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10:00 AM ET, Monday, November 27, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines:  

THE TOP STORIES

U.S. Navy Thwarts Ship Hijacking in Gulf of Aden, Captures Hijackers as They Tried to Flee.  Attackers seized the Liberian-flagged tanker Central Park in the Gulf of Aden off the coast of Yemen on Sunday.  The armed assailants later attempted to flee the ship when the U.S. military’s Central Command responded to the seizure and demanded that the attackers release the vessel.  Central Command said five attackers were arrested.  Ship operator Zodiac Maritime, which manages the Central Park, said the tanker’s crew of 22 sailors were unharmed and that its cargo of phosphoric acid was secure.  Subsequently, two ballistic missiles were fired from Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen early Monday morning.  The missiles landed 10 nautical miles (11.5 miles) from the Arleigh Burke-class destroyer U.S.S. Mason, which responded to the seizure of the Central Park.  There was no reported damage or injuries from the missile launches.  Yemen’s internationally recognized government blamed the Houthis for the seizure of the tanker, though the Houthis have not commented on the seizure or the missile attack.  Zodiac Maritime is part of Israeli billionaire Eyal Ofer’s Zodiac Group.  The attempted seizure of the Central Park comes after a separate container ship owned by another Israeli billionaire was attacked on Friday by a suspected Iranian drone in the Indian Ocean.  The Houthis also seized a transport ship linked to Israel in the Red Sea off Yemen earlier in November.  The recent attacks on shipping in the area have demonstrated how the Israel-Hamas war is expanding in the region.  Associated Press Washington Post Bloomberg Reuters

Senate Nears Vote on Biden’s Ukraine Request.  Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said yesterday he plans to hold a vote on President Biden’s aid request for Ukraine as soon as next week. Schumer said Republicans’ demand for changes in U.S. border security are the “biggest holdup” to new assistance to Ukraine and Israel. He said Senate Democrats will work on “common-sense solutions” on immigration but if Republicans take a hard line, it could jeopardize the bill. Politico

Biden to Invoke Defense Production Act to Boost Medical Supplies Inventory.  President Joe Biden is invoking the Cold War-era Defense Production Act to increase capacity in U.S. manufacturing of medicines and medical equipment deemed important for national defense.  The White House said the Department of Health and Human Services will use powers under the act for investments in “essential medicines” and “medical countermeasures,” such as supplies used in response to chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear attacks.  The move is part of efforts by the Biden administration to address ongoing supply chain issues.  Reuters The White House

Three Palestinian American Students Shot.  Three Palestinian American college students were shot in Burlington, Virginia on Saturday.  Police are investigating the possibility of a “hate-motivated” crime in the shooting.  Authorities say the victims were wearing keffiyeh and speaking Arabic when they were attacked by the gunman, who fired on them without speaking and then fled.  The Burlington Police Department said all three victims remain hospitalized, with one suffering very serious injuries.  A suspect, identified as Jason Eaton, was reportedly taken into custody after authorities searched his home.  BBC Reuters Washington Post

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Israel, Hamas Signal Openness to Extending Ceasefire.  Hamas and Israel have observed a four-day ceasefire to exchange hostages taken by Hamas for Palestinians in Israeli prisons.  Hamas has released 58 hostages over the past three days, including a 4-year-old girl, who is the first of 10 Amercians believed to have been taken during the militant group’s October 7 attack on Israel.  Hamas also released 14 Thai nationals, one Filipino, a South African woman, and two Hungarians in the exchange.  Hamas additionally released a dual Israeli Russian citizen after what the group called “efforts of Russian President Vladimir Putin and in appreciation of the Russian position in support of the Palestinian cause.”  Israel has released over 100 Palestinian prisoners and detainees from Israeli prisons in the exchange.

Hamas said on Sunday that it is seeking to extend its four-day ceasefire with Israel on the condition that Israel increases the release of Palestinian detainees.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that he is open to an extension of up to 10 days if Hamas releases 10 hostages per day.  Egypt, Qatar, and the U.S. are pressing for an extension to the ceasefire.  Aid agencies are racing to increase distribution of food, medicine, and shelters in Gaza ahead of the scheduled end of the four-day pause in fighting.  One U.N. official reported on Sunday that the U.N. was on track to deliver the largest shipment of aid to northern Gaza in over a month.  Al Jazeera Bloomberg New York Times NPR Reuters Washington Post

Biden Seeks to Expand Israeli Access to US Weapons Stockpile.  The White House has asked the Senate to lift almost all restrictions on Israel’s access to a U.S. weapons stockpile that includes smart bombs, missiles, vehicles, ammunition and equipment. The request came in President Biden’s October 20 supplementary budget request. Senate agreement would allow Israel to obtain more high-powered American hardware from the War Reserve Stockpile Allies-Israel (WSRA-I) at a reduced cost and with less Congressional oversight and would waive the limit on spending to refill the stockpile. Al Jazeera

Elon Musk Visits Israel.  Tech billionaire Elon Musk is meeting Israeli President Isaac Herzog and relatives of Israelis taken hostage by Hamas on Monday.  As part of his trip, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took Musk to the Kfar Azza kibbutz, which was one of several kibbutzim attacked by Hamas on October 7.  Musk’s visit comes amid concern about antisemitism on his social media platform, X.  Several days ago, a user on X accused Jewish communities of pushing “hatred against Whites” and playing a role in the “hordes of minorities” entering Western countries, to which Musk responded: “You have said the actual truth.”  Many major advertisers have halted ad spending on X in response and the White House offered public criticism of Musk over his comments.  Herzog’s office said that meetings with Musk will emphasize “rising antisemitism online” and the plight of Israeli hostages being held by Hamas in Gaza.  As Musk arrived, Israel announced that it reached an agreement “in principle” to use SpaceX’s Starlink communications in Gaza.  The announcement marked a reversal in the Israeli government’s refusal of opening Starlink to Gaza over concerns that Hamas could use it for “terrorist activities.”  Al Jazeera CNN Reuters

Israel Hosts Qatari Intelligence Services Regarding Hostages and Gaza Truce. Israel's Mossad intelligence service hosted Qatari intelligence officers over the weekend to discuss hostage releases and a possible extension to the Qatar-mediated ceasefire in Gaza, according to an Israeli security official. The delegation arrived in Israel on Saturday, though no announcement of the meeting was made by Qatari media sources. According to another official, a few Qatari delegates would remain in Israel to “strengthen coordination” and “ensure the process ran smoothly” as talks continued between Israel and the operations teams back in Doha. Qatar maintains cordial relations with Iran and hosts the political office of several Hamas officials.  Reuters

Egyptian President al-Sisi Believes Future Palestinian State Could Be Demilitarized.  Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said on Friday the he believes that a future Palestinian state could be demilitarized with a temporary international presence to uphold promises to both Israel and Palestine. Sisi stated to multiple news sources that forces from the U.S., NATO, U.N., and other Arab states could be used to “achieve security for both states.” Other Arab nations have rejected plans to provide forces to maintain peace in the Gaza Strip after the end of the conflict between Israeli and Hamas forces. Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi told reporters that Arab states would not want to send forces into a “wasteland.” Ayman also asked reporters in London, “What are the circumstances under which any of us would want to go and be seen as the enemy and be seen as having come to clean up Israel's mess?”  Reuters Al Jazeera

Human Rights Watch Reports Rocket Misfire Caused Deadly Explosion at Al-Ahli Hospital. Human Rights Watch (HRW) concluded on Sunday that the deadly explosions at the Al-Ahli hospital on October 17th were likely the result of a rocket misfire. The explosion at the hospital caused outrage across the Arab world, and became one of the most contested incidents of the war, with both the Israeli and Hamas side accusing the other of responsibility.  Health officials in Gaza claim that as many as 471 were killed in the explosion. The HRW report says that the strike was likely the result of “rocket-propelled munition, such as those commonly used by Palestinian armed groups” and cites evidence including video, photo, and satellite imagery, as well as interviews with experts and witnesses. A senior Hamas official rejected the findings of the report as biased and not “decisive,” claiming a lack of evidence to support such a conclusion. Israel's Foreign Ministry also criticized the report, claiming HRW took a month to “reach half-heartedly the conclusion the whole world reached after two days.” The HRW report follows a U.S. intelligence community assessment from October that found “with high confidence” that the explosion was the result of a mechanical failure from a rocket that was fired from within Gaza.   Reuters Human Rights Watch

Palestinian Militants in West Bank say Two ‘Collaborators’ Executed.  Palestinian militants in the West Bank said that they killed two men accused of collaborating with Israeli authorities and hung up their bodies as a warning. The statement from the Tulkarm Brigades, a West Bank based group associated with the Fatah faction, said there was “no immunity for any informant or traitor”. Footage on the Tulkarm Brigade’s Telegram channel showed a man confessing to working with Israeli authorities. Other footage, which could not be verified, showed two dead bodies hung from a wall in front of an angry crowd. The Independent Commission for Human Rights, a Palestinian human rights group issued a statement criticizing extrajudicial killings. There was no comment from the Palestinian Authority. This comes as the West Bank has been experiencing its highest levels of unrest in decades for the 18 months prior to the attack from Gaza on October 7th. Reuters Associated Press

Hamas’s Al Qassam Brigades Reports Four Military Commanders Killed.  Hamas’s military wing, the Al Qassam Brigades, on Sunday revealed that four of its military commanders were killed in an Israeli operation in the Gaza Strip. The group said that Ahmad Al Ghandour, chief of the North Gaza brigade was killed, along with three other military officials. Hamas did not provide any other details about the incident. Israel on Sunday claimed to have killed five militants in a military operation prior to the four-day pause in fighting. In 2017, the U.S. State Department sanctioned Al Ghandour for his alleged involvement in terrorist activities.  New York Times Reuters 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Zelensky Thanks Military for Battling Russian Forces, Says Winter Weather ‘Challenging.’  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday praised the military for combatting Russian assaults, and thanked Ukraine’s emergency services for enduring harsh winter weather, which has reportedly cut off 400 settlements across 10 regions from the electric system. Zelensky, speaking in his nightly video message, said that intense fighting continued in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Kharkiv, while regions all over the nation were struggling with "extremely challenging weather.” Oleg Kryuchkov, a top Russia-appointed official in Moscow-controlled territory, said that almost half a million people in the annexed Crimean Peninsula were without power. The Moscow-installed leaders of Crimea, Sevastopol, and the parts of Kherson under Russian command on Monday declared days off due to flooded homes, high winds, damaged buildings, and snow-covered roads. Officials in neighboring Moldova have authorized the closing of schools and restricted vehicular traffic in some areas due to extreme winter weather. Ukrainian authorities have urged the public to preserve supplies and resources such as water, as power cuts have affected pumps. According to Ukrinform, around 131 special-purpose equipment units of the Ukrainian State Emergency Service and 500 professionals have been deployed to mitigate the effects of the severe weather. Reuters Ukrinform Kyiv Independent 

Russian Drone Attack on Kyiv Followed by Ukrainian Drone Assault on Occupied Areas, Moscow.  Russia launched a massive drone attack on the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv on Saturday.  The Ukrainian Air Force said 75 drones were launched in the attack, with 71 being intercepted and downed by Ukrainian defenses.  The attack was reportedly the largest drone assault directed at the capital since the start of the war.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky described the attack as “deliberate terror.”  Ukraine later launched drones at both Russian-occupied areas in eastern Ukraine and Russian territory, including Moscow, on Saturday night and Sunday morning.  Russia’s Defense Ministry reported that 24 Ukrainian drones were intercepted in the attack.  A Ukrainian military source told Ukrainska Pravda that 35 drones were launched in the assault.  Russian officials in occupied eastern Ukraine said the drone attack hit a thermal power plant in Starobesheve, cutting power to the regional capital, Donetsk, and in half of the port city of Mariupol.  The drone assault marked the heaviest targeting of Russian-occupied and areas, excluding Crimea, and Russian territory in at least two months, and was the first attack on Moscow since the summer.  New York Times ISW Bloomberg 

Zelensky Calls for Increased Air Defenses to Protect Grain Exports, Regions Bordering Russia.   Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday called for additional air defenses to protect Ukraine grain exports from attacks and protect the regions bordering Russia. Zelensky, speaking at an international gathering on food security in Kyiv attended by European leaders such as Swiss President Alain Berset and Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte, said that the “deficit of air defense” is “no secret.”  He added that Ukraine’s foreign allies have agreed to supply Kyiv with ships to accompany and protect convoys of cargo vessels from Ukrainian ports to secure their safety. Zelensky said that “we are being given and have already been given over the appropriate naval cutters” to ensure the security of commercial ships carrying food in the grain corridor. He also expressed hopes that new supplies from foreign partners, in addition to an increase in domestic production, would resolve Ukraine’s air defense shortage. Separately, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement on X that the Commission would provide 50 million euros for "quick repairs and upgrades of infrastructure in Ukraine's ports." Reuters Ukrinform 

Zelensky Announces Military Mobilization Reforms.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Friday that he has ordered top officials to draft proposals for reforms to the country’s military mobilization program. Zelenskiy says reforms are needed to address problems with recruitment centers and military medical commissions. Ukraine, which struggles with recruitment efforts as it counters much larger Russian forces, has faced criticism for incidents concerning rough recruitment methods. Last week, several Ukrainian legislators announced that they were working on a multifaceted legal bill to ameliorate the mobilization process. In the summer, corruption scandals and draft evasion reports prompted Zelensky to dismiss all the leaders of the nation’s regional army recruitment centers.  Reuters Jurist 

Opinion - General James L. Jones: West 'Too Cautious About Giving Ukraine Weapons’ That Could Strike Into Russia.  In an interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty posted yesterday, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander in Europe Gen. James L. Jones (Ret.) said there does not appear to be a clear picture of the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine right now, but that it does seem one thing is clear: President Vladimir Putin’s ambition to take over Ukraine will not be realized. He also said Ukraine’s war effort was slowed by a lack of air power, which is “on the way” but won’t be read for a while. Jones said it would have been better for the allies to provide Ukraine with the equipment it needed from the beginning, especially air power, and particularly since Kiyv went on the offensive. Jones said the allies were “too cautious about not giving the Ukrainians weapons that could strike into Russia,” but that the equipment now is “arriving at a faster rate.”  Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

U.S. Municipal Water Authority Reportedly Hacked by Iranian-Backed Cyber Group.  The Municipal Water Authority of Aliquippa, Pennsylvania said on Saturday that one of its booster stations was hacked by the Iranian-backed cyber group Cyber Av3ngers on Saturday.  Matthew Mottes, chairman of the board of directors for the Municipal Water Authority of Aliquippa, said the attack targeted a station that monitors and regulates water pressure for two townships and that there is no known risk to their drinking water or water supply.  Mottes added that the targeted machine uses a system called Unitronics, which he said has software or components that are Israeli-owned.  Authorities are investigating the incident.  CyberAv3ngers has claimed responsibility for several attacks worldwide, including attacks on 10 water treatment stations in Israel as of October 30.  CBS News

Pentagon’s ‘Replicator’ Program Could Accelerate Decisions on Military AI.  The Pentagon’s “Replicator” initiative to field thousands of artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled autonomous vehicles by 2026 may accelerate the U.S. military’s decisions on the usage and deployment of AI technology.  Much of the Pentagon’s over 800 AI-related unclassified projects remain in testing and are focused on augmenting human people to better gain insights.  AI-assisted tools are currently helping in tracking threats in space, anticipating maintenance needs in air fleets, tracking health needs of personnel, and bolstering surveillance capabilities.  It is unclear if the Pentagon is currently considering the deployment of fully autonomous lethal weapons.  The military’s further use of AI, including for drones under the Replicator program, will develop standards and mission goals around the new technology.  C4ISRNET

$54.7 Million in Cryptocurrency Stolen from KyberSwap in Hack.  Cryptocurrency platform KyberSwap said on Friday that it lost approximately $54.7 million worth of cryptocurrency in a cyberattack Wednesday. The company said that in response it paused deposits, began an investigation, contacted relevant parties and advised users to withdraw their funds, and began negotiations with the attackers to recover as much as possible, including offering a 10% “bounty” as an incentive for returning funds. KyberSwap called the attack “one of the most sophisticated in the history of DeFi.” Several blockchain security companies and researchers expressed agreement with that assessment. The Record

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

Asia and Oceania

China, U.S. Trade Accusations Over U.S. Destroyer in South China Sea.  China’s People’s Liberation Army Southern Theater Command said on Saturday that it deployed naval and air forces to “track, monitor and warn away” a U.S. destroyer in the South China Sea.  The U.S. Navy said that the warship, the U.S.S. Hopper, was conducting a freedom of navigation operation in the South China Sea near the Paracel Islands, in accordance with international law.  China said the incident showed that the U.S. “is an out-and-out ‘security risk creator’ in the South China Sea.”  The U.S. 7th Fleet responded by saying it challenges “unlawful and sweeping maritime claims” in the region that threaten freedom of the seas.  Reuters PACOM

China, Japan, South Korea Seeking Trilateral Leaders’ Summit.  The foreign ministers of China, Japan, and South Korea met in Busan on Sunday and agreed to restart cooperation to work towards a summit.  The three East Asian countries agreed to hold annual summits from 2008, but leaders of the three nations have not met since 2019 due to bilateral rows and the Covid-19 pandemic.  The foreign ministers did not specify a timeframe for the summit.  South Korea’s national security advisor, Cho Tae-yong, said the leaders of the three countries may not be able to meet this year but will likely have a summit in the near future.  Japan’s foreign ministry added that the three countries will work on advancing talks on security, economy, and technology to prepare for the summit.  China’s foreign ministry highlighted calls to resume negotiations on a trilateral free trade agreement.  Reuters Associated Press

Top Diplomats of U.S., Japan, South Korea Discuss North Korea’s Satellite Launch.  The U.S State Department announced on Friday that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, South Korea’s Foreign Minister Park Jin, and Japan’s Foreign Minister Kamikawa Yoko held a call to discuss North Korea’s recent spy satellite launch. North Korea said on Tuesday that it had launched its first spy satellite into orbit, drawing international condemnation for violating U.N. sanctions that prohibit the development of technology applicable to its missile programs. The State Department said in a statement that the three foreign ministers “strongly condemned the launch for its destabilizing effect on the region.”  South Korean officials said that the most recent launch most likely involved Russian technical assistance under a partnership that has seen North Korea provide artillery shells to Moscow. Russia and North Korea have denied all arms deals but promised deeper cooperation. In their call, the three top diplomats said that the international community needs to “come together to prevent (North Korea’s) procurement activities and stem the flow of revenue supporting its unlawful WMD and ballistic missile programs.”  Reuters

Foxconn Founder Drops Out of Taiwan Presidential Race.  Foxconn Technology Group founder Terry Gou on Friday ended his bid to become Taiwan’s next president. Gou’s campaign issued a statement saying that he hopes one of the opposition candidates can defeat the ruling Democratic Progressive Party in January’s election. Gou’s campaign had faced several obstacles, including an investigation on suspicion of offering cash payments in exchange for petition signatures and Beijing’s announcement of an investigation of Foxconn, which reinforced concern that Gou would be susceptible to Chinese pressure if elected.  Bloomberg

Europe

Russia Promises Retaliation As Moldova Joins EU Sanctions Against Moscow.  Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said last week that the Kremlin "will not leave unanswered" Moldova’s move to join a package of EU sanctions against Russia. The latest round of sanctions, in protest of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, target hundreds of individuals, including Moldovan nationals and those who are reportedly connected to the Russian-backed region of Transdniester on its eastern border, where Russia has posted 1,000 soldiers. Zakharova made claims that the majority of Moldovan citizens support Russia, though polls conducted in Chisinau show the opposite. RFERL Reuters

Africa

Wagner Group Leader Prigozhin’s Death Creates Opportunity for Western Powers in Central African Republic.  The death of Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in August has shaken the group’s once solid relations with the Central African Republic, which now is considering offers from Russia and Western countries, including the U.S., to replace Wagner as the country’s primary security guarantor. The outcome could be an indicator of Wagner’s future elsewhere in Africa. The Biden Administration has offered security assistance in exchange for Wagner removal from the country, according to three Central African officials briefed on the discussions. A Central African presidential security advisor says that President Faustin-Archange Touadera has until next month to decide on the U.S. offer. A State Department spokesman says the U.S. is encouraging Central African officials to “gain their independence” from the Wagner Group. Interviews with diplomats, human rights advocates and other officials suggest that Wagner has been a difficult partner and that many Central African officials would prefer to sever the relationship. Some experts, however, doubt Touadera will forego the security that Wagner provides.  New York Times

Sierra Leone says Attack on Military Barracks Repelled.  Unidentified gunmen attempted to break into the Wilberforce military barracks in Sierra Leone’s capital of Freetown early Sunday morning.  The assailants also attacked a police station and prisons and inmates were reportedly released.  Later in the day, Sierra Leone President Julius Maada Bio said most of the leaders behind the attack have been arrested and that calm has been restored.  Security operations and investigations into the matter are ongoing.  A nationwide curfew has been imposed.  It was not immediately clear if there were casualties in the attacks or how many prisoners may have been released.  Reuters Al Jazeera

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Katharine Campbell, Leighton Durham, and Emma Fisk contributed to this report. 

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