10:00 AM ET, Monday, August 21, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
The Americas
U.S.-Japan-South Korea Security Agreement Set to Deepen Tensions with China. President Joe Biden, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met on Friday and reached an historic security cooperation agreement. The “Camp David Principles” lay out steps for deeper trilateral military cooperation through annual talks, military exercises, missile defense coordination, and consultations during crises, including with a new communications “hotline.” The three leaders emphasized China’s “dangerous and aggressive actions” in the South China Sea, as well as threats from North Korea. They also reaffirmed support for Ukraine and a commitment to reduce “dependency on Russian energy” and counter potential arms transfers from Pyongyang to Moscow. Additionally, they agreed to establish an “early warning system” to flag disruptions to supply chains for key goods like batteries and critical minerals. The strengthening of ties between the U.S., Japan and South Korea is set to escalate tensions with China. While Biden sought to maintain that the summit was not “anti-China,” Beijing has continued to view the U.S.-led trilateral cooperation as a hostile effort to contain, encircle and suppress China with an Asian mini-NATO. Beijing is likely to respond by continuing to double down on behavior that concerns Washington and its allies, such as by holding military drills with Russia, pressuring Taiwan and engaging in assertive behavior in the South China Sea. New York Times Reuters
Analysts Predict an Era of Global “Fluidity” Between Competing Alliances. The Wall Street Journal is out with new analysis that examines the competing coalitions seeking dominance over global affairs. In a Cold War I comparison, the piece looks at the recent and historic Camp David summit led by President Biden. The gathering saw Japan and South Korea put aside historical differences dating back at least to WWII, to come together and form a trilateral agreement with the U.S. to counter Beijing’s influence and a rising nuclear threat from North Korea. On the other side of the political sphere is this week’s BRICS, the grouping of nations led by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, a summit which is scheduled to start Tuesday in South Africa. Chinese leader Xi Jinping is expected to attend the BRICS gathering in person. A notable line from the piece is “If this isn’t another Cold War, it certainly resembles one” and one analyst from the Council of Foreign Relations says that “It is not at all clear how this world will resolve into a predictable set of coalitions” predicting an extended era of coalitions trying to influence other nations to align with their respective groups. Wall Street Journal
U.S. Begins Unloading Seized Iranian Oil Cargo. According to ship tracking data on Refinitiv Eikon, the Liberia-flagged tanker MR Euphrates on Sunday began unloading Iranian crude oil from the Suez Rajan, a Marshall Islands-flagged tanker that was seized by the U.S. The Suez Rajan has been waiting off the Texan coast for over two months. Commercial agents have refused to unload the 800,000-barrel ship over concerns that customers would shun whoever decided to do so. Iran has also threatened to retaliate against any company that unloads oil from the vessel. U.S. lawmakers have long called for the unloading of the tanker, with Republican Senator Joni Ernst saying, "Finally, after months of delay, the Biden administration has listened to my bipartisan call for action and signaled to Iran that the United States will not be complacent in the face of Iranian threats." The Coast Guard, Department of Justice, and Department of Homeland Security have not yet responded to requests for comment on the matter. The oil is worth an estimated $56 million and will reportedly be used to contribute to the U.S. Victims of State Sponsored Terrorism Fund. Reuters Associated Press
Anti-Corruption ‘Crusader’ Wins Guatemala’s Presidential Election. Guatemalans elected a new president, Bernardo Arévalo, a political outsider, in elections on Sunday. Arévalo won 58% of the vote against former first lady Sandra Torres. Despite the victory, there are concerns over whether or not Arévalo will be able to take office as the country’s attorney general attempts to suspend the legal status of his party Arévalo has said that outgoing President Alejandro Giammatteu has congratulated him on his win and promised to begin the transition once the results are certified, which has yet to occur. Associated Press New York Times
Ecuador Presidential Election Headed to Run-Off. Ecuadorians voted in presidential elections on Sunday after Ecuadorian President Guillermo Lasso called for a snap election in May. Leftist Luisa Gonzalez, a protege of former President Rafael Correa, won 33% of the vote, while Daniel Noboa, son of prominent banana tycoon and former presidential candidate Alvaro Noboa, won 24% of the vote. Since neither candidate secured at least 50% of the vote, the election is set to head to a run-off vote in October. A new president is expected to take office by October 26 and serve out the remainder of Lasso’s term. France 24 Al Jazeera Associated Press
Western Europe
Netherlands, Denmark Promise to Deliver F16 Fighter Jets to Ukraine. The Netherlands and Denmark have committed to supplying Ukraine with F16 fighter jets, according to an announcement by the two countries. The first deliveries of the jets are expected by the start of next year. Denmark will reportedly send 19 jets in total, and while the Netherlands has 42 available jets it has yet to say how many it will give to Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a Telegram post that Kyiv will receive 42 jets. Denmark’s defense minister told reporters that the jets, like all other donated Western military equipment, can only be used in Ukrainian territory to drive out Russian forces. The promised delivery of the jets comes a few days after the U.S. committed to approving their transfer after training for Ukrainian pilots is completed. Zelensky said that the jets will help strengthen the country’s air defenses and later added that he is “confident that Russia will lose this war.” Russia’s Ambassador to Denmark criticized the decision to send the jets, saying it will “escalate the conflict”. Al Jazeera Reuters Deutsche Welle France 24
Zelensky Visits Sweden, Asks for Gripen Jets. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson in Stockholm on Saturday. Zelensky told reporters that the two had preliminary talks about Sweden potentially giving its Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine, adding that Ukrainian pilots have begun training on the planes. The Swedish government has previously said it would allow Ukrainian pilots to test the jets, but that it needs all its planes to defend Swedish territory. Separately, Ukraine and Sweden agreed to a deal in which Ukraine will start producing Sweden’s CV90 combat vehicle. Reuters
Central & Eastern Europe
Ukrainian Pilots Begin Training on F-16 Fighter Jets. Ukrainian pilots have begun training on F16’s according to an announcement over the weekend by Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov. Reznikov refused to offer specifics on when the training would be complete, but he did offer that the minimum required time frame for the training is six months. In addition to flying skills, trainees will also undergo English language training to bolster their ability to understand complex technical language needed to operate the aircraft. The training mission is being supported by 11 NATO countries. The announcement comes after U.S. officials stated on Friday that Washington has approved delivery of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine once training is complete. CNN
Russia's First Lunar Mission in Nearly 50 Years Lost in Crash. Russia’s first moon mission in over 47 years failed after its Luna-25 spacecraft lost control and crashed into the moon during pre-landing orbit on Saturday. Roscomos, Russia’s state space corporation, said that the craft had moved into an “unpredictable orbit and ceased to exist” as a result of the collision on the moon's surface. A special interdepartmental commission at Roscomos is investigating the reasons behind the loss of the craft. Analysts say the failure underscores the decline of Russia’s space program since the Cold War when Moscow was the first to launch a satellite into orbit. Moscow has not attempted a moon mission since Luna-24 in 1976 but has recently been in a race against India, whose Chandrayaan-3 spacecraft is set to land on the moon’s South Pole this week. Russia had originally planned for a Monday landing on the moon’s surface. CNN Reuters New York Times Wall Street Journal
Deadly Russian Strike Hits City Center in Northern Ukraine. A Russian missile impacted the center of Chernihiv in northern Ukraine on Saturday. Seven people have died and more than 100 were injured, including 12 children, according to Ukrainian officials. The Ukrainian Interior Ministry said the missile struck as people were leaving a church after celebrating a holy day. Ukrainian officials released graphic footage of the initial blast and the devastating aftermath. The youngest known victim was a 6-year-old girl. Ukrainian President Volodymyr says the attack should serve to remind the world that it needs to stand united against “Russian terror.” CNN New York Times
Ukrainian Drone Attacks Reported Across Russia. Russian officials said Ukrainian drones attacked four separate regions on Sunday. Officials said attempted drone strikes targeted sites in Russia’s western Kursk, Rostov and Belgorod border regions. Kursk regional officials said an attack on Kursk city’s railway station injured five people. Russia’s defense ministry said it prevented two drone strikes in Belgorod and that it foiled attacks by two other Ukrainian drones in the Moscow region. The ministry added that the drones in the Moscow region forced authorities to disrupt nearly 50 flights at the Russian capital’s four main airports. Separately, Russian sources said earlier on Saturday that a Ukrainian drone strike hit the Soltsy airbase in Novgorod Oblast. The ministry said it intercepted a drone and that one aircraft was damaged. A Russian insider source claimed that at least two aircraft were damaged and that the base housed Tu-22M3 long-range supersonic bombers. Al Jazeera Reuters Institute for the Study of War
Russian Aerospace Forces Likely Under Pressure Over Drone Attacks. The British Defense Ministry says that Russia’s Aerospace Forces (VKS) is likely under intense pressure to bolster air defenses in western Russia to address the increasing number of drone attacks in the region. Moscow blames the attacks on Ukraine, which has not claimed responsibility for them. The ministry said the attacks are “strategically important” since they disprove Russian President Vladimir Putin’s likely assessment that the Ukraine war would not have a large direct impact on people inside his country. Kyiv Independent UK Ministry of Defense Twitter
Ukraine Continues Counteroffensive. Geolocated footage shows that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in Melitopol and Berdyansk and advanced near Robotyne. Ukraine’s deputy defense minister Hanna Maliar said Ukrainian troops retook 1.2 square miles near Bakhmut, but that there were no significant changes on the southern front. She added that the situation in Kupiansk remains “difficult,” but Ukraine’s forces are maintaining defenses there against Russian attacks. She also said that Russian forces continue to move against Lymansky, Avdiivsky and Marinsky and are continuing to shell the Zaporizhzhya, Kherson and Mykolaiv regions, including with Lancet barrage ammunition. Al Jazeera Institute for the Study of War
Reporting From the Front: Ukrainians Upbeat About Being on the Offensive. Ukrainian commanders on the frontlines say they are in better shape than they were six or 12 months ago, noting that they have moved from conducting defensive operations to having the ability to be on the offensive. Commanders interviewed in recent weeks say that they are now better trained and equipped than ever, thanks to Western aid. They also say their units have grown in professionalism in size and that they have figured out how to reinforce their ranks after losses. And they say that Russian forces are in a much poorer state than they were at the start of the war. The optimism comes despite difficulties in Ukraine’s counteroffensive due to entrenched Russian defenses and sustained firepower. Some commanders noted that they were disappointed that the counteroffensive has not been more successful, but they remain confident that they will break through Russian lines in a matter of time, with one commander saying “we don’t have a choice” if fighting takes longer. New York Times
Putin Meets With Top Generals in Southern Russia. The Kremlin revealed Saturday that Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the chief of Moscow’s operations in Ukraine and other top military officials in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don. The Kremlin said Putin met Chief of the General Staff General Valery Gerasimov and other top military brass at the Southern Military District (SMD) headquarters in the city. Moscow did not specify when the meeting took place or provide any other details, but footage published by RIA state news showed Gerasimov shaking Putin’s hand and leading him inside a building. The meeting reportedly marked the first time Putin visited Rostov-on-Don since the Wagner Group took control of the SMD headquarters in its rebellion in late June. Reuters Institute for the Study of War
Analysis: Putin’s Absence from BRICS Summit Underscores Isolation. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s no-show at the recent BRICS meeting in South Africa has demonstrated Russia’s isolation and the difficult situation Putin faces on the global stage. His absence was mainly due to the International Criminal Court (ICC) issuing a warrant for his arrest for his alleged role in the forced deportation of Ukrainian children. As a signatory of the ICC treaty, South Africa was obliged to arrest Putin if he traveled for the summit. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov therefore stood in for Putin at the meeting. Moscow has sought to spin Putin’s no show, with the Russian president himself saying in late July that his attendance was not “more important than my presence in Russia now.” Russia has also tried to deflect from his absence by focusing on the narrative of it being an anti-colonial power, with Lavrov calling against “Western domination promoted by the U.S.” which he said is “trying to slow down” the inevitable development of a multipolar order. CNN
Asia & Oceania
China Launches Military Drills in Response to Taiwanese VP’s Stops in U.S. China on Saturday initiated military exercises around Taiwan in retaliation for Taiwanese Vice President William Lai's stopovers in New York and San Francisco last week. In a terse statement, the People's Liberation Army's Eastern Theatre Command announced it was performing joint air and naval combat readiness patrols to drill the forces’ “actual combat capabilities” around the self-governing island, which Beijing claims as its own territory. The Taiwanese defense ministry said that from Saturday morning it detected 42 Chinese aircraft and eight ships involved in exercises, and that 26 Chinese aircraft crossed the unofficial median line of the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan deployed vessels and aircraft in response. Beijing’s Eastern Theatre Command reported that the drills are centered on anti-submarine exercises to the north and southwest of Taiwan, ship-aircraft collaboration, and taking control. It said, "this is a serious warning against Taiwan independence separatist forces colluding with external forces to provoke." Taipei has denounced China’s moves, with the island’s Mainland Affairs Council urging Beijing to cease intimidation tactics, asserting that Taiwan “is a sovereign country and has a legitimate and legal right to conduct normal diplomatic interactions with friendly countries.” Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said that China’s “irrational provocations . . . fail to maintain peace and stability” and emphasize an “aggressive and bellicose mind-set.” A U.S. State Department spokesperson said Washington was monitoring the situation and cautioned Beijing to halt “its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure against Taiwan and instead engage in meaningful dialogue." Reuters Wall Street Journal New York Times Bloomberg Taiwan News
North Korea’s Kim Oversees Cruise Missile Test. North Korean state news agency KCNA said Monday that the country’s leader Kim Jong Un visited a navy fleet and directed a test of strategic cruise missiles from aboard a warship off the east coast, just as the joint U.S.-South Korea Ulchi Freedom Shield military exercises began. KCNA did not say when the test took place but reported that the launch prepared sailors for war and tested the "combat function of the ship and the features of its missile system.” Kim asserted that the vessel would sustain "high mobility and mighty striking power and constant preparedness for combat to cope with sudden situations." Pyongyang has condemned Washington and Seoul for the military drills, which South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol said would center on multiple contingency scenarios, including terror, cyber and drone attacks, and a disinformation campaign by North Korea. Reuters France 24
China Investigating Citizen Accused of Working for CIA. China’s security ministry says it is investigating a 39-year-old Chinese national suspected of spying for the CIA. The Chinese citizen, whose gender was not specified, has the surname of Hao and worked as a cadre in a ministry before moving to Japan to study. The security ministry claims Hao met an American embassy official called "Ted," who introduced Hao to a coworker named Li Jun. Li allegedly "instigated Hao into rebelling" after revealing themself as a Tokyo-based CIA agent, and Hao reportedly returned to China to work in a national department while providing the CIA with intelligence. The American embassy in Beijing has not yet responded to requests for comment, and the embassy in Tokyo referred all questions to the CIA. China has recently cracked down on espionage, urging all of its citizens to participate in anti-spying work and extending counter-espionage legislation in July. This is also the second instance this month in which Beijing has accused a Chinese national of spying for the CIA. Reuters Deutsche Welle
Australia Buying U.S. Tomahawk Missiles. Australia on Monday finalized a deal to purchase 200 Tomahawk cruise missiles, built by RTX Corp, from the U.S. for $833 million as part of its broad defense overhaul. Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles, who said that Australia will become one of only three nations to own Tomahawks, described the purchase as part of efforts to bolster Australia’s defenses to “hold our adversaries at risk further from our shores and keep Australians safe in the complex and uncertain world in which we live today.” The missiles, which have a range of 932 miles, will be deployed on the Royal Australian Navy's Hobart-class destroyers. The defense ministry also announced that Canberra will buy long-range anti-tank guided missiles for the Australian Army's Boxer combat reconnaissance vehicles, in addition to more than 60 advanced anti-radiation guided missiles. Reuters Deutsche Welle
India to Potentially Become First to Land on Moon’s South Pole. India may become the first country to land on the south pole of the moon. The Indian Space Research Organization says that its Chandrayaan-3 spacecraft has successfully slowed down on its approach to the moon and will attempt a landing on Wednesday. The spacecraft is India’s second attempt to land in an area on the lunar surface that is believed to possibly contain water. The Indian mission comes days after the crash of Russia’s Luna-25 spacecraft into the moon’s surface. BBC Reuters Wall Street Journal
Pakistan's President Refuses to Sign National Security Laws. Pakistani President Arif Alvi announced on Sunday that he refused to sign into law two bills that would give authorities more power to prosecute people for acts against the state and military. While Alvi did not sign the Official Secrets Amendment Bill 2023 and Pakistan Army Amendment Bill 2023, he reportedly did not return the draft bills to the legislature within 10 days, meaning that the measures became law anyways. Alvi said he directed his staff to return the bills unsigned within the stipulated time, but that they “undermined” his orders. Alvi is part of former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, which opposes the coalition government that passed the bills. Reuters
Middle East & Northern Africa
Two Israelis Killed by Suspected Palestinian Gunman. A 60-year-old man and his 26 year-old son were shot dead in the Palestinian village of Huwara in the occupied West Bank. A spokesperson for the ambulance service stated that “both were unconscious and had sustained gunshot wounds to their bodies.” No suspect has been arrested in connection to the shooting, though Israeli authorities reportedly suspect a Palestinian gunman was behind the attack. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has condemned the shooting and said “security forces are redoubling their efforts to apprehend the murderer and settle accounts with him, just as we have done with all murderers until now.” Separately, another shooting attack in the city of Hebron in the southern occupied West Bank killed an Israeli woman and seriously injured an Israeli man. The Israeli army is also searching for the suspect behind that attack. Al Jazeera
Sub Saharan Africa
Niger Coup Leader Proposes Three-Year Transition of Power. Niger coup leader General Abdourahmane Tchiani on Saturday proposed a three-year transition of power after meeting with a delegation from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWA) in the Nigerien capital, Niamey. The principles for the transition would be decided within thirty days at a dialogue hosted by the ruling military council. ECOWAS has already imposed severe sanctions on Niger and has ordered the deployment of a “standby force” to restore constitutional rule. The bloc has also announced an undisclosed “D-Day” for a possible military intervention. This decision comes after reports of alleged discontent amongst Niger’s military, much of which has been pulled into Niamey, leaving outlying regions of the country more vulnerable. Al Jazeera
South African President Says Country Will Not be Bullied to Side with Global Powers. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa promised on Sunday that his country will not be bullied into siding with global powers, as the country prepares to host a meeting of BRICS nations in Johannesburg this week. Ramaphosa made the comments on Sunday night during a State of the Nation address. South Africa has come under scrutiny over its relationship with Moscow as it refuses to condemn the invasion of Ukraine and continues engagement with Russia. Ramaphosa will be joined by the presidents and prime ministers from China, India, and Brazil, while Russia will be represented by its foreign minister. Around 50 other non-BRICS member leaders are also expected to be in attendance. Russian President Vladimir Putin will not participate in person since he is targeted by an International Criminal Court arrest warrant that South Africa is supposed to enforce. Al Jazeera
Cyber & Tech
Suspected North Korean Hackers Direct ‘Spear-Phishing’ Attacks at U.S.-ROK Exercises. Hackers suspected of affiliation with North Korea are targeting a joint U.S.-South Korean military exercise, according to South Korean Police. Cybersecurity researchers say that Kimsuky, a North Korean group, have conducted email hacking operations against South Korean contractors working at the combined exercises war simulation center for the 11-day Ulchi Freedom Guardian summer exercises. Police announced that classified military information was not compromised in the hacking operation. Kimsuky hackers are linked to prior “spear-phishing” email attacks that lure targets into revealing passwords or triggering malware downloads through email attachments. South Korean police said a joint investigation with U.S. military officials discovered that the IP address used in the hack was identical to the address used in a 2014 hack against a South Korean nuclear reactor facility. North Korea has previously denied any role in cyberattacks. Deutsche Welle Reuters
Chinese Testbed Satellite Features Onboard AI-Powered Processing Capability. The Chinese company, Star.Vision, has launched a satellite into orbit that features an AI-powered intelligence processing unit. The device, called the String Edge AI Platform, operates as the WonderJourney-1A (WJ-1A) satellite’s onboard brain, conducting real-time calculations and processing that previously were performed by ground control centers. Star.Vision spokesperson Chen Junrui said “WJ-1A can handle it on the fly.” The satellite’s current objective is to perform system testing, by running and validating various intelligent applications and evaluating their efficiency in orbit. Applications under review range from connections with future smart cars and drones to monitoring and evaluating environmental conditions, including forest fire locations and soil moisture levels. Chen noted that the WJ-1A satellite is equipped with a variety of cameras to perform imag processing tasks, explaining that “through image semantic understanding, it can recognize forests and oceans. It is also capable of target identification, lossless compression, and data cleaning.” The spokesperson said that the “String Edge” AI device should ack as an “AI assistant in space,” communicating with ground crews in a manner similar to human interactions with ChatGPT. Chen compared the AI platform to “an untapped ‘brain;’ in order to make it smarter, more users from various industries are needed to teach it.” South China Morning Post
Britain Plans $127 Million Chip Investment To Advance AI Research Center. Britain is in discussions with Nvidia, AMD, and Intel for the purchase of AI-powered chips for use in a planned UK “AUI Research Resource.” Up to $127 million is planned to be committed by the government as Britain seeks to keep pace in the global AI development race. It has been noted that the UK is well behind the U.S. and Europe in the computing resources needed to develop sophisticated AI models. A government assessment earlier this year criticized the lack of a “dedicated AI compute resource,” recommending that at least 3,000 “top-spec” GPUs be made available as soon as possible. A science funding body, UK Research and Innovation, is leading the effort for an order of up to 5,000 graphics processing units (GPUs) from Nvidia, whose chips power AI models such as ChatGPT. The government is expected to advocate for more funding to be released in the Autumn Statement, which could take place around an AI safety summit in November. GPU’s will be used to construct the AI Research Resource for operations by next summer. The Telegraph
Australian Internet Domain Manager Denies Data Breach by ‘NoEscape’ Ransom Gang. Australia’s administrator for Internet domains, auDA, has denied any impact from a data breach after the NoEscape ransomware gang added the organization to its “victims” list. auDA, as the manager of over 4 million domain names in the .au register, is considered part of Australia’s critical infrastructure. Earlier in the month, NoEscape claimed to have breached the organization and stolen 15 GB of sensitive data, including personal information. auDA denied any data compromise, saying “we have so far found no evidence of such a breach,” while noting that the ransomware gang “provided evidence of a small sample of data they say is in their possession. It includes screenshots of a file list from a computer.” The domain administrator’s investigation of the ransomware claim continues with the help of a cybersecurity firm. CyberKnow researchers said that much of the information NoEscape claims to have extracted would not be managed by auDA, such as medical information. The Record
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