10:00 AM ET, Monday, October 2, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
TOP STORIES:
Biden Reassures US Will Maintain Ukraine Funding After Omission From Spending Bill. President Biden expressed continuing support for aid to Ukraine Sunday, saying that the US “cannot under any circumstances” allow aid to be interrupted. Following the Congressional vote over the weekend to approve a stopgap funding bill that does not include additional assistance for Ukraine, Biden said “there is not much time, and there’s an overwhelming sense of urgency,” but he said an “overwhelming number” of both Democrats and Republicans favor continued support. The bill does continue funding at current levels for 45 days, and the Pentagon has the authority to designate approximately $5.6 billion worth of arms and equipment from existing stockpiles to the Ukrainian war effort. Ukrainian officials say US assistance to their country is not in jeopardy despite the Congressional vote. Andriy Yermak, head of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s office, said Ukraine’s key partners are determined to continue their support, and that the Ukrainian delegation returned from the US “with clear confidence that there are no changes in support.” Ukrainian Ambassador to the US Oksana Marakova said Saturday that there is no threat to delivery of previously approved weapons and equipment, and that there remains bipartisan support for Ukraine in both houses of Congress. Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko said Sunday that US support “remains intact” and that Ukrainian authorities are working with US officials to see that the next US budget contains help for Ukraine. In a recorded speech marking Ukraine’s Defenders Day holiday, Zelensky did not comment on the status of US aid, but he reiterated his determination to continue to fight until final victory. Washington Post New York Times Al Jazeera Associated Press Financial Times Reuters Reuters
U.S. Central Command Raid Captures Islamic State Official in Syria. U.S. Central Command said on Sunday that it captured Islamic State facilitator Mamduh Ibrahim al-Haji Shaykh in a helicopter raid in northern Syria on Thursday. This came after Central Command said last week that it captured Abu Halil al-Fad'ani, an ISIS Syria Operational Facilitation official, in a raid on September 25. Central Command reports that no civilians were killed or injured during both operations. Reuters
NATO Bolsters Forces In Kosovo as US Urges Serbia to Withdraw From Border. NATO announced Friday that it is increasing its peacekeeping force in northern Kosovo amid increased tensions between Kosovo and Serbia and called on Serbia to withdraw a buildup of its military along the border. Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti said a NATO presence is necessary because the border with Serbia is long and the Serbian military has been increasing in strength. Kurti added that Serbia has received “a lot of military equipment” from both Russia and China. Kurti discussed the situation with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, after which a readout of the phone call said the White House emphasized U.S. readiness to work with its allies to ensure NATO’s Kosovo Force (KFOR) has what it needs to fulfill its mission. White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Secretary of State Antony Blinken called Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic to urge “immediate de-escalation” and engage in dialogue. Kosovar Foreign Minister Donika Gervalla-Schwarz said on Monday that this is the most significant Serbian military-buildup “in recent years,” adding that the concentration of troops combined with Belgrade’s rhetoric and “methods” recalls Russia’s behavior towards Ukraine before its invasion. Al Jazeera Politico Reuters
U.K.’s Sunak Says No Plans for Britain to Send Troops to Ukraine. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said Sunday that there are no current plans to deploy military instructors to Ukraine, pulling back from previous comments made by his defense minister. British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said in an interview on Friday that he spoke with army leaders about deploying British military advisors to Ukraine to train Ukrainian troops. He said the move would help reduce reliance on U.K. and other NATO members’ bases for training. Shapps also said he spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky about British naval vessels potentially defending commercial vessels from attacks in the Black Sea. The moves would mark a significant escalation in the U.K.’s involvement in defending Ukraine against Russia’s invasion. Sunak said the U.K. has been training Ukrainian troops in British territory “for a long time,” but Shapps’s suggestions about a British presence in Ukraine is “something for the long term, not the here and now.” Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Sunday that any British soldiers training Ukrainian troops would be legitimate targets for Russian forces. Britain has previously provided a five-week training course to around 20,000 Ukrainians over the past year and intends to train more going forward. Politico Reuters The Guardian
Philippines, Allies Start Joint Naval Drills. The Philippines, U.S., Britain, Canada and Japan started two weeks of joint naval exercises in Philippine waters on Monday in a “show of force” amid escalating tensions in the region. Over 1,800 personnel will participate in this year’s “Sama Sama” drills, which is being held off Manila and the southern part of Luzon. The Philippine navy said the exercises will include anti-submarine warfare, air defense, electronic warfare and search and rescue drills. The U.S. is sending two vessels to the drills, and Britain, Canada and Japan are each sending one. Australia, France, Indonesia and New Zealand are joining by sending observers and experts. Philippine navy chief Rear Admiral Toribio Adaci said the drills symbolizes the participants’ “enduring partnerships” and “shared commitment” to stability in the region. Vice Admiral Karl Thomas, commander of the U.S. Navy’s Seventh Fleet, added that the drills underscore the importance of an open and free West Philippine Sea, referring to the part of the South China Sea claimed by Manila. The drills come after a row between China and the Philippines over a floating barrier installed by Beijing at the disputed Scarborough Shoal. Barron’s Reuters
THE UKRAINE UPDATE:
Russian Shelling Hits Kherson After Strikes on Eastern, Southern Ukraine. Ukrainian officials said on Monday that overnight Russian shelling of Ukraine’s southern Kherson region killed at least one person and injured another six. Kherson governor Oleksandr Prokudin said Russia launched 71 attacks in the last 24 hours “aimed at residential districts,” commercial areas and medical infrastructure in the region, adding that 20 air and land attacks targeted Kherson city. The attacks came after Ukraine’s military said Russia launched missile and rocket attacks on over 100 settlements in eastern Ukraine on Friday and at least 50 drone attacks in southern Ukraine on Saturday. Officials said drone strikes hit industrial infrastructure in the central Cherkasy region and civilian infrastructure and warehouses in the eastern Dnipropetrovsk region and southern Mykolaiv region. CNN CNN Reuters
Ukrainian Drone Strikes Hit Sochi and Smolensk. Ukrainian drone strikes on Sunday morning reportedly hit Russian targets in both Sochi and Smolensk. Smoke and explosions were reported near Sochi’s Alder airbase. An aircraft factory, part of Russia’s Tactical Missile Armament program, in Smolensk also seems to have been targeted around the same time. Flights out of Sochi were reportedly canceled due to the attacks. Kyiv Independent Newsweek
EU Foreign Ministers Meet in Ukraine. E.U. foreign ministers met in Kyiv on Monday for their first ever gathering outside the bloc. E.U. foreign policy chief Josep Borrell touted the meeting as an “historic event” that sends a strong “message of support” for Ukraine. Borrell added that the bloc will maintain its commitments of support to Kyiv and will study Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s peace plan. Borrell also said that the Kyiv gathering is “informal” since it is being held outside of the E.U. and is “considered a high level political debate” that does not have the aim of reaching agreed conclusions or decisions. The meeting comes as a pro-Russian candidate won elections in Slovakia and after the U.S. Congress left Ukraine military aid out of its latest spending bill. While all 27 E.U. member states sent representatives to the meeting, only 23 sent their foreign ministers, in contrast to Borrell’s claim that all E.U. foreign ministers would be present. Latvia and Sweden sent its state secretaries to Kyiv, while Poland’s deputy minister and Hungary’s deputy state secretary attended the meeting. CNN Reuters
Zelensky Announces Ukraine Defense Industries Alliance. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Saturday revealed a new industrial alliance to bolster Ukraine’s defense industry. Zelensky unveiled the initiative at the Defense Industries Forum in Kyiv, which was reportedly attended by representatives from around 250 defense companies and over 30 countries including the U.S., U.K., France, Germany, Turkey, Sweden, and the Czech Republic. NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg, who spoke by video link during the forum, noted that the alliance has significantly depleted its stocks from supporting Ukraine, underscoring the importance of the initiative to boost Ukraine’s own military manufacturing to both meet its needs and support NATO deterrence. Zelensky said that Kyiv has the potential to realize its "maximum armed power" and become one of the biggest global producers of defense systems and weapons and that the industrial alliance is the first step towards joining manufacturers who “share our intention to provide protection against aggression in the risky conditions of today." He added that the 13 companies have already joined the initiative and are prepared to construct a “new arsenal for defense.” Radio Free Europe Associated Press
Romanian Radar Detects Airspace Breach During Russian Drone Attack. Romanian air defense radar detected a possible breach of Romanian airspace during a Russian drone strike against Ukrainian territory. The incident reportedly occurred near the Romanian border early Saturday. The Romanian Ministry of Defense said that it detected a drone swarm headed towards Romania’s Danube River port of Galati. Possible Russian drone debris has been found in Romanian territory three separate times in September, raising concerns about risks of spillover of the Ukraine war. Romania has expanded a no-fly zone along the Ukraine border and increased patrols and observation points in the area in response. NATO and Romania say there is no evidence that Russian strikes in the area are deliberate attacks on Romania, but have said they are reckless and destabilizing. Reuters
Russian Conscription to Include Occupied Ukrainian Regions for First Time. Russia’s Defense Ministry announced Friday that a new round of military conscription will begin on October 1 and will, for the first time, include the illegally annexed Ukrainian regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Conscripts will depart collection points on October 16 for a 12-month-long service. Russian military officials said that while these regular conscriptions will be carried out twice a year as usual, there are no plans for further mobilizations. CNN
Ukraine Using Decoys To Exhaust Russian Ammunition. One weapon in Ukraine’s arsenal is high-quality decoy battlefield equipment used to draw enemy fire. The Ukrainian company Metinvest manufactures phony howitzers, mortars and radar stations, using plastic foam and scrap equipment. One Ukrainian platoon commander says his unit has used decoys to pinpoint the location from where Russian artillery is firing so that Ukrainian forces could target that artillery. Russia also uses decoys, but how effective they are isn’t known. Advances in thermal imaging and drone surveillance have resulted in corresponding advances in decoy production. For instance, Metinvest decoys can create the infrared heat effect of firing explosive shells by setting off smoke bombs inside a decoy’s barrel. And to complete the deception, decoys are deployed as their real counterparts would be, concealed under camouflage and with trenches dug around them. Metinvest Chief Operating Officer Oleksandr Myronenko says the company is now researching production of tanks and other vehicles. Wall Street Journal
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN:
Lazarus-Linked Hackers Deploy New Malware Against Spanish Aerospace Firm. Hackers affiliated with the North Korean Lazarus gang attempted to lure employees of a Spanish aerospace company with LinkedIn messages posing as a Meta recruiter. The bogus messages contained links masquerading as coding quizzes but were in fact malware that when activated would install a backdoor on the targeted device. According to ESET researcher Peter Kalnai, “the new type of payload, LightlessCan, (is) a complex and possibly evolving tool that exhibits a high level of sophistication in its design and operation and represents a significant advancement in malicious capabilities compared to its predecessor, BlindingCan.” The LightlessCan remote-access-trojan (RAT) is malware that allows a threat actor to surreptitiously bypass computer defenses in order to hijack it. ESET confirmed that the hackers’ spear phishing campaign succeeded in gaining access to the company’s network. The bogus Meta recruiter was able to entice a company employee to download the malicious files onto a company computer. The Record Cybernews CyberScoop BleepingComputer
Japan Plans Deployment of New Cybersecurity Software for Government Systems. Japan plans to reinforce government computer systems beginning next March with security software developed domestically. The program seeks to improve cyber defenses and expand collection and analysis of cyber attack information. Japan’s information technology institute, a component of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, will spearhead the security enhancement program using software that is compatible with Microsoft products used on most government computers. Data collected on cyberattacks that are prevented by the software will be evaluated by the institute. In 2022, the National Police Agency monitored more than 7,000 incidents per day of suspicious access to Japanese organizations, with the bulk of intrusions originating overseas. This past August, the National Center of Incident Readiness and Strategy for Cybersecurity announced that its own email system had been compromised. Japan’s plans also include developing a cybersecurity partnership with Five Eyes intelligence agencies, which will be aided by the new security software that will allow real-time information sharing and collaboration. Nikkei Asia
German Infrastructure CEO Calls for European-Wide Defense Against Cyberattacks. Leonhard Birnbaum, the CEO of Germany’s largest gas and electricity network appealed to authorities to bolster the critical infrastructure across the continent, which he said is under constant, systematic cyberattacks. Birnbaum said he lacked confidence that the German government would come to the aid of his company, Eon, adding “in Germany, I clearly feel that if I really [am] subject to a successful attack, I’m on my own.” He said responses he has received from other infrastructure companies indicate they do not feel supported by authorities. In June, the German government announced increased investments in cybersecurity and critical systems. Rather than “fragmentation” of the government response, Birnbaum said all cyber experts should be combined into a single team under a European-wide organization. Advocating for a pan-European response, Birnbaum pointed out, “the attackers are actually crossing country boundaries…Why should we stop at a country boundary?” Germany’s interior ministry issued a statement saying that its security component would advise and support infrastructure operators in response to a serious cyberattack. Financial Times
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD:
Pro-Russian Figure’s Party Wins Slovakia Parliamentary Election. Slovakia’s SMER party, headed by the pro-Russia former Prime Minister Robert Fico, won the country’s parliamentary election on Saturday, according to nearly complete results. Fico’s SMER party led with around 23% of the vote, ahead of Progressive Slovakia (PS), a liberal and pro-Ukrainian party, which won around 17% of the vote. Fico must now seek coalition partners since his party did not secure enough of the vote to govern on its own. The moderate-left Hlas party, led by a former SMER member, received around 15% of the vote, and could become kingmaker for the next government. Fico has said he “will do everything” in his power to start Russia-Ukraine peace talks, adding on Sunday that while he supports the “reconstruction” of Ukraine, his position against “arming Ukraine” is well established. His comments have sparked concern that he will end Slovak military support for Kyiv and block Ukraine’s NATO ambitions. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said “it’s too early to judge” how the vote will impact support for Ukraine, adding that Kyiv “respects the choice that the people of Slovakia made.” CNN Reuters
Opposition Candidate Widely Seen As Pro-China Wins Maldives Presidential Election. Opposition candidate Mohamed Muizzu defeated incumbent President Mohamed Solih in the Maldives presidential runoff election on Saturday by a margin of 54-46 percent, according to the country’s Elections Commission. In a country divided between pro-China and pro-India factions, Muizzu is widely seen as favoring China. The U.S. State Department congratulated Muizzu on his victory and said the US looks forward to “deepening our partnership with Maldives.” Indian Prime Minister Narenda Modi also congratulated Muizzu and said India remains committed to strengthening the relationship between the two countries. Washington Post
North Korea Denounces UN Nuclear Agency Campaign. North Korea on Monday condemned the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for cooperating with a U.S.-led campaign pressuring Pyongyang over its nuclear program, referring to the U.N. nuclear watchdog as a "paid trumpeter" for Washington. A spokesperson for North Korea’s Ministry of Nuclear Power Industry denounced a Friday resolution from the IAEA which urges North Korea to cease its nuclear development programs. North Korea also criticized the IAEA for targeting Pyongyang instead of focusing on other international issues, in reference to Japan’s Fukushima nuclear plant wastewater discharge and what it calls U.S. nuclear proliferation. The spokesperson also alleged that IAEA chief Rafael Grossi took “the lead in creating the atmosphere of pressurizing the DPRK" by spreading falsehoods about an impending nuclear test. Reuters South China Morning Post
Pakistani Minister Alleges Indian Involvement in Fatal Mosque Bombings. Pakistani interior minister Sarfaraz Bugti has accused an Indian intelligence agency of being “involved in the suicide attack” that destroyed a mosque in Pakistan’s southern district of Balochistan, which killed at least 59 people on Friday. Pakistan’s government has long accused India of supporting violent, insurgent groups in the country, and New Delhi has consistently denied the allegations. Bugti told media that India's Research & Analysis Wing (RAW) intelligence agency was involved in the bombing and vowed that "civil, military and all other institutions will jointly strike against the elements involved” in the attack. The minister provided no evidence showing India’s alleged involvement. No organization has claimed responsibility for the first attack, or a second that killed 5 people in northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The Pakistani Taliban (TTP) has denied having had a hand in the bombings. India's foreign ministry reportedly did not respond to requests for comment. Reuters
Afghan Embassy in New Delhi to Shut Down from October 1st. Afghanistan said in a statement Saturday that its embassy in New Delhi is set to cease operations from October 1st, as it struggles with a lack of support from India, a decrease in personnel and resources, and an alleged failure to meet goals in serving Afghanistan's interests. The embassy said “it is with deep regret” that it decided to shut down “all operations of the mission with the exception of emergency consular services to Afghan citizens till the transfer of the custodial authority of the mission to the host country." India closed its own embassy in Kabul after the Taliban seized control in 2021, as it does not recognize the Taliban government. However, New Delhi had permitted the ambassador and mission staff appointed by the Western-backed government of deposed Afghan President Ashraf Ghani to deal with trade matters and issue visas. Reuters Associated Press Al Jazeera
Attackers Set Off Bomb in Turkish Government Building in Ankara. Turkey Responds with Airstrikes. Two individuals linked to the Kurdish Worker’s Party (PKK), a Kurdish militant group, detonated suicide bombs from outside Turkey’s Interior Ministry building in Ankara on Sunday. The two bombers were the only fatalities, though two police officers were injured, and the building sustained significant damages. This attack came just days ahead of the opening of the Turkish parliament. Turkish warplanes were dispatched to northern Iraq to conduct strikes against fellow suspected Kurdish militants in response. The Turkish defense ministry reported it destroyed 20 PKK targets in air strikes. CNN Associated Press Reuters
China Calls U.S. the “Empire of Lies” Amid Accusations of Manipulation. The Chinese foreign ministry on Saturday called the U.S. the true “empire of lies” in response to the U.S. State Department’s accusations that Beijing has spent billions on a global information manipulation campaign. The State Department released a report on Thursday accusing China of engaging in censorship, data harvesting, and covert purchases of foreign news outlets to manipulate global media. China’s foreign ministry said the report is false information and ignores facts, adding that it is part of U.S. “cognitive warfare” efforts. The ministry later said on Monday that it hopes Washington will “do more things” to encourage Sino-U.S. dialogue. Reuters
China And Germany Pledge Closer Economic Cooperation and ‘Smooth Supply Chains.’ China and Germany announced yesterday that they have agreed to strengthen economic cooperation and open financial markets. The statement also said the two sides agreed to “ensure smooth supply chains.” The announcement by China’s Foreign Ministry followed talks between Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng and German Finance Minister Christian Lindner, the first high-level financial talks since 2019. The talks took place following publication of a German plan to reduce its reliance on goods produced in China. China’s Xinhua news agency said Beijing seeks “inject more positivity” into the China-German relationship. South China Morning Post
U.S. Risk Advisory Executive Barred from Leaving Mainland China as Office Raids Continue. U.S. business confidence in China is reaching decade lows after a series of invasive raids by Chinese officials on foreign businesses in recent months. Foreign companies providing corporate investigations and advising on restructurings and insolvencies have been subjected to incursions and data crackdowns. Raids were conducted on the offices of due-diligence firm Mintz Group, consulting firm Bain & Co. employees were questioned, and - most recently - a senior executive of the U.S. advisory firm Kroll was blocked from leaving the country. Investigators claim Beijing is attempting to use exit bans like this as leverage over foreign companies and governments in negotiations. Bans can last for months or even years. An individual does not typically learn of it until they attempt to leave the country. China has been tightening control over business actions and data, leading to concerns about national security. The U.S. State Department has advised caution when considering travel in China, though officials in Beijing claim that is nothing more than political bias. Wall Street Journal
U.S. Navy Awards $1.1 Billion Contract to Lockheed to Develop Integrated Combat System. The U.S. Navy awarded $23 million to Lockheed Martin to start developing an Integrated Combat System which aims to connect the surface fleets of the U.S. Navy and Coast Guard. The award could be worth up to $1.1 billion by 2030. The Navy envisions a future combat command system that connects all ships in the future with the aim of managing the combat system at less cost and more quickly integrating new capabilities across the entire fleet. The Navy is pursuing upgrades to both software and hardware to pursue this vision. Currently, destroyers, cruisers and littoral combat ships use variations of Lockheed’s Aegis Combat System, which frigate and unmanned surface vessels will also use. Amphibious ships and aircraft carriers use a separate Ship Self-Defense System, which was developed by Raytheon and is now managed by Lockheed. DefenseNews
Over 100,000 Flee Nagorno-Karabakh. The U.N. and Armenia report that over 100,000 ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh have fled to Armenia since Azerbaijan took control of the breakaway region last week. U.N. officials said international aid is urgently needed to deal with the mass exodus from the region, which had a population of around 120,000. Armenia has also asked for E.U. assistance. Italy has said that it requested temporary shelters and medical supplies from the E.U. for Armenia. While Azerbaijan has said it will guarantee the rights of residents of Nagorno-Karabakh as the region is integrated, ethnic Armenians of the region are leaving over fear of persecution and ethnic cleansing. Al Jazeera Reuters
Israeli Troops Kill Hamas Member, Refugee in Separate Attacks on Military Posts. Israeli soldiers killed a member of the Hamas Islamist group who was reportedly among assailants who attacked a military post in the occupied West Bank on Friday. The Israeli military said an unspecified number of assailants threw fire bombs at the post near the Israeli settlement of Psagot. The military said Israeli troops “responded with live fire” and “neutralized” two attackers and then transported them to receive treatment. One of these men later succumbed to his injuries. Hamas claimed the man as a member. On Saturday, Israeli soldiers shot and killed a Palestinian refugee from the Amari refugee camp in Ramallah. The soldiers claim that the refugee threw Molotov cocktails at an army post, leading to the soldiers opening fire. The Palestine Red Crescent says that the military prevented ambulances from providing assistance to the refugee and a fellow suspect. Reuters Al Jazeera
Burkina Faso Says No Elections Till Safety Guaranteed. Burkina Faso’s military junta leader Ibrahim Traore announced on Friday that elections and voting will not be held until the country is safe enough for citizens to vote. This comes days after the junta claimed it thwarted a coup plot on Wednesday. The junta, which came to power only a year ago in a coup of its own, claims that it wishes to return to civilian rule by 2024. Reuters
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