10:00 AM ET, Monday, September 11, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
The Americas
CIA Releases New Video to Recruit Russian Spies. The Central Intelligence Agency released a new video on social media this weekend that aims to recruit Russian officials as spies. The video, titled “Why I made contact with the CIA — for myself,” describes the Russian government as full of lying sycophants who disparage the truth and calls on Russian officials who seek to maintain their “integrity” to contact the agency. In July, CIA Director William Burns said that disaffection among some Russians over the invasion of Ukraine has caused a rare opportunity to recruit spies, and that the agency was capitalizing on it. Reuters
Lula Says Putin Would Be Welcomed at Brazil G20 Meeting. Brazilian President Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva said Saturday that Russian President Vladimir Putin can attend the Group of 20 (G20) meeting in Rio de Janeiro next year without fear of arrest. At this year’s G20 meeting in India, Lula confirmed that Putin would be invited to next year's meeting in Brazil and affirmed that Putin “can go easily” if he decides to attend. Separately, Lula added that he plans to go to a BRICS summit in Russia planned before the Rio meeting. The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Putin in March over his alleged role in war crimes related to the forced deportation of children from Ukraine. Putin has skipped several international meetings, such as the BRICS summit in South Africa, since the ICC issued the warrant. Brazil is a signatory to the ICC. Reuters Al Jazeera
Colombian President Proposes Latin American Anti-Narcotics Alliance. Colombian President Gustavo Petro on Saturday proposed an alliance between Latin American countries to bring a unified approach to anti-drug trafficking efforts. Speaking at the Latin American and Caribbean Conference on Drugs, Petro argued that the alliance should recognize drug use as a public health concern rather than view the issue as a military problem, which he said has led to “50 years of a failed war on drugs.” Countries attending the conference agreed to counter demand for illicit drugs with increased education and anti-poverty measures, as well as work to break links between drug trafficking and other illegal activities like firearms trafficking, transnational organized crime, human trafficking, and corruption. Reuters
Panama Announces New Measures to Address Darien Gap Migration. Panama announced new measures on Friday to curb rising migrant crossings through the Darien Gap jungle region, which reached an all-time high this year. Panamanian immigration officials told reporters that they are going to double the number of deportation flights for irregular migrants with criminal records, decrease the number of days some tourists are allowed to stay from 90 days to 15, and require people who plan to stay in Panama for 90 days to show proof of funds of at least $1,000, double the previous threshold of $500. Official data shows that 352,000 people crossed the Darien Gap between the beginning of this year and September 8, already surpassing the record high of 250,000 people in 2022. The U.N. expects that migrant crossings through the region are set to surpass 400,000 this year. Reuters Al Jazeera
Western Europe
Erdogan Urges Separation of Sweden NATO Membership, Turkey Bid for F-16s. Turkish President Recep Erdogan is calling for Turkey’s purchase of US F16’s to be a separate issue from Sweden’s NATO membership. Turkey had been the primary obstacle in Sweden’s path toward NATO membership and had asked in October 2021 to buy $20 billion worth of F-16s and 80 modernization kits for its current warplanes from Lockheed Martin. Turkey agreed to forward Sweden’s NATO bid in July, and a day later U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan announced Washington would go forward with the transfer of F-16s to Turkey. However, the details regarding the timing for both the F-16 approval and Turkish parliament’s forwarding of Sweden's bid remains uncertain. Reuters
Central and Eastern Europe
Zelensky Reports Advances in South, East. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday that the nation’s three-month-old counteroffensive has advanced against Russia’s occupying forces on the southern front and in the east near Bakhmut. Zelensky said that "over the past seven days we have made an advance in the Tavria sector” and "there is movement in the Bakhmut sector.” Ukrainian troops were also reportedly persisting in other eastern zones despite Russian assaults, including in Avdiivka and Maryinka as well as Lyman and Kupiansk. Vitaliy Barabash, the chief of the Avdiivka military administration, said that Ukrainian forces managed to capture the settlement of Opytne south of the city, calling the advance a "thunderous assault operation." Meanwhile, the General Staff of Ukraine's armed forces said there was "partial success as a result of assault operations" near Klishchiivka, a village south of Bakhmut, as well as advancements close to Robotyne. Reuters
Russia Launches Large Drone Assault on Kyiv. Ukrainian officials said Russia launched almost three dozen drones at Kyiv on Sunday. Ukraine’s air force reportedly destroyed 26 of 33 drones launched in the attack but officials declined to offer specifics on the other drones. Officials said four people were wounded in the attack. Emergency services added that drone debris fell in three different districts in Kyiv but there was no serious damage, though Kyiv Governor Ruslan Kravhcenko said an infrastructure facility and several houses were hit during the strikes. Reuters New York Times
Russia Says Drones, Speedboats Destroyed Near Crimea. Russia’s defense ministry claimed Russian forces downed eight Ukrainian drones and destroyed three military speedboats in the Black Sea near Crimea on Sunday. The ministry said the speedboats were carrying Ukrainian military personnel and were destroyed northeast of Snake Island. Reuters was unable to verify the claims from Moscow, and there has so far been no comment from Kyiv. Reuters
Ukraine Says it Recaptured Black Sea Drilling Rigs. Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence said on Monday that Ukrainian special forces regained control of oil and gas drilling platforms in the Black Sea near Crimea. The agency said that during the operation at the so-called “Boiko Rigs,” Ukrainian forces seized NAR type helicopter ammunition (unguided aerial missiles) and the Neva radar, which can track the movement of naval vessels in the Black Sea. The GUR added that Ukrainian forces on boats damaged an attacking Russian Su-30 fighter jet during the operation. The British Ministry of Defense said last month that Ukrainian and Russian troops have been battling for control of the platforms and noted that while the rigs provide access to hydrocarbons, they can also be used as forward deployment bases, helicopter landing sites and positions to establish long-range missile systems. Politico Ukrinform
Ukraine Intelligence Chief Says Ukraine Counteroffensive to Continue in Coming Months, Russian Troops Cannot Last Another Year. Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said Saturday that Ukraine’s counteroffensive will continue in the coming months even through the inclement weather at the end of the year, which will make fighting more difficult. Budanov acknowledged that the counteroffensive has progressed slower than desired, noting Russian mines and “kamikadze” drones as key obstacles. However, he said the counteroffensive is continuing “in several directions” and that it is “moving on slightly, slowly but surely.” Despite the challenges, Budanov asserted that the war will not be a “long-term fight,” arguing that Russia will only be unable to continue its full-scale invasion for “up to a year” since the war has severely diminished the Russian military and economy. However, he cautioned against over-optimism, saying that Russian forces are still “adapting” and have “more than one line of defense.” Budanov added that Ukraine’s goal of the liberation of all occupied Ukrainian territory is the only way to achieve a lasting peace since any other option “is just freezing the war.” He also said that drone attacks in Russia, which he said have pushed Russian society into “panic mode,” will continue so long as Russian forces remain in Ukraine. Newsweek Reuters Ukrinform VOA News
Ukraine Expects to Fly F-16s by This Winter. Ukraine’s military says Ukrainian pilots could be flying F-16 fighter jets into combat by this winter, an earlier timeline compared to past assessments. Ukrainian officials said with American training set to start this or next month, a group of 10 or less pilots could be ready to fly by as early as February. Despite the new optimism from Kyiv, some U.S. officials have been more conservative and say the Ukrainians aren’t likely to fly the jets until at least mid-2024, and potentially even later. Obstacles include the need to train a large maintenance and logistics staff to operate the F-16s, as well as reluctance from pilots to train on the jets since they will need to take time away from the battlefield, where they are currently flying Soviet-era MiG and Sukhoi jets, to do so. Kyiv has asked for the F-16s since last year to help provide the Ukrainian military with needed air support to drive out Russian forces. Delivering the jets to Ukraine will also help integrate the country’s military into the West. Wall Street Journal
Russia Confirms North Korea’s Kim to Visit. The Kremlin confirmed on Monday that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will visit Russia “in the coming days” at the invitation of Russian President Vladimir Putin. North Korean state media said the two leaders will “meet and talk.” Neither side specifics when or where Kim will travel, but it appears likely that he and Putin will meet in the eastern Russian city of Vladivostok. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin arrived in the Pacific port on Monday, and a South Korean official told CNN that Kim is on a train headed to Russia. The visit will be Kim’s first known trip abroad since the start of the Covíd-19 pandemic. It also comes amid reports that Russia is seeking an arms deal with North Korea. CNN Reuters
Western Officials Say Russian Ammunition, Tank Production Falling Short of Needs. Western officials said Friday that Russia may be able to increase the production of artillery to about 2 million shells annually, which will be about double previous Western expectations but still not enough to fulfill Moscow’s war needs. Officials estimated that Russia fired between 10 and 11 million rounds last year in Ukraine since its invasion in 2022, meaning Moscow faces a major “predicament” regarding the fact that it cannot produce enough rounds to replace what it is using in its invasion of Ukraine. Other investments in the Russian defense sector might allow Moscow to produce up to 200 tanks a year, also double previous Western estimates, officials added. However, they said that too is insufficient from what is needed after suffering heavy losses in Ukraine. These comments come after Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in May that weapons production and the supply of arms would be crucial to Russia’s success in its war against Ukraine. Reuters
Russia Upholds Demands on Grain Deal, Refuses UN Bank Subsidiary Proposal. Russia said Saturday that it was maintaining its conditions for a return to the Black Sea Grain Deal that it withdrew from in July. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov demanded that Moscow’s state agricultural bank, Rosselkhozbank, be relinked to the international SWIFT bank payments system, rejecting the UN’s proposal to connect a Luxembourg-based subsidiary of the bank. Peskov asserted that "the agreements say that SWIFT should be open to Rosselkhozbank, and not to its subsidiary,” and said that "all our conditions are perfectly well known … they are absolutely concrete and all this is absolutely achievable." Russia’s reiteration of its position on the issue came five days after a meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, who suggested that Kyiv should "soften its approaches" in talks over recovering the grain deal. Reuters Politico
UN Expert Says Russian Torture of Ukrainians is Systematic, State-Endorsed. A UN expert said Saturday that Russia’s use of torture against Ukrainian civilians and prisoners of war has reached such a point that it is plainly systematic and state-endorsed. The U.N. Special Rapporteur on torture, Alice Jill Edwards, reported that witnesses have shared credible accounts describing a pattern of violence, including rape and beatings, among Ukrainian troops captured by Russian forces and in different detention facilities under Russian occupation. Edwards said that Ukrainian officials told her that 90% of Ukrainian prisoners of war held by Moscow and released in exchanges have suffered torture. Edwards asserted that the torture “is not random, aberrant behavior … this is orchestrated as part of state policy to intimidate, instill fear or punish to extract information and confessions.” Moscow denies it practices torture but Edwards says that Russia’s failure to directly address the issue amounts to “tacit” approval of the practice. Edwards claims she has made 7 attempts to communicate with Moscow over the past year about the behavior of Russian soldiers. She said she has not yet seen a “military directive” from Russian authorities informing personnel that “torture is prohibited.” New York Times
Russian Regional Elections End with Putin’s United Russia Party on Top. Russia’s controversial regional and municipal elections, including zones annexed from Ukraine, ended on Sunday amid claims of vote rigging. The so-called results showed strong support for President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party. The Council of Europe, the continent’s largest human rights group, described the elections as a blatant violation of international law. Kyiv and its allies say the vote was an illegal attempt at strengthening Moscow’s power over zones in southern and eastern Ukraine. Electoral competition was limited in regional voting because Russian authorities barred strong candidates, such as some from Moscow’s main opposition Communist Party, from running. According to Stanislav Andreychuk, co-chair of the voter rights' group Golos, there have been reports of opposition candidates being imprisoned, having their vehicles vandalized, and, in one instance, military draft papers being served to election observers. He asserted that “these are not real elections.” The Kremlin has maintained that the elections are free and fair, with Putin being the most popular politician in the country and his United Russia party winning every provincial governor's race it contested. Candidates supported by the Kremlin also won in the four Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Reuters Al Jazeera
Japanese Foreign Minister, Zelensky Discuss Reconstruction, Security. Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met on Saturday to discuss security guarantees and cooperation on the reconstruction of Ukraine’s economy, according to the Japanese foreign ministry. The latest round of talks follows discussions held by the G7 in July that announced its members would begin bilateral security guarantee talks with Ukraine. Hayashi has pledged support from the public and private sectors of Japan to aid in the reconstruction of Ukraine's economy, which the World Bank estimated at over $400 billion in March of this year. Japan is currently planning to host a meeting on the economic reconstruction of Ukraine by early next year. Reuters World Bank
Asia and Oceania
G20 Summit Declaration Avoids Condemnation of Russia Over Invasion of Ukraine. The Group of 20 (G20) adopted a consensus declaration at the end of the G20 summit in New Delhi on Saturday that did not condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but called on states to not use force to seize territory. The declaration added that it welcomes all “relevant and constructive” proposals to help achieve a “comprehensive, just, and durable peace in Ukraine,” and also said “the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is inadmissible.” Western G20 members said the declaration was a strong statement that clearly rejected the use of force to violate a state’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. Russia, which was represented by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at the summit, did not immediately comment on the statement. Lavrov previously said he would block a final declaration if it did not reflect Russia’s position on Ukraine. Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said China was supportive of the declaration and noted that the G20 was “able to find common ground on all issues” despite differing views. Ukraine’s foreign ministry said the declaration was “nothing to be proud of” since it did not mention Russian aggression and that a Ukrainian presence at the summit would have offered attendees a more complete understanding of the situation. Analysts said Western leaders’ softer-than-usual rhetoric about Russia at the summit appeared to be rooted in a focus on consensus, as well as a possible India-led effort to avoid antagonizing either Russia or China. Reuters New York Times
Biden Meets Chinese Premier, Says Taiwan Invasion Less Likely Due to China’s Economic Troubles. President Joe Biden met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang at the sidelines of the Group of 20 (G20) meeting in New Delhi, marking the highest-level talks between the U.S. and China in months. Biden said he discussed “stability” and the Southern Hemisphere with Li and that their interaction “wasn’t confrontational at all.” Regarding the fact that Li attended the G20 summit in place of Chinese President Xi Jinping, Biden said “it would have been nice” for Xi to attend, but the summit went well without him. Biden also said that China is facing an economic “crisis,” noting turmoil in its real estate sector and high youth unemployment. Biden added that a major element of Xi’s economic plan “isn’t working at all right now,” though he didn’t elaborate. Biden further said that he thinks China’s economic troubles will make it less likely to invade Taiwan since Beijing “probably doesn’t have the same capacity that it has before.” Reuters Washington Post
India-Middle East-Europe Corridor Unveiled. World leaders at the Group of 20 (G20) summit in New Delhi signed a memorandum of understanding on Saturday on a new India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor. The initiative consists of rail and shipping links that aim to boost trade and improve the delivery of energy resources and digital connectivity between India, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan, Israel and the EU. Participants committed to creating an action plan for the project within the next two months. White House national security advisor Jake Sullivan said the network will be an example of “far-reaching investments” spurred by “effective American leadership” and that it aims to make the Middle East an economic hub rather than a “source of challenge, conflict or crisis.” The project comes as the U.S. seeks to improve relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Analysts said the initiative also looks like it aims to rival China’s Belt and Road Initiative. China was notably absent at the announcement of the corridor. Al Jazeera The Hill Washington Post
Vietnam, U.S. Sign Deals During Biden Visit. The U.S. and Vietnam signed several deals and partnerships during President Joe Biden’s visit to Hanoi on Sunday. Deals include an agreement by Vietnam Airlines to buy around 50 Boeing 737 Max jets for $75 billion; investments by U.S. technology companies for operations in Vietnam, including semiconductor design and incubation centers; and initiatives from Microsoft, NVIDIA and others to develop artificial intelligence solutions for Vietnam. The U.S. and Vietnam also committed to more human rights talks and agreed to cooperate on countering illegal fishing and other transnational crime in the region. The agreements come amid reports that Russia is offering a loan deal to Vietnam to buy Russian heavy weaponry. U.S. officials said Washington emphasized to Vietnam that it can offer alternatives to Russian military supplies, though formal arms deals have yet to be announced. Biden underscored during his visit that stronger ties with Vietnam are not aimed at “containing China” or starting a new “cold war” but are about alliance-building to “maintain stability.” Associated Press CNN CNBC Reuters New York Times
China’s Foreign Minister Skipping U.N. General Assembly. China is reportedly planning to send Vice President Han Zheng to the annual U.N. General Assembly later this month rather than Foreign Minister Wang Yi, according to sources. Chinese officials indicated as recently as July that Wang would attend and that while in the U.S., he would potentially visit Washington to discuss arrangements for Chinese President Xi Jinping’s possible attendance at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco in November. Wang’s planned absence at the U.N. event raises doubt over when he will visit the U.S. to plan Xi’s trip to San Francisco. Chinese sources said Wang may still make a separate trip to the U.S. and that both sides are working to schedule a time for his visit. Still, Zheng’s planned attendance at the U.N. assembly adds to mixed signals from China on engagement with the U.S. and continued unpredictability in China’s diplomatic activities. Wall Street Journal
Taiwan Says Chinese Carrier Group in West Pacific After U.S., Canadian Warships Transit Strait. Taiwan’s defense ministry said on Monday that a Chinese carrier group led by the Shandong passed 60 nautical miles from the island’s southeast coast as it entered the western Pacific for training. The ministry added that 11 Chinese military aircraft, including J-16 fighters, entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone on Monday morning and that Taiwanese forces made an “appropriate response.” The ministry’s report came after the U.S. guided-missile destroyer USS Ralph Johnson and the Canadian warship HMCS Ottawa sailed through the Taiwan Strait, marking the second such joint transit since June. The U.S. Navy’s 7th Fleet said the mission was “routine” and that it was held in “waters where high-seas freedom of navigation and overflight apply in accordance with international law.” The Eastern Theater Command of China’s People’s Liberation Army condemned the transit and said it monitored the mission and “handled” the situation according to relevant laws and regulations. Barron’s Reuters South China Morning Post
North Korea Marks 75th Founding Day with Parade, Diplomatic Pledges to Russia, China. North Korea on Friday marked the 75th anniversary of the nation’s founding day with a midnight parade of paramilitary forces and a pledge to strengthen ties with Russia and China. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Russian diplomats, and a Chinese delegation led by State Council vice-premier Liu Guozhong attended the parade in Pyongyang, according to North Korean state media. The event showcased the capital’s uniformed paramilitary forces riding in large trucks hauling missiles. A Russian military song-and-dance ensemble also attended. South Korean media said Kim did not make a speech. According to North Korean state media, Russian President Vladimir Putin called on the two nations to “expand the bilateral ties in all respects” to ensure “the security and stability on the Korean peninsula and northeast Asia." Chinese state media said China’s President Xi Jinping also “extended congratulations” in a call with Kim, who met with Liu and the other Chinese delegates before the parade to discuss “further intensifying the multi-faceted coordination and cooperation” between Beijing and Pyongyang. Reuters Al Jazeera BBC South China Morning Post
Philippines Resupplies Troops in South China Sea Atoll Despite Chinese Interference. The Philippines on Friday managed to complete a supply mission for its soldiers stationed on the Sierra Madre, a grounded warship, in the Second Thomas Shoal despite harassment from Chinese Coast Guard and maritime militia vessels. Reuters accompanied one of the Philippine Coast Guard's ships escorting the supply mission and documented how the Chinese vessels attempted to pursue and block the Philippine party from reaching the Sierra Madre. The Second Thomas Shoal is controlled by the Philippines and in the country’s 200-mile exclusive economic zone but claimed by China. The Chinese coast guard previously used a water cannon to deter a previous resupply mission in early August. Beijing has accused Manila of bringing construction materials to the grounded vessel, though the Philippines denies taking anything other than food and water. The Philippine coast guard has called China’s actions "illegal, aggressive and destabilizing.” Reuters
Myanmar Receives First Shipments of Promised Russian Su-30 Fighter Jets. Myanmar’s trade minister, Charlie Than, told Russian media that the country has received their first shipment of two Russian Su-30SME fighter jets. Myanmar reportedly signed a contract with Russia in September 2022 for the delivery of six of the jets. Separately, Than added that Myanmar and Russia will sign a number of bilateral agreements at the East Economic Forum, including the development of tourism between both countries. The U.S. has previously warned Russia that its backing of Myanmar’s military junta is destabilizing the region and that the supply of Russian weapons to Myanmar is helping fuel internal conflict. Russia’s defense minister and top diplomat have visited Myanmar, and Myanmar junta chief Min Aung Hlaing has been to Russia numerous times since seizing power in 2021. Reuters
Middle East and Northern Africa
Iran, U.S. Close to Implementing Qatar-Mediated Prisoner Swap. Iran and the U.S. are reportedly close to completing a prisoner swap mediated by Qatar. Sources said Tehran will release as many as five U.S. dual nationals currently under house arrest in exchange for a similar number of Iranian prisoners held in the U.S. and the release of $6 billion in Iranian funds frozen in South Korea. Qatar, which provided shuttle diplomacy between the U.S. and Iran, will reportedly oversee how Iran spends the unfrozen funds to ensure they are not used for transactions that violate U.S. sanctions. Sources added that the prisoners will transit Qatar when they are swapped. Iran said Monday that it is optimistic that the deal will be implemented “in the near future.” The U.S. State Department did not provide details on the negotiations but said U.S.-Iranian relations are not characterized by “trust” and that Washington will “judge Iran by its actions, nothing else.” South Korean foreign minister Park Jin said last week that the transfer of Iran’s frozen funds is underway. Qatar’s foreign ministry and the Iranian and Qatari central banks did not comment on the deal. Reuters
U.S. Acknowledges Seizure of Contraband Iranian Crude. The U.S. Department of Justice said on Friday that the U.S. disrupted the “illicit sale and transport of Iranian oil” by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in April. The department said the U.S. seized over 980,000 barrels of contraband crude oil that violated U.S. sanctions in the operation. The crude was unloaded last month from the tanker Suez Rajan, which had been waiting off the Texas coast to discharge. The department said Empire Navigation, the operating company of the tanker, agreed to cooperate and transport the oil to the U.S., marking the first criminal resolution to such a sanctions-violating sale. The Suez Rajan Ltd company pleaded guilty in April to the illicit sale and was sentenced to three years of corporate probation and a fine of almost $2.5 million. Reuters
Sub Saharan Africa
G20 Admits African Union as Permanent Member. Group of 20 (G20) members admitted the African Union as a permanent member of the bloc on Saturday. The African Union, which was previously only an “invited international organization,” now has the same status as the European Union. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who proposed upgrading the African Union’s status in June, said the move will strengthen the G20 and elevate the voice of the Global South. The development comes as African countries, which are rich in natural resources, seek foreign investment and stronger roles in international bodies. Associated Press Reuters
Nigeria Accuses France of Deploying Troops in Region for Possible Intervention. Niger’s junta has accused France of deploying troops in multiple West African countries to prepare for a possible military intervention in coordination with the regional bloc ECOWAS. French President Emmanuel Macron dismissed the accusations, saying "we do not recognize any legitimacy in the statements of the putschists." He added that any movement of the 1,500 French troops stationed in Niger would only be made at the request of President Mohamed Bazoum, who was ousted in a military coup in July. Macron did not directly address the accusation regarding French troops deploying elsewhere in West Africa. Reuters
Gabon Junta Eyes 24-Month Transition. Gabon’s junta-appointed Prime Minister Raymond Ndong Sima said it would be “reasonable” to have a 24-month transition to elections, according to French news agency AFP. Gabon army officers seized power in a military coup in late August, ousting President Ali Bongo from power after he won an election the opposition said was not credible. The junta has promised fair elections but has not said when these elections will be held. Reuters
Cyber and Tech
Congressional Panels This Week To Hear Tech Leader Testimony on AI Governance. The coming week promises to be a busy one on Capitol Hill for AI-related matters as three separate hearings will be held on the technology, with testimony by Microsoft President Brad Smith and Nvidia chief scientist William Daly. Those tech leaders will be joined by other experts at a Senate Judiciary subcommittee meeting Tuesday under the label, “Oversight of AI: Legislating on Artificial Intelligence.” Sen. Richard Bluementhal, who heads the subcommittee, said that the session will help shape legislation “to protect against AI harms.” Last week, Blumenthal and the panel’s top Republican, Sen. Josh Hawley, presented a bipartisan draft of a framework to create AI guardrails featuring an independent oversight body and instituting provisions for legal accountability, national security, and protecting consumers and children. On Wednesday, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will host tech leaders and experts at an AI forum that includes Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg and Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Rounding out the week, a House Oversight subcommittee will hold a hearing on Thursday to examine potential risks in federal agency adoption of AI. The House hearing will feature White House Office of Science and Technology Policy Director Arati Prabhaker, the Pentagon's chief AI officer Craig Martell, and Eric Hysen, CIO of the Department of Homeland Security. Reuters New York Times
G20 Calls for ‘Pro-Innovation’ AI Governance Approach that Protects Rights, Privacy. G20 leaders have discussed strategies to manage AI technologies to promote economic development while simultaneously protecting human rights. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who hosted the two-day summit in New Delhi, urged the G20 to develop a “human-centric” framework for AI, a proposal echoed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Speaking at the G20 meeting, she suggested a similar oversight body before the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The G20 final communique declared the group would strive for “responsible AI development, deployment and use” in order to protect rights, transparency, and privacy. The G20 also advocated a regulatory approach that would promote innovation while taking steps to minimize risks. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her Indian counterpart discussed coordination on the topic in anticipation of AI remaining a key issue during Italy’s presidency of the G7 in 2024. Bloomberg
Cybercriminals Fleeing Russian Conscription Find Allies, Operating Bases in Turkey. Turkish cybercriminals have been reinforced by the recent arrival in Ankara and other cities of Russian immigrants who have sought refuge from military conscription in Russia. According to Turkish law enforcement and cybersecurity analysts, some of the new arrivals conducting low-level online scams have teamed up with Turkish criminals, who provide money laundering services and sell online credentials stolen from systems around the world. Turkish police say that unlike cybercriminals in Russia, who often operate openly, the multinational teams active in Turkey use sophisticated cloaking technologies to evade detection. Now, authorities say, new cybercrime cartels are developing and gaining traction in areas previously dominated by established Russian and Belarusian gangs. A police source said the new cybercrime groups avoid attacking Turkish targets to lessen scrutiny by local authorities. Security researchers draw attention to the “Underground Cloud of Logs,” a favorite marketplace of cybercriminals, noting that in recent months the data repository has collected stolen credit cards, passwords, and login credentials numbering in the tens of millions. A cybersecurity researcher noted that selling passwords is not new, but that the unusual feature of these transactions is that “the information arrives ‘fresh’ — each update contains a package with hundreds to thousands of logs stolen in the last few hours, keeping the cookies ‘hot’.” A Turkish security specialist who gained access to a cybercriminals’ Telegram site by posing as a data purchaser, said that he observed newly arrived Russian hackers teaching Turkish counterparts advanced code to manage the large collections of harvested data. Financial Times
FAA Requires Multiple SpaceX Corrections to Starship Rocket Before Another Launch. After a five-month investigation into a SpaceX rocket explosion soon after launch in April, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has identified “63 corrective actions SpaceX must take” before another Starship rocket test is scheduled. Once the corrections are implemented, the FAA will require SpaceX to apply for an FAA license modification addressing safety, environmental, and other factors in advance of the next Starship launch. Among the corrective actions required are rocket redesigns to prevent leaks and fires as well as improvements to the launchpad. In a SpaceX website blog post on Friday, the company said it has made multiple upgrades to Starship and its launchpad, including an "enhanced and requalified" flight termination system. Several environmentalist groups have filed a lawsuit citing the launch site’s proximity to a wildlife refuge and claiming that the FAA did not carry out a proper impact assessment as required by the National Environmental Policy Act. Cybernews Reuters New York Times
Japan Issues Draft Voluntary Guidelines for Commercial AI Development. The Japanese government has issued draft guidelines for commercial development of AI in a proposal that seeks to avoid excessive limitations while promoting safety and transparency. A government AI strategy meeting released the guidelines while also announcing $1.1 billion in AI-related funding in the 2024 fiscal year budget, more than tripling the amount spent in 2023. The government guidelines, which are not legally binding, are intended as a model for self-regulation by companies, and feature principles on issues like human rights and discrimination. Other provisions include asking AI platform developers to reveal the purpose of algorithms and possible risks. The guidelines also recommend third-party audits and urge service vendors to alert users that they are using AI. Future discussions will center on how to provide information on the development of the technology without jeopardizing proprietary data. Some AI developers are concerned about their competitive advantages if disclosure requirements are too broad. Hideki Murai, special adviser to the prime minister, offered the assurance that the government will “consider ways to ensure that companies that follow the guidelines do not suffer losses.” Nikkei Asia
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