10:00 AM ET, Monday, November 20, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines:
THE TOP STORIES
Yemen’s Houthis Hijack Cargo Ship in Red Sea. Yemen’s Houthi rebels hijacked a cargo ship in the Red Sea on Sunday. The vessel is reportedly carrying 25 crew members. Yemen’s Houthi rebels have claimed responsibility for the move which they say is a “demonstration of support” for the Palestinian people. The ship is owned by a British company and operated by a Japanese firm, according to the Israeli prime minister's office. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) issued a statement saying that the ship was not an Israeli vessel. The Houthis are a Shia political and military organization based in Yemen that have been fighting a civil war in the country against a Saudi backed coalition. They have voiced support for the Palestinians and have organized protests in Yemen, against Israel’s operations in Gaza. The Houthis are supported by Iran, which denied claims that it was involved in the hijacking of the ship. CNN Reuters Associated Press NY Times
U.S., Israel and Hamas Close to Potential Deal to Pause Conflict, Free Dozens Of Hostages. Israel, the United States and Hamas are reportedly closer to an agreement that would free dozens of women and children held hostage in Gaza. In exchange for the hostages, there would be a five-day pause in fighting. As part of the tentative agreement, outlined in a six page document, all parties would freeze combat operations for a minimum of five days while "an initial 50 or more hostages are released in smaller groups every 24 hours". Hamas took about 240 hostages during its Oct. 7 attack on Israel that killed 1,200 people. There was no comment from the White House or the Israeli prime minister's office on the potential deal, but the hostage release may begin within the next few days, according to people familiar with the agreement. Qatar's prime minister says the deal now hinges on “minor” practical issues. Reuters The Washington Post France24
Ukraine Says Military has Advanced in Securing Dnipro River Bank Footholds. Ukraine’s military claimed Sunday that it managed to repel Russian units "3 to 8 kilometers" away from the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. Military spokeswoman Natalya Humenyuk said that Russia forces have continued “artillery fire on the right bank” and calculated that "several tens of thousands" of Russian soldiers are fighting against Ukraine’s progression in the area. Ukraine has tried multiple times to hold positions on the Russian-controlled bank of the river, and achieved some success earlier this month. According to a Ukrainian defense analyst, Ukraine’s forces, operating in relatively small groups of 100, have established three or four positions on the eastern bank of the river. On Sunday, the Ukrainian General Staff reported 71 skirmishes in the past 24 hours, with fierce clashes near Bakhmut and Avdiivka. The military also said that Russian artillery fire had targeted 150 settlements, damaging or destroying civilian infrastructure and private residential buildings. Russian shelling overnight in Kherson wounded two civilians, and a toddler was hospitalized for injuries sustained in a land mine. RFERL
China Threatens Australian Military Divers in Latest Maritime Incident. Australia says a Chinese warship approached an Australian navy vessel last week in an incident that injured Australian military divers. Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles said Australian divers were clearing fishing nets from the propellers of the Australian long-range frigate HMAS Toowoomba in Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone on November 14. The HMAS Toowoomba was in the area as part of efforts to enforce sanctions against North Korea. A Chinese destroyer, DDG-139, closed on the Australian vessel during the diving operation. Despite notifications from the HMAS Toowoomba about the divers, the destroyer approached “at a closer range” and used its hull-mounted sonar “in a manner that posed a risk to the safety of the Australian drivers who were then forced to exit the water.” Marles said the divers had minor injuries likely caused by the sonar and called the Chinese warship’s conduct “unsafe and unprofessional.” Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said he raised “strong objections” to Beijing over the “dangerous” incident. The Chinese embassy in Australia did not immediately comment on the matter. A spokeswoman for China’s Foreign Ministry said the Chinese military is “highly disciplined” and follows international law. She also called for the protection of the “momentum of China-Australia relations,” referencing recent improvements in ties between Beijing and Canberra since Albanese’s visit to China earlier this month, asking Australia not to make “irresponsible accusations.” Reuters Bloomberg Associated Press
South Korea Warns of North Korea Satellite Launch. South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reported today that Joint Chiefs of Staff Chief Director of Operations Kang Ho-pil said North Korea could send a satellite into orbit within the next week or so, something Seoul sees as a violation of UN Security Council resolutions. Yonhap quoted Kang as saying that if North Korea proceeds with the launch of “the military spy satellite,” the South Korean military will need to take “necessary measures,” but he did not elaborate. South Korean officials have said that while they believe a North Korean satellite would be rudimentary, it could help Pyongyang pinpoint potential targets in South Korea and Japan. South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik said yesterday that his country plans to launch its first spy satellite November 30. Bloomberg
ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR
Reporters Travel with IDF to View Tunnel Entrance Found Near Gaza's Shifa Hospital. Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) escorted a group of reporters to view the entrance of what it claims is a Hamas tunnel system under the Gaza Strip's biggest hospital. The hospital has become a focus of the IDF’s search-and-destroy mission against Hamas. Hamas acknowledges that it has a network of hundreds of kilometers of secret tunnels, bunkers and access shafts throughout the Gaza Strip, but denies that any of them are located under civilian infrastructure, including hospitals. The Israeli military says it had uncovered a tunnel 10 meters deep and running 55 meters long and leading to a blast-proof door. "This type of door is used by the Hamas terrorist organization to block Israeli forces from entering the command centers and the underground assets belonging to Hamas," said a military statement. A video was posted showing a narrow passage with arched concrete roofing ending at a gray door. Reporters traveling with the IDF confirmed that what was shown in the video was accurate, but say that it does not provide conclusive evidence that a Hamas command structure exists below the hospital. CNN says that finding out what is behind the blast door is essential to proving or disproving Israel’s claims. Reuters CNN
U.N. Calls Gaza’s Largest Hospital a ‘Death Zone.’ The U.N. issued a statement on Sunday commenting on the dire situation within the al-Shifa hospital following an inspection. The statement claimed that the remaining 260 patients and 25 health workers within the hospital should be removed immediately and were “terrified” for their safety. Israeli forces have been targeting the hospital as a center of Hamas operations, although the validity of that assumption is unknown. Videos released by the Israeli military on Sunday show tunnels under the hospital, which it claims are used by Hamas forces. Wall Street Journal New York Times South China Morning Post
Israel Claims Foreign Hostages are Being Held in Al-Shifa Hospital, Claim Soldier was Executed. On Sunday, Israeli officials made a series of claims regarding Hamas abuses in Gaza, claiming that a captive soldier was executed and that two foreign hostages were being held in the al-Shifa hospital. The hospital has since been evacuated and searched. According to Israeli Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, soldier Noa Marciano was taken by Hamas forces into the hospital and held captive until her murder. Hamas forces claim that Marciano was killed in an Israeli strike against the hospital, a claim that the Israeli military denies. Hagari also claimed that two Thai and Nepalese foreign workers were taken into the hospital as hostages. The Israeli military also published a video on Sunday depicting what it claims are Hamas bunkers and tunnels running under the Shifa building. Hamas officials acknowledged the video, saying that they have built similar structures around the Strip but never under civilian infrastructure. Gaza health ministry director Mounir El Barsh called the video “pure lies,” saying that Israeli troops had been inside the hospital for eight days and uncovered nothing connected to Hamas. Reuters
31 Premature Babies Evacuated from Al-Shifa Hospital, According to Red Crescent. According to the Palestine Red Crescent Society, 31 premature infants were evacuated from the al-Shifa hospital in Gaza on Saturday. The babies were sent to the Emirates Hospital in Rafah, Egypt, for “specialized care”. A spokesperson for the Hamas-controlled Health Ministry in Gaza, Dr. Medhet Abbas, told reporters at CNN that the “United Nations team” aided in the evacuation efforts. The children were reportedly suffering from dehydration, vomiting, hypothermia, and sepsis, according to Director Mohamed Zaqout of Gaza Hospitals. Zaqout also reported that four infants died before removal efforts reached them. CNN Al Jazeera
Israel Calls for More Civilians to Flee Southern Gaza as Airstrikes Kill 32. On Saturday, Israeli airstrikes in a residential block of southern Gaza killed at least 32 Palestinians, according to medics. Additionally, 26 Palestinians were killed in an airstrike against apartments in the residential district of Khan Younis on Saturday. Another 23 civilians were injured. Many Gazans fled to Khan Younis after the initial calls for evacuation by the Israeli military. The strikes came after Israel issued warnings on Friday to evacuate the area. More than two-thirds of Gaza’s 2.3 million citizens are displaced or homeless amid fighting in the territory. Reuters
Ministers from Arab and Islamic Countries Urge End to Hamas War in meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister. Foreign ministers from Arab and Islamic nations are in Beijing on the first stop of a tour where they plan to visit all five UN Security Council members. While meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing, the ministers called for an immediate cease-fire in Gaza and are increasing pressure on the west to halt support for Israel’s response to the Hamas attacks on Oct 7. The group includes leaders from Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Indonesia, Palestinian authorities and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation South China Morning Post Reuters
President Biden Says that Palestinian Authorities Should Govern Gaza Post-Conflict. In an opinion piece for the Washington Post on Saturday, President Biden stated his belief that Palestinian authorities should govern over the Gaza Strip and West Bank. The president said that the focus should be on creating a “two-state solution” with a “single governance structure” for the Gaza Strip and West Bank. “There must be no forcible displacement of Palestinians from Gaza, no reoccupation, no siege or blockade, and no reduction in territory,” Biden said. Prime Minister Netanyahu responded with a press conference, saying that Palestinian Authorities would be in no place to govern the territory successfully post-conflict. The Prime Minister is of the opinion that Israel should maintain control over the occupied territory “for the foreseeable future.” President Biden also condemned the violence against Palestinian civilians by Israeli settlers. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has called upon Biden to pressure Israel to stop attacks against Palestinians. Reuters Washington Post
Iraqi Militia Group Aims to ‘Drain’ U.S. Forces with Attacks in Iraq and Syria. After a Friday announcement that the U.S. would increase sanctions against members of the Iraq-based militia group Kataeb Hezbollah (KH), members of the organization swore to continue operations to “drain” U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria. U.S. officials claim that the powerful Iran-backed group has conducted 60 attacks against troops since mid-October. As many as 59 U.S. personnel have been injured. A KH official, Abu Ali Al-Askari, said on Telegram that group’s operations would be unaffected by U.S. sanctions. Al-Askari says that attacks against U.S. troops and tanks would continue. The U.S. State Department has also placed sanctions on the Syria and Iraq-based Kata'ib Sayyid al-Shuhada organization. The group’s leader, Abu Ala al-Walai, said on Telegram that the sanctions were like a “medal of honor.” The U.S. currently has around 900 troops stationed in Syria to prevent the resurgence of Islamic State. Reuters
Cipher Brief Expert Opinion: Send Hospital Ships to Gaza.Cipher Brief Expert and Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander James Stavridis says the U.S. should send its hospital ships Comfort and Mercy to the eastern Mediterranean to care for the wounded from the war in Gaza. He says sending the ships would provide significant humanitarian and medical assistance, show U.S. concern for Palestinians, and send a strong signal to other countries where there is skepticism about U.S. actions in the region. Stavridis cites the nearly two million Gazan citizens who are caught in the middle of an intense war zone, and the mounting civilian deaths as clear justification for the increase in US assistance. Gaza’s hospitals are overwhelmed, with supplies and logistics running low and are increasingly the focus of Israel’s Defense Forces (IDF) who says that Hamas uses hospital locations to shield its activities. Bloomberg
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
Russia Targets Kyiv with Weekend Drone Attack. Kyiv’s military administration said that Russia on Sunday launched multiple waves of attacks on the city for the second night in a row, intensifying assaults against the capital after a pause of 52 days. According to Serhiy Popko, chief of Kyiv's military administration, Russia’s “UAVs were launched in many groups and attacked Kyiv in waves, from different directions, at the same time constantly changing the vectors of movement along the route.” The Ukrainian Air Force claimed that its air defense systems managed to destroy 15 out of 20 Russian Shahed kamikaze drones over the regions of Kyiv, Poltava and Cherkasy. Popko said earlier that close to 10 of the drones were shot down over Kyiv and its fringes, and that there were no reports of casualties or “critical damage.” Kyiv’s regional Governor Ruslan Kravchenko reported that an infrastructure object was damaged, and Cherkasy Governor Ihor Taburets said that debris had “slightly damaged” five houses without injuring any people. Russia has not yet commented on the situation, and Reuters could not confirm the developments. Ukraine has predicted that Moscow will escalate assaults on energy networks during the winter, with President Volodymyr Zelensky saying Saturday, “the closer we get to winter, the greater Russia’s efforts will be to step up its attacks.” Reuters Al Jazeera Deutsche Welle
Zelensky says Kremlin Plotting Ukraine Destabilization Campaign, Potential Coup. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned on Thursday that Russia is plotting a destabilization campaign against UKraine that he referred to as “Madian 3.” Citing assessments from Ukrainian intelligence and information from Western countries, Zelensky said Maidan is aimed at sowing domestic dissent and chaos in Ukraine and ultimately fomenting a coup against his government. Zelensky did not provide specific evidence in his assertion. Maidan refers to the 2014 EuroMaidan Revolution that led to the ousting of pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych. That protest culminated on Kyiv’s Independence Square, known in Ukrainian as Maidan Nezalezhnosti. The term Maidan came from the 2004 Orange Revolution that prevented Yanukovych from becoming president in his first run for office, which also primarily played out at the square. Kyiv Independent Kyiv Post RFE/RL
US Secretary of Defense Austin in Kyiv. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin arrived in Kyiv on Monday. Austin who was accompanied by the commander of the U.S. European Command, says he made the trip to show the US’ “unwavering support to Ukraine in its fight for freedom". Austin’s visit comes ahead of a joint Ukraine-U.S. military industry conference in Washington set to take place December 6-7. His trip also comes amid division in Congress about future Ukraine aid. Reuters
Top Ukrainian Military Medical Chief Sacked, Senior Ukrainian Cyber Defense Officials Dismissed. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday demanded that there be rapid changes in Ukrainian operations and announced the dismissal of the commander of the military’s medical forces. Zelensky said in his nightly address that “quick action is needed for forthcoming changes” and that a “fundamentally new level of medical support for our soldiers” is necessary. This, he said, included improvement in a variety of areas, from tourniquets to digitalization to communication. The move removes Major-General Tetiana Ostahchenko as commander of the Armed Forces Medical Forces. She is being replaced by Major-General Antoliy Kazmirchuk, head of a military clinic in Kyiv. Two high-ranking Ukrainian cyber defense officials were also dismissed over alleged embezzlement on Monday. Cabinet chief Tara Melnychuk announced that Yurii Shchyhol, head of the State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection of Ukraine (SSSCIP), and his deputy, Viktor Zhora, have been fired. The dismissals came as anti-corruption prosecutors said they were investigating cyber defense officials for alleged involvement in a six-person plot to embezzle 62 million UAH ($1.72 million) in 2021. Bloomberg Financial Times Reuters Reuters
Kyiv Sanctions 100 Individuals Involved in Abduction and Deportation of Ukrainian Children. Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council on Saturday sanctioned 100 individuals for their involvement in the abduction and illegal deportation of Ukrainian children, in addition to 40 legal, Russian entities. Children of War, a Ukrainian government organization, estimates that 19,546 Ukrainian children have been taken from their homes by force, though the number is most likely even higher. In a video address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Kyiv is “increasing the pressure of our state” onto the sanctioned groups and individuals, but did not connect specific individuals or entities with particular crimes. The sanctions list revealed an array of five-year penalties against non-profit groups and 10-year penalties against individuals who were either helpful to the Russian cause or involved in the kidnapping of children. The list included former Prime Minister Mykola Azarov, ex-minister of education and science Dmytro Tabachnyk, Russian-appointed chief of Crimea Sergei Aksyonov, and Putin appointed head of Luhansk Leonid Pasechnik. Kyiv Independent Reuters
Grain ship lightly damaged off Ukraine, likely hit sea mine.According to maritime specialists and the Ukrainian government, a merchant ship transporting grain was lightly damaged off the coast of Ukraine last Thursday, likely due to a floating sea mine. This is the latest incident affecting commercial ships in the Black Sea. The vessel’s last position Friday was headed towards the Romanian port of Constanta according to ship tracking and maritime analytics provider MarineTraffic. This comes as industry sources have said that insurance premiums have risen to 3% of the value of a vessel after a missile missed a ship in the Ukrainian port of Pivdennyi last week. After withdrawing from the Black Sea grain deal in July, Ukraine says that Russia has repeatedly attacked Ukrainian ports and laid seamines. Kyiv has since opened what they label a temporary humanitarian corridor in an attempt to break Russia’s de facto blockade of the country. Reuters
Prisoner Exchanges Between Russia & Ukraine Decline. On Friday, Petro Yatsenko, spokesperson for Ukraine's Coordination Center for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, told a Ukrainian television station that Russia had “frozen exchanges” for prisoners of war since April. Exchanges have rapidly decreased this year, with only a few instances between May and August. Yatsenko claimed in his interview that this may be an attempt by the Russians to destabilize Ukrainian society by convincing families that obstacles in prisoner returns are from the Ukrainian government. Yatsenko said Ukraine would “gladly exchange” some of the Russian captives now filling Ukrainian prisons “tomorrow.” Kyiv Independent
Analysis- Ukraine Boosts Drone Production. Ukraine’s domestic drone industry has boomed since the start of Russia’s invasion. Ukraine’s military demands a significant number of drones for both reconnaissance and attacks against Russian forces. Ukrainian drone makers have both accelerated production to meet the demand and are also developing new drones to expand Ukraine’s drone capabilities. Giorgi Tskhakaia, advisor to Ukraine’s minister for digital transformation, says that Ukrainian drone production has increased “one-hundredfold, in some cases 150-fold, possibly even more.” Remaining issues include the need for stronger combat drones and uncertainty over whether to consolidate drone making efforts to mass produce specific drone types. Deutsche Welle
Analysis- Electronic Warfare Increasingly Used in Ukraine War. Electronic warfare is becoming an increasingly critical part of the Ukraine war. The tactic is used by both sides to disrupt communications, locate targets, confuse guided weapons, and, most critically, down drones. Russia has long had strong electronic warfare capabilities and has innovated to create smaller, mobile electronic weapons, such as anti-drone guns and small radio-wave jammers. Ukraine has taken a start-up approach, partnering with companies in a structured process to develop its electronic warfare capabilities. The Ukraine war is the first recent conflict between two large, relatively advanced militaries in which electronic warfare is widely used while also being developed in real time. Experts say the U.S., Europe, China and others are closely watching techniques that may be used in future electronic warfare. New York Times
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
OpenAI Names Former Twitch Chief Shear Interim CEO; Altman To Join Microsoft. OpenAI named former Twitch chief Emmett Shear as interim CEO following the surprise departure of Sam Altman, who is set to join OpenAI backer Microsoft. The appointments made late yesterday ended speculation that Altman could return to OpenAI. Microsoft Chief Executive Satya Nadella said in posts on social media platform X that Altman would become CEO of a new research group, and would be joined by Greg Brockman, who resigned as president of OpenAI following Altman’s ouster. In a statement on X, Shear dismissed speculation that the OpenAI board ousted Altman over a disagreement over the safety of AI models. Shear promised an investigation of the firing and consideration of new governance for OpenAI. He also said OpenAI would continue making technology like its chatbot available. According to an internal memo, OpenAI dismissed Altman following a “breakdown of communications.” OpenAI said Friday that Altman “was not consistently candid” in his communications with the board, but did not elaborate. Reuters New York Times Guardian
Germany, France, Italy Agree on Future AI Regulation. France, Germany, and Italy have reportedly reached an agreement on artificial intelligence (AI) regulation. A joint paper seen by Reuters says that the three governments support “mandatory self-regulation through codes of conduct” for so-called foundation models of AI and oppose “un-tested norms.” The paper adds that AI developers should use defined model cards, which provide information about a machine learning model. An AI governance body could help develop guidelines and check compliance with the model cards. Officials from the three countries have emphasized that AI regulation should target inherent risks in the application of AI rather than the technology itself. The joint paper comes days after Britain hosted its first AI safety summit and as Germany hosts a digital summit. Germany and Italy will also further discuss AI at talks in Berlin on Wednesday. Reuters
Weekend SpaceX Launch Fails Minutes After Take Off. An unmanned SpaceX Starship failed minutes after launch on Saturday, making it only slightly further than the previous attempt that resulted in an explosion. The trip was initially planned to last around 90 minutes, just long enough to breach space and return. It wasn’t until the rocket's Super Heavy first-stage booster exploded over the Gulf of Mexico that the ship was brought down. SpaceX engineer John Insprucker said in a live broadcast of the event, “We think we may have lost the second stage.” The reason for the explosion was not totally clear. In response, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration has declared that SpaceX will need to undergo an investigation and seek administration approval before another attempt is made. One SpaceX investor, Chad Anderson, told reporters, “The clock is ticking.” NASA, the main source of funding for SpaceX, wants rapid development to be able to compete with the Chinese Artemis program. “SpaceX needs to deliver on a timeline,” said Anderson. Reuters
Cyber Espionage Conducted Against Ukrainian Targets by Russian Groups Using ‘LitterDrifter’ Worm. Evidence has been found that Russian actors are using a new worm tool known as LitterDrifter in data collection against specific Ukrainian targets. The worm is unleashed once a USB is inserted into a targeted computer. It then disguises itself as a decoy file before beginning communications with the threat group’s servers. According to Check Point, a company for cyber solutions and protections, the likely goal of the data collection is espionage. There is also evidence that the worm is being used outside of Ukraine in countries like Poland, Germany, Hong Kong, and the U.S. Check Point has stated that the worm was likely “designed to support a large-scale collection operation.” The Hacker News
Japan's Kishida, S. Korea's Yoon Talk Tech, Cooperation in Silicon Valley. During a roundtable in Silicon Valley on Friday, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol promised cooperation on clean energy supply chains, quantum computing and other innovative technology. It was the latest development in the countries’ effort to improve relations, which had been in what Kishida called “deep difficulty” before he and Yoon began a campaign his year to improve them. Amid concern over increased Chinese aggression and North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs, the U.S. has been encouraging the two key Asian allies to repair relations. President Biden met with Yoon and Kishida separately and together on the sidelines of the APEC summit last week. Reuters
White House Blasts Musk's 'Hideous' Anti-Semitic Lie, Advertisers Pause on X. The White House on Friday condemned Elon Musk’s comment Wednesday that he agreed with a post on his social media platform X claiming Jews are stoking hatred against white people and that the user who made reference to the “Great Replacement” theory spoke “the actual truth.” White House spokesman Andrew Bates called Musk’s comments an “abhorrent promotion of anti-Semitic and racist hate” and “a hideous lie.” Also on Friday, several major companies said they are pausing their advertising on X. The companies include Disney, Warner Brothers Discovery and Comcast, Lions Gate Entertainment, and Paramount Global. Axios reported later that Apple also is suspending its advertising. A day earlier, IBM stopped its advertising on X following a report that its ads were placed alongside content promoting Adolf Hitler and the Nazi Party. Media Matters said it found corporate advertisements by IBM, Apple, Oracle and Comcast Xfinity also were being placed next to anti-Semitic content. Musk posted on X Friday that many of the largest advertisers “are the greatest oppressors of your right to free speech.” Reuters
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
Indo-Pacific Region
Taiwan Reports Nine Chinese Military Aircraft Cross Taiwan Strait Median Line. The Taiwanese defense ministry reported on Sunday that nine Chinese warplanes crossed the unofficial median line of the Taiwan Strait. The aircraft — including Su-30 and J-10 fighters, as well as early warning and electronic warfare planes — accompanied Chinese warships that were conducting “joint combat readiness patrols.” The ministry said Taiwan deployed its own forces to monitor the Chinese planes and ships. China’s defense ministry did not immediately comment on the matter. The renewed military activity comes after U.S.-China engagements at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco. Reuters The Guardian
Taiwan Presidential Frontrunner Selects Former Envoy to U.S. as Running Mate. Taiwanese Vice President Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the frontrunner for Taiwan’s presidency, on Monday named Taipei’s former envoy to the U.S., Hsiao Bi-khim, as his running mate in January’s presidential election. Hsiao has been Taiwan’s de-facto ambassador to the U.S. since 2020. She is well-connected and highly-trusted in Washington. She told reporters that she and Lai “have lots of common convictions” and are “willing to take on responsibility for Taiwan” and its freedom and democracy. Experts say Lai brings strong diplomatic and security experience to the DPP ticket. China views both Lai and Hsiao as separatists seeking Taiwan’s independence. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office on Wednesday called both of them an “independence double act,” adding that it is “very clear” what their partnership will mean for the “situation in the Taiwan Strait,” without elaborating. The announcement about Hsiao comes as Taiwan’s main opposition parties appear to be failing to agree on a joint candidate to counter the DPP in the upcoming vote. Al Jazeera Nikkei Asia Reuters
Taiwan’s APEC Envoy Meets Top U.S. Officials, Not China’s Xi. Taiwan’s envoy to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco — Morris Chang, the founder of chip giant TSMC — had informal discussions with President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Friday. Chang did not meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Taiwan and China are both APEC members, so the forum is one of the few in which Taiwanese and Chinese officials can interact. Chang’s attendance at the summit came as the U.S. and China agreed to resume military-to-military communications despite tensions over Taiwan and U.S. technology export controls. Reuters
Philippine President Marcos Meets China's Xi, Discuss How to Lower South China Sea Tensions. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr and Chinese President Xi Jinping met for talks on Friday. They reportedly discussed ways to de-escalate tensions in the South China Sea and reestablish Filipino fishermen's access to trawling grounds. Marcos told journalists that the two nations must maintain peace and communications, keep sea lanes and airways open, and “come up with mechanisms to lower the tensions” in the disputed waterway. Marcos said that he expressed concerns over previous confrontations between Chinese and Philippine vessels in the hotly disputed region, and requested that the two countries “go back” to the time when both “Chinese and Filipino fishermen were fishing together in these waters.” In the past, Filipino fishermen have reported harassment from Chinese coast guard and maritime militia vessels, which have hindered fishing in areas within the Philippines’ 200-mile exclusive economic zone. The Chinese embassy in the Philippines has not yet responded to requests for comment. Reuters
Japanese Military Conducts Drills on Island Seen as Vulnerable to China. Japanese marines conducted an amphibious assault on an island beach at the edge of the East China Sea on Sunday in a simulated attack against invading forces in an area Tokyo fears is vulnerable to a Chinese attack. The drill on the northwest island of Tokunoshima capped off the 11-day 05JX exercise, which was intended to establish readiness of Japan’s ground, sea, and air forces. General Yoshihide Yoshida, Chief of Staff of the Self-Defense Forces’ Joint Staff said after observing the drill that “The goal of JX is to show that if there is an emergency situation resulting from an attack, that we are able to respond in a joint way”. The scope and frequency of military exercises in Japan, including with U.S. forces, are likely to increase in the coming years as Tokyo undergoes a major military buildup and doubles its defense spending. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has warned that East Asia could become the next Ukraine if China, emboldened by Russia’s invasion, attacks Taiwan. Reuters
Hundreds of Thais Evacuated from Myanmar through China Amid Surge in Fighting. The Thai foreign ministry said on Sunday that more than two hundred Thai nationals trapped by a surge in fighting between Myanmar junta soldiers and armed ethnic-minority groups were being evacuated to Thailand via China. Myanmar’s military, which seized power in 2021, is facing its biggest test yet from armed opposition groups. The Thai foreign ministry said that 266 Thais and an unspecified number of Filipinos and Singaporeans were being evacuated from Laukkaing in northern Myanmar to the Myanmar-China border with the help of Myanmar authorities. The group will enter China and then fly on two flights to Bangkok where they will undergo screens for human trafficking and criminal records. Previously, Thai authorities said that some people trapped in Myanmar were victims of human trafficking, while others might be involved in telecom fraud gangs. The evacuation to China comes a day after 41 Thai nationals were repatriated back into Thailand after coordination between Thailand and Myanmar authorities. Reuters Al Jazeera
Maldives President Calls for Withdrawal of Indian Military. The Maldives new President Mohamed Muizzu, who campaigned on reversing the country’s “India first” policy, requested that India withdraw its military from the country. The current Indian military presence consists of approximately 75 personnel. This comes as India and China have been vying for influence within the region, with the coalition backing Muizzu considered to be more inclined towards China. At his inauguration on Friday, Muizzu said, “I will ensure that this country has no foreign military presence on its soil”. The Indian defense ministry did not comment on the matter, but an anonymous Indian official said that “it was agreed that the two governments would discuss workable solutions for continued cooperation.” Reuters
ANALYSIS- Era of Total U.S. Submarine Dominance Over China is Ending. China is catching up with the U.S. in submarine technology. One aspect of China’s advance is that its submarines are no longer as noisy and easy to track. Satellite images earlier this year showed that China launched a nuclear-powered sub with a pump-jet propulsion system instead of a propeller, marking the first time noise-reduction technology had been used on a Chinese sub. A few months earlier, satellite images of a complex in Huludao showed hull sections larger than the hulls of any existing Chinese submarine. A second modern construction hall at the plant was completed in 2021, indicating plans to increase output. Also, China has built or nearly completed several underwater sensor networks, known as the Underwater Great Wall, in waters around the Chinese coast, giving Beijing a significantly improved ability to detect foreign subs. And the Chinese military has improved its ability to find foreign subs by increasing patrol aircraft that can receive sonar information from ocean buoys. China’s submarine upgrades coincide with a continued expansion of its surface fleet, which now exceeds that of the U.S. Wall Street Journal
Middle East
Divisions Over Response to Attacks on U.S. Troops in Middle East. U.S. Defense Department officials are reportedly frustrated by what they see as an incoherent strategy for dealing with an increasing number of attacks on U.S. forces by Iranian proxies. Officials say the limited retaliatory airstrikes approved by President Joe Biden have failed to stop the attacks. Since October 17, U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria have faced almost daily assaults with rockets and drones, with at least 61 incidents and approximately the same number of injuries reported during that period. A senior defense official said the Pentagon has provided Biden with additional options, though they added that such suggestions are limited. National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said Biden has demonstrated that he will not hesitate to take action to protect U.S. forces, and that he is “fully prepared to take other measures” as needed. Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) of the Armed Services Committee said in an interview that while he doesn’t want to suggest a full-scale war with Iran, he does think “our posture has to be a little more aggressive.” Washington Post
U.S. Convicts Two Men for Attempting to Sell Iranian Petroleum. The U.S. Department of Justice said on Friday that a U.S. jury convicted two Texas men of trying to sell Iranian petroleum in violation of U.S. sanctions and conspiracy to commit money laundering. The department said the pair sought to purchase petroleum from Iran, mask its origins, and sell it to a refinery in China. The two men each face a maximum penalty of 45 years in prison. Attorneys for the two men, one of whom was president of a Texas-based company that sells oil and gas mineral rights to investment funds and private equity groups, did not respond to requests for comment. China is a major importer of Iranian oil despite U.S. sanctions on Tehran’s petroleum exports. Reuters U.S. Department of Justice
Europe
France Test-Fires Long-Range Ballistic Missile. The French Defense Ministry said on Sunday that France successfully test-fired a M51.3 long range ballistic missile, demonstrating France’s nuclear deterrence capabilities. The missile, which did not carry a nuclear weapon, was launched from the French army's Biscarosse missile testing site in the country's southwest and landed in the North Atlantic ocean "hundreds of kilometers from any coastline.” The missile follows elliptic trajectories after launch and can reach lower space. The M51.3, which is developed by aerospace firm ArianeGroup, is an upgraded version of the M51 three-stage-sea-land ballistic missile and is expected to enter service around 2025. Reuters France24 Naval News
German Government Investigates after Taliban Members Speaks at German Mosque. Abdul Bari Omar, the Taliban’s director of its food and drug authority, spoke at a mosque in Cologne on Thursday, sparking outrage in Germany. Germany’s Foreign Ministry said it strongly condemned Omar’s appearance and said that it was not informed of his visit and had not issued a visa to him. Germany’s Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser criticized Omar’s visit saying that “nobody is allowed to offer radical Islamists a stage in Germany,” adding that German hosts many Afghan refugees who escaped the Taliban. Serap Güler, a member of Germany’s parliament from Cologne and member of the parliamentary commission into the Afghanistan mission, said that she was “stunned” by the incident. Deutsche Welle
Africa
New Videos Show Alleged Atrocities Committed Against Sudanese Darfur Ethnic Groups by Military. New videos from the past week allegedly show the forced relocation of members of ethnic groups in Sudan’s Darfur region by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The video, reportedly filmed in the Ardamata region of Sudan shows members of an ethnic minority group as they are forced together by the threat of guns and whips. The video stops as the armed men begin firing shots towards the crowd. In another video, the RSF logo can be seen on the uniforms of soldiers as they force a group of Darfur men onto the ground. Following the November 7th RSF takeover, the West Darfur region has reported increases in citizen massacres, assassinations, and grave violations, according to the U.N.. Since September, the U.N. has received reports of at least 13 unmarked mass graves believed to contain murdered civilians from the Masalit tribe. A video seen last Tuesday shows men throwing dozens of bodies into a mass grave as the man behind the camera urges them to kill any survivors. The RSF denies conducting ethnic cleansing in the region. Neighboring Chad and South Sudan have reported dramatic increases in Sudanese refugees in recent weeks as violence by the RSF and other militant groups increases. CNN
G20 Summit
Putin to Participate in Virtual G20 Leaders’ Summit. Russian state TV reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin will participate in an India-hosted virtual summit of G20 leaders on Wednesday. Putin skipped the last two G20 leaders’ meetings — held in India in September and in Indonesia last year — sending Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in his place. Putin has not made many trips abroad since the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest over his alleged role in the unlawful deportation of Ukrainian children. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will chair the virtual summit, which he said will “take forward key, select outcomes/action points from the New Delhi summit.” Deutsche Welle South China Morning Post
G20 Holding Africa-Focused Conference. Leaders from more than a dozen African countries are attending the G20 Compact with Africa conference in Germany, which aims to strengthen private investment in Africa. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte are attending the summit in Berlin, hosted by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Scholz held bilateral talks with several African nations on Sunday ahead of the summit. The meeting comes as the U.S., Europe, China, and Russia compete for influence in Africa. The Compact with Africa was created in 2017 under Germany’s G20 presidency and aims to bring together reform-minded African countries, international organizations, and bilateral partners to coordinate development efforts and discuss investment opportunities. Deutsche Welle Reuters
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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Katharine Campbell, Leighton Durham, Ryan Simons, and Emma Fisk contributed to this report.
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