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10:00 AM ET, Monday, July 10, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

Biden Heads to Europe with Goal of Maintaining NATO Unity Amid Multiple Difficult Issues.  The Washington Post has a new report that examines the issues facing President Biden as he heads to Europe this week where he will ultimately attend the NATO summit in Vilnius.  Maintaining NATO unity amid Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine is a top priority as some analysts have pointed to some recent and visible disagreements among NATO members, most notable over the issue of Ukrainian membership and the US decision to send cluster munitions to Kyiv.  The chance that Ukraine will be invited to join NATO this week is almost zero according to analysts, the alliance may offer Kyiv some idea on what the membership path would look like in terms of timing, and some are calling for enhanced security guarantees in the interim. Also, on Biden’s agenda is navigating the issue of Sweden’s membership bid, currently held up by NATO members Turkey and Hungary.  Before the NATO summit Biden will visit the UK where he will meet with British PM Rishi Sunak and King Charles III.  Washington Post  

Biden Talks Ukraine, China and more in Foreign Policy Interview with CNN.  US President Joe Biden spoke with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria where he says that Ukraine is not yet ready for NATO members.  Biden’s comments come just before he attends the NATO summit this week in Vilnius, Lithuania.  Biden says that the war with Russia must end first, and that certain other conditions must improve before Ukraine can be admitted.  Biden says he spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at length on the topic where he also committed to continuing to provide Ukraine with weapons and support.  On other foreign policy issues, Biden says he told Chinese President Xi Jinping to “be careful”, following Xi’s March meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.  Biden says he did not mean the comments as a threat but an observation and noted that since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine more than 600 American companies have pulled out of Russia, the message to Xi being that at some point Chinese support for Russia could also threaten western investment in China, a point that Xi has previously touted as a necessary component of Chinese financial growth.  CNN Reuters

Yellen Calls for Market Reforms and Offers Criticism for Beijing’s Anti-Western Actions. On Friday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called for market reforms in China and criticized China’s tough actions towards U.S. companies and mineral exports. In a visit aimed at repairing the tenuous U.S.-Chinese economic relationship, Yellen made clear that the U.S. and its allies would continue to push back against “unfair economic practices.”  In her meeting with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, Yellen told Li that “we seek a healthy economic competition that is not winner-take-all but that, with a fair set of rules, can benefit both countries over time.”  After their meeting, Li called for strengthened communication, consensus on economic issues, and pragmatic exchanges to help put bilateral relations back on track “soon.”  During her trip, Yellen criticized China’s planned economy and called for Beijing to return to more market-oriented practices. Yellen additionally dismissed the idea of the U.S. and Chinese economies decoupling. Reuters Nikkei Asia South China Morning Post New York Times 

Twitter Blue Accounts Amplify Ukraine War Misinformation.  BBC’s Verify team is out with a new report that says some of the most widely shared recent false and misleading posts about the Russia-Ukraine war have been shared widely by Twitter Blue users.  Blue accounts, which are noted by a blue checkmark are accounts where the owners pay an extra monthly fee to have their content promoted to others.  The BBC Verify team found evidence to debunk four recent misinformation campaigns that claimed western-provided weapons were used in the French riots, that there were baby factories in Ukraine, a missile attack that killed eight people in Eastern Ukraine recently was a Ukrainian missile and that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had canceled elections. The posts were found to have originated from known sources of fake news and were viewed millions of times on twitter.  BBC Verify says they reached out to the Twitter Blue team, who acknowledged receipt of the inquiry but did not provide a statement or response.  BBC

Western Europe

Erdogan Links Turkey’s EU Membership to Approval for Sweden’s NATO Bid.  Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday that Ankara could support Sweden’s NATO membership bid if Europe moves to “open the way” for Turkey to join the EU.  He argued that it is time for Turkey to join the EU as it has been waiting to join the bloc “for over 50 years” and that most NATO countries are now EU members as well.  Turkey’s EU membership bid has been held up over the country’s democratic backsliding and tensions with EU-member Cyprus.  Erdogan’s comments mark his strongest indication of Turkey supporting Sweden's accession to NATO, which Ankara has blocked over concerns that Stockholm harbors members of groups that Turkey views as terrorist organizations.  Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billström voiced optimism on the matter on Monday, saying that Sweden is waiting for a “green light” from Erdogan to indicate the Turkish parliament will start ratifying Sweden’s NATO membership bid, explaining that it is now a question of when, not if, Sweden will join the alliance.  Associated Press France24

Biden Pushes Erdogan on Sweden’s NATO Membership.  During a phone call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Sunday, President Joe Biden expressed his desire to see Sweden officially join NATO, according to a statement from The White House. Turkey and Hungary have continued to hold up Sweden’s attempt to join the Western alliance. Erdogan reportedly told Biden that Sweden has taken steps in the right direction to get support from the country, but they need to do more to stop the Kurdistan Workers Party supporters protesting in Sweden.  Reuters

Poland Deploys Additional Troops to Eastern Border Region Amid Wagner Fears.  Poland announced new troop deployments to its eastern border with Belarus over the weekend.  The moves, which include over 1000 new troops and 200 pieces of equipment, come amid concerns that the presence of Wagner Group fighters in Belarus could increase tension in the region. On Saturday, a senior Wagner commander made comments that suggest some Wagner fighters will indeed relocate to Belarus as part of a deal struck with Moscow following an attempted mutiny in Russia.  Last week Poland announced that it would send an additional 500 police to the border region to bolster security amid a surge in migrants attempting to enter Poland from Belarus.  Poland has accused Belarus of creating an artificial immigrant crisis by flying in people from other countries including Morocco, India and Ethiopia and having them attempt to cross illegally into Poland.  BBC Reuters

Poland Arrests Ukrainian National on Suspicions of Espionage.  Polish Interior Minister Mariusz Kaminski reported Monday that Poland has arrested a Ukrainian citizen who is accused of being a member of a Russian spy network, the 15th individual to be detained in an investigation into Russian intelligence activities.  Poland has accused Moscow of sending spies and attempting to destabilize the nation, which has become a center for Western military supplies for Ukraine.  Kaminski said Monday on Twitter that the Ukrainian suspect, who had lived in Poland since 2019, “kept surveillance of military facilities and seaports'' and was “systematically paid by the Russians.” The Russian embassy in Warsaw has not yet commented on the matter.  If found guilty, the suspect could face up to a decade in prison.  Prosecutors said that he will be held in pre-trial detention, and that future arrests as part of the investigation are a possibility.  Polish officials said in March that they had infiltrated and broken up a Russian spy network, arresting 9 people who were allegedly surveilling rail routes to Ukraine and planning acts of sabotage.  Poland also detained a professional ice-hockey player from Russia in June on charges of espionage.  Al Jazeera  Reuters Anadolu Agency   

Germany Opposes Sending American Cluster Munitions to Ukraine.  German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock inferred on Friday that Germany does not support sending cluster munitions to Ukraine.  In response to questions about the U.S. decision to send the controversial weapons to Kyiv, she said: “For us, as a state party, the Oslo agreement applies."  Her comment referenced the Convention on Cluster Munitions, which bans the use, stockpiling, production, and transfer of cluster munitions.  Germany and 110 other state parties are signatories to the agreement, while the U.S. is not.  Baerbock’s remarks came as the Biden administration announced it is approving the transfer of cluster munitions to Ukraine.  Reuters 

Germany Deploys Troops to Australia for Joint Exercises.  For the first time, Germany will deploy 240 German soldiers, including 40 marines and 170 paratroopers, to Australia for joint military exercises with around 30,000 other troops from 12 countries. The Talisman Sabre drills, which are held biannually between the US and Australia, will take place from July 22 to August 4, and emphasize Berlin’s heightened interest in the Indo-Pacific amidst a period of intensifying tensions with China in the area. German Army chief Lieutenant General Alfons Mais told Reuters that “it is a region of extremely high importance for us in Germany as well as for the European Union due to the economic interdependencies,” and stressed that Berlin seeks to show that “we are reliable and capable partners that contribute to stabilizing the rules-based order in the region.”  Mais also said that Germany does not aim to provoke China, its biggest trade partner, with this move.  German troops will be trained in landing operations and jungle warfare with other soldiers from nations including France, Britain, Japan, Indonesia, and South Korea.  Berlin deployed 13 aircraft to Australia last year for joint drills.  Al Jazeera  Reuters 

Dutch Prime Minister Rutte Resigns Over Migration Policy Stalemate.  The Netherlands’ Prime Minister Mark Rutte, the nation’s longest serving government head, said Monday that he will not run for a fifth term and will step away from politics after the November elections.  Rutte, the leader of the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), resigned on Friday after his coalition government collapsed over disagreements concerning stricter migration policies, which fell through.  Rutte told reporters that “it is no secret that the coalition partners have very different views on migration policy . . . and today, unfortunately, we have to draw the conclusion that those differences are irreconcilable.”  In a speech to parliament, Rutte also said “there’s been a lot of speculation about what motivated me. The only answer is the Netherlands.”  The creation of a new government will take months, and the process will begin after the elections in the winter.  Al Jazeera CBS News Associated Press 

Central and Eastern Europe

Kremlin Says Putin, Prigozhin Met After Wagner Group Uprising.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin and more than 30 other leaders of the mercenary organization on June 29, just five days after the group’s March on Moscow.  Peskov said that during the meeting, which reportedly lasted 3 hours, Putin offered an “assessment” of Wagner’s actions in Ukraine and during the uprising.  He also “listened to the explanations” of the Wagner commanders about the mutiny and “offered them options for further employment and further use in combat.”  Peskov added that the Wagner commanders emphasized that they are “staunch supporters and soldiers of the head of state and the commander-in-chief.”  Associated Press CNN

Ukraine Advances in Southeast and Maintains the 'Initiative,' Says Zelensky.  President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukrainian forces have “taken the initiative” in the war, continuing to advance in southeastern Ukraine after an initially slow start to the long-awaited counteroffensive.  According to an early Monday update from military officials, Ukrainian forces have reclaimed more than 65 square miles (169 square kilometers) on the southern front and 24 sq km around Bakhmut since the counteroffensive began in June.  They added that an increase in advanced Western weapons has aided significantly in turning the tide of the conflict.  Russian sources have reported intense fighting in Bakhmut, which was taken by Wagner Group mercenaries in May.  Ramzan Kadyrov, a pro-Russia Chechen head, said he had deployed one of his "Akhmat" units in the region near Klishchiivka.  The Ukrainian counter-offensive is centered on claiming a group of settlements in the southeast and retaking zones near Bakhmut. Ukrainian deputy defense minister Hanna Maliar said that "we are consolidating our gains” in two southeastern areas, as Moscow continues to defend Bakhmut and Ukrainian troops make "a certain advance" on the southern flank of the city.  In an interview with ABC, Zelensky admitted to the slow pace of the counteroffensive but said that “we want to do it faster because every day means new losses of Ukrainians. We are advancing. We are not stuck." The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that its forces had defended against Ukrainian advances close to Bakhmut, with the fighting complicated "not only by the daily intensity of fire and battle, but also by topography” because “the line of contact runs between two hills."  Reuters Kyiv Independent

Zelensky Brings Azovstal Commanders Back to Ukraine from Turkey in Symbolic Diplomatic Victory.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky returned from Turkey on Saturday where he had met with Turkish President Erdogan.  Accompanying Zelensky were five former Ukrainian military commanders who had participated in leading the three-month defense of the Azovstal steel plant during the battle of Mariupol.  The five individuals had been in Turkey as part of a prisoner deal with Russia that required the commanders to remain in Turkey.  Moscow immediately denounced the release of the five, which it says violates the deal.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov says that Moscow was not informed ahead of time.  In remarks, Zelensky offered no specifics on what led to the highly symbolic release of the veterans which coincided with the 500th day of the war. Zelensky also marked the 500th day of the war by a visit to Snake Island, the Black Sea outcrop that was seized by Russia in the early days of the war, before being abandoned and retaken by Ukraine.  Reuters Wall Street Journal Associated Press Al Jazeera

Russia Intercepts Missiles over Crimea & Regions Bordering Ukraine. Russian officials claim their air defenses downed four missiles on Sunday: three over Russia’s western Bryansk and Rostov zones that border Ukraine and one over the Crimean Peninsula, which was seized by Russia from Ukraine in 2014.  Crimea’s Moscow-backed Governor Sergei Aksyonov reported on Telegram that forces downed a cruise missile close to the city of Kerch on the annexed peninsula.  Aksyonow said there were no casualties or damage but did not identify the location from which the missile was launched.  According to local authorities, the launch forced them to briefly suspend traffic on the Crimean Bridge, which connects the peninsula to the mainland of Russia.  Separately, Rostov Governor Vasily Golubev said air defenses downed a Ukrainian missile over his region.  He said the attack caused no casualties, though “debris partially damaged the roofs of several buildings.”  Meanwhile, Bryansk Governor Alexander Bogomaz said the Russian military downed two Ukrainian missiles over his region, with debris destroying a sawmill.  Moscow frequently blames Kyiv for attacks within Russia territory, though Ukraine maintains that it is only involved in defensive conflicts on its own soil.  Reuters Al Jazeera  

Russian Strike on Zaporizhzhya Region Kills 4.  Ukrainian officials report that a Russian strike on the town of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhya region killed four people and injured at least 11 others on Monday.  The governor of the Zaporizhzhya region, Yuriy Malashko, called the attack a “war crime” and claimed that a guided aerial bomb was used in the attack.  He added that Russia launched attacks on 10 settlements in the region on Sunday.  Associated Press Reuters

Ukraine Says Cluster Munitions Will Only Be Used Inside of Ukrainian Territory. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov welcomed the U.S.’s decision to send cluster munitions to Kyiv and said that Ukraine would keep a strict record of their use, which it will communicate with its partners.  Reznikov added that the weapons will only be used to “liberate our temporarily occupied territories” and will not be used inside of Russia.  Cluster bombs, which indiscriminately release large numbers of smaller bombs, have been banned in over 100 countries.  Critics of the weapons say they put civilians at risk, especially due to high failure rates that leave unexploded munitions after the conflict.  Moscow criticized the U.S.’s decision to give Ukraine the weapons and said on Saturday that it is another “egregious" example of Washington's "anti-Russian" course.  Reuters Washington Post

Wagner Fighters Reportedly Moving to Belarus in August.  A senior commander from the Wagner Group said on Telegram on Saturday that some fighters of the group were preparing to move to Belarus.  Anton Yelizarov, who goes by the name “Lotus”, says that Wagner fighters are on vacation until August, under orders of the group’s leader Yevgeny Prighozin, and are preparing to move to camps in Belarus.  Yelizarov says that time is needed to coordinate and make logistics preparations for the move.  An advisor to the Belarusian Defense Ministry said over the weekend that so far no one from Wagner group had visited the former military base that has been offered to Wagner Group in Belarus.  Reuters

Western Intelligence Agencies on the Hunt for signs of Wagner Group and Nukes in Belarus.  U.S. and European officials are on the lookout for movement from the Wagner Group following the failed uprising in June and for the appearance of nuclear warheads in Minsk. On Thursday, Belarus’s President Alexander Lukashenko stated on CNN that the head of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is still in St. Petersburg, Russia.  He added that if Prigozhin and the Wagner Group choose to relocate to Belarus, they would have to sign a contract with the Belarusian Government.  Additionally, signs of nuclear warheads and the facilities to store them have not been sighted even though President Lukashenko announced that preparation would be complete by July 7.  CNN

NATO Protects Vilnius with Enhanced Military Capabilities Ahead of Summit.  NATO has bolstered the defenses of Vilnius as leaders from more than 40 countries descend on the tiny Baltic nation for this week’s NATO summit.  Vilnius, which sits just 20 miles from Belarus has been turned into a fortress with advanced weapon systems brought in by alliance members.  Germany has deployed 12 Patriot missile systems, Spain has deployed a NASAM’s unit while France, Finland and Denmark have moved fighter jets into the region and Poland, along with Germany have reportedly moved special operations forces in for contingency operations.  Lithuania has also increased the number of border guards at the Belarus and Russian borders for the summer, a measure that Chief of Lithuania’s Border Patrol says is in preparation for potential “provocations”.  Reuters

Turkey’s Erdogan Says Ukraine “Deserves” NATO Membership.  Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated on Saturday during a joint press conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that Turkey support’s Ukraine NATO membership aspirations but has also urged for a “return to peace efforts” to end the war. This comes after Zelensky had visited the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Bulgaria in order to drum up support before the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania from July 11-12. The timeline for Ukraine’s ascension to NATO is unclear.  Separately, Erdogan will receive Russian President Vladimir Putin next month to discuss possible prisoner swaps between Russia and Ukraine. Furthermore, President Erdogan will also discuss the extension of a deal that allows Ukraine to ship grain to the global markets from ports in the Black Sea which is currently set to expire on July 17.  Al Jazeera CNN

Slovakia Says NATO Summit Should Provide Kyiv Clear Path to Membership. Slovakian President Zuzana Caputova says that Ukraine needs a clear view this week on its bid to become a part of NATO.  His comments follow a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky who was in Slovakia on the third stop of a tour of NATO countries he was visiting in order to muster support for Kyiv’s bid to join the western alliance. Caputova additionally stated that Ukraine joining the alliance was a question of “when, not if”, and that Ukraine was also a potential EU member. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated Friday that NATO’s leaders will reaffirm that Ukraine will become a member and consider how to bring Kyiv close to this goal when they meet this coming Tuesday and Wednesday in Lithuania. NATO leaders are currently divided on how quickly they should make moves to integrate Ukraine into the alliance.  Reuters

Russia Accuses Norwegian-Based NGO of Attempting to Destabilize Russia.  On Friday, Russia said that it is banning the Human Rights House Foundation (HRHF), a Norwegian based human rights group. HRHF is a coalition of 80 independent organizations which advocate for the freedom of expression and assembly within the western Balkans, the Caucasus, and eastern Europe. Much of its funding comes from the EU based private donors and governments. The Russian government stated that the HRHF’s activities were “undesirable” and accused the group of aiming to destabilize the domestic political situation in Russia, discredit its foreign policy, discredit the Russian armed forces, and “shape public opinion about the need to change power in an unconstitutional way”. This move follows crackdowns on many NGOs within Russia.  Reuters 

Asia and Oceania

China Strengthening Naval Capabilities and Expanding Bases.  China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy is rushing to expand its naval houses and piers to support its rapidly growing combat fleet.  Satellite imagery shows upgrades over the last year on at least two large piers at the Yulin base on China’s southern island of Hainan, as well as at the Huludao shipyard and Bohai submarine building plant in the northern Liaoning province.  There is also evidence of a new runway and pier, which can accommodate giant surface platforms like the Liaoning aircraft carrier, at China’s only overseas base in Djibouti.  These expansions come as China adds a number of vessels to its naval fleet, with at least 10 surface combatants — including eight destroyers and two frigates — set to be added this year to bring China’s total number of active warships to 600.  South China Morning Post

China Touts Successful Test of New Underwater Listening Capabilities in Arctic.  China is set to construct a massive monitoring network in the Arctic Ocean following the successful field testing of a new underwater listening device.  The Polar Research Institute of China said the network can be used for “subglacial communication, navigation and positioning, target detection and the reconstruction of marine environmental parameters.”  The network relies on an acoustic monitoring buoy which has a vector hydrophone that can collect sound pressure data, which can be used to track sound-emitting sources.  The institute said the buoy can be “massively used” in the Arctic as it is built at low cost with mature technology that can withstand the harsh conditions of the region.  It is unclear if the listening network is already under construction, though it is certain to escalate tensions amongst competing powers in the Arctic.  The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) reports that China’s Arctic activities are focused on scientific knowledge, ranging from sea ice to marine life studies, but the listening network could be used for oceanographic surveys and acoustic modeling which could be useful for Chinese naval operations.  South China Morning Post 

North Korea Warns It Will Down U.S. Spy Planes, Condemns Presence of U.S. Strategic Nuclear Assets in Region.  North Korea’s defense ministry on Monday accused the U.S. of violating its airspace with surveillance planes and drones and signaled that it may shoot down such flights in the future.  A spokesman from the ministry warned that “there is no guarantee that a shocking accident as the downing of the U.S. Air Force strategic reconnaissance plane will not happen” in waters east of the Korean peninsula.  Kim Yo Jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, later said Pyongyang will respond if the U.S. military enters the North’s economic zone again.  South Korea’s military said claims of airspace violations are not true and that U.S. surveillance assets regularly work around the peninsula, in coordination with Seoul.  The ministry’s warnings came as North Korean state media condemned U.S. plans to deploy strategic nuclear assets to Korea as “the most undisguised nuclear blackmail.”  The U.S. and South Korea agreed to facilitate the introduction of such assets to the region to deter North Korea.  So far, U.S. B-52 bombers have conducted joint drills with South Korean forces and a U.S. nuclear-powered cruise missile submarine visited Busan last month.  A U.S. nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarine is set to visit South Korea as well, though a timeline for the visit has yet to be finalized.  Al Jazeera Reuters South China Morning Post

Chinese Military Incursions Near Taiwan Overlap with U.S. Treasury Secretary’s Visit.  The Chinese People’s Liberation Army sent 13 aircraft and 6 vessels into both airspace and waters around Taiwan over the past 24 hours on Saturday, overlapping with United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Taiwan’s Defense Ministry announced that during those 24 hours, two SU-30 fighters, one BKZ-005 reconnaissance plane, and one Y-8 anti-submarine warfare plane had crossed the median line that serves as the de-facto border between the two sides. Prior to Yellen’s visit, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited the headquarters of the People’s Liberation Army Eastern Theater on Thursday, stressing efforts to “break new ground for theater command development and war preparedness.”  Associated Press

Japan Protests South Korean Military Drills at Disputed Islands.  Japan’s foreign ministry lodged a protest with South Korea for holding military drills at a group of disputed islets, which Japan calls Takeshima and South Korea calls Dokdo.  The ministry called the drills “extremely regrettable” and summoned a senior diplomat from the South Korean embassy in Tokyo in protest. The Japanese embassy in Seoul also summoned a senior South Korean official to protest.   South Korea’s military said the drill was conducted to “protect our territory, people and property,” adding that it holds the drills routinely every year.  Reuters 

Philippines Warns of Increased Chinese Maritime Activity in Disputed Waters. The Philippine military warned on Friday that it has seen an “alarming” increase in Chinese fishing vessels in disputed waters in the South China Sea. According to the Philippine Military’s Western Command (WESCOM), the number of Chinese fishing vessels “swarming” just south of Reed Bank, an oil and gas rich area, has risen to 47 from only 12 in February. Although not recognized by China, the Philippines won an arbitration case in 2016 which solidified its right to a 200-mile exclusive economic zone and access to offshore oil and gas fields within the zone, including at Reed Bank. U.S Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told his Philippine counterpart that the U.S. commitment to the defense of the Philippines was “ironclad,” including within the South China Sea. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin accused the United States of “sowing discord” between countries in the region and maintained that actions of the Chinese Coast Guard were legitimate. The Philippine military also reported that it had recorded the presence of three Chinese Coast Guard ships and two naval vessels loitering within the Philippine exclusive economic zones.  Reuters

SpaceX’s Starlink Set to Launch in Mongolia.  Mongolia announced on Friday that it has granted two licenses to Elon Musk’s SpaceX to operate as an internet service provider in the country, giving Mongolians access to the company’s Starlink satellite communications service.  Starlink has over 3,500 satellites in low-Earth orbit which can provide internet connectivity to remote areas.  Mongolia already has high fiber optic cables for high-speed internet access, but its government said Starlink will help connect “hard-to-reach areas.”  Starlink has been used extensively in Ukraine to help its military communications amid Russia’s invasion.  Reuters

Malaysian PM to Meet Tesla CEO Musk.  Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said on Friday that he will meet with Tesla CEO Elon Musk for potential investments in the Southeast Asian country.  Anwar did not say when the meeting will take place or further elaborate on what the talks will cover.  Malaysia’s Trade Ministry announced in March that it approved Tesla’s application to import battery-run electric vehicles into Malaysia and set up charging stations for its cars in the country.  Reuters 

Middle East and Northern Africa

ISIS Leader Usamah al-Muhajir Killed in Eastern Syria.  U.S. Central Command announced on Sunday that ISIS leader Usamah al-Muhajir had been killed by an MQ-9 drone strike in eastern Syria on Friday. Washington has stepped up raids and operations against suspected ISIS operatives who had taken shelter in areas under Turkish-backed rebel control after the group lost access to its territory in Syria in 2019.  U.S. military commanders still consider ISIS a significant threat within the region, but its capabilities have been limited and its ability to re-establish networks has been weakened. There still remain approximately 1,000 U.S. troops deployed in Syria to combat the remains of ISIS. No civilians were killed during the operation, but allies in the region are assessing reports of civilian injuries.  Reuters Al Jazeera

Syrian and Russian Military Moved Quickly on Wagner in Syria as Mutiny Unfolded.  As Wagner mercenaries attempted a mutiny in Russia late last June, Syrian authorities and Russian military commanders in Syria took swift measures against local Wagner forces in order to prevent the mutiny from spreading to other regions.  According to anonymous sources, these actions consisted of blocking phone and internet lines, summoning approximately a dozen Wagner commanders from their posts to a Russian military base, and ordering Wagner fighters to sign new contracts with the Russian defense ministry or to promptly leave Syria.  The Wagner presence in Syria is relatively small at between 250 to 450 personnel, roughly one tenth of the estimated strength of the Russian military there, according to Syrian sources.  Russia deployed its military forces to Syria in 2015 to help Syrian President Bashar al-Assad repel rebel forces intent on toppling his government.  Wagner forces have since been involved in many combat operations and security for oil installations in Syria.  However, analysts say that Wagner’s role in Syria is now over following the group’s march on Moscow.  Reuters

Sub Saharan Africa

US Sending Diplomat to Africa to Discuss Sudan Conflict.  U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Molly Phee, is set to travel to the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa this week to meet with African leaders to discuss how to end the Sudan conflict, according to the State Department. Phee is also expected to meet with Sudanese civilians during the trip. So far, diplomatic efforts to end the fighting between Sudan’s army and its paramilitary Rapid Support Forces have been largely ineffective since fighting began on April 15.  Reuters 

Egypt Hosting Summit to Discuss Sudan Conflict.  Egypt announced on Sunday that it will host a summit of Sudan’s neighbors this week to discuss how to end the current conflict and humanitarian crisis in the country.  Diplomatic efforts have been ineffective in ending the 12-week conflict. So far, Egypt, which is one of Sudan’s main allies, has not yet played a large public role in resolving the conflict, and were not involved in last month's talks between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia to try and end the conflict. Reuters 

Air Strike Kills 22 in Sudan, UN Secretary General Calls for End to Fighting.  The Sudanese military reportedly conducted an airstrike in the western city of Omdurman in Khartoum state on Saturday, killing at least 22 people.  UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned the attack and added that he is appalled by reports of widespread violence and casualties in Sudan’s Darfur region.  The war between Sudan’s military factions has now reached its 12th week.  Reuters

Cyber and Tech

New German Cybersecurity Chief Notes Increasing Threats from Russia, China.  The new head of Germany’s information security office, Claudia Plattner, has underscored the need for the country to step up its defenses against cybersecurity attacks against hospitals, local government systems, and the private sector. Speaking to journalists, Plattner warned in particular that cyberattacks against German targets are on the rise from Russia, China, and Iran, with a special emphasis on Germany’s critical infrastructure.  Plattner moved to her new position with the Federal Office for Information Security (BSI) from her previous post as director general for information systems at the European Central Bank.  A German newspaper has reported that Nancy Faeser, the BSI minister, is planning additional authorities for the cybersecurity agency from its current limited role in providing administrative assistance in response to a cyberattack.  The Record

Huawei Expects In-House Developed Processors To Be Used in National AI Sector.  Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei has released an updated version of its AI chatbot, known as Pangu, which focuses on a variety of industrial sectors including coal mining and finance.  According to the company, the new AI model employs processors developed in-house.  Huawei says it aims to help Chinese companies develop their own AI models through its Ascend AI processors and AI framework, which is the foundation of the Pangu product.  The Ascend AI cluster, the company says, can achieve training efficiency 1.1 times higher than mainstream GPUs, but did not describe the benchmark used to compare its technology with rivals.  Zhang Pingan, CEO of Huawei Cloud, noted that domestic demand for computing power is surging, leading to high prices for Nvidia processing units as well as long delays in delivery.  In these circumstances, Zhang said, “we hope to offer an alternative in terms of AI computing power.”  Zhang referred to the limited focus of its AI model, explaining that Pangu “will not write poems; we only do business.”  Earlier Pangu releases have been applied to detection of abnormalities in coal mines and identifying flaws in railway cars.   South China Morning Post

Huawei Announces AI-Enabled Weather Algorithm Adept at Medium-Term Forecasts.  Huawei researchers have announced development of an AI-powered global weather algorithm that provides faster, more accurate weather forecasts than traditional methods.  The company says its “Pangu-Weather” model is capable of forecasts in seconds on a number of weather elements such as humidity, wind speed, temperature, and atmospheric pressure.  According to the research team, Pangu-Weather is the first AI model to produce more accurate results than the statistical prediction model used around the world.  The team said its experiments demonstrated that the AI-powered model performed at a rate “10,000 times” faster than the European model regarded as the most powerful forecasting tool in use today.  Pangu-Weather is a medium-range forecast tool, covering a period up to two weeks in the future, a useful capability for projecting disaster conditions.  Dr Tian Qi, lead scientist on the Huawei Cloud project, noted in the team’s paper announcing the achievement that “our algorithm achieved high accuracy in tracking 88 named tropical cyclones in 2018, including some (for example, Typhoon Kong-rey and Typhoon Yutu) that remain a challenge for the world’s best tracking systems.”  South China Morning Post

Chinese Institute Developing Domestic Standard for AI Language Models.  A component of China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) will be responsible for developing and putting into practice national standards for large language models (LLM’s), the backbone technology used to train AI chatbots.  The China Electronic Standardization Institute is working on a new domestic LLM standard for the expanding AI development initiatives across the country.  The institute did not describe the standard under development but announced it is collaborating with Baidu, China’s leading Internet and AI firm, and telecommunications giant Huawei, among other Chinese technology companies.  The coalition will form a special task force to define the LLM standard.  South China Morning Post

CISA Advises MOVEit Tool Users to Implement Patches Against New Vulnerabilities.  Three new vulnerabilities in the MOVEit file transfer tool have triggered a CISA warning to tool users to make use of a new package of bug patches released by Progress Software, the MOVEit tool’s producer.  CISA advised that threat actors could exploit the new vulnerabilities in operations to extract sensitive information.  One of the bugs, CVE-2023-36934, was described as a “critical” vulnerability “that could allow an attacker to access or modify MOVEit database content.”  The other vulnerabilities are deemed “high severity” that could lead to either unauthorized access to the MOVEit database or shutting down the software completely.  In response to the string of MOVEit vulnerabilities, Progress Software will introduce monthly security updates featuring a streamlined software upgrade process that will allow MOVEit Transfer admins to apply quicker and easier fixes.  The Record BleepingComputer

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