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10:00 AM ET, Monday, October 16, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

TOP STORIES

Biden Administration Hopes to Push Israel-Ukrainian Aid Package. U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on Sunday that the Biden administration is looking to push a new Ukraine-Israel weapons and aid package through Congress.  He noted that the request for the package will be higher than the previously reported $2 billion.  President Joe Biden has meetings scheduled throughout the week with lawmakers with the hope of increasing support for the new package. There are talks of a bundled plan for aid to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and the U.S. southern border to increase the likelihood of Republican support amid doubts over continuing aid for Kyiv.  Multiple House Republicans have already stated they would not support a bill that includes continued aid to Ukraine.  It is still unclear how a bill would pass through Congress without a standing Speaker of the House, but Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said on Sunday, “We're not waiting for the House. We believe if the Senate acts in a strong bipartisan way, it may indeed improve the chances that the House, even with its current dysfunction, will act.”  Reuters New York Times

Taliban Minister to Travel to China’s Belt and Road Forum.  The Taliban’s acting minister for commerce and industry, Haji Nooruddin Azizi, will attend China’s multilateral Belt and Road Forum summit this week, demonstrating the growing ties between Afghanistan and China.  A ministry spokesperson said Azizi will “invite large investors” at the forum to Afghanistan.  China has long expressed interest in tapping into Afghanistan’s wealth of mineral resources, including untapped gold, copper, and lithium deposits.  While Beijing had started talks with the former government ousted by the Taliban, it appears to be continuing discussions with the Taliban administration in Kabul.  China was notably the first nation to appoint a new ambassador to Afghanistan following the Taliban takeover in 2021.  Reuters

ISRAEL HAMAS WAR

Israeli authorities say the Hamas attacks killed at least 1,400 people in Israel.  Palestinian officials say 2,670 people in Gaza have been killed by Israeli air strikes.  The U.S. State Department said on Sunday that it has confirmed at least 30 Americans were killed in the Hamas attacks and that 13 U.S. nationals are still missing.  Associated Press The Hill

Blinken Returns to Israel as Biden Considers Trip.  Secretary of State Antony Blinken returned to Israel on Monday in a show of support for Israel ahead of its expected offensive in Gaza.  Blinken is scheduled to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his war cabinet and President Isaac Herzog in Jerusalem.  He will then meet Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and opposition leader Yair Lapid in Tel Aviv.  Blinken’s return to Israel comes after days of shuttle diplomacy in the region, including stops in Qatar, Jordan, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.  Blinken said the region is committed to containing the fighting between Israel and Hamas, saying that countries he visited are “using their own influence, their own relationships” to prevent the conflict from spreading across the region.  Blinken’s visit comes as President Joe Biden is reportedly considering a trip to Israel after receiving an invitation from Netanyahu.  The White House on Sunday said it had no new travel plans to announce.  Meanwhile, a U.S. congressional delegation in Tel Aviv led by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer was forced to take shelter in a bunker amid Hamas rocket fire on Sunday.  NBC News Reuters Times of Israel Washington Post

Biden Warns Against Occupation of Gaza.  President Joe Biden on Sunday warned Israel against a new occupation of Gaza, saying it would be a “big mistake.”  Speaking in a 60 Minutes interview, Biden sought to draw a distinction between Hamas and ordinary Palestinians, saying that while the militant group must be eliminated, it does not “represent” all Palestinian people.  He added that a Palestinian Authority must remain and that there “needs to be a path to a Palestinian state.”  Biden also noted that Israel has a duty to respond to the Hamas attacks, emphasizing that he believes Israel will act under “the rules of war” and that Hamas militants are “cowards” who are “hiding behind the civilians” in Gaza.  CNN Times of Israel Washington Post

U.S. Sends Second Carrier Strike Group to Eastern Mediterranean.  U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced on Saturday that the U.S. is sending a second aircraft carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean as part of deterrence efforts following the Hamas attacks on Israel.  The second carrier group, led by the U.S.S. Eisenhower, will join another group led by the U.S.S. Gerald Ford.  Austin said the deployment shows the U.S.’s “ironclad commitment to Israel’s security” and efforts to prevent the escalation of the conflict.  ABC News Times of Israel Reuters

Israel says Hamas Officials Killed, 600,000 Flee Northern Gaza Ahead of Expected Israeli Ground Assault.  The Israeli army estimated that over 600,000 people have fled northern Gaza, including Gaza City, for southern Gaza.  Israel ordered 1.1 million people in northern Gaza to leave ahead of an expected ground offensive into the territory.  Top Israeli military officials say such an assault would be aimed at wiping out top Hamas political and military figures.  The Israeli military has yet to announce formal plans for a ground incursion but confirmed that reconnaissance teams entered Gaza on Friday and that Israeli troops are increasing “readiness.”  Israeli Defense Forces spokesman Jonathan Conricus said on Sunday that Israel has already killed several Hamas officials, including those involved in the group’s military and financial activities.  Bloomberg Reuters New York Times South China Morning Post

Egypt Claims Israel Not Cooperating in Reopening of Gaza Crossing.  Egypt is accusing Israel of preventing the full reopening of a crossing with the Gaza Strip.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sunday that the Rafah crossing between Egypt and Gaza would reopen to facilitate the flow of aid into the territory, as well as the evacuation of foreign passport holders.  Egyptian sources said a ceasefire in southern Gaza had been agreed for Monday morning to facilitate aid transfers and evacuations at Rafah.  However, the Egyptian foreign ministry says the Israeli government has yet to open the crossing on the Gaza side.  Both Israel and Hamas also denied a ceasefire in the area had been agreed to.  Hundreds of tons of aid is reportedly waiting to enter Gaza through Rafah at the nearby Egyptian town of Al-Arish.  The Egyptian comments on the crossing come after Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said he believed Israel disproportionately responded to the Hamas attacks, saying that “the reaction went beyond the right to self-defense, turning into collective punishment for 2.3 million people in Gaza.”  Reuters Wall Street Journal

U.S. Warns Iran, Hezbollah Against Interference in Hamas-Israeli Conflict.  White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told CBS’s Face the Nation on Sunday that the U.S. has warned Iran both publicly and privately in recent days not to get involved in the conflict between Israel and Hamas.  Sullivan said the U.S. is monitoring the possibility that Tehran will interfere, either directly or through Hezbollah.  He said there is no new intelligence suggesting the threat along Israel’s northern border has increased, but he told ABC’s This Week that there is “a real risk of escalation” there.  Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian signaled on Sunday that Iran could get involved in the conflict, saying, “If the Zionist aggressions do not stop, the hands of all parties in the region are on the trigger.”  Amirabdollahian reportedly met with Hamas leaders on Saturday in Qatar, where they “agreed to continue cooperation.  Hamas insisted on Monday that its attacks on Israel were not directed by Iran or another outside party, but the militant group said if there is a “ground attack” against Gaza, there will be “surprises announced,” suggesting that allied groups could intervene.  Associated Press Bloomberg Financial Times Reuters

China Refrains from Mentioning Hamas.  While China has expressed concern over “the current escalation of tensions and violence between Palestine and Israel,” Beijing has not condemned, or even specifically mentioned, Hamas in any of its official statements on the matter.  Meanwhile, China’s state media has focused on the Israeli military response in Gaza and the increasing hardships of Palestinians.  Some analysts cite China’s historic alignment with the Arab League for Beijing’s comments on the conflict.  Experts also note that China’s muted response matches ambiguity in its official statements regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  China has sought to position itself as a global peacemaker.  Given Beijing’s response to the Israel-Hamas conflict, some experts echoed U.S. Ambassador Nicholas Burns’ comment on Wednesday that it “remains to be seen if China has the ability to be a true mediator, where you have to speak the truth to both sides.”  Wall Street Journal 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine says Two Civilians Killed in Russian Attacks on Avdiivka.  Ukrainian officials reported on Sunday that two civilians were killed in Russian assaults on the eastern Ukrainian settlement of Avdiivka on Saturday.  Emergency services were unable to retrieve the dead from destroyed buildings due to intense shelling from Russian forces, which has continued for five days.  Ukrainian units had repelled 15 assaults close to Avdiivka, Tonenke and Pervomaiske in Donetsk, according to the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces.  Meanwhile, Kharkiv governor Oleh Sinehubov said Sunday that an overnight Russian air attack killed a 54-year-old woman and a 57-year-old man and injured one woman. Reuters could not confirm the reports.  Reuters

Ukrainian Finance Minister Warns of ‘Tiredness’ Amongst Allies.  Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko told Reuters on Saturday that Ukraine is facing difficulties in securing financial assistance from allies as the war drags on and key donor nations shift their attention from the war to upcoming elections and increasing global tensions.  Speaking in Marrakech on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank meetings, Marchenko said there is a lot of “tiredness” and “weakness” among Kyiv’s partners who “would like to forget about the war.”  He lamented that Ukraine is making "twice the effort right now to convince our partners to provide us with support compared to the last annual meetings" in April.  Ukraine must find financial support to cover a $43 billion budget gap next year.  Marchenko praised efforts to utilize frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine, but said that "a geopolitical shift and internal political context in different countries" are slowing wider support for Kyiv.  The E.U. is currently working on a $52.6 billion Ukraine package for 2024 through 2027.  Marchenko said Ukraine seeks 18 billion euros of that package next year, matching the package received for 2023. Reuters Washington Examiner

Russia’s Lavrov to Visit North Korea Amid Concerns About Military Cooperation.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will visit North Korea on Wednesday and Thursday this week.  North Korean state media and Russia’s foreign ministry confirmed the trip on Monday.  Lavrov’s visit will come amid increasing diplomatic exchanges between Moscow and Pyongyang, which have increased concerns that North Korea is providing weapons to Russia for use in Ukraine in exchange for missile technology banned under U.N. sanctions.  Satellite imagery analyzed by the Royal United Services Institute suggests that Russian ships linked to military transport are collecting cargo from North Korea and bringing it to an apparent Russian military port.  The White House also claimed on Friday that North Korean container ships recently delivered an estimated 1,000 crates of munitions and other equipment to Russia.  Earlier analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies also indicated increased rail activity along the Russian-North Korea border.  Russia has denied violating U.N. sanctions against North Korea but has said it is categorically against any restrictive measures on Pyongyang.  Associated Press Reuters Washington Post 

CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Politico Reviews Targets, Origins of Hamas-Sympathizing Hacking Campaign.  Hamas-sympathizing hackers are attempting to reinforce the militant group’s armed assault on Israel with cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns, according to cybersecurity researchers.  The Israeli-based cybersecurity group Check Point Software reports that it tracked more than 40 groups conducting disruptive cyberattacks on 80-plus websites the day Hamas attacked, including government and media sites.  The depth and scope of the attacks carried out by hacking groups with links Iran and Russia, among other countries, is unknown but they likely originate outside Gaza given the territory’s basic Internet infrastructure.   Jim Himes, the ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee, said after a classified briefing last week, “Hamas and Hezbollah and Iranian-backed hackers are a heck of a lot better than you might think.  The cyber realm needs to be watched carefully.”  Politico

TikTok, Meta Step Up Measures Against Offensive Platform Content.  TikTok, the video social media platform, reports that it has surged resources and staff to perform content moderation in response to the misinformation and offensive material campaigns appearing across the Internet in the wake of Hamas’ attack on Israel.  Last week EU Commissioner Thierry Breton gave TikTok a 24-hour deadline to describe its efforts to counter measures disinformation related to the Middle East conflict.  In a statement, TikTok said it stands against terrorism and expressed its regret over the “horrific acts of terror in Israel last week” and “the intensifying humanitarian crisis unfolding in Gaza.”  TikTok said that among other measures it has launched a command center, bolstered its automated detection systems to remove violent content, and added more Arabic and Hebrew-speaking content moderators.  Meanwhile, Meta Platforms reports it has removed or flagged more than 795,000 pieces of disturbing content following a warning from the EU to step up its moderating efforts.  Meta reported that it is employing fact checkers who speak Hebrew and Arabic and blocking certain hashtags as well as other measures.  Reuters Bloomberg

Chinese Military Shifts to Strategy Stressing Versatile, High-Tech Weapons Systems.  The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) may be shifting from a weapons-systems strategy that focused on exploiting an adversary’s weakness – the so-called assassin’s mace approach – to one that emphasizes outfitting Chinese forces with a versatile array of advanced armaments.  Under Xi Jinping, the PLA has pursued weapons and military support systems that feature technologies such as AI, autonomous capabilities, and cutting-edge electronic warfare devices.  Sam Bresnick, a research fellow at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology, noted that the Chinese and U.S. militaries are on parallel paths: “Both sides see it this way: whoever designs the best systems is going to have the advantage.”  The competition has intensified with China’s development of AI-enabled drone swarms, an advance that began with state-owned China Electronics Technology Group Corporation’s testing of swarm technology in 2016.  Song Zhongping, a retired PLA official, noted that “it’s no longer 20 or 30 years ago, when China was more reliant on the so-called assassin’s maces because our weapon and equipment systems were not fully mature.”  South China Morning Post

Chinese Semiconductor Imports Decline as Underground Chip Market Grows.  China imported 14.6 percent fewer semiconductors through three-quarters of 2023 compared with the same period in 2022, according to Beijing customs administration data.  Thus far this year, 355.9 billion IC units have been imported over 416.7 billion last year.  China’s demand for advanced AI semiconductors created is fueling an expanding market for smuggled graphics processing units (GPUs), such as Nvidia’s A100 and H100 chips.  Covert trade in the sector has intensified despite U.S. restrictions last year on certain classes of products from AMD and Nvidia.  China’s total imports from South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan continued to fall in the first nine months of 2023.  China’s total imports from South Korea fell 23 percent in the first three quarters, marking the steepest drop among the country’s major trade partners. Imports from Japan and Taiwan declined 16.3 and 20 percent, respectively.  South China Morning Post

China Criticizes Costa Rica Labeling Chinese Firms as Threat to 5G Networks.  The Chinese Embassy in Costa Rica said Friday that Costa Rica is undermining economic ties between San Jose and Beijing after Costa Rican officials labeled Chinese companies a cybersecurity threat to the development of 5G networks. China called the officials’ comments “irresponsible and unfounded.” In August, Costa Rican President Rodrigo Chaves issued a decree that banned companies from countries that have not agreed to an international cybercrime convention, including China.  Reuters

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

Putin Dismisses Warnings that U.S. Should Prepare for War With China, Russia.  Russian President Vladimir Putin said Sunday that suggestions the U.S. should prepare for a simultaneous war against Russia and China were nonsense and warned that any war against Russia would be of a different caliber than the conflict in Ukraine.  His comments come after a bipartisan U.S. congressional panel released a report on Thursday saying that the U.S. needs to be prepared for a simultaneous war with Moscow and Beijing by expanding its conventional forces, strengthening alliances, and modernizing its nuclear weapons.  Putin, who is expected to visit China this week, said the warning was “nonsense,” highlighting the magnitude of a war “between great nuclear powers.”  He also accused the U.S. of escalating tensions through actions like the establishment of the AUKUS security alliance.  China and Russia have deepened their military and economic relationship, which has sparked concern in Western countries.  Reuters

South Korea to Conduct Defense Show in Effort to Improve Global Sales.  South Korea, seeking to boost global arms sales and show off a flyby from a U.S. nuclear-capable bomber, will commence its biggest-ever defense exhibition this week with the biennial Seoul International Aerospace and Defense Exhibition (ADEX).  The event, which begins on Tuesday, will be attended by 450 senior defense officials from 54 countries as well as hundreds of thousands of other professionals and spectators.  As part of the show, a U.S. B-52 bomber will perform a flyby and land at an airbase elsewhere in the country. Lee Jong-ho, head of the organizing office, said Monday that the show “is an opportunity for Korea's defense industry to draw international attention and take a giant leap forward." South Korea’s government aims to reach $20 billion in defense exports in 2023 after securing a record $17.3 billion in arms sales last year, including massive agreements with Poland for rockets, howitzers, warplanes, and tanks. Seoul seeks to become the world’s fourth-largest arms exporter. To mark the 70th anniversary of the country’s alliance with the U.S., the demonstration will feature American military weapons.  Reuters Korea Herald

South Korea Targets Firms Helping to Build Taiwanese Naval Submarines.  A document seen by Reuters and confirmed by two people says South Korean officials charged marine technology company SI Innotec last year with violating trade laws for its work on Taiwan’s new military submarine program over concerns about economic retaliation from China.  In a February 17, 2022 affidavit seeking the arrest of SI Innotec Executive Director Mark Mal-sik, South Korean police said authorities feared Beijing would impose broad sanctions over the company’s work on the submarines.  Such an action would be similar to Chinese sanctions imposed in 2016 after Seoul decided to install the U.S. anti-missile system THAAD.  The affidavit said the deal by which SI Innotec would supply Taiwan with manufacturing equipment “directly impacts the overall security” of South Korea.  In the affidavit, police cited China’s angry reaction to a 2021 Reuters report about defense contractors and experts from South Korea and six other countries working on Taiwan’s submarine program.  SI Innotec was fined in August 2022 and Park received a suspended prison sentence.  Both the company and Park deny wrongdoing and have appealed.  In November 2022, two other South Korean companies that allegedly supplied Taiwan – Keumha Naval Technlogy (KHNT) and S2&K — were charged with breaking trade laws, and one of their chief executives was accused of industrial espionage, according to court records and people familiar with the matter.  Reuters said it could not determine whether Beijing pressured Seoul to take action against the companies.  Reuters

Philippines Condemns China for ‘Dangerous and Offensive’ Moves in South China Sea.  Philippine Armed forces chief Romeo Brawner urged China to cease "unsafe actions" in the South China Sea after a Chinese navy vessel followed and tried to cut off a Philippine navy ship performing a resupply mission close to Thitu Island last week.  Brawner reported that the Chinese ship shadowed and approached the Philippine vessel, coming as close as 350 yards in an attempt to cross in front, in the latest incident in a series of efforts by China to surveil and block resupply missions to personnel in Philippines' exclusive economic zone.  Brawner criticized Beijing on Sunday, saying that "these dangerous and offensive maneuvers by China's PLAN not only risk collision but also directly endanger the lives of maritime personnel from both sides.” The Chinese embassy in Manila did not respond to a request for comment.  Reuters Bloomberg South China Morning Post

Romanian Troops Boost NATO's Peacekeeping Mission in Kosovo.  NATO said Saturday that more than 130 Romanian troops reinforced its Kosovo peacekeeping mission on Friday following recent violence. NATO authorized additional forces for its Kosovo Force (KFOR) at the end of last month after a battle between police and Serbs at a monastery in northern Kosovo on September 24, the worst violence in Kosovo in recent years. NATO said 200 British soldiers had been deployed earlier this month to reinforce KFOR, which has operated since 1999 and is made up of more than 4,500 troops from 27 countries.  Reuters RFE/RL

Burkina Faso and Russia's Rosatom Sign Agreement for Nuclear Power Plant.  Burkina Faso’s energy ministry announced that it has signed a memorandum of understanding with Russian nuclear company Rosatom to build a nuclear power plant. The ministry said the plant will enable Burkina Faso to meet its energy needs. The agreement follows a request by Burkina Faso junta leader Capt. Ibrahim Traore to Russian President Vladimir Putin during the Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg in July. The deal comes amid closer ties between the two countries since Traore seized power in September 2022.  Reuters France 24

Polish Opposition Set to Win Elections, Ousting Ruling Nationalists in Major Shift.  Opposition parties led by the liberal Civic Coalition were projected to win a combined 248 seats in Poland’s 460-seat lower house of parliament as partial results and exit polls showed the incumbent nationalist Law and Justice party with only 37% of the vote, which would translate into 198 seats. Analysts see the election as the most significant in Europe in years as it could redefine the relationship between the European Union and its largest member state in central and eastern Europe. The EU and the Law and Justice party have been at odds consistently over rule of law, press freedom, immigration and LGBT issues since the party came to power in 2015.  Reuters New York Times

Ecuador Elects Noboa as President.  Businessman Daniel Noboa won Ecuador’s special presidential election on Sunday with 52% of the vote to 48% for Luisa Gonzalez. In his victory speech, Noboa promised to rebuild the country’s economy. Markets were expected to welcome the news, but analysts have said that investors’ longer-term outlook could be influenced by Noboa’s cabinet selections, which are expected next week. Noboa also has promised to address the country’s sharply rising crime rate and violence. Noboa will take office in December and will be eligible to run for a full term that begins in May 2025.  Reuters New York Times 

French School Stabbing Linked to Islamic Extremism.  On Friday, a man in the northern French town of Arras entered a high school building with a knife and killed a former teacher and injured three others. The attacker — called Mohamed M. by prosecutors at the time of this writing — was a man of Chechen origin who was under surveillance at the time of the attack for suspected Islamic radicalization.  He had been detained for suspicious calling activity the day before, but investigators found no evidence of the next day’s plot. French intelligence suggested that the timing of the attack coincided with the Israel-Hamas war and possibly influenced the attacker’s actions.  Associated Press 

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