10:00 AM ET, Thursday, January 4, 2024
Daily national security briefings aren’t just for the president anymore. The Cipher Brief uses AI partnered with human analysis and expert perspective to keep you up-to-date on national security news from around the world.
Here’s what’s happening now:
THE TOP STORIES
White House meeting to discuss options for striking Houthis. The White House held a meeting to discuss potential military responses to Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. The meeting aimed to explore more robust options, including strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, possibly in cooperation with other nations. While the U.S. military has prepared various options for strikes, none have been approved by President Joe Biden. The recent escalation in attacks includes Houthi forces firing on U.S. Navy helicopters, prompting a response that sank three boats and killed ten fighters. Calls for a stronger response have arisen, as shooting down drones alone may not deter these attacks. The administration is also working to build a coalition with other countries to pressure the Houthis and their supporter, Iran, to end attacks on commercial shipping. Concerns over potential disruptions to global trade and the world economy complicate the decision on military action. NBC News
NATO-Ukraine Council to hold emergency meeting in response to Russia’s mass strikes on Ukraine. NATO has approved Ukraine's request for an emergency meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Council in response to Russia's recent large-scale attacks on Ukraine, according to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. In the past five days, Russia launched over 500 missiles and drones at Ukraine, resulting in casualties among civilians. Strengthening Ukraine's air defense will be a key topic during the upcoming emergency meeting, although details about the meeting's timing and location have not been specified. Kuleba praised NATO's decision to hold the meeting as a significant demonstration of Euro-Atlantic unity in response to the escalation of Russian aggression. This move comes after Russia's recent attacks, which included a significant air assault that killed dozens and injured many more in Ukraine. Kyiv Independent Bloomberg
ISRAEL HAMAS WAR
More than 100 killed in explosions near tomb of Iranian Guards' Soleimani. Two explosions occurred during a ceremony in Iran commemorating top commander Qassem Soleimani, who was killed by a U.S. drone in 2020. Iranian officials blamed unspecified "terrorists" for the blasts, which took place at the cemetery where Soleimani is buried in the city of Kerman. The explosions killed more than 100 people and injured over 200, making it one of the worst attacks in Iran in recent years. While no group claimed responsibility, Iran has faced similar incidents in the past from various groups, including the Islamic State. The explosions raised concerns about security at the event, as the huge crowd made it challenging to evacuate the wounded promptly. Iran's Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi vowed a strong response to those behind the attack. Although Iran did not publicly assign blame, the U.S. assassination of Soleimani in 2020 and Iran's subsequent retaliatory actions brought the two nations close to full-blown conflict. Tensions between Iran, Israel, and the U.S. have escalated recently over various regional issues, including Israel's conflict with Iranian-backed Hamas militants and attacks on ships in the Red Sea, which Iran-backed Houthi militia claim to be linked to Israel. Reuters Wall Street JournalNew York Times
Hezbollah chief vows ‘response and punishment’ after killing of senior Hamas leader in Lebanon. Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah issued a warning to Israel following the death of senior Hamas leader Saleh Arouri in a suspected Israeli drone strike in a Beirut suburb. Nasrallah stated that Israel should expect "a response and punishment" for the attack. Nasrallah also claimed that Israel is concealing casualties in the thousands on the Lebanese front and asserted that Hezbollah is not afraid of an all-out war with Israel, being prepared to fight with "no limits." Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed militant group based in Lebanon, has recently engaged in hostilities with Israel. The Lebanese government has called on Hezbollah to exercise restraint. Israel has not officially claimed responsibility for the Beirut attack, but a U.S. defense official, speaking anonymously, confirmed Israel's involvement. The Israel Defense Forces reported retaliatory action after detecting launches from Lebanon and targeting Hezbollah infrastructure in the country. Washington PostAl Jazeera
Israel’s Mossad chief vows to hunt down Hamas militants no matter where they are. The director of Israel's Mossad intelligence agency, David Barnea, has pledged to apprehend and punish all militants behind the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, no matter where they are. At the funeral of former Mossad head Zvi Zamir, Barnea asserted that Israel will track down the militants no matter how long it takes, drawing parallels to the hunt for those involved in the 1972 Munich Olympics massacre. His comments came after an Israeli drone strike killed senior Hamas leader Saleh Arouri in Beirut, Lebanon. Barnea did not explicitly claim responsibility but affirmed Mossad's commitment to settling the score for the attack on Israel. Israel has a history of overseas assassinations, and Barnea's statement echoes Prime Minister Netanyahu's directive for Mossad to act against Hamas leaders globally. Associated Press Washington Post
U.S., allies warn Houthis against further Red Sea attacks. The U.S. and 11 other countries issued a strong condemnation of Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, warned against further attacks and called for the immediate release of unlawfully detained vessels and crews. The countries called the attacks “illegal, unacceptable, and profoundly destabilizing,” emphasizing that they threatened lives and the global economy. The statement came after U.S. helicopters sank three Houthi boats that fired on them in the Red Sea. U.S. officials say that the U.S. military has prepared options to strike the Iran-backed group, with potential targets including missile launchers, drones, coastal radar installations, and munition storage sites. The Biden administration has been cautious about using force to avoid an escalation to a wider regional conflict. The Houthis say they are attacking ships in the Red Sea in response to the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. Wall Street JournalCNN South China Morning Post
OPINION – The U.S. can strike Houthi and Iranian targets to protect Red Sea shipping. Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander and Cipher Brief Expert Admiral James Stavridis (Ret.) suggests a multifaceted approach to deter further attacks by the Iran-backed Houthis in the Red Sea against commercial vessels. He argues that Operation Prosperity Guardian, the U.S.-led naval coalition tasked with defending shipping lanes in the area, cannot solely work on bolstering defenses. He proposes that U.S. rules of engagement be modified to allow the coalition to take offensive action against verified Houthi military targets at sea and ashore. He also considers directly targeting Iranian assets if there is clear evidence of Tehran’s support for Houthi attacks. Stavridis urges a careful, calibrated approach to avoid an escalation into a broader regional conflict but draws parallels to past successful deterrence measures against Iran to send a clear message that the attacks must stop. Bloomberg
UAE pledges to maintain ties with Israel amid Gaza conflict. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) says it remains committed to its decision to forge warmer relations with Israel despite the mounting pressure on Arab governments to sever ties due to civilian casualties in Gaza from Israeli military operations targeting Hamas. Anwar Gargash, a UAE presidential diplomatic adviser, emphasized that the move is a long-term strategic decision. Gargash added that the UAE is working to support Palestinians through increased Arab political coordination and exerting pressure on Israel for a political solution. Several Arab states, including the UAE and Bahrain, established diplomatic relations with Israel through the Abraham Accords in late 2020. The UAE’s decision to maintain ties with Israel comes despite the halt in U.S. efforts to persuade Saudi Arabia to normalize ties following the October 7 Hamas attack. Bloomberg
Malaysia, Turkey back South Africa’s ‘genocide’ case against Israel at ICJ. Malaysia and Turkey have both expressed support for South Africa's case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) over alleged genocidal acts in Gaza. South Africa accuses Israel of violating the 1948 Genocide Convention, specifically intending to destroy Palestinians in Gaza as part of the broader Palestinian ethnic group. Malaysia, a fellow Genocide Convention State Party, said it sees the lawsuit as a timely and tangible step to hold Israel accountable for actions in Gaza. The Malaysian foreign ministry urged Israel to fulfill international law obligations and cease atrocities against Palestinians. Malaysia has historically supported the Palestinian cause and advocates for a two-state solution. Turkey likewise said it officially supports South Africa's ICJ case, emphasizing that Israel's military operations have reportedly caused 22,000 Palestinian deaths in Gaza and should not go unpunished. Turkey has said it expects the ICJ to issue an interim injunction calling for a halt to Israel's military actions in Gaza. Middle East EyeSouth China Morning Post
U.S. State Department says ‘not seeing’ acts of genocide in Gaza. A U.S. State Department spokesperson said that the U.S. is “not seeing” acts in Gaza that constitute genocide. His comments came in response to South Africa's move to launch genocide proceedings at the International Court of Justice over Israel's military operation in the Palestinian enclave. The spokesperson did not provide an assessment on whether war crimes or crimes against humanity have been committed. The court has scheduled public hearings for January 11 and 12 on South Africa's request. Washington has called for Israel to conduct more targeted military operations in Gaza. It has also criticized Israeli ministers advocating the resettlement of Palestinians outside Gaza, but U.S. officials say they have been assured that these ministers’ views do not reflect Israeli government policy. Israel has called the genocide case "baseless," asserting that Hamas uses Palestinians as human shields and steals aid. Reuters
A look at killings of militant leaders believed targeted by Israel. The South China Morning Post is out with a new piece that looks at Israel’s history of targeted killings. This follows the recent air strike in Beirut that killed a top Hamas leader. While Israel has not officially claimed responsibility for the attack, it bears the hallmarks of previous Israeli operations. The strike comes after Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have repeatedly threatened to kill Hamas leaders in response to the group's actions. Here's a timeline of some notable targeted killings by Israel, including:
- The 2019 strike that killed senior Islamic Jihad commander Bahaa Abu el-Atta in Gaza.
- The 2012 assassination of Hamas' military chief, Ahmad Jabari, which sparked an eight-day war.
- The 2010 killing of Hamas operative Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in a Dubai hotel room, attributed to the Mossad spy agency.
- The 2008 assassination of Hezbollah's military chief, Imad Mughniyeh, in Damascus.
- The 2004 killing of Hamas spiritual leader Ahmed Yassin.
- The 2002 strike that killed Hamas' No. 2 military leader, Salah Shehadeh.
- The 1997 attempted poisoning of Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal in Jordan.
- The 1996 assassination of Islamic Jihad founder Fathi Shikaki in Malta.
- The 1988 killing of PLO military chief Khalil al-Wazir in Tunisia.
- The 1973 raid in Beirut that targeted PLO leaders in retaliation for the Munich Olympics attack.
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
Ukraine cybersecurity chief says Russian hackers were inside Ukraine telecoms giant for months. Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) cybersecurity chief Illia Vitiuk told Reuters that Russian hackers breached Ukraine’s biggest telecoms company, Kyivstar, and has been inside the company’s system since at least May. The hack interrupted service for approximately 24 million users for several days last month. Vitiuk said the attack was aimed at striking a psychological blow and gathering intelligence and that it resulted in “disastrous destruction,” though it did not have a major impact on Ukraine’s military. He also called the attack a major warning to the West that “no one is actually untouchable.” Vitiuk said the SBU helped Kyivstar restore its systems and to defend against future attacks. The SBU believes the hackers were able to steal personal information, intercept SMS messages and possibly steal Telegram accounts. Vitiuk said he is fairly certain that the attack was the work of the Russian military intelligence cyberwarfare unit Sandworm, which has been linked to cyberattacks in Ukraine and elsewhere. Reuters
Ukraine, Russia conduct UAE-mediated prisoner exchange. Russia and Ukraine announced on Wednesday that they conducted an exchange of more than 200 prisoners by each side. The exchange, the first in almost five months and the largest in the war thus far, was mediated by the UAE. The Russian Defense Ministry said Ukraine returned 248 military personnel and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia returned 224 soldiers and six civilians. Zelensky promised to push for more prisoner exchanges. ReutersNew York Times Bloomberg
Ukrainians shun TV news program as war drags on. Telemarathon United News, a 24/7 news program in Ukraine, launched in response to Russia's invasion, was initially seen as a vital tool in holding the country together, providing crucial information during the conflict's early days. However, after almost two years of war, the program is now criticized as a government mouthpiece, accused of presenting an overly optimistic view of the war and neglecting concerning developments. Viewership and trust in Telemarathon have plummeted, with critics calling it “state propaganda.” Critics argue that Telemarathon is now doing more harm than good, creating an optimistic view that may lead to disappointment and obscuring the reality of a prolonged war requiring more sacrifice. There are also concerns that it has transformed into a public relations tool for Zelensky, raising questions about its role in shaping public opinion and defending democracy during wartime, especially when channels run by Zelensky's political opponents were barred from joining Telemarathon. New York Times
Russia blocks UN nuclear inspectors from inspecting Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that inspectors have been denied access to parts of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station in Ukraine's Russian-occupied territory. The facility was seized by Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The IAEA inspectors have not been granted access to the main halls of reactors one, two, and six for two weeks, where the reactor core and spent fuel are located. Access to turbine halls at the plant has also been restricted. Ukraine's state nuclear power company Energoatom suggested that Russia might be trying to hide the true state of affairs at the plant. The IAEA has repeatedly called for an end to fighting in the vicinity of the facility to prevent a catastrophic accident. The plant's operators have ensured backup electricity supplies, as the facility needs power to cool its reactors even when shut down. The IAEA has also requested the 2024 maintenance schedule, which has not yet been provided. ReutersSouth China Morning Post
Russia accidentally bombs own village. A Russian warplane reportedly accidentally bombed the Russian village of Petropavlovka in the southern Voronezh region on Wednesday. The Russian defense ministry reported an “abnormal discharge of aircraft ammunition” over the village. Voronezh Governor Alexander Gusev said he has ordered the rebuilding of nine houses damaged in the incident and also confirmed damage to a local school, arts center, and administrative building. He added that four people were injured in the incident. Authorities did not say what caused the accidental bombing. ReutersFinancial Times Kyiv Post
Russia reportedly planning to buy ballistic missiles from Iran. Russia is reportedly planning to purchase short-range ballistic missiles from Iran for use in its invasion of Ukraine. U.S. officials warn that the acquisition would enhance Moscow's capability to target Ukraine's infrastructure. Officials say that negotiations between Russia and Iran on the matter are actively advancing, with the delivery of Iranian missiles possibly happening as soon as in the spring. Officials added that Russia’s desire to acquire Iranian missiles became apparent during a December visit by a Russian delegation to an Iranian training area, where ballistic missiles were displayed. The U.S. is concerned that this collaboration not only aids Russia's war effort in Ukraine but also strengthens Iran's military capabilities and potentially provides revenue to its economy. Officials say that Russia has already acquired ballistic missile launchers and missiles from North Korea. Moscow's cooperation with Iran and North Korea marks a shift in its strategic orientation away from past cooperation with Western powers in trying to reign in Tehran and Pyongyang’s capabilities. These developments notably come amid continued uncertainty about the approval in the U.S. Congress of future military aid for Ukraine. Wall Street Journal
Putin signs decree on giving Russian citizenship to foreign fighters. Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree allowing foreign nationals who join the Russian Armed Forces during the ongoing invasion of Ukraine to apply for Russian citizenship. The decree also grants the same right to the relatives of foreign fighters, including their children, and to those who are dismissed from the army for various reasons, such as health issues or the end of their contract. This move is part of Russia's efforts to attract foreign recruits to fight in Ukraine while trying to suppress anti-mobilization sentiments domestically. The UK's Defense Ministry reported that Russia has been actively recruiting foreigners and migrant workers to avoid announcing another mobilization drive before the upcoming presidential elections in March 2024. This development raises concerns about the potential for a larger conflict in Ukraine in the near future. Kyiv Independent
Polish farmers to resume blockade of Ukraine border crossing. Polish farmers are set to resume their blockade of the Medyka border crossing with Ukraine as of Thursday, following a suspension of their protest during the holidays. The protest aims to secure government subsidies for corn and prevent tax hikes. Polish truck drivers have also been blocking border crossings with Ukraine since November, demanding the reinstatement of a reciprocal system within the European Union that requires Ukrainian companies to obtain permits to operate in the bloc. While Agriculture Minister Czeslaw Siekierski provided a note promising to meet the farmers' demands, the prime minister's signed declaration was missing, leading to the resumption of protests. Prime Minister Donald Tusk expressed his desire to end the truckers' protest, emphasizing the need for unity amid Russia's increasing actions. Reuters
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
The Americas
U.S. again renews protection for former Secretary of State Pompeo, top aide over Iran threats. The Biden administration renewed taxpayer-funded protection for former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Trump administration Iran envoy Brian Hook, citing “serious and credible” threats against them from Iran. It is the 13th extension of the protection for Pompeo and the 16th for Hook. Pompeo and Hook were key figures in the U.S. "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran following former President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. The AP reported in March 2022 that the State Department was paying over $2 million per month to provide 24-hour security to Pompeo and Hook, but did not specify costs for the latest extension of their protection. Associated Press
Bombardier wins army spy plane contract. The U.S. Army has awarded Bombardier Defense a contract to provide at least one Global 6500 aircraft as a prototype airframe for the High Accuracy Detection and Exploitation System (HADES), a new spy plane program. The contract, awarded on December 12, 2023, includes an option for two additional aircraft over a three-year period, with the first aircraft scheduled for delivery on October 1, 2024. HADES will be the Army's first intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) aircraft to use a large-cabin business jet with advanced deep-sensing capabilities, offering increased range, speed, endurance, and aerial ISR depth. The program is part of the Army's efforts to modernize its reconnaissance and electronic warfare capabilities to better prepare for potential large-scale conflicts. HADES will operate at higher altitudes than legacy turboprop platforms, allowing for improved deep sensing, a critical capability for the Army's future operational needs. Defense News
U.S. official resigns over Biden’s Israel policy. U.S. Department of Education Office of Planning, Evaluation and Policy Development Special Assistant Tariq Habash resigned on Wednesday over President Joe Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza, saying the administration has turned “a blind eye to the atrocities” committed by Israel against Palestinian civilians. Habash is a Palestinian-American, appointed to the position because of his expertise on student debt. Also yesterday, 17 staffers with the Biden presidential campaign issued an anonymous letter saying campaign volunteers have “quit in droves” and warning that Biden could lose voters over the issue. Reuters
Mexico authorities rescue 31 migrants abducted near border with U.S. Mexican officials said on Wednesday that all 31 migrants kidnapped near the U.S. border on Saturday have been rescued. The migrants came from Venezuela, Honduras, Ecuador and Colombia as well as other parts of Mexico. The episode highlights a growing kidnapping crisis in northern Mexico amid a spike in migration to the U.S. The abduction occurred in the state of Tamaulipas, where kidnapping migrants for ransom has become a steady revenue stream for criminal groups including the Gulf Cartel and the Northeast Cartel. Washington Office on Latin America Director Stephanie Brewer called for an end to migration policies that create a bottleneck at the border, making them easy targets for criminal groups. New York Times
House Republicans visit US-Mexico border. House Republicans visited the US-Mexico border in Texas to criticize what they see as the Biden administration's failure to address the record flow of migrants. Speaker Mike Johnson labeled the situation an "unmitigated disaster" and insisted that any border deal must be based on H.R. 2, a bill passed by the Republican-controlled House that would revive Trump-era policies, including continuing border wall construction and making it difficult for most migrants to qualify for asylum. Senate negotiators are working on a bipartisan agreement to reform US border policies, but the political stakes are high, with control of the House, Senate, and presidency up for grabs in the upcoming elections. President Biden dispatched top officials to talks in Mexico City as the number of border apprehensions reached unprecedented levels. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called on House Republicans to work in a bipartisan manner to address the issue. Wall Street Journal
Asia and Oceania
China’s unsafe interceptions of U.S. military aircraft have lessened. U.S. defense officials say that unsafe interceptions of US military aircraft by Chinese forces have declined. After a spike in incidents deemed dangerous in October, particularly an incident where a Chinese fighter jet came within 10 feet of a US B-52 bomber, there have been no major incidents reported. The last unsafe interception occurred on October 24. This reduction in incidents comes after President Joe Biden’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in November and a subsequent call between the top US and Chinese generals in December that emphasized the importance of open communication. However, concerns about China's military expansion and assertiveness persist, including its nuclear weapon buildup, continued pressure on Taiwan, and maritime tensions with the Philippines in the South China Sea. CNN
China’s defense purge center of Xi’s military reforms. China's President Xi Jinping has overseen a series of abrupt removals of senior military officials, amounting to at least 15 in the past six months. These oustings have not been publicly explained by Beijing but coincide with reports of corruption investigations within the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The latest round of removals includes nine military figures, including five linked to the missile force that Xi revamped in 2015. This situation raises questions about the PLA's leadership and the reliability of its high-end systems. China's military has been a key focus of Xi's efforts to modernize the country's armed forces, but corruption scandals could hamper these ambitions and impact China's geopolitical strategies, such as the Taiwan issue. Bloomberg
China starts military drills in South China Sea. China’s military says it is conducting routine naval and air drills in the South China Sea from Wednesday to Thursday. China’s Southern Theater Command said its troops in the area will be on high alert at all times and will seek to deter activities that disrupt the region and create “hot spots.” The drills come as the U.S. and the Philippines started two-day joint patrols in the South China Sea on Wednesday. Tensions are high between Manila and Beijing over territorial disputes in the South China Sea. ReutersBloomberg South China Morning Post
Taiwan to publish analysis of China's alleged election interference after election. Taiwanese foreign minister Joseph Wu said that Taiwan is documenting its experiences with China's alleged attempts to interfere in the island’s upcoming elections on January 13 and that it will release analysis on it after the vote. The Taiwanese government has pointed to military and economic pressure, as well as Chinese-subsidized trips for local officials, as evidence of Beijing's interference. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has accused China of trying to influence the election outcome. China's Taiwan Affairs Office dismisses Taiwan's elections as an "internal Chinese matter." Wu stated that Taiwan is taking measures to counter China's interference and is urging the international community to pay attention to China's efforts to undermine Taiwan's democracy through political and economic influence, disinformation campaigns, and cyberattacks. Reuters
ANALYSIS - China’s recent military appointments signal territorial ambitions. Chinese President Xi Jinping's appointment of Admiral Dong Jun as China's defense minister, marking the first time a naval officer has held this position, indicates a clear naval focus for Xi to project power in China’s immediate periphery, according to analysts. Dong's extensive experience in naval and joint commands, particularly in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, aligns with Xi's assertive territorial claims in the region with bolstered naval capabilities. Xi's recent appointment of Admiral Hu Zhongming as overall commander of the People’s Liberation Army Navy also reflects China's emphasis on enhancing its submarine capabilities. Hu, a career submarine officer, is expected to address China's submarine deficiencies compared to the U.S. Navy. Analysts believe Hu's experience and focus on risk management and training improvement will contribute to elevating China's strategic submarine capabilities. The appointments come amid heightened tensions ahead of Taiwan’s election and disputes with the Philippines in the South China Sea. Also, while the appointments suggest loyalty to Xi, recent dismissals within the military hierarchy, particularly from the PLA Rocket Force, signal Xi's ongoing anti-corruption efforts and potential continued uncertainty in China’s military leadership. CNN
China protests to Myanmar after stray artillery shells injure five. China has lodged a protest with Myanmar after stray artillery shells fired in clashes between Myanmar's military junta and rebel groups landed in the town of Nansan in southwestern China, injuring five people. China strongly deplored the injuries caused by the shelling and has urged all parties to cease fire and prevent such incidents. The conflict in Myanmar's north has intensified since late October, prompting China to call for a ceasefire and work to facilitate dialogue between the warring parties. China has advised its citizens to avoid travel to northern Myanmar and urged those already there to seek safety or return home. ReutersWall Street Journal
China air travel rebounding, plans to increase in US flights. China's aviation regulator, the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), anticipates the international air travel market's continued recovery, with weekly flights expected to reach around 80% of pre-COVID levels by the end of 2024. Currently, there are more than 4,600 weekly international passenger flights, and CAAC foresees this number rising to 6,000 by the end of 2024. CAAC also aims to facilitate a "significant increase" in direct flights between China and the United States, in line with an agreement reached between Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping in November. The appetite for international travel in China has been slow to recover due to factors like limited flight capacity, geopolitical tensions, and a cautious economic outlook. CAAC expects 690 million passenger trips in 2024, both domestically and internationally, marking an 11% increase from 2023. Bloomberg
Thermo Fisher halts sales of DNA technology in Tibet. U.S. instrumentation maker Thermo Fisher Scientific has announced that it no longer sells certain DNA-based human-identification products in Tibet, following a similar halt in Xinjiang. The decision to cease sales of these products in Tibet was made in mid-2023 based on undisclosed factors, according to the company's statement. Thermo Fisher had pledged almost five years ago to stop sales of these items in Xinjiang due to pressure from human rights groups, who have alleged that the company’s products have been misused by Chinese police for tracking and identifying people, particularly in regions with ethnic minorities. Thermo Fisher has not specified whether these regional actions will impact its business in other parts of China. China maintains the world's largest DNA database and uses technology for population monitoring, which the U.S. government deems abusive. Thermo Fisher claims to follow US export-control laws and insists that its DNA instrumentation technology has legitimate uses in police forensic work. Some members of the US Congress and institutional investors have urged Thermo Fisher to stop sales of such equipment in China, citing concerns about human rights abuses. Wall Street Journal
Chinese firm challenges US law on Uygur forced labor. Chinese laser printer manufacturer Ninestar, along with its seven subsidiaries, is suing the US government in the US Court of International Trade over their blacklisting under the Uygur Forced Labor Protection Act (UFLPA). The UFLPA aims to block goods made in Xinjiang from entering the US. Once blacklisted, companies cannot export any products to the US without proving to federal authorities that no forced labor was involved in their supply chains. Ninestar alleges that the Forced Labor Enforcement Task Force acted arbitrarily and capriciously and violated the US Administrative Procedures Act. The case raises questions about the burden of proof and evidence reliability in these blacklistings, which are part of a broader US effort to restrict Chinese access to supply chains and technology. South China Morning Post
South Korea, US troops continue drills near border with North. South Korean and U.S. troops conducted joint combat firing drills near the border with North Korea, involving heavy weapons. The South Korean Army said the exercise aimed to test and enhance combat readiness against potential enemy aggression. The drills started on December 29 and concluded on Thursday. They involved more than 110 large combat weapons, including South Korean army tanks, anti-aircraft artillery, and combat earthmovers, supported by U.S. military attack aircraft and armored fighting vehicles. North Korea criticized the drills as "reckless war maneuvers" and warned of the highest risk of conflict in 2024. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un likewise expressed displeasure over Washington's deployment of large weapons and vowed to increase the North's nuclear arsenal. In a separate move, South Korea's navy conducted live firing drills and anti-submarine maneuvers in the waters in the east, west, and south involving destroyers, frigates, and corvettes. Reuters
South Korea assesses daughter of North Korea’s Kim Jong Un is likely successor. South Korea's spy agency, the National Intelligence Service (NIS), has assessed that Kim Ju Ae, the young daughter of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, is seen as her father's likely heir apparent. The assessment is based on a comprehensive analysis of Kim Ju Ae's public activities and the state protocols provided to her. Kim Ju Ae, believed to be around 10 years old, made her first public appearance in November 2022, and since then, she has accompanied her father to various public events, showcasing her rising political standing. The NIS's assessment contrasts with earlier statements suggesting it was premature to view Kim Ju Ae as the heir, emphasizing the Confucianism-influenced, male-nominated power structure in North Korea. The NIS acknowledged that Kim Jong Un is still relatively young, has no major health issues, and has at least one other child, so they consider all possibilities regarding the North's power succession process. Some analysts have expressed uncertainty about Kim Ju Ae's future leadership, citing the lack of political achievements and highlighting that the succession process is unpredictable. Associated Press
North Korea potentially moving to redefine South as separate enemy state. North Korea is reportedly altering its approach to handling relations with South Korea, signaling a shift that could see North Korea treat the South as a separate enemy state. This break from decades-long policy might involve the North Korean foreign ministry taking over relations with the South and could potentially offer a justification for the use of nuclear weapons against Seoul in a future conflict. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, in remarks to a year-end party meeting, asserted that peaceful reunification is impossible and ordered a "decisive policy change" in relations with the "enemy." Some analysts suggest that abandoning the concept of peaceful unification and redefining South Korea as a hostile enemy country may eliminate the contradiction of using nuclear weapons against the same people. However, the extent of organizational changes is unclear, and some observers argue that North Korea's declarations may merely reflect the current reality of deep divisions and disparities between the two countries. Reuters
Myanmar releasing over 9,600 prisoners on humanitarian grounds. Myanmar's military government announced the release of 9,652 prisoners, including 114 foreigners, in an amnesty marking the country's independence day. The foreigners will be deported. The move is aimed at maintaining relations with other countries and was made on humanitarian grounds. The release does not include Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, who remains imprisoned, facing multiple sentences totaling 27 years on charges including incitement, election fraud, and corruption. She denies all charges, and the military maintains that she has received due process by an independent court. Myanmar traditionally releases some prisoners on its independence day to commemorate the country's freedom from British rule. Myanmar has been in turmoil since the military seized power in February 2021, leading to a crackdown on protests and a reversal of democracy. ReutersAssociated Press Al Jazeera France 24
Indonesia delays purchase of used Mirage fighter jets. Indonesia has delayed its plan to purchase 12 Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets from Qatar due to financial constraints, according to a spokesperson for the defense minister. The decision was made by the defense and finance ministries, as Indonesia's current fiscal capacity cannot support such a purchase. Instead, the military will focus on retrofitting its existing Sukhoi and F16 aircraft. Indonesia had previously signed a deal with a unit of Czech defense company Czechoslovak Group (CSG) in January 2023 for the Mirage jets, valued at 733 million euros ($801.68 million). The secondhand jets were intended to bridge the gap while Indonesia waits for the delivery of Rafale fighter jets it purchased in 2022. The delay has sparked criticism as the Mirage jets are considered old. President Joko Widodo had approved a 20% increase in defense spending to upgrade military hardware, including modernizing the aging fleet. Reuters
Taliban arrest women for ‘bad hijab’ in first confirmed dress code crackdown since takeover. The Taliban have confirmed the arrest of women in Kabul for wearing "bad hijab," marking the first official confirmation of a crackdown on women who do not follow the dress code imposed by the Taliban since their return to power in 2021. The Taliban issued a decree in May 2022 calling for women to only show their eyes and recommending the head-to-toe burqa. The arrests have sparked concerns as Afghan women are already facing bans on education, employment, and access to public spaces. The Vice and Virtue Ministry did not specify the number of women arrested or the criteria for "bad hijab." The recent arrests come after the UN Security Council called for a special envoy to engage with the Taliban, particularly on gender and human rights, which the Taliban criticized. The U.S. expressed concerns about the Taliban's "repressive edicts" and its unwillingness to foster inclusive governance. Associated Press
Europe
Belgium minister warns of long term security threat from Israel-Hamas war. Belgium’s Interior Minister Annelies Verlinden warned that the Israel-Hamas war has created a long-term threat for European security. Her warning comes as several European countries, including Belgium, have raised their security threat level after lone terror attacks following the start of the Israel-Hamas war. Belgium specifically has deployed additional police to certain areas in response, including the Jewish neighborhood in Antwerp, the country’s second largest city. In an interview with Politico, Verlinden said it is hard to determine when the threat level will be lowered again and that she expects the increased police presence “will go on for a while.” She added that even after any ceasefire in Gaza, there is “flammability” that will last amongst both Jewish and Palestinian communities. Politico
European NATO members to buy up to 1,000 Patriot missiles. NATO’s Support and Procurement Agency said it is supporting several member countries, including Germany, the Netherlands, Romania, and Spain, to buy up to 1,000 Patriot missiles. The $5.5 billion contract will increase European production of the missiles and bolster allies’ stockpiles, which could free them up to help Ukraine more. The agency awarded a production and delivery contract to COMLOG, a joint venture between Raytheon and Germany’s MBDA. The contract will support the establishment of a Patriot missile production facility in Germany. Associated PressDefense News Reuters NATO
French far right criticizes new report on Russian interference. France's far-right National Rally has dismissed a Washington Post investigation into Russian interference in French democracy as part of a "cabal" against the party. The report revealed Moscow's efforts to promote "political discord" in France and undermine support for Ukraine. National Rally MP and spokesperson Laurent Jacobelli criticized the report, claiming it lacked sufficient sources and unfairly linked Russian troll farms to the party. The investigation revealed that Kremlin strategists aimed to stress the alleged negative consequences of sanctions against Russia on the French economy to unnamed political figures. National Rally's presidential candidate, Marine Le Pen, has previously criticized sanctions and called for a peace conference in Ukraine. Last June, a French National Assembly investigatory committee highlighted ideological ties between the National Rally and Russia's leadership. The party is currently projected to lead in the 2024 European Parliament election in France. Politico
Middle East and North Africa
Four Iran-backed militia fighters killed in Baghdad drone strike by U.S. The U.S. military conducted a retaliatory drone strike in Baghdad, killing a militia leader accused of attacking U.S. personnel. Iraqi police sources reported that a drone fired at least two rockets at an Iraqi militia group's facility in eastern Baghdad, resulting in casualties, including the militia leader. The U.S. military has faced over 100 attacks in Iraq and Syria since the Israel-Hamas conflict began in October, primarily involving rockets and drones. The United States has deployed troops in Iraq and Syria to prevent the resurgence of Islamic State militants. The Iraqi government holds the international coalition forces responsible for the attack and describes the targeted militia group as an Iraqi force operating with government authorization. Iran-aligned groups in Iraq and Syria oppose Israel's campaign in Gaza and partly blame the U.S. Prime Minister Al-Sudani has limited control over some Iran-backed factions in his governing coalition. Iraqi militia commanders threatened retaliation against the U.S. for the strike. ReutersAl Jazeera
Africa
U.S. Seeks Drone Bases in Coastal West Africa to Stem Islamist Advance. The U.S. is seeking to base military drones along the West African coast to counter the spread of al Qaeda and Islamic State in the region. Preliminary talks are being held to allow American unarmed reconnaissance drones to use airfields in Ghana, Ivory Coast, and Benin. These coastal countries, along with Togo, are facing threats from Islamist militants moving south from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. This move represents a shift in the U.S. strategy as it retrenches from the Sahel region, where it had been supporting French and local efforts to combat Islamist insurgents. The drones would be used for aerial surveillance and providing tactical advice to local troops in the coastal states, indicating concerns about the situation in Mali and Burkina Faso, and the reliability of Niger as an ally. Wall Street Journal
Sierra Leone Charges Ex-President Koroma With Treason Over Foiled Coup. Sierra Leone's former President Ernest Bai Koroma has been charged with four offenses, including treason, in connection with his alleged involvement in a failed military coup attempt in November. The charges come amid rising tensions in the country following a disputed election in which President Julius Maada Bio was re-elected for a second term in June 2023. The election result was rejected by the main opposition candidate and questioned by international partners. In November, gunmen attacked military barracks and a prison, leading to the release of inmates and several deaths. The government later claimed it was a foiled coup led by Koroma's bodyguards. Koroma's lawyer has called the charges a "political vendetta," and he has been granted bail, with the case adjourned until January 17. Al Jazeera
Ethiopia considering Somaliland recognition under sea access deal. Ethiopia said on Wednesday that its deal with Somaliland for sea access enables it to make an “in-depth assessment” of whether to recognize the breakaway region of Somalia. The deal will permit Ethiopia to lease a stretch of Somaliland’s coastline to establish a naval base and conduct commercial maritime services on the Gulf of Aden. Somaliland would get a stake in Ethiopian Airlines in exchange. Ethiopia maintains that the deal is a way for it to secure access to the sea through peaceful means and denies that it is transgressing any laws. Somalia has criticized the deal as an unlawful encroachment on its sovereignty and violation of international norms and standards. The East African bloc Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) has likewise expressed concern about the deal’s “potential implications for regional stability.” The African Union (AU) and the U.S. have also called on Ethiopia and Somalia to de-escalate tensions over the deal, with the AU urging them to respect each other’s territorial integrity and the U.S. calling on them to engage in dialogue. BloombergBloomberg
CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
Global space race to accelerate in 2024 with Japan, China, India efforts. China, India, and Japan are planning to increase their space activities in 2024, following another year of SpaceX’s leadership in the sector. Chinese startup LandSpace Technology plans to launch reusable rockets using methane as fuel by 2025, following a model similar to SpaceX. India aims to conduct flight tests for crewed spaceflight in 2025 and has outlined plans for a space station by 2035 and a moon landing by 2040. Japan, seeking to become the fifth nation to land on the lunar surface, will attempt a precision landing with the Smart Lander for Investigating the Moon (SLIM) on January 20. The SLIM's capabilities will inform future lunar missions, including a joint India-Japan exploration for water resources in 2025 and the development of a pressurized rover by Toyota and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries also seeks to launch the H3 next-generation rocket on February 15, aiming to compete with SpaceX’s Falcon 9. Nikkei Asia
French township hit by ‘large-scale’ cyberattack, all local services down. Pays Fouesnantais, a coastal township in Brittany, France, has been hit by a "large-scale" cyberattack. The attack has crippled all community services, except the passport and national identity card service, which is centrally administered by the French government. All of the township’s IT services have been rendered inoperable. Authorities are investigating the attack and assessing damage. This incident follows a series of cyberattacks on various French organizations in recent weeks. The Record
Plagues, Cyborgs, and Supersoldiers: The Human Domain of War. RAND is out with a report that explores the evolving landscape of biotechnology in warfare, envisioning a future where advanced machines are controlled by human thoughts, and genomic enhancements create enhanced warfighters. The authors highlight the potential use of biotechnology by both state and nonstate actors in warfare, emphasizing the importance of addressing the challenges posed by person-to-person transmissible bioweapons, the Internet of Bodies (IoB) technology, and genomic surveillance. The report recommends revising the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) to include strong protections, scrutinizing adversary biotechnology advancements, resisting anti-vaccine populism, enhancing information security of IoB devices, and allocating funding for risk management in genomic surveillance. Additionally, the report suggests that the Department of Defense (DoD) should develop clear guidance on integrating biological warfighting capabilities, establish warfighting conventions for IoB devices, and explore genomic surveillance for military personnel improvements. RAND
Cyber Executive Who Spoke to FBI Due to be extradited to Russia. Russia has successfully secured the extradition of Nikita Kislitsin, an executive from a Russian cybersecurity firm, from Kazakhstan. Kislitsin faces hacking and extortion charges dating back to 2022 in Russia. His case gained attention because he was accused of collaborating with individuals linked to the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) to sell stolen usernames and passwords from Formspring in 2012. Kislitsin had previously worked for cybersecurity firm Group-IB before it sold part of its business, resulting in the creation of F.A.C.C.T., where Kislitsin was employed at the time of his arrest. However, returning to Russia does not guarantee a favorable outcome for accused hackers, as demonstrated by the case of Ilya Sachkov, Kislitsin's former boss at Group-IB, who was sentenced to 14 years in a Russian penal colony on charges of treason for allegedly providing intelligence about state-sponsored Russian hackers to American investigators. Bloomberg
U.S. to award $162 million to Microchip Technology to boost legacy semiconductor production. The US Commerce Department is set to award $162 million to Microchip Technology Inc. to help the company triple its domestic output of older-generation semiconductors used in various applications. Microchip Technology is among the major suppliers to the U.S. defense industrial base, and the funding it will receive will support the production of microcontrollers, crucial components for military and space programs. The award includes $72 million for a project in Gresham, Oregon, and $90 million for an $880 million expansion in Colorado Springs, Colorado. The funds are part of a federal funding process tied to domestic production milestones, with final terms pending successful environmental permits. The award is part of the 2022 Chips Act, which allocated $39 billion in grants and $75 billion in loans and loan guarantees to boost chip production in the U.S. At least $2 billion from the fund will support the production of legacy chips, less advanced semiconductors essential to the global economy. The move comes as the Biden administration focuses on mature chip models amid China's aggressive push into the semiconductor industry. Bloomberg
Microsoft adding AI key to Windows keyboards. Microsoft is introducing a new Copilot key on Windows keyboards, the first change to the layout since 1994, showcasing the company's commitment to artificial intelligence (AI). The Copilot key, located to the right of the space bar, activates the AI Copilot service, allowing users to create images, write emails, and summarize text with the help of AI. Microsoft envisions 2024 as the "year of the AI PC," integrating AI seamlessly into Windows, hardware, and silicon. The Copilot button will be showcased on Windows 11 devices at CES, and over time, it will become a required feature. Microsoft's AI efforts leverage GPT-4 technology from OpenAI, in which the company has invested $13 billion. Bloomberg
The data cutoff for this product was 8:00 a.m. E.T.
Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Katharine Campbell, Leighton Durham, and Ryan Simons contributed to this report.
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