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10:00 AM ET, Monday, November 6, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines:  

THE TOP STORIES

CIA Director Burns Begins Middle East Trip With Visit to Israel.   CIA Director William Burns arrived in Israel yesterday for talks with Israeli leaders and intelligence officials, the first stop in a multi-country trip to the region, a U.S. official said. The U.S. seeks to expand its intelligence sharing with Israel, and a U.S. official said Burns plans to reinforce a U.S. commitment to intelligence cooperation with other partners in the region. The official said that during his trip, Burns will discuss hostage negotiations and the importance of preventing the war in Gaza from spreading. The visit is part of an intensive and ongoing effort by the Biden administration for widespread engagement in the region and attempts by the U.S. to prevent the conflict from spreading to other areas in the Middle East.  New York Times  Wall Street Journal Axios

Blinken Makes Surprise Visit to Baghdad in Message to Iran. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken made an unannounced visit to Baghdad as part of his Middle East tour.  Analysts say the move was designed to send a message to Iran regarding the Biden administration’s commitment to defending its partners and U.S. interests in the region while tensions are high amid concerns that the Israel-Hamas conflict could spread. “It was very important to send a very clear message to anyone who might seek to take advantage of the conflict in Gaza to threaten our personnel here or anywhere else in the region: Don’t do it,” Blinken said.  Blinken also expressed support for the Iraqi prime minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, during his visit. His stop in Iraq came as the Biden administration seeks to deter Hezbollah and Iran from taking actions that could escalate the conflict. “The attacks, the threats coming from militia that are aligned with Iran are totally unacceptable,” Blinken said, referring to Hezbollah.  Blinken also reiterated that the Washington was not seeking a fight with Iran but that the U.S. would  “do what’s necessary to protect our personnel”.  New York Times

Escalating Militia Attacks on U.S. Troops Risk Washington-Tehran Confrontation.  An increasing number of attacks on U.S. troops in the Middle East is stoking fears of a direct confrontation between the U.S. and Iran. According to the Pentagon, there have been at least 31 attacks on U.S. installations in Iraq and Syria over the past two weeks, wounding 21, in what officials say is a response by Iranian-backed militias to U.S. support for Israel since the Hamas assault on October 7. To reduce the threat to the approximately 2,500 U.S. troops in Iraq and 900 in Syria, the Pentagon deployed several air defense systems to the region last month. Retired CENTCOM Commander Gen. Frank McKenzie warned that Iran has been providing more accurate weapons to its proxies, increasing the risk of a deadly attack. Wall Street Journal

US Acknowledges Arrival of Guided Missile Submarine in the Middle East.  U.S. Central Command said in a social media post yesterday that a guided missile submarine has arrived in the Middle East. A photo accompanying the announcement appeared to show the Ohio-class guided missile submarine, which can carry up to 150 Tomahawk cruise missiles, in the Suez Canal. The U.S. military rarely announces the movements of its fleet of ballistic and guided missile submarines, so yesterday’s announcement is seen as a clear message of deterrence directed at Iran and its proxies. The sub joins several other U.S. Navy vessels in the area.  CNN

Zelensky Denies Ukraine War at Stalemate.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has denied reports that E.U. and U.S. officials are pushing Ukraine to open peace talks with Russia.  Speaking at a joint press conference with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Kyiv, Zelensky maintained that “it has never been like this and will never be.”  NBC News reported on Saturday that U.S. and European officials are talking with the Ukrainian government on what negotiations with Russia may look like, including what Ukraine may need to give up in a peace deal.  The report said NATO members were involved in the discussions, which were reportedly spurred from concerns that the Ukraine war had reached a stalemate.  Von der Leyen said in her visit that Ukraine will still “take sovereign decisions” on the matter, pointing to Ukraine’s peace proposal.  The report on Western officials’ consideration of peace talks came after Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander General Valery Zaluzhnyi suggested in an Economist article that the fighting in Ukraine has reached a stage of static, attritional fighting.  Zelensky denied that this meant the war had reached a stalemate, asserting that Ukraine “has no right to even think about giving up” in resisting Russia’s invasion and urging further support from allies, including the delivery of more air defenses.  The Institute for the Study of War highlighted a longer essay from Zaluzhnyi that did not suggest a stalemate in the war, instead outlining ways to progress from the current “positional” stage of the war, including achieving air superiority, increasing counter-battery capabilities, and boosting electronic warfare.  Reuters NBC News The Guardian Politico New York Times Ukrinform Institute for the Study of War

Russian Nuclear Submarine Test-Launches Bulava Intercontinental Ballistic Missile.  The Russian Defense Ministry says that the country’s new strategic nuclear submarine, the Imperator Alexander III, tested a Bulava intercontinental ballistic missile successfully. The ministry said the missile was launched from underwater in the White Sea off Russia’s northern coast and hit a target thousands of miles away on the Kamchatka Peninsula in the Russian Far East. The sub can reportedly carry 16 Bulava missiles.  Western analysts say each missile can carry up to six nuclear warheads. Sources say the submarine is the seventh of the Russian Project 955 Borei (Atlantic Wind) class and the fourth of the modernized Borei-variant. Russian media reports Moscow aims to maintain 10 to 12 Borei-class submarines, to be divided between the Northern and Pacific fleets. Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) said Saturday, however, that Russian tests of its Yars and Bulava missiles had been unsuccessful. HUR also reported there have been repeated delays in Russia’s adoption of Sarmat, an ICBM said to have a range of up to 18,000 kilometers. HUR’s analysis indicated deficiencies in Sarmat overcoming anti-missile defenses in comparison with its predecessor, the RS-20 Voyevoda. And HUR said Russia also has faced challenges in modernizing the air-based component of its nuclear forces, with the introduction of a new Tu-160M2 aircraft being postponed because of engine production issues. HUR has concluded that Russia’s difficulties in modernizing its nuclear capabilities are the result of Western sanctions and shortcomings in Russia’s scientific, technological and industrial capabilities. Reuters AP Kyiv Independent  

Australia’s PM Albanese Meets China’s Xi.  Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Monday, marking the first visit by an Australian leader to the Chinese capital since 2016.  Albanese is seeking to mend Sino-Australian relations, which have mainly been damaged by security concerns, to bolster trade ties.  Xi said a “healthy and stable” relationship is in their mutual interest, and Albanese said strong ties “will be beneficial into the future.”  Trade between China and Australia has increased in recent months and an Australian journalist detained in China was recently released, but other issues remain, such as tensions in the South China Sea and accusations of Chinese interference in Australian politics.  Reuters 

Expert Perspective: What the U.S. Should Do About Iran.  Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander and Cipher Brief Expert Adm. James Stavridis (Ret.) writes that as the conflict in Gaza escalates and world opinion begins to turn against Israel in the wake of inevitable civilian casualties there, he fears Iran will “lash out either through more proxy activity – notably from Hezbollah – or even directly.” Stavridis says that if this happens, some of the options President Biden is likely to consider include:

• cyberattacks by U.S. Cyber Command and the National Security Agency targeting critical Iranian infrastructure;
•  special forces operations against Hezbollah, possibly including joint missions with their Israeli counterparts;
• long-range missile strikes against critical Iranian military targets;
• air strikes from F/A Hornets or Joint Strike Fighters from the USS Eisenhower in the Arabian Sea, possibly augmented by Air Force strikes from across the Arabian Gulf against coastal and Gulf infrastructure.

Stavridis says hitting these targets would not result in significant civilian casualties but “would have both deep military effect and crippling economic impact.” He adds that his list of options “is just the beginning in terms of U.S. capability” and that while the Iranian leadership is extremist, it is not irrational: “Let’s hope they’re paying attention.” Bloomberg 

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Israeli Military Conducts Large Scale Operation and now Poised for Gaza City Battle.  An Israeli military spokesman said on Monday that Israeli forces had conducted “a significant operation” and had effectively encircled Gaza city.  This follows what was described as one of the most intense aerial bombardments of the war, with Israel reportedly striking 450 targets in 24 hours.  The military said it had killed a senior Hamas militant, Jamal Mussa, who is alleged to have carried out an attack on Israeli soldiers in Gaza in 1993.  Gaza also experienced its third complete communications black out of the war over the weekend though services were being restored by Monday.  If Israeli forces enter Gaza city the battle is expected to be fierce as Hamas militants are believed to be barricaded among the destroyed buildings and prepared to use an extensive network of tunnels under the city.  Many civilians are also reportedly still in Gaza city, though Israeli officials say that a humanitarian corridor designed to allow civilians to escape to the southern part of Gaza, will remain open for part of Monday. Wall Street Journal New York Times Associated Press

Lebanese Hezbollah Claims Credit For Attacks Against Israeli Military.  Hezbollah said it conducted multiple attacks against Israeli military positions on the Lebanese border on Saturday.  A Lebanese source said Hezbollah fired a powerful missile it has not yet used in the fighting that hit an Israeli position near the Ayta al-Shaab and Rmeich villages.  The Israeli army said its warplanes, tanks and artillery struck Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon in response.  Israeli forces said they hit “terrorist infrastructure, rocket caches, and compounds” used by Hezbollah in its attacks.  Lebanese state media and local defense officials said four civilians were killed in the Israeli air strikes.  Fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has continued since the Hamas attacks on October 7, raising risks about an expansion of the conflict.  Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said on Friday that further escalations would depend on Israeli actions in Gaza and Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu warned last month that the opening of a second war front would be met with an “unimaginable” response.  Al Jazeera Reuters

Blinken and Arab Leaders Disagree Over Ceasefire Decisions During Meeting. At a meeting on Saturday with key Arab allies, Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed a “humanitarian pause” as opposed to the ceasefire called for by many leaders present. This comes just hours after a strike by the Israeli military that reportedly killed at least 15 in a U.N. school that was serving as a shelter in Gaza. The Secretary of State expressed his disagreement, saying that a ceasefire would only give Hamas time to regroup. Diplomates from Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E, and Qatar all called for an end to what Egyptian diplomat Sameh Shoukry called “collective punishment” of Palestinians. One senior Hamas official said that Blinken should “stop the aggression and should not come up with ideas that cannot be implemented.” President Biden has reportedly been in talks with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to allow for a humanitarian pause, though such a plan was rejected by the Prime Minister just this week. Although unable to reach a consensus, diplomats from Egypt and Jordan agreed to continue to work with Blinken to reach a solution that would end the war and bring peace to the Palestinian people.  Associated Press Bloomberg Reuters

Blinken Meets with Palestinian Authority President Abbas in West Bank.  Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas told visiting Secretary of State Antony Blinken yesterday that the PA could return to power in Gaza only “within the framework of a comprehensive political solution” that includes all of the West Bank as well, the official Palestinian news agency Wafa reported. Reuters quoted an unidentified senior State Department official as saying the future of Gaza was not the focus of the meeting between Blinken and Abbas, but that the PA “seemed to be willing to play a role.” Al Jazeera Wall Street Journal

Blinken Meets Turkish Counterpart in Ankara as Protesters Attempt to Storm U.S. Airbase in Turkey.  As part of his Middle East tour, Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in Ankara on Monday.  Blinken said he and Fidan discussed expanding humanitarian aid for Gaza and how to prevent the Israel-Hamas conflict from expanding in the region.  A Turkish foreign ministry source said Fidan asserted that a ceasefire in Gaza must be declared immediately and had criticized Israel for targeting and displacing civilians.  Blinken did not meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has criticized Israel for its attacks in Gaza and the U.S. for its “unlimited support for Israel.”  During Blinken and Fidan’s meeting, dozens of protesters gathered outside Turkey’s foreign ministry building to demand he and his delegation leave.  Hundreds of protesters also held a pro-Palestine rally outside the Incirlik air base in southern Turkey, which houses U.S. troops, ahead of Blinken’s visit.  Police used tear gas and water cannons to disperse the protesters after they reportedly attempted to storm the base.  Reuters Al Jazeera

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Zelensky Invites Trump to Ukraine, Urges More Assistance.   Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged Washington to offer his country more aid in the war effort against Russia, and extended an invitation to visit Ukraine to former U.S. President Donald Trump. According to a transcript of an interview with NBC News, Zelensky warned that if the conflict with Russia does not cease, the violence could expand to other countries in Europe and cautioned that American troops could get involved in a future expanded war in Europe, saying that Moscow “will attack NATO countries” and the U.S. “will send your sons and daughters” to the front. Zelensky also invited Donald Trump, the current leading republican candidate to see the conflict in Ukraine for himself.  The former President, seeking U.S. reelection, has criticized Washington’s aid for Kyiv. In reference to Trump’s past comments that he could end the war himself in “24 hours” if reelected, Zelensky says he only needs “24 minutes to explain to President Trump that he can't manage this war," as there can be no peace because of Russian leader Vladimir Putin. NBC Reuters

Russia Attacks Ukraine Military Ceremony, Killing 20 Troops, 9 Civilians.   Ukraine has ordered a criminal probe into the death of 20 soldiers who were killed Friday in a Russian missile attack while they were attending an award ceremony in a village near the southern region of Zaporizhia. Zaporizhia Governor Yuriy Malashko reported that nine civilians were also killed in the incident. The Ukrainian Armed Forces said Saturday that Moscow launched an Iskander-M missile, targeting “the personnel of the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade.” In a speech on Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky lamented the attack, saying that it was a “tragedy that could have been avoided,” and promised that the investigation would uncover the “complete truth.” The New York Times, quoting an unnamed military official, reported that the probe would most likely focus on determining how Moscow had received intel about the award ceremony and how they had carried out the assault. The official also said that senior brigade members may have violated protocol by holding the event in the open. The Russian defense ministry said that its forces had “inflicted fire” on a unit of Ukraine’s assault brigade in Zaporizhia, killing up to 30 troops.  RFERL Al Jazeera New York Times

Ukrainian Military Hits Russian Shipyard in Crimea.  Ukraine’s military on Saturday said it conducted a strike against the Zalyv shipyard in Kerch, a city in the east of the occupied Crimean peninsula.  The Department for Strategic Communications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said it successfully hit “marine and port infrastructure of the ' ‘Zalyv’ factory' ' in the attack.  Mykola Oleshchuk, commander of Ukraine’s Air Force, said Russian Navy ships, including a Kalibr cruise missile carrier, were at Zalyv during the attack.  The Russian-installed governor of Crimea claimed air defenses intercepted a missile attack and the fragments of downed missiles fell onto dry docks, causing no casualties, while the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Ukraine hit a shipyard in Kerch, damaging one ship.  Reuters and AFP news agencies said they were unable to immediately verify either side’s reports.  Al Jazeera The Hill

Russian Air Strikes Hit Odesa.  Russian airstrikes on Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odesa injured eight people on Sunday.  Ukraine’s Interior Ministry said 20 multi-story buildings, including the Odesa Fine Arts Museum, were damaged in the attack.  The attack also damaged port infrastructure and caused grain trucks to catch fire.  Ukraine’s air force said air defenses downed 15 of 22 Iranian-made Shahed drones launched in the attack, along with an X-59 missile.  Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian presidential office, suggested the Odesa attack was in response to Ukrainian strikes on Crimea.  Al Jazeera Reuters Kyiv Independent

Ursula von der Leyen Visis Kyiv Amidst Russian Attacks. On Saturday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv. The visit came amidst recent Russian attacks on 26 separate Ukrainian cities, leaving at least 14 wounded. Attacks were conducted by Russian forces in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions using aircraft, tanks, artillery, and drones. Von der Leyen met with Zelensky for the sixth time since the start of the war. She previously said that she aims to create a path for Ukraine to join the European Union and stated on Twitter that this sixth meeting focused on “how we will continue to make Russia pay for its war of aggression.” Von der Leyen also told the Ukrainian President after the meeting, “We should never forget you are fighting an existential war, and at the same time, you are deeply reforming your country.”  Associated Press

Russia’s Arrest of Former FSB Agent is a Message to Ultranationalists.  The Washington Post is out with a report that examines the Kremlin’s recent decision to arrest former FSB agent Igor Girkin, convicted earlier this year in absentia by a Dutch court for the 2014 downing of a passenger jet over Ukraine.  The arrest, the report says, marks the end of Moscow’s protection for Girkin, but also sends a signal that Moscow’s tolerance for ultranationalists who criticize Russian leadership is over. Girkin’s arrest, which landed him in the notoriously harsh Lefortovo prison, was prompted not by his involvement in the murder of 298 people aboard Malaysian Airlines Flight 17, but by his direct condemnation of Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom Girkin had accused of “cowardly mediocrity.” He is currently awaiting trial on a charge of inciting extremism, following a social media post that said Russia “could not survive another six years” of Putin’s rule. In October, Strelkov told the court that his detention was “insulting” and the charge against him “absurd.” His supporters argue that his arrest is due not to his harsh criticism of Russia’s leader but his popularity and influence and to prevent Strelkov from challenging Putin in Russia’s 2024 presidential election.  Washington Post 

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Musk Launches X-Linked AI Chatbot.  Elon Musk has launched a new AI chatbot called Grok on the social media site X. Musk said Grok “loves sarcasm” and will answer questions with humor. He also said Grok will answer “spicy questions rejected by most other AI systems.” According to Musk, Grok already is superior to ChatGPT 3.5. The company’s website said Grok is being developed with data from X, and thus is better informed on newer developments than bots with static data sets. So far, Grok is available only to selected users. Early signs are that Grok has problems common to other AI tools, including providing information with basic errors while sounding authoritative. The term “grok” was coined by science fiction writer Robert Heinlein in the 1961 novel Stranger in a Strange Land. To grok is to empathize deeply with others. BBC Bloomberg 

U.S., South Korea, Japan Form Group on North Korean Cyber Threats.  The U.S., South Korea and Japan say they plan to launch a high-level consultative group to counter North Korean cyber activities.  South Korea’s presidential office said on Monday that Anne Neuberger, U.S. deputy national security advisor for cyber and emerging technologies, met with her South Korean and Japanese counterparts in Washington last week to discuss the arrangement and agreed to hold quarterly meetings under the new framework.  The office highlighted the threat of North Korean cyber activities as a key source of funding for Pyongyang’s nuclear and military programs.  The leaders of the U.S., South Korea and Japan agreed at a Camp David summit in August to establish a trilateral working group on North Korean cyber threats.  North Korea has denied allegations of launching hacking attempts and other cyberattacks.  The Record Reuters 

Data Brokers Selling U.S. Service Members’ Sensitive Data.  New research has found that data brokers are selling highly sensitive data on American military service members.  Researchers at Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy found that they were able to purchase significant amounts of data, including sensitive health and financial information, from brokers for as little as 12 cents per service member.  Researchers highlighted the sale of this data as a national security threat, saying that foreign adversaries are likely interested in collecting this information for potential blackmail or other efforts to compromise military personnel.  The Record

Palo Alto Networks Acquires Israeli Cyber Startup Talon.  Palo Alto Networks has agreed to buy Talon Cyber Securty Ltd., marking the U.S. company’s second acquisition of an Israeli startup in a week.  Palo Alto Networks said it will integrate Talon’s browser security technology into its network.  The U.S. company took over Israeli startup Dig Security last week.  Palo Alto Networks is seeking to boost its data security capabilities and its Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) offerings.  Bloomberg

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

The Americas

Pro-Palestinian Protestors March on Washington. Thousands of protestors rallied in Washington DC  on Sunday in support of Gaza and the Palestinian people. The protestors denounced President Biden’s policy in the war and have called for his support in bringing about a cease-fire. Protestors waved signs that read “Palestinian Lives Matter'' and “Let Gaza Live” as they marched through the streets of Washington, D.C. Mahdi Bray, national director of the American Muslim Alliance, told reporters, “What we want and what we demand is a ceasefire now.” Protestors chanted, “Biden, Biden, you cannot hide; you signed up for genocide,” reminiscent of the U.N.’s recent warning that the Palestinian people are at “grave risk of genocide.” This demonstration was one of the largest pro-Palestine demonstrations in recent years.  Reuters

India Says High-Level Canadian Official Damaged Probe.  India's High Commissioner to Canada, Sanjay Kumar Verma, said that Canada's police probe regarding the June murder of a Sikh separatist in British Columbia has been damaged by a high-level Canadian official's public statements on the matter.  Canada has alleged Indian government involvement in the murder of Canadian citizen and Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar, whom India deemed a terrorist.  India denies any involvement.  Verma said the investigation into the matter has been “tainted” by “someone at a high level.”  He did not identify the official or specify how the probe had been damaged, though he maintained that India has not been shown any concrete evidence by Canada that Indian intelligence agents were involved in Nijjar's death.  Verma did add that despite the damaged relations between the two countries over Nijjar’s killing, India is still seeking to expand business ties and return to the negotiating table on a potential trade deal.  Reuters

Asia and Oceania

Philippines Seeking New Defense Agreement with Japan.  Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said on Monday that the Philippines is seeking a “reciprocal access agreement” with Japan, which would allow the deployment of military forces on each other’s territory.  Teodoro said Manila wants to reach a deal in the near future and says that such an agreement will help both sides “preserve the rules-based international order and international law.”  Manila and Tokyo reportedly started talks on the military deal when Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited the Philippines last week.  Teodoro commented on talks about the possible troop pact at a ceremony at a military base which the U.S. has been given access to under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA).  Teodoro said U.S. support has bolstered the Philippines’ “defensive posture” amid tensions with China.  Reuters

South Korea to Launch Spy Satellite.  South Korea announced on Monday that it plans to launch its first domestically made spy satellite on November 30.  South Korea’s Defense Ministry said the satellite will be launched from California’s Vandenberg Air Force Base and carried on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket.  South Korea does not currently have its own military reconnaissance satellites in orbit and relies on U.S. spy satellites to monitor North Korea.  South Korea’s Defense officials say Seoul seeks to launch four more spy satellites by 2025.  The launch comes after two failed North Korean attempts to launch their own spy satellites earlier this year.  Pyongyang said it would attempt a third launch in October but has not yet done so.  Seoul has warned that North Korea is likely receiving Russian technological assistance for its spy satellite program in exchange for munitions that Russia can use in its invasion of Ukraine.  Associated Press

Tokyo Holds First Missile Drills in Years.  Tokyo held its first missile evacuation drills in years on Monday amid heightened concerns about missile threats from North Korea.  Around 60 residents participated in the drill in Tokyo’s Nerima ward.  Disaster prevention officials said more exercises are needed since some people still do not know what to do if warned about a missile launch by Japan’s J-Alert system.  Japan has had over a dozen such drills nationwide this year, but Monday’s drill was the first in Tokyo since 2018.  Reuters

U.S. and China Meet to discuss tensions in South China Sea. Talks between State Department China Coordinator Mark Lambert and China's Director-General for Boundary and Ocean Affairs Hong Liang took place in Beijing on Friday to discuss the situation in the South China Sea. Statements by the State Department claimed they were part of an effort to “maintain open lines of communication and responsibly manage the U.S.-China relationship.” “The U.S. has characterized the PRC's recent actions in the region as “dangerous and unlawful” according to the same statement. A State Department spokesperson also shared that the U.S. Assistant Secretary for Arms Control Mallory Stewart would meet the head of China’s arms-control department, Sun Xiaobo, next week to hold “consultations on arms control and non-proliferation.” The increase in diplomatic interactions between the U.S. and China comes as a part of Washington’s mission to soothe tensions after the February shooting of a balloon suspected to be Chinese spy software.  Reuters

Pakistani Military Reports Attacks on Air Force Base by Islamist Militants. According to the Pakistani military, nine Islamist militants conducted an attack against an air force base in central Pakistan on Saturday. The military reports that all militants were killed during the attacks, which damaged three “non-operational” aircraft. “No damage has been done to any of the Pakistan Air Force's functional operational assets, while only some damage was done to three already phased out non-operational aircraft during the attack,” the military said in a statement regarding the incident. There was no mention of possible military personnel casualties. The militant group Tehreek-e-Jihad Pakistan (TJP) claimed responsibility for the attack. Little is known of the Islamist extremist group’s intentions, but the group has conducted similar operations in the southwestern Balochistan province this year.  Reuters

Europe

Moldovan Prime Minister Announces Ban of Pro-Russian Political Party from Running in Local Elections. Two days before local elections were set to start in Moldova, authorities announced that the pro-Russian Chance Party would be barred from participation. Prime Minister Dorin Recean made the announcement on Friday, just hours after the arrest of Chance Party associate Ilan Shor, under suspicion of channeling funds to host anti-government protests and pay off voters. Prime Minister Recean told reporters that the ban was enacted “for reasons of state security.” The Moldovan government claims Shor’s actions were funded by the Russian government in an attempt to start a “hybrid war” with Moldova. “Russia cannot invade Moldova with tanks like in Ukraine, instead, it invades using criminal groups,” said Recean. Chance Party members have been instructed by leader Alexei Lungu to vote for alternative candidates in the meantime. Moldovan President Maia Sandu believes Russia’s intervention in the election is an attempt to remove her from office ahead of crucial votes to decide if Moldova will join the European Union.  Reuters

Moldova Claims Russia Has Spent Over $50 Million in Destabilization Efforts. At a press conference on Friday, Alexandru Musteata, head of Moldova's Information and Security Service, alleged that Russian entities have spent roughly $1 billion lei ($55.45 million USD) in efforts to destabilize the Moldovan government. $90 million lei has gone to voter bribery and financing of the pro-Russian Chance Party. Musteata told reporters, “Together with other law enforcement agencies, a large-scale operation has been uncovered, the purpose of which is to influence the electoral processes.” The investigation also uncovered an attempted coup organized by those associated with an alleged criminal group reportedly led by pro-Russian politician Ilan Shor . The U.S. Treasury Department says that Shor worked “with Russian individuals to create a political alliance to control Moldova's parliament”. Shor has also been accused of funneling Russian funds into the Chance Party and “buying” votes in local elections.  Kyiv Independent

Serbia’s Pro-Russian Intelligence Chief Resigns.  Serbian intelligence chief Aleksandar Vulin resigned from his post on Friday, saying he wanted to avoid further U.S. sanctions against Serbia.  The U.S. imposed sanctions on Vulin in July, accusing him of misuse of public office to facilitate illegal arms shipments in Serbian territory, as well as involvement in a drug trafficking ring.  Vulin has said the U.S. imposed the sanctions over his calls for closer ties with Russia over the West.  Anti-government protests in Serbia following mass shootings in May have called for Vulin’s ouster.  Associated Press

Estonia to Allow Taiwan to Open Non-Diplomatic Representative Office.  Estonia has decided to allow Taiwan to open a nondiplomatic representative office in its territory to bolster economic and cultural ties.  Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said that Tallinn still does not recognize Taiwan as a country and will continue observing the “One China” policy but wants to strengthen relations with Taiwan through the office.  He added that Estonia seeks to align its China policy with the E.U., which views Beijing as “a partner, a competitor, and a rival.”  The announcement about the office came days before Taiwanese foreign minister Joseph Wu is set to arrive in Estonia, though Tsahkna stressed heavily that the visit was not at the request of the government and that Wu will not meet with any Estonian Cabinet members.  Associated Press

Hostage Situation in Germany’s Hamburg Airport Ends Peacefully.  German police reported on Sunday that a hostage situation in the Hamburg Airport involving a 35-year-old male suspect and his 4-year-old daughter has ended without injuries. All flights to and from the airport were paused after the suspect crashed through security with his vehicle on Saturday, parked under an airplane on the tarmac, and fired two shots in the air before throwing two burning bottles out of his car.  The passengers on the aircraft were able to safely disembark. A police spokesperson said that a “substantial amount of special forces” were deployed to resolve the situation, and officers had continued negotiations with the suspect into Sunday morning.  The man did not resist arrest and his daughter was not harmed.  CNN Al Jazeera New York Times

Middle East

Turkish Drone Strike on PKK Members in Iraq Kills Two.  A Turkish drone strike in the Iraqi Kurdish town of Ranya killed two suspected members of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) on Monday, according to Iraqi Kurdistan’s counter-terrorism service.  Turkey regularly launches attacks against members of the PKK, which it deems a terrorist group, in northern Iraq.  Reuters

Africa

Sudanese RSF Seize Control of Army HQ in West Darfur's El Geneina.   Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) claimed Saturday to have seized control of army headquarters in West Darfur's capital of El Geneina, the third city of the Darfur region's five state capitals that the RSF has captured in the last two weeks. Aid workers say that thousands of refugees have fled to neighboring Chad after the RSF began assaulting El Geneina last week, and local residents have accused the paramilitary and Arab militias of carrying out a rash of ethnic killings against Masalit people, in addition to raping and looting. The RSF has denied such allegations, and promised to punish any offenders. The Sudanese army did not comment on the development, but the Sudanese Alliance, an armed group aiding the army, confirmed the loss of the city and vowed to continue fighting the paramilitary forces. Reuters 

Guinea Says Former-Junta Head Recaptured after Escape from Prison.  The Defense Ministry of Guinea said Saturday that Moussa Dadis Camara, the ex-chief of Guinea’s 2008 junta, has been recaptured after his escape from prison on Saturday morning. Justice Minister Charles Wright said that several heavily armed men sprung Camara from Maison Centrale de Conakry prison, along with three other officials.  Only one remains at large, with the other escapees having been sent back to prison.  Since 2022, Camara and the others have been on trial for allegedly organizing a mass rape and stadium massacre by Guinean security forces in 2009, in which 150 people died during a pro-democracy rally.  Camara has denied orchestrating the accusations.  Military head Mamady Doumbouya, who seized power in a 2021 coup, currently governs Guinea. CNN France 24 Financial Times

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Emma Fisk, Katharine Campbell and Ryan Simons contributed to this report.

Read deeply-experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis and opinion in The Cipher Brief