10:00 AM ET, Thursday, August 24, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
The Americas
Argentinian President Calls for Peace After Wave of Violence. Argentina’s President Alberto Fernández on Wednesday appealed for calm as the country struggles with a high number of lootings ahead of October’s presidential election. Fernández asked citizens to “preserve social peace” and said that the lootings “evidently were organized.” His spokeswoman, Gabriela Cerruti, accused right-wing populist candidate Javier Mile of attempting to destabilize Argentina by spreading “rumors and agitation” to initiate the crimes. Mile denounced the allegations and suggested that the government may have instigated the looting. Some store owners have closed their businesses, fearing a repeat of Argentina’s 2001 lootings after an economic collapse. Security Minister Aníbal Fernández asserted that that there was an “effort to generate some sort of conflict” and the lootings were “not spontaneous.” Officials in Buenos Aires said 94 people were arrested, and that there were more than 150 looting attempts since the beginning of the week. Associated Press
U.S. Senator Urges Biden Administration to Reject Former Warlords’ Extradition to Colombia. Republican Senator Marco Rubio is pressing the Biden administration to refuse Colombia’s request that former warlord Salvatore Mancuso be extradited, after Bogotá declared him a peace envoy, an action that could lead to him evading extra prison time for human rights violations. Mancuso, who in 2020 finished serving a 12-year sentence in the US for cocaine trafficking, allegedly played a role in more than 1,500 murders and forced disappearances. Colombian President Gustavo Petro in August named the former guerilla commander a peace envoy in an effort to encourage the dissolvement of illicit armed syndicates. He also said he would try to suspend Mancuso’s prison sentences. In a letter sent to Attorney General Merrick Garland on Wednesday, Rubio wrote, “to allow Mancuso to not only walk free in Colombia, but also represent the Colombian government in negotiations with drug traffickers currently working to flood our community with narcotics, would be an insult to the thousands of Colombians who are victims of Mancuso’s crimes.” Currently, Mancuso is seeking asylum in the US. One of his lawyers, Manuel Renteria, chose not to comment on the situation. Associated Press
U.S. Officials Draft Proposal for Relaxing Venezuela's Oil Sanctions. According to five sources, American officials are drafting a proposal that would relax sanctions on Venezuelan oil, thereby permitting more countries and businesses to import its crude oil, if Caracas holds a free and fair presidential election. The US imposed sanctions on the South American nation after President Nicolas Maduro’s 2018 reelection, which was widely considered to be the result of fraud. The White House said Wednesday that the US is ready to offer Venezuela sanctions relief if the nation can restore democracy, with a spokesperson for the National Security Council asserting, "should Venezuela take concrete actions toward restoring democracy, leading to free and fair elections, we are prepared to provide corresponding sanctions relief." Neither the U.S. State Department, nor Venezuelan negotiation head Jorge Rodriguez, responded to requests for comment. Reuters
Western Europe
Portugal to Train Ukrainian Pilots on F-16s. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday announced that Portugal has agreed to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets. Zelensky confirmed the development in a joint press conference with Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in Kyiv, adding that the two discussed further defense cooperation, including Portugal supplying armored medical equipment and demining equipment to Ukraine. Greece and Denmark have also agreed to train Ukrainian pilots on the jets. Ukrinform
Central and Eastern Europe
Former CIA Director Remains Optimistic on Ukraine Counteroffensive. Former CIA Director and Cipher Brief Expert General David Petraeus (Ret.) told CNN that he remains “guardedly optimistic” about Ukraine’s counteroffensive, even as other U.S. officials express concern about Kyiv’s progress. Petraeus says Ukraine has faced extremely tough Russian defenses in the form of deep minefields and extensive trenches. He argued that it “just was not possible” to overcome these defenses and even asserted “we could not have done this,” likening the task to what U.S. forces faced in the Gulf War and in the fight to Baghdad. Petraeus quoted Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the UK chief of defense staff, in saying the Ukraine counteroffensive aims to “stretch, starve and strike” to exhaust Russian forces by engaging them along a vast front and slowly advancing where possible. Petraeus countered criticism by Western officials that Ukraine should have committed a significant amount of forces to break through a few individual points on the front, noting that Russia could more easily reposition troops to oppose this method. Petraeus argued that the West must now double down on militarily supporting Ukraine, writing later on LinkedIn that despite difficulties, “gains are now apparent, and this is not a moment to wring our hands or grade the Ukrainian forces’ work.” He called for the delivery of U.S. army tactical missile system (ATACMS), cluster munitions and other artillery to back the counteroffensive. CNN LinkedIn
Western Officials Unsurprised at Reports of Prigozhin’s Death. Western officials have largely reacted to reports that Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin died in a plane crash in Russia with little shock. President Joe Biden told reporters that he was “not surprised” by the news, adding that “not much happens in Russia that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is not behind,” suggesting that the Kremlin may have been behind Prigozhin’s death. Biden added that he still doesn’t “know enough to know the answer.” Former senior CIA officer and Cipher Brief Expert Daniel Hoffman was more sure about Putin’s role, asserting that Putin was “cauterizing his wounds” by killing Prigozhin, who led a mutiny against the Russian military leadership. Hoffman said Prigozhin’s death was meant to show that “anyone who betrays Putin is going to pay the ultimate price.” Moving forward, analysts say Prigozhin’s removal may cause more difficulties for Putin by angering those still loyal to Prigozhin, especially remaining Wagner fighters, and removing a figure who effectively helped Russia project into Africa. Reuters Politico
Ukraine Says it Launched ‘Special Operation’ in Crimea. The Ukrainian defense ministry's Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) said on Thursday that Ukraine’s navy and military intelligence launched a “special operation” into Russian-occupied Crimea. HUR said special units landed on the western tip of the territory, near the settlements of Olenivka and Mayak. HUR added that “all goals” were accomplished and that “the state flag flew again in Ukrainian Crimea,” without providing further details. The operation, which coincided with Ukraine’s Independence Day, would mark a rare demonstration that Ukrainian forces are able to stage ground operations in Crimea. Reuters
Ukraine Claims to Have Taken Out Key S-400 Missile Defense System. Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence agency on Wednesday claimed that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile defense system in occupied Crimea. GUR said that Russia has a “limited number” of the systems and that the destruction of one dealt a “painful blow” to Moscow. The system has a range of 250 miles and is seen as one of the most sophisticated systems that can strike enemy aircraft. Russia did not comment on the reported strike. Associated Press
Three Drones Downed in Russian Territory. Russia’s defense ministry says Russian defenses shot down three Ukrainian drones over Russian territory early on Thursday. The ministry said two drones were intercepted over Russia’s western Bryansk region, which borders Ukraine, and a third was downed over the Kaluga region, closer to Moscow. There were no reports of casualties or damage. Al Jazeera
Russian Strikes Across Ukraine Kill One, Injure 16. Ukrainian officials report that Russian strikes across Ukraine killed at least one person and injured 16 people on Thursday. A farmer was killed from shelling in the southern Kherson region, and three others were injured in a missile strike on the center of the city of Kherson. A missile strike on a bus terminal in Dnipro injured another 10 people, and three others were wounded in an attack on a supermarket in the frontline town of Kurakhove in the eastern Donetsk region. The attacks came as Ukraine marked the 32nd anniversary of its independence from Moscow. Al Jazeera Reuters
Ukrainian Intelligence Says it Captured Russian Helicopter. Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence agency said it lured a Russian military pilot to land his Mi-8 helicopter at a Ukrainian airfield. GUR spokesperson Andriy Yusov confirmed the operation on Wednesday. Ukrainian media outlet Ukrainska Pravda reported that GUR worked over six months to convince the pilot to cooperate and land the aircraft in eastern Ukraine. The helicopter is reportedly fully operational. The operation appears to mark a significant success for Ukraine since the helicopter can be used to replenish its air stocks and potentially provide valuable intelligence on Russia’s air force. The Russian defense ministry did not comment on the matter. Reuters
Russia Extends Detention of WSJ Reporter by Three Months. A Russian court on Thursday extended the pre-trial detention of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gerhskovich by three months. His detention was set to expire on August 30 but will now continue till November 30. Gerhskovich was arrested in March on suspicion of espionage. Gerhskovich rejects any wrongdoing and the U.S. deems him wrongfully detained. Axios Deutsche Welle Wall Street Journal
Asia and Oceania
North Korea Second Attempt to Launch Spy Satellite Fails. North Korea attempted to launch another spy satellite into orbit on Thursday, but failed after the rocket booster experienced a problem in its third stage. North Korean state media confirmed the failure and reported that North Korea’s National Aerospace Development Administration (NADA) will investigate the failure to prepare for a third satellite launch attempt in October. The report added that NADA believes the latest failure “is not a big issue” in terms of the rocket’s overall reliability. South Korea’s military said it is trying to salvage wreckage from the crashed rocket. Japanese security officials said parts of the rocket fell into the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea, and the Pacific Ocean. Pyongyang attempted a first satellite launch in May which also failed, sending the rocket and payload into the sea. Associated Press Reuters USINDOPACOM
Taiwan Proposes Extra $3 Bln Spending on New Weapons Next Year. Taiwan’s government said Thursday that the nation plans on spending an extra $2.97 billion to purchase new weapons in 2024 to strengthen its defenses against China. Officials in Taipei say that half of the additional $2.97 billion will go towards fighter jets, and the rest to fortifying naval defenses. Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen revealed Monday that the nation will spend T$606.8 billion on defense next year, marking a 3.5% increase from the previous year. If approved by Taiwan’s parliament, the island’s defense spending for 2024 will amount to 2.5% of its GDP. On Wednesday, the U.S. agreed to the potential $500 million sale to Taiwan of infrared search and track systems for F-16 fighter jets. China’s foreign ministry called on Washington to cancel the sale. Reuters
Middle East and Northern Africa
Iran Sentences Eight to Prison Over Involvement in Paramilitary’s Death. Iranian state media reported on Wednesday that seven men and one woman have been sentenced to eight years in prison for allegedly aiding in the killing of a paramilitary volunteer during nationwide protests. The sentences were carried out ahead of the one-year anniversary of Mahsa Amini’s death in police custody, which sparked widespread protests across Iran. The defendants have been found guilty of committing “warfare” and of “corruption on Earth”, a term used to describe attempts to undermine the Iranian government. Associated Press
Baath Party Offices Raided in Southern Syria During Protests. Protestors in the southern Syrian province of Sweida raided local Baath party offices on Wednesday. The raids are part of mounting anti-government protests in the Druze-majority Sweida province in response to a worsening economic crisis and living conditions. Protests have not spread into government strongholds such as Aleppo and Homs but have taken place in critical areas such as the Daraa province bordering Jordan. Associated Press
Turkish Drone Hits Car in Kurdish Pocket of Syria. A Turkish drone strike in Syria’s Kurdish-controlled northeast on Wednesday killed one person and injured another. The local Jin TV station stated that the Turkish drone strike had killed the outlet’s hired driver and seriously injured a correspondent. Medical and security sources in northeast Syria have confirmed the casualties. The media office of the Kurdish-led authorities said that the strike “targeted a car carrying journalists” but did not mention any casualties. Turkey’s defense ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the matter. Reuters
Sub Saharan Africa
BRICS Invites Six Countries to Join Bloc. BRICS on Thursday announced it will invite Saudi Arabia, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, Argentina, and the United Arab Emirates to join the bloc. The six candidate countries will formally become members on January 1 next year. The bloc’s leaders, who were meeting in Johannesburg, South Africa, added that more countries may be admitted in the future. The prospect of enlarging BRICS topped the agenda of the summit. While members expressed support for expansion, the meeting was marked by divisions over the scope and pace. Notably, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres attended the expansion announcement and echoed calls from BRICS to reform multilateral institutions like the UN Security Council and World Bank, which critics say are structured for “yesterday’s world” to better reflect the modern world. Reuters
Cyber and Tech
UK Considers Requiring Advance Notice of Software Fixes Before Implementation. Britain is considering revisions to the UK Investigatory Powers Act (IPA) that would require tech platform companies and cybersecurity researchers that have detected new system and software vulnerabilities to leave them uncorrected until authorities are notified. The proposed approach is similar to vulnerability reporting requirements in effect in China. The revisions to the IPA could add a requirement for companies to notify the government before introducing any technical changes to their systems. In practice, any messaging service preparing to correct a security feature would need to inform the Home Office in advance. Digital device manufacturers, which regularly provide security updates and patches to equipment and software, also would be required to notify authorities. John Scott-Railton, a senior researcher at the University of Toronto, said the proposed revision is “catastrophically shortsighted.” He said Britain’s global competitiveness would be damaged if companies need “a UK bureaucrat to OK emergency updates fixing an actively exploited flaw.” Scott-Railton added that “you can't be trusted when the UK government can secretly stop you from securing your users.” A government background document pointed to ongoing cooperation between regulators and the private sector while noting that “for that cooperation to be effective, and for our investigatory powers to remain effective against a backdrop of rapid technological change, companies must work openly and willingly with us.” Cybernews
Study Examines How Dual Pro-Russian Campaigns Sought To Undermine NATO Summit. Dual Russian campaigns to undermine the July NATO summit in Vilnius through disinformation and document leaks have been examined in a new report by the Graphika social media research firm. One group of Russian hackers used webpages masquerading as the NATO website and bogus social media accounts to disseminate fake NATO press releases. A second group claiming to have acquired Lithuanian government documents posted information online about internal security measures for the summit. Misinformation released by the campaign included a false announcement about the doubling of the NATO defense budget. Graphika’s investigations director, Tyler Williams, said the campaigns illustrated how “different [hackers] both conduct hard cyberattacks as well as hack-and-leak operations using what they've collected through their hard cyberattacks.” The Vilnius misinformation operations were similar in some respects to earlier pro-Russian influence campaigns known as Doppelganger and Secondary Infektion, elements of which have been linked to Russian companies that were sanctioned by the EU in July for “digital information manipulation.” A NATO spokesperson said the alliance had “monitored attempts by threat actors to create fake web stories in the days leading up to the Vilnius summit, which received low levels of engagement.” Politico
UK Reportedly Favors, Japan Opposes Inviting China to November Global AI Summit. Sources have reported that the UK government is eager to invite China to the global AI summit that will be held at Bletchley Park in November. Reportedly, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak envisions the summit as a forum similar to UN meetings on climate change in which China has participated. Sunak would signal by including Beijing in the summit that he had created as broad a framework as possible with the UK as the driving force behind an inclusive, international debate. According to Britain’s Tortoise Media Global AI Index, China ranks second only behind the U.S. in overall AI capabilities as measured by research, development, government strategies, talent, and infrastructure. However, the Japanese government has expressed to London its opposition to extending a summit invitation to China. Alternatives include holding separate meetings on AI, first, a summit limited o Group of Seven leaders followed by a wider gathering of cabinet-level officials from G7 nations, China and developing countries. Japan reportedly feels it is premature to include China in top-level discussions before the G7 reaches a consensus on generative AI. Those favoring inviting China believe including Beijing at early stages could elevate the effectiveness of the talks. Nikkei Asia
Hazards of Space Debris Illustrated by Recent Collision of Pieces in Orbit. The European Space Agency (ESA) has reported that space debris it was monitoring in a mission to remove orbiting trash was itself hit by another piece of debris, resulting in a splintering of the monitored object, and even more debris. The U.S. 18th Space Defense Squadron confirmed that it spotted new debris pieces in the vicinity of a payload adapter that the ESA had planned to remove from space. The most likely cause of those new fragments, the ESA reported, is “the hypervelocity impact of a small, untracked object” colliding with the payload adapter. As part of ESA’s planned ClearSpace-1 mission in 2026, the payload adapter would have been the first to be captured and removed from orbit. ESA said the debris collision validates the ClearSpace-1 mission since the fragmentation of large pieces of space debris into clouds of smaller objects can cause “significant damage to active satellites.” The Pentagon tracks more than 27,000 pieces of debris in Earth orbit, although millions more debris pieces cannot be tracked with operational sensors. An Opinion piece in the Washington Post’s Wednesday edition pointed to another peril from space debris as spacecraft fragments and pieces re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere and become dangerous projectiles to people and objects below. Bloomberg Space Washington Post
UN Negotiators Preparing Final Draft of Global Cybercrime Treaty. This week and next UN negotiators have gathered in New York to produce a final draft of a global cybercrime treaty. While expectations for the eventual final version are restrained, observers believe any text that can be approved by the UN General Assembly next year would be beneficial. Although cybercriminals and their victims are rarely in the same locations, there are few international agreements in place to allow apprehension of online threat actors. A previous international convention on cybercrime, from 2001, was not a UN treaty and was not approved by China, Russia, India, or Brazil, some of the countries hosting the most prolific cybercriminals. In 2021, the UN called for a draft convention on cybercrime to be put before the General Assembly in September 2024. Enforcement will be one of the key issues to be addressed, with countries such as Russia not permitting extradition of its citizens. To this point, the chair of the treaty drafting committee has steered the group toward consensus with no areas of profound disagreement that would endanger the negotiations. An analysis by the Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF) of the “zero draft” of the treaty that was made available in June is critical of many of its provisions, saying it looks “less like a cybercrime treaty and more like an expansive global surveillance pact.” Among other issues, the EFF study raises concerns about the scope of cross-border information sharing, the privacy of personal data, and the conditions and safeguards for criminal procedural measures. The Record Electronic Frontier Foundation
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