10:00 AM ET, Thursday, October 26, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
THE TOP STORIES
Biden Executive Order on AI Policy, Federal Requirements Possible Monday. Axios and other media outlets are reporting that the Biden administration on Monday will issue a key executive order (EO) on artificial intelligence, taking a first step toward regulating the leading-edge technology. The order will emphasize development of AI as a national security tool. According to sources, the EO will require assessments of advanced AI models before they can be used by Federal agencies. Some departments, including Defense, Energy, and the intelligence community, will be required to evaluate the use of AI in their respective areas, with an emphasis on cyber defenses. It is possible, sources indicated, that the EO could include a classified annex dealing with national security uses. White House invitations have been issued for a “Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence” event to be hosted by President Biden on Monday. “Red team” evaluations of large language models purchased for government use reportedly will be led by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Earlier this year, NIST released a framework for managing AI risks, and it is a key participant in collaborations with other government agencies on AI. The EO also contains provisions for immigration rules that would lower the barriers for engineers and other high-skilled workers at a time of increasing worldwide demand for technical talent. In addition to the immigration, federal departments would need to assess the current size of the AI workforce. Axios Washington Post Reuters Wall Street Journal
Taiwan Reports Chinese Planes Enter Air Defense Zone, Monitoring Chinese Aircraft Carrier, The Taiwanese Defense Ministry said it detected 15 Chinese Air Force aircraft entering the island’s air defense zone early on Thursday. The aircraft — including H-6 bombers, J-16 fighter jets and drones — were accompanying Chinese warships conducting drills and “combat readiness patrols.” Taiwan’s military also said it is monitoring a Chinese naval group led by the aircraft carrier Shandong that crossed through the Bashi Channel south of Taiwan and entered the western Pacific. The Shandong previously participated in Chinese military drills in the area in previous months. Reuters Reuters
China Launches Youngest-Ever Crew to Space Station. China launched its Shenzhou 17 spacecraft from the Jijquan Satellite Launch Center in the Gobi Desert on Thursday, the country’s 12th manned mission into space. The ship is expected to dock at the Tiangong space station orbiting Earth later today, and its three-member crew will replace the Shenzhou 16 crew that has manned the station for five months. The new crew is China’s youngest ever, with an average age of 38. China’s Manned Space Agency (CMSA) said the crew will conduct experiments in medicine, technology and other areas and will install, maintain and repair equipment. CMSA Deputy Director told reporters that research is underway to expand the station. The agency also announced that it plans to launch a new telescope, said to be 300 times more powerful than the Hubble, but no time frame was announced. Associated Press South China Morning Post
ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR
Israel Conducts Limited Incursion into Gaza. Israeli forces mounted a “targeted raid” against several militant targets in northern Gaza and then withdrew on Thursday. Officials said the raid killed militants and destroyed their infrastructure and several anti-tank missile launch positions. Israeli military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said the limited incursion was “part of our preparations for the next stages of the war.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled that this could come in the form of several ground invasions into Gaza, though he did not elaborate. Israel previously said it would delay its full ground invasion of Gaza to allow the U.S. more time to deploy additional air defense systems to protect U.S. forces in the region. Israel also continued air strikes on Gaza, reportedly launching around 250 strikes over the last 24 hours against militant tunnels, rocket launchers and other infrastructure. Gaza’s Health Ministry says Israeli air strikes have killed over 7,000 people in Gaza since the Hamas attacks. Around 350,000 Palestinians remain in northern Gaza despite orders to evacuate south. Al Jazeera Associated Press Bloomberg Financial Times Reuters Wall Street Journal
Israeli Soldiers Train in ‘Little Gaza.’ The Israeli military is using a replica of a generic Palestinian village in the Negev Desert where soldiers train to conduct urban warfare in narrow streets and underground tunnels. The Urban Training Center, dubbed “Little Gaza,” was built in 2006. It contains 600 structures simulating such buildings as schools, mosques and marketplaces. U.S. officials and others familiar with Israel’s plans say Israel has agreed to a U.S. request to delay a ground invasion so the Pentagon an place air defenses in the region to protect U.S. forces that might be targeted by militant groups, and Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gen. Herzi Halevi told reporters Tuesday that there are tactical and strategic reasons for delaying the ground offensive. He said the extra time can be used to gather more intelligence and remove more obstacles on the ground. Despite the delay, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed that a ground assault is coming. Wall Street Journal
Hamas Fighters Trained in Iran Ahead of Israel Attacks. Hundreds of Palestinian Islamist militant group fighters reportedly received specialized combat training in Iran before the Israel attacks. Sources familiar with intelligence about the attacks said around 500 Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad militants participated in training drills in September, which were led by officers of the Quds Forces of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Sources added that senior Palestinian officials and the head of Quds Force, Iranian Brigadier General Esmail Qaani, attended the exercises. U.S. officials say Iran regularly trains militants in the region but had no indications of mass training immediately before the Hamas attacks or evidence that Iran directed specific training for the assault. The Israeli military’s chief spokesman, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, said on Wednesday that Iran supporting Hamas with funds, training, weapons, intelligence and technological training. The U.S. has said that while it not seen evidence that Tehran gave a direct order for Hamas to attack Israel, Iran is ultimately responsible due to its support for the group. Wall Street Journal
Biden Condemns Actions of ‘Extremist’ Israeli Settlers in the West Bank. Palestinian authorities report that multiple civilians have been killed by Israeli settlers in Palestinian-controlled territory in the West Bank. President Joe Biden condemned these killings, saying that “extremist settlers” are only “pouring gasoline” on the fiery conflict in the Middle East, adding that the perpetrators must “stop” and “have to be held accountable.” The West Bank Protection Consortium, an organization of nongovernmental corporations and nations, reports that hundreds of Palestinians have been displaced due to settler violence since the Hamas attacks, in addition to the estimated 1,100 displaced in violence in 2022. Associated Press Al Jazeera
Israel-Hamas Conflict Threatens Fragile Economies of Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon. The Israel-Hamas conflict could adversely affect economic stability in Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon — three countries’ whose economies are already troubled. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a report in September warning that the three countries could lose their “sociopolitical stability.” European Council President Charles Michel met with IMF officials last week, telling them more needs to be done to support the Egyptian government, highlighting Egypt as under pressure due to the possible influx of refugees from both Gaza and war-torn Sudan. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi thus far has refused to take in Palestinians. Meanwhile, the IMF says Jordan is experiencing a slowing of economic growth and less foreign investment and its unemployment is in double digits. And in Lebanon, which may become involved in the war if Hezbollah opens a new front against Israel, the economy shrank by more than half from 2019 to 2021, according to the World Bank. Associated Press
U.S. and Russian Resolutions for Israel-Gaza Conflict Fail at U.N. Security Council. Rival U.N. security Council resolutions from the U.S. and Russia on the Israel-Hamas conflict both failed on Wednesday. The U.S. resolution called for “humanitarian pauses” in the fighting to allow aid to enter Gaza. The Russian resolution called for a full humanitarian ceasefire. Ten countries voted in favor of the U.S. proposal, Russia and China cast vetoes. The United Arab Emirates also voted against the U.S. resolution. The Russian proposal received only four votes in favor, including from the U.A.E. and China, thus failing to reach the required nine votes in favor. Experts say the U.S. would have likely vetoed the proposal if it received enough support. Malta and Jordan say they intend to propose new resolutions on the matter. Malta said it will align with the 10 non-permanent members of the Security Council to pass its proposal. Al Jazeera Al Jazeera Associated Press UN News
Turkey Reiterates Criticism of Israel. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated his criticism of Israeli attacks on Gaza, saying they have long gone beyond self-defense and turned into open “oppression, brutality, a massacre and barbarism” that is spilling the “blood of Muslims.” He added that Western countries are failing to observe international law by not stopping the attacks and that the international community’s silence on the issue is a “shame for humanity.” He also reiterated that a permanent solution to the conflict can only be achieved with the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. Al Jazeera
China Providing $2 Million in Humanitarian Aid to Gaza. China’s International Development Cooperation Agency said on Thursday that Beijing will provide 15 million yuan ($2.05 million) in humanitarian aid, including food and medicine, to Gaza. Reuters
Putin Warns Israel-Hamas Conflict Could Spread Beyond Middle East. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday warned that the Israel-Hamas conflict could spread far beyond the Middle East and criticized Israel’s decision to conduct air strikes on Gaza in retaliation for the Hamas attacks on October 7. During a Kremlin meeting with Russian religious leaders, Putin said innocent women, children, and old people in Gaza are being punished for other people’s crimes. However, he also expressed condolences to the families of Israelis and citizens of other countries killed or wounded by the Hamas attacks. Putin said Russia continues to advocate for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Reuters
Israeli Envoy Praises Taiwan, Raises Alarm Over Chinese Response to Hamas Attacks. Israel’s envoy to Taiwan Maya Yaron said on Wednesday that Taipei has been a “good friend” to Israel and that Beijing’s response to the Hamas attack on October 7 has been “disturbing.” Taiwan quickly condemned the Hamas attack, while China said Israel’s response in Gaza went “beyond the scope of self-defense.” Beijing also has not mentioned Hamas in any of its comments on the conflict. Reuters
Japan Urges Israel to Suspend Assault on Gaza. Japan on Wednesday called on Israel to suspend its assault on Gaza to allow humanitarian assistance to enter the territory. The Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun reported Japan is making final arrangements for a trip by Foreign Minister Yoko Kamiwaka to Israel and Jordan on November 2-5. Reuters
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
Russian Shelling Targets Ukraine’s Sumy Region. Russian shelling hit seven communities in the Sumy region of Ukraine on Wednesday. The Sumy military administration reported at least 20 attacks and 146 explosions over the past day and that Russian forces used rocket-launcher systems, mortars and drones to target the communities of Bilopillia, Krasnopillia, Seredyna-Buda, Shalyhyne, Znob-Novhorodske, Velyka Pysarivka, and Esman. Velyka Pysarivka bore the brunt of the assault, with 54 explosions reported in the area. No information about damage to civilian or military infrastructure was provided. Communities close to Ukraine's northeastern border with Russia suffer almost daily shelling. Kyiv Independent
Russia Claims Air Defense Downed 2 ATACMS Missiles for First Time. Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed that its air defense units intercepted two long-range Army Tactical Missiles Systems (ATACMS) on Wednesday. Russian state-backed media claimed this was the first time Russia's military has managed to down the U.S.-built, long-range missiles. The ministry did not provide information about the location of the interception in its daily war update, and the claim has not yet been independently confirmed. On October 17th, the Ukrainian military reportedly began using the long-requested American-made weapons, starting with an attack on Russian military airfields in the Berdiansk and Luhansk regions. Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov later said that the ATACMS "exceeded expectations." Kyiv Independent
Ukrainian Pilots Begin F-16 Training in Arizona. Ukrainian pilots have started training at an American air base in Arizona to fly and operate F-16 fighter jets, according to a Wednesday report from the Air & Space Forces Magazine, which cited a spokesperson for the U.S. Air Force. The magazine said that a small group of Ukrainian pilots began learning "F-16 fundamentals" with the Arizona Air National Guard's 162nd Wing earlier this week, and the spokesperson reported that the curriculum will likely last several months and “align with the foundational knowledge and skills of each pilot.” Politico reported on October 13th that the Ukrainians would begin training with the help of simulators before moving on to flying the real jets, though their training sessions will be accelerated so they can return to Ukraine as soon as possible. Kyiv Independent Air and Space Forces Magazine
Ukraine Temporarily Suspends Black Sea Grain Corridor Over Russian Mines, Warplanes. Ukraine is temporarily suspending shipping through the Black Sea grain export corridor it established over concerns about Russian sea mines and attacks from Russian warplanes. The Kyiv-based Barva Invest Consultancy, which specializes in Ukraine’s agricultural sector, said the Ukrainian military called for the suspension following increased Russian Air Force activity in the area. British marine security company Ambrey likewise noted increased Russian Air Force operations in the area, including reports that Russian planes dropped acoustic and/or magnetic sea mines into the corridor. Ambrey added that Ukraine is likely working to locate and destroy the mines. Ukraine launched the “humanitarian corridor,” which runs close to the coastlines of Romania and Bulgaria in the western Black Sea, to revive its grain exports after Russia withdrew from the Black Sea grain deal. Ukrainian officials and shipping data shows that over 40 ships have used the corridor, delivering over 1.5 million metric tons of cargo — including around 700,000 tons of grain — from Ukrainian ports since August. Reuters
Slovakia’s New PM Fico Reportedly Against Further Ukraine Military Aid. Slovak media reports that Slovakia’s newly appointed Prime Minister Robert Fico will not support further military aid for Ukraine or additional sanctions against Russia at his first European Union summit in Brussels on Thursday. Fido’s election campaign pledged to halt Slovakian military aid to Ukraine, make Slovak foreign policy independent, and bolster borders against illegal immigrants. Fico reportedly told a parliamentary committee ahead of his trip to Brussels that he will not back further military support for Kyiv since “we all see there is no military solution.” Regarding Russia sanctions, he said he wanted to more deeply assess how new measures will impact Slovakia. Fico has previously supported humanitarian and reconstruction aid for Ukraine and called for peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow, similar to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s stances. Reuters
U.S., South Korea, Japan, Condemn North Korea for Arms Transfers to Russia. The US, Japan, and South Korea released a joint statement on Thursday denouncing North Korea’s reported delivery of arms to Russia. Moscow and Pyongyang have denied the transfer of military equipment and weapons to Russia for use in its invasion of Ukraine, but reports from Washington and researchers indicate “several” such deliveries. The joint statement, issued by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin, and Japanese Foreign Minister Kamikawa Yoko, asserted that the arms supply “will significantly increase the human toll of Russia’s war of aggression" in Ukraine. The statement added that the situation is being monitored and that weapons transfers breach several U.N. Security Council resolutions that the Kremlin voted for. Reuters Kyiv Independent
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
Tuesday Senate AI Forum Focused on Funding Needs for AI Research. Tuesday’s Senate forum on AI hosted by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer concentrated on additional government funding for AI research related to data, modeling, and education. Participants in the gathering included venture capitalists, academics, executives from smaller AI firms, and representatives of civil groups. The gathering proposed a minimum $32 billion investment for Federal initiatives like the National AI Research Resource. Sen. Schumer said after the meeting that a consensus was reached among participants for expanded investment, including “some very conservative people.” In opening the meeting, Steve Case, AOL co-founder and Revolution CEO, said Silicon Valley should not dominate the AI landscape, and called for “a path to level the playing field, and create more opportunity, for more people, in more places." A source told Axios that discussions included data ownership, with skepticism about regulation involving licensing. MIT AI researcher Max Tegmark told Axios after the meeting that participants were reluctant to discuss artificial general intelligence (AGI), adding "nobody wanted to discuss it when I brought it up... one other participant explicitly called me out by name and said we shouldn't talk about that. But we need to talk about that." Axios
Former CIA Officer Warns LinkedIn Platform Used as Recruiting Ground by Russia, China. A former senior CIA officer and current cybersecurity consultant, Peter Warmka, has raised an alarm about the LinkedIn social media platform, describing it as a “digital venue of choice” for China and Russia, among others, who use the service to lure employees into becoming corporate spies. Warmka in fact used LinkedIn to post his warning, noting that in his cybersecurity presentations he explains “how the LinkedIn platform is leveraged by criminals and intelligence services to target and manipulate people into committing espionage, facilitating data breaches within the organizations they work for.” Based on his investigations, Warmka estimates that approximately one in ten LinkedIn accounts are fake. “Many times,” Warmka wrote, “a fake profile will claim to have gone to prestigious universities or hold impressive titles in large US corporations,” claims that are not validated by the platform. Describing LinkedIn as a “treasure trove of targeting data” for foreign intelligence services, Warmka pointed out that these agencies “are looking to build a long-term relationship with their targets.” Cybernews contacted LinkedIn for comment, but it simply repeated an August statement following similar revelations of the platform use by intelligence services: “Creating a fake account is a clear violation of our terms of service. Our Threat Prevention & Defense team actively seeks out signs of state-sponsored activity and removes fake accounts using information we uncover and intelligence from a variety of sources.” Cybernews
EU Negotiators Make Progress with ‘High-Risk’ Provisions of Draft AI Act. EU negotiators agreed late Tuesday to most parts of Article 6 of the draft AI Act. Article 6 details the types of AI systems with a high-risk designation with tight regulatory oversight. Debate has centered on whether exemptions should be granted for some models in the high-risk category, such as those that conduct “purely accessory” tasks. EU Parliament members Dragos Tudorache and Brando Benifei, who are co-rapporteurs of the EU AI Act, expressed confidence in comments to Reuters on Wednesday that an agreement can be reached at a fifth trilogue scheduled for early December. Benifei noted that the discussions "made significant progress," adding “if the council will show a constructive approach, we could approve (at trilogue level) by year-end." After two years of negotiations, the European Parliament approved the bill in May, setting the stage for the draft AI rules to be agreed through meetings between the parliament and EU member states. Reuters
Cisco Tracks Kazakhstan-Based Hackers Targeting Central Asian Governments. Kazakhstan-based cyberespionage actors are targeting other Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) members while disguising their origins to make it appear cyber intrusions are coming from Azerbaijan. Asheer Malhotra, a Cisco Talos threat researcher, said the tactics of the YoroTrooper group are not very advanced, but it has “enjoyed a substantial amount of success compromising targets in CIS countries over the past two years” through aggressive actions against targeted organizations. Cisco researchers have tracked YoroTrooper attacks against institutions and officials in Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. The operations use VPN services to make it look like their hacks come from Azerbaijan. According to Talos, the hackers compromised several government websites and email accounts between May 2023 and August 2023. Most of the intrusions open with phishing emails and deploy custom-made malware that allows the group to steal data and credentials. The Record
Deepfakes Fueling Propaganda, Undermining Trust in Ukraine War. Researchers from the University College Cork in Ireland have published a study assessing that deepfake footage constructed by AI has become a veritable weapon, eroding away trust, and promoting conspiracy theories about the war in Ukraine through social media. John Twomey, the lead researcher of the study, said that deepfake misinformation and propaganda is trying “to influence a war," and that the videos can manipulate audiences into believing lies and fabricated events. The study highlighted that the technology undermines viewers’ faith in authentic online content and fuels “unhealthy skepticism.” Kyiv Independent
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
Europe
Armenia’s Pashinyan Says No Advantage to Russian Military Presence. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, speaking to the Wall Street Journal in an interview published on Wednesday, said that Armenia sees no advantage to the continued presence of Russian military bases in the country after Moscow failed to intervene in Azerbaijan’s seizure of the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Pashinyan said that the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh “brought us to a decision that we need to diversify our relationships in the security sphere.” Pashinyan’s latest comments come after he made a veiled criticism of Russia in a speech on October 17th, saying that Yerevan’s allies have failed to fulfill their security obligations and have also tried to "subvert Armenia's democracy and sovereignty." Russia, which has an airbase and army garrisons in two locations in Armenia, has long positioned itself as a protector of Yerevan. Armenia, however, has begun to look towards the West for security relationships, sparking anger in Moscow. An anonymous Russian official told Russia’s state-backed agency TASS that the Armenian government is attempting “to turn Armenia into Ukraine No. 3... and Pashinyan is taking leaps and bounds along the path of Volodymyr Zelensky." Wall Street Journal Kyiv Independent Reuters
Middle East
Turkish Drone Strikes in Northern Iraq Kill 10 PKK Members. Turkish drone strikes in northern Iraq killed ten Kurdistan Workers’ Party (P.K.K.) members on Wednesday, according to Iraqi Kurdistan’s counter terrorism service. Turkey, which has dozens of military outposts in northern Iraq, has stepped up drone attacks against P.K.K. in the area in recent weeks. Turkey, the U.S. and the E.U. deep the P.K.K. a terrorist group. Reuters
The Americas
Illegal Border Crossings by Venezuelans Into U.S. Decline as Deportations Start. Preliminary U.S. Customs and Border Protection data obtained by The Washington Post indicates that illegal border crossings by Venezuelans into the U.S. have decreased by more than 50 percent since the Biden administration announced on October 5 that it would begin deportation flights to Venezuela. The data shows that the number of Venezuelans encountered by U.S. agents along the southern border has declined from more than 2,000 per day to an average of about 850. U.S. officials said crossings have slowed since the first deportation flight landed in Venezuela on October 18. Before the deportation announcement, Venezuelan migrants had surpassed Mexican migrants to make up the largest share of illegal entries into the U.S. Biden administration officials defend the deportation decision despite a recent State Department report listing 34 major human rights issues in Venezuela, including arbitrary killings, disappearances, torture and degrading punishment by security forces. The administration has coupled the deportation flights with expanded opportunities for Venezuelans to enter by applying through U.S. sponsors or by using a mobile app to seek an appointment at a border crossing. Washington Post
Maine Mass Shooting Kills at Least 16. Mass shootings at a restaurant and bowling alley in Lewiston, Maine killed at least 16 people on Wednesday night. A local councilor said that as many as 22 people may have been killed. A massive manhunt is underway for the suspected gunman. Reuters CNN BBC Associated Press
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