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10:00 AM ET, Thursday, December 14, 2023

Daily national security briefings aren’t just for the president anymore. The Cipher Brief uses AI partnered with human analysis and expert perspective to keep you up-to-date on national security news from around the world. 

Here’s what’s happening now:

THE TOP STORIES

Senate Approves Compromise Defense Bill.  The Senate on Wednesday approved a new $886.3 billion defense bill, which lawmakers hope the House will pass by the end of the week.  The National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2024 authorizes $28 billion, or around 3% more, in defense funding from the previous fiscal year.  The new bill would include raises for service members, a short-term extension of Section 702 of the Foreign Surveillance Act through April 19th, and measures to strengthen the U.S.’s military position in the Indo-Pacific region, such as support for Taiwan and implementation of the AUKUS deal.  The bill would extend the current Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative through 2026 and provide an additional $300 million for the program.  The bill does not include provisions for abortions or transgender healthcare access and places a freeze on hiring for diversity and inclusion positions until an investigation of the Pentagon’s DEI programs is complete.  The bill also allows service members discharged for not receiving a COVID-19 vaccination to be reinstated, with their lapse in service labeled as a “career intermission” to allow for full retirement benefits.  CNN Politico 

Biden Administration to Delay Sale of Assault Rifles to Israel, Sources Say. Two sources told Reuters on Wednesday that the Biden administration is delaying the sale of more than 20,000 assault rifles to Israel over concerns about settler violence against Palestinian in the occupied West Bank.  The State Department notified Congress of the sale last week, but some members of Congress have reportedly asked the administration for assurances that the rifles won’t be given to Israeli settlers before the sale goes through.  A former U.S. official said that the Biden administration was working to get such an assurance from Israel.  The official also noted concerns that the rifles could be given to Israeli police units which U.S. officials also have “significant human rights concerns” about.  Since the October 7th attacks, violence by settlers against Palestinians has accelerated, contributing to scrutiny of U.S. military aid for Israel.  U.S. officials maintain there are no plans to put conditions on military aid for Israel or consider withholding it.  Reuters Washington Post

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Israeli Air Strikes Continue Across Gaza as U.S. National Security Advisor Visits Israel.  Israeli forces continued airstrikes across the Gaza Strip as White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan arrived in Israel.  Sullivan met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.  In remarks before their meeting, Gallant reiterated Israel’s goal of destroying Hamas.  He added that it will take a long time due to Hamas’s underground infrastructure in Gaza, saying it may take “several months” to eliminate the group.  His comments suggest that Israel will not back down on its military operations in Gaza despite international pressure over civilian casualties in the territory.  Sullivan said ahead of his trip that he would discuss Israel’s “timetable” on the war, and White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby added that Sullivan would urge Israeli officials to be more accurate in strikes in Gaza.  Sullivan’s trip to Israel comes after meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to discuss the Gaza conflict.  CNN New York Times

Israel Cancels Mossad Chief’s Trip to Qatar for Hostage Talks.  Israel canceled Mossad director David Barnea’s planned trip to Qatar for talks on a potential second release of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza.  The Israeli prime minister’s office and Mossad did not provide details on why the trip was canceled, though a source told CNN that Hamas has been unresponsive to attempts to restart hostage talks.  Families of some Israeli hostages expressed anger at the cancellation of the trip, saying in a statement that they are “fed up with the indifference and deadlock” on securing the release of the hostages.  CNN

Most Israelis Want Hamas Crushed Despite Gaza Casualties, UN Rebuke.  Recent polls indicate Israeli citizens believe their military should not hold back in its offensive to eliminate Hamas despite the U.N. General Assembly’s call for a ceasefire, troop casualties, and the Palestinian death toll. A poll conducted by the Israel Democracy Institute showed that after the week-long ceasefire in November, more than 75% of respondents said the offensive should continue without adjustments. One factor influencing the results may be that Israeli news media’s reporting of the war dwells less on the cost to civilians in Gaza than international media reports do. Israel Democracy Institute political scientist Tamar Hermann said that the Hamas attack on October 7 revived fears Israelis felt when Arabs launched a surprise attack in 1973 and there is a sense that “this is a threat to the very existence of Israel.”  Reuters 

Russia Seems Smug as US Diplomatically Isolated at UN for Supporting Israel.  After experiencing disapproval at the U.N. over its invasion of Ukraine, Russia appears pleased that the U.S. now is on the receiving end of international opposition to its support for Israel in its war on Hamas in Gaza. More than three-quarters of the U.N. General Assembly voted in favor of a demand for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza on Tuesday following a U.S. veto of the measure in the Security Council days earlier. Russian Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia said following the General Assembly vote that with its veto, the U.S. “essentially issued a license to kill and now bears full responsibility for each new victim” in Gaza. A senior European diplomat said of the Russian reaction to criticism of the U.S., “They are loving it.” U.N. International Crisis Group Director Richard Gowan said Russia sees the war in the Middle East as “a huge opportunity to reset their position” at the U.N. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller downplayed the vote yesterday, however, saying there is a long history of “fairly overwhelming vote counts” when it comes to U.N. resolutions involving Israel.  Reuters 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine Downs 41 out of 42 Russian Drones Launched in Overnight Attack.  The Ukrainian Air Force reported that its air defense units managed to shoot down 41 out of 42 Russian Shahed drones launched overnight on Thursday. Russian forces launched the drones from Balaklava and Chauda on the occupied Crimean Peninsula, and from Primorsko-Akhtarsk in southern Krasnodar Krai. Most of the drones were traveling towards the Odesa region.  The drone attacks injured 11 people, three of them children. Ukraine’s Air Force also said that Russian soldiers in occupied Kherson Oblast fired six S-300 anti-aircraft missiles at the regions of Mykolaiv and Kherson.  Kyiv Independent Ukrinform

Hungary’s Orban Doubles Down on Opposition to Ukraine E.U. Accession Talks.  Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban reiterated on Thursday that he believes the E.U. should not yet open talks on Ukraine’s membership in the bloc at the E.U. summit this week.  Speaking in Brussels for the summit, Orban said that “Hungarians… don’t bow to pressure,” referring to calls by every other E.U. member to start the accession talks, and that certain conditions have not yet been met to start the process.  Orban then mentioned a European Parliament election next June and said the bloc should “behave democratically” and wait for the vote, possibly signaling a months-long delay for the start of accession talks.  Budapest is also opposing adding $54 billion in financial aid for Ukraine from the E.U. budget, though officials say they would be able to set up long-term financing outside of the budget.  Orban’s opposition to the accession and aid comes as Hungary seeks the release of E.U. funds that were frozen over rule of law and corruption concerns.  Reuters

Some Russian Volunteers Joining Ukrainian Forces.  The Associated Press is out with a report that some Russian volunteers, disillusioned with Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, have fled their homeland and joined the conflict on the side of Kyiv, forming into new units and fighting for the eventual defeat of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The six-month-old Siberian Battalion is one such unit, officially a part of the Ukrainian military and made up of Russians who escaped to fight alongside Ukrainians. Most of its members are ethnic minorities from Russia’s far eastern regions. The soldiers must go through extensive security checks and lengthy questioning before being trained and sent to the front lines in eastern Ukraine, where some of the most severe fighting in the war has been seen. The Siberian Battalion, which currently has a few dozen troops, seeks to adopt 300 soldiers. Associated Press 

Patriot Units Face New Pressure Amid Ukraine, Mideast Conflicts.  Gen. Sean Gainey told the House Armed Services subcommittee on strategic forces last week that increased demand for Patriot air defense systems has mostly undone the U.S. Army’s effort over the better part of the last decade to reduce pressure on troops operating the systems. Gainey said the Army was “on a glide path to improve the dwell readiness” of Patriot units, referring to the ratio between the amount of time Patriot operators spend at home and time spent deployed. He said Patriot units are now “below the Secretary of Defense’s red line of deploy one year, return home for two years.” On a positive note, Gainey noted that force retention for Patriot defenders remains high. Army acquisition chief Doug Bush said last week that sustaining Patriot missile capacity will be challenging as the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East continue. The Army has said it plans to add an additional Patriot battalion, but Army Futures Command chief Gen. James Rainey said yesterday that won’t improve operational tempo. The Army is seeking Congressional approval of a supplemental budget request of $750 million to increase Patriot missile production capacity by 100 missiles per year, to 650. Defense News

OPINION: An Urgent Plea Against Western Inaction on Ukraine.  Victor Pinchuk, a Ukrainian businessman and philanthropist who founded the Yalta Economic and Security Forum, calls for the West to maintain aid for Ukraine.  He argues that if Ukraine does not get the help it needs to resist Russian aggression, Moscow will not hold back in “conquering” Ukraine,” which will lead to widespread destruction, the displacement of millions, destabilization throughout Eastern Europe, and empowerment of pro-Russian political parties in Europe.  Pinchuk adds that this outcome will force NATO to significantly increase defense spending aimed at deterring Russia and will increase security risks for the alliance.  He emphasizes that any “armistice” or pause in the war will only allow Russia to regroup and attack later, so Ukraine must be supported to continue fighting.  PInchuk notes that Ukraine is resilient and will fight on no matter what and that a relatively small investment — a small fraction of Western GDP for defense aid and no commitment of Western troops — will go a long way in ensuring Kyiv’s victory.  Politico 

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Multinational Threat Advisory Issued on Russian Targeting of Czech Software Vulnerability.  Cybersecurity officials from the U.S. Britain, and Poland on Wednesday reported the Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) has been building on knowledge and access gained during earlier cyber probing of a Czech software product, TeamCity, “to escalate its privileges, move laterally, deploy additional backdoors, and take other steps to ensure persistent and long-term access to the compromised network environments.”  Officials say they have notified dozens of companies in the U.S., Europe, Asia, and Australia of the persistent threat after discovering hundreds of compromised devices.  The advisory was issued by the FBI, NSA, CISA, Polish Military Counterintelligence Service, CERT Polska, and the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre.  Attacks were carried out by a hacking group within the SVR tracked as APT29, also known as CozyBear, beginning in September.  Wednesday’s cybersecurity alert warned that the SVR has been spotted “using the initial access gleaned by exploiting the TeamCity CVE.”  Researchers have not identified an organizational pattern to victims other than the common vulnerability of an “unpatched, Internet-reachable JetBrains TeamCity server.”  Targeted organizations include an energy trade association, vendors of billing, medical devices, customer care, and financial management software, and web hosting companies, tool manufacturers, and small and large IT companies.  The Record

International Law Firm Reportedly Hit by LockBit Ransomware Attack.  One of the world’s largest law firms, CMS, reportedly has been hit by a LockBit ransomware attack that has resulted in a 500GB data theft.  In a post on the LockBit dark web blog, the hackers claimed to have acquired “all confidential information in the USA” and data related to “financial and corporate crimes of clients.”  The data theft reportedly also includes personal information on CMS employees and the company’s tax and financial reports.  CMS has a staff of 6,000 lawyers working at 81 offices around the world.  Cybernews

Experts Tell House Hearing Smaller Companies at Greater Risk from AI-Enabled Threats.  Experts testifying before a cybersecurity subcommittee of the House Homeland Security Committee warned that AI-enabled attacks by malicious threat actors could swamp smaller companies that already are reeling from cybercrime threats.  The experts cited the improved efficiency of malware development that AI affords hackers along with the potential of swamping smaller organizations with disinformation.  SentinelOne executive Alex Stamos noted that while famous malware like the Stuxnet virus required large resources to develop, AI offers hackers the opportunity to create malicious software at much lower cost.  Stamos said cybercrime groups have become “professionalized” boasting capabilities previously associated with nation-state actors.  In contrast, Stamos said, small and medium-sized businesses are “not ready to play at that level.”  Stamos proposed that migration of smaller enterprises to the cloud may provide a form of “collective defense.”  Ian Swanson, the CEO of Protect AI, told the hearing that AI could be made secure by creating a “comprehensive inventory” that describes and lists the “ingredients” of the technology.  Swanson also advised that the Department of Homeland Security create a bill of materials for machine learning and extend protections to the open source software ecosystem underlying AI.  CyberScoop

Russian Crypto Exchanges Stricken by Leak of ‘Highly Sensitive’ Information.  Nine Russian crypto exchanges have suffered a server data leak that has exposed private information on as many as 500,000 customers for over two months.  The data exposed by the leak encompasses highly sensitive information such as user names, credit card numbers, and transaction details, including authentication information.  The leaked data includes 615,000 payment requests and 28,000 withdrawal requests.  The server leak was first detected in October although Cybernews reports the leak can still be accessed.  However, as researchers noted, while the server IP was operational, the entire data content has been destroyed by a malicious script.  It is not known who is responsible for the leak and the consequent destruction of the data.  Researchers pointed out that the data were managed by MongoDB, a powerful database software but that “a misconfiguration allowed unrestricted access, enabling third parties to access and expose the crypto exchange data.”  Cybernews

Research Firm Notes Sharp Drop in Overall Crypto Thefts in 2023.  A report from TRM Labs indicates that funds lost to crypto hackers will likely be cut in half as 2023 comes to a close due to improved security procedures and increased law enforcement actions.  The report notes that even in the event of sizable hacks in December, crypto losses will “finish with significantly lower totals than 2022.”  The total crypto losses of $4 billion in 2022 included a number of large thefts, such as the theft from the Ronin bridge blockchain network that amounted to a $600 million theft.  TRM executive Ari Redbord pointed out that while the sector is always “one Ronin-size hack away” from setting records, the global focus on combatting cybercrime has reduced malign activity, a development that “is critical in order for the overwhelmingly lawful ecosystem to grow.”  Attacks on crypto infrastructure, including private-key thefts that allowed hackers to access crypto servers or software to steal funds or manipulate trades, contributed to nearly 60 percent of total stolen funds in 2023, according to TRM.  Bloomberg

China’s Military Using Microsoft ‘Mixed-Reality’ Technology.  China’s CCTV posted a video clip on the social media network Weibo on Tuesday that shows a member of the Chinese air force wearing mixed-reality HoloLens 2 mixed-reality goggles made by Microsoft. In recent years, the U.S. has tightened restrictions on the sale of advanced technology and high-tech equipment to China, but Microsoft’s HoloLens 2 is available to consumers in China. According to CCTV’s post, the mixed-reality system was used to conduct a “virtual disassembly” before examination of an aircraft engine. The post said the procedure could enhance the speed, accuracy and reliability of engine replacements.  South China Morning Post 

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

Asia and Oceania

US, Taiwan Push for Taipei’s Representation at International Bodies.  The U.S. and Taiwan are stepping up efforts to include Taiwanese representation in multinational bodies. The State Department said yesterday that a meeting organized by the American Institute in Taiwan – the de facto U.S. embassy there – and the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in Washington, a meeting which included representatives from the State Department and Taiwan’s foreign ministry, featured discussion of  “near-term opportunities to support” expanded Taiwanese participation in the World Health Assembly and other international public health organizations, the International Civil Aviation Organization and other entities. Taiwan was granted observer status at the WHA from 2009 to 2016, but China and Pakistan have blocked Taiwanese participation since 2017. Sourabh Gupta, a senior fellow at the Institute for China-America Studies in Washington, said support for restoring Taiwan’s WHA observer status “came to a head” during the Covid-19 pandemic, owing to Taiwan’s success in managing the spread of the virus. Gupta said the U.S. knows China has enough support in the U.N. to block an invitation to Taiwan, but that the State Department sees some value in trying to get Western countries behind the effort.  South China Morning Post

The Americas

Ecuador Expects Deal for $200 million in U.S. Security Equipment. Ecuador’s Government and Interior Minister Monica Palencia said that Ecuador expects to close a deal with the U.S. to receive $200 million worth of security equipment and support for police projects in an effort to reduce violence. Ecuador also seeks a $120 million donation from a Canadian foundation and cooperation with Britain and the E.U. for training and intelligence. President Daniel Noboa has pledged to tackle violence blamed on drug trafficking gangs with the creation of a new intelligence unit, reinforced security at ports, and more tactical weapons for security forces.  Reuters 

Africa

Congo Asks U.N. for Help with Challenging Election Logistics.  The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has asked the U.N. to continue its peacekeeping mission, known as MONUSCO, to extend logistical support for national elections to additional eastern provinces. The DRC has faced challenges delivering voting material to eastern provinces due to conflict with rebels and a lack of paved roads.  The DRC had also asked for support from neighboring Angola, but its request was denied.  MONUSCO is waiting for authorization from the U.N. Security Council on the request.  Reuters 

Ethiopian Police Arrest Ex-Peace Minister Over Alleged Association to Insurgent Group.  Ethiopian police this week arrested former peace minister Taye Dendea for his alleged cooperation and connection with the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). He was detained after publishing a sequence of social media posts criticizing the government and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.  Ethiopian police on Tuesday claimed he collaborated “with anti-peace forces that are trying to destroy Ethiopia” and accused Dendea of belonging to the OLA. Police published photos of items purportedly found at the ex-minister’s home, such as firearms, mobile phones, OLA flags, and identity documents. The office of the prime minister has not responded to questions concerning Dendea’s criticisms of him. The OLA is viewed as a terrorist organization in Ethiopia.  The group claims to fight for greater representation for the Oromo ethnic group.  Associated Press Reuters

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Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell, Emma Fisk, and Tiffany Krueger contributed to this report. 

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