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10:00 AM ET, Thursday, August 31, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

The Americas

Pentagon to Reveal National Defense Industrial Strategy in December.  The Pentagon is planning to publish a national defense industrial strategy in December.  The strategy is reportedly more than a third completed and will focus on filling production gaps, as well as achieving a ready workforce, resilient supply chains, and fair markets.  Halimah Najieb-Locke, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Industrial Base Resilience, said the strategy’s aim is not to change buying authorities but to better use the Pentagon’s existing ones and improve its relationship with the industrial base.  The strategy will come amid global challenges like competition with China and the Ukraine war, which have stressed the industrial base.  Defense News

Biden Administration Approves Taiwan Military Aid Under Program Used for Sovereign States.  The Biden administration reportedly approved a military transfer to Taiwan under the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program which is typically used for sovereign states.  The FNF is the largest military assistance budget managed by the State Department. The account is used to purchase U.S. defense equipment and military training under the Foreign Military Sales program.  According to a notification sent to Congress, the Department of State said it intends to provide up to $80 million in FBF funds to support Taiwan.  A State Department official confirmed the notification but said that the decision to provide FNF funds does not reflect a change in U.S. policy.  China has complained in the past about U.S. military assistance to Taiwan, with the Chinese defense ministry calling U.S. support “military collusion.”  Reuters

Western Europe

UK Names New Defense Minister.  The British government on Thursday appointed former-energy secretary Grant Shapps as the UK’s new defense minister, replacing Ben Wallace.  Wallace, who helped lead the UK through both the Ukraine war and the resignation of two prime ministers, wanted to step down after four years in the role.  Shapps, an ally of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, has served in four different ministries over the last year, including transport, interior affairs, business and energy and net zero. Reuters South China Morning Post  Reuters Associated Press

EU Ministers Meeting in Spain to Discuss Niger Coup.  EU foreign ministers are meeting in Spain on Thursday to discuss the bloc’s response to the Niger coup.  Hassoumi Massoudou, the foreign minister of Niger's ousted government, and Omar Touray, President of the ECOWAS commission, will attend the talks.  EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said ahead of the meeting that the Niger coup is “opening a new era of instability in a region which was already very fragile.”  He added that the EU is developing a legal framework to sanction Niger coup leaders.  He also said that the EU will mirror economic measures taken by ECOWAS against Niger, though Borrell said the EU will have to deliberate over any requests by ECOWAS for financial support for a military intervention into Niger.  Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani on Thursday warned a military solution in Niger would lead to “disaster” and trigger a new migrant crisis in the region.  The Spain meeting will also touch on the coup in Gabon and more widely look at Europe’s security efforts and military support across Africa.  The meeting will also include discussions on the Ukraine war with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.  ABC News Reuters 

Central and Eastern Europe

New Video Shows Prigozhin Discussing His Security Prior to His Death.  A newly released video of Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin purportedly shows him discussing potential risks to his life just days before he was reportedly killed in a plane crash in Russia.  In the video, which was published to the Wagner-linked Grey Zone Telegram channel, he said: “For those who are discussing whether I'm alive or not, how I'm doing - right now it's the weekend, second half of August 2023, I'm in Africa… So for people who like to discuss wiping me out, or my private life, how much I earn or whatever else - everything's ok.”  It was unclear when the second video was filmed, but Prigozhin’s attire matched what he wore in a video released a couple of days before, during which he also claimed to be in Africa.  Prigozhin’s comments in the video suggest he knew of the risks to his life.  The Kremlin says it is investigating his death and will consider whether he was deliberately killed, but has rejected accusations that President Vladimir Putin killed him in revenge for the Wagner munity.  Reuters 

Russia Says New Ukrainian Drone Attacks Thwarted.  Russia said that it prevented new Ukrainian air attacks a day after Ukrainian drones struck targets deep within Russa. One of the attacks destroyed two Russian military transport planes located on a military base approximately 400 miles from the Ukrainian border. This latest announcement said that anti-aircraft units downed two Ukrainian drones in the southern Bryansk region. Additionally, the Russian head of Crimea said that a Ukrainian cruise missile was intercepted. The reported attacks also coincide with Russia’s most severe air strikes on Kyiv in months, which killed at least two people.  Reuters

Asia and Oceania

North Korea Conducts Tactical Nuclear Strike Drill.  North Korea staged a “scorched-earth” nuclear strike simulating attacks on targets across South Korea in retaliation for allied drills, which Pyongyang views as a war rehearsal.  Using an uncharacteristic amount of detail, state media described the drills as a demonstration of how the North plans to carry out a potential war with nuclear weapons in which Pyongyang repels a sudden invasion and then launches a counterattack to occupy the South.  The North Korean army released a statement saying the drill simulated attacks on “major command centers and operational airfields of the 'ROK' [South Korea] military gangsters.”  South Korea’s military said on Wednesday that the North launched two short-range ballistic missiles into the ocean just hours after the U.S. deployed B-1B bombers for allied air exercises in the region.  Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida condemned the launch, telling reporters that "these conducts pose threats to peace and stability of not only our country, but of the region and international community, and cannot be tolerated.”  Reuters Associated Press

Japan Makes Record Defense Spending Request.  The Japanese defense ministry requested 7.7 trillion yen (around 52 billion USD) in defense spending for the upcoming 2024 fiscal year, amidst rising tensions with China.  The request adds nearly a trillion yen to the previous year’s 6.8 trillion yen budget, marking a 13% increase.  This is part of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s plan to increase military spending by 43 billion yen over the next five years, doubling defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2027.  Reuters

China’s Newest Official Map Sparks Backlash Among Some Asian Countries. The Philippines, Malaysia, and Taiwan rejected China’s most recently released official map which includes Beijing’s territorial claims in the South China Sea.  The map shows China’s famous U-shaped line that covers about 90% of the South China Sea.  It was unclear whether it included new claims, but it did include ten dashes, which differs from previous nine-dash line versions.  The latest map’s line included Taiwan.  Following the release of the map, the Philippines called on China to follow international law, and Malaysia has filed a diplomatic protest of the map.  Taiwan’s foreign ministry asserted the island’s sovereignty in response.  Reuters

China Holds Anti-Submarine Drills.  The Chinese military announced in a statement that they had recently conducted anti-submarine exercises in the South China Sea.  This comes amid growing tensions in the region between China and its neighbors.  According to the statement, over a dozen anti-submarine patrol aircraft operated for more than 40 hours non stop, looking for submarines and simulating attacks. The statement did not say whether or not foreign submarines were discovered during the drills.  The U.S. Navy operates around two dozen nuclear-powered attack submarines in the Pacific and has its Seventh Fleet headquartered in Japan.  Reuters 

Xi Likely Skipping G20 Summit in India.  Chinese President Xi Jinping is likely to skip the upcoming G20 Summit in New Delhi from September 9 to 10, according to sources.  Multiple sources told Reuters that Beijing will be represented at the meeting by Premier Li Qiang.  Sources in China said they were unaware of a reason for his likely absence.  The summit was expected to be a venue in which Xi could meet with President Joe Biden, as they did at the G20 summit in Bali last November.  The two leaders could still potentially meet at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Leaders Meeting in San Francisco on November 12 to 18.  Russian President Vladimir Putin is also not attending the G20 Summit in India and is sending Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in his stead.  Reuters 

Middle East and Northern Africa

UN Sanctions on Mali to Cease after Russia Vetoes Renewal.  UN Security Council sanctions against Mali will terminate on Thursday after Russia vetoed a renewal of the sanctions and independent sanctions monitoring.  Russia’s veto defeated a resolution drafted by France and the UAE to extend the sanctions, which targeted anyone breaching or obstructing a 2015 peace agreement, for another year.  Deputy U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Robert Wood said Moscow sought to eliminate the independent monitoring "to stifle publication of uncomfortable truths about Wagner's actions in Mali, which require attention."  The Wagner Group has been accused of human rights abuses in Mali.  Russia's Deputy U.N. Ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy dismissed Wood’s accusation, saying that Moscow was "upholding the interests of the affected country - Mali, as the council is supposed to do."  Reuters France 24

Rockets Fired at Iraq’s Khor Mor Gas Field. The Iraqi Kurdish natural resources ministry said Wednesday that multiple rockets were launched toward the Khor Mor gas field in northern Iraq’s Sulaimaniya region, though there were no casualties or damage. Officials said two rockets fell near the perimeter of the field.  The ministry said the attack will not impact gas or electricity production.  The field has been targeted in attacks several times in the past. Reuters Jerusalem Post

Palestinian Driver Kills 1 in West Bank Before Being Fatally Shot.  A Palestinian driver rammed his vehicle into Israeli soldiers at the Maccabim checkpoint in the West Bank, killing one soldier before being fatally shot by security guards at a separate checkpoint after speeding away.  The driver, who Israeli authorities identified as a man from the West Bank city of Ramallah who had a permit to work in Israel, made a U-turn when he saw the soldiers, who were in uniform, standing beside a bagel stand and slammed his truck into them.  Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said three other people were wounded in the attack, including a Palestinian bagel vendor.  Violence between Palestinians and Israelis in the West Bank has spiked over the last year.  Associated Press Al Jazeera

Sub Saharan Africa

At Least 7 People Killed in Anti-UN Mission Protests in Eastern Congo's Goma.  The Congolese army said that at least six protestors and one police officer were killed Wednesday in anti-UN demonstrations in the city of Goma, located in the east of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.  Images and footage on social media show people in civilian attire, armed with sticks and stone, attacking a policeman on the ground, despite the fact that organizers called for peace. Reuters could not verify the videos. In a statement, the Congolese army said that 158 people were arrested and six protestors killed in the violence, though a source from the UN reported that the death toll was at least eight, including a policeman and two soldiers. The UN’s peacekeeping mission in Congo, MONUSCO has been the subject of many protests since 2022, as demonstrators have accused the peacekeepers of failing to shield civilians from militia violence.  Eastern Congo has faced mounting difficulties in recent years, including repeated natural disasters and insurgent conflicts that have spurred a humanitarian crisis and displaced 5.5 million people.  Reuters

Cyber and Tech

U.S. Curbs Nvidia, AMD Chip Exports to Middle East.  The U.S. expanded export restrictions on advanced artificial intelligence chips from Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) beyond China to other countries, including some in the Middle East.  Nvidia said in a regulatory filing that the restrictions apply to its A100 and H100 chips, which speed up machine-learning tasks.  Nvidia did not give a reason for the restrictions or say which countries it affected.  Both Nvidia and AMD said the move will not have a material impact on their revenue.  The U.S. Commerce Department did not comment on the matter.  Export controls are usually imposed over national security reasons, with past controls on the companies’ exports to China aimed at cutting off Beijing’s access to “military end use” chips.  It is unclear what risks warranted the controls for the Middle East.  Reuters

China Clears ‘Ernie Bot’ for Public Use, Other AI Approvals Expected.  Baidu said Wednesday it has received approval from Chinese authorities to offer the services of its chatbot, Ernie Bot, to the general public, making it the first company to receive the government’s go-ahead.  Baidu also will release new applications for users to experience generative AI.  The Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) is expected to extend approvals to multiple firms. including startups and major technology firms.  The approvals will provide generative AI services to one billion or more Internet users for the first time.  The move marks a milestone for China’s AI industry.  Since the debut of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Chinese tech firms have committed billions of dollars to develop services that can compete with generative AI products and services offered by Microsoft, Google, and other tech giants.  Reuters Bloomberg

Israel Begins Flight Testing of World’s ‘Most Advanced’ Surveillance Aircraft.  Israel’s Defense Ministry says test flights have begun of the Oron surveillance aircraft, described as the “most advanced aircraft of its kind” in the world.  The Oron is the product of a joint effort of the defense ministry R&D element, the Israeli Air Force intelligence corps, the Navy, and a subsidiary of Israeli Aerospace Industry corporation.  The Oron features C4I systems and sensors that the defense ministry says will enable real-time, all-weather monitoring of ground movements “across expansive terrain.”  The aircraft offers “first-of-its-kind” targeting and weapons guidance and, when operational, will be assigned to the 122^nd Squadron, which supports special operations with surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft.  According to military officials, the Oron’s systems will employ AI technology to create “an efficient and automated data processing system, which will produce actionable intelligence in real time, enhancing the effectiveness of IDF operational activities.”  BreakingDefense

Costa Rican President Describes Country’s Recovery from 2022 Ransomware Campaign.  Costa Rica’s cyber defenses are stronger than ever following ransomware attacks that paralyzed critical government services in 2022, Costa Rican President Rodrigo Chaves told an audience at the Center for Strategic and International Studies on Wednesday.  Participating in a panel discussion with Anne Neuberger, deputy national security advisor for cyber and emerging technologies, and Nathanial Fick, ambassador for cyberspace and digital policy, Chaves said the ransomware campaign had a “devastating” impact on Costa Rica, which refused to pay the $20 million ransom demanded by the now-defunct Russia-linked Conti gang.  Chaves recalled that the “backbone” functions of the government were affected, including the tax, customs, social security, and health systems.  “It was ugly,” Chaves commented.  The U.S. has committed $25 million to develop Costa Rica’s new, centralized cybersecurity facility to monitor, detect, and respond to cyberattacks.  Chaves said after decades of neglect, the attacks served as a wake-up call for the country.  The Record 

Indian Lunar Mission Confirms Presence of Sulfur, Continues Search for Water.  India’s Chandrayaan-3 lunar mission has confirmed the presence of sulfur on the moon’s south pole through “first-ever in-situ measurements,” according to the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO).  The presence of sulfur could provide clues about the Moon's evolution.  The Indian mission also detected aluminum, calcium, iron, chromium, and titanium, as well as the presence of manganese, silicon, and oxygen.  The ISRO said measurements to detect the presence of hydrogen are ongoing.  Researchers regard the moon’s south pole, despite its challenging terrain, to be well suited to future exploration missions and mining operations.  The area is projected to be mineral-rich, with the possible presence of ice that could be used for drinking water or as an element of rocket fuel.  During its 14-day mission, the Chandrayaan-3 lander will conduct multiple experiments, including the search for water.  India is now preparing its first human space flight which will send a crew of three into orbit for three days.  Cybernews

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