to concerns from some members in the intelligence community that ISIS and other terrorist actors could theoretically turn to the southern border. CNN
Commerce Secretary Says U.S. Wants to Work With China. U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo met with China’s Premier Li Qiang in Beijing on Tuesday. Raimondo told Li that the U.S. wants to work with China on key “areas of global concern,” including climate change, artificial intelligence, and the U.S. fentanyl crisis. Li added that sound economic and trade relations between the U.S. and China will be mutually beneficial and help the world. Separately, Raimondo met with China’s economy chief He Lifeng and told him that while the U.S. “will never compromise in protecting our national security” it “will never seek to decouple or hold China’s economy back.” The Chinese government said He raised concerns over U.S. tariffs, export controls and investment restrictions. Additionally, the first meeting of a new working group on export controls was held at the commerce ministry in Beijing, led by U.S. assistant secretary for export enforcement, Matthew Axelrod. The engagements are part of Raimondo’s trip to China, which aims to find areas for economic cooperation with Beijing amid heightened tensions. Reuters
State Department Reportedly Chooses Veteran Diplomat Lambert as Top China Policy Official. The State Department has selected Mark Lambert to serve as its top China policy official, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter. Lambert, a veteran diplomat, will most likely be named as deputy assistant secretary for China and Taiwan, filling the vacancy left in June following the departure of Rick Waters. Lambert may potentially also take over Waters' position as head of the Office of China Coordination, informally known as the China House, which coordinates the department’s China policies. Reuters
Canada Expected to Deny Temporary Residency to Former Iranian Minister. Canadian Immigration Minister Marc Miller said on Monday that the country will deny former Iranian health minister Hassan Ghazizadeh Hashemi temporary residency in the country. This comes after Hashemi was reportedly seen in Montreal. Miller cited the numerous human rights violations by Tehran as his reason for denial, which he has the right to do under Canada’s Immigration and Refugee Protection Act. Reuters
Western Europe
Germany Arrests Man Suspected of Sending Drone Parts to Russia. German authorities arrested a German-Russian national suspected of exporting military components to Russia. Germany’s prosecutor general said the suspect, named only as Waldemar W, is accused of violating sanctions imposed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by exporting electronic components on 26 occasions to a Russian military hardware company. W, who has been in pre-trial detention since May, allegedly made the transfers between January 2020 and March 2023 to the company, which reportedly makes the Orlan-10 reconnaissance drone. Reuters Deutsche Welle
EU Must Prepare for New Members by 2030- Says Leader of European Council. European Council President Charles Michel said Monday that the European Union (EU) must be prepared to accept new members by 2030. Speaking at a forum in Slovenia, Michel said "I believe we must be ready by 2030 to enlarge . . . This is ambitious, but necessary. It shows that we are serious." He explained that future member states must introduce reforms to combat corruption and organized crime, align their foreign policy with the EU, and secure independent judiciary. Michel added that aspiring members need to settle bilateral disputes to “make sure that past conflicts are not imported into the EU." He said that the bloc must also make changes, asserting that "not reforming on our side before the next enlargement would be a fundamental mistake . . . It only makes sense for new member states to join a Union that's functioning well, that's efficient." The European Commission's October enlargement package will offer further details of progressive integration into the bloc. Ukraine and Moldova were given candidate status last year, and Georgia is still waiting for the same. Other Balkan states, such as Albania, Bosnia, Kosovo Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia, are at varying stages in the process of joining the EU. Reuters Deutsche Welle Financial Times
Central and Eastern Europe
Ukraine’s Defense Minister Hints at Expansion of Ukrainian Arms Manufacturing. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told reporters on Monday that “powerful players” are arriving on Kyiv’s arms market. He said that “several agreements will be signed” in Ukraine’s defense sector and suggested that “good news” will come "by the end of this month or at the beginning of September.” He said that Ukraine has already begun to increase the production of weapons, including 155 mm artillery shells, and added that Ukraine is expected to hold an industrial defense forum with around “50 powerful players” at the end of September or the beginning of October. In his nightly video message, President Volodymyr Zelensky echoed Reznikov’s remarks, saying that Kyiv is "maximizing production capacity” of domestic weapons. He added: “Artillery made in Ukraine. Shells made in Ukraine. Drones, missiles, armored vehicles … Ukraine can do it. Funding is available. Our defense industry will yield better results.” CNN Kyiv Independent
Russian Shelling Kills One in Kupiansk Amid Evacuation Calls. Ukrainian officials report that Russian shelling killed a man and wounded at least one other person in the northeastern Ukrainian town of Kupiansk on Tuesday. Kupiansk, a key rail hub, was seized by Russia at the start of the Ukraine war and then liberated by Kyiv last September. Regional officials have ordered the mandatory evacuation of civilians from the Kupiansk area due to continued Russian attacks. Reuters New York Times
Russia Says it Downed Ukrainian Drone Over Black Sea. Russia’s defense ministry said a Russian military jet destroyed a Ukrainian drone over the Black Sea on Tuesday. The ministry did not provide further details. Reuters
Kremlin Says Putin Will Not Attend Funeral of Wagner Chief Prigozhin. The Kremlin on Tuesday said Russian President Vladimir Putin will not be attending the funeral of Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin. Prigozhin was reportedly killed in a plane crash on August 23. All 10 passengers aboard the plane presumably died, including Wagner commander Dmitry Utkin and Valery Chekalov, who headed Wagner logistics. The crash came two months to the day after the Wagner mutiny against the Russian military leadership. Putin offered condolences to the families of those reportedly killed in the crash. Reuters
South Korea Sending Nearly $400 Million in Ukraine Aid Next Year. South Korea is providing 520 billion won ($394 million) in financial aid for Ukraine next year. The aid package, which marks an eightfold increase from this year, includes 130 billion won for reconstruction, 260 billion for humanitarian aid, and 130 billion won for support through international organizations, according to South Korea’s 2024 budget. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol had said earlier in July that Seoul would send a “large scale of military supplies” to Kyiv this year, without providing more details. Reuters
Experts Find Majority of Foreign Components in Russian Drones From China. The Yermak-McFaul Expert Group on Russian Sanctions found that more than 60% of foreign components in Russian drones originate from China, after analyzing 174 parts from three drone models used by Moscow in the war against Ukraine. The Ukrainian Presidential Office said that the results of the study show that 67% of the components emerge from China, with 17% of those coming through Hong Kong. 5% come from Turkey, and 2% from the United Arab Emirates. The group also found that processors, microcircuits, and transistors from South Korea, Japan, Switzerland, and other nations were present in Russian weapons. Andriy Yermak, Presidential Office head, said that Moscow is “extremely active” in employing drones for huge assaults on “infrastructure, civilian and military facilities in Ukraine.” He added that it is “very disturbing” to discover that crucial parts for the manufacture of weapons “come from other states, in particular Ukraine's allies.” The group reported that lots of drone components are available on open platforms, making it difficult to enforce regulatory control. Kyiv Independent
Russian Forces in Kherson Reportedly Lacking Ammunition. According to multiple well-known Russian military bloggers, Moscow’s troops operating in the Kherson region lack artillery and ammunition support. Roman Saponkov, a mil-blogger with more than 70,000 subscribers, said Friday that Russian forces contacted him about their lack of artillery support. Saponkov said that “the brigade commander and the chief of the reconnaissance battalion are sending our guys in without artillery support, without drones — poor guys are being killed in packs.” The Russian blog Visioner’s Channel said Sunday that Moscow’s 205th brigade faces the same “signal of crisis” and called the lack of ammunition a “well known” problem with Russia’s defense ministry. Another blog, called Republic, added that the 205th brigade in Kherson “was ordered to occupy islands on the Dnipro River” but “the servicemen responded by saying that they lacked ammunition, food, artillery support and reconnaissance.” The Russian Ataman Fund, a foundation that offers financial support for service members, warned that “there will be trouble” if the supply problems in the region are not resolved. CNN
Russia Charges Former U.S. Consulate Worker With Spying. The US is accusing Russia of intimidation and harassment of embassy officials following reports that Russian authorities have charged a former U.S. consulate worker with spying. Russia’s FSB Security Service accused Robert Shonov, a Russian national, of gathering and supplying information to U.S. embassy staff on the Ukraine war starting in September of last year. Shonov, who was arrested in May, is facing a charge of “cooperation on a confidential basis with a foreign state” and faces up to 8 years in prison if found guilty. The U.S. State Department maintains that Shonov worked at the U.S. Consulate General in the eastern Russian city Vladivostok for 25 years “in strict compliance with Russia’s laws and regulations,” adding that his sole duty was to “compile press summaries from publicly-available Russian media sources.” The department added that it is aware Moscow has summoned two American diplomats working at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow for questioning over the case. Al Jazeera
Asia and Oceania
US Performs Missile Defense Drills with Allies, North Korea Promises to Boost Navy. The US, Japan, and South Korea engaged in joint naval missile defense drills in international waters off the Korean peninsula on Tuesday, drawing condemnation from North Korea, which has accused the three allies of producing "the most unstable waters with the danger of a nuclear war." Seoul’s military said the drills, which were held off South Korea's southern Jeju island, trained participating forces on their ability to identify and track targets and share data. The drills come as North Korea’s Kim Jong Un called for “radically” modernizing North Korean naval forces. In a speech on Monday to mark the North’s Navy Day, Kim called the leaders of the US, Japan, and South Korea "gang bosses" and said the navy must be bolstered to maintain “war readiness” and “constant combat alertness” to counter any invasion plots. Kim added that his navy would become “a component of the state nuclear deterrence carrying out the strategic duty,” suggesting that Pyongyang potentially plans on deploying new nuclear-capable missiles for its navy. Reuters Associated Press CNBC Korea Herald
Taiwan Warns of Escalation in Tensions as Chinese Warplanes Cross Median Line. Taiwan’s defense ministry warned of a possible “sharp increase” in military tensions with China on Tuesday following renewed air incursions by Chinese warplanes. The ministry said that early Tuesday, 12 Chinese military aircraft entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, with six J-10 fighter nets and a drone observed crossing the unofficial median line of the Taiwan Strait. The ministry said five Chinese naval vessels also held “combat readiness patrols” in the region. The ministry called on Beijing to stop this “continued military harassment” to maintain regional stability and security. The incursions came as Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an, who is from the main opposition Kuomintang party, visited Shanghai for annual city-to-city talks. He said such engagements are needed, arguing that "the more difficult the environment is, the more the two sides should communicate." Reuters
Pakistan Court Suspends Former Pakistan PM Khan’s Graft Conviction. The Islamabad High Court on Tuesday suspended the conviction and three-year prison sentence of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan over the state gifts case and ordered his release on bail. Khan was convicted of corruption in early August for selling state gifts he received while premier between 2018 and 2022. Khan’s supporters hailed the decision, saying that they believe he get a “complete acquittal” by the Supreme Court. Former Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif slammed the decision and maintained that Khan’s conviction has been “suspended” and not “terminated.” Legal experts say Khan also remains disqualified from electoral politics. Khan faces over 100 cases and could be rearrested in at least nine cases, according to his spokesperson. A special court in Islamabad has ordered that Khan be kept in detention until he appears in court tomorrow for the “cypher case,” which focuses on a secret diplomatic cable that Khan alleges proves the U.S. conspired with his political opponents and the Pakistani military to remove him from office. Al Jazeera New York Times Reuters
Middle East and Northern Africa
French Special Forces Commando Killed in Anti-Terror Operation in Iraq. Sergeant Nicolas Mazier, an elite French air force paratrooper, was killed on Monday during an counterterrorism operation in Iraq, according to the French presidency. An Iraqi security source in the northern city of Kirkuk said a joint operation between Iraqi forces and an elite French commando unit was “ambushed” by Islamic State militants. The source said the attack led to a battle that lasted “more than five hours” which killed Mazier and wounded several French troops and three members of Iraq’s anti-terrorism forces. Mazier is the third French soldier killed in Iraq in August. Around 600 French troops are in the region as part of Operation Chammal to fight Islamic State. Associated Press France 24
Libyan Foreign Minister Flees to Turkey After Meeting With Israeli Counterpart. Libyan Foreign Minister Najla el-Mangoush fled to Turkey following anger at reports of her meeting with her Israeli counterpart Eli Cohen in Rome last week. Israel, which does not have diplomatic relations with Libya, announced the meeting on Sunday, describing it as a first step to broader ties and cooperation, which triggered protests in Tripoli and other areas in Libya. The Libyan foreign ministry maintains the encounter was “informal and unplanned” and that el-Mangoush reiterated Libyan support for Palestinians, but that did not stop the backlash. Libya’s internal security agency confirmed that el-Mangoush went to Turkey over security concerns, though the agency maintained it did not help her in her travels. New York Times Washington Post
Sub Saharan Africa
Sudan Army Leader Visits Egypt. Sudan’s army chief, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, arrived in the Egyptian town of El Alamein on Tuesday to meet Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. The trip marks the first time Burhan has left Sudan since the start of the conflict between Sudan’s army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in April. Egypt has offered to mediate talks between the warring parties, though Burhan recently suggested he is not open to negotiations, pledging a decisive victory over the RSF, who he called “traitors.” Reuters
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Negotiations Resume. Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia on Sunday reportedly resumed negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam that Ethiopia is constructing on the Nile River’s main tributary. In July, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said that they seek to reach an agreement within four months on the functioning of the $4.6 billion dam on the Blue Nile, which joins the White Nile in the Sudanese capital of Khartoum before flowing northward through Egypt. Cairo has described the dam as an existential threat that could impact more than 100 million people and disrupt the nation’s water supply for agriculture, while Addis Ababa argues that the dam is “essential” for electricity needs. Sudan seeks an agreement with Ethiopia to share information on the dam’s operation to safeguard its own power-generating dams on the river and protect against flooding. The Egyptian Irrigation Ministry said the new talks on a legally binding deal on the operation of the dam will take place in Cairo. Associated Press
Cyber and Tech
Pro-Russian NoName Group Impacts Polish Stock Exchange, Banks in DDoS Attacks. The pro-Russian hactivist group NoName launched distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks on Monday that impacted Poland’s Warsaw Stock Exchange, several banks, and the Polish government’s website for public services. NoName posted to their Telegram channel claiming responsibility for the DDoS campaign, which follows on hacks of the Polish railway service last week. The group explained that its “DDoS rocket launchers today are aimed at Polish targets” as an expression of support for Polish citizens “who oppose the authorities of their country drowning in Russophobia. In addition to the Warsaw stock exchange, the group listed as targets major commercial financial institutions, including Bank Pekao, Raiffeisen Bank, Plus Bank, Credit Agricole Bank, and BNP Paribas. NoName also announced a DDoS attack on the Polish government’s verification service, saying that the website that allows a wide range of government services “was slammed.” According to a profile by Radware’s threat analysts, the group recruits participants in its DDoSia bot project from the dark web, and pays them in crypto depending on how many targeted campaigns they join in and how successful the attacks are. Radware also found NoName’s tactics have changed to focus on critical infrastructure, such as financial, government, and aviation sectors. Cybernews
Air Force Tests Potential of Versatile AI-Controlled Prototype Aircraft. The Air Force is testing the capabilities of an experimental aircraft that can fly a distance the width of China, has stealth characteristics, and can be outfitted with long-range missiles, but whose most distinctive feature is that it is controlled by artificial intelligence. The XQ-58A Valkyrie prototype is envisioned as a supplement to Air Force fighters, which could fly with a swarm of “robot wingmen” in combat missions. Military planners reportedly are concerned that conventional Air Force aircraft and weapons systems may not be able to meet the challenge of a full-scale conflict with China as the country continues to fortify its coastlines with anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles. Autonomous aircraft like the Valkyrie could use AI-enhanced sensors to detect threats and be given human oversight approval to launch attacks. While the potential benefits as a supplement to conventional firepower is projected to be a significant factor, concerns also have been raised about just how much autonomy should be granted to an AI-controlled weapons system. New York Times
Washington Post Analyzes use of ChatGPT’s in Political Messaging. A Washington Post analysis has discovered that OpenAI has not enforced the ban it set in place earlier this year on political campaigns using its generative AI chatbot, ChatGPT, to create content targeting specific voting demographics. The potential for unprecedented, tailored disinformation stems from AI-powered chatbots’ power to instantaneously create and disseminate online content. The Post’s analysis demonstrated that, rather than preventing targeted political messages, ChatGPT easily generates such campaigns with simple prompts like “Make a case to convince an urban dweller in their 20’s to vote for Biden.” The response from the chatbot quickly assembled a talking points list about the Biden administration’s policies that conceivably would appeal to a 20’s demographic. An OpenAI product safety representative said in June that such messages violate company guidelines and that it is seeking tools to detect ChatGPT generation of political messages of the type the Post examined. Nevertheless, in August, ChatGPT still can be used to create the supposedly banned content. Congress has not passed any legislation to regulate the use of AI in election campaigns. Meanwhile, the Federal Election Commission is reviewing a petition by the Public Citizen advocacy groups that would prohibit candidates from intentionally misrepresenting opponents in AI-generated advertising. FEC commissioners have questioned whether they have the authority to exercise such control without a congressional mandate. Another worrying characteristic of generative AI tools is that they enable politicians to “target and tailor political messaging at an increasingly granular level,” bringing about a wholesale change in political communications with voters. It was OpenAI CEO Sam Altman himself who told a congressional hearing that such fine-tuned use of generative AI is one of his greatest concerns, describing the outcome as “one-on-one interactive disinformation.” Washington Post
Chinese AI Academic Elected as President of International AI Association. Zhou Zhihua, dean of the AI school at Nanjing University, has been elected as the board of trustees president of the International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence (IJCAI), described as one of the world’s top AI academic associations. Zhou will be the first professor at a mainland Chinese university to lead the IJCAI since it was founded more than 50 years ago. Previously, Zhou was elected as the IJCAI program chair and served as a trustee of the association between 2018 and 2023. The IJCAI was founded in 1969 and focuses on scientific and educational activities in the AI sector. An annual conference held since 2016 attracts AI researchers and professionals from around the world. At the 2023 conference, Zhou said discussions focused on developing the capabilities of AI models as well as overcoming potential drawbacks. Zhou said that the IJCAI discussed how to use AI technologies to help human beings have “have balanced development” and avoid issues such as “vulnerable groups becoming more vulnerable.” In 2018, Zhou headed a team to create China’s first AI school in Nanjing University and established an undergraduate AI program. In March, Zhou was appointed a member of the CPPCC National Committee, China’s top political advisory body. South China Morning Post
Infrastructure Group Recommends Cybersecurity, Other Upgrades to Water Sector. A presidential advisory council on infrastructure recommends the creation of a Department of Water, or cabinet-level agency, to address cybersecurity threats that could target the nation’s water treatment plants. A group of 30 public and private sector leaders who make up the National Infrastructure Advisory Council (NIAC) issued a report stating that the risks to water supply integrity requires “a coordinated effort among owners, operators, and local, Federal, and state government.” Noting that at least 10 executive branch agencies have water-related oversight responsibilities, the NIAC report said “this fragmentation of responsibility at the federal level makes it difficult to ascertain the country’s water needs and strategically prepare the nation for a water-secure future.” Consequently, a departmental structure with appropriate authorities and resources should be created, along with a National Water Strategy to coordinate government-wide policy and actions. NIAC proposes that the department develop an R&D program to examine cybersecurity requirements, among other topics. CyberScoop notes that many water industry issues have negative effects on the cybersecurity of the sector, including that an expected overhaul of long-ignored infrastructure maintenance means that cybersecurity upgrades could well face funding hurdles. The report notes that new limits on forever chemicals and threats such as cybersecurity compromises will require a more specialized workforce” than is presently in place. CyberScoop
Spanish Police Warn ‘LockBit Locker’ Deploying Phishing, Social Engineering Attacks. Spain’s national police have issued a warning of a continuing “LockBit Locker” ransomware campaign aimed at architectural firms through phishing emails. While the architectural targets have been identified as a specific sector, the police do not rule out that the campaign may extend to other organizations. The police report that the attack is being carried out with “a very high level of sophistication” that leaves targets unaware of the threat until their devices have been encrypted. Police say the phishing emails masquerade as a photographic firm solicitation sent from a nonexistent domain. Once trust is built through a series of emails, the threat actors provide attached documents that when opened execute malware which encrypts accessed data. The threat actors claim to be affiliated with the notorious LockBit group, but BleepingComputer assesses the campaign is conducted by different threat actors using the leaked LockBit 3.0 ransomware builder. Given the sophistication of the campaign and the social engineering tactics, it is likely the threat actors are using different lures for companies in other sectors. BleepingComputer
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