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10:00 AM ET, Monday, December 4, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines:  

THE TOP STORIES

US Warship Responds Following Multiple Attacks on Commercial Vessels in Red Sea.  The U.S. military said on Sunday that three commercial vessels came under attack in the Red Sea by ballistic missiles fired from Houthi-controlled Yemen.  The U.S.S. Carney, an American destroyer, then downed three drones in the area.  Initial assessments indicate that at least one of the drones was launched from Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen.  U.S. Central Command (Centcom) noted that while the drones were headed towards the Carney, their “specific target” was not clear.  The Iran-backed Houthis claimed they hit “two Israeli ships” in the Red Sea in response to the demands of the Yemeni people and in support of Palestinians.  The Houthis claimed that they struck the Bahamian-flagged bulk carrier Unity Explorer with a missile and the Panama-flagged container ship Number 9 with a naval drone.  Centcom said the Unity Explorer and the Number 9 suffered minor damage from missile strikes and that a third ship, the Panamanian-flagged bulk carrier Sophie II, sent a distress signal saying it was also hit by a missile.  The Carney downed a drone when enroute to aid the Sophie II.  Centcom said the Houthis were “fully enabled by Iran” to conduct the attacks, adding that they “represent a direct threat to international commerce and maritime security” and that the U.S. “will consider all appropriate responses” in cooperation with allies and partners.  Bloomberg Washington Post Politico New York Times Reuters Associated Press Wall Street Journal 

China's Military: US Combat Ship 'Illegally' Entered Territorial Waters.  China’s military accused a US Navy ship of illegally entering Chinese waters near the Second Thomas Shoal, a disputed atoll in the South China Sea. A spokesperson for China’s Southern Theater of Operations said in a statement that the US had “seriously undermined regional stability” and violated China’s sovereignty. Beijing claims that most of the South China Sea is its sovereign territory. The US Navy said the USS Gabrielle Giffords was conducting routine operations in international waters and was operating within international law. A US Navy 7th Fleet spokesperson said the US would not be deterred from continuing to work along its allies and partners. The incident came a day after the Philippine Coast Guard deployed two of its vessels to the South China Sea after what it called an “alarming” increase in the number of Chinese military vessels round the Second Thomas Shoal, which a UN tribunal ruled in 2016 lies within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. Reuters South China Morning Post

U.S. Airstrike in Iraq Kills Five Militia Members.  Three Iraqi security sources said Sunday that a U.S. airstrike killed five Iranian-linked Iraqi militants linked near the northern city of Kirkuk as they prepared to launch an attack targeting U.S. forces. The U.S. military confirmed a “self defense strike on an imminent threat” Sunday afternoon. A statement from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a group representing several Iraqi armed organizations, said that five of its members had been killed and vowed retaliation against U.S. forces. Earlier Sunday, a U.S. military official said that U.S. and international forces were attacked at a location in northeastern Syria but there was no damage to infrastructure or casualties. Iraqi groups have claimed more than 70 attacks since October 17 in response to Washington’s support for Israel in its bombardment of Gaza. The attacks paused during the week-long ceasefire between Israel and Hamas but have since resumed. The U.S. currently has 900 troops in Syria and 2,500 in Iraq in efforts to prevent the resurgence of the Islamic State. Reuters

White House Says US Intelligence Had No Knowledge of Hamas' Attack Plan Document.  White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said yesterday that the US intelligence community has indicated it did not have access to a document detailing Hamas’s plan to attack Israel. Kirby’s comment came shortly after a New York Times report that Israeli officials had obtained the Hamas battle plan for October 7 more than a year before the attack occurred. The Times reported Israeli officials considered the document “aspirational” and the plans beyond Hamas’s capabilities. Axios

U.S. Deploying Missiles to Indo Pacific.  US Army Pacific spokesman Bob Phillips told Nikkei that the US military plans to deploy ground-based intermediate-range missiles in the Indo-Pacific in 2024, The move, aimed at enhancing deterrence against China, would establish the first American missile arsenal in the region since the end of the Cold War. The military is considering options including land-based versions of the SM-6 and the Tomahawk cruise missile. China continued to expand its stockpile of intermediate-range missiles during the years the US was bound by the INF Treaty with Moscow, and according to the Pentagon’s annual report on China’s military power, Beijing now has an estimated 1,500 missiles with ranges of between 1,000 km and 5,500 km. Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the US missiles will be deployed to American territories in the region, primarily Guam. Nikkei Asia

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Israel Expands Military Actions in Southern Gaza.  Israel has escalated its ground campaign and bombing attacks in southern Gaza after its ceasefire with Hamas expired last week.  On Monday morning, Israel’s military posted a map on X, that shows a quarter of the main southern Gaza city of Khan Younis being marked as an area that must be evacuated at once.  The map directs people there to head towards the Mediterranean coast or towards Rafah, though Israeli bombing was reported in the city near the Egyptian border.  The Israeli military added that the central road from Khan Younis to the north “constitutes a battlefield” and is closed.  Meanwhile, Israeli Brigadier-General Hisham Ibrahim said Israel’s military goals in northern Gaza “have almost been met.”  Over the weekend, Israeli military strikes reportedly targeted the Jabalia refugee camp.  The Ministry of Health in Gaza reports that over 15,500 people have been killed in the territory since the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict.  Al Jazeera France 24 Reuters Washington Post New York Times Wall Street Journal 

US Pressing Israel and Hamas to Resume Talks, White House Official Says.  White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told NBC’s Meet the Press yesterday that the US is undertaking an intense effort to persuade Israel and Hamas to resume negotiations on another pause in the fighting to allow for more exchanges of prisoners for hostages. In several talk show appearances, Kirby said Hamas is to blame for the breakdown in talks and that it had not lived up to the terms of the original agreement. Specifically, he said Hamas has failed to provide a list of women and children who could be released in addition to the 105 who were freed during the original pause. Eight or nine Americans are said to be among those still being held. Osama Hamdan, a Hamas representative in Lebanon, said yesterday that negotiations over the hostages will not resume until the Israeli assault stops. NY Times

Austin Says Civilians are 'Center of Gravity' in Gaza War Amid Criticism from Senator Graham. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Saturday that civilians are “the center of gravity” in the war in Gaza, and that “if you drive them into the arms of the enemy, you replace a tactical victory with a strategic defeat.” In remarks to the Reagan National Defense Forum in Simi Valley, California, Austin said he has pushed Israeli leaders to avoid civilian casualties, shun “irresponsible rhetoric,” prevent violence by Israeli settlers in the West Bank and dramatically expand Gaza’s access to humanitarian aid. He also said that the US “will remain Israel’s closest friend in the world” and that US support for Israeli security is “non-negotiable.” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) responded yesterday by calling Austin “naïve,” telling CNN’s State of the Union, “I just lost all confidence in this guy.” Graham said that while he understands  the Palestinians are “already inflamed,” that they are a “radicalized population,” taught from an early age to hate and kill Jews. He added that Austin is telling Israel to do things that are “impossible to achieve.” Reuters Politico CNN Axios

Vice President Harris ‘Strongly Opposes’ the Forced Relocation of Gazans After the End of the War. At a climate conference in Dubai on Saturday, Vice President Kamala Harris stated that the United States strongly opposed the forced relocation of Palestinians during and after the war. The vice president met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, where she rejected the notion that Palestinian refugee camps should be relocated to Egypt or elsewhere. A statement by the White House reinforced this idea, saying that under no circumstances would “the United States permit the forced relocation of Palestinians from Gaza or the West Bank.” The vice president also rejected the notion that the borders of Gaza would be redrawn at the end of the war. Harris made these statements after the COP28, where she met with leaders from Qatar, Jordan, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates. Harris reportedly spoke about postwar support in Gaza but didn’t share if any commitments were made. The vice president also stated that she didn’t have any new information on the 193 people who the Gazan health ministry claimed had been killed in the “past hours.” The Biden administration previously stated that Israel was taking steps to limit civilian casualties caused by airstrikes. Senior advisor to Netanyahu, Mark Regev, stated in a press conference on Saturday that Israeli forces would remain in the enclave past the end of the war to provide “security control” to the area. Regev denied that this was an attempt to take territory from Gaza.  New York Times

Israel Claims to Have Discovered 800 Shafts to Vast Hamas Underground Tunnel System. The Israeli military told reporters on Sunday that troops had discovered as many as 800 tunnels allegedly used by Hamas since October 27th. Hamas had claimed before the war that the tunnel network, which served as a base of operations, was comparable in size to the New York subway system. Israel has since focused airstrike operations on collapsing tunnels, reportedly destroying as many as 500. According to the Israeli military, tunnels were often found under civilian centers like schools and mosques.  Reuters

U.K. Military to Begin Drone Surveillance over Gaza. The U.K. Ministry of Defence announced on Sunday that the British military would begin conducting unmanned drone operations in Gaza to assist in efforts to locate hostages currently held by Hamas. U.K. officials stressed that drones would be unmanned and used strictly to support hostage recovery missions. The U.K. has also supplied Israel with aircraft and provided maritime defense patrols. Around 240 hostages were captured in the October 7th attacks by Hamas in Israel. Since then, 110 have been freed. Most releases took place during the week-long truce, which ended on Friday, complicating future hostage exchange prospects.  Al Jazeera

Israeli Security Chief Vows to Hunt Down Hamas Abroad.  Israeli public broadcaster Kan aired a recording yesterday of Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar saying Israel will hunt down Hamas outside of Gaza and the West Bank – specifically in Lebanon, Turkey and Qatar — even if it takes years. It was unclear when Bar made the comment. It comes after a recent Wall Street Journal report that Israel is seeking to eliminate Hamas leaders around the world. Reuters South China Morning Post

Henry Kissinger on a Two-State Solution and Relations with China. In what might have been his final interview, Henry Kissinger shared his opinion on the Israel-Hamas conflict and current U.S./China relations in a call with 25 other historians, reporters, and politicians. The transcript of this call was published by Politico. When prompted, Kissinger stated that he did not believe direct negotiations between Israel and Palestine would be “fruitful.” Kissinger also expressed doubt that a two-state solution would lead to lasting peace, opting instead for Jordanian rule over the West Bank post-war. Questions were also asked in regard to a hypothetical Chinese attack in Taiwan. Kissinger stated his belief that China was “not ready for such a conflict” and that the U.S. should “reconcile with China.” He claimed that the prevention of Russian and Chinese influence in the Middle East would only be brought about with a closer relationship with China. Kissinger concluded the call by saying that global leaders had failed to “master the overriding concepts, the fundamentals, and the day-to-day tactics,” resulting in many of the major conflicts witnessed today.  Politico

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Control over Devastated Eastern Ukrainian Town Uncertain.  Control over the contested town of Maryinka, in eastern Ukraine remained uncertain Friday, with unofficial reports suggesting that Russian forces had made some gains. Once a city of 10,000, current accounts of the town describe it as a ghost town. In their evening report, Ukraine’s General Staff said that Russian forces were unsuccessful in their attempts to advance on the villages near Maryinka but said nothing of troop movements in the town. Unofficial Russian blogger Rybar cited a photo circulating on social media showing Russian forces hoisting the Russian flag in the southwest of the town but noted that Ukrainian forces remained in control of other areas. Ukrainian social media acknowledged the Russian advantages but quoted soldiers rejecting the idea that Russian soldiers controlled the entire town.  This comes as Russian forces have been focused on eastern Ukraine and on seizing the town of Avdiivka, 40 km north of Maryinka. Ukraine says that they still retain control over Avdiivka but that not a single building remains intact. Ukrainian military spokesperson Volodymyr Fitio made no reference to either town while speaking on national television but said that Russian forces were launching attacks on many sectors of the 1000 km front line. President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to acknowledge that Ukrainian advance has been slow but rejects any notion that the conflict is slipping into a stalemate.  Reuters

Kyiv Accuses Russian Forces of Shooting Surrendering Ukrainian Soldiers.  Ukrainian officials accused Moscow of committing a war crime after a video appeared on social media allegedly depicted several Russian soldiers shooting two surrendering military personnel who emerged from a foxhole at gunpoint. The unverified video showed one soldier coming out of the dugout with his hands up and then lying on the ground. A second soldier then comes out and also lies down. Then, Russian troops appear to open fire and the video ends. Russia denies committing war crimes in its 21-month invasion of Ukraine. Kyiv says that they regularly violate the rules of war. Deepstate, a Ukrainian war blog which posted the video said that the footage was filmed near Stepove in the Donetsk region. The Ukrainian General Prosecutor's office said that the incident took place in the Pokrovsk district, a large area in Donetsk that runs close to the fiercely contested town of Avdiivka.  Politico Reuters Al Jazeera

Power Temporarily Cut at Zaporizhzhia Power Plant for the 8th TimeThe Ukrainian Energy Ministry and the IAEA reported December 2 that the Zaporizhzhia power plant lost power on the night of December 1 to 2 after two power lines to the facility were cut. Kyiv said that a nuclear “catastrophe” was averted after power was restored. Despite the plant not producing electricity, the nuclear reactors still need electricity to function. The power plant was able to run off of generators for nearly five and a half hours until power was restored Saturday. This incident marks the eighth complete black out, all under Russian occupation. Deutsche Welle  ISW

New Commander of the Medical Forces of Ukraine is Appointed. On Friday, Major General Anatoly Kazmirchuk was officially appointed to the position of Commander of the Medical Forces of Ukraine, as announced by the Defense Ministry. Kazmirchuk has pledged to bring a “new level of medical support” to the military as medics have often complained of poor training and poor quality medical supplies on the front lines. Medical teams have said that these inadequate resources were costing the lives of Ukrainian soldiers. The U.S. estimates that as many as 130,000 Ukrainian soldiers since the start of the war in 2022.  Kyiv Independent

NATO Chief Urges Support for Ukraine During ‘Both Good and Bad Times.’  NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Saturday that the alliance should “support Ukraine in both good and bad times” and “be prepared for bad news” from Kyiv as it continues to resist Russia’s invasion.  Speaking in an interview with German broadcaster ARD, he asserted that Ukraine is still having “big victories” even when it does not advance on the front.  His comments come amid concerns that Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive has made incremental gains on the front lines.  Ukraine has succeeded in pushing back Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and striking deep in Russian-occupied territory, namely in Crimea.  Stoltenberg reiterated that a Russian victory in Ukraine would both be a tragedy and endanger the alliance.  Regarding NATO’s response, he called for the increase in ammunition production for Ukraine and urged for greater integration and synchronization across Europe’s defense industry, saying “we’re not able to work as closely together as we should.”  Politico 

CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

New Android Malware is Being Used to Target Banking Apps in Southeast Asia. A sophisticated new malware dubbed FjordPhantom was discovered to have been targeting Southeast Asian banking apps as far back as September. Traces of the malware have been found in Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Reportedly spread through messaging services like email and SMS, victims receive instructions for downloading an app with components linking a legitimate banking service to the fraudulent code. Once installed, the malware will be able to access sensitive data within the device undetected. The engineers behind this new banking trojan are not yet known.  The Hacker News

Newly Discovered Backdoor Tools Used to Breach Global Governments and Nonprofits. Threat intelligence research company Palo Alto Networks Unit 42 has uncovered a backdoor used to exploit multiple industries across the Middle East, Africa, and the U.S. Created by unknown entities and dubbed Agent Racoon, the backdoor has been used to access education, real estate, retail, non-profits, telecom, and governments around the world. It is unclear how the firms were breached or when the attacks occurred. Most, if not all, of the attacks were against non-profit or government-adjacent corporations.  The Hacker News

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

Asia and Oceania

Philippine Coast Guard Deploys in Response to ‘Alarming’ Number of Chinese Vessels. On Sunday, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) deployed two vessels in the South China Sea in response to the “alarming” increase of Chinese military vessels in the region. The Chinese vessels have reportedly crossed into the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) around the Whitsun Reef.  According to the PCG, the number of Chinese military boats in the area has jumped from 111 on November 13 to 135 on Saturday. China continues to assert its rights to ownership of most of the South China Sea, even after an international court invalidated these claims in 2016. Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Vietnam all claim some territories, islands, and reefs within the waterway. U.S. and Australian forces have reportedly joined air and sea patrols in the region, to which China accused the Philippines of enlisting “foreign forces” to increase tensions. The Chinese embassy in Manila has not responded to requests for comments.  South China Morning Post Reuters

Islamic State Claims Responsibility for Philippines Bombing.  Islamic State militants have claimed responsibility for a bombing at a Catholic mass in the Philippines on Sunday. The attack killed at least four people and injured 50 others. The act was carried out in a university gymnasium in the southern city of Marawi.  Before Islamic State's claim of responsibility, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr strongly condemned "the senseless and most heinous acts perpetrated by foreign terrorists.”  Police and the military have bolstered security in the country's south and in the capital Manila after the attack.  Law enforcement operations to bring the attackers to justice for "terrorist activity" will "continue unabated", Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said at a press conference. There were "strong indications of a foreign element" in the bombing, Teodoro said, but he did not elaborate in order to avoid compromising the ongoing investigation.  Reuters New York Times

Wreckage of U.S. Air Force Osprey that Crashed Off Japan Found.  The U.S. Air Force announced that U.S. and Japanese divers found the wreckage of the Air Force Osprey aircraft that crashed off of southwestern Japan last week.  The U.S. Air Force said the remains of five crew members were found in the wreckage.  The body of one crew member was found and identified before the wreckage was found.  The search for the remaining two crew members is ongoing.  The Osprey had eight crew members abroad when it crashed.  Japan suspended flights of its own fleet of 14 Ospreys after the crash and has expressed concern to the U.S. about its continued use of the aircraft in Japanese airspace.  Associated Press Washington Post 

China’s Top Defense Contractors See Revenue Growth in 2022.  Six of China’s eight top defense contractors featured in a report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) saw revenue growth for the fourth consecutive year in 2022, while U.S. competitors suffered a drop in revenue from 2021.  The eight companies saw their combined revenue increase by 2.7 percent to $108 billion.  Three of the eight Chinese firms were among the world’s top 10 defense companies, including land systems specialist Norinco; China’s leading military aircraft maker Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC); and China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), the main contractor for the Chinese space program.  Analysts say the growth is due to the “uninterrupted increase” in China’s defense spending since 1995 as it pursues its military modernization drive.  Despite the dip in revenue amongst U.S. companies from 2021, U.S. defense contractors still led the industry with 51 percent of combined arms sales.  Chinese firms followed with 18 percent of share.  Additionally, the world’s top five defense contractors were from the U.S.  South China Morning Post SIPRI

U.S.-Funded, Indian-Built Sri Lankan Port Part of Efforts to Counter Chinese Influence.  The Colombo West International Terminal container port project in Sri Lanka is partly owned by The Adani Group, India’s biggest port operator, and backed by over $500 million in funding from a U.S. government agency.  This public-private partnership is part of infrastructure efforts by the Quad — which comprises India, the U.S., Australia, and Japan — to counter Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region.  The Sri Lankan port project specifically signals greater global orientation of Indian companies, stronger U.S. presence in South Asian nations, and the potential of projects with private stakeholders which do not have the same political issues associated with state-owned enterprises.  South China Morning Post

U.S. De-Risking from China Challenges Hong Kong Exporters.  U.S. efforts to diversify away from China to de-risk and strengthen resiliency of supply chains has led to difficulties for Hong Kong exporters.  Many Hong Kong businesses are relocating operations out of the city and are being forced to register in other places due to “unwritten rules” and boycott threats.  For example, Hong Kong manufacturers who have set up operations in Vietnam are being compelled to register in Singapore rather than in Hong Kong or China.  Despite this development, some Hong Kong industry leaders believe that U.S. buyers will need to make some concessions due to China’s critical role in producing raw materials.  They likewise point to the U.S. saying it does not seek full decoupling from China as a signal that there will be limits to this strategic restructuring of the global supply chain.  South China Morning Post

Belarus President Lukashenko to Visit China for Second Times This Year.  Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko headed to Beijing for talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Sunday.  This marks the second trip of the close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin to China this year.  This trip will be "a working visit” that will cover “issues of trade, economic, investment and international cooperation,” BelTA state news agency reported.  Xi previously said that the China-Belarus “friendship is unbreakable, and the two sides should constantly enhance political mutual trust and remain each other's true friends and good partners." China maintains close ties to Russia and has never condemned its invasion of Ukraine. However, Beijing has at the same time sought to frame itself as a mediator in the conflict.  Reuters

North Korea says Interference in Satellite Operations would be Declaration of War. North Korea said on Saturday that any interference with its satellite operations will be seen as a declaration of war and Pyongyang would mobilize its war deterrence against any attack on its assets.  A North Korean defense ministry spokesperson specifically warned that Pyongyang would respond to U.S. interference in space with the elimination of the “viability” of U.S. spy satellites.  North Korea claims it successfully launched its first military spy satellite on Nov. 21 and that the satellite transmitted photos of military installations in the U.S. mainland, Japan and the U.S. territory of Guam. When asked if Washington had the capability to interrupt the North Korean satellite's reconnaissance operations, a U.S. Space Command spokesman said the U.S. could deny any adversary's space capabilities using many different means.  Reuters

ANALYSIS – Increasing Number of Chinese Nationals Entering U.S. Through Darién Gap.  As China’s economy faces an increasing number of troubles, a growing number of Chinese immigrants are taking the long and difficult journey to the U.S. through Panama’s dangerous Darien Gap. According to Panamanian immigration authorities, Chinese citizens were the fourth-highest nationality to attempt a crossing of the Darien Gap this year, exceeded only by Venezuelans, Ecuadoreans and Haitians.  From January through September, U.S. Border Patrol made 22,187 arrests of Chinese nationals for illegally crossing the border from Mexico. Panamanian officials registered 15,567 Chinese citizens crossing the Darién for the first nine months of 2023.  Chinese social media is full of complete guides on how to complete the trek.  The most popular route begins in Ecuador, where Chinese citizens do not require a visa. Migrants can then pay smugglers to take them through the jungles between Colombia and Panama.  The U.N. predicts that 310,000 Chinese people will leave through emigration this year, compared with 120,000 in 2012, due to a combination of factors including high unemployment, a struggling economy, and a restrictive political climate.  Many seek asylum upon arrival in the U.S., where their claims in immigration court are in general more successful than people from other nations.  Beijing is notoriously uncooperative in regards to taking back deported citizens, so most Chinese nationals who leave remain in the U.S.  New York Times Associated Press New York Times

Gunmen Target Pakistan Passenger Bus Kills 8, Wounds 26.  Gunmen opened fire on a passenger bus in northern Pakistan, near the border with China, on Saturday, killing at least eight people and wounding 26 others.  The bus, which was traveling along Karakoram Highway, collided with an oncoming truck after the shooting began.  A spokesperson for Gilgit-Baltistan Police, Ghulam Abbas, said that two soldiers were included in the number of eight victims. No group has claimed responsibility for the assault. Chief Minister Gilgit-Baltistan Haji Gulbar Khan vowed that the attackers would be “given the appropriate punishment.” Since the Taliban takeover in neighboring Afghanistan, Pakistan’s northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and southwestern province of Balochistan have experienced a rise in terrorist attacks, including fatal shootings and bombings. Islamabad has accused Islamist extremists sheltering along the Afghan border of committing the attacks.  Al Jazeera South China Morning Post The Jerusalem Post

The Americas

Former U.S. Ambassador Arrested, Suspected of Being Cuban Agent.  Former US Ambassador to Bolivia Manuel Rocha was arrested in Miami on Friday on suspicion of serving as a Cuban government agent. Rocha’s arrest comes amid a long-running FBI counterintelligence operation. Two sources told the Associated Press that more details about the case are expected to be made public at a court appearance today. In recent years, the Justice Department has stepped up its enforcement of the law requiring people working on behalf of foreign governments to register with the department. Rocha had a 25-year diplomatic career under Democratic and Republican administrations, much of it spent in Latin America during the Cold War. Following his retirement from the State Department, Rocha began a career in business, including work for the Spanish public relations firm Llorente & Cuenca.  Bloomberg

Venezuelans Vote in Referendum on Oil-Rich Territory Disputed with Guyana.  Venezuelan voters on Sunday supported the idea of forming a new state in the oil-rich region of Esequibo, after rejecting the International Court of Justice's (ICJ) jurisdiction concerning the country’s dispute over the territory with Guyana. The swath of land, a 61,776 square mile area of thick jungle, became a source of dispute after offshore oil and gas was discovered. The ICJ has prohibited Caracas from undertaking any action that would shift the status quo of the area, though the government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro forged ahead anyway with a "consultative" referendum on the future of the territory.  No one has organized a campaign against the referendum.  Venezuela continues to maintain that the dispute over the territory should be resolved with Guyana, though the ICJ has said that it has jurisdiction. A final ruling may not happen for years. Venezuela’s vote on the issue has stirred up fears in Guyana, with President Irfaan Ali calling on nationals to remain calm and asserting that the ICJ’s Friday ruling forbids Venezuela from "annexing or trespassing upon Guyanese territory.” Brazil, which borders the disputed territory, has bolstered its forces in the area amid the increase in tensions.  Reuters New York Times Associated Press

Europe

UK Foreign Secretary Cameron to Visit Washington This Week.  Britain’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) said on Sunday that UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron is expected to travel to Washington D.C. this Wednesday for meetings with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Republican and Democratic Congressmen. This will be his first trip to the U.S. since being appointed foreign secretary last month.  FCDO said that Cameron, who is a former prime minister of the U.K., will engage in conversations concerning tensions in the Middle East as well as the war in Ukraine. Reuters South China Morning Post

Paris Knife Attacks Kills One, Injures Two.  French authorities report that a knife and hammer attack in central Paris killed one German tourist and injured two other people on Saturday.  Paris police said the suspect was arrested after the attack and pledged allegiance to Islamic State in a video before the attack.  French Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin said the suspect told police that he believed France was “an accomplice” to Israeli military actions in the Gaza Strip and was angered that “so many Muslims are dying in Afghanistan and in Palestine.”  The suspect reportedly suffered from mental illnesses and was previously arrested for plotting an attack in 2016.  French prosecutors have opened an investigation into a “terrorist plot” following the attack, which has sparked concerns about heightened risk of terrorism amid the Israel-Hamas war.  Reuters France24 New York Times

Africa

Guinea-Bissau President Embalo Claims Coup Attempt Prevented, Two Killed in Clashes.  Guinea-Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embalo described a shootout between two army factions in the capital of Bissau on Friday as a failed coup attempt.  Officials said fighting started when national guard soldiers stormed a police station where Finance Minister Suleimane Seidi and secretary of state for the treasury, Antonio Monteiro, were detained after being arrested on Thursday night.  The two were arrested for allegedly disbursing public funds without permission.  Seidi is a member of the former ruling PAIGC party, which leads the coalition that won the majority in legislative elections in June.  The victory prevented Embalo from enacting a constitutional change to consolidate power by removing the country’s semi-presidential system, which PAIGC opposed.  Guinea Bissau’s national guard reports to the parliament, while the military reports to the president.  The clashes reportedly killed at least two people.  Embalo said that the head of the National Guard, Victor Tchongo, was dismissed over the clashes and “will pay dearly” for the attempted coup.  Reuters Associated Press Al Jazeera

Ethiopia’s Oromiya Region Government Blames OLA Rebels for Killing 'Many Civilians.’

The government of Oromiya, the largest region in Ethiopia, on Saturday accused the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) insurgent group of killing “many civilians'' in assaults following failed peace talks in Tanzania.  The Oromiya government specifically accused the OLA of attacks in the Shirka district that killed at least 36 people.  The reported attacks occurred just days after the failed peace talks.  Neither the OLA or Ethiopia’s federal government have responded to requests for comments, though federal government spokesman Legesse Tulu said Ethiopia and its Oromiya regional counterparts have mustered security forces to repel the militants from areas they control. Reuters

The data cutoff for this product was 8:00a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Katharine Campbell, Leighton Durham, Ryan Simons, and Emma Fisk contributed to this report. 

Read deeply-experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis and opinion inThe Cipher Brief

Morning Report for Monday, December 4, 2023

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10:00 AM ET, Monday, December 4, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines:  

THE TOP STORIES

US Warship Responds Following Multiple Attacks on Commercial Vessels in Red Sea.  The U.S. military said on Sunday that three commercial vessels came under attack in the Red Sea by ballistic missiles fired from Houthi-controlled Yemen.  The U.S.S. Carney, an American destroyer, then downed three drones in the area.  Initial assessments indicate that at least one of the drones was launched from Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen.  U.S. Central Command (Centcom) noted that while the drones were headed towards the Carney, their “specific target” was not clear.  The Iran-backed Houthis claimed they hit “two Israeli ships” in the Red Sea in response to the demands of the Yemeni people and in support of Palestinians.  The Houthis claimed that they struck the Bahamian-flagged bulk carrier Unity Explorer with a missile and the Panama-flagged container ship Number 9 with a naval drone.  Centcom said the Unity Explorer and the Number 9 suffered minor damage from missile strikes and that a third ship, the Panamanian-flagged bulk carrier Sophie II, sent a distress signal saying it was also hit by a missile.  The Carney downed a drone when enroute to aid the Sophie II.  Centcom said the Houthis were “fully enabled by Iran” to conduct the attacks, adding that they “represent a direct threat to international commerce and maritime security” and that the U.S. “will consider all appropriate responses” in cooperation with allies and partners.  Bloomberg Washington Post Politico New York Times Reuters Associated Press Wall Street Journal 

China's Military: US Combat Ship 'Illegally' Entered Territorial Waters.  China’s military accused a US Navy ship of illegally entering Chinese waters near the Second Thomas Shoal, a disputed atoll in the South China Sea. A spokesperson for China’s Southern Theater of Operations said in a statement that the US had “seriously undermined regional stability” and violated China’s sovereignty. Beijing claims that most of the South China Sea is its sovereign territory. The US Navy said the USS Gabrielle Giffords was conducting routine operations in international waters and was operating within international law. A US Navy 7th Fleet spokesperson said the US would not be deterred from continuing to work along its allies and partners. The incident came a day after the Philippine Coast Guard deployed two of its vessels to the South China Sea after what it called an “alarming” increase in the number of Chinese military vessels round the Second Thomas Shoal, which a UN tribunal ruled in 2016 lies within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. Reuters South China Morning Post

U.S. Airstrike in Iraq Kills Five Militia Members.  Three Iraqi security sources said Sunday that a U.S. airstrike killed five Iranian-linked Iraqi militants linked near the northern city of Kirkuk as they prepared to launch an attack targeting U.S. forces. The U.S. military confirmed a “self defense strike on an imminent threat” Sunday afternoon. A statement from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a group representing several Iraqi armed organizations, said that five of its members had been killed and vowed retaliation against U.S. forces. Earlier Sunday, a U.S. military official said that U.S. and international forces were attacked at a location in northeastern Syria but there was no damage to infrastructure or casualties. Iraqi groups have claimed more than 70 attacks since October 17 in response to Washington’s support for Israel in its bombardment of Gaza. The attacks paused during the week-long ceasefire between Israel and Hamas but have since resumed. The U.S. currently has 900 troops in Syria and 2,500 in Iraq in efforts to prevent the resurgence of the Islamic State. Reuters

White House Says US Intelligence Had No Knowledge of Hamas' Attack Plan Document.  White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said yesterday that the US intelligence community has indicated it did not have access to a document detailing Hamas’s plan to attack Israel. Kirby’s comment came shortly after a New York Times report that Israeli officials had obtained the Hamas battle plan for October 7 more than a year before the attack occurred. The Times reported Israeli officials considered the document “aspirational” and the plans beyond Hamas’s capabilities. Axios

U.S. Deploying Missiles to Indo Pacific.  US Army Pacific spokesman Bob Phillips told Nikkei that the US military plans to deploy ground-based intermediate-range missiles in the Indo-Pacific in 2024, The move, aimed at enhancing deterrence against China, would establish the first American missile arsenal in the region since the end of the Cold War. The military is considering options including land-based versions of the SM-6 and the Tomahawk cruise missile. China continued to expand its stockpile of intermediate-range missiles during the years the US was bound by the INF Treaty with Moscow, and according to the Pentagon’s annual report on China’s military power, Beijing now has an estimated 1,500 missiles with ranges of between 1,000 km and 5,500 km. Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the US missiles will be deployed to American territories in the region, primarily Guam. Nikkei Asia

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Israel Expands Military Actions in Southern Gaza.  Israel has escalated its ground campaign and bombing attacks in southern Gaza after its ceasefire with Hamas expired last week.  On Monday morning, Israel’s military posted a map on X, that shows a quarter of the main southern Gaza city of Khan Younis being marked as an area that must be evacuated at once.  The map directs people there to head towards the Mediterranean coast or towards Rafah, though Israeli bombing was reported in the city near the Egyptian border.  The Israeli military added that the central road from Khan Younis to the north “constitutes a battlefield” and is closed.  Meanwhile, Israeli Brigadier-General Hisham Ibrahim said Israel’s military goals in northern Gaza “have almost been met.”  Over the weekend, Israeli military strikes reportedly targeted the Jabalia refugee camp.  The Ministry of Health in Gaza reports that over 15,500 people have been killed in the territory since the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict.  Al Jazeera France 24 Reuters Washington Post New York Times Wall Street Journal 

US Pressing Israel and Hamas to Resume Talks, White House Official Says.  White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told NBC’s Meet the Press yesterday that the US is undertaking an intense effort to persuade Israel and Hamas to resume negotiations on another pause in the fighting to allow for more exchanges of prisoners for hostages. In several talk show appearances, Kirby said Hamas is to blame for the breakdown in talks and that it had not lived up to the terms of the original agreement. Specifically, he said Hamas has failed to provide a list of women and children who could be released in addition to the 105 who were freed during the original pause. Eight or nine Americans are said to be among those still being held. Osama Hamdan, a Hamas representative in Lebanon, said yesterday that negotiations over the hostages will not resume until the Israeli assault stops. NY Times

Austin Says Civilians are 'Center of Gravity' in Gaza War Amid Criticism from Senator Graham. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Saturday that civilians are “the center of gravity” in the war in Gaza, and that “if you drive them into the arms of the enemy, you replace a tactical victory with a strategic defeat.” In remarks to the Reagan National Defense Forum in Simi Valley, California, Austin said he has pushed Israeli leaders to avoid civilian casualties, shun “irresponsible rhetoric,” prevent violence by Israeli settlers in the West Bank and dramatically expand Gaza’s access to humanitarian aid. He also said that the US “will remain Israel’s closest friend in the world” and that US support for Israeli security is “non-negotiable.” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) responded yesterday by calling Austin “naïve,” telling CNN’s State of the Union, “I just lost all confidence in this guy.” Graham said that while he understands  the Palestinians are “already inflamed,” that they are a “radicalized population,” taught from an early age to hate and kill Jews. He added that Austin is telling Israel to do things that are “impossible to achieve.” Reuters Politico CNN Axios

Vice President Harris ‘Strongly Opposes’ the Forced Relocation of Gazans After the End of the War. At a climate conference in Dubai on Saturday, Vice President Kamala Harris stated that the United States strongly opposed the forced relocation of Palestinians during and after the war. The vice president met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, where she rejected the notion that Palestinian refugee camps should be relocated to Egypt or elsewhere. A statement by the White House reinforced this idea, saying that under no circumstances would “the United States permit the forced relocation of Palestinians from Gaza or the West Bank.” The vice president also rejected the notion that the borders of Gaza would be redrawn at the end of the war. Harris made these statements after the COP28, where she met with leaders from Qatar, Jordan, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates. Harris reportedly spoke about postwar support in Gaza but didn’t share if any commitments were made. The vice president also stated that she didn’t have any new information on the 193 people who the Gazan health ministry claimed had been killed in the “past hours.” The Biden administration previously stated that Israel was taking steps to limit civilian casualties caused by airstrikes. Senior advisor to Netanyahu, Mark Regev, stated in a press conference on Saturday that Israeli forces would remain in the enclave past the end of the war to provide “security control” to the area. Regev denied that this was an attempt to take territory from Gaza.  New York Times

Israel Claims to Have Discovered 800 Shafts to Vast Hamas Underground Tunnel System. The Israeli military told reporters on Sunday that troops had discovered as many as 800 tunnels allegedly used by Hamas since October 27th. Hamas had claimed before the war that the tunnel network, which served as a base of operations, was comparable in size to the New York subway system. Israel has since focused airstrike operations on collapsing tunnels, reportedly destroying as many as 500. According to the Israeli military, tunnels were often found under civilian centers like schools and mosques.  Reuters

U.K. Military to Begin Drone Surveillance over Gaza. The U.K. Ministry of Defence announced on Sunday that the British military would begin conducting unmanned drone operations in Gaza to assist in efforts to locate hostages currently held by Hamas. U.K. officials stressed that drones would be unmanned and used strictly to support hostage recovery missions. The U.K. has also supplied Israel with aircraft and provided maritime defense patrols. Around 240 hostages were captured in the October 7th attacks by Hamas in Israel. Since then, 110 have been freed. Most releases took place during the week-long truce, which ended on Friday, complicating future hostage exchange prospects.  Al Jazeera

Israeli Security Chief Vows to Hunt Down Hamas Abroad.  Israeli public broadcaster Kan aired a recording yesterday of Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar saying Israel will hunt down Hamas outside of Gaza and the West Bank – specifically in Lebanon, Turkey and Qatar — even if it takes years. It was unclear when Bar made the comment. It comes after a recent Wall Street Journal report that Israel is seeking to eliminate Hamas leaders around the world. Reuters South China Morning Post

Henry Kissinger on a Two-State Solution and Relations with China. In what might have been his final interview, Henry Kissinger shared his opinion on the Israel-Hamas conflict and current U.S./China relations in a call with 25 other historians, reporters, and politicians. The transcript of this call was published by Politico. When prompted, Kissinger stated that he did not believe direct negotiations between Israel and Palestine would be “fruitful.” Kissinger also expressed doubt that a two-state solution would lead to lasting peace, opting instead for Jordanian rule over the West Bank post-war. Questions were also asked in regard to a hypothetical Chinese attack in Taiwan. Kissinger stated his belief that China was “not ready for such a conflict” and that the U.S. should “reconcile with China.” He claimed that the prevention of Russian and Chinese influence in the Middle East would only be brought about with a closer relationship with China. Kissinger concluded the call by saying that global leaders had failed to “master the overriding concepts, the fundamentals, and the day-to-day tactics,” resulting in many of the major conflicts witnessed today.  Politico

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Control over Devastated Eastern Ukrainian Town Uncertain.  Control over the contested town of Maryinka, in eastern Ukraine remained uncertain Friday, with unofficial reports suggesting that Russian forces had made some gains. Once a city of 10,000, current accounts of the town describe it as a ghost town. In their evening report, Ukraine’s General Staff said that Russian forces were unsuccessful in their attempts to advance on the villages near Maryinka but said nothing of troop movements in the town. Unofficial Russian blogger Rybar cited a photo circulating on social media showing Russian forces hoisting the Russian flag in the southwest of the town but noted that Ukrainian forces remained in control of other areas. Ukrainian social media acknowledged the Russian advantages but quoted soldiers rejecting the idea that Russian soldiers controlled the entire town.  This comes as Russian forces have been focused on eastern Ukraine and on seizing the town of Avdiivka, 40 km north of Maryinka. Ukraine says that they still retain control over Avdiivka but that not a single building remains intact. Ukrainian military spokesperson Volodymyr Fitio made no reference to either town while speaking on national television but said that Russian forces were launching attacks on many sectors of the 1000 km front line. President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to acknowledge that Ukrainian advance has been slow but rejects any notion that the conflict is slipping into a stalemate.  Reuters

Kyiv Accuses Russian Forces of Shooting Surrendering Ukrainian Soldiers.  Ukrainian officials accused Moscow of committing a war crime after a video appeared on social media allegedly depicted several Russian soldiers shooting two surrendering military personnel who emerged from a foxhole at gunpoint. The unverified video showed one soldier coming out of the dugout with his hands up and then lying on the ground. A second soldier then comes out and also lies down. Then, Russian troops appear to open fire and the video ends. Russia denies committing war crimes in its 21-month invasion of Ukraine. Kyiv says that they regularly violate the rules of war. Deepstate, a Ukrainian war blog which posted the video said that the footage was filmed near Stepove in the Donetsk region. The Ukrainian General Prosecutor's office said that the incident took place in the Pokrovsk district, a large area in Donetsk that runs close to the fiercely contested town of Avdiivka.  Politico Reuters Al Jazeera

Power Temporarily Cut at Zaporizhzhia Power Plant for the 8th TimeThe Ukrainian Energy Ministry and the IAEA reported December 2 that the Zaporizhzhia power plant lost power on the night of December 1 to 2 after two power lines to the facility were cut. Kyiv said that a nuclear “catastrophe” was averted after power was restored. Despite the plant not producing electricity, the nuclear reactors still need electricity to function. The power plant was able to run off of generators for nearly five and a half hours until power was restored Saturday. This incident marks the eighth complete black out, all under Russian occupation. Deutsche Welle  ISW

New Commander of the Medical Forces of Ukraine is Appointed. On Friday, Major General Anatoly Kazmirchuk was officially appointed to the position of Commander of the Medical Forces of Ukraine, as announced by the Defense Ministry. Kazmirchuk has pledged to bring a “new level of medical support” to the military as medics have often complained of poor training and poor quality medical supplies on the front lines. Medical teams have said that these inadequate resources were costing the lives of Ukrainian soldiers. The U.S. estimates that as many as 130,000 Ukrainian soldiers since the start of the war in 2022.  Kyiv Independent

NATO Chief Urges Support for Ukraine During ‘Both Good and Bad Times.’  NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Saturday that the alliance should “support Ukraine in both good and bad times” and “be prepared for bad news” from Kyiv as it continues to resist Russia’s invasion.  Speaking in an interview with German broadcaster ARD, he asserted that Ukraine is still having “big victories” even when it does not advance on the front.  His comments come amid concerns that Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive has made incremental gains on the front lines.  Ukraine has succeeded in pushing back Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and striking deep in Russian-occupied territory, namely in Crimea.  Stoltenberg reiterated that a Russian victory in Ukraine would both be a tragedy and endanger the alliance.  Regarding NATO’s response, he called for the increase in ammunition production for Ukraine and urged for greater integration and synchronization across Europe’s defense industry, saying “we’re not able to work as closely together as we should.”  Politico 

CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

New Android Malware is Being Used to Target Banking Apps in Southeast Asia. A sophisticated new malware dubbed FjordPhantom was discovered to have been targeting Southeast Asian banking apps as far back as September. Traces of the malware have been found in Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Reportedly spread through messaging services like email and SMS, victims receive instructions for downloading an app with components linking a legitimate banking service to the fraudulent code. Once installed, the malware will be able to access sensitive data within the device undetected. The engineers behind this new banking trojan are not yet known.  The Hacker News

Newly Discovered Backdoor Tools Used to Breach Global Governments and Nonprofits. Threat intelligence research company Palo Alto Networks Unit 42 has uncovered a backdoor used to exploit multiple industries across the Middle East, Africa, and the U.S. Created by unknown entities and dubbed Agent Racoon, the backdoor has been used to access education, real estate, retail, non-profits, telecom, and governments around the world. It is unclear how the firms were breached or when the attacks occurred. Most, if not all, of the attacks were against non-profit or government-adjacent corporations.  The Hacker News

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

Asia and Oceania

Philippine Coast Guard Deploys in Response to ‘Alarming’ Number of Chinese Vessels. On Sunday, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) deployed two vessels in the South China Sea in response to the “alarming” increase of Chinese military vessels in the region. The Chinese vessels have reportedly crossed into the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) around the Whitsun Reef.  According to the PCG, the number of Chinese military boats in the area has jumped from 111 on November 13 to 135 on Saturday. China continues to assert its rights to ownership of most of the South China Sea, even after an international court invalidated these claims in 2016. Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Vietnam all claim some territories, islands, and reefs within the waterway. U.S. and Australian forces have reportedly joined air and sea patrols in the region, to which China accused the Philippines of enlisting “foreign forces” to increase tensions. The Chinese embassy in Manila has not responded to requests for comments.  South China Morning Post Reuters

Islamic State Claims Responsibility for Philippines Bombing.  Islamic State militants have claimed responsibility for a bombing at a Catholic mass in the Philippines on Sunday. The attack killed at least four people and injured 50 others. The act was carried out in a university gymnasium in the southern city of Marawi.  Before Islamic State's claim of responsibility, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr strongly condemned "the senseless and most heinous acts perpetrated by foreign terrorists.”  Police and the military have bolstered security in the country's south and in the capital Manila after the attack.  Law enforcement operations to bring the attackers to justice for "terrorist activity" will "continue unabated", Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said at a press conference. There were "strong indications of a foreign element" in the bombing, Teodoro said, but he did not elaborate in order to avoid compromising the ongoing investigation.  Reuters New York Times

Wreckage of U.S. Air Force Osprey that Crashed Off Japan Found.  The U.S. Air Force announced that U.S. and Japanese divers found the wreckage of the Air Force Osprey aircraft that crashed off of southwestern Japan last week.  The U.S. Air Force said the remains of five crew members were found in the wreckage.  The body of one crew member was found and identified before the wreckage was found.  The search for the remaining two crew members is ongoing.  The Osprey had eight crew members abroad when it crashed.  Japan suspended flights of its own fleet of 14 Ospreys after the crash and has expressed concern to the U.S. about its continued use of the aircraft in Japanese airspace.  Associated Press Washington Post 

China’s Top Defense Contractors See Revenue Growth in 2022.  Six of China’s eight top defense contractors featured in a report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) saw revenue growth for the fourth consecutive year in 2022, while U.S. competitors suffered a drop in revenue from 2021.  The eight companies saw their combined revenue increase by 2.7 percent to $108 billion.  Three of the eight Chinese firms were among the world’s top 10 defense companies, including land systems specialist Norinco; China’s leading military aircraft maker Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC); and China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), the main contractor for the Chinese space program.  Analysts say the growth is due to the “uninterrupted increase” in China’s defense spending since 1995 as it pursues its military modernization drive.  Despite the dip in revenue amongst U.S. companies from 2021, U.S. defense contractors still led the industry with 51 percent of combined arms sales.  Chinese firms followed with 18 percent of share.  Additionally, the world’s top five defense contractors were from the U.S.  South China Morning Post SIPRI

U.S.-Funded, Indian-Built Sri Lankan Port Part of Efforts to Counter Chinese Influence.  The Colombo West International Terminal container port project in Sri Lanka is partly owned by The Adani Group, India’s biggest port operator, and backed by over $500 million in funding from a U.S. government agency.  This public-private partnership is part of infrastructure efforts by the Quad — which comprises India, the U.S., Australia, and Japan — to counter Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region.  The Sri Lankan port project specifically signals greater global orientation of Indian companies, stronger U.S. presence in South Asian nations, and the potential of projects with private stakeholders which do not have the same political issues associated with state-owned enterprises.  South China Morning Post

U.S. De-Risking from China Challenges Hong Kong Exporters.  U.S. efforts to diversify away from China to de-risk and strengthen resiliency of supply chains has led to difficulties for Hong Kong exporters.  Many Hong Kong businesses are relocating operations out of the city and are being forced to register in other places due to “unwritten rules” and boycott threats.  For example, Hong Kong manufacturers who have set up operations in Vietnam are being compelled to register in Singapore rather than in Hong Kong or China.  Despite this development, some Hong Kong industry leaders believe that U.S. buyers will need to make some concessions due to China’s critical role in producing raw materials.  They likewise point to the U.S. saying it does not seek full decoupling from China as a signal that there will be limits to this strategic restructuring of the global supply chain.  South China Morning Post

Belarus President Lukashenko to Visit China for Second Times This Year.  Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko headed to Beijing for talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Sunday.  This marks the second trip of the close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin to China this year.  This trip will be "a working visit” that will cover “issues of trade, economic, investment and international cooperation,” BelTA state news agency reported.  Xi previously said that the China-Belarus “friendship is unbreakable, and the two sides should constantly enhance political mutual trust and remain each other's true friends and good partners." China maintains close ties to Russia and has never condemned its invasion of Ukraine. However, Beijing has at the same time sought to frame itself as a mediator in the conflict.  Reuters

North Korea says Interference in Satellite Operations would be Declaration of War. North Korea said on Saturday that any interference with its satellite operations will be seen as a declaration of war and Pyongyang would mobilize its war deterrence against any attack on its assets.  A North Korean defense ministry spokesperson specifically warned that Pyongyang would respond to U.S. interference in space with the elimination of the “viability” of U.S. spy satellites.  North Korea claims it successfully launched its first military spy satellite on Nov. 21 and that the satellite transmitted photos of military installations in the U.S. mainland, Japan and the U.S. territory of Guam. When asked if Washington had the capability to interrupt the North Korean satellite's reconnaissance operations, a U.S. Space Command spokesman said the U.S. could deny any adversary's space capabilities using many different means.  Reuters

ANALYSIS – Increasing Number of Chinese Nationals Entering U.S. Through Darién Gap.  As China’s economy faces an increasing number of troubles, a growing number of Chinese immigrants are taking the long and difficult journey to the U.S. through Panama’s dangerous Darien Gap. According to Panamanian immigration authorities, Chinese citizens were the fourth-highest nationality to attempt a crossing of the Darien Gap this year, exceeded only by Venezuelans, Ecuadoreans and Haitians.  From January through September, U.S. Border Patrol made 22,187 arrests of Chinese nationals for illegally crossing the border from Mexico. Panamanian officials registered 15,567 Chinese citizens crossing the Darién for the first nine months of 2023.  Chinese social media is full of complete guides on how to complete the trek.  The most popular route begins in Ecuador, where Chinese citizens do not require a visa. Migrants can then pay smugglers to take them through the jungles between Colombia and Panama.  The U.N. predicts that 310,000 Chinese people will leave through emigration this year, compared with 120,000 in 2012, due to a combination of factors including high unemployment, a struggling economy, and a restrictive political climate.  Many seek asylum upon arrival in the U.S., where their claims in immigration court are in general more successful than people from other nations.  Beijing is notoriously uncooperative in regards to taking back deported citizens, so most Chinese nationals who leave remain in the U.S.  New York Times Associated Press New York Times

Gunmen Target Pakistan Passenger Bus Kills 8, Wounds 26.  Gunmen opened fire on a passenger bus in northern Pakistan, near the border with China, on Saturday, killing at least eight people and wounding 26 others.  The bus, which was traveling along Karakoram Highway, collided with an oncoming truck after the shooting began.  A spokesperson for Gilgit-Baltistan Police, Ghulam Abbas, said that two soldiers were included in the number of eight victims. No group has claimed responsibility for the assault. Chief Minister Gilgit-Baltistan Haji Gulbar Khan vowed that the attackers would be “given the appropriate punishment.” Since the Taliban takeover in neighboring Afghanistan, Pakistan’s northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and southwestern province of Balochistan have experienced a rise in terrorist attacks, including fatal shootings and bombings. Islamabad has accused Islamist extremists sheltering along the Afghan border of committing the attacks.  Al Jazeera South China Morning Post The Jerusalem Post

The Americas

Former U.S. Ambassador Arrested, Suspected of Being Cuban Agent.  Former US Ambassador to Bolivia Manuel Rocha was arrested in Miami on Friday on suspicion of serving as a Cuban government agent. Rocha’s arrest comes amid a long-running FBI counterintelligence operation. Two sources told the Associated Press that more details about the case are expected to be made public at a court appearance today. In recent years, the Justice Department has stepped up its enforcement of the law requiring people working on behalf of foreign governments to register with the department. Rocha had a 25-year diplomatic career under Democratic and Republican administrations, much of it spent in Latin America during the Cold War. Following his retirement from the State Department, Rocha began a career in business, including work for the Spanish public relations firm Llorente & Cuenca.  Bloomberg

Venezuelans Vote in Referendum on Oil-Rich Territory Disputed with Guyana.  Venezuelan voters on Sunday supported the idea of forming a new state in the oil-rich region of Esequibo, after rejecting the International Court of Justice's (ICJ) jurisdiction concerning the country’s dispute over the territory with Guyana. The swath of land, a 61,776 square mile area of thick jungle, became a source of dispute after offshore oil and gas was discovered. The ICJ has prohibited Caracas from undertaking any action that would shift the status quo of the area, though the government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro forged ahead anyway with a "consultative" referendum on the future of the territory.  No one has organized a campaign against the referendum.  Venezuela continues to maintain that the dispute over the territory should be resolved with Guyana, though the ICJ has said that it has jurisdiction. A final ruling may not happen for years. Venezuela’s vote on the issue has stirred up fears in Guyana, with President Irfaan Ali calling on nationals to remain calm and asserting that the ICJ’s Friday ruling forbids Venezuela from "annexing or trespassing upon Guyanese territory.” Brazil, which borders the disputed territory, has bolstered its forces in the area amid the increase in tensions.  Reuters New York Times Associated Press

Europe

UK Foreign Secretary Cameron to Visit Washington This Week.  Britain’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) said on Sunday that UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron is expected to travel to Washington D.C. this Wednesday for meetings with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Republican and Democratic Congressmen. This will be his first trip to the U.S. since being appointed foreign secretary last month.  FCDO said that Cameron, who is a former prime minister of the U.K., will engage in conversations concerning tensions in the Middle East as well as the war in Ukraine. Reuters South China Morning Post

Paris Knife Attacks Kills One, Injures Two.  French authorities report that a knife and hammer attack in central Paris killed one German tourist and injured two other people on Saturday.  Paris police said the suspect was arrested after the attack and pledged allegiance to Islamic State in a video before the attack.  French Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin said the suspect told police that he believed France was “an accomplice” to Israeli military actions in the Gaza Strip and was angered that “so many Muslims are dying in Afghanistan and in Palestine.”  The suspect reportedly suffered from mental illnesses and was previously arrested for plotting an attack in 2016.  French prosecutors have opened an investigation into a “terrorist plot” following the attack, which has sparked concerns about heightened risk of terrorism amid the Israel-Hamas war.  Reuters France24 New York Times

Africa

Guinea-Bissau President Embalo Claims Coup Attempt Prevented, Two Killed in Clashes.  Guinea-Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embalo described a shootout between two army factions in the capital of Bissau on Friday as a failed coup attempt.  Officials said fighting started when national guard soldiers stormed a police station where Finance Minister Suleimane Seidi and secretary of state for the treasury, Antonio Monteiro, were detained after being arrested on Thursday night.  The two were arrested for allegedly disbursing public funds without permission.  Seidi is a member of the former ruling PAIGC party, which leads the coalition that won the majority in legislative elections in June.  The victory prevented Embalo from enacting a constitutional change to consolidate power by removing the country’s semi-presidential system, which PAIGC opposed.  Guinea Bissau’s national guard reports to the parliament, while the military reports to the president.  The clashes reportedly killed at least two people.  Embalo said that the head of the National Guard, Victor Tchongo, was dismissed over the clashes and “will pay dearly” for the attempted coup.  Reuters Associated Press Al Jazeera

Ethiopia’s Oromiya Region Government Blames OLA Rebels for Killing 'Many Civilians.’

The government of Oromiya, the largest region in Ethiopia, on Saturday accused the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) insurgent group of killing “many civilians'' in assaults following failed peace talks in Tanzania.  The Oromiya government specifically accused the OLA of attacks in the Shirka district that killed at least 36 people.  The reported attacks occurred just days after the failed peace talks.  Neither the OLA or Ethiopia’s federal government have responded to requests for comments, though federal government spokesman Legesse Tulu said Ethiopia and its Oromiya regional counterparts have mustered security forces to repel the militants from areas they control. Reuters

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Katharine Campbell, Leighton Durham, Ryan Simons, and Emma Fisk contributed to this report. 

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