10:00 AM ET, Thursday, October 19, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
THE TOP STORIES
Biden Reportedly Considering $60 Billion in Ukraine Aid, $10 Billion in Israel Aid. The Biden administration is considering sending a supplemental spending request to Congress that would include $60 billion in aid for Ukraine and $10 billion for Israel. Sources say the request could be sent to Congress as soon as Friday. Earlier this week, sources had said President Joe Biden, who has returned to Washington after a trip to Israel, was considering a request of about $100 billion that would include aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan as well as money to increase security at the U.S.-Mexico border, but several sources said that Biden has not decided on final figures. Reuters Kyiv Independent
Philippine Military Forming Cyber Command. The Philippine military is forming a cyber command to counter almost daily cyber attacks. General Romeo Brawner, chief of the Philippine armed forces, said the military seeks to expand its current “Cyber Group,” which he said is a “small unit” tasked with ensuring the general network of the Philippine military is “safe and secure.” He added that the military will relax recruitment requirements to attract “cyber warriors,” noting that they do not need to be “muscle strong.” Brawner said the Philippine military and several government agencies have experienced cyber attacks almost every day, highlighting that some attacks were likely “foreign” and that none have been successful. He did not suggest where he believed the attacks were coming from, but the creation of the cyber command comes amid heightened tensions with China over disputed territory in the South China Sea. Brawner also noted that cyber defense training was part of joint exercises with the U.S. this year. Meanwhile, he added that the Philippine military will stop allowing telecommunications companies to build cell towers at military camps. Some bases have infrastructure hosted by firms like China Telecom. Brawner also said he hopes to get radar equipment from Japan to boost Philippine surveillance capabilities as part of a military modernization drive. Reuters Rappler
China’s Top General Meets Serbian Defense Chief, Possibly Signaling Resumption of Military Diplomacy. China’s most senior military officer, Gen. Zhang Youxia, met with Serbian Defense Minister Milos Vucevi in Beijing on Tuesday. China’s defense ministry reported that Zhang said China “places great importance” on the military relationship between China and Serbia. The meeting is a possible signal that China will resume military diplomacy. Zhang is the first Chinese senior military officer to host a foreign guest since Defense Minister Li Shangfu last did so in late August, before disappearing from public view without explanation. Zhang was the only Chinese military official to meet with foreign representatives during the two-day Belt and Road Forum this week. China’s National People’s Congress Standing Committee is set to begin its bi-monthly meeting tomorrow, and that could shed light on whether Li is to be replaced. The meeting comes days before the start of the Xiangshan Forum, China’s flagship regional security meeting. The U.S. has said it accepted an invitation to send representatives to the forum. Some observers believe the forum could signal a warming of China-U.S. military communications. South China Morning Post
ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR
President Joe Biden has left Israel after expressing support to the Israeli government and announcing a deal for 20 trucks of humanitarian aid to enter Gaza through the Rafah crossing from Egypt. U.S. officials said the aid could start flowing Friday at the earliest. Israeli authorities said 1,400 people in Israel were killed during the Hamas attacks. The Gaza health ministry says 3,785 people have been killed from Israeli air strikes on Gaza. Al Jazeera Associated Press Reuters
Former IDF Commander Says U.S. Expects Israel to Destroy Hamas. Major General Gadi Shamni, a former commander of the IDF’s Gaza Division and former military attache in the U.S., said in a television interview following President Joe Biden’s visit to Israel that the U.S. “is expecting us to destroy Hamas.” Shamni added that even if the U.S. did not approve, Israel must continue the war until Hamas is “utterly beaten” and Gaza is demilitarized. He predicted the mission would last between six and eight months. He also said Israel must push Hezbollah back from its positions along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. Times of Israel
Three Palestinians Reported Killed By Israeli Forces in West Bank. The official Palestinian news agency WAFA reported that Israeli forces killed three Palestinians in separate incidents in the occupied West Bank today. WAFA said Israeli forces stormed the village of Burdus, killing one man and wounding another. WAFA added that a 14-year-old boy was shot and killed in a refugee camp near Bethlehem and a 16-year-old was shot and killed in the town of Tulkarm. The Israeli army said it arrested 80 people in the occupied West Bank, accusing 63 of being members of Hamas. Al Jazeera Reuters
IDF Strikes Back Following Missile Attack on Kibbutz in Northern Israel. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) says it has fired artillery at missile launch sites in Lebanon after two anti-tank guided missiles were fired at Kibbutz Manara in northern Israel. The IDF said there were no injuries in the missile attack. The attack apparently was launched by Hezbollah, which has fired dozens of missiles and rockets into northern Israel since the Hamas attack from Gaza began on October 7. The U.S. has urged against an expansion of the Israel-Hamas conflict to include Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which has said it is stronger and is ready to fight. Israel has said it does not seek a wider conflict with the militant group, but maintains it is ready to defend itself as needed. Times of Israel
German Defense Minister Visits Peacekeepers in Lebanon. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius traveled to Lebanon on Thursday to visit German soldiers serving in a U.N. peacekeeping force there. Berlin has deployed approximately 140 soldiers off the Lebanese coast and at the headquarters of the UNIFIL mission in southern Lebanon, which has operated there since 1978 and expanded in 2006. Pistorius’s visit comes amid heightened concern of an expansion of the Israel-Hamas conflict to include Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Reuters
Britain’s Sunak Visits Israel. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak arrived in Israel on Thursday. He is the latest Western leader to visit Israel to show support following the Hamas attacks. He met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Isaac Herzog and offered solidarity, emphasized the need to avoid an escalation in the Israel-Hamas conflict, and called for humanitarian access to the Gaza Strip. Netanyahu told Sunak that the Hamas attacks were aimed at disrupting Israel’s efforts to achieve regional piece and underscored that the current conflict is between “an axis of evil run by Iran and supported by Hezbollah, Hamas and others” and those seeking progress and peace, including Israel, moderate Arab countries and others from the “free world.” Sunak is set to visit other regional capitals. His spokesperson said he will first leave for Saudi Arabia today to meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Sunak’s trip coincides with a visit to the region by British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, who is visiting Egypt, Turkey and Qatar over the next three days. Cleverly traveled to Israel last week. Al Jazeera Bloomberg BBC Politico Times of Israel Reuters
Senior U.S. Official Resigns Over ‘Lethal Assistance’ to Israel. Josh Paul, Director of Congressional and Public Affairs at the U.S. State Department Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, resigned on Tuesday, citing what he called “shortsighted decisions” by the Biden administration, especially “rushing more arms” to Israel in its war with Hamas. Paul said Israel has a right to defend itself, but that the level of U.S. “lethal assistance” effectively gives Israel the green light to do what it wants in Gaza regardless of the civilian death toll. Al Jazeera Politico Washington Post
Evidence Shows Hamas Likely Used Some North Korean Weapons in Attack on Israel. Evidence is mounting that Hamas used North Korean weapons in its October 7 assault on Israel despite Pyongyang’s denial that it supplied such arms. South Korean officials, two experts on North Korean weapons, and an Associated Press analysis of arms captured by Israel indicate Hamas used North Korean F-7 rocket-propelled grenade launchers, which typically are used against armored vehicles. Weapons expert N.R. Jenzen-Jones, director of the consultancy Armament Research Services, said that the F-7 has been documented in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Gaza, and he noted that North Korea “has long supported” Palestinian militant groups. Associated Press
Pro-Palestine Protestors in D.C. Rush House Office Building. On Wednesday afternoon, thousands of protestors gathered on Capitol Hill, calling for a ceasefire in the Hamas-Israel war. Some reports estimate as many as 10,000 protestors gathered on the lawn of the Capitol before a few hundred broke through barriers and made their way into the Cannon House office building. Capitol police report at least 300 arrests after hours spent clearing the protestors from the Cannon Rotunda. Three of the protesters were charged with assault of a police officer. This comes after Biden’s announcement of $100 million in aid to the citizens of Gaza alongside “unprecedented support” for Israel’s war effort. CBS News The Hill Roll Call
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
Russia Launches New Airstrikes on Ukraine. The Ukrainian Military said on Thursday that Russian forces carried out airstrikes overnight in eastern, southern, and northern Ukraine. Russian forces reportedly used 17 different weapons in the attacks, including ballistic and cruise missiles and attack drones. The strikes targeted industrial, infrastructure, civilian, and military objects. Ukraine’s air force said Ukrainian air defenses intercepted three drones and one cruise missile. There were no immediate reports of casualties. Reuters
Crimean Bridge Repairs Reportedly Completed, The U.K. Ministry of Defense reported that on October 14, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin said that damage from Ukraine’s July strike on a Crimean bridge had been repaired ahead of schedule. Although fully operational, the use of the bridge remains restricted due to procedures following an earlier Ukrainian attack in October of 2022. As part of the restrictions, trucks and fuel continue to be transported by ferry. The ministry said that while the Crimean bridge remains a vital link to sustaining Russia’s campaign in southern Ukraine, it is also a security burden that requires extensive, multi-domain protection, tying up Russian resources that could be utilized elsewhere. U.K. Ministry of Defense X
Russia’s Lavrov Expresses Gratitude for North Korea’s Support in Ukraine War. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang and expressed appreciation for North Korea’s support of Moscow’s “special military operation” in Ukraine and pledged “complete support and solidarity” for Kim. North Korean media said the visit will stand as a "significant occasion,” and Russia’s TASS news agency said that Lavrov may update North Korean officials on the results of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s trip to China this week. Lavrov’s visit comes after Kim’s recent trip to Russia, where he discussed military cooperation with Putin. Lavrov’s trip also comes as the U.S. and its partners observe increased trade activity between Russia and North Korea, which they say could be military equipment transfers. Associated Press BBC Reuters
Radio Free Europe Says Russia Detained U.S. Journalist with Dual Citizenship. Russian authorities on Wednesday reportedly detained Russian-American journalist Alsu Kurmasheva, a Prague-based reporter who works for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, in Kazan on the charge of failing to register as a foreign agent, according to both her employer and the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ). Kurmasheva, who reportedly had both her Russian and American passports confiscated in early June during a trip to Russia, could face up to five years in prison for the foreign agent charge. The Russian Tatar-Inform news agency claimed she was collecting information on Russia’s military activities and did not register as a foreign agent. The CPJ has urged Russian officials to release her immediately and called the charges against her "spurious.” Kurmasheva’s detention comes months after the imprisonment of Wall Street Journal correspondent Evan Gershkovich, who was arrested in March on espionage charges, which he, his employer and the U.S. deny. Moscow has increasingly used its "foreign agent" legislation to penalize critics of the government. RFE/RL Reuters France 24 Barron's
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
North Korean Hackers Exploiting ‘TeamCity’ Software Previously Linked to SolarWinds. Multiple hacking groups affiliated with North Korea are exploiting a vulnerability in software code testing software produced by the Czech firm JetBrains. Microsoft reports that groups tracked by the names Diamond Sleet and Onyx Sleet have been observed targeting a bug in a software program called TeamCity. Microsoft reported its conclusion that “the threat actors may be opportunistically compromising vulnerable servers” while noting that the two groups may also have established “persistent access” by deploying malware and tools in targeted systems. More than 1,200 unpatched and vulnerable servers have been discovered. Microsoft did not disclose what organizations were attacked or the overall objectives of the intrusions. The TeamCity software from JetBrains was previously associated with the SolarWinds disaster in which a wide-ranging hack was enabled by backdoor malware planted in multiple clients using TeamCity. TheRecord BleepingComputer
U.S. Seizes 17 Website Domains Used by North Koreans to Fund Nuclear Program. On Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Justice announced the seizure of 17 website domains reportedly involved in a North Korean scheme to defraud foreign businesses in an effort to fund the country’s state nuclear program. The U.S. reported that North Korea allegedly oversees thousands of IT experts posing as freelance tech workers with the central aim of defrauding businesses once internal access is gained. The State Department said that North Korea “flooded the global marketplace with ill-intentioned information technology workers to indirectly fund its ballistic missile program.” In May, the U.S. and South Korea issued sanctions regarding IT workers hiding or lying about their nationality, location, and identity using forged documents to apply for work. The State Department continues to warn that hiring North Korean IT workers could lead to the theft of monetary and intellectual property. Reuters
China Ambitions for PLA Modernization Stymied by Export Curbs, Supply Chain Hurdles. In the second of a three-part series, the South China Morning Post analyzes the ambitions and challenges of Chinese military expansion and modernization. China’s leader Xi Jinping has said the transformation of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into a world-class military is one of the key “strategic requirements for comprehensively building a modern socialist country.” The PLA has succeeded in integrating advanced weapons and support systems while doubling its budget over the past 10 years. However, defense analysts say that major challenges remain for China’s goals, including U.S. restrictions on advanced technology, interruptions in key weapons supplies from Russia caused by Ukraine-related sanctions, and Beijing’s guarded attitude toward the private sector, which elsewhere serves as a catalyst for technological advances. Timothy Heath, a senior RAND defense analyst, said China will be forced to adapt to a situation in which it incorporates domestically available chips, which could result in “an increase in the gap between the quality and sophistication of U.S. weapons and equipment compared to China.” Heath went on to note that as a result of growing Western limitations on emerging technologies, China “will continue to suffer disadvantages in its MCF (military-civil fusion) program.” Furthermore, Western sanctions on Russian arms companies could complicate PLA advances. China was the world’s fifth largest weapons importer in 2022, with Russia providing 83 percent of China’s imported weapons between 2018-2022. South China Morning Post
Russian Hackers Attempt To Lure Malware Downloads with Drone Training Invitation. Russian hackers have attempted to lure phishing targets with fake invitations to a Ukrainian drone warfare school, Google’s Threat Analysis Group (TAG) reported Wednesday. Given the importance of drones to Ukraine’s military, the invitation to a phony drone training program appears focused on a key Ukrainian combat capability. The hackers exploited a flaw in WinRAR, a popular archiving tool, to embed malware in the invitations in an apparent effort to extract browser credentials, session information, and other data. TAG has attributed the campaign to the Russian military intelligence hacking unit tracked as “Frozenbarents” but more widely known as “Sandworm.” Although a patch has been available since August, TAG reported, the failure to apply the fix has resulted in “multiple government-backed actors from a number of countries exploiting the WinRAR vulnerability as part of their operation.” TAG researchers observed APT40, a Chinese hacking group, use the vulnerability as part of a phishing campaign targeting Papua New Guinea. According to TAG, the phony drone training invitation is a new tactic for Sandworm since it deployed the Rhadamanthys infostealer. Use of this malware is found more cybercriminals and is unusual for Sandworm. CyberScoop The Record
Lloyds Insurance Simulates Multi-Trillion Dollar Losses from Financial Sector Cyberattack. The Lloyds of London insurance firm said Wednesday that a major cyberattack targeting a financial services payment system could result in losses worldwide of $3.5 trillion, much of it not covered by insurance. In a systemic risk scenario developed by Lloyds and a Cambridge risk studies center, losses from such an attack in the U.S. alone could reach $1.1 trillion over a five-year period. The financial disruptions in the U.S. would trigger widespread upheavals for global business. A Lloyd’s executive noted that cyber interconnectedness across the globe supersedes the resources of any one sector, putting a premium on sharing of information and expertise across all sectors "to ensure we build society’s resilience against the potential scale of this risk.” Reuters
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
Japan Invites Australia to Join Military Exercises with U.S. Japan said on Thursday that it has, for the first time, invited Australia to participate in two regular command post military exercises conducted with the U.S. Japan’s Minister of Defense Minoru Kihara said he discussed the proposition with Australia’s Defense Minister Richard Marles. “We are expanding defense cooperation with Australia in all areas. Our goal is that in times of emergency we are able to work closely together,” Kihara said. Marles welcomed the closer security relationship with Japan, saying Canberra has “great strategic alignment” with Tokyo since they are “both allies of the United States, we both have a complex relationship with our largest trading partner China, and we have a deep relationship with each other.” This comes as both Japan and Australia have been concerned with China’s growing military power in the region. Reuters
Philippines Says No Current, Future Military Engagement with Taiwan. Philippine armed forces chief Romeo Brawner said on Thursday that Manila has no military engagements with Taiwan and does not foresee any in the future due to the risk of conflict amid mounting regional tensions. Brawner said the military is prepared for any eventuality but has not picked up any reports of planned assaults on Taiwan. The Philippine military has installed a naval detachment in the northern Philippine island of Mavulis, which lies 93.2 miles from the southernmost point of Taiwan. Manila adheres to the “One China Policy” and has ties with Taipei through its Manila Economic Cultural Office in Taiwan. Reuters
Taiwan Reports 13 Chinese Warplanes Enter Air Defense Zone. The Taiwanese defense ministry reported on Thursday morning that it had detected 13 Chinese military aircraft, including jets and drones, flying into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone while accompanying Chinese warships conducting drills and “combat patrols.” Over the past four years, Taiwan has repeatedly complained about Beijing’s military activity around the island, including such incursions into its air defense zone. Reuters Taiwan Ministry of National Defense X
Taliban Seeks to Formally Join China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Afghanistan’s acting Commerce Minister Maji Nooruddin Azizi said on Thursday that the Taliban administration would like to officially join China’s Belt and Road Initiative and will send a technical team to China for talks. China has sought to foster ties with the Taliban regime since it took over in 2021, even though no other government has formally recognized them. Last month, China became the first country to appoint an ambassador to Kabul since the Taliban takeover. With its vast deposits of untapped natural resources, Afghanistan could offer China a wealth of coveted minerals. Several Chinese companies already operate there, including the Metallurgical Corp. of China, which has held talks to establish a potentially huge copper mine. The Taliban sent representatives to China’s Belt and Road forum this week to express interest in joining the Beijing-led global infrastructure development strategy. Reuters
U.S. Lifts Broad Array of Venezuela Oil and Gas Sanctions. The Biden administration on Tuesday announced a six-month suspension of a broad array of sanctions on Venezuela’s oil and gas sector following an agreement between the Venezuelan government and opposition parties regarding a 2024 presidential election. In response to the electoral guarantees, the U.S. Treasury Department has authorized Venezuela to export oil and gas for the next six months. Secretary of State Antony Blinken welcomed the Venezuelan agreement, but said President Nicolas Maduro must begin lifting bans on opposition presidential candidates, and must begin releasing political prisoners and “wrongfully detained” Americans, by the end of November. State and Treasury Department officials said the U.S. will cancel the sanctions relief if Maduro does not take those actions. The agreement between the Venezuelan government and opposition did not include reinstatement of opposition candidates who had been barred from public office, but opposition chief negotiator Gerardo Blyde said in a social media post that the Maduro government has released five political prisoners, including a former opposition lawmaker. Reuters Wall Street Journal Washington Post
First Deportation Flight Lands in Venezuela Under New Biden Policy. On Wednesday, the first U.S. deportation flight under a new Biden administration policy landed in Caracas, Venezuela. The new policy reimplemented direct deportations after two years to curb the arrival of migrants fleeing Venezuela's economic and political turmoil. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement reports that around 130 Venezuelans were on the flight. Reuters Washington Post
Haiti Democratic Transition Council’s Secretary-General Reportedly Kidnapped. Anthony Virginie Saint-Pierre, the Secretary-General of Haiti's High Transition Council (HCT), was kidnapped Wednesday around noon in the Debussy quarter of the capital Port-au-Prince by armed men dressed as police. Mirlande Manigat, the chief of the committee, which is tasked with developing a plan for elections scheduled for 2024, reported the kidnapping. Local media said that fighting had also broken out in the Petion-Ville neighborhood of the capital between the Haitian national police and the Kraze Barye gang. In early September, the U.N. estimated that at least 970 Haitians have been kidnapped in 2023, as the nation struggles to counter powerful gangs which control much of Port-au-Prince. Reuters
Brazilian Congressional Panel Says Bolsonaro Should Be Charged with Attempting a Coup. A Brazilian congressional committee accused former President Jair Bolsonaro of instigating the January 8 riots in the capital Brasilia and recommended he be charged with attempting a coup. The panel, made up of senators and representatives mostly allied with current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, voted 20-11 to adopt a report with those recommendations. The report is seen as largely symbolic because police and prosecutors are already investigating Bolsonaro’s possible role in the riots. Bolsonaro has denied involvement, and he called the report “completely biased.” Associated Press
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