10:00 AM ET, Thursday, November 16, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines:
THE TOP STORIES
Biden and Xi Meet, Agree on Areas of Cooperation, But Tensions Remain. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met for four hours of talks at an estate outside San Francisco yesterday, attempting what the Wall Street Journal called a reset that will be tested quickly by deep China-U.S. disagreements. The two leaders agreed to resume military-to-military communications, cooperate in cutting fentanyl trafficking, and begin talks on the risks of artificial intelligence. Biden hailed the meeting in a tweet, saying he and Xi “made real progress” in “some of the most constructive and productive conversations we’ve had.” Nevertheless, tensions remained. China’s official Xinhua News Agency reported Xi expressed continued resolve to resist any U.S. moves deemed to hurt China’s interests, quoting Xi as saying that while China has no plans to surpass or replace the United States, the U.S. should have no plans “to suppress or contain China.” Xi complained specifically about increasing American export restrictions on advanced computer chips. A senior Biden Administration official said Biden expressed to Xi Washington’s concerns about Ukraine and asked for China’s help in dissuading Iran from escalating the Middle East conflict. Xinhua reported Xi urged Biden to demonstrate that the U.S. does not support Taiwanese independence and supports the peaceful reunification of Taiwan with China. The senior Biden Administration official said the two leaders had “a substantial exchange” over Taiwan. He said Biden reiterated the U.S. determination to maintain peace and stability and that he urged Beijing to respect Taiwan’s electoral process. Asked if he trusts Xi, Biden said, “Trust but verify, as the saying goes. That’s where I am.” Wall Street Journal New York Times Bloomberg South China Morning Post South China Morning Post
Biden Refers to Xi as a Dictator Following Their Meeting. Following his meeting with President Xi Jinping yesterday, President Biden stood by his previous description of the Chinese leader as a dictator. Responding to a reporter’s question at a press conference, Biden said Xi is “a dictator in the sense that he’s a guy who runs a country that is a communist country.” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning said afterward that Biden’s statement was “extremely incorrect and irresponsible.” During a fundraiser in North Carolina in June, Biden described Xi as a dictator, a remark Chinese officials called an absurd provocation. Politico Bloomberg
Philippines Calls on China to Remove Illegal Structures, Cease Reclamations in South China Sea. The Philippines foreign ministry said Thursday that it is not obliged to inform China about its resupply operations in the South China Sea, arguing that these missions, including the "upkeep" of a grounded navy ship in the hotly disputed Second Thomas Shoal, are legitimate and legal. The Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) also demanded that China dismantle all "illegal structures" it constructed within Manila’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), put a stop to reclamation in those places, and take responsibility for the damage such activities caused. DFA spokesperson Teresita Daza asserted that the Philippines would not notify Beijing every time it deploys a vessel to transport food and water to Filipino troops living aboard an intentionally grounded warship on the contested atoll. Daza added that Manila has not agreed to abandon “its sovereign rights and jurisdiction over its EEZ and continental shelf.” U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Philippine counterpart Gilberto Teodoro Jr., who met Wednesday at the Asean Defense Ministers’ Meeting-Plus in Jakarta, condemned “the recent harassment” by Chinese ships toward the Philippine coast guard. Beijing, which claims sovereignty over nearly the entire South China Sea despite a 2016 ruling from the Permanent Court of Arbitration disputing this, has repeatedly accused the Philippines of illegally entering its waters. The Chinese embassy in Manila has not yet responded to requests for comment. Reuters Bloomberg
Congress Averts Government Shutdown. The U.S. Senate voted 87-11 late yesterday to approve a temporary funding measure to avert a government shutdown, delaying debate over federal spending until next year. The agreement did not include emergency aid to Israel or Ukraine. The House already has approved the bill, which President Biden is expected to sign. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said assistance for Israel and Ukraine will be the Senate’s next priority and that work on the issue will begin immediately when Congress returns from Thanksgiving. Schumer said Democrats will negotiate in good faith over Republican demands that Ukraine funding be tied to increased U.S.-Mexico border security. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, however, said Democrats do not yet seem willing to make the policy changes needed to slow the flow of migrants into the U.S. Bloomberg Wall Street Journal
ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR
Israel Orders Residents of Towns in Southern Gaza to Leave. Israel ordered civilians in four towns east of Khafa Younis in the southern Gaza Strip to leave their homes, raising concerns that Israel’s military is expanding operations against Hamas to areas it has told Palestinians would be safe. Israeli aircraft dropped leaflets onto the towns telling civilians there to leave. The towns collectively had over 100,000 residents in peace time but are now sheltering tens of thousands of refugees from other parts of Gaza. Reuters The Hill
Biden Defends Israel’s Raid of Al-Shifa Hospital. President Joe Biden on Wednesday defended Israel’s raid of Gaza’s largest hospital, Al-Shifa, and asserted that Hamas’s usage of a hospital as a military command center amounted to a “war crime.” The IDF, which said it was still searching through the medical compound, released pictures and footage of weapons and military equipment reportedly found in the MRI wing of the facility, and claimed to have discovered radio equipment, grenades, AK-47s, military uniforms, and a battle vest with the emblem of Hamas’s military. Israeli military spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said the “findings unequivocally prove” that Hamas used the hospital for “terror” in “violation of international law.” The footage did not provide evidence that Hamas is operating a sprawling underground tunnel network under the hospital, a claim Israel has repeatedly alleged. White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Washington is “comfortable” with an intelligence evaluation that Hamas is using the hospital as a command hub, though the militant group continues to deny all accusations and has allegedly invited international agencies to come inspect the complex themselves. Both the U.N. and several Middle Eastern nations, such as Turkey and Jordan, denounced Israel’s decision to send forces into the hospital. Associated Press Bloomberg Washington Post Wall Street Journal
Biden Tells Israel Occupying Gaza Would be a Mistake, Two-State Solution Only Option. President Joe Biden said Wednesday that he has told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that occupation of Gaza would be a “big mistake” and that a two-state solution was the only option to resolve the bloody conflict between the IDF and Hamas militants. Biden also told reporters that he was engaged in efforts to secure the release of hostages being held by Hamas in the Palestinian enclave, but reiterated that he would stop short of deploying the U.S. military. Meditation between the militant group and Israeli authorities for the liberation of 240 hostages has been headed by Qatar, where Hamas has a political office. Additionally, Biden said he told Israel to “be incredibly careful” while raiding the Gazan hospital Al-Shifa, though he asserted that Hamas’s alleged use of the medical complex as a command node was a “war crime.” Reuters Al Jazeera
FBI Opens Investigations of Hamas. FBI Director Christopher Wray said yesterday that the bureau has opened several investigations of Hamas as it seeks to prevent potential attacks and cut off financial support for the organization. Testifying before the House Committee on Homeland Security about worldwide threats to the U.S., Wray said the FBI has a large number of leads regarding Hamas “radicalization and recruitment” and he said the FBI does not discount the possibility that Hamas might attack the U.S. on its own soil. Wray said that the possibility of attacks by terrorist organizations on Jewish Americans or other communities of faith including Muslims are of particular concern, and he added that by far the largest number of reported threats have been made against the Jewish community. New York Times
U.N. Security Council Approves Resolution Calling for Humanitarian Pauses and Release of Hostages. The U.N. Security Council has approved a resolution urging immediate “humanitarian pauses and corridors” in Gaza and the release of all hostages held by Hamas. Four similar proposals were blocked since the Israel-Hamas war began. Twelve countries voted in favor of the resolution, while the U.S., U.K., and Russia abstained. The International Rescue Committee has said that a ceasefire for a minimum of five days would be necessary to restore basic services in Gaza. Israeli Ambassador to the U.N. Gilad Erdan criticized the resolution, saying it is“disconnected from reality and is meaningless,” adding that Israel will “continue acting according to international law” while Hamas will not adhere to the resolution. The resolution is separate from reported efforts by the U.S. and Qatar to broker a deal on pauses in fighting and release of hostages. Bloomberg CNN
U.S. Lawmakers Call for Data on Hamas Use of Crypto. U.S. House lawmakers requested that President Joe Biden and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen provide information on how Hamas has utilized digital assets to finance its operations in the Middle East. A bipartisan group of representatives, led by House Financial Services Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry, Majority Whip Tom Emmer, and Digital Asset Subcommittee Chairman James Hill, wrote a letter arguing that Congress needs information on “the size, scope, and duration of Hamas’s digital asset operations.” The letter said that Congress “must understand'' whether the U.S. was successful in “seizing illicit digital assets,” and also notes that it seems Hamas’s financial efforts are exploiting exchanges linked to countries hostile or adversarial to the U.S., such as Russia’s Garantex, China’s Binance, and the Gaza-based Buy Cash. The group, which asked for a response to its inquiries by November 29th, seeks to know how many digital wallets connected to Hamas, Hezbollah, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad have been discovered by Washington, and how much they are worth. Bloomberg
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
Ukrainian Troops Advance in Russian-Occupied Kherson Region. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says that Ukraine is conducting larger than usual operations on the Russian-occupied east bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region. There are reports of Ukrainian advances near the communities of Poima and Peschanivka on the eastern bank of the Dnipro. Natalia Humenyuk, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command, adds that Ukrainian forces are establishing a buffer zone of three to eight kilometers on the east bank. The ISW said this area is significantly larger than what available open-source evidence shows about Ukrainian advances in the area. The reports come after Ukraine said on Tuesday that it established a foothold on the eastern bank, taking positions in three areas and cutting off a road Russia used to supply troops in the area. Russia acknowledged the Ukrainian progress and vowed to rain “Hell fire” on attacking Ukrainian troops. An advance in Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the Kherson region could further pressure and strain Russian forces. The ISW has said that Russia is likely being limited in its ability to launch offensive operations as it must choose between bolstering defenses against Ukrainian attacks or supporting efforts to regain the initiative elsewhere. Institute for the Study of War Reuters Kyiv Independent
Ukraine Intercepts Russian Attack Drones Launched Overnight. Ukraine’s Air Force said Ukrainian forces downed 16 of 18 Shahed “kamikaze” drones launched by Russia overnight. The Air Force said fighter jets, anti-aircraft missile units, and mobile fire units shot down the drones. A Russian Kh-59 missile was also downed over the central Potlava region. Russia also fired S-300 anti-aircraft missiles at the eastern Kharkiv region which damaged some buildings but did not cause casualties. Kyiv Independent
U.K.'s New Foreign Secretary Cameron Meets Zelensky in Kyiv. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky met with British Foreign Secretary David Cameron as the former prime minister undertook his first working trip abroad since being named foreign minister on Monday. Zelensky said he is grateful for the gesture, which comes amid the conflict in the Middle East, which he says has drawn attention from Russia’s war on Ukraine. Cameron said the U.K. will continue to provide moral, diplomatic and, above all, military support for Ukraine for “however long it takes.” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said the U.K. continues to support Ukraine with weapons and efforts to eliminate the Russian threat in the Black Sea, where Ukraine is trying to maintain a shipping corridor to revive its exports. Reuters Kyiv Independent
U.A.E. President Shows Solidarity with Russia at Dubai Air Show. U.A.E. President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan toured the Dubai Air Show’s display of Russian helicopters in active use in the war on Ukraine on Wednesday. Some speculate this was done in an attempt to show solidarity with Russia amid Western sanctions. Prominent in the show was the display of a KA-52 attack helicopter. The maker of the KA-52 model, Russian Helicopters, has been sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury. Russian drones and firearms were also featured in the display. The U.S. Treasury has expressed concerns over the economic ties between the U.A.E. and Russia in recent months. Russian money still plays a prominent role in Dubai's real estate and air travel markets. Associated Press
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
CISA Releases AI ‘Roadmap’ Outlining Role in Protecting Infrastructure, App Safety. CISA’s release of a “Roadmap for Artificial Intelligence” underscores the agency’s strategy for protecting critical infrastructure from AI-powered threats and more broadly to combat malicious use of the technology. The roadmap also outlines measures the agency will take to grow AI expertise in its workforce. The CISA document CIS notes the twin threats posed by AI and by older software that was not built with “secure by design” standards. CISA Director Jen Easterly issued a statement on the roadmap, describing it as “an agency-wide plan to promote the beneficial uses of AI…; ensure AI systems are protected from cyber-based threats; and deter the malicious use of AI capabilities to threaten the critical infrastructure...” CISA announced plans for a website, JCDC.AI, to coordinate response to threats and vulnerabilities tied to AI systems. Easterly emphasized the shared role of public and private sectors in ensuring AI safety and security: “AI manufacturers [need] to take accountability for the security outcomes – that is the whole idea of shifting the burden onto those companies that can most bear it.” Easterly described the importance of those building and designing AI applications to embrace “radical transparency” to ensure the contents of software are known and protected. CyberScoop Wired CISA
Scale AI, CSIS Announce Development of AI Tools for World Affairs Analysis, War Gaming. Scale AI, a developer of AI applications, on Wednesday announced an agreement with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington think tank, to develop AI models that can be used for international relations strategy and war gaming. John Brennan, Scale public sector manager, said that cyberattacks, disinformation, and “black-box AI developments from foreign adversaries” will be focal points of the collaboration. CSIS senior fellow Ben Jensen noted in a statement that AI has “game-changing potential if applied thoughtfully to foreign policy and national security concerns.” Jensen added that the AI collaboration will enhance CSIS understanding of global events and “and offer data-driven recommendations to support the U.S. national strategy in an increasingly complex world." In a blog post, Scale explained that the joint development of customized large language models “will help uncover subtle patterns and connections that traditional, older methods may overlook.” Semafor
SEC Official Defends Pending Rule Requiring Public Company Disclosure of Cyberattacks. Erik Gerding, corporate finance director for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), said the controversial SEC rule compelling disclosure of cyberattacks by public companies was prompted by underreporting of cyber incidents. The SEC rule, which is scheduled to go into effect in December, requires companies to disclose cybersecurity incidents within four business days of determining they are material. Gerding, speaking at the Aspen Cyber Summit, described a material incident as a basic judgment call based on “what a reasonable investor would consider to be significant.” There is an exception for incidents the Attorney General determines could pose a national security risk if publicly disclosed. Participating in a separate Aspen Cyber Summit panel discussion, Bryan Vorndran, assistant director of the FBI's Cyber Division, confirmed the Justice Department will "provide public-facing guidance in the next month” for procedures by which companies can delay cyber incident disclosure under the new SEC rule. Gerding said that Investors deserve prompt information on cyber incidents, saying they are "very similar to other kinds of risks companies face," such as accidental destruction of equipment or interest rate movements. The Record
Baidu CEO Assails Surge of Chinese AI Language Models as ‘Huge Waste of Resources’. Robin Li Yanhong, the co-founder of China’s Baidu Internet search service, has described the duplicative release of AI large language models as a “huge waste of resources.” At the X-Lake Forum in Shenzhen Wednesday, Li urged the government to promote the demand side of AI development by encouraging companies to deploy LLM’s that result in new AI applications. Li contrasted the launch of the 238 LLM’s in China over the last several months with the scarcity of successful public AI applications. “There are too many big models in China,” Li said, “but too few AI-native applications based on those models,” adding “we need 1 million AI-native applications, but we don’t need 100 big models.” Li urged industry to be more creative in developing AI applications based on the big models, which he said “will surely create a prosperous AI ecosystem and drive a new round of economic growth.” China’s major tech firms and AI start-ups are competing to provide their own ChatGPT-like services. Baidu was China’s first major firm to launch a chatbot, Ernie Bot, which debuted in March. According to the company, Ernie Bot now has a total user base of 45 million and 54,000 developers. Li noted that Ernie Bot’s application programming interface call volume has grown exponentially August, outpacing “the other 200 models' ' combined. South China Morning Post Reuters
Meta Allows Ads Saying 2020 Election Rigged. Meta is allowing political advertising on Facebook and Instagram that dispute the legitimacy of the 2020 U.S. presidential election. In a change that was made last year, but which did not gain wide attention, the company said political advertising could say previous elections have been rigged, but said that advertising could not question the legitimacy of coming elections in the U.S. as well as in Brazil, Israel or Italy. People familiar with the issue say Meta made the decision based on free-speech considerations after considering past elections in which the results might have been contested by a portion of the electorate. Wall Street Journal
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
Asia and Oceania
Taiwan Presidential Frontrunner to Select U.S. Envoy as Running Mate. Taiwan’s Vice President Lai Ching-te, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s candidate for presidential elections in January, has selected Taipei’s envoy to the U.S., Hsiao Bi-Khim, to be his running mate, according to sources with direct knowledge. Hsiao has been Taiwan’s de facto ambassador to Washington since 2020. Sources say she will be formally chosen as Lai’s running mate on Monday when she returns to Taiwan after the APEC summit in San Francisco. Sources added that Hsiao has critical international experience and is well-known in Washington, meaning she can act as a key channel between the U.S. and Taiwan. China detests Hsiao and has sanctioned her twice for being an “independence diehard.” China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said on Wednesday that Lai and Hsiao would be an “independence double act” and that it is “very clear” what the two of them working together will mean “for the situation in the Taiwan Strait,” though it didn’t elaborate. Reuters
US, China, Southeast Asia Defense Officials Meet Amid Crises. Defense ministers from the U.S., China, Russia and Southeast Asia met in Jakarta at an annual meeting of ASEAN defense chiefs on Thursday. They were expected to discuss a number of geopolitical crises in the region and elsewhere. Yesterday, ASEAN defense ministers called for a ceasefire in Gaza and a durable solution to the conflict in Myanmar. Reuters
North Korea Vows More Offensive Response to U.S. 'Threats'. North Korea’s KCNA news agency reported on Thursday that Pyongyang criticized a recent visit to South Korea by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and other senior U.S. defense officials and promised “more offensive and overwhelming counteraction capabilities” in response to what North Korea called U.S. military threats. During Austin’s visit, the U.S. and South Korea revised a bilateral security agreement regarding North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats. This week the Pentagon also announced that the State Department approved the potential sale of Sidewinder missiles and the Standard Missile 6 Block I to South Korea. Reuters US DoD DSCA
Man Rams Barricade Near Israeli Embassy in Tokyo. A 53-year-old man rammed his car into a barricade near the Israeli embassy in Tokyo on Thursday, injuring a police officer. Authorities arrested the man and said that they suspected him of being a member of an unspecified right-wing organization. Israel’s ambassador to Japan Gilad Cohen said he was “shocked” by the incident and praised Japanese police for ensuring security. Japan has increased security around the Israeli embassy since the Hamas attacks on October 7. Reuters
Myanmar Junta Sees 'Heavy Assault' from Armed Insurgents in Three States. Myanmar’s ruling military junta said on Wednesday it is experiencing “heavy assault” by insurgents and ordered government personnel to prepare for emergencies. Junta spokesperson Zaw Min Tun said the military was facing severe attacks from “a significant number of armed rebel soldiers" in the northeast state of Shan, the Rakhine and Chin states in the west, and Kayah state in the east. Zaw Min Tun reported that the rebels have been employing drones to drop bombs on hundreds of military positions, and that some military posts have been evacuated. Tin Maung Swe, the secretary of Naypyitaw Council, said that the capital was calm, but government staff have been instructed to create units to respond to "emergency" situations. Khit Thit media reported Wednesday that the military's State Administration Council (SAC) ordered all those with basic military training to be ready to serve. Reuters could not confirm the developments. A rebel group claimed on Wednesday that dozens of security forces members have surrendered or been captured in Rakhine state, and rebels in the western Chin state said they took over two military bases and a border crossing with India. Reuters Reuters
Europe
German Police Raid Iran-Linked Center over Suspected Ties to Hezbollah. Germany’s interior ministry said German police conducted raids in seven states over the Islamic Center of Hamburg’s suspected support of Hezbollah. Authorities searched over 50 properties and five other organizations connected to the center, which has strong ties to Iran and is suspected of violating Germany’s constitutional order. The ministry said the raids focused on gathering evidence for its investigation. German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser emphasized that authorities are “acting against Islamists, not against a religion or another state.” Germany banned Hezbollah’s activities in 2020. Reuters
Denmark Considers Blocking Russian Oil Tankers from its Territorial Waters.The Financial Times reports that Denmark could begin inspecting and blocking Russian oil tankers in its waters. The new policy would target tankers operating without Western insurance, which some have started to do to evade the U.S.-led price cap of $60 per barrel on Russian oil exports. Tankers that violate the price cap will be barred from Western services, such as insurance. Denmark could also potentially stop the tankers on environmental grounds. According to the International Law of the Sea, a country may take steps to detain tankers if there is “clear objective evidence” of a potential environmental threat. This could potentially apply to the tankers since the E.U. has raised concern that Russian tankers with non-Western or falsified insurance do not have coverage for oil spills. The Danish measure would comes as Western countries struggle to enforce the price cap, which has proven ineffective as Russian oil is consistently being traded over $80 per barrel, back to levels before the Ukraine war. Russian oil revenue in October was still as much as $5.75 billion higher than what it was after the price cap went into effect in January. Kyiv Independent Financial Times
Prime Minister Sunak Seeks to Revive Rwanda Asylum Seeker Policy. The Supreme Court of the U.K. ruled on Wednesday that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s policy to have asylum seekers sent to Rwanda was unlawful. The Court highlighted “significant changes” that needed to be made before Rwanda could be considered a safe country to host deportees. Sunak now vowed to revive his immigration policy, saying that he will work with the government of Rwanda to have the nation designated as a safe country and meet other points mentioned by the Supreme Court. Interior Minister James Cleverly discussed having the treaty upgraded to a legally binding document that would prevent deportees from being sent to any country other than Great Britain from Rwanda, though legal scholars have raised concerns about how the plan will affect British adherence to international obligations. Reuters
The Americas
Haitian Police Rescue Women and Children at Hospital taken Hostage by Armed Gang. An armed gang surrounded a Haitian hospital, trapping women, children, and newborns inside on Wednesday. Jose Ulysse, director of the Fontaine Hospital Center in the Cite Soleil slum in the capital Port-au-Prince, said on social media that “hundreds” of patients at the hospital were taken hostage. Ulysse told the Associated Press that gang members lit fires around hospital entrances to prevent patients and medical professionals from leaving the building, though it appeared that members did not enter the building. Armored trucks arrived on the scene and safely evacuated 40 children and 70 patients to a nearby home, many of whom needed supplemental oxygen. Ulysse and the National Police suspect that members of the Brooklyn gang, which controls much of Cite Soleil, were responsible. The group has been involved in recent acts of extortion and violence, according to a U.N. report. Director Ulysse claims that he has been the target of gang violence twice. Associated Press
The data cutoff for this product was 8:00a.m. E.T.
Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell, and Emma Fisk contributed to this report.
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