10:00 AM ET, Friday, September 15, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
The Americas
Zelensky to Meet with Biden Next Week. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will travel to Washington next Thursday where he is expected to meet with President Joe Biden. Sources say Zelensky will meet individually with lawmakers, though he will not address a joint session of Congress. Zelensky’s meeting with Biden will follow his visit to New York for the UN General Assembly meeting and comes as Congress considers a White House request for an additional $24 billion in aid for Ukraine. The request includes over $13 billion in security assistance, $7.3 billion for economic and humanitarian aid, $4 billion for border security and $3.3 billion for infrastructure support in countries impacted by the Ukraine war. There is growing opposition to the Ukraine aid within the GOP. CNN Washington Post Reuters Associated Press
Analysis; U.S. Hypersonic Weapons Development Lags Behind China, Russia. The Wall Street Journal is out with a report about challenges with U.S. efforts to develop hypersonic weapons. U.S. problems in hypersonics include failed flight tests and inadequate testing infrastructure, the difficulty and high cost of developing hypersonic weapons, and the lack of a clear vision on what hypersonic capabilities should be included in the U.S. arsenal. There is concern that U.S. rivals China and Russia’s hypersonic weapons, which they claim are operational, will alter the strategic balance in their favor. China, for example, could assert dominance in the South China Sea and East Asia with hypersonic missiles, and although Russia’s hypersonic weapons are based on less-sophisticated Cold War-era research, they could still threaten NATO forces in Europe. (Editor’s note: U.S.-made Patriot air defense systems have reportedly destroyed multiple Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missiles so far in the Ukraine war.) Beijing and Moscow have also touted hypersonics that can reach the U.S. To counter this, the Pentagon is pouring resources into hypersonics, with $5 billion in its 2023 budget allocated to the weapons. It is also reaching out to the private sector for support. Some are calling for more of a focus on defenses against hypersonic weapons, while others have argued that hypersonic aircraft are more important. Wall Street Journal
Reuters/Ipsos Poll Finds Broad U.S. Support for Military Action in Mexico Against Drug Cartels. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that about half of Americans support U.S. military involvement in Mexico to counter drug cartels. Survey results showed that fifty-two percent of respondents support the idea, while 26% are opposed. Republicans were in favor 64% to 28%, while Democrats were narrowly opposed by a 47% to 44% margin. However, 59% of respondents said they opposed unilateral action. Republicans narrowly opposed acting without Mexico’s approval by a 51% to 40% margin. The poll came after several Republican presidential candidates said they would deploy special forces or launch missile or drone strikes in Mexico against drug cartels to address the ongoing opioid and fentanyl crisis in the U.S. Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has said calls for such military action are “irresponsible” and “pure publicity.” Reuters
Western Europe
Britain, France, Germany Upholding Iran Nuclear, Missile Sanctions. The UK, France, and Germany will maintain sanctions on Iran related to its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. The sanctions were due to be lifted next month as agreed to in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), but the European states said they will extend the sanctions in “direct response to Iran’s consistent and severe noncompliance” with the deal and that the measures will remain until Tehran is “fully compliant” with the accord. The European allies noted that Iran violated commitments by enriching uranium to nearly weapons-grade levels, developed ballistic missiles and sent drones to Russia. Iran has said the move is "illegal and provocative" and "clearly violated" the terms of the nuclear agreement. BBC Al Jazeera Associated Press Wall Street Journal
Britain Officially Designates Wagner Group as Terrorist Organization. Britain officially classified Russia's Wagner Group as a terrorist organization Friday. The British government said last week it would designate the mercenary group as such since it poses a threat to global security, noting its looting, torture and “barbarous murders” in Ukraine, the Middle East and Africa. The designation makes it illegal to be a member of the organization or to support it. Reuters
Central and Eastern Europe
Ukraine Says it Liberated Village South of Bakhmut. Ukraine’s military said on Friday that it captured the village of Andriivka, near the embattled city of Bakhmut. The General Staff of Ukraine’s armed forces said Russian troops suffered significant casualties and loss of equipment in the fighting around the village and that Ukraine’s troops have fortified some positions in the area. Ukrainian officials also reported “partial success” at the nearby village of Klishchiivka. Further south, Ukrainian troops reportedly held back Russian assaults on the towns of Avdiivka and Maryinka. On the southern front, the General Staff said Russian forces have suffered substantial losses to Ukrainian assaults near the village of Verbove in the Zaporizhzhia region. Reuters Ukrinform Associated Press
Ukraine Says Putin-Kim Meeting Shows Russian Weakness. Mykhailo Podolyak, advisor to the Head of the Ukrainian Presidential Office, said Thursday that the talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un were “a manifestation of Russia's incapacity.” He argued that Russia’s “need to beg for help” from Pyongyang is “a reason for jokes,” though he added that Kyiv was taking the matter seriously and “making its own calculations.” The talks between Putin and Kim reportedly focused on military issues and came as the U.S. warned about a potential arms deal between Russia and North Korea. U.S. officials have said that such an agreement would show Russia is struggling to sustain its military amid its invasion of Ukraine and must turn to alternate suppliers, like Pyongyang, due to Western sanctions and a strained domestic military industrial base. CNN
North Korea’s Kim Tours Sanctioned Fighter Jet Factory in Russia. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un toured aviation facilities, including a fighter jet factory, in Russia’s far eastern city of Komsomolsk-on-Amur on Friday. Russian media said Kim visited the Yuri Gagarin Aviation Plant and the Yakovlev plant, which are both units of United Aircraft Corporation, an aerospace and defense company that has been sanctioned by Western powers. Escorted by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov, Kim and other North Korean military officials inspected areas of the factories where the Sukhoi Su-35 multirole fighter and the Su-57 fighter are built, watched a demonstration flight of the Su–35, and visited assembly workshops for the Sukhoi Superjet 100. Kim’s visit came as the U.S. and South Korea expressed concern over potential military cooperation between the North and Russia, with Washington on Wednesday threatening to impose additional sanctions on the two nations if any new arms deals are concluded. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said North Korea and Russia did not sign any new agreements during Kim’s visit, which focused on military issues and included meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin told reporters that Moscow is “not going to violate anything” but will continue developing relations with Pyongyang. Reuters Korea Times Associated Press Al Jazeera
Russia Jails Man for Allegedly Sending Missile Components to U.S. Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said on Friday that a Russian man named Sergei Kabanov has been convicted of treason and sentenced to 12 ½ years in prison for allegedly smuggling components in Russian air defense missile systems and radar-based weapons systems to the U.S. The FSB claimed that Kabanov sent the components through Latvia to a U.S. firm based in Alabama under the control of the U.S. Department of Defense. It is unclear how Kabanov pleaded. The U.S. Embassy in Moscow did not comment on the matter. The case came as Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of Russia’s Security Council, boasted on Friday that Russia has “identified and neutralized” hundreds of foreign intelligence agents. Reuters Newsweek
Satellite Imagery Shows Dismantling of Wagner Camps in Belarus. Satellite images from Planet Labs appear to show the dismantling of tents at Tsel military base in Belarus, which has reportedly been used by Russia’s Wagner Group after the mercenary company’s failed mutiny in June. The images, taken from late July to early September, appear to show the gradual dismantling of tents in the camp. The changes could suggest that operations at the base are winding down. Reuters
Asia and Oceania
Chinese Defense Minister Under Investigation. Sources say Chinese defense minister Li Shangfu, who has not been seen in public for over two weeks, is under investigation for the procurement of military equipment. The sources added that eight senior officials from China’s military procurement unit, which Li led from 2017 to 2022, are also under investigation. Reuters could not obtain details on the nature of the investigations. China’s foreign and defense ministries and The State Council did not comment on the matter. The Financial Times reported earlier that U.S. officials concluded that Li was under investigation, and the Washington Post cited a Chinese source who said Li was taken away for questioning last week. U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel has suggested that Li may be under “house arrest.” Li reportedly missed an annual defense meeting in Hanoi and a separate meeting with Singaporean navy officials last week. Vietnamese officials said they were told Li’s withdrawal from the Hanoi meeting was due to a “health condition.” Li’s disappearance follows the recent unexplained replacements of Foreign Minister Qin Gang and the leadership of the People’s Liberation Army’s Rocket Force. Experts say the shake-ups in China’s elite are likely related to the country’s ongoing anti-corruption campaign. As part of this, China’s military’s procurement unit said in July that it is looking to “clean-up” its bidding process. U.S.-China military communications have been stalled partially due to U.S. sanctions on Li for his purchase of Russian weapons in 2018. Financial Times Reuters Washington Post
Chinese Military’s Rocket Force Facing ‘Shortcomings.’ The PLA Daily reported on Friday that a unit of China’s elite Rocket Force experienced “shortcomings” during a field assessment of an exercise. The report, citing a Communist Party leader of the Rocket Force who attended a recent field exercise, says the unit is unable to meet the needs of troops scattered across “thousands of kilometers”. The report also noted a lack of staffing and calls for more assessments. The combat readiness of the Rocket Force, which oversees China’s conventional and nuclear missiles, has been under scrutiny after two of its top leaders were suddenly replaced in July with commanders not from the force. Reuters
Analysis: China’s Drills in Western Pacific Could Suggest New Attack Strategy. Analysts say China’s major naval and air drills in the western Pacific near Taiwan could signal a new strategy for a conflict over Taiwan. The exercises include naval drills led by the Shandong aircraft carrier that reportedly involved 42 naval ships, as well as an “island encirclement patrol” near Taiwan involving warplanes from different theater commands. Experts said the latest drills “took place without any reason” and don’t have a formal start and end, differing from past major military exercises that were prompted by engagement between U.S. and Taiwanese officials or U.S. military actions in the region. Analysts suggested that this means the drills could be part of a “cold start” strategy against Taiwan, which aims to get the island to become accustomed to intense drills and lets down its guard, which makes it vulnerable to a surprise attack when China decides to take real action. South China Morning Post
Major Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Crossing Reopens. The Torkham border crossing, the primary Afghanistan-Pakistan land border crossing, reopened on Friday after being shut for nine days due to shooting between guards on both sides. Deputy Commissioner of Pakistan's Khyber district Abdul Nasir Khan confirmed that the crossing is open “for pedestrian and vehicular traffic." The Afghan foreign ministry said Thursday evening that Pakistan's senior diplomat in Kabul had met with Amir Khan Muttaqi, the Taliban administration's foreign minister, to discuss the reopening of the border. The border was closed after Pakistan accused the Taliban forces of "indiscriminate firing” and trying to build an “unlawful structure” in Pakistani territory, while Afghanistan’s foreign ministry claimed Pakistan’s security forces shot at Afghan border guards. The crossing is vital for Afghanistan since it lies on the route between the northwestern Pakistani city of Peshawar to Jalalabad, the main city in Afghanistan’s Nangarhar province, and onwards to the capital of Kabul. Reuters
Middle East and Northern Africa
Russia Moves to Boost Naval Presence in Mediterranean. Libyan officials say that Russia has requested docking rights to either of the ports at Benghazi or Tobruk, both of which sit less than 400 miles from Germany and Italy. The request reportedly came during recent talks between Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov and Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar on expanding military cooperation. Russian officials are reportedly seeking access to the ports to allow Russian naval vessels in the area to refuel, resupply and repair. Currently, the ports already have infrastructure to accommodate Russian ships. It is unclear whether Moscow would want to further develop the ports to station personnel and store ammunition and other supplies. Although the Russian presence in the ports would not immediately threaten NATO members, the move is concerning since Russia could eventually scale up its presence there. Russian access would also increase its influence within Africa. Russia currently has access to Haftar’s air base in eastern Libya and offers support to Haftar, including by providing protection from Turkish-backed factions in western Libya. Later this month, a joint U.S. diplomatic and military mission is expected to visit Libya to appeal to Haftar to expel Wagner Group mercenaries and unify his forces with rival factions to boost regional stability. Additionally, Michael Langley, the commander of the U.S. Africa Command, and Richard Norland, the U.S. special envoy for Libya, are expected to meet separately with Haftar and Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, head of the internationally recognized government in Tripoli. Wall Street Journal
Saudi Arabia Invites Yemen’s Houthis for Ceasefire Talks in Riyadh. Saudi Arabia has invited a delegation from Yemen's Houthis to Riyadh to resume ceasefire talks. Saudi state media said the kingdom seeks to continue efforts to agree on a “permanent and comprehensive” truce and to reach a viable “political solution acceptable to all Yemeni parties.” The leader of the Houthi supreme revolutionary committee, Mohamed Ali al-Houthi, said that Oman-mediated discussions were continuing between Sanaa and Saudi Arabia. He noted that the talks would center on opening ports and airports, paying Yemeni workers, freeing prisoners, and the dismissal of foreign forces. This visit will be the first formal trip by Houthi authorities to Saudi Arabia since 2014, when the war broke out in Yemen. Reuters Al Jazeera
Sub Saharan Africa
Zambia, China Upgrade Ties. Chinese President Xi Jinping said Friday met with Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema in Beijing on Friday and agreed to upgrade their countries’ relationship to a “comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership.” Chinese state media reported Xi saying that Beijing supports Zambia in defending its national sovereignty, security, and development interests and that he hopes China and Zambia can increase cooperation in trade, infrastructure, agriculture, mining, and clean energy. The meeting came as China continues outreach to African countries and as Zambia is seeking to restructure its external debt with China. The two countries released a joint statement Friday with no mention of a debt deal but an emphasis on using local currency to settle trade and investment. Reuters
Cyber and Tech
U.S. Supercomputer Expert Lauds Chinese Achievement Following Beijing Visit. Jack Dongarra, a U.S. leader in supercomputing, said that U.S. sanctions are obscuring China’s impressive capabilities and achievements in developing next-generation supercomputers, three of which he said may already be operational. The Chinese exascale computers are expected to perform one quintillion calculations per second or better, as the U.S. counterpart at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory does. Dongarra, a Turing Award laureate and University of Tennessee professor, offered the insights in an interview with the South China Morning Post after his return to the U.S. from a computer software and algorithms workshop in Beijing in August. Dongarra said knowledge of the Chinese advances is well known even though scientists have not performed benchmark tests. He noted that China’s supercomputer performance can be discerned from “research papers published to describe the science coming out of those machines.” In 2018, Chinese state media reported the completion of three prototype exascale systems: the Sunway OceanLight developed by the National Supercomputing Centre in Wuxi, the Tianhe-3 by the National Supercomputing Center of Tianjin, and one by the Chinese company Sugon for the National Supercomputing Center in Shenzhen. Dongarra said that absence of top Chinese computers from official rankings likely results from the geopolitical tensions of recent years. He observed that “China is still the country which produces the most supercomputers. With domestic and Western-designed chips, supercomputers assembled in China are sold all over the world, including the US.” During his Beijing visit, Dongarra met officials from the Chinese Academy of Sciences to discuss potential communication, interaction and partnership. South China Morning Post
CISA Advisory Group Recommends National Cyber Alert System. A CISA advisory panel recommends that the U.S. develop a national cybersecurity alert system to provide actionable information on threats and risks using a numerical scoring system or a color-coded method similar to the DHS format used after the 9/11 attacks. A subcommittee created by the Cybersecurity Advisory Committee (CSAC), led by former National Cyber Director Chris Inglis, to explore a national alert system issued its findings on Wednesday. The subcommittee conclude that “there is a genuine need for a national cybersecurity alert system that routinizes the 24/7 consideration and provisioning of cyber alerts.” Inglis noted that CISA’s current array of reports are “not authoritative, not necessarily coherent, and they're not curated in some singular fashion over time.” Inglis acknowledged the challenges to CISA in creating the alert system, including that the agency does not currently possess the analytical means and data sources “to reliably field a national cybersecurity alert system.” The subcommittee urged CISA to meet with stakeholders to determine the types of actionable information that would be valuable to organizations and to coordinate with other agencies that might participate in the system. The subcommittee covered a number of other areas in its recommendations to CISA, including that members of corporate boards receive training on cybersecurity issues, especially in light of the new SEC rules coming into effect that require publicly traded companies to report significant system and data breaches. The subcommittee also encouraged CISA to explore performance goals to measure what would amount to a “cyber responsible” board. The Record CyberScoop
DHS Releases New Guidelines on AI, Facial Recognition Operational Use. New guidelines on the operational use of AI by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) confirm that the department will not collect or disseminate AI data and will ensure all facial recognition technologies undergo rigorous testing. The guidelines were developed by a DHS AI task force as part of the Biden administration’s policies to manage AI risks. DHS also announced that CIO Eric Hysen will serve as the department’s first chief AI officer with responsibilities to promote AI innovation and safety and advise the DHS secretary and leadership on AI issues. Under the new guidance, DHS will not employ AI-powered decision-making applications that base conclusions on “inappropriate” factors like race, gender, or ethnicity. The Hill Reuters
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