10:00 AM ET, Monday, January 8, 2024
Daily national security briefings aren’t just for the president anymore. The Cipher Brief uses AI partnered with human analysis and expert perspective to keep you up-to-date on national security news from around the world.
Here’s what’s happening now:
THE TOP STORIES
Flawed Chinese missiles led to military purge, U.S. intelligence says. US intelligence indicates that President Xi Jinping's military purge in China was driven by widespread corruption that undermined efforts to modernize the armed forces and raised doubts about China's ability to wage war. US officials believe that corruption within China's Rocket Force and the defense industrial base has eroded confidence in its military capabilities. Examples cited include missiles filled with water instead of fuel and missile silos with malfunctioning lids. Despite the purge, US assessments suggest that Xi has not been weakened and that he is serious about improving discipline, eliminating corruption, and preparing China's military for long-term combat readiness. The corruption crackdown has ensnared over a dozen senior defense officials in what may be China's largest military crackdown in modern history. Bloomberg
Israeli air strike kills Hezbollah leader in Lebanon. An Israeli airstrike in south Lebanon killed a senior commander in Hezbollah's elite Radwan force, Wissam al-Tawil, along with another Hezbollah fighter on Monday. This attack marks a significant development in the ongoing tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. Israeli strikes have killed over 130 Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon since October, following Hamas's attack on Israeli territory. Hezbollah's leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, warned against a full-scale war with Lebanon, emphasizing that those who pursue it will regret their decision. Reuters
ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR
Blinken meets with Middle East leaders with focus on cooperation after war. Blinken meets middle east partners for Talks on Next Chapter for Gaza. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is engaging with Arab and Turkish leaders to discuss the governance of Gaza after the ongoing conflict there. This marks a shift in focus towards post-war planning as the Gaza conflict has sparked regional concerns. Blinken's discussions aim to gather regional support for potential governance solutions in Gaza. U.S. officials are hopeful that the prospect of renewed efforts to normalize ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel, along with potential regional involvement in rebuilding Gaza, will encourage cooperation in post-war planning. Blinken says one of his takeaways from the trip is that some regional leaders are “willing to have these difficult conversations and to make hard decisions.” However, the region still faces challenges, including widespread anger towards Israel and concerns about the Palestinian Authority's governance capabilities and Blinken warned that the conflict could easily spread, citing the “profound tension in the region”. Wall Street Journal Reuters Washington Post Bloomberg
Israel says it's fighting an Axis, not a single enemy. Israel's Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, says that Israel is fighting against an “axis”, not just a single enemy, citing Iran's growing military influence in the region as a major concern. Gallant indicated that Israel would shift from an intense combat phase to different types of special operations in the ongoing conflict, signaling a potentially prolonged engagement. Gallant says that Israel’s key goals include destroying Hamas as a fighting force, ending its control of Gaza, and securing the release of remaining hostages. He also acknowledged concerns about civilian casualties and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, where most of the population is concentrated in the southern part. While avoiding war with Hezbollah is a priority, Gallant stressed that Israel would take action if necessary to ensure the safety of its citizens along the northern border. He noted that Israel's ultimate objective is to deter future attacks and protect its way of life. Reuters
Israel signals it has wrapped up major combat in northern Gaza. The Israeli military has announced that it has largely completed its major combat operations in northern Gaza, signaling a shift in focus towards strengthening defenses along the Israel-Gaza border and concentrating on central and southern parts of Gaza. The announcement comes as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Israel and urges the country to transition from a broad offensive to more targeted actions against Hamas to minimize harm to Palestinian civilians. Israel's military campaign against Hamas began after the group's attack on southern Israel in October, resulting in significant casualties and damage on both sides. While Israel claims its actions are aimed at eliminating Hamas and ensuring its security, international concerns persist regarding the humanitarian impact of the conflict. Additionally, the ongoing violence has raised challenges for post-war governance and diplomacy in the region. Politico
Israel’s talk of expanding war to Lebanon alarms U.S. President Biden's top aides are working to prevent a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group. Israel has signaled its intent to address the ongoing clashes with Hezbollah along the border with Lebanon, which it says are “untenable”. The U.S. is concerned that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might view an expanded conflict in Lebanon as crucial for his political survival, given domestic criticism of his government's handling of the recent Hamas attack on Israel. The U.S. has privately cautioned Israel against a significant escalation in Lebanon, highlighting concerns about the Israeli Defense Forces' ability to manage multiple fronts concurrently, considering the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Hezbollah, despite its capabilities, seeks to avoid a major escalation, with its leader, Hasan Nasrallah, hinting at negotiations on border demarcation. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is working to defuse tensions, and discussions are underway to establish a process for negotiating a land demarcation agreement between Lebanon and Israel. The fear is that a full-scale conflict could result in significant casualties and damage, and it could potentially draw in other regional actors. Washington Post
Violence rises in West Bank, leaving at least 9 Palestinians dead. Officials say that at least nine Palestinians were killed amid increasing violence in the West Bank yesterday morning. An Israeli drone strike killed seven Palestinian men during a pre-dawn military incursion into Jenin and an eighth man was killed by Israeli soldiers in the central West Bank, health officials said. Israeli officials said an Israeli border police officer also was killed during the Jenin raid and that four other officers were wounded. Later yesterday, gunmen shot and killed a man who was driving in the central West Bank. Israeli news media identified the man as an Arab resident of East Jerusalem. It was not clear whether the man was an Israeli citizen. The Israeli military also said that late yesterday a three-year-old Palestinian girl was killed when Israeli forces shot at a man and woman whose vehicle rammed a border checkpoint on the outskirts of Jerusalem. New York Times
Hezbollah Fires Dozens of Rockets Into Israel. Militants in Lebanon launched about 40 rockets into Israel as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in the region. The rockets were fired in response to the killing of Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri. Israel responded with airstrikes and artillery fire. Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed Lebanese group, claimed responsibility for the rocket attack, further escalating the situation. This incident raises concerns that the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza could lead to a broader regional conflict involving the U.S., Iran, and Tehran's militia allies. Blinken expressed the need to prevent the conflict from spreading and emphasized the importance of Israel's security. Meanwhile, the conflict has strained U.S. relations with regional allies and partners, including Turkey, which has criticized U.S. support for Israel. The situation also impacts global shipping, as Houthi rebel attacks have forced ships to divert away from the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Wall Street JournalNY Times
Israel Presses Egypt to Better Secure Border. Israel and Egypt are in negotiations over the Philadelphi Corridor, a land strip controlled by Egypt bordering Gaza, with Israel seeking to install sensors to detect tunnel-building activities by Hamas. Israel has requested direct notifications if these sensors are triggered and the right to send surveillance drones into the area in case of such a trigger. Egypt has indicated it may add the sensors but views direct notifications and drone access as violations of its sovereignty. The negotiations come as Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits the region to prevent the conflict from escalating further. Israel has curtailed the delivery of aid through the border as part of its effort to ensure Hamas doesn't use it for military purposes. Israel says the Philadelphi Corridor must be “in our hands” to ensure Gaza's demilitarization. Wall Street Journal
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
Russian launches new wave of drone and missile strikes on Ukraine. Ukraine’s air force said this morning that Russia launched a total of 59 missiles and drones at Ukraine overnight, killing at least four people, wounding more than 30, and causing damage to infrastructure. The air force said air defenses managed to shoot down 18 cruise missiles and eight drones. The assault followed attacks overnight a day earlier in which the Ukrainian air force said Russia launched 28 drones and three cruise missiles, primarily in the southern and eastern parts of the country. The air force said air defense systems shot down 21 of the drones. The air force also said Russia has been shifting the focus of its attacks to the frontline territories. Ukrainian officials said Saturday evening that Russian missile strikes close to the front lines in Donetsk killed 11 civilians. ReutersKyiv IndependentKyiv Independent Kyiv Independent New York TimesBloomberg
Poland reaches deal with farmers to call off blockade of Ukraine border crossing. Polish farmers have ended their blockade of the Poland-Ukraine border crossing after reaching an agreement with the government. The month-long protest, which resumed after farmers' mistrust of the initial deal, focused on concerns about Ukrainian grain imports and demands for financial support. The government signed a deal that implemented farmers' financial demands, such as corn production subsidies, maintaining agricultural taxes, and increasing preferential liquidity loans, but did not include restrictions on Ukrainian imports. Despite ending the blockade, the protesting farmers still aim to limit the inflow of goods from Ukraine, fearing its impact on the EU sector, including Polish poultry and sugar production. Polish truckers are also protesting against an EU-Ukraine agreement that liberalized road transport rules, hurting the Polish trucking industry. PoliticoAssociated PressEuronews
Latvia warns Russia ‘will not stop’ at Ukraine. Latvian Foreign Minister Krišjānis Kariņš warned that Russia “will not stop” after the Ukraine war and emphasized the need for NATO to develop a “long-term strategy” to contain Moscow. He said that Russia’s “imperialistic-fueled ideology” makes it a continued threat beyond the Ukraine war and called for NATO to deter this through increased defense investments. Other top European officials have likewise warned that Russia could target other countries like Moldova or the Baltic states after Ukraine. Kariņš has expressed interest in succeeding Jens Stoltenberg as NATO’s leader, arguing that the alliance’s next leader should come from a member that is meeting the 2-percent-of-GDP defense spending target, like Latvia. Financial TimesPolitico
Japan’s foreign minister visits Ukraine, pledges additional support. Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa visited Ukraine on Friday and pledged millions of dollars to NATO to support Kyiv against Russia’s invasion. Kamikawa said Japan is allocating $37 million to a NATO Trust Fund for equipment like a drone detection system. She also said Tokyo is donating five mobile gas turbine generators and seven transformers to Ukraine to help it address power cuts caused by Russian air strikes on critical infrastructure. Kamikawa met with President Volodymyr Zelensky and Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, who reiterated Ukraine’s need for aircraft and air defenses. Japan cannot ship weapons to countries at war, but has signaled that it will send Patriot air defense missiles to the U.S. in a major overhaul of arms export rules, which could boost Washington’s capacity to send military aid to Ukraine. Japan has also committed to support Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction. ReutersKyiv IndependentKyiv Independent
Ukraine shows evidence Russia fired North Korea missile at Kharkiv. Ukraine's Kharkiv region prosecutor's office displayed fragments of a missile it says was supplied by North Korea and used by Russia in an attack on Kharkiv. The missile struck the city on January 2, killing two people and injuring over 60. A spokesperson for the prosecutor's office, Dmytro Chubenko, pointed out differences between the missile used and Russian Iskander missiles, stating that the missile was visually and technically different and similar to a North Korean missile. While the exact model name wasn't provided, Chubenko's remarks support the claim made by a senior adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky that Russia used North Korean-supplied missiles in its recent attacks on Ukraine. North Korea has been under a UN arms embargo since 2006. Reuters
ANALYSIS- Ukraine’s Patriot Defenses at Work. The NY Times is out with new analysis that examines Ukraine's use of American-supplied Patriot missiles to counter Russian missile attacks during the ongoing conflict. These missile-on-missile battles unfold rapidly, with Ukrainian Patriot batteries intercepting Russian ballistic missiles. While the Patriot systems have been successful in defending against missile attacks, recent Russian barrages have caused significant damage, highlighting Ukraine's urgent need for additional air defense capability. On December 29, Russia launched over 120 missiles at Ukrainian cities, resulting in civilian casualties and injuries. President Zelensky stressed the need for more air defense systems and munitions. However, the United States has warned that it may soon be unable to supply Patriot interceptor missiles to Ukraine. Since the conflict began in February 2022, Russia has directed thousands of missiles and drones at Ukrainian targets, making Ukraine a testing ground for various air defense systems. While other systems exist, only the Patriots are designed to counter ballistic missiles effectively. Despite their success, the Patriots have limitations, and Ukrainian commanders are planning for an uncertain future without guaranteed foreign support. Ukraine's air defense efforts have saved lives, but they remain dependent on international assistance, highlighting the challenges faced by the country in its ongoing conflict with Russia. NY Times
ANALYSIS- Russia has the upper hand in electronic warfare over Ukraine. Russia currently has the advantage in electronic warfare (EW) over Ukraine since Moscow heavily invested in EW capabilities before its invasion, according to an FT analysis. Russia’s recent surge in airstrikes on Ukraine has demonstrated Ukraine’s challenges in using EW capabilities to counter Russian drones and missiles. EW is increasingly important as drones have played a more significant role in the war. Experts say drones have made it easier to spot and destroy tanks and armored vehicles, contributing to why Ukraine’s counteroffensive last year failed to make more territorial gains. Russian EW systems have also effectively thwarted Ukraine’s precision-guided munitions. Ukraine is working to close the gap in EW capabilities, asking allies to deliver more support to “suppress or spoof” the satellite guidance system of Russia’s guided missiles and drones. Financial TimesKyiv Independent
Air defenses intercepted over half of Russia's Kinzhal hypersonic missiles fired in war to date. Ukraine's air defenses claim to have successfully intercepted 25 out of 63 Kinzhal hypersonic air-launched missiles fired by Russia during its invasion. The Kinzhal missiles, touted by Russia as nearly impossible to stop, use parts imported from multiple European Union countries, according to reports. Russia claims the missiles reach an altitude of 20 km and travel at speeds up to Mach 10, making them too fast to intercept. However, Ukraine's Air Force Spokesperson, Yurii Ihnat, stated that they had obtained Patriot systems capable of destroying air-launched ballistic missiles, which contributed to their interception success. On January 2, Russia launched a large-scale air attack on Ukraine, firing 10 Kinzhal missiles, all of which Ukraine says were intercepted. Kyiv Independent
Pentagon’s Ukraine Coffers Run Dry, Threatening Kyiv’s Grip on Its Territory. The stalemate in Washington over U.S. border policy is having unintended consequences on the Ukraine battlefield. As Russia intensifies its attacks on Ukraine, the Pentagon has run out of funds to send additional hardware and ammunition. The White House requested $45 billion for Ukraine's security assistance, but Senate Republicans are demanding changes in border policy in return. Without congressional approval for more funding, the U.S. faces a dilemma: either dip into the Pentagon's arsenal, leaving it depleted, or leave Ukraine to rely on its own arms industry and European allies. This shortage of weaponry could put Ukraine in a dire situation, potentially leading to further territorial losses. Russia's continued aggression in Ukraine could embolden authoritarian leaders globally, seeing U.S. weakness. The Pentagon's dwindling funds have forced a reduction in aid packages for Ukraine, and Ukrainian soldiers have reported shortages of artillery. The situation highlights the urgent need for additional support for Ukraine's defense. Wall Street Journal
ANALYSIS- Short on Shells, Ukraine Relies on Explosive Drones to Hold Russia Back. Ukraine is grappling with a severe shortage of artillery ammunition as additional aid from the United States remains blocked in Congress. With the war approaching its third year and Russia intensifying its offensive, Ukrainian troops on the front lines are improvising by using first-person-view (FPV) drones to compensate for the lack of artillery shells. While these drones are more accurate than artillery, they cannot completely replace the firepower of conventional artillery. They are less expensive than artillery shells and easier to produce, providing a valuable resource for Ukraine's military. However, the shortage of artillery ammunition has forced Ukraine to rely on unorthodox tactics and modified weapons to address the gaps in their defenses. The FPV drones offer better accuracy in targeting moving vehicles and troops on foot but are unable to penetrate fortifications or match the speed and range of traditional artillery. As Ukraine awaits additional aid packages from the U.S. and the European Union, its forces are struggling with shortages of ammunition, financial resources, and manpower. These challenges have prompted soldiers to increase the use of unconventional tactics as a stopgap measure to hold Russian advances at bay. Wall Street Journal
Former German president calls for delivery of Taurus missiles to Ukraine. Former German President Joachim Gauck has advocated for Germany to supply Ukraine with long-range Taurus missiles to strengthen Ukraine’s defense capabilities. He said the missiles, which have a range of up to 500 kilometers, are needed due to ongoing trench warfare and continued Russian airstrikes against Ukrainian civilians. Ukraine submitted a request for Taurus missiles in May 2023, but German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reportedly opposed the move over concerns about the transfer drawing Berlin into the war. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has said that the missiles would be used solely within Ukraine's borders. Gauck noted that there is no international law banning military support for “an attacked victim,” meaning that Germany should provide all resources that it can to Ukraine to counter Russia’s invasion. He added that a Russian victory in Ukraine would pose a medium-term security threat to other European states. Markus Soder, the prime minister of the German state of Bavaria, also voiced support for sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine, considering it the only serious chance for Ukraine to resist and for Russia not to succeed. Kyiv Independent
German tabloid says Unidentified drones repeatedly spotted over German military bases where Ukrainians train. German tabloid Bild is out with a report that alleges that unidentified drones have been repeatedly spotted flying over German military bases where Ukrainian soldiers are being trained, raising concerns of potential espionage. As of August 2023, around 6,000 Ukrainian soldiers had received training in Germany, with a goal of reaching 10,000 by year-end. Training programs have included general combat skills and advanced equipment usage like Patriot air defense systems and U.S.-provided Abrams tanks. While suspicions point to Russia as the source of these drone incursions, there is no concrete evidence to confirm this, as no drones have been intercepted. German lawmakers, including Marcus Faber and Andreas Schwarz, have expressed concern over the government's inaction in addressing this security issue, highlighting the need for more modern jamming equipment to counter such threats. Bild Kyiv Independent
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
The Americas
US defense secretary says he takes responsibility for secret hospitalization. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin issued a statement Saturday saying he takes full responsibility for the secrecy surrounding an ongoing weeklong hospitalization for a still undisclosed medical condition, and he promised to do a better job of keeping the public “appropriately informed.” He also said that he is recovering well and will return to the Pentagon soon. Austin was admitted to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center on January 1 for what the Pentagon said were complications following a recent elective medical procedure. Senate Armed Services Committee Ranking Member Roger Wicker said the Pentagon failed to inform Congress of the matter as required by law. A U.S. official speaking on condition of anonymity said President Biden was not informed until Thursday evening. Another official said Biden maintains confidence in Austin and that the two spoke Saturday evening. A spokesperson said on Saturday that Austin had resumed his full duties Friday evening while in the hospital. ReutersNew York TimesPoliticoWashington PostFinancial TimesWall Street JournalBloomberg
Biden, Johnson Set for Crucial Battle Over Border, Ukraine Aid. The battle between President Joe Biden and House Speaker Mike Johnson over Ukraine aid and immigration policy is intensifying as Congress races to avoid a Jan. 20 partial government funding lapse. Both parties are concerned about the political consequences of a shutdown. The spending plan announced on Sunday does not include the $61 billion in aid to Ukraine sought by Biden or the stringent border protections demanded by conservatives. Ukraine is at risk of losing U.S. financial support as it approaches the third year of its war with Russia. The negotiations are further complicated by the 2024 election, where issues like the U.S. migrant crisis and America First isolationism will play a significant role. Johnson aims to use Ukraine aid to pressure Biden into accepting immigration changes, but the deal remains elusive. If an agreement isn't reached, Ukraine and border policy may languish indefinitely. Bloomberg
US House Speaker announces 2024 spending deal to avert government shutdown. Congressional leaders have reached a spending deal for the remainder of fiscal year 2024, aiming to avoid a partial government shutdown. The deal, influenced by caps and spending agreements from a previous debt limit deal, allocates $1.59 trillion for fiscal 2024, with $886 billion for defense and $704 billion for non-defense. However, there are discrepancies in the reported figures, with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries stating $772.7 billion for non-defense discretionary funding. This agreement comes as the House and Senate return from holiday break, with funding expiring in two tiers on January 19 and February 2. Additionally, discussions continue regarding a supplemental spending request for Ukraine and Israel, with negotiations involving border and immigration policy changes. Some hardline House Republicans are pushing for a government shutdown over border issues, while President Biden supports the spending framework. The HillAssociated Press
U.S. has released more than 2.3 million migrants at border since 2021, data show. Under the Biden administration, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has released over 2.3 million migrants into the United States, with the majority being migrant families, according to new Department of Homeland Security data. This practice is often employed when CBP facilities are overwhelmed and lack the capacity to process migrants using standard procedures. The 2.3 million figure is considerably lower than the more than 6 million migrants taken into CBP custody during the same period. The data also reveals that around 4 million border-crossers have been expelled, returned to their home countries, or otherwise removed from the United States in the past three years. The issue of mass releases has strained U.S. communities, and some migrants have been sent to cities across the country. Washington Post
Biden Faces Increasing Pressure for Border Measures in CBS Poll. A CBS News/YouGov poll shows that Americans are increasingly in favor of tougher immigration measures at the US-Mexico border, with 63% supporting the idea, compared to 55% in September. However, sentiment is shifting against the practice of border states sending migrants northward. The poll also revealed that 68% of respondents disapprove of President Joe Biden's handling of the border situation, while 65% disapprove of GOP lawmakers' handling of it. The issue has become an early battleground in the 2024 election, with former President Donald Trump, the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination, pushing for stricter border policies. Senate negotiators on border security are expected to present a proposal this week after months of impasse, with Republicans demanding stricter asylum policies and measures to reduce the number of migrants entering the southern border in exchange for clearing the foreign military aid sought by the White House. Bloomberg
ANALYSIS- Elon Musk alleged use of illegal drugs, worries executives at Tesla and SpaceX. Some executives and board members of companies led by Elon Musk have expressed concerns about his alleged use of drugs, including LSD, cocaine, ecstasy, and psychedelic mushrooms. These concerns extend to the potential consequences not only for Musk's health but also for the companies and assets he oversees. Observers have noted his drug use at private parties with nondisclosure agreements or phone restrictions. Illegal drug use could potentially violate federal policies and jeopardize government contracts worth billions of dollars, especially for SpaceX, which transports NASA astronauts and provides satellite services to national-security agencies. While some Tesla board members have discussed their concerns privately, they haven't taken formal action. Musk has a security clearance as CEO of SpaceX, which mandates compliance with the Drug-Free Workplace Act. Board members have also been concerned about Musk's erratic behavior, including his tweets and interviews, but have not addressed the issue directly. Elon Musk and his supporters offer several explanations for his contrarian views, unfiltered speech and provocative antics. They’re an expression of his creativity. Or the result of his mental-health challenges. Or fallout from his stress, or sleep deprivation. Wall Street Journal
Colombia, Ecuador bust drug ring exporting five tons of cocaine a month. Colombia and Ecuador have successfully dismantled a criminal organization, known as Los Curva, responsible for trafficking up to five tons of cocaine per month to the United States and Europe. The organization was generating over $2 billion annually from the drug trade. Colombian authorities, in collaboration with Ecuador, conducted a year-long operation that culminated in the capture of the Colombian brothers Hader and Dairon Cuero, the leaders of Los Curva. Hader Cuero is wanted in the United States on drug trafficking charges. Los Curva used speedboats and Mexican-flagged vessels to transport drugs via maritime routes to Mexico, collaborating with Mexico's Sinaloa cartel and European Balkan cartels. In the past year, several individuals were arrested in connection with this operation. Reuters
Europe
Italian foreign minister calls for formation of EU army. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has called for the European Union (EU) to establish its own combined army, emphasizing the need for closer European cooperation in defense. He argued that a European military force is a fundamental precondition for effective European foreign policy and would enable the EU to play a more significant role in peacekeeping and conflict prevention. Tajani highlighted the challenges posed by powerful global players like the United States, China, India, and Russia, as well as ongoing crises in various regions. While European defense cooperation has been on the agenda, the focus has largely been on NATO expansion, with EU nations like Finland and Sweden seeking membership in the alliance. Tajani also advocated for streamlining EU leadership with a single presidency. His statements come amid discussions about the EU's role in international security and defense. ReutersKyiv Independent
Charles Michel stepping down early as European Council president. Charles Michel will step down as European Council president early to run as a candidate in European Parliament elections. His mandate was set to end in November. A majority of the EU’s 27 leaders must elect a new European Council president at an EU summit just after the June elections. If they cannot agree on a successor, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban will temporarily assume the presidency when Hungary takes over the rotating presidency of the EU in July. Orban frequently clashes with Brussels and has maintained close ties with Russia since the start of the Ukraine war. Michel’s move to resign has sparked criticism, with some European politicians suggesting that he is abandoning his duties. BBCFrance 24 Financial Times
Germany signals it is considering sending more Eurofighter jets to Saudi Arabia. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government signaled that it is considering supporting the sale of additional Eurofighter aircraft to Saudi Arabia, marking a potential reversal on its previous stance against exports of the aircraft. Initial policy, driven by the Greens, opposed arms sales to countries involved in the conflict in Yemen. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock announced the reversal of this position, citing Saudi Arabia's role in countering attacks on Israel by Yemen's Houthi rebels as a reason for reconsideration. Economy Minister Robert Habeck echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the changed security policy situation in the Middle East after the Hamas attacks on Israel in October, though he noted ongoing human rights concerns in Saudi Arabia. The Saudi government reportedly seeks to purchase an additional 48 Eurofighter aircraft. Any potential sale would require approval by Germany’s security cabinet. It would then take several years to build and deliver the aircraft. ReutersBloomberg
Poland apparently resisting cooperation with probe of Nord Stream blasts. Poland is facing accusations of hindering an international probe into the sabotage of the Nord Stream natural-gas pipelines, which run between Russia and Germany under the Baltic Sea. European investigators claim that Polish officials have been slow to provide information and have withheld crucial evidence regarding alleged saboteurs' movements on Polish soil. Investigators say that they hope the new government in Warsaw, which assumed office in December, will do more to facilitate the investigation. Investigators have reportedly long believed that the attack was launched from Ukraine via Poland, but officials say Warsaw’s lack of cooperation into the investigation has made it difficult to determine if the previous Polish government had knowledge of the attack. There is no evidence linking the Polish government to the Nord Stream blasts, but its lack of cooperation has raised suspicions and is undermining trust in NATO. The explosions on the Nord Stream pipelines increased pressure on Germany and other European countries to lessen dependence on Russian fuel. Wall Street Journal
Blinken says Turkey set to approve Sweden’s NATO accession. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Saturday that Turkey appears to be set to ratify Sweden’s membership in NATO in the coming weeks. Speaking to reporters in Greece, he said that he discussed “final steps” in the ratification process with Turkey, without elaborating. Turkey’s parliament’s foreign affairs commission approved Sweden’s NATO accession bid last week. The parliament’s general assembly will vote on the matter next. Reuters
Asia and Oceania
China’s foreign minister urges cooperation over confrontation with U.S. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Friday urged the U.S. and China to avoid confrontation and increase cooperation. Speaking in Beijing at an event marking the 45th anniversary of diplomatic ties between the U.S. and China, Wang said the “top priority” for the two nations is to “effectively manage differences.” He urged the removal of “barriers” to cooperation and warned that “artificial decoupling and containment” will eventually “backfire.” Despite ongoing tensions over Taiwan, the South China Sea and other issues, Wang called for mutual respect and understanding to improve bilateral relations. He also highlighted recent progress in military communication and a joint anti-narcotics working group, agreed upon during the summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden in November. South China Morning Post
China says it detained ‘foreign spy’ working for Britain’s MI6. China has detained the head of an overseas consulting firm, accusing them of spying for the British Secret Intelligence Service (MI6). China’s Ministry of State Security alleged that MI6 approached the consultant, identified as Huang, in 2015 for intelligence cooperation, directing him to enter China multiple times for espionage activities. The ministry accused MI6 of providing Huang with professional intelligence training and special espionage equipment for intelligence cross-linking. The ministry did not disclose Huang’s nationality, saying only that they are from a “third country.” The ministry also did not identify their consulting firm. The British government has not commented on the accusation. The incident adds to China’s recent espionage crackdown, which has, in part, targeted foreign businesses and Western consulting firms. Britain has claimed that Chinese spies are targeting British officials in sensitive positions, which Beijing has denied as disinformation. ReutersBloomberg South China Morning Post
China sanctions U.S. defense companies over Taiwan arms sales. China sanctioned five U.S. defense industry companies, including BAE Systems Land and Armament, Alliant Techsystems Operation, AeroVironment, ViaSat, and Data Link Solutions. The move is in response to against the U.S. State Department's approval of approximately $300 million in potential foreign military sales to Taiwan. The sanctions involve freezing the properties of the affected companies in China and prohibiting Chinese organizations and individuals from transactions and cooperation with them. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs cited "gravely wrong actions" by the U.S. for the sanctions and said the measures were in accordance with China’s Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law. While the impact on U.S. firms is uncertain, such sanctions are often viewed as symbolic since American defense manufacturers and military service providers generally do not conduct business activities in China. This is not the first time China has sanctioned U.S. companies over weapon sales to Taiwan. Last year, Lockheed Martin Corp. and Raytheon Missiles & Defense were added to China's unreliable entities list. The sanctions come amid increased tensions over Taiwan ahead of the island’s upcoming elections. ReutersBloombergAssociated PressSouth China Morning Post
Taiwan reports more Chinese balloon flights ahead of elections. Taiwan's defense ministry detected three more Chinese balloons flying over the Taiwan Strait on Sunday, with one crossing Taiwan. In a strongly worded statement on Saturday, Taiwan accused China of posing a threat to aviation safety and using the balloons to engage in psychological warfare ahead of key Taiwanese elections. The balloons, which have previously been linked to potential spying concerns, have been viewed as part of Chinese intimidation tactics against Taiwan. China's defense ministry has not responded to the accusations. Taiwan remains on high alert for Chinese military and political activities, alleging that China is applying military and economic pressure to interfere in the upcoming elections. Political figures from both the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) have called for an end to such actions, emphasizing the desire for peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. China's Taiwan Affairs Office said the ruling DPP is hyping up the threat from Beijing and inciting confrontation. France 24ReutersBloombergSouth China Morning Post
China starts new South China Sea military exercise after U.S.-Philippine patrol. China started a new military exercise in the South China Sea on Friday after the conclusion of a two-day joint patrol by the U.S. and the Philippines in the disputed waters. The People's Liberation Army Southern Theatre Command stated that the navy and air force were conducting a "routine" exercise without specifying details. During the US-Philippine joint patrol, China conducted a competing exercise and two Chinese navy vessels were reported to have "shadowed" the patrol. Tensions between Manila and Beijing have risen in the region, with confrontations over disputed areas like the Second Thomas Shoal. The joint patrol between the U.S. and the Philippines is seen as a significant development in the two countries’ military cooperation, which China condemned as "provocative military activities" that flaunt military might and undermine maritime management and control. South China Morning Post
North Korea continues artillery fire, threatens military response to provocation. Kim Yo Jong, the sister of North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un, warned on Sunday that Pyongyang would launch an immediate military strike in response to any provocation. This statement follows North Korea's firing of artillery shells near its border with South Korea for the third consecutive day. South Korea's military reported that North Korea fired about 90 rounds on Sunday, following more than 200 rounds the previous day and over 60 rounds on Saturday. Kim Yo Jong stated that the “safety catch of trigger of the Korean People's Army had already been slipped,” and a military strike would occur with even a slight provocation from the enemy. South Korea's military dismissed Kim's statement as low-level psychological warfare and urged North Korea to cease military activities raising tension near the border. ReutersAssociated Press
Islamic State claims responsibility for bus bombing in Kabul. The Islamic State group claimed responsibility for a minibus explosion in Kabul, Afghanistan, on Saturday that killed at least five people. The group stated that its members detonated an explosive device on a bus carrying Shiite Muslims in Kabul's western Shiite neighborhood of Dashti Barchi. The group has previously carried out major assaults on schools, hospitals, mosques, and other Shiite areas across Afghanistan. The U.N. Assistance Mission in Afghanistan called for an end to targeted attacks on civilians and greater protection for the Hazara community in Kabul. Taliban Defense Minister Mohammad Yaqoob Mujahid reported a 90% decrease in attacks by the Islamic State affiliate in the past year. The two groups have been major rivals since the Taliban seized control of Afghanistan in August 2021. Associated Press
Middle East and Northern Africa
Iran-China oil trade stalls as Tehran seeks higher prices. China's oil trade with Iran has experienced a setback as Tehran holds back shipments and demands higher prices, creating a potential disruption in the cheap oil supply for China, the world's largest crude importer. Iranian oil accounts for about 10% of China's crude imports. The sudden reduction in Iranian oil could support global prices while damaging profits for Chinese refiners, especially smaller independent refiners, known as “teapots,” who have been major buyers of Iranian oil. The move, which an industry executive called a ”default,” may be a consequence of the U.S. waiver on sanctions for Venezuelan oil in October. Venezuela’s subsequent diversion of oil shipments to the U.S. and strained supplies and raised prices for China. A Chinese oil industry source said Chinese buyers and Iranian suppliers are at a “stalemate” in negotiations about next steps. The National Iranian Oil Co, China's commerce ministry, and the U.S. Treasury Department have not commented on the matter. Reuters
Africa
ANALYSIS- After Niger Coup, U.S. Scrambles to Keep a Vital Air Base. The completion of U.S. Air Base 201 in Agadez, Niger, nearly six years ago has left it mostly idle, as most of the drones that once monitored jihadist activities in Africa are grounded. After a military coup in Niger in July, the U.S. and European partners halted their cooperation with the country, which had become a major recipient of security assistance and development aid. Resuming operations at Air Base 201 presents a challenge for the Biden administration, as the U.S. is required by law to suspend security operations and aid to Niger due to the coup. The European Union has suspended aid, and some European countries are divided on how to proceed. Additionally, Russia is looking to expand its influence in the region. Talks are underway to establish new drone bases in coastal West African countries as a backup to the landlocked Air Base 201. While some European countries are willing to engage with the junta in Niger, a decade of Western efforts to strengthen governance in the country has been indefinitely suspended, with an uncertain future for U.S. military assets in the region. NY Times
Somalia’s President Signs Law Canceling Ethiopia Red Sea Access Deal. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has declared a recent agreement between the breakaway region of Somaliland and Ethiopia to grant landlocked Ethiopia access to the Red Sea in exchange for a stake in Ethiopian Airlines as "illegal." He announced the invalidation of the agreement in a post on social media and signed a law repealing the deal. Somalia argues that the sea-access agreement violates its territorial integrity and sovereignty. Following the nullification of the agreement, Somalia has recalled its ambassador to Ethiopia for urgent consultation. Specific details about the new law or its approval timeline in the Somali parliament have not been disclosed. Officials from Somaliland and Ethiopia have not yet responded to requests for comment. Bloomberg
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
U.S. seeks to bolster nuclear energy cooperation amid China, Russia competition. The U.S. government is seeking to promote small modular reactors (SMRs) as a means to compete with global rivals, particularly Russia and China, in the nuclear energy market. Although the U.S. has not yet sold or built any SMRs domestically, officials aim to persuade partner countries to adopt this technology, viewing it as a way to strengthen diplomatic ties and reduce reliance on Chinese and Russian energy. The U.S. is currently in discussions on the technology with various countries, including Romania, Bulgaria, Ghana, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, and the Philippines. The U.S. Nuclear Energy Agency estimates the global SMR market could reach 21 gigawatts of power by 2035. China is currently a leader in reactor construction, and Russia's Rosatom is a major exporter of reactors and nuclear fuel. The U.S. aims to position itself as a less risky alternative for energy partnerships. Wall Street Journal
Vulcan Rocket Launches, Kicking Off First U.S. Moon Race in Decades. United Launch Alliance (ULA), a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, successfully launched the Vulcan Centaur rocket from Florida's Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. The rocket carried the Peregrine Lunar Lander vehicle, which is expected to make the first U.S. lunar landing in over half a century. If successful, this uncrewed lunar landing will mark the first lunar exploration mission since the final Apollo mission in 1972 and is set to take place next month. The Peregrine Lunar Lander, developed by Astrobotic Technology, is carrying various NASA instruments, including one to measure radiation risk for future astronauts. Multiple companies are working to send U.S. landers to the moon in the coming years, with significant international interest in lunar exploration and settlement, including missions by India, Japan, the U.S., and China. Wall Street Journal
NASA Bets on Private Companies for Moon Landings in 2024. The United States is gearing up to return to the moon in 2023, with five moon landers from private U.S. companies scheduled to touch down with NASA devices on board. The first mission, led by Pittsburgh-based Astrobotic Technology with its Peregrine lander, is expected to launch early Monday and make an uncrewed lunar landing in February. This marks a shift in how lunar operations are managed, with NASA acting as a customer rather than the primary provider. The goal is to make lunar missions more cost-effective and diverse, allowing multiple companies to participate. While there are challenges and uncertainties, this approach is expected to drive technological advancements in lunar exploration. Wall Street Journal
Israel Ministry to Give Go-Ahead for Musk’s Starlink This Week. Israel is set to grant approval for Elon Musk's Starlink satellite internet service to begin limited operations in the country, with sales initially restricted to official bodies. The agreement also stipulates that Starlink cannot provide access to humanitarian organizations in the Gaza Strip without approval from Israel's defense establishment. The move is aimed at enhancing wartime communications along Israel's borders while ensuring the service remains blocked in Gaza due to concerns it could be used by Hamas. Elon Musk had previously faced criticism in Israel when he suggested offering Starlink to humanitarian groups in Gaza but later clarified that he would only activate the service there with approval from both the U.S. and Israeli governments. The Israeli government expedited the approval process for Starlink due to the ongoing conflict with Hamas. Starlink has established an Israeli subsidiary and plans to begin selling its terminals to approved clients, including communication companies and local councils. Bloomberg
Chinese scientists claim to develop technology to track ships using other countries’ radars. A team of scientists from China's navy claims to have developed technology that can track cargo ships on the high seas by using signals emitted by the radars, warships, or early warning planes of other countries. The system, described in a paper published in the Chinese-language journal Radio Science and Technology, reportedly only requires simple gear like a laptop and a small antenna. The scientists demonstrated the technology, stating that it can track ships with ease, especially slow-moving targets at sea. This method involves using potentially non-friendly radar signals to detect ships going into and out of ports, which was considered an impossible feat until now. The researchers believe their work could have applications in electronic warfare, aiding the Chinese military in areas such as electronic reconnaissance, anti-radiation weaponry, ultra-low altitude penetration missions, and stealth technology. The ability to exploit enemy radar signals could provide smaller nations or forces with a crucial advantage, especially when their radar capabilities are limited or non-existent. South China Morning Post
Philippines Turns to Hackers for Help as US Warns of China Cyber Threat. The Philippines faces a significant challenge from state-sponsored cyberattacks, with insufficient resources to effectively combat them. Recent tensions in the South China Sea have brought attention to the country's maritime vulnerabilities but cyberattacks may pose a greater threat. A Chinese group called Stately Taurus was blamed for a cyberattack on a Philippine government agency in 2023, with its operations aligning with Chinese government interests. The Philippines lacks adequate cybersecurity resources, with only 35 members in its cyber response team, sometimes forced to work with anonymous hackers. The shortage of funds and competitive pay scales hinders the recruitment and retention of cyber talent. The country's armed forces also plan to recruit more "cyber warriors" to counter daily threats, including those from unidentified foreign entities. Governments worldwide have warned of China's growing digital threat, with the US and UK highlighting China's cyber espionage activities. Bloomberg
The data cutoff for this product was 8:00 a.m. E.T.
Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Katharine Campbell, Leighton Durham, and Ryan Simons contributed to this report.
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