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10:00 AM ET, Wednesday, October 5, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

THE TOP STORIES:

Russia Withdraws Most of its Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol.  Russia has in recent weeks moved most of its Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol, its main base in Crimea, to other ports in Crimea and Russia that provide better protection from Ukrainian missiles and drone strikes, Western officials and naval experts say. Ukrainian strikes have inflicted heavy damage on Russian vessels and fleet headquarters recently. The Kremlin said today all questions about Russian naval operations should be directed to the Defense Ministry. Naval experts said the Russian ships still will be able to fire cruise missiles, but their withdrawal from Sevastopol is seen as a boost for Ukraine’s counteroffensive. U.K. Minister of State for the Armed Forces James Heappey said this week that the withdrawal amounts to “the functional defeat” of Russia’s Black Sea fleet. In pressing its offensive in the Black Sea, Kyiv seeks to end Russia’s naval blockade of its ports and to disrupt the resupply of the Russian army in southern Ukraine. A Ukrainian military spokeswoman said yesterday that Ukraine had pushed the front line in the Black Sea back at least 100 miles from Ukraine’s shoreline. Wall Street Journal Atlantic Council Reuters CNN

Raimondo Calls Huawei Chip Development ‘Incredibly Disturbing.’  Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told a Senate committee that reports of a breakthrough on computer chips by China’s Huawei Technologies are “incredibly disturbing” and said that her department needs “different tools” and “additional resources” to better enforce U.S. export controls. In her second appearance before US lawmakers since her recent visit to China, she cited currently stalled legislation proposed by Sen. Maria Cantwell that would expand the Commerce Department’s authority over technology transactions found to pose risks to national security.  The new chip, reportedly an advanced 7 nanometer version, is found in Huawei’s newest smartphone, a development that has set of debate in Washington on the effectiveness of US export controls to rein in advanced technologies developed by China, which pose a potential national security risk to the U.S.  Bloomberg

U.S. Building Intelligence Network With Asian Countries To Counter China.   The U.S. is working more closely on intelligence matters with countries across Asia, in part to counter China’s increasingly sophisticated spy apparatus and Chinese cyberattacks. U.S. officials say the Biden Administration has developed separate but overlapping intelligence-sharing arrangements with several countries, including Australia, India, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea and Vietnam. A White House spokesperson said the international cooperation includes sharing information but otherwise would not comment on the so-called intelligence liaison relationships. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence also declined comment. The new arrangements will complement the informal “Five Eyes” intelligence network consisting of the US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Daniel Byman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington said the Five Eyes’ “dominance is pretty established,” but that as the focus shifts to China, “then countries like Japan and South Korea become more important.”  Bloomberg

Philippines Reports Successful Resupply Mission at Disputed Shoal.  The Philippines said it successfully resupplied troops stationed on a grounded ship at the Second Thomas Shoal in the disputed Spratly Islands, despite attempts by a “significant number” of Chinese coast guard and maritime militia vessels to “harass and interfere” with the mission.  The Philippine National Security Council said such missions are a “legitimate exercise” of the Philippine government’s functions.  China’s Coast Guard condemned the resupply mission, saying that two Philippine supply ships and two coast guard vessels illegally entered its waters.  It added that Chinese coast guard vessels “warned, followed and effectively regulated” the Philippine ships.  Associated Press Reuters South China Morning Post 

U.S. Failure to Approve New Funding for Pacific Island States Could Open Gap for China.  The temporary spending bill passed by Congress last week did not include planned approvals of funding for Micronesia, the Marshall Islands and Palau, which analysts and experts say could give China an opportunity amid increasing competition in the region.  The Biden administration wanted new 20-year funding programs for the three countries — which have ties with the U.S. through Compacts of Free Association (COFAs), which make Washington responsible for their defense and provide economic assistance in exchange for U.S. military access to waters in the region — to be approved by September 30.  The spending bill maintains services to COFA states, but did not approve the new funding programs, leaving holes in other parts of the Pacific island countries’ budgets.  Experts warned of increased “political warfare” from Beijing framing the development as a show of the U.S. being an unreliable partner.  Reuters 

Japan To Move Up Purchase Of 400 Tomahawk Missiles From U.S.  Japan will begin importing 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles from the U.S. in 2025, a year earlier than previously planned because of increased threats from North Korea and China, Kyodo News reported. Japanese Defense Minister Minoru Kihara met with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin yesterday in the U.S., where he said the two “shared the recognition” that Japan would buy the missiles in 2025.  The $1.3 billion purchase requires Congressional approval. In a joint statement following their meeting, Austin and Kihara said the two sides agreed on strengthening the capabilities of their alliance, “including effective operation of counter strike capabilities.”   Bloomberg Nikkei Asia 

US Public Support for Arming Ukraine Declining, Reuters/Ipsos Poll Shows.  A Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed Wednesday shows Americans’ support for continued military aid to Ukraine is declining. The survey showed 41% of respondents agreed with the statement that Washington “should provide weapons to Ukraine,” 35% disagreed, and the rest were unsure. The Reuters/Ipsos poll taken in May showed 46% in favor of the aid and 29% opposed. The more recent poll shows 52% of Democrats still back continued support for Ukraine’s military, but only 35% of Republicans support it.  Reuters

Expert Perspective: ‘Pulling the Plug’ on Ukraine Aid is a ‘Recipe for Disaster’.  Cipher Brief Expert General Jack Keane (Ret.) said on Wednesday that a U.S. failure to continue providing aid to the Ukrainian military would be a “recipe for disaster” extending far beyond Ukraine. Keane said that providing military assistance is not just about helping Ukraine but about defeating Russia, which he said has designs beyond Ukraine. Keane likened the situation to the 1930s when Adolf Hitler “was on the march,” and he added that if Russia isn’t stopped in Ukraine, “it’s likely our troops are going to be involved” in a wider war.  Keane said Russian President Vladimir Putin “was serious about Ukraine from the start” and “has said the same thing about the Eastern European states,” which he wants returned to the Russian Federation as “part of his design of the Russian empire.”  Keane added that Putin “is joined at the hip” to Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is watching everything unfold, and that a U.S. failure to provide enough aid to Ukraine to help it defeat Russia likely would “incentivize him to do something about Taiwan.”  Fox News

THE UKRAINE UPDATE:

Ukraine Reports Advances, Repels Russian Attacks.  The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said it repelled Russian attacks on several fronts and conducted offensive operations elsewhere.  It reported that in the Zaporizhzia region, Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks near Novodarivka, Verbove, and Robotyne and conducted offensive operations in the Melitopol direction.  In the Kherson region, Ukrainian troops continued counter-battery combat against Russian forces, destroying storage sites and striking the Russian rear.  Ukrainian forces also repelled Russian attacks north of Zybyne in the Kupiansk sector of the Kharkiv region, as well as in the Lyman sector east of Makiivka in the Luhansk region and northwest of Dibrova in the Donetsk region.  The General Staff also said that in the Donetsk region, Russian attacks failed near Hryhorivka, Klishchiivka and Andriivka around Bakhmut, as well as on the Shakhtarsk front, near Zolota Nyva and Rivnopil.  CNN Yahoo News

Russia Launches Airstrikes, Shelling Attacks Across Ukraine.  Ukrainian military officials report that Russia launched over 60 air strikes against military and civilian targets across Ukraine in the last 24 hours.  The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine added that Russia shelled over 140 settlements in the Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporzhzhia and Kherson regions.  Russian shelling in Kherson city killed two civilians, according to regional officials.  Oleksandr Prokudin, the head of Kherson region military administration, said Russia shelled the Kherson region 78 times in the last 24 hours, launching 25 artillery shells at Kherson city alone.  CNN CNN Reuters 

Russian Drone Strike Hits Kirovohrad Region Infrastructure.  Ukrainian officials report that a Russian drone strike hit an infrastructure facility in the Kirovohrad region on Thursday.  They said the attack caused a fire but reported no casualties.  Ukraine’s Air Force said it destroyed 24 of 29 drones launched by Russia overnight, downing 10 over the Mykolaiv region, nine over Kirovohrad, and five over Odesa.  CNN Reuters 

Russia Claims Ukrainian Drone Strike Hit Kursk Region.  A Russian official claimed Thursday that Ukrainian drones struck infrastructure in the southwest region of Kursk in Russia, causing power outages.  Kursk Governor Roman Starovoit reported on Telegram that the drones damaged infrastructure “in the Sudzhansky, Korenevsky and Glushkovsky districts tonight.” He noted that emergency services had already begun to work on restoring power in Kursk, which borders Ukraine's northeast Sumy region. Kursk has reported Ukrainian drone assaults on its territory nearly every day in recent months as the war continues to spill over into Russia.  CNN

Russia's Shoigu, Gerasimov Meet Troops Fighting in Ukraine.  Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, reportedly met troops fighting in Ukraine on Thursday.  The Russian defense ministry did not specify where the meeting took place, saying only that Shoigu inspected servicemen and volunteers in reserve units in Russia’s southern military district.  Reuters

Zelensky Notes ‘Difficult Election Period’ in U.S.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Thursday that the U.S. is going through a “difficult election period” and that there are many “different” and competing voices.  His comments appeared to acknowledge concerns about the future of U.S. aid for Ukraine.  Zelensky reiterated that when he visited Washington, he received “100%” backing from President Joe Biden and bipartisan support.   When asked about if he is worried that the ousting of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy will stall the approval of new funding for Ukraine, he said “it’s too late to worry” and that it must be worked through.  Zelensky made his remarks in Granada, Spain, where he is making an unannounced appearance at the European Political Community Summit, a forum aimed at fostering cooperation between 40 countries following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  Attendees are expected to assure Zelensky of their long-term support for Kyiv.  Zelensky said that Ukraine will work with partners at the gathering to bolster European regional security, highlighting Ukraine’s role in the Black Sea regarding food security and freedom of navigation.  He added that Ukraine’s priority is getting support to prepare for the winter and strengthen air defenses.  CNN Reuters New York Times 

Ukraine Names Three New Deputy Defense Ministers.  Ukraine appointed three new defense ministers on Thursday as part of its efforts to increase transparency and accountability in its armed forces.  According to Ukraine’s defense ministry, Dmytro Klimenkov, commercial director at the state gas transit company, will be deputy minister overseeing procurement and will work on digitizing and streamlining the process.  General Ivan Gavrylyuk will oversee military and technical politics and will work on boosting domestic military production and coordinating logistics with allies.  Stanislav Haider, the former head of digital reform at the National Anti-corruption Agency, will work on transparency and accountability efforts and will create data management systems.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky fired his defense minister and started a major defense leadership shake up following allegations of corruption at the defense ministry.  Reuters 

Germany to Provide Additional Air Defenses To Help Protect Ukrainian Grain Shipments.  Germany reportedly plans to provide additional air defenses for Ukraine to help protect grain shipments along its corridor towards Romania.  Sources said Berlin will supply one extra IRIS-T air defense system and more than a dozen Gephard anti-aircraft guns to provide protection for the shipments. The weapons should arrive by the end of this year, and more IRIS-T units will be provided once they have been built.  Bloomberg

Germany Decides Against Sending Taurus Missiles to Ukraine.  German newspaper BILD reports that Germany has decided not to provide Ukraine with Taurus cruise missiles for the “foreseeable future.”  Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated in September that giving Ukraine the long-range missiles were still under consideration.  While Germany has long called for the long-range missiles to aid the country’s self-defense and allow it to hit Russian command posts and ammunition stocks far behind frontlines, Germany has been hesitant to send the weapons to Kyiv over concerns that they could potentially be used to strike Russian territory.  The German defense ministry had yet to comment on this subject at the time of this writing.  CNN 

Ukrainian Authorities Arrest Sumy Mayor on Corruption Charges.  Ukraine's High Anti-Corruption Court (HACC) announced on Wednesday that Oleksandr Lysenko, the mayor of the regional capital of Sumy in northeastern Ukraine, has been arrested on charges of corruption.  He will remain in custody with an $82,000 bail. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) on Monday detained both Lysenko and the head of Sumy’s council’s infrastructure department when they accepted the last portion of a $58,000 bribe from a local garbage disposal company that they threatened to obstruct if it refused to pay.  The bribe was paid in tranches from November 2022 to October 2023, with the last payment of around $38,000 being paid on Monday.  The officials could face up to eight years in prison, as well as the potential confiscation of property.  Lysenko reportedly said he was innocent when appearing in court, claiming that he "did not see this money, I did not receive it, and I was not near it.”  Kyiv Independent

Russia Conducts Annual Civil Defense Drills.  The U.K. Defense Ministry reports that Russia has recently begun performing civil defense drills simulating a massive, international armed conflict.  Russia has conducted these exercises, which coincide with Russian Civil Defense Day on October 4th, annually since 2012.  The ministry said that this year’s drills are unlikely to have been significantly changed or expanded.  For decades, the Kremlin has concentrated on domestic readiness for a large-scale conflict.  The ministry says that despite Russia’s continued war in Ukraine, it is not likely that Moscow has dramatically shifted its posture of national preparedness.  U.K. Defense Ministry X

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN:

U.S. Court Ruling Prohibits CISA from Flagging Suspected Misinformation to Platforms.  A U.S. Court of Appeals decision this week pointed to probable 1^st amendment violations by CISA in its interactions with social media outlets seeking to shield elections from online hoaxes.  The court ruled that CISA’s work with the platforms moved them in the direction of “more restrictive policies on election-related speech.”  The decision revised a court ruling issued last month, which did not find sufficient evidence that CISA’s flagging of posts for the platforms was coercive.  The latest ruling prevents actions by CISA leadership that “coerce or significantly encourage” platforms to remove or reduce the spread of posts.  The judges added that CISA not only flagged social media posts from state and local election officials to the tech companies but offered judgments on the validity of the posts.  The court said, “the platforms’ censorship decisions were made under policies that CISA has pressured them into adopting and based on CISA’s determination of the veracity of the flagged information.”  The court did not grant a request to apply limitations on the State Department or to reinstate the part of the July injunction that prevented government officials from participating in academic initiatives to address disinformation. The appeals court decision opens the way for the Supreme Court to decide if it will take the case.  Washington Post

DoD Innovation Unit Invites Proposals for Mass-Produced, Versatile Aerial Drones.  The Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) has invited the aerospace sector to submit proposals for mass-produced, medium range “unmanned aerial delivery vehicles” in the wake of the recent launch of the Replicator drone initiative.  A DIU solution brief explained that current DoD replenishment rates for UAV’s cannot meet surge demands or reach “affordable mass.”  Seeking solutions to these circumstances, the DIU is inviting proposals to accelerate UAV systems development “by enabling the integration, testing, and qualification of different subsystems, capabilities, and materials.”  DIU specifications for the systems include flight range of 500 nautical miles, support integration of sensors and modular payloads, carry a kinetic payload, and conduct an initial flight test within seven months after award.  According to the DIU proposal solicitation, “multiple vehicle types may be selected for prototyping and multiple variants may be developed following a successful initial flight test.”  Responses to the invitation are due by October 10.  BreakingDefense

EU Parliament Advances Rules To Restrict Platform Removal of Media Content.  The European Parliament has approved draft rules that will require online platforms like Google and Meta to advise media outlets if their reporting will be removed for violating platform content rules.  The draft rules require platforms to carry news content for 24 hours before taking it down.  The provision, Article 17 of the Media Freedom Act, was proposed last year by the European Commission to ensure media plurality and safeguard editorial independence.  After 24 hours, the platform can delete, restrict or refer the case to national regulators.  The CCIA Europe technology lobbying group, which represents Google, Meta, and X, issued a statement, saying "the media exemption will empower rogue actors, creating new loopholes to spread fake news rather than fixing anything."  There are growing concerns in Europe about political interference in media outlets as crucial elections approach in Poland this month and the European Parliament next year.  Parliament’s approval of the draft rules establish its position for negotiations with EU member states on the final text of the media law, which are due to start later this month.  The draft law also includes safeguards against surveillance and spyware use against journalists, with exceptions for national security issues.  Reuters Bloomberg

Apple, Australian Software Firm Issue Advisories on Separate Product Vulnerabilities.  Apple and the Australian software giant, Atlassian, have issued warnings concerning zero-day vulnerabilities that are being exploited by threat actors.  Apple identified the vulnerability that impacts iPhone XS and several versions of the iPad Pro and Air models.  Apple warned of the possibility that an attacker may be able to elevate privileges through the vulnerability and released an emergency fix for the flaw.  Apple’s advisory added a note about another bug traced to the libvpx video codec library, which affects media processing tools embedded within browsers.  CISA warned Monday that threat actors are exploiting it, which has been confirmed by several browser makers, including Google’s Chrome browser, Mozilla’s Firefox, and Microsoft’s Edge.  Australia’s Atlassian software manufacturer also advised Wednesday about an issue affecting its Confluence Data Center and Server product, which it rated as a critical vulnerability.  An Atlassian spokesperson told Recorded Future News the company had been contacted by customers who reported possible exploitation of a vulnerability “to create unauthorized Confluence administrator accounts and access Confluence instances.”  The company pointed out that is cloud sites are not affected by the flaw, and it has informed customers of “details of affected versions, mitigation steps required and threat detection actions.”  The Record

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD:

Turkish Air Strikes Kill 8 in Kurdish-Held Zone in Syria.  Turkish airstrikes killed at least eight people in Kurdish-held areas in northeastern Syria on Thursday.  Security sources said two people were killed in a car near a military facility and another six were killed in a strike on a military post near the town of Amuda.  Turkey said on Wednesday that it would target Kurdish militant facilities in Syria and Iraq after concluding that attackers who detonated bombs in Ankara last week came from Syria.  The U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, which is dominated by the Kurdish YPG, denied that the bombers passed through territory it controls, adding that the Ankara attack was being used as a pretext to target SDF-held areas.  The militant Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) claimed responsibility for the Ankara bombing.  Turkey views YPG as a terrorist group affiliated with PKK.  Reuters 

France to Begin Withdrawal of Troops from Niger This Week.  France will start withdrawing its 1,500 troops deployed in Niger this week.  The French Armed Forces said the troops will return to France and that the withdrawal should be completed by the end of the year.  Following the Niger coup, French President Emmanuel Macron ended military cooperation with the junta.  The withdrawal is set to severely diminish France’s influence in the Sahel and Western counterterrorism efforts in the region.  It could also offer Russia an opportunity to fill the gap left by French forces.  France 24 Reuters

North Korea Pauses Nuclear Reactor, Possibly to Obtain Bomb Fuel.  South Korea’s Dong Ilbo newspaper reported on Thursday that North Korea has halted operations at its 5-megawatt nuclear reactor at the Yongbyon nuclear complex, potentially to extract plutonium that could potentially be used for weapons by reprocessing spent fuel rods.  The report cited an intelligence assessment by American and South Korean officials that concluded that operations at the reactor have been suspended since the end of September and “could be a sign of reprocessing work being done to obtain weapons-grade plutonium," as the Yongbyon nuclear complex is Pyongyang’s main source of plutonium.  The report also cited a top government official saying that "the possibility of a nuclear test … is not ruled out."  Jeon Ha-gyu, South Korea defense ministry spokesman, did not comment on the report but said authorities are continuing to monitor the situation.  Experts note that the Yongbyon complex’s capacity for producing plutonium and the stock of fissile material itself remains limited, but some raised concerns that Russia could be clandestinely sending plutonium to North Korea as part of the two countries’ growing military ties.  Reuters The Guardian

Israel Sells Spy Satellites to Azerbaijan’s Space Agency.  Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) sold a pair of multi-spectral electro-optical spy satellites to Azerbaijan’s space agency, Azercosmos, as part of their business partnership through the Azersky-2 program.  Though neither Azercosmos nor IAI revealed the value of the contract or the model of the satellite, both the agency and Israeli firm have previously said the deal is worth around $120 million, and Defense News learned that the satellite model is the OptSat-500.  The satellites will be launched into orbit in 2026 and 2028, reportedly have a lifespan of 7 years, and can take photos with a resolution of 50cm.  They cost about a third of the OptSat-3000 satellite, which was given to the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF).  The new satellites will replace the Airbus satellite Baku launched nearly a decade ago.  Azercosmos chairman Samaddin Asadov said that the project “will undoubtedly contribute to the development of space cooperation between our countries.”  Azerbaijan had regularly purchased weapons from both IAI and IDF for use in the conflict with neighboring Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region.  Defense News C4ISRNET

Voice Cloning Software Spreading Disinformation on Sudan War.  A campaign using an audio manipulation tool that uses artificial intelligence to clone voices has begun spreading disinformation and confusion in Sudan.  An anonymous account named The Voice of Sudan has been spreading “leaked recordings” made with the tool impersonating the country’s former leader Omar al-Bashir, who hasn’t been seen in public for a year and is believed to be very ill.  The fake recordings of his voice have received hundreds of thousands of views.  Experts say the account’s motivation for conducting the campaign is unclear, but they theorize that it may be attempting to make it appear as if Bashir is involved in the current conflict between Sudan’s military and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.  When contacted by the BBC, The Voice of Sudan rejected the idea that it is manipulating audiences and said, while purportedly posing as Bashir, "I want to communicate my voice and explain the reality that my country is going through in my style." Analysts say online campaigns like this are significant as they demonstrate how new technology can swiftly and cheaply distribute fabricated content through social media with the potential to ignite unrest and impact elections.  BBC 

Turkey Seeks Success in the Production of Unmanned Ground Vehicles for Ukraine. The Turkish TB-2 drones used by Ukraine have had remarkable success in strikes against Russian troops.  Vehicle manufacturers across Turkey are now attempting to recreate this success with unmanned tanks.

A presidential aide said the new technology provides “an almost endless market” given Turkey’s leadership in the industry and as militaries around the world expand.  Local companies noted that they hope the new unmanned ground vehicles will be combat-proven by the Turkish military, which will increase the value of the systems on the foreign market in the same way Turkish drones increased in value and demand when successfully used in Ukraine.  DefenseNews 

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