10:30 AM ET, Monday, October 9, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
THE TOP STORIES:
Hamas Launches Surprise Attack on Israel. The Palestinian militant group Hamas launched a major attack on Israel on Saturday. Over 800 Israelis and 500 Palestinians have reportedly been killed. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Israeli forces are imposing a total blockade on utilities and food and fuel supplies to Gaza as part of a “complete siege” on the territory. Hamas says it has taken hostages. Israeli officials say Americans are among the hostages. The U.S. State Department said nine Americans were killed in Israel and that other U.S. citizens are still missing. Senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah say officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps played a major role in plotting and planning the attack, though U.S. officials a direct connection has yet to be made. Iran’s U.N. mission has said Tehran was not involved. Sources say Hamas employed a careful deception campaign to mislead Israel into believing that the militant group was not ready for a fight. The group’s public signals showed it was not willing for a confrontation with Israel and more focused on ensuring access for workers in Gaza, while in reality the group was preparing for the attack. The U.S. has pledged aid to Israel and moved military forces, including the USS Gerald Ford carrier strike group, near Israel in response to the attacks. CNN Defense News Reuters Wall Street Journal
Schumer Meets With China’s President Xi. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer met with Chinese President Xi Jinping one-on-one today. Schumer is leading a Congressional delegation to Beijing. Schumer told Xi and other Chinese officials that competition between the U.S. and China is expected but that Washington doesn’t want to decouple with China. However, he said Beijing “must provide a level playing field” for American companies doing business in China and that most Americans “believe we do not have that fairness now.” He also called for accountability of Chinese companies involved in the fentanyl crisis, as well as raised concerns over China’s ties with Russia and China's human rights record. Xi reportedly said that despite some “wind and rain at times” in U.S.-China relations, the logic of peaceful coexistence has not changed. Bloomberg New York Times NPR
China Nearly Nuclear Submarine ‘Breakthrough.’ Analysts and regional defense attaches say that evidence is mounting that China is on track to have its Type 096 ballistic missile submarine operational before the end of the decade, with breakthroughs partially aided by Russian technology. Research at the U.S. Naval War College assessed that the new vessel would feature advanced pump-jet propulsion and innovative quieting devices based on “imitative innovation” of Russian technology. Researchers noted that the new Type 096 submarines will compare to Russian counterparts in terms of stealth, sensors, and weapons. Reuters
China Appoints New Communist Party Science Ministry Chief. China has appointed Yin Hejun, a former deputy chief of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, to serve as the new Communist Party head of the Ministry of Science and Technology. Yin reportedly has experience in administration and has a background in radiophysics and atmospheric physics. Yin served as deputy commander of the Chang’e lunar exploration project, and in 2008 was the deputy mission commander for the Shenzhou 7 crewed mission. He was named vice-mayor of Beijing in 2017, and later returned to the science academy to become deputy party secretary in 2020. China’s Ministry of Science and Technology is crucial in the drive for high-tech self-reliance, and was restructured in March so that it could center its attention on innovation and scientific development. South China Morning Post
New Strategic Metal Ore Discovered in Inner Mongolia Could “Make China Self-Sufficient.” Geologists from the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) have discovered a new type of ore in the world’s biggest rare earth deposit, the Bayan Obo in Inner Mongolia, called niobium ore. Dubbed niobobaotite, the ore is a strategic metal used in the steel industry and in the production of oil and gas pipelines, construction materials, jet engines, and propeller blades. Researchers say it also has applications for superconducting magnets for both MRI machines and particle accelerators, as well as lithium battery development. Brazil currently accounts for almost 89% of the output of niobium. The discovery could help China, which imports 95% of its niobium, become self-sufficient. South China Morning Post
North Korea-Russia Rail Traffic Surges. Satellite imagery from the Center for Strategic and International Studies showed an “unprecedented” surge in rail traffic between Russia and North Korea. The images showed 73 freight cars at the Tumangang Rail Station in the North Korean border city of Rason, marking the highest rail traffic in the past five years. Analysts say the increase in rail traffic is likely North Korea supplying arms, specifically munitions, to Russia. The images come a month after a summit on military matters between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Reuters
THE UKRAINE UPDATE:
Air Force Says Ukraine Expects Record Number of Drone Attacks this Winter, Assaults on Energy Facilities. Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat said Sunday that Kyiv is expecting a record number of Russian drone attacks on its territory this winter. Ihnat reported that more than Russia used 500 Iranian Shahed drones last month, whereas last year, Moscow's air strike campaign used around 1,000 Shahed drones on Ukrainian soil in six months. Last winter, many cities were forced to ration hot water and electricity due to Russia’s recurrent, damaging attacks on Ukraine’s energy facilities and power grid, which has still not recovered completely from last year. Reuters France 24
Russian Shelling Kills Two in Kherson as Fighting Continues Elsewhere. Ukrainian officials said that at least two people were killed and a dozen wounded by Russian shelling in the southern region of Kherson and other areas of the country on Sunday. The General Staff of Ukraine's armed forces added that soldiers had rebuffed assaults on five sectors of the 600-mile front, including Bakhmut, and General Oleksandr Syrskyi of Ukraine's ground forces said troops were making progress on the eastern front. Russia claimed its units had pushed back attacks close to Bakhmut, and farther north. The spokesperson for Ukrainian forces in the south, Oleksandr Shtupun, said Russia has begun using older equipment, including howitzers and cannons, in an indication that Ukrainian forces have been successful in destroying enemy weaponry. Reuters
Belarus’s Lukashenko says U.S. “Pushing” Russia Toward Use of Nuclear Weapons by Supporting Ukraine. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Friday that the U.S. is “pushing” Russians toward the use of nuclear weapons by arming Ukraine. Speaking during a visit to a military facility in the Brest region, Lukashenko added that shipments of long-range missiles from the West to Ukraine could escalate the situation. Lukashenko added that a missile attack on Russian soil will lead to a potentially “colossal” response and suggested Russian nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus could be involved. Russian parliamentary leaders are reportedly discussing revoking ratification of a treaty banning nuclear tests. CNN
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN:
Russia-Affiliated Hackers Claim DoS Attacks on Israeli Government, Media Websites. Israeli government websites are experiencing denial-of-service cyberattacks by hacktivists, including the Russia-affiliated Killnet group, in the aftermath of the massive armed assault by Hamas militants. The gov.il website was inaccessible Sunday evening, a cyber action claimed by Killnet in a post to the hacked website: "Israeli government, you are responsible for this bloodshed. Back in 2022, you supported the terrorist regime in Ukraine. You betrayed Russia. Today, Killnet officially informs you of this! All government systems of Israel will be subject to our attacks!" The Anonymous Sudan hacktivists, long thought to be affiliated with Russia, sided with Hamas and Killnet on Telegram. Anonymous launched an cyber denial attack on the website of the Jerusalem Post Sunday. The newspaper posted a message on X: “The Jerusalem Post has been targeted by multiple cyberattacks this morning causing our site to crash.” It added, “we'll be back soon and will continue to be the top source of information on Operation Swords of Iron and the murderous attacks by Hamas.” On the day of the Hamas attack, Anonymous Sudan claimed to have targeted Israel’s Iron Dome and also claimed to have disrupted Israel’s Alert applications. Cybernews
Taiwan To Develop Backup Satellite Communications Network for Emergency Use. Taiwan’s Telecom Technology Centre (TTC) is developing a redundant satellite network to sustain links to the outside world in the event of hostilities with China. It is widely assumed that a key target of the People’s Liberation Army would be telecommunications networks. The $17 million project plans to create an initial network of 773 satellite internet hotspots by the end of 2024. The TTC will put in place 11 non-geostationary orbit satellite hotspots and five links for cellular satellite backhauls this year, with more planned for 2024. The telecommunications assets will help sustain government and public communications services such as video conferences, Internet phone calls, and other communications modes in the event of war or other emergencies. Tsai Ming-yen, director of Taiwan’s National Security Bureau, told a legislature session that motivation for the backup network stemmed from the severing in February of two undersea cables linking Taiwan and the Matsu defense facility. Tsai said the satellite backup system would strengthen the resilience of Taiwan’s communications. South China Morning Post
U.S. Legislators Call To Impose Export Controls on RISC-V Technology to China. Senate and House legislators, citing national security grounds, are urging the Biden administration to prevent U.S. companies from involvement in Chinese production of RISC-V chip technology. Senators Marco Rubio and Mark Warner, and two House members, are concerned that Beijing is taking advantage of a tradition of open collaboration among American companies on behalf of its own semiconductor industry. They believe U.S. openness could erode current U.S. chip sector leads and possibly aid the modernization of China’s military. RISC-V is a key technology for a range of applications, from smartphone chips to advanced AI processors. The legislators are mounting the first major effort to limit RISC-V work by U.S. companies. Representative Mike Gallagher told Reuters that he believes any U.S. entity should be required to obtain an export license from the Commerce Department "prior to engaging with PRC (People's Republic of China) entities on RISC-V technology." Another congressman, Michael McCaul, said "the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) is abusing RISC-V to get around U.S. dominance of the intellectual property needed to design chips.” McCaul has called for action on the issue by the Bureau of Industry and Security, the Commerce Department component that manages export-control regulations. He said he would pursue legislation if that does not occur. Sen. Rubio explained his position, noting that "Communist China is developing open-source chip architecture to dodge our sanctions and grow its chip industry. If we don't broaden our export controls to include this threat, China will one day surpass us as the global leader in chip design." Reuters
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