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10:00 AM ET, Thursday, December 21, 2023

Daily national security briefings aren’t just for the president anymore. The Cipher Brief uses AI partnered with human analysis and expert perspective to keep you up-to-date on national security news from around the world. 

Here’s what’s happening now:

THE TOP STORIES

Blinken rebukes other countries for not demanding Hamas surrender.  Secretary of State Antony Blinken criticized nations for not demanding Hamas surrender in the Israel-Gaza conflict. While many countries seek an end to the conflict, Blinken highlighted the absence of calls for Hamas to stop using civilians as shields and surrender, emphasizing that the war in Gaza would swiftly end if these actions were taken.  Regarding Israel, Blinken urged a shift to more targeted operations to reduce harm to Gaza's civilians.  His remarks during a press briefing at the State Department coincided with U.N. Security Council negotiations on a resolution for a ceasefire and increased humanitarian aid in Gaza.  The Biden administration is reportedly hesitant to endorse any potential rebuke of Israel.  The conflict has resulted in a significant death toll and raised concerns about civilian casualties in the region.  CNN 

E.U. commits to supporting multinational Red Sea naval force.  The European Union announced on Wednesday that member countries will contribute to Operation Prosperity Guardian, the U.S.-led operation to protect commercial shipping in the Red Sea from attacks by Houthi rebels.  The endorsement makes it easier for E.U. members to join the initiative.  Italy is sending a warship, and France has expressed interest but has not yet committed to participating. Other member countries were waiting for the decision by the EU’s Political and Security Committee’s approval.  Politico 

China’s secret space plane emits strong signal to ground when over North America.  Amateur astronomer Scott Tilley, who has been tracking China’s space plane since it entered Earth’s orbit last week, says the plane could be sending signals to a hidden ground station or a ship near the west coast of Canada. Tilley said in an email to The South China Morning Post that strong emissions were detected while the uncrewed plane was flying over British Columbia. Separately, Tilley and a team in Switzerland that specializes in optical-band space surveillance reported earlier that the space plane has released six unidentified objects into Earth orbit since its launch from the Gobi Desert last Thursday.  This is the space plane’s third mission since its inaugural flight in 2020. The plane also reportedly released mysterious objects into orbit during the last two missions. The U.S. counterpart to China’s space plane, the X-37B, is scheduled for launch aboard a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket from the Kennedy Space Center on December 28.  South China Morning Post 

Beijing warns Philippines to ‘act with caution’ in South China Sea dispute.  Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned the Philippines to "act with caution" and "return to the right path" in managing maritime disputes in the South China Sea.  His warning came in a call with his Philippine counterpart Enrique Manalo on Wednesday.  The call followed months of rising tensions in the region.  The Philippines has accused China's coast guard of intentional collisions and China has accused the Philippines of trespassing.  Wang emphasized that China-Philippines relations were at a crossroads, urging caution and dialogue.  The Chinese government’s readout of the call said that Beijing and Manila have agreed to meet under the bilateral consultation mechanism to discuss South China Sea issues “as soon as possible.”  Tensions in the waterway coincide with the Philippines' efforts to boost military ties with the U.S and Japan to counter China.  South China Morning Post Reuters Deutsche Welle 

North Korea's Kim threatens ‘nuclear attack’ and praises troops for ICBM test.  North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un warned that Pyongyang will not hesitate to launch a “nuclear attack” if it is provoked by an enemy’s nuclear weapons.  Kim reportedly made the remark when he met soldiers working for the North Korean military’s missile bureau to congratulate them on the country’s recent intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test.  Kim reportedly described the test as a demonstration of North Korea’s “offensive counteraction mode” and nuclear strategy and called for a further strengthening of the country’s military.  The report on Kim’s remarks came after the U.S., South Korea, and Japan issued a joint statement condemning North Korea’s recent ballistic missile launches and urging Pyongyang to engage in “substantive dialogue without preconditions.”  Reuters Associated Press

ISRAEL HAMAS WAR

Hamas rejects Israeli offer for pause in fighting.  White House spokesman John Kirby said on Wednesday that “very serious” negotiations continue over a Gaza ceasefire and the release of more Israeli hostages, but Hamas has rejected an Israeli offer for a one-week pause in the fighting in exchange for the release of 40 hostages.  The militant group reportedly will not accept anything less than an end to Israel’s offensive and an increase in the flow of humanitarian aid in Gaza.  Egyptian officials said, however, that Hamas’s rejection of Israel’s offer does not mean the end of negotiations and is instead an attempt to extract more concessions. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated that there will not be a permanent ceasefire until Hamas is defeated, all hostages are freed, and Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel. Israel’s latest offer came as its forces stepped up operations in the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis, where the Hamas military leadership is believed to be hiding.  Reuters Wall Street Journal Times of Israel 

Israel military says Hamas senior leadership used Gaza City tunnel network.  The Israeli military released footage of a tunnel network in Gaza City that it said provided passage for Hamas throughout Gaza. The military said it found tunnel shafts in residences and offices of senior Hamas leadership and that Hamas commanders used the network to coordinate the October 7 attacks on Israel.  Wall Street Journal 

Gaza aid corridor from Cyprus being finalized.  Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen and Cypriot Foreign Minister Constantinos Kombos say their countries are finalizing details of an initiative to create a maritime aid corridor to Gaza from Cyprus. Kombos said the Cyprus plan involves setting up a logistical hub for the provision of a sustained high volume of humanitarian assistance to civilians throughout Gaza. Cohen said the two countries aim to reach agreement on the details as soon as possible.  Bloomberg 

Saudi Arabia reluctant to derail regional diplomacy over U.S. Red Sea naval taskforce.  Saudi Arabia has notably abstained from the US-led naval coalition to protect Red Sea shipping from Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis. The absence is attributed to concerns that participation could hinder Riyadh’s long-term goal of withdrawing from the conflict in Yemen and avoiding tensions with Iran.  Saudi Arabia and the UAE are focused on reshaping regional policy through renewed diplomacy, seeking new alliances and resolving disputes. They have embraced detente agreements, including a Chinese-mediated one between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The ongoing war in Gaza threatens these diplomatic efforts, straining Emirati-Israeli ties and impacting Saudi-Israeli normalization talks. Saudi Arabia’s reluctance to join the naval coalition balances regional strategy with the need for Red Sea security and reliance on the U.S. security umbrella.  Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukrainian spies vow to intensify attacks into Russian occupied territory in 2024. Major General Vasyl Malyuk, the head of Ukraine's SBU security service, says that Ukrainian spies plan to intensify intelligence operations and conduct sabotage strikes deep in Russian-controlled territory in 2024. Malyuk emphasized that specific plans would remain undisclosed to shock the enemy, but logistics targets and military assets in occupied Ukrainian territory, particularly in Crimea and the Black Sea, would be a focus.  As part of this, Malyuk highlighted the Sea Baby drone, a pet project of his which has been used to target the Black Sea Fleet of Russia in Crimea. The drone carries 850 kilograms of explosives and operates in stormy conditions.  Malyuk stated that these operations aim to complicate Russia's war-fighting capabilities and bring Ukraine closer to victory.  While emphasizing adherence to international law in target selection, Malyuk warned Russia to expect surprises, promising that Ukraine would find the enemy everywhere, including in Russia. The SBU's operations reportedly boost Ukrainian morale and hinder Russia's war efforts, specifically by targeting military facilities and logistical corridors for supplying weapons in Russia. Malyuk's statements reflect Ukraine's commitment to using all possible methods to free its territory from occupiers.  Politico

Ukraine downs 34 out of 35 Russian drones in attack.  Ukraine’s air force said on Thursday that it shot down 34 of 35 Russian drones launched in a major attack over 12 regions overnight. The air force said the Iranian-made Shahed drones were launched in several waves, prompting air alerts for several hours. There were no immediate reports of casualties or major damage.  Reuters

Kremlin says it does not see Ukraine peace talks soon.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday that Russia sees no current reason to hold negotiations to end its war in Ukraine, asserting that the idea of talks is “not relevant” as there are “no grounds” for a dialogue.  He also suggested that the U.K. had destroyed the chances of a peace deal in 2022 by urging Kyiv to refuse a draft deal soon after Russia had invaded Ukraine.  Ukrainian and Western officials have said that Russia could end the war by withdrawing all forces from Ukrainian territory.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also said that it would be “impossible” to hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin after Russia claimed to annex areas of Ukraine.  Putin continues to say Russia will pursue its war aims in Ukraine of so-called demilitarization of Ukraine and preventing it from joining NATO.  Bloomberg Reuters 

U.S. to strengthen enforcement of Russia oil price cap.  A senior Treasury Department official said on Wednesday that the U.S. will strengthen enforcement of the $60 per barrel price cap on Russian oil exports. The enforcement effort will include an emphasis on compliance by service providers in G-7 countries that continue to transport Russian oil.  Bloomberg 

​​ANALYSIS: China cashes in on relationship with Russia amid Ukraine war.  China is experiencing significant economic gains from its closer ties with Russia, driven in part by Russia's shift toward China for purchases in the wake of the Ukraine invasion. Trade between the two countries surpassed $200 billion in the first 11 months of this year, far exceeding earlier expectations. China has become a substitute supplier for Russia, filling critical import needs, particularly after many European and American companies shunned Russia following the invasion. Chinese exports to Russia increased by 69 percent in the first 11 months of this year, while the two nations have solidified their economic relationship through infrastructure projects such as pipelines and bridges. China's vehicle manufacturers, in particular, have benefited, with Chinese carmakers capturing 55 percent of the Russian market, surpassing German competitors. The embrace of Russia has also provided China's construction industry with opportunities as Chinese workers build infrastructure along the border and for energy deals, including pipeline projects.  New York Times

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

The Americas

U.S. Army preparing to reduce Black Hawk helicopter fleet.  The U.S. Army is preparing to reduce its fleet of UH-60 Black Hawk utility helicopters by nearly 8% as it readies to field a replacement.  Army Aviation Center of Excellence commander Maj. Gen. Mac McCurry said that the service intends to cut around 157 Black Hawks, 7.5% of its total utility fleet, from its active-duty component in the hope of making space in the budget for the Future Long-Range Assault Aircraft (FLRAA) which will begin fielding in the early 2030s. Last year, the army selected the Textron-Bell’s V-280 Valor tiltrotor aircraft to replace the 4 decade old Sikorsky-manufactured UH-60.  McCurry said that the divested Black Hawks, each worth about $2 million, will be sold either through an exchange and sales program or through Foreign Military Sales transactions. It is not yet known when the helicopters will be taken out of the fleet, but the army only plans on removing the oldest aircraft, such as Lima models and some Alphas. The army also seeks to upgrade its Mike-model Black Hawks and replace the Boeing-built AH-64 Apache attack helicopter with the Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft.  Upgraded Black Hawks are expected to receive new engines through the Improved Turbine Engine Program. Defense News

U.S. Army to field new individual rifle.  The U.S. Army said that it is currently testing its newest rifle and plans to put it in the field in 2024. The rifle, known as the XM7 and XM250, has advanced optics and the XM157 fire control. The rifle was delivered to a platoon in the 101st Airborne Division and a squad from the 75th Ranger Regiment for testing. The XM7 aims to replace the M4 for infantry, scouts, combat engineers, and special operations forces. The XM250 aims to replace the M249 Squad Automatic Weapon for the same units. The “X” will be dropped from the weapons’ name once entering the field. Both weapon systems fire the recently developed 6.8mm cartridge which can better defeat body armor and has increased lethality at longer ranges. The increased energy of the round also allows for soldiers to penetrate barriers, such as cinder blocks, that could not be penetrated by 5.56mm rounds.  Army Times

Nippon's US Steel buy needs scrutiny, says Biden campaign adviser Deese.  Brian Deese, a top adviser with President Biden’s re-election campaign and former head of the White House Economic Council, said on Wednesday that Nippon Steel’s proposed $14.9 billion purchase of U.S. Steel is “concerning” and that the Biden administration should examine it. Several Republican and Democrat senators also have raised questions over national security and why the two companies did not consult with the main union representing U.S. Steel workers before the announcement. Steel Manufacturers Association President Philip Bell said Japan is a trusted ally and that the deal does not appear to consolidate control of iron ore mining or automotive steel production under a single company. The White House has said little about the proposed purchase, saying only that there could be a regulatory review.  Reuters

Surge of violence continues in Mexico ahead of next year’s election.  Mexico is struggling to deal with widespread violence with the power of drug cartels and insecurity reportedly being major concerns.  A wave of murders has hit Mexico this month, with many victims being bystanders and young people like students.  Studies show that less than 4 percent of criminal investigations in Mexico are ever solved and around 92 percent of crimes went unreported last year.  The issue has found its way into American politics, with some Republican politicians even suggesting military action in Mexico to fight gangs and stem the flow of migrants crossing the U.S. border illegally.  Roberta Jacobson, a former U.S. ambassador to Mexico, said that a “breakdown in the ability of security services” in Mexico must “matter” to Washington, calling it a “No. 1” issue for the administration since the violence displaces people and fuels the escalating migrant crisis.  New York Times BBC

Asia and Oceania

China uses religious push to influence public opinion in Taiwan.  The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is reportedly intensifying engagement with folk religious groups in rural Taiwan to influence political opinion ahead of the island’s elections in January.  Taiwanese government documents and security officials report a surge in religious trips between China and Taiwan this year, with particular focus on the worship of Mazu, a sea goddess with millions of Taiwanese followers.  Intelligence reports say that China sees the Mazu faith as the “axis” of its religious influence operations in Taiwan.  This activity reportedly includes sponsored visits by people from China to temples in Taiwan and subsidized trips to China for Taiwanese religious groups.  The religious push focuses on rural temples and is seen as an effective way to shape public opinion in local areas in favor of political parties that back closer ties with China.  It coincides with increased Chinese military activity near Taiwan, which propaganda links to Mazu’s protection in the Taiwan Strait.  Taiwan’s government has expressed concern that this activity violates election and security laws.  Taipei has responded by increasing monitoring of religious activities with China.  Some Taiwanese religious leaders have notably declined visits to China, citing the sensitive political context ahead of the upcoming election.  Reuters

Taiwan accuses China of economic coercion over planned removal of tariff cuts.  Taiwan accused China of election interference and economic coercion on Thursday after Beijing announced the end of tariff cuts on some chemical imports ahead of Taiwan’s January elections.  China’s Finance Ministry announced that on January 1, tariff cuts would be suspended on 12 chemical products due to “discriminatory prohibitions and restrictions” Taiwan placed on Chinese goods in violation of a 2010 trade deal.  Taiwan’s Office of Trade Negotiations called the move “typical economic coercion.”  Taiwan’s government has repeatedly said Beijing is trying to interfere with upcoming elections in January through military pressure and political influence.  Reuters

South Korea, Japan resume high-level economic talks amid improved ties.  South Korea and Japan held high-level economic talks for the first time in eight years on Thursday in another sign of warming relations. South Korean Deputy Foreign Minister for Economic Affairs Kang Jae-kwon said prior to a meeting with Japanese counterpart Keiichi Ono that he hoped the meeting would contribute to improving economic relations. High-level economic talks began in 1999 but have stalled since 2016 amid historical disputes stemming from Japan’s occupation of Korea from 1910 to 1945. Amid geopolitical concerns shared by the two countries, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol made improved relations with Japan a priority when he took office last year.  Reuters

Proposal for deployment of U.S. Patriots in Palau faces pushback.  A proposal for the permanent deployment of U.S. Patriot missile defense batteries to Palau as part of efforts to counter China’s influence in the Pacific is facing opposition.  The U.S. has started work on installing an over-the-horizon radar system in Palau.  The island nation’s president, Surangel Whipps, has called for the deployment of a missile shield, such as the permanent deployment of Patriots, over concerns that the radar could make Palau a target.  Despite this, Palau’s Senate passed a resolution in late November rejecting the deployment, citing the country’s history of independence and threats to sovereignty and national security.  The issue is compounded by criticism of the U.S. Congress’s delay in approving funding programs for Palau, Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands, contributing to the narrative of critics that the U.S. is only focused on advancing its own military interests.  Such opposition has also raised questions about potential Chinese interference in Palau politics, which opposition politicians have denied.  Reuters

Europe

Netherlands to bolster North Sea surveillance capabilities.  Netherlands Defence Minister Kajsa Ollongren and State Defence Secretary Christophe van der Maat announced on Tuesday that the Dutch defense ministry seeks to spend as much as $274 million on surveillance, reconnaissance, and intelligence capabilities in the North Sea to protect underwater pipelines and cables. The Netherlands plans on purchasing satellite capacity to observe the movements of vessels and also seeks to mount radar systems, cameras, and automatic identification system trackers on offshore wind turbines and drilling platforms. The Netherlands will also buy two vessels with undersea monitoring tech, which Ollongren and Van der Maat said would help “deter potential perpetrators of sabotage and espionage.”  It is estimated that there are around 2,796 miles of pipelines and 3,728 miles of cables on the Dutch continental shelf.  The Dutch government has said this offshore infrastructure is vital to both the nation’s economy and national security.  The Netherlands has 4.7 gigawatts of installed offshore wind power, which is enough to supply around 16% of the country’s current electricity demand.  Defense News

Polish president denounces prime minister’s media overhaul.  Polish President Andrezej Duda denounced pro-European Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s new state media reforms as “anarchy,” pointing to rising tensions between Duda, an ally of the previous nationalist administration, and Tusk’s pro-E.U. administration.  On Wednesday, Tusk’s government took a public news channel off the air and dismissed state media executives, saying that the moves would help restore impartial coverage. State media outlets had been accused of becoming propaganda machines under the previous nationalist administration. Duda claimed that such a sudden move went against the country’s constitution by avoiding proper parliamentary procedures. The new government claimed that Duda himself has been involved in multiple violations of the constitution during the previous nationalist administration’s eight-year reign.  Reuters

Former Russian journalist Duntsova applies to run in 2024 election against Putin.  Former Russian TV reporter Yekaterina Duntsova has applied to run against President Vladimir Putin in Russia's presidential election next year.  She formally submitted documents to enter the race to the Central Electoral Commission on Wednesday.  Her bid comes despite the widespread belief that Putin’s victory is guaranteed. The anti-war candidate called for an end to the war in Ukraine and the release of political prisoners such as opposition leader Alexei Navalny.  Duntsova, an independent candidate, must still obtain 300,000 signatures in support of her candidacy by January 31 to run. When asked if she thought Russian officials would actually allow her to run, Duntsova emphasized that she is obeying federal law and has the right to be a candidate in the election without “anyone’s permission.”  There is currently no opposition leader to challenge Putin, who has been in power since 1999.  Duntsova acknowledged that there were reasons to be afraid to run in the election, but asserted that “fear must not win.”  Reuters Associated Press

Russia spends $12 billion to keep aviation sector in the air.  A Reuters analysis shows Russia has provided more than $12 billion in government subsidies and loans to maintain its aviation sector since Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine cut off supplies of key parts and maintenance services.  Russian airlines have reportedly kept their Western-manufactured planes flying partly by importing spare parts from third countries without the consent of the manufacturers, primarily Airbus and Boeing.  President Vladimir Putin said last week that the Russian fleet is overloaded with foreign-made planes and that Russia plans to produce more than 1,000 of its own aircraft by 2030. Reuters

Africa

Burkina Faso detains four French IT workers,  A French diplomatic source said on Wednesday that four French IT workers with diplomatic passports had been arrested in Burkina Faso’s capital of Ouagadougou.  The source said the IT workers were in Burkina Faso to do IT maintenance for the French embassy but were detained on Dec. 1 and subsequently transferred to the Ouagadougou prison on Dec. 14.  French news magazine Jeune Afrique published an article saying Burkinabe authorities arrested four agents working for the DGSE, France’s external intelligence agency.  The diplomatic source maintained that the IT workers were in Burkina Faso only for relevant IT maintenance work.  The Burkinabe government has not commented on the matter.  Reuters

Sudan’s RSF take key city in watershed moment in conflict with army.  Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) took over the key city of Wad Madani in just four days earlier this week, raising questions about the power dynamic in the civil war between the RSF and Sudan’s army.  The RSF’s capture of the city forced the withdrawal of Sudan’s army.  Around 300,000 people have also left Wad Madani in recent days and there have been reports of looting and disruption of aid distribution in the city.   Analysts attribute the army’s setbacks, both in Wad Madani and elsewhere, to historical weakness, corruption, inexperience in facing a prolonged conflict, and potential leadership issues.  Experts add that the development risks further instability and foreign interference in the region.  New York Times

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

NSA 2023 review focuses on AI developments, Section 702 reauthorization.  Cybersecurity, the risks of AI, and the reauthorization of the Section 702 surveillance legislation are featured topics in NSA’s just-released 2023 Cybersecurity Year in Review report.  Among milestones of the last year, the report highlights the creation of the AI Security Center and NSA’s role in uncovering Chinese cyber penetrations and implants in U.S. critical infrastructure.  Gen. Paul Nakasone, the soon-departing director of both NSA and the Cyber Command, pointed in an opening letter to the risks involved if Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act is not reauthorized by Congress.  Nakasone said Section 702 allows the U.S. to stay ahead of global rivals “who constantly seek to reshape the global information environment and the world order as we know it.”  He went on to note that interruptions of the authority “would have a blinding effect” on U.S. ability to detect and understand actions by hostile foreign powers.  Nakasone said that NSA’s newly created AI Security Center, which consolidated a variety of AI security entities under one roof, will allow the agency to collaborate with a host of partners inside and outside government “to ensure the United States’ enduring advantage in AI.”  Cybernews NSA

Analysis: Russia employs obscure e-commerce channels, intermediaries to evade tech sanctions.  Through a complex of loopholes and carefully executed workarounds, Russian technology vendors have managed to maintain a steady flow of sanctioned technologies to eager clients in Russia.  The New York Times cites the example of the Russian telecommunications firm, Convex, employing a little-known Russian e-commerce site, Nag, to obtain Cisco gear needed by Russian intelligence services through suppliers based in China.  The Convex operation is characteristic of Russian efforts to evade Western technology bans following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  The Times analysis says “almost no piece of commercial hardware,” from telecommunications equipment to microchips for advanced weapons systems, has proved too difficult to obtain through the network of backchannels.  Among the tactics Russia has employed are “webs of intermediaries,” shell companies, and port transshipment services in countries that have remained neutral in the Ukraine war, such as Morocco and Turkey.  Emails among Russian trade officials examined by the Times reveal flexible coordination and information-sharing on receptive ports, willingness to trade in rubles, and facilities to repair Russian-flagged ships.  Elina Ribakova, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, noted that overworked U.S. and European investigators cannot effectively track the myriad channels and cut-outs used for the illicit technology trade.  New York Times

NIST invites public comment on testing standards for generative AI systems.  The Biden administration this week extended an invitation to the “broader AI community” to engage with the AI standards team at the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST) as a first step in creating testing standards and guidance for safe development of generative AI systems. Laurie E. Locascio, NIST’s director and the under secretary of standards and technology, in making the announcement noted that “it is essential that we gather all perspectives as we work to establish a strong and unbiased scientific understanding of AI.”  Public contributions will be accepted until February 2.  Among other things, NIST is seeking ideas from AI firms and the public on how to reduce risks of AI-generated misinformation.  NIST is developing guidelines for testing, including best practices for the use of "red-teaming" in AI testing.  NIST’s announcement is in part a response to requirements included in the administration’s executive order on AI that the institute establish best practices on AI development, create guidance for evaluating AI capabilities, and develop a plan for developing global consensus standards.  Reuters FedScoop

The data cutoff for this product was 8:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell, and Leighton Durham contributed to this report.

Read deeply-experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis, and opinion in The Cipher Brief