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10:00 AM ET, Friday, September 29, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

TOP STORIES:

Senior US, China Diplomats Meet in Washington in Latest Dialogue.  U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink met with Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Asia Sun Weidong in Washington yesterday, the latest in a series of talks between senior officials of the two countries. The State Department said the “candid, in-depth, and constructive” conversation covered several issues, including Burma, North Korea, maritime matters, and “the importance of maintaining peace and stability” in the Taiwan Strait.  China’s foreign ministry said the talk was based on bilateral consensus and held at the invitation of the U.S.  The ministry added that Sun reiterated China’s position on issues like the one-China principle, U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy and the South China Sea while emphasizing that “positive interaction” between Washington and Beijing” is in their “common interests.”  Reuters U.S. Department of State South China Morning Post

Senators Back Resolution Calling On Russia to Release Gershkovich and Whelan.  A bipartisan group of more than two dozen US senators is backing a resolution calling on Russia to release Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and businessman Paul Whelan. The resolution, led by Sens. Jim Risch (R-ID) and Ben Cardin (D-MD) of the Foreign Relations Committee, also urges the Biden Administration to raise the Gershkovich case in all dealings with Moscow, and calls on Russia to provide “full, unfettered, and consistent consular access” for Gerschkovich while he remains in detention. The resolution was timed for the six-month anniversary of Gershkovich’s arrest on March 29 by the FSB on a charge of espionage.  Russian courts have ordered that he remain in pre-trial detention until at least November 30.  Whelan, also charged with espionage, has been imprisoned since late 2018.  Gershkovich and Whelan deny all charges and the U.S. has declared both of them wrongfully detained.  Wall Street Journal

Expert Perspective: U.S. Must Be Careful Amid Escalating Tensions Between the Philippines and China.  Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander and Cipher Brief Expert, Admiral James Stavridis (Ret.) assesses how the U.S. should respond to the escalating tensions between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea.  The latest incidents, including China’s installation of a floating barrier near the Scarborough Shoal, have led to an escalation in rhetoric between Beijing and Manila.  These incidents come as Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. moves to “return to normal relations” with the U.S. and as Washington works to bolster alliances in the broader region.  It also comes as the U.S. continues “freedom of navigation” patrols in the region, which has been met by increasingly assertive responses from Chinese warships.  Stavridis warns that the main danger in these developments is the potential for miscalculation that could spiral into a conflict between U.S. and Chinese forces.  He says that the U.S. Navy must be careful to avoid ship-to-ship or aircraft confrontation with China and argues that the best way to achieve this is to negotiate a set of “mutually agreed protocols on behavior and de-escalation” with Beijing.  Without these rules, Stavridis said the U.S. should be extremely cautious about how its naval vessels operate around Chinese counterparts, avoiding the use of detectable capabilities — like fire-control radars, active sonar transmission, or opening and closing torpedo bay doors — and not aggressively cutting into the path of Chinese warships.  Stavridis also recommended that the U.S. cooperate more with regional allies in joint freedom of navigation patrols and training as part of a much-needed strategy to deter China’s coast guard vessels and naval militias.  He also warned that tensions in the region will likely escalate further in the coming months ahead of Taiwan’s national election in January.  Bloomberg 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE:

Ukraine Claims Responsibility for Attack on Power Facility in Russia’s Kursk Region.  Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) confirmed it was behind an attack on an electrical substation in Russia’s Kursk region on Friday.  The security service said it targeted the facility since it provided electricity to key Russian military facilities and implied that if Russia continues attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, Kyiv will retaliate in kind.  Ukrainian media later cited a SBU source saying the service used a drone to destroy a Russian radar sytem in the Kursk region.  However, Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the Head of Ukraine's Presidential Office, later said such attacks within Russia's territory are the work of Russian citizens.  Kursk’s governor said five settlements and a hospital in the southwest of the region lost power after a drone strike.  Russia’s Defense Ministry also claimed on Friday that Russian air defenses intercepted 10 Ukrainian drones over Kursk and the Kaluga region southwest of Moscow.  CNN Euronews Kyiv Independent Washington Post

Russian Shelling in Ukraine Kills at Least 5.  Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian President’s Office, said shelling from Russian artillery killed at least three women on Thursday in the city of Kherson.  The Kherson region prosecutor’s office said the attack targeted a residential district of the city.  Another Russian shelling attack on the settlement of Krasnohorivka, west of the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk, killed two people and injured three others, according to the Prosecutor General’s Office.  Officials said three more people were injured when Russian forces used KAB aerial bombs in a separate attack on the Donetsk region town of Kostiantynivka, west of Russian-occupied Bakhmut.  A Russian missile attack on Mykolaiv also reportedly hit an infrastructure facility on Friday.  Reuters CNN Kyiv Independent

Putin Meets Former Top Wagner Commander to Discuss Ukraine War.  Russian President Vladimir Putin met with a former senior commander of the Wagner Group, Andrei Troshev, late Thursday to discuss how to best use “volunteer units” in the Ukraine war and elsewhere.  Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yekurov, who has recently traveled to countries where Wagner has had a presence, also attended the meeting.  Putin reportedly appointed Troshev to lead the “volunteer units,” according to a transcript of the meeting published by the Kremlin.  Troshev’s remarks at the meeting were not released.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov added that Troshev, who reportedly fell out with Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin in June, now works for the Russian’ defense ministry.  Observers say the meeting aimed to show the Russian state has now gained control of Wagner following its failed June mutiny and the death of Prigozhin and other senior commanders in August.  The Ukrainian military has reported that Wagner fighters are redeploying in Ukraine, but they played down the significance of their involvement since they are spread along front lines and fighting individually in various capacities rather than as one unit.  Financial Times Reuters

Ukrainian Pilots Start Language Training on F-16 Fighter Jets in U.S.  The Pentagon said yesterday that Ukrainian pilots have begun English language classes as part of their training to fly US F-16 fighter jets. The instruction is taking place at the Defense Language Institute English Language Center at Lackland Air Force Base in Texas. The training, which is critical because the jet’s instrumentation and operations manuals are in English, is expected to last for several weeks. After completing the course, pilots will go to Morris Air National Guard Base in Arizona for training on the F-16s. Plans are also in the works for training maintenance personnel.  CNN Kyiv Independent

Ukraine Deploying BM-21 Rocket Launchers Despite Flaws.  Both Russia and Ukraine continue to employ the 1960s-era BM-21 rocket launcher despite its flaws. The BM-21 can fire up to 40 rockets in 20 seconds, which can cover an area as large as 10 football fields. Most of the rockets have a range of 12 miles, but some can reach twice that. However, experts point out that the weapon has no guidance system, as later generation weapons systems such as HIMARS have, and this lack of accuracy is the reason the BM-21 needs so many rockets to be effective. This presents a major problem for Ukraine, which analysts say has depleted its stockpile of BM-21 missiles and is now dependent on other countries for replenishment. Russia, meanwhile, has deeper reserves. The truck on which the rockets are mounted has no special armor and is therefore vulnerable, and the vehicle also is prone to breakdowns. Still, Ukraine continues to use the weapon, mostly along the front lines, to hit Russian artillery batteries and infantry. The US says it has supplied 60,000 rockets for the BM-21.  Wall Street Journal

Ukraine Elected to IAEA Board of Governors.  The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced Thursday that Ukraine has been elected to serve on its Board of Governors. Eleven countries — Algeria, Armenia, Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Ecuador, Indonesia, South Korea, Netherlands, Paraguay, Spain, and Ukraine — have been newly elected to serve on the 35-member Board for the 2023-2024 period.  Energoatom, Ukraine’s state nuclear energy company, said that Kyiv has been elected to the policy-making body four times in the past, the last time being in 2009-2011.  Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba celebrated the decision, saying “its message is clear” that Moscow must extract its forces from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and “immediately return it to Ukraine’s full control.” Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said the new post would offer the country "real opportunities" to impact decisions regarding nuclear activity "that are binding for all IAEA members” and the global community.  CNN Kyiv Independent

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN:

Maker of MOVEit Application Announces Vulnerabilities in Another File Transfer Tool.  Progress Software, the manufacturer of the MOVEit file transfer tool, has announced new vulnerabilities in another file transfer tool that the firm produces.  The company said that several vulnerabilities have been detected in its WS_FTP Server that must be patched immediately.  WS_FTP Server is used by thousands of IT teams to ensure “reliable and secure transfer of critical data,” the company said.   Progress Software said the Denver Broncos, H&M Software, and Scientific American as some of the customers using WS_FTP.  The company’s advisory warning said researchers discovered eight new flaws affecting all versions of the server.  It has made version-specific hotfixes available to clients for remediation.  A Progress statement said it has not observed “any indication that this vulnerability has been exploited. The most serious of the issues carry CVSS severity scores of 10 and 9.9 respectively, which identify them as critical issues.  “Upgrading to a patched release, using the full installer, is the only way to remediate this issue,” the company statement said.  The Record

Politico Recaps AI Summit Highlights on Regulation, Rapid Adoption, Self-Governance.  Experts, legislators, and technologists offered a variety of views on the priorities and probabilities connected with AI development and governance at Politico’s 2023 AI & Tech summit Wednesday.   Politico reporters looked back at the six hours of panels and speakers and spotlighted several key themes, beginning with the observation that “the national risk-opportunity calculus for AI is still fiendishly hard.”  Almost to a person, summit participants agreed AI is impossible to ignore as applications become broadly available and integrated into familiar platforms. Michael Kratsios, former U.S. chief technology officer and now managing director of Scale AI, noted “it is something that everyday Americans can touch, feel and play with personally.”  Lakshmi Raman, the CIA’s director of artificial intelligence, recalled the technology’s benefits for the intelligence community, saying that the agency is using AI to improve tasks like language translation.  She warned, however, that AI is being deployed by rival intelligence agencies as well, citing as examples of malicious applications AI-enabled deepfakes, disinformation, phishing campaigns, and malware.  Another takeaway from the summit was legislators’ agreement that comprehensive regulation of AI by Congress is a distant prospect.  Rep. Jay Obernolte, vice chair of the Congressional Artificial Intelligence Caucus, said his near-term priority is identifying a path to legislating AI.  He recalled the multiple options open to Congress: “Are we going to do a broad-based approach with a new agency? Potentially like the EU has done? Or are we going to adopt a sectoral approach, where we empower our existing sectoral regulators to regulate AI within their sectoral spaces?”  Pending rulemaking from Congress, the Biden administration has placed hope in the voluntary commitments to self-governance that many major tech companies have made recently.  Anne Neuberger, deputy national security advisor for cyber and emerging technology, expressed the administration’s determination that AI can be “a force for good to countries around the world.”  She added that the White House continues work on an AI executive order focused on ensuring the technology would not cause social harms like bias or compromise national security.  Tom Lue, general counsel at Google DeepMind, pointed to the importance of industry, and stakeholders, joining forces “to develop shared norms and best practices around model access.”  Politico

Washington Think Tank Forms Working Group Focused on AI-Cybersecurity Nexus.  The R Street Institute, a Washington D.C. think tank, has created a working group comprising private sector, legislative, academic, and civil organizations to examine AI cybersecurity risks and applications.  Within a six-month window, the working group will assess regulatory proposals, AI use cases, and best practices in the sector.  Uniquely, the working group will focus on how AI and cybersecurity interact, with broad consideration of AI capabilities beyond generative AI.  Several congressional offices will be represented in an advisory role in the working group, including staff of Rep. Jay Obernolte, Sen. Joe Manchin, and the Senate Armed Services Committee.  Industry, research, and civil society representatives include Google, the UC Berkeley AI Security Initiative, and the Berkman Klein Center for Internet and Society.  Brandon Pugh, director of the Institute’s cybersecurity and emerging threats team, said that AI has “tremendous value to cybersecurity,” noting that it has been deployed in cybersecurity systems for years.  Regarding the R Street initiative, Pugh said “this group comes at a critical time, as policymakers are wrestling with approaches to artificial intelligence, which must account for the benefits AI offers to cybersecurity while addressing concerns in an even-handed manner.”  CyberScoop R Street

NSA Director Announces New Agency Center for AI Security Activities.  NSA Director Gen. Paul Nakasone announced that the agency’s AI activities will be consolidated into a new center that will serve as the “focal point” for tasks such as developing best practices guidelines and creating “risk frameworks for AI security.”  The AI Security Center will be housed within the Cybersecurity Collaboration Center and will collaborate with organizations in DoD, intelligence community, academia, and foreign partners.  The center also will interact with industry to help the sector “understand the threats against their intellectual property and collaborate to help prevent and eradicate threats.”  A key finding of recent studies by the NSA and Cyber Command indicated a “clear need” to focus on AI security in light of NSA’s role as the designated federal manager for national security systems.  Nakasone warned that America’s adversaries are “moving quickly to develop and apply their own AI and we anticipate they will begin to explore and exploit vulnerabilities of U.S. and allied AI systems.”  Nakasone did not identify the center’s leadership or its eventual size.  The Record

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD:

Timor President Says Military Cooperation with China ‘Never Discussed.’  East Timor President Jose Ramos-Horta said that despite closer diplomatic ties with China, his country has “never discussed” military cooperation with Beijing. He added that Australia and Indonesia can “sleep in peace” because East Timor will pose no threat to its neighbors. The comments come amid growing concern in Canberra over China’s increasing assertiveness and efforts to form security ties with developing countries in the region. Some Australian officials expressed concern after Chinese state media reported over the weekend that an agreement between Beijing and East Timor covering cooperation on agriculture and infrastructure also covered military exchanges.  Reuters

Australia to Withdraw Entire Taipan Helicopter Fleet Early after Deadly Crash.  Australia announced Friday that it is retiring its entire fleet of MHR-90 Taipan helicopters earlier than expected after a Taipan crashed in July during a joint military exercise with the U.S., killing four Australian aircrew.  Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles, who said that the helicopter had been “an important capability” for Canberra, confirmed that the fleet will not return to operations before the planned withdrawal date of December 2024.  However, he said the move did not indicate an outcome to the investigation into the crash.  Australia is replacing its Taipans with a fleet of 40 Black Hawk military helicopters, manufactured by Lockheed Martin.  The Taipans, which are built by France-based NHIndustries, which is jointly controlled by Airbus and Italy's Leonardo, had reportedly long been plagued with maintenance problems.  Airbus and Leonardo did not respond to requests for comment on the matter. Reuters Australian Broadcasting Corp

Pakistan Suicide Bombing, Separate Blast Kill at least 57.  A suicide bombing in Pakistan’s southwestern province of Balochistan killed at least 52 people and injured at least 50 others on Friday, according to health authorities and local officials.  A separate explosion in neighboring northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa killed another five people.  The attacks targeted mosques amid events marking the birthday of the Prophet Mohammed.  No group has claimed responsibility for the blasts, which come amid a surge in militant attacks in the region.  The Balochistan bombing was a rare attack against civilians as Islamist militants in the area have usually targeted security forces.  BBC Reuters Wall Street Journal Washington Post 

U.S. Official Says Blinken Raised Sikh Separatist Murder with Indian Foreign Minister.  A U.S. official has said that Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged India to cooperate with a Canadian probe into the murder of Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, during a meeting with Indian foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar on Thursday. Though the official said that Blinken broached the issue during the meeting in Washington, the formal State Department statement made no mention of the killing or of Ottawa. Ahead of the meeting, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said the U.S. has “consistently engaged with the Indian government on this question.” Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who has alleged that Indian government agents were connected to Nijjar’s killing, asserted earlier on Thursday that "the Americans will certainly discuss this matter” with India. New Delhi has rejected Canada’s accusations that it was involved in the June murder.  Reuters Associated Press Forbes Bloomberg

Germany Pledges $86 Million in Support for ECOWAS.  Germany’s Development Ministry pledged 81 million euros ($85.9 million) in support to the West African bloc ECOWAS to support its peacebuilding and economic development efforts.  Germany’s Development Minister Svenja Schulze, who met with an ECOWAS delegation in Berlin, said the aid will help the bloc both mediate ongoing crises and support crisis prevention.  ECOWAS has struggled to address the string of coups in West Africa in recent years.  It has sought to engage with the Niger military junta but has threatened military action to restore democracy in the country.  Reuters

Niger Says Militant Attack Kills a Dozen Soldiers.  Niger’s defense ministry said that at least seven soldiers were killed Thursday morning in an assault involving hundreds of armed insurgents on motorbikes in the nation's southwest region.  The ministry added that five more soldiers died in a traffic accident while traveling by car to support the unit that had been attacked.  The ministry claimed that around a hundred of the attacking militants were killed and their motorbikes and weapons destroyed.  According to two security sources, Niger deployed ground troops and helicopters in the assault.  The attack occurred around 118 miles from the capital of Niamey in Kandadji, close to the tri-border zone of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.  No group immediately claimed responsibility for the reported attack, though al Qaeda and Islamic State maintain a presence in the region.  Reuters Barron's

Somalia Car Bombing Kills Three.  A car bombing in a market in the central Somali town of Buloburde killed six people and injured another 14 on Thursday, according to local officials.  Military officials said three soldiers were killed in the explosion and that they believe the intended target was a nearby government base.  The blast followed two other attacks in the southern city of Dhusamareb, where no casualties were reported.  No group took immediate responsibility for the attacks, though Somalia faces frequent attacks by the regional al-Qaeda affiliate, al Shabaab.  Associated Press

East Libya’s Haftar Meets Putin Moscow.  General Khalifa Haftar, whose forces dominate eastern Libya and backs a rival government to the UN-recognized government in Tripoli, has met this week with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in Moscow, Haftar’s forces and the Kremlin said.  Libyan media reported that it was the first meeting between Putin and Haftar since 2019.  Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Putin and Haftar “discussed the situation in Libya and the region as a whole.”  Despite UN Security Council resolutions calling for the withdrawal of all foreign military forces from Libya, the Russian mercenary Wagner group continues to provide support for Haftar’s forces.  Al Jazeera France 24

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