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10:00 AM ET, Tuesday, August 22, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

The Americas

US Commerce Secretary Raimondo to Travel to China Next Week.  The U.S. Commerce Department said Tuesday that Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo will visit China next week to meet with top Chinese government officials and American business executives.  She will travel to both Beijing and Shanghai from August 27th to 30th.  The department said Raimondo "looks forward to constructive discussions,” which will reportedly center on possible collaborations, the two nations’ commercial relationship, and difficulties faced by American businesses.  Beijing said last week that it welcomes Raimondo’s trip.  Recently, she said that she wished to raise “serious concerns about the way they [Chinese authorities] are targeting U.S. tech companies, about the way they don't respect intellectual property” with Beijing, while also trying to find “lanes of commerce.”  Raimondo’s trip will come despite recent reports of China-backed hackers breaching her email and the emails of other top U.S. officials.  Reuters CNBC

Mexico’s López Obrador Condemns Reuters Report on Narco Remittances.  Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador on Monday denounced a Reuters report released Friday which alleged that drug cartels sometimes send profits from the U.S. back to Mexico by disguising them as remittances.  The story cited interviews with two dozen Mexican residents who claimed that the Sinaloa Cartel paid them to receive remittances sent by the organization’s agents in the U.S. and then turn the money over to syndicate members in Mexico. Four American and Mexican security officials told Reuters that organized crime groups can hide their illicit gains in small transfers sent as remittances to normal people in Mexico with no links to the cartels.  The report referred to records from eight American federal court cases and interviews with dozens of sources, such as law enforcement agents, industry insiders, and analysts, documenting the practice.  During a routine news conference, López Obrador attacked Reuters, saying "they are some deceivers, liars.” A spokesperson from Reuters responded by maintaining, "we stand by our reporting." According to Mexico’s central bank, remittances to Mexico reached a record $58.5 billion last year. López Obrador made several comments in the briefing alleging that the Reuters report relied on only "one or two interviews," when in reality the report was based on conversations with more than 60 people.  Reuters

Kenyan Delegation in Haiti to Discuss Multinational Task Force.  Kenyan officials are meeting with the Haitian national police to discuss a potential multinational security force to address gang violence in the Caribbean nation.  Talks between the two sides in Port-au-Prince are set to continue through Tuesday.  Haiti has requested international support to counter powerful gangs which now control large parts of the country.  After the Kenyan assessment, the UN Security Council will vote on a plan to send a security force to Haiti.  UN Secretary General Antonio Gutters has called for the “robust use of force” to restore order and reestablish access to basic services in Haiti.  Human rights groups have called for any international force to include safeguards to prevent abuses.  Reuters 

U.S. Approves Potential $12 Billion Sale of Apache Attack Helicopters to Poland.  The U.S. State Department has approved the potential sale of $12 billion worth of AH-64E Apache helicopters and related equipment to Poland.  The Pentagon said Warsaw has requested 96 of the Apache attack helicopters, as well as 1,844 Hellfire missiles, 508 Stinger missiles, and other related equipment.  The Pentagon added that the possible sale would strengthen Poland’s ability to deter adversaries and participate in NATO operations.  Reuters US DoD DSCA 

Western Europe

British Foreign Minister to Visit China.  According to three anonymous sources, British Foreign Minister James Cleverly is set to visit China at the end of August, after weeks of delay due to the replacement of former Foreign Minister Qin Gang with his predecessor Wang Yi.  Qin has not been seen publicly since the end of June. The British foreign office said it plans on announcing Cleverly’s trip "in the usual way,” while the Chinese foreign ministry has not yet responded to requests for comment. One source said that Cleverly will arrive in China on August 29 and that he will stay for a few days and attempt to steady the tense relationship between London and Beijing.  Sino-British relations have soured in recent years due to China’s policies towards Hong Kong and Uyghur Muslims.  Reuters

Central and Eastern Europe

Zelensky says F-16s Make Him 'Confident' that Ukraine Will Win the War.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday said that promises of deliveries of American-built F-16 fighter jets have made him confident that Kyiv could put an end to Russia’s war.  In a speech outside of the Danish parliament, Zelensky said that he is “confident that Russia will lose this war." Russian ambassador Vladimir Barbin warned that giving Ukraine jets would only intensify the conflict, telling reporters that "the fact that Denmark has now decided to donate 19 F-16 aircraft to Ukraine leads to an escalation."  Zelensky has called the supply of jets a "breakthrough agreement.”  However, the jets are unlikely to reach Ukraine by the end of the year due to the time it will take to train Ukrainian pilots to fly them.  Reuters

Russia Says it Destroyed Drones Near Moscow, Ukrainian Military Boats in Black Sea.  The Russian Ministry of Defense said Russian air defenses intercepted two drones detected over the Moscow region, as well two other drones over the western Bryansk border region.  The ministry said the drones over Moscow were destroyed while the Bryansk drones were downed with electronic jamming.  The ministry did not say where specifically the drones were detected, though a Reuters journalist in the town of Krasnogorsk in the Moscow region reported seeing minor damage to a high-rise residential building.  The ministry alleged that Ukraine launched the drones.  Separately, the ministry added that it destroyed a Ukrainian military “reconnaissance” boat in the Black Sea.  The ministry did not specify where the boat was destroyed, saying only that a Sukhoi Su-30SM jet destroyed it near “Russian gas production facilities” in the region.  The ministry also said Russian forces destroyed a military speedboat near Snake Island in the Black Sea.  Al Jazeera BBC Deutsche Welle Reuters

British Intelligence Suggests Some Drone Attacks Against Russia Launched Within Russian Territory.  The British Ministry of Defense released a report suggesting that some drone attacks against Russian military targets may have been launched “from inside Russian territory.”  The report focuses on a recent drone strike on a Russian airfield in Novgorod Oblast in which “a Tu-22M3 BACKFIRE medium bomber of Russia's Long Range Aviation (LRA) was highly likely destroyed.”  Russia’s defense ministry said that a Ukrainian copter-style drone was used in the attack.  The British intelligence report said that if this is true, it supports the prospect that some drone attacks are being launched within Russia since such a drone would not have the range to be able to target the airfield from beyond Russia’s borders.  Ukrainian media has supported this idea, claiming that Ukrainian military intelligence coordinated with Ukrainian saboteurs to launch the attack.  Deutsche Welle Reuters 

Biden Administration Urges U.S. Citizens to Leave Belarus Amid Tensions.  The Biden administration warned American citizens in Belarus to leave the country immediately and cautioned against travel there on Monday.  The U.S. State Department categorized the country as a Level 4 risk, warning that “Belarusian authorities’ continued facilitation of Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine, the buildup of Russian military forces in Belarus, the arbitrary enforcement of local laws, the potential of civil unrest, the risk of detention, and the Embassy’s limited ability to assist U.S. citizens residing in or traveling to Belarus.”  Neighboring countries such as Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia have recently bolstered security forces near their borders with Belarus due to the presence of Russia’s Wagner Group in the country.  The mercenaries are reportedly training Belarusian soldiers.  Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko supports Russian President Vladimir Putin and his war in Ukraine and has been sanctioned by the U.S. for political repression and human rights abuses.  The Hill Washington Post

Wagner Group Chief Prigozhin Posts First Video Address Since Mutiny, Suggests He is in Africa.  Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin on Monday published his first video message since his attempted coup against Russian military leadership in June, suggesting that he is in Africa. In the video, which was posted on Telegram, Prigozhin is seen standing in a desert wearing combat gear with a rifle in his hands.  He says in the video that Wagner “makes Russia even greater on all continents, and Africa - more free."  Prigozhin adds that the group brings "justice and happiness - for the African people” and that “we're making life a nightmare for ISIS and al Qaeda and other bandits.”  He also said that he is recruiting people to join Wagner and promised that the group “will fulfill the tasks that were set.”  Neither the BBC nor Reuters could verify the location or date of the video.  The Wagner Group is active in Mali, Libya, and Central African Republic.  Western powers have expressed concern over the group’s presence in Africa. The UN has accused the group of committing human rights abuses and war crimes on the continent.  Reuters BBC Al Jazeera

Asia and Oceania

China’s Economic Woes Suggest Continued U.S. Primacy.  Experts say China’s current economic downturn has reduced the likelihood that it will overtake the U.S. economy in the coming years and could give Washington the opportunity to bolster economic ties with countries indebted to China.  Witnesses at a U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) hearing said the “still widely underappreciated” economic slump that China is facing — which was caused by its expanded control over its private sector and impacts from the Covíd-19 pandemic — is so serious that “Beijing is no longer an economic pacing threat or likely to overtake the United States in any significant measure of economic power” in the next 20 years.  The experts said China will have to focus on addressing internal economic challenges for several years and risks “losing economic momentum,” challenging the idea that China’s economic rise over the U.S. was an imminent inevitability.  The testimonies follow reports of falling exports, output and foreign direct investment in China.  For the U.S., experts said China’s economic issues could impact its ability to finance infrastructure projects in the Global South, meaning that Washington could step in to provide meaningful debt relief and external lending, especially with private-sector lenders.  The experts also warned that the U.S. should not pursue policies to further cripple China’s economy or fully decouple from China, arguing that such actions would not be in line with the EU, Japan and South Korea and could antagonize Beijing.  One analyst asserted that an “angry and isolated China is a greater danger to U.S. interests than one that is interconnected.”  South China Morning Post

North Korea Warns Camp David Agreements Could Bring About 'Thermonuclear War.'  North Korea on Tuesday cautioned that Friday’s Camp David agreements, which aimed to strengthen economic and military cooperation between the US, Japan, and South Korea, could lead to a "thermonuclear war.” In a commentary released by the state news agency KCNA, Pyongyang said "if the agreements fabricated at the Camp David Resort are additionally put into practice in the war drill ... the possibility of outbreak of a thermonuclear war on the Korean peninsula will become more realistic.” North Korea said the summit at Camp David sought to create a "nuclear war provocation," and asserted that the situation necessitates that its military "take the initiative, offensive and overwhelming action for a war.”  North Korea also condemned the annual Ulchi Freedom Shield military drills between the U.S. and South Korea, which started on Monday.  Reuters

North Korea to Launch Satellite Over Yellow Sea. Japan and South Korea released a statement criticizing North Korea’s decision to launch a satellite over the Yellow Sea.  North Korea reportedly informed the Japanese Coast Guard that it will conduct the launch sometime between August 24 to August 31, and that the satellite will fly over the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and the Pacific.  Tokyo said the outlined trajectory of the satellite will keep it outside of Japan’s exclusive economic zone. North Korea previously attempted to launch a satellite back in May, but it failed and fell into the sea. Japan is reportedly preparing its PAC-3 missile defense systems for the launch.  Reuters Nikkei Asia 

North Korean State Airline Resumes Flights to China. Beijing will allow the North Korean state airline, Air Koryo, to resume flights to China after halting them amid the COVID-19 pandemic, according to an announcement from the Chinese foreign ministry.  The foreign ministry did not provide an answer on when exactly flights would resume.  Train services between the two countries have also been on the rise, according to a report from South Korean news agency Yonhap. Reuters Wall Street Journal 

Middle East and Northern Africa

Saudi Border Guards Have Killed Hundreds of Ethiopian Migrants.  A report from Human Rights Watch alleges that Saudi Arabian border guards have killed hundreds of Ethiopian migrants, including women and children, along its border with Yemen.  The report alleges that Saudi guards used explosive weapons and shot firearms at close range in the killings.  The report comes from testimonies of 38 Ethiopians who attempted to cross the border between March 2022 and June 2023.  An unnamed Saudi official said in an email response on Monday that the report is "unfounded and not based on reliable sources."  Riyadh has previously denied allegations by the UN about the “systematic” killing of migrants on the kingdom's borders.  Ethiopian migrants have long been documented traveling from the Horn of Africa, across the Gulf of Aden, through Yemen and into Saudi Arabia.  Reuters

Syria Says Israeli Missile Strikes Injure Solider Near Damascus. Syrian state media agency SANA reported that Israeli missiles landed near Damascus and injured a Syrian soldier on Monday.  According to the report, the missiles were launched from the Golan Heights area near Syria.  There was no reported material damage in the area that was struck. Syria air defense systems also reportedly intercepted some of the missiles.  Israel has conducted attacks against what it says are Iran-linked targets in Syria.  Al Jazeera

Sub Saharan Africa

BRICS Leaders Meet in South Africa.  Top officials from BRICS countries — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — are meeting in Johannesburg, South Africa for a major summit of the bloc.  The meeting is set to particularly focus on the prospect of expanding BRICS, with nearly two dozen countries having formally asked to join.  The summit will also cover the increased use of local currencies, though officials say there will be no talks on a BRICS currency.  Russian President Vladimir Putin will be the only BRICS leader not physically attending due to the International Criminal Court arrest warrant against him.  Reuters

Cyber and Tech

China, U.S. Commit Billions To AI-Enabled Autonomous Targeting, Weapons Systems.  China and the U.S. are separately pursuing research to integrate AI into military applications, with a particular emphasis on enhancing autonomous capabilities that will allow weapons systems to arrive on target without human intervention.  A recent test by China’s National University of Defense Technology involved deploying a drone swarm that coordinated in-flight movements to overcome jamming signals.  The swarm proceeded to locate and destroy a target with loitering munitions without human guidance.  For its part, the U.S. recently conducted joint exercises with Australia and Britain that featured AI-enhanced drones to track ground armor and vehicles.  The drones received real-time updates from ground operators that “retrained” the drone AI targeting programs while in flight.  Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology recently published study findings that one-third of all known U.S. and Chinese contracts during an eight-month period in 2020 focused on intelligent and autonomous vehicles.  Margarita Konaev, the center’s deputy director for analysis, said “the U.S. military in particular is learning a great deal about the value of these technologies on the battlefield from the conflict in Ukraine.”  Konaev’s research team discovered that the second-largest share of all procurement contracts in both countries were focused on AI tools for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR).  The use of AI to analyze satellite images for potential targets is a notable segment of these contracts.  Konaev noted that investments in emerging technologies is “a long, complicated road from innovation to adoption and use at scale.”  Wall Street Journal

Chinese Telecommunications Agency Proposes Intrusive Identity Plan for Metaverse.  China’s state-owned telecommunications company, China Mobile, has proposed a “Digital Identity System” for users of metaverses, or online virtual worlds.  According to observers, the proposed metaverse framework has “an eerie resemblance” to China’s “social credit” systems, which judge the trustworthiness of individuals and organizations based on financial, social, and legal criteria.  The China Mobile proposal centers on the use of digital ID’s that would employ “natural” and “social” characteristics such as occupations, “identifiable signs,” and other factors.  The recommended system would “permanently” store data that could be shared with law enforcement in the interests of “order and safety of the virtual world.”  The digital ID would allow police to identify and arrest online users who circulate “rumors and makes chaos in the metaverse.”  The proposals are included in ongoing discussions between tech experts and officials at the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), the UN standards-setting body for telecommunications.  Western officials are wary of proposals from Chinese state-owned and private organizations for global rules governing emerging technologies, such as the 2020 draft regulations for Internet protocols put forward by Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications equipment provider. Experts who reviewed the Chinese metaverse proposal at Politico’s request described it as undermining principles of privacy and freedom that define the Internet experienced by most people in the West.   Politico

Homeland Security Adds, Deletes AI Applications in ‘Use Case’ Inventory Update.  The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has updated its list of AI use cases, the required inventory of unclassified, non-sensitive current and planned ways AI is employed by a federal agency.  Among the new AI applications is the RelativityOne system used to increase the efficiency of document review.  Also newly revealed is a facial recognition system used by Immigration and Customs Enforcement.  FedScoop and other technology researchers have been examining what is described as “patchwork compliance” with required use case disclosures, which by executive order should be updated annually.  Alongside the new AI use cases, DHS has removed references to others, such as a Transportation Security Administration (TSA) system called PageRank, described as an algorithm to address Covid-19 risks at airports.  Also removed is a subsection for the Coast Guard AI program called the “Silicon Valley Innovation Program (SVIP) Language Translator.”  DHS has not confirmed whether removed projects are no longer active and has not disclosed why the TSA and Coast Guard entries were removed from the inventory.  FedScoop

Low Enrollment Hampers UK Cyber Ransomware Alert Service for Businesses.  British intelligence services are regularly informing potential targets of impending ransomware attacks in an effort to forestall them.  Early Warning, a system operated by the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC), a component of GCHQ, provides alerts to organizations that have signed up for the program.  The system has resulted in alerts averaging one every 72 hours over the last three months to targeted organizations. However, sources said, more organizations need to sign up for the alert service.  The detection of precursor malware that threat actors use to launch attacks is the “easiest part of the process,” but only 2 percent of organizations receive Early Warning notifications of threats.  Signups to Early Warning are offered to any UK organization with a static IP address or domain name.  Enrollment allows the system to automatically associate targets’ networks with a dedicated contact mechanism.  NCSC publishes guidance on differentiating contacts by its officials from attempts to trick people into revealing sensitive information.   The spokesperson could not specify how many ransomware attacks have been foiled by Early Warning because the agency is not always informed of actions taken by alerted organizations.  The source added that in the last 90 days, “30 or so of the notifications the NCSC has sent out were to do with the kinds of malware that we often see shortly before ransomware” attacks.  Nearly 8,000 organizations signed up for Early Warning as of 2022, a fraction of those eligible from Britain’s 5.5 million private sector businesses, as well as the more than 160,000 registered charities, and over 32,000 schools.  TheRecord

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