10:00 AM ET, Friday, September 22, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
THE TOP STORIES:
Zelensky Finishes Washington Trip, U.S. Pledges $325 Million in Aid. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky finished his trip to Washington on Thursday, capped off by the U.S. pledging an additional $325 million in new aid for Ukraine, including $128 million from U.S. stocks and $197 million in arms from previous drawdowns. Biden also reaffirmed long-term U.S. support for Kyiv, saying that Washington will be “Staying with you” amid Russia’s invasion. The latest aid package includes artillery, ammunition, and anti-tank weapons. Biden added that the first U.S. Abrams tanks promised to Ukraine will arrive there next week. Zelensky’s visit came as the Biden administration tries to get Congress to approve an additional $24 billion in aid for Ukraine. A minority of Republican lawmakers have pushed back on further aid, arguing that the Biden administration lacks a clear strategy and “exit plan” regarding Ukraine. The White House has said it is confident the aid will still be approved due to continued broad bipartisan support for Ukraine. At the start of his visit in Washington, Zelensky met with lawmakers on Capitol Hill to appeal for further support. He also met top U.S. military officials at the Pentagon to discuss the Ukrainian military’s needs. Al Jazeera The Hill U.S. Department of State
Ukraine Announces New Joint Defense Production Program with U.S. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksky says that Washington and Kyiv have agreed to a new, joint weapons production program. The announcement came as Zelensky wrapped up a visit to DC. In a video posted to his website, Zelensky says the new program will strengthen the defense industrial base in Ukraine and called the new partnership with the US “historic”. The new program will be managed by Kyiv’s Ministry for Strategic Industries, which reportedly signed deals as part of the new program, with three US-based defense associations. Reuters
Taiwan Monitoring ‘Abnormal’ Chinese Military Activity Near Island. Taiwan’s Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng says that recent Chinese naval drills around Taiwan are “abnormal’. His comments came on Friday, where he called out Chinese amphibious drills as part of an uptick in military activity around Taiwan. Chiu added that the “recent enemy situation is quite abnormal”, which follows a statement on Thursday, described as “unusual” by Taiwan’s defense ministry which said that it was keeping a close watch on Chinese military activities near Dacheng Bay, located in China’s southern Fujian province. Reuters
Ukrainian Aid Exempt in U.S. Government Shutdown. The Pentagon said on Thursday that it will exempt its Ukrainian operations from a government shutdown if lawmakers are unable to come to an agreement by the end of the month. This will allow critical U.S. training of Ukrainian troops and transfer of weapons to Kyiv to continue uninterrupted. A Pentagon spokesman still cautioned that some U.S. aid to Ukraine “could be impacted by furloughs of personnel” and suspension of some activities not deemed essential to national security. Politico CNN
China’s Collection of Human DNA Data in Pandemic Sparks Fears of Genetic Warfare. China reportedly accelerated its collection of human genetic data from around the world during the Covid-19 pandemic through the proliferation of its Fire-Eye labs. The portable labs — which are present in four continents and over 20 countries — were established to detect coronavirus infections by identifying genetic fragments left by the virus, but many have been used and even fully converted into facilities to harvest and curate human DNA data. China’s embassy in Washington rejected suggestions that Chinese companies improperly gained access to genetic data through the labs. BGI Group, the company that makes the labs, was selected by Beijing to build and operate the China National GeneBank, a government-owned repository that includes genetic data from millions across the world. The U.S. has also linked BGI to China’s military and blacklisted its Chinese subsidiaries for allegedly using genetic data to back China’s crackdowns on ethnic and religious minorities. BGI maintains that the allegations about its subsidiaries are based on “misinformation,” affirming that it does not condone “human rights abuses” and that it is not “state-owned or state controlled.”
Western intelligence agencies are growing uneasy about China’s intentions with the highly valuable genetic data, with some raising concerns that it could someday be used for biological genetic-based weapons. However, U.S. intelligence officials believe China’s efforts to advance genetic research are mostly about economic rather than military competition for now. China says it seeks to be the global leader in biotechnology by 2035 and believes genetic information could be used in new revolutionary drugs and medical procedures. Leading in such new medicine and biotechnology could give China leverage over the U.S. and other competitors. Washington Post
UPDATES FROM THE UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY:
Chinese Vice President Han Zheng said in his address that China is committed to opening itself wider to the world and framed itself as “a member of the big family of developing countries.” Han added that China can help support its fellow developing countries, offering itself as an alternative to the current “hegemonic” system, referring to the U.S. without mentioning it by name. China has long benefited from balancing between the benefits of being a developing nation with its power from being a major economic and diplomatic counter to the West. Han also said that China is committed to an independent foreign policy and safeguarding its sovereignty and territorial integrity, adding that in regards to the Ukraine war, China is ready to play a “constructive role” for a “peaceful resolution.” Han’s comments contrast Beijing’s refusal to condemn Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine and its continued relations with Russia amid the war. Han also covered usual talking points from China, reiterating that Taiwan has historically been a part of China; saying that China supports human rights, in contrast to its repression of Uighurs and other ethnic and minority groups, as well as its crackdown on dissent; and promoting China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Reuters Associated Press South China Morning Post
Kenyan President William Ruto urged the U.N. Security Council to formally back a security support mission to Haiti, which Kenya has shown willingness to lead. According to diplomats, the Security Council could vote on a U.S.-drafted resolution supporting a multinational police deployment as early as next week. Last month, U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres said that a “robust use of force” through the police force with use of military assets was necessary to restore law and order in Haiti. In July, Kenya said it was ready to pledge 1,000 police officers to the force. The Bahamas has committed 150 personnel to the mission, and Guterres said that other states such as Jamaica, Antigua, and Barbuda are considering contributing forces. Reuters France 24 Associated Press
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas told the U.N. General Assembly that peace in the Middle East would not be achievable until the Palestinians are granted full rights. Abbas also suggested that a UN conference “may be the last opportunity to salvage the two-state solution and to prevent the situation from deteriorating more seriously and threatening the security and stability of our region and the entire world.” His comments come as the U.S. has appeared to make progress in brokering a deal to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which would have a major impact on the Middle East by bringing together two major U.S. partners which have been longtime adversaries. Al Jazeera
Guinea’s interim president Colonel Mamadi Doumbouya defended Africa’s recent coups as efforts by militaries to rescue their nations from the “broken promises” of presidents. He added that the coups demonstrate how the model of Western democracy does not work in Africa. He suggested that global leaders “look to and address the deep-rooted causes” of such developments and said Western nations should cease intervening in the political issues of Africa, as “we are insulted by the boxes, the categories which sometimes place us under the influence” of foreign powers. Doumbouya led a coup in Guinea in 2021, ousting the elected government to prevent the country from “slipping into complete chaos.” The recent coups in western Africa have been strongly condemned by western nations such as the U.S. and France, along with the United Nations who are calling for the restoration of democracy. Associated Press Reuters
Get more highlights from the UN General Assembly in our previous Open Source Reports.
THE UKRAINE UPDATE:
On the Battlefield
Ukraine Targets Russia’s Black Sea Fleet Headquarters in Crimea. Russia reports that Ukraine launched a missile attack on the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol in occupied Crimea on Friday. Russia’s defense ministry said air defenses intercepted five missiles in the attack and that one servicemember is missing. The ministry added that civilian infrastructure was not damaged, but did not give details on the status of the fleet’s headquarters. The Russian-installed governor of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhayev, said the attack caused a fire and encouraged locals to avoid the city center. Russia’s TASS news agency reported that the attack scattered debris for hundreds of meters and that many ambulances were sent to the fleet’s headquarters. Images and footage on social media showed smoke rising over the headquarters building. Ukrainian officials didn’t immediately comment on the reported attack. Ukraine has stepped up attacks on Crimea, including a missile attack on a Russian naval command post near Sevastopol on Wednesday and an air assault on Russian shipyards in Sevastopol last week, which is believed to have destroyed two Russian naval vessels. Associated Press CNN Newsweek NBC
Russian Attacks in Donetsk Injure 22. Two Russian missiles hit a residential building in the city of Kurakhove in the eastern Donetsk region on Friday, injuring 16 people, according to regional officials. Authorities said preliminary information suggests Islander missiles were used in the attack. Regional officials added that there were other attacks in Donetsk which injured two people in Petropavlivka, two people in Molodetske, one person in Toretsk, and one person in the village of Kostiantynivka. CNN
Russia Claims to Thwart Ukrainian Drone Attacks. Russia’s defense ministry claimed to have foiled several drone attacks on Friday. The ministry said Russian air defenses intercepted a drone in the southern Krasnodar region and another over the Black Sea off the southeastern coast of the Crimean Peninsula. The ministry said air defenses later destroyed two more drones and a guided missile near Crimea. CNN
Zelensky Vows to Take Bakhmut as Ukraine Reports Southern Advances. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky vowed on Thursday to liberate the eastern city of Bakhmut and two other key Russian-occupied cities. He did not specify which cities he was referring to and gave no further details, though he told reporters in Washington that Ukraine’s military has a “very comprehensive plan” to liberate occupied areas. His comments came after Ukrainian officials indicated progress on the southern front in the Zaporizhzhia region, where they said Ukrainian forces have advanced “deep into Russian defenses” in areas including Melitopol and Robotyne-Verbove. The Ukrainian military reported earlier that the first armored vehicles broke through Russian defensive lines near Verbove. Russian-appointed officials in the area claimed Russian forces are redeploying to reinforce positions in the Robotyne-Verbove area in response. Kyiv Independent Ukrinform
From Russia
UK Charges Five Bulgarian Nationals of Spying for Russia. UK prosecutors said they have charged five Bulgarian nationals with conspiracy to commit espionage after they were suspected of spying for Russia between August 2020 and February 2023. The Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) said Thursday that the five allegedly conspired “to collect information intended to be directly or indirectly useful to an enemy for a purpose prejudicial to the safety and interest of the state.” The defendants, all Bulgarian citizens who resided in London or Norfolk, are expected to appear in court on September 26. CPS said three of the five defendants were charged with “possession of false identity documents with improper intention” in February. In recent years, the UK has cracked down on espionage, passing a new national security law in July and labeling Russia as “the most acute threat” to British security. Al Jazeera Politico BBC
State of Play
Zelensky Visits Canada. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made an unannounced trip to Canada on Friday following his U.S. visit. It is Zelensky’s first trip to Canada. He was greeted by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in Ottawa and will address the Canadian parliament to rally further support for Kyiv. Zelensky will also meet business leaders in Toronto. BBC Associated Press Washington Post
Poland Says Willing to Negotiate With Ukraine Over Grain Dispute as ‘Friends.’ Polish Prime Minister Andrzej Duda said on Thursday that he is willing to negotiate with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as “friends” to resolve “difficult situations” between their countries over the Ukrainian grain dispute. Poland, Slovakia and Hungary maintained a ban on Ukrainian grain imports to protect local farmers. Zelensky criticized the move at the U.N. general Assembly as indirectly helping Moscow, which eventually led to Warsaw saying it would halt new weapons transfers to Kyiv in protest. Duda said he was more “embittered” rather than “upset” about Zelensky’s comments, saying that both sides should “stay calm” and “not raise the temperature” because the dispute “concerns a small part of our relations” and only helps others, referencing Russia. Duda affirmed that the issue must be “resolved,” noting that Ukraine is seeking help “at all costs” and will understandably sell its grain wherever it can. Poland’s agricultural ministry later added that it is willing to talk with Ukraine on the matter as long as Polish farmers are protected and “Ukrainian grain does not enter Poland.” Regarding the halt in arms shipments, Duda said it was “interpreted in the worst possible way,” clarifying that it applied to new weapons earmarked for Poland’s military modernization and that Warsaw will send arms already promised. Duda added that Poland May resume new arms transfers in the future. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded to the situation by saying “tensions will increase” between Ukraine and Poland and other European countries. He added that Poland is “quite aggressive,” but does not engage in “subversive activities and interference in internal affairs,” though Belarus is on high alert for “potential threats” from Warsaw. CNN
U.S. Accelerates F-16 Patrols Over Romania. Western defense officials say the U.S. is increasing F-16 fighter jet patrols over Romania after suspected drone debris was found in Romanian territory on three occasions this month. Officials said four additional jets will join ongoing NATO air policing and surveillance flights over Romania. The patrols will last at least a week but could be extended longer. Romania has said the drone debris did not pose a threat or signal a directed attack on Romania, but the presence of debris shows the regional impacts of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. New York Times
Another Cargo Ship Leaves Ukraine Along Black Sea Corridor. A second cargo ship left Ukraine’s port of Chornomorsk on Friday, following a corridor along the western Black Sea coast. The Palauan-flagged ship, the Aroyat, is carrying nearly 18,000 metric tons of grain and follows another grain ship that left the port on Tuesday. At least seven civilian ships have left Ukraine using the corridor, which was established to facilitate Ukrainian grain exports following Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal in July. New York Times Reuters
Turkey’s Erdogan Criticizes World’s Approach Towards Putin. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Thursday that he believes the world’s “negative approaches” towards Russia are not “correct.” He told reporters that Russia cannot be disregarded since it “is not a regular country” and has a “clear place,” highlighting its importance for global grain production. His comments follow the U.N. General Assembly, where many countries criticized Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Erdogan has sought to maintain good relations with both Turkey and Ukraine amid the war, engaging with Putin and opposing sanctions on Moscow in principle, while also sending military support to Kyiv and voicing support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Reuters
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN:
Cyber Threat Conference Announces Group to Focus on ‘Undermonitored’ Regions. Researchers from several leading cybersecurity firms have formed a cyber threat intelligence network that will focus on “undermonitored” regions such as Africa and Latin America. The “Undermonitored Regions Working Group” was announced at a SentinelOne threat research conference on Thursday. Tom Hegel, a senior SentinelLabs threat researcher, said that the threat intelligence sector has a tendency to overlook these regions, but that “it is precisely in places like Africa and Latin America that we witness these threat actors subtly shifting the balance of negotiations and playing pivotal roles in larger geopolitical strategies. These regions are shaping up to be the battlegrounds of the future.” SentinelLabs threat researchers published an analysis in March of Chinese cyberespionage activity targeting Middle East telecommunications entities, part of a global effort reaching back more than a decade. On Thursday Hegel reported that the same attackers compromised an unnamed telecommunications entity in North Africa. “The timing of this activity,” Hegel wrote, “aligned closely with Chinese telecommunication soft power interests in Africa, as the organization was in private negotiations for further regional expansion.” Hegel told CyberScoop that the group will work to understand intrusions, share intelligence with targets and defenders and possibly find ways to creatively disrupt operations. Hegel said he is looking for additional members who can “make an impact.” CyberScoop
EU AI Act Negotiator Calls for Compromise, Flexibility on Remaining Draft Bill Issues. An EU legislator who is leading negotiations on a proposed European framework for AI governance is appealing to member states to compromise on areas of dispute in order to reach an agreement by the end of the year. With two more rounds of talks scheduled in October to resolve differences over the European Commission’s draft AI proposal, unresolved issues center on biometric surveillance and the use of copyrighted material by generative AI tools like ChatGPT. In an interview with Reuters, Brando Benifei, co-rapporteur in the European Parliament for the EU’s AI Act, called for greater flexibility among member states, describing the Act as “a ‘stress test’ to some extent.” Netherlands Minister for Digitalization Alexandra van Huffelen, who is attending the UN General Assembly in New York, said there is increasing awareness in member states of the value of “having good and workable and transparent regulation on AI in Europe." The debate over copyright pits legislators who favor AI Act coverage of the topic against those who believe it is covered by existing copyright law. An unnamed advisor to the European Commission said the other major issue, biometric surveillance, could go “down to the wire.” Svenja Hahn, who also serves on the negotiating team, expressed her personal opinion of the differences: "I believe biometric facial surveillance should not be in the AI Act. It should be banned. Copyright should be dealt with in the copyright law." Reuters
UK AI Advisory Board Disbanded as Government Focuses on Global Leadership. Without fanfare, the British government has disbanded an independent advisory board that was formed to monitor the use of AI by public organizations. The Centre for Data Ethics and Innovation (CDEI) advisory board stopped operations in early September without announcement by the government. The board is described as focusing on pragmatic AI issues such as the technology’s use by official bodies to predict welfare fraud or analyze sex crime convictions. These focal points are said to be at odds with the current government’s promotion of its global leadership in AI governance, including the international summit it will host in November. The CDEI was formed in 2018 with the expectation that it could evolve into an independent authority to oversee public sector applications of AI and algorithms. It has been displaced to some extent by the government’s formation of a “Frontier AI Task Force” that is examining emerging issues around the technology, including how an “AI system that becomes more capable at modeling biology could escalate biosecurity threats.” A former CDEI board member said a difference in perspectives on AI safety has emerged, with the Task Force “very focused on generative AI and longer-term national security issues that they have yet to really define. Whereas the CDEI has been focusing very much on day-to-day existing uses of data analytics and machine learning, actual tools that are being used.” The Record
CISA-FBI Advisory Warns of Sectors Targeted by Russia-Linked Ransomware Gang. A CISA-FBI advisory issued Wednesday warned that Snatch, a Russia-linked ransomware group, is targeting a variety of sectors. Earlier in the summer, the FBI and CISA investigated the activities of the ransomware gang, which launches its operations from what is described as a “Russian bulletproof hosting service.” The joint advisory describes the hackers as experienced, and notes that the group is directing operations at “a wide range of critical infrastructure sectors, including the Defense Industrial Base (DIB), Food and Agriculture, and Information Technology sectors.” The advisory includes email addresses and domains associated with the hackers, urging victims to call law enforcement in the event of an attack. In earlier attacks, the Snatch gang has caused significant disruptions, including the Modesto, California police department, which was forced in January to revert to pens, paper and radios after an attack on Modesto’s IT system. In May 2022 the gang stole sensitive data of more than 1.2 million patients during an attempted ransomware attack on one of the largest hospital systems in Florida. A Snatch attack in August on the South African Defense Department coincided with the controversial BRICS Summit in Johannesburg. The gang leaked the personal phone number and email of the South African president along with 1.6 terabytes of data stolen from the country’s defense systems. The Record
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD:
Venezuela Deploys 11,000 Troops to Retake Control of Gang-Run Prison. Venezuela said it has retaken control of the Tocoron prison in the northern state of Aragua, which served as the headquarters of the powerful Tren de Aragua gang. Officials said 11,000 security force personnel were used to retake the prison, though they did not provide details on how they stormed the facility. Gang members had reportedly gone as far as to install a pool, bank, zoo, club, restaurants, and gambling rooms in the prison. Some relatives of inmates reportedly even lived at the prison. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro celebrated authorities regaining control of the prison as a “great success in the fight against criminal organizations” that broke up a hub of “conspiracy and crime.” Interior Minister Remigio Ceballos said that the inmates at Tocoron were being moved to a different facility. The Tren de Aragua gang is led by convicted murderer Hector Guerrero Flores and reportedly has around 5,000 members. The gang has been linked to robberies, extortion, prostitution, kidnappings, illegal gold mining, and drug trafficking. Venezuela’s prisons have notoriously bad detention conditions and are more than 50 percent overcrowded, according to the Venezuelan Observatory of Prisons. Al Jazeera BBC France 24
Brazil’s Bolsonaro Denies Allegation of Proposing Coup to Military Leaders. Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro rejected a Thursday report from the newspaper O Globo alleging that he met with senior military leaders on conducting a coup last January to prevent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva from assuming the presidency. Members of Bolsonaro’s legal team added that the former president “never took any measure that conflicted with the boundaries and assurances established by the constitution.” The O Globo report claimed that a former Bolsonaro aide revealed in a plea bargain testimony that the former president spoke with chiefs of the Brazilian army, navy and air force about overthrowing the results of last year’s election. The newspaper did not identify its sources. Since he left office, Bolsonaro has been the target of several probes, including one investigating his role in riots in the capital Brasilia last January 8 following Lula’s election. Associated Press
King Charles Visits France. King Charles III on Thursday made a historic speech in France, where he celebrated the “indispensable relationship” between London and Paris and vowed to deepen ties, saying that “together, our potential is limitless.” He also condemned Russia’s “unprovoked aggression” in Europe and reaffirmed Britain’s commitment to “stand in resolute solidarity with the Ukrainian people.” CNN
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