10:00 AM ET, Monday, October 30, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
THE TOP STORIES
Americans in Lebanon Urged to Leave. The U.S. State Department released a statement on Friday calling for all American citizens remaining in Lebanon to evacuate and return to the U.S., telling them to leave “while commercial flights remain available, due to the unpredictable security situation.” This statement comes after increasing tensions between the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Israeli military. Fears of an all-out war between the two have increased since October 7th. The State Department told Americans who planned to remain in Lebanon that they should “have a plan of action for crisis situations that does not rely on US government assistance. The best time to leave a country is before a crisis if at all possible.” Al Jazeera
Biden Introduces First-Ever Executive Order on AI Regulation. President Joe Biden is signing a much-anticipated executive order on artificial intelligence (AI) regulation on Monday. The White House released a fact sheet outlining details about the order. It’s main transparency-boosting provision requires AI developers to share critical internal testing information with the government. Developers working on models that pose serious risks to public health and safety, the economy and national security will have to notify the federal government about training and share results of red-team safety tests before making the model public. The notification goes beyond voluntary reporting commitments and requires notification in accordance with the Defense Production Act. Officials say this requirement will apply to future models that go beyond a specific impute paler threshold and that existing tools will not be restricted. The order is also tackling by deepfakes by directing the Commerce Department to develop content authentication tools and watermarking guidance for federal agencies. The order also addresses privacy issues, equity and civil rights concerns, and aims to foster innovation and competition in AI development. White House deputy chief of staff Bruce Reed called the order “the strongest set of actions any government in the world has ever taken on AI safety, security and trust.” However, the Biden administration is still calling on Congress to pass additional legislation governing AI safety. Axios Bloomberg The Hill The White House
China Criticizes West But Calls for Stronger Military Ties with U.S. Chinese Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia criticized the West at a security forum in Beijing on Monday, but he also called for better military ties between China and the U.S. Zhang told the Xiangshan Forum that “some countries” are trying to undermine the Chinese government and “keep stirring up trouble around the world” by meddling in other countries’ affairs and instigating “color revolutions.” He did not name any specific countries, but his remarks come amid heightened tensions with the U.S. Despite this, he emphasized the importance of developing military ties with Washington “on the basis of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation.” The U.S. defense department’s delegation to the forum expressed willingness to engage. Chad Spragia, a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for China, said, “It’s important for the U.S. to be here and not to cede the space to others. We’re here and we’re listening.” Reuters Bloomberg Washington Post
China's Foreign Minister Says Path to Xi-Biden Meeting Won’t Be ‘Smooth.’ Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Sunday that “the road to the San Francisco summit will not be a smooth one”, in reference to the expected meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden. Wang met with Biden and his top aides in recent days and agreed to work together toward the expected bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. This comes as a plethora of bilateral diplomatic engagements in recent months, largely at the U.S. request to hopefully salvage deteriorating ties between the two countries after the U.S. downing of a Chinese spy balloon. Wang said that China and the U.S. needed to “return to Bali”, referring to the last meeting between Biden and Xi. He added that Washington and Beijing must put into practice the consensus achieved then, “remove interference, overcome obstacles, enhance consensus and gather outcomes”. He also noted that both the U.S. and China have sent out positive signals for stabilizing and improving relations. Reuters
ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR
Israel Expands Ground Offensive in Gaza for ‘Second Stage’ of Conflict. Israel’s military is intensifying its ground offensive in Gaza. Israeli soldiers have reportedly pushed at least 2 miles deep into Gaza from the territory’s western coast. Israeli tanks were seen rolling in both on the eastern side of Gaza City and on Gaza’s Mediterranean coast to the west. The Al-Qassam Brigades, the armed wing of Hamas operations, claimed on Sunday to have attacked Israeli tanks in northwest Gaza. Israeli forces also continued air strikes on Gaza, claiming to have hit over 600 militant targets in the past few days.
Israeli defense forces claimed on Saturday to have killed Asem Abu Rakaba, head of Hamas’s aerial array, in an airstrike in Gaza. Israel says Rakaba oversaw the drone strikes and use of paragliders in Hamas’s October 7 attacks on Israel. Israel’s military claims it has also killed other Hamas generals and commanders in charge of the group’s naval and aerial forces in air strikes that hit 150 underground targets in Gaza. Hamas has not commented on these claims.
Israeli military spokesperson Daniel Hagari told reporters, “We are gradually expanding the ground activity and the scope of our forces in the Gaza Strip. We will do everything we can from the air, sea, and land to ensure the safety of our forces and achieve the goals of the war.” Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday called the offensive “our second War of Independence,” acknowledging the expanding ground operations but stopping short of calling it an invasion. He added that this “second stage” of the conflict would be “long and difficult” with the end goal of destroying “Hamas' governing and military capabilities and to bring the hostages home.” Defense Minister Yoav Gallant echoed his remarks, noting that “this will not be a short war.” Reuters Associated Press New York Times Wall Street Journal
Netanyahu Criticizes Intelligence Chiefs Over Hamas Attacks. On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu posted a comment on the social media platform X, formerly Twitter, criticizing his own intelligence chiefs for not warning him about the Hamas attacks on October 7th. He said in the post that “at no time and no stage was a warning given” by Israeli intelligence about the attacks and that “all security officials, including the head of army intelligence and the head of the Shin Bet, estimated that Hamas was deterred and interested in an arrangement.” The post reportedly caused an uproar in his war cabinet. Opposition leader Yair Lapid said the post “crossed a red line” and was an attempt to “evade responsibility and place blame on the security establishment” for the attacks. Netanyahu later retracted the statement and issued a rare apology. Netanyahu has come under fire in recent weeks for not taking responsibility for what many are calling an intelligence and operations failure over the Hamas attacks. Reuters
Thousands of Gaza Residents Near ‘Breaking Point,’ Break Into U.N. Warehouses. On Sunday, thousands of Palestinians in Gaza broke into U.N. warehouses around the territory, taking boxes of flour and other crucial supplies. The U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) said, “This is a worrying sign that civil order is starting to break down after three weeks of war and a tight siege on Gaza.” Critical aid has been in short supply in the enclave due to Israeli air strikes and Israel’s blockade of the territory. Aid is being transferred through the Rafah crossing from Egypt, but the U.N. and aid groups have deemed the deliveries insufficient to meet Gaza’s humanitarian needs. Reuters
International Criminal Court May Deem Impeding Supply Deliveries to Gaza a Crime. Karim Khan, a top prosecutor from the International Criminal Court (ICC), told reporters on Sunday that impeding aid to Gaza may constitute a crime. Khan also told reporters that Israel must now make “discernable efforts, without further delay, to make sure civilians receive basic foods, medicine.” Khan made his comments after an unannounced visit to the Rafah border crossing. The U.N. has already stated that the current rate of aid deliveries to Gaza is insufficient to meet the needs of the territory’s population. The ICC has been investigating in the occupied Palestinian territories since 2021 for possible war crimes and crimes against humanity from 2014. Israel has previously rejected the court’s jurisdiction and has refused to participate in investigations. Reuters Al Jazeera
US, Egypt Pledge to Increase Gaza Aid, Agree Against Displacement of Palestinians into Sinai. The White House announced that U.S. President Joe Biden and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi agreed to increase the amount of aid delivered into the Gaza Strip. The two also agreed that Palestinians in Gaza should not be displaced into Egypt. Sisi has long rejected the prospect of Palestinians entering the Sinai Peninsula amid the Israel-Hamas conflict. Other Arab nations have also rejected relocation, emphasizing a two-state solution as the only way to achieve lasting peace. Reuters Bloomberg
Iran Denies Links to Hamas Attacks and Denies Targeting U.S. Forces. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian on Sunday denied claims that Iran was aware of Hamas intentions prior to its October 7th attacks and called any ties connecting Tehran to the attacks “baseless.” He also said that it is “totally wrong” to blame Iran for recent attacks on U.S. forces in the region, saying that those behind such attacks “are not receiving orders from us.” His remarks come after at least 19 separate attacks by Iranian-backed operatives against U.S. and coalition troops in Iraq and Syria in the past week. Amirabdollahian also said Iran wants the current Israel-Hamas conflict to be contained and does not want it to “spread out” to the wider region. Reuters
French Army Minister to Visit Lebanon. French army minister Sebastien Lecornu is expected to meet with officials in Lebanon on, including Prime Minister Najib Mikati, and U.N. peacekeepers in the country on Wednesday. Lecornu’s office told news outlet AFP that the minister’s goal is to assert Paris’s "commitment to the stability of Lebanon.” He is set to visit the U.N. peacekeeping force UNIFIL on Thursday. France, the former colonial power of Lebanon, has deployed almost 700 soldiers to the force. This visit comes amid escalating tensions in the region, with Israel and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah insurgent group in Lebanon engaged in near-daily cross-border fighting. Reuters
South Africa Calls for U.N. Force to Protect Gaza Civilians. South Africa is calling on the U.N. to deploy a rapid protection force to protect civilians in Gaza. The South African foreign ministry said the world must show “global accountability” for the number of non-combatants killed in Israeli attacks in Gaza. The call for the U.N. force goes beyond most other nations urging a ceasefire or increased aid into Gaza. South Africa has long supported Palestine, likening its plight with South Africa’s previous apartheid regime. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has offered to help mediate the current Israel-Hamas conflict, and South African officials have reportedly been in contact with Hamas to discuss aid for Gaza. Reuters
Anti-Israel Protesters Mob Airport in Russia’s Dagestan. Russia’s federal aviation agency Rosaviatsia reported on Sunday night that a mob of “unknown people” rushed the tarmac of an airport in Makhachkala, the capital of the Muslim-majority Dagestan region, after a plane from Israel landed. Rosaviatsia reported that it took hours for officials to restore order and clear the premises of hundreds of people, who were rushing the runway, some waving Palestinian flags. Some members of the mob reportedly stopped vehicles outside the airport and searched for Israeli passports. Russia’s interior ministry said authorities detained 60 alleged demonstrators. Health authorities said that 20 people were wounded, including police officers. Sergey Melikov, chief of the Dagestan region, criticized the assault and pledged to carry out an “appropriate assessment.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov added that the incident was “largely the result of outside interference, including information influence.” The Israeli government released a statement saying said it expected Russia to protect its citizens and to “act resolutely against the rioters” as well as against the “incitement directed against Jews and Israelis.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also condemned the unrest, calling videos from the scene “appalling.” U.S. presidential spokesperson Adrienne Watson said the U.S. “vigorously condemns the antisemitic protests.” Washington Post BloombergBBC Reuters
Israel Summons Russian Ambassador to Object to Moscow's Hosting of Hamas. The Israeli Foreign Ministry on Sunday summoned Russian ambassador Anatoly Viktorov to protest Moscow's hosting last week of a delegation from the Palestinian militant group Hamas. The ministry says that allowing Hamas in Russia "sends a message legitimizing terrorism against Israelis.” Though Moscow has said that its invitation to Hamas was done in an effort to keep up a dialogue with both sides in the conflict, Simona Halperin, deputy director of the Foreign Ministry’s Euro-Asia Division, said Israel takes a “serious view” of Russia’s failure to condemn the organization. Russia does not consider Hamas a terrorist group, and last Thursday had talks with Hamas officials and Iranian deputy foreign minister Ali Bagheri Kani. Reuters Times of Israel
Expert Perspective: Former CIA Director Says Skepticism of Gaza Death Toll ‘Fair,’ Raises Critical Questions for Israeli Ground Invasion. Former CIA Director and Cipher Brief Expert General David Petraeus (Ret.) said that it is “fair” to be skeptical of the death toll in the Gaza Strip as reported by Hamas-controlled authorities, citing previous disinformation campaigns about such issues. He highlighted the incident of the explosion at the al-Ahli Arab hospital in Gaza City, which Palestinian officials said was caused by an Israeli air strike and killed 500 Palestinians. Petraeus said intelligence shows that the blast was actually caused by a misfired rocket launched by Palestinian Islamic Jihad and that only 20 people were killed. His remarks back President Joe Biden’s comments on Wednesday that he has “no confidence” about the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, saying over 6,000 Palestinians in Gaza have been killed in Israeli air strikes since the Hamas attacks. Regarding Israel’s ground invasion of Gaza, Petraeus noted that there are still critical issues to address, including who will govern Gaza after the invasion, how to rescue hostages held by Hamas, and how Israeli forces will reduce Palestinian civilian casualties in urban combat. Petraeus emphasized that Israel must “be prepared for the day after the post-conflict phase,” noting how the U.S. “learned the hard way” with its invasion of Iraq. News Nation
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
Russian Missile Attack Injures Two, Damages Ship Yard in Odesa. A Russian missile attack in Ukraine's Odesa region injured two people and damaged buildings in a shipyard on Monday. Odesa Governor Oleh Kiper said the administrative building and equipment at the shipyard were damaged. Ukraine’s military reported that Russia launched drone attacks across southern, central and northern Ukraine overnight. The military said Ukrainian air defenses destroyed 12 drones and 2 missiles over the Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi and Dnipro regions. Reuters Kyiv Independent
Ukraine Holds Peace Summit in Neutral Malta, Russia does not Attend. Ukraine on Saturday held a peace forum in Malta, where more than 60 national security advisers and dozens of nations gathered to discuss Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s 10-point Peace Formula for the war, which calls for an end to all hostilities, reparations, the release of prisoners, and complete withdrawal of Russian troops. The summit also sought to bring attention to the conflict in Ukraine and get support, as the war in Israel has directed the global focus away from Kyiv. An EU official said that Russia, China, Egypt, and the UAE did not attend the forum. Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the forum was “a blatantly anti-Russian event.” Though no official list of representatives was provided, officials said they included delegates from Asian, African, Arab, European, and South American nations. Officials said they seek to hold a global peace summit later this year. Reuters New York Times
Moscow Will Confiscate EU Assets if EU 'Steals' Frozen Russian Funds, Putin Ally Says. Russian Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin, an ally of President Vladimir Putin, said yesterday that Russia will confiscate assets belonging to European Union countries it deems unfriendly if the EU “steals” from frozen Russian assets to provide assistance to Ukraine. Volodin’s comments come two days after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EC is developing a proposal to pool some of the proceeds derived from frozen Russian assets, valued at $223.15 billion, to help Ukraine in postwar reconstruction. Volodin said that if the EU adopts such a plan, Russia’s response regarding European assets would be “symmetrical.” Reuters
Belarus' Lukashenko Calls for End of War Negotiations, says Conflict at Impasse. Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, a controversial ally to Russian President Vladimir Putin, said that Russia and Ukraine are at a deadlock and must meet for talks to end the war and stop the bloodshed. Speaking about the stalemate on a video published by the Belarusian state news agency BelTA, Lukashenko said that forces are entrenched, and that neither side can “substantively strengthen or advance their position.” He urged Moscow and Kyiv to come to the “negotiating table” and put an end to the conflict. On Saturday, President Volodymyr Zelensky reaffirmed in his peace formula that stability can only be secured if his nation’s territorial integrity is restored and all Russian forces removed. Reuters
Pyongyang Says Relationship with Russia Will Soon Reach ‘New Higher Phase.’ North Korean officials released a statement on Friday declaring their “steadfast will” to expand ties with Russia to maintain security in the region. North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui also criticized the alliance between the U.S., South Korea, and Japan. The three countries have recently criticized joint arms deals between Russia and North Korea, which North Korea denied in Friday’s statements. The Foreign Minister also told reporters that the alliance between the North and Russia would reach a “new higher phase” once deals made during the September meeting of Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin were implemented. Reuters
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
Internet, Phone Communications Partially Restored in Gaza After Extended Blackout. Internet and telephone communications were partially restored in Gaza Sunday after a near-total blackout lasting more than 24 hours. The communications outage reportedly severely hampered rescue and relief operations in the Palestinian territory. The chief military spokesperson for Israel declined to comment on whether IDF forces targeted communications infrastructure, but said that Israel would do what is necessary to protect its forces. Journalists in Gaza posted videos after Internet connectivity was partially restored early Sunday, according to cybersecurity monitoring group NetBlocks. Reuters Washington Post Jerusalem Post
Musk Offers Starlink Though Gaza Aid Groups Lack Needed Equipment. Elon Musk announced on X that SpaceX will support satellite communications through Starlink Internet terminals for international aid groups in Gaza. However, users in Gaza would need to obtain Starlink dishes to connect to the satellite network. SpaceX did not respond to a Reuters' inquiry on how the company would ensure Starlink connections would be used by aid organizations and not by Hamas. Responding to Musk's offer, Israel's communication minister Shlomo Karhi said Israel "will use all means at its disposal to fight this." Reuters
LockBit Claims ‘Tremendous Amount’ of Data Taken from Boeing System Breach. The LockBit ransomware gang claims that it breached Boeing computer systems and extracted what has been described as a “tremendous amount” of sensitive data. The claim by the Russia-linked threat actor was made Friday afternoon on its dark web leak site. LockBit gave Boeing until November 2 to meet its unspecified ransom demand, promising that “we will not send lists or samples to protect the company BUT we will not keep it like that until the deadline.” “ The group also posted, “all available data will be published!" The hackers said the system breach was accomplished through a a zero-day exploit, with no details on the claimed vulnerability. A Boeing spokesperson told Reuters "we are assessing this claim.” Cybernews Reuters
Reuters Reports G7 Voluntary Code for AI Developers To Be Issued Monday. A document reviewed by Reuters indicates that the G7 member states will agree on Monday to an AI Code of Conduct for companies involved in advanced AI system development. The voluntary code will establish standards for the governance of AI by major industrial countries. The 11-point code provides guidelines for voluntary compliance by the world’s most advanced AI developers, including foundation models and generative AI systems. The code aims “to seize the benefits and address the risks and challenges brought by these technologies". In addition, the code calls on AI firms to make public the capabilities, limitations and the use and misuse of AI systems as well as to invest in robust security controls. Reuters
Chinese Memory Chip Maker Achieves ‘Surprise Leap’ in 3D NAND Chip Manufacture. China’s leading memory chip producer, Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. (YMTC), reportedly has manufactured an industry-leading 3D NAND chip described as a “surprise technology leap.” The chip, incorporated into a solid-state device in July, is evidence that YMTC has continued advanced technology development despite being placed on the U.S. Commerce Department’s Entity List. According to the TechInsights semiconductor analysis firm, the 3D NAND chip advance is similar to the breakthrough recently reported in the Huawei Mate 60 smartphone processor. TechInsights says “evidence is mounting that China’s momentum to overcome trade restrictions and build its own domestic semiconductor supply chain is more successful than expected.” TechInsights’ report did not indicate if YMTC’s memory chips have been produced with Chinese-manufactured tools and components exclusively. South China Morning Post
Lazarus Repeatedly Probes Developer To Steal Source Code, Set Up Supply Chain Attack. North Korea’s Lazarus hacking gang overcame multiple developer patches and warnings by repeatedly exploiting vulnerabilities in a software vendor system. The multiple attacks against a single target suggests that Lazarus attempted to steal source code or carry out a supply chain attack. The Kaspersky cybersecurity firm discovered the compromise in July and said Lazarus continued to probe a software vendor’s system even as the gang targeted other software manufacturers. The exact method Lazarus used for the system compromise is unknown although Kaspersky reported that the gang focused on security software used for web communications encryption. Lazarus was able to deploy SIGNBT malware along with shellcode to inject a payload into memory for stealthy execution. SIGNBT uses distinct strings to send information about the compromised system and receive commands for execution. BleepingComputer
Ukraine’s ‘IT Army’ Reports Disruption of Russian Internet Firms in Occupied Areas. Ukraine’s IT Army claimed on Telegram over the weekend that their hactivists conducted distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks against three Russian Internet providers in occupied territories, temporarily taking them offline. The IT Army online statement described the action as “yet another blow by our cyber army disrupting enemy military communication at the frontlines.” Russian Internet providers reported Friday that an “unprecedented level” of DDoS attacks had been launched by Ukrainian hackers, affecting cellular networks, phone communications, and Internet links. One of the providers, Miranda-media, reported 80 percent restoration on Friday, including services provided to law enforcement agencies, government organizations, and “socially significant services.” Internet connections in certain Crimean areas were still disrupted on Saturday as operators continued recovery efforts. The Record
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
U.S, South Korea Kick Off Joint Air Drills. The U.S. and South Korea began joint air exercises today, involving 130 warplanes. The annual drills, called Vigilant Defense, will run until Friday. The South Korean military said South Korea will maintain the ability to “strongly punish any provocation by the enemy through intense training simulating an actual situation.” The drills follow joint combat exercises involving drones and wearable laser sensors, announced by the South Korean military on Saturday. The training is part of annual Hoguk autumn exercises to deal with North Korean nuclear and missile threats. Reuters Reuters
Russia's Shoigu Accuses West of Expansion of Ukraine War into Asia-Pacific. Russia state news agency TASS reported that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu told the Xiangshan Forum on Monday that the West seeks to expand the conflict in Ukraine to the Asia-Pacific region. Shoigu said NATO is covering up its military buildup in the Asia-Pacific with an “ostentatious desire for dialogue” and that the emergence of new security blocs such as the Quad and AUKUS undermine the role of the Association of Southeastern Asian Nations (ASEAN) and nuclear non-proliferation efforts in the region. He also explained that Russia’s move to pull out of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty does not mean the end of the agreement and that Russia is not lowering its threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, adding that Moscow is “only seeking to restore parity with the United States, who have not ratified this treaty.” Reuters Associated Press Washington Post
Chinese Communist Party Delegation Visits Solomon Islands. Chinese state media reported yesterday that a Chinese Communist Party delegation visited the Solomon Islands over the weekend to show how diplomatic ties are benefiting both countries. The delegation, led by the party’s deputy head of the international department Guo Yezhou, met with Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare, as well as the country’s foreign minister and the energy minister. The two countries upgraded their ties to a “comprehensive strategic partnership” when Sogavare met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Beijing in July. Reuters
Turkey F-16 Sale Not a Done Deal, Despite Progress on Sweden’s NATO Bid. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan submitted ratification protocols for NATO acceptance of Sweden to his parliament this week, but it is not clear whether that will be enough to secure Ankara’s planned $20 billion purchase of 40 new F-16 fighters from the U.S. Key U.S. lawmakers have voiced concerns unrelated to the accession of Sweden to NATO. The chairs and ranking members of the foreign affairs committees in both the House and senate can place holds on arms sales unilaterally, and as of now at least two of them will not commit to signing off on the sale. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair Ben Cardin (D-MD) told reporters last week he is pleased to see Turkey moving positively on Sweden’s bid to join NATO, but he cited “other issues that we evaluate on arms sales,” including use of the weapons systems and human rights issues. Cardin said that before deciding anything, he wants to hear from the Biden Administration. A spokesperson for House Foreign Affairs Committee Ranking Member Gregory Meeks (D-NY) said Meeks looks forward to Turkey’s ratification of Sweden’s NATO bid, but also called for cooperation on other matters including the cessation of attacks on U.S. partners in the region, cooperation on “countering illicit financial flows” and a de-escalation of tensions in the Aegean. Senate Foreign Relations Ranking Republican James Risch (R-ID) said he too has concerns, but that he may still okay the F-16 sale if Turkey ratifies NATO membership for Sweden. Defense News
U.S. Developing New Nuclear Gravity Bomb. The U.S. Department of Defense announced Friday that it is continuing the development of a new B61 nuclear gravity bomb. The Pentagon said in an announcement that the new B61-13 would have a similar yield to the old B61-7 and replace some of the older versions. The department said that the decision to develop this weapon reflects the changing security environment in line with the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review which noted that the U.S. had to modernize its nuclear forces in order to deter the two main nuclear competitors China and Russia. The Pentagon also said that the creation of this bomb would not increase the overall nuclear stockpile. Defense News
U.S. Halts Export Licenses for Civilian Firearms. On Friday, the U.S. Department of Commerce released a statement announcing a 90-day halt on the issuing of export licenses for civilian firearms not intended for governmental usage. The Department did not issue any further statements regarding the reasoning behind the pause other than assessing the “risk of firearms being diverted to entities or activities that promote regional instability, violate human rights, or fuel criminal activities.” Exempt from the halt are export licenses to Ukraine, Israel, and other close allies. Reuters
Opinion: Xi is Not About to Attack Taiwan. Bonnie Glaser, Managing Director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund of the U.S., writes in The New York Times that despite China’s “bluster,” Beijing’s leadership harbors “significant misgivings” about whether the country’s military could take control of Taiwan at an acceptable cost, and those doubts have been reinforced by Russia’s military failures in Ukraine. Therefore, a Chinese attempt to take control of Taiwan is not inevitable and may not even be likely in the next few years, giving the U.S. and Taiwan time to reinforce the island’s military capabilities. Glaser goes on to say that recent purges of senior Chinese generals hint at President Xi Jinping’s lack of confidence in China’s military. Glaser says another factor that may deter China is that bipartisan support for Taiwan in the U.S. has never been stronger. President Joe Biden has also suggested that the U.S. will support Taiwan militarily if China attacks. Glaser cautions, however, that there are scenarios under which Xi might feel compelled to take military action – for example, if Taiwan’s government pushes for a formal declaration of independence. New York Times
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