10:00 AM ET, Friday, September 1, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
The Americas
US to Continue Deporting Haitians Despite Gang Violence, Evacuation of Americans. A spokesperson from the Department of Homeland Security said Thursday that the U.S. will continue to deport Haitian migrants back to their home country despite deteriorating security situation in the nation, which has necessitated the evacuation of American citizens. The UN and other human rights organizations have urged Washington to stop the repatriation of Haitian migrants, citing the humanitarian and security crisis in Haiti. According to a Homeland Security document viewed by Reuters, a plane holding 66 Haitian migrants arrived at Port-au-Prince’s Toussaint Louverture International Airport on Thursday, the same morning in which a group of people, including some from the U.S. diplomatic mission, boarded a flight operated by U.S. charter airline Omni Air International, to fly to the US. Neither ICE nor the U.S. State Department responded to Al Jazeera’s request for comment. U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported that between last October and July, border officials have come across more than 125,000 Haitians. Haiti is facing rampant gang violence that its security forces cannot handle. Kenya is considering leading a UN-backed multinational force to bolster Haiti’s National Police. Reuters Al Jazeera
US Orders Raytheon’s AMRAAM Missiles for Ukraine. The US Department of Defense on Thursday announced a $192 million contract for the purchase of Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) from Raytheon for Ukraine. Some of the funds will be set aside for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. The government has not yet disclosed the number of weapons to be bought or the exact dates. AMRAAM, employed by fighter jets in the American military and by the US’s international partners, are guided air-to-air missiles. The Pentagon announced a $1 billion contract for the purchase of AMRAAM missiles earlier this summer. Kyiv Independent
Western Europe
EU Struggles with its African Army Support Problem Following Eighth Coup in Three Years. EU foreign ministers gathered in Spain on Thursday to discuss the wave of coups in Africa. The meeting came after a coup in Gabon, marking the eight military takeover in Central or West Africa in the last three years. Participants at the EU meeting said the bloc must evaluate its presence in Africa, warning that further instability could drive migrants into Europe and noting that EU members like France provide support and training to African militaries, which could turn on their governments. Despite the risks, Belgian Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib stressed that military support should continue where it can, asserting that it is important to maintain “gains” where possible “to avoid any domino effects, any contamination.” Many EU officials added that Africa should lead the response to its own challenges, emphasizing that the bloc should support the response by ECOWAS to Niger. The EU is drafting sanctions against Niger’s junta based on ECOWAS measures, though EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said the EU will have to deliberate if it is asked to provide financial support for an ECOWAS military intervention. Associated Press
Swedish Foreign Minister Hopeful for Turkish Ratification of NATO Bid in October. Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom said on Friday that he is hopeful that Turkey will ratify Sweden’s NATO membership bid when the Turkish parliament reconvenes in October. Speaking to reporters after meeting members of the U.S. Congress visiting Sweden, Billstrom said Stockholm received no further “signals” over the summer and assumed Turkey’s previous promise at the NATO summit in Vilnius to ensure “the swift ratification” of Sweden’s accession is still valid. However, he noted that there is still no guarantee for approval. Ankara previously said it wants Stockholm to do more about individuals it deems as terrorists and militants living in Sweden. Tensions with Turkey have also been heightened after Quran burnings in Sweden. Reuters
Central and Eastern Europe
Zelensky Says Ukraine Has New Long Range Weapon After Russian Air Base Attacked. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Thursday that Ukraine has developed a new long-range weapon with a range of around 435 miles. He said Ukraine’s Ministry of Strategic Industries produced the weapon but did not provide further details. His comments came after Russian officials reported on Friday air defenses intercepted an “unidentified object” in the western Pskov region, where an earlier air strike on an air base reportedly destroyed four military transport planes. The air base is approximately 435 miles north of the Ukrainian border, suggesting that Zelensky may have been indicating that Ukraine was behind the Pskov attacks. Ukraine’s Western allies have said it cannot use weapons they have given to launch attacks inside Russia, but they have also said it is up to Kyiv to decide how to use its own weapons. ISW reported on Thursday that Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said a new Ukrainian-made missile hit a Russian air defense unit in Crimea last week. Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov added that Ukraine now has the ability to strike all of occupied-Crimea. Associated Press BBC Al Jazeera
UK’s BAE Systems Sets Up Local Business in Ukraine. British defense giant BAE Systems is setting up a local business in Ukraine and has signed deals to accelerate Ukrainian weapons production. The company said the move will help it directly work with Ukraine to find potential partners and ultimately produce light artillery. The BBC says BAE has yet to establish an office or factory in Ukraine but is potentially doing so. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the partnership, adding that it will help Ukraine’s own weapons production, which he said is a “top priority.” BAE’s chief executive Charles Woodburn added after meeting Zelensky that the agreement will help “provide more direct support to the Ukrainian armed forces.” Ukraine is working to bolster its domestic arms industry to increase its supplies of military equipment and create jobs. BBC
Russia Says Ukrainian Drone Attack Hit Near Nuclear Power Plant. Russian officials report a Ukrainian drone attacked a town in western Russia that has one of the country’s biggest nuclear power stations early Friday. Kursk Governor Roman Starovoit claimed that the drone attack damaged the facade of a building in the town of Kurchatov, just a few miles from the Kursk nuclear power plant. There was no damage reported at the plant and no reported casualties. Russia and Ukraine have accused each other of shelling and planning attacks on the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine. Reports of the Kursk drone attack came amid other reports of drone attacks in Russia. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said a drone was intercepted approaching the Russian capital, which briefly disrupted flights at the city’s Vnukovo airport. Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov added another drone was shot down in his region. Reuters
Ukraine Reports Russian Shelling on Kherson. Ukrainian authorities said Russian shelling hit the southern city of Kherson on Friday, killing one man. Officials added that a Russian missile attack in the central Vinnytsia region injured another three people. Ukraine’s air force said it intercepted another missile over the central Kirovohrad region. Reuters
Ukrainian Troops Push On With Counteroffensive From Robotyne. After the liberation of the village of Robotyne, Ukrainian forces are now seeking to take the nearby village of Verbove, nine miles east of Robotyne, as the next step in the southern counteroffensive. The move is notable since it shows that Ukraine is confident enough that it can hold Robotyne while also pushing its troops forward. It also pushes Ukraine closer to a position to pressure the strategic rail hub Tokmak several miles south. Ukrainian troops have reached the Western part of Verbove, but have cautioned against “hype” over a quick victory, noting defenses around the town and to its south towards the Sea of Azov, as well as Russian counterattacks. Analysts also noted losses to Ukrainian forces so far and Ukraine’s reliance on reserves to assault Robotyne. Ukrainian commanders are reportedly concerned about having enough combat power to not only break through further Russian lines of defense but also continue to advance southward. Still, Western officials say that while advances so far do not yet represent a major operational breakthrough, they provide a needed boost to morale and public sentiment, mark the first real Ukrainian momentum in weeks, and show the U.S. and other allies that their support is yielding progress. New York Times
Poland, South Korea to Hold Joint Drills. Poland and South Korea’s defense ministers announced that their countries will hold joint military exercises in Poland soon to demonstrate the effectiveness of South Korean arms in the Polish armed forces. Poland’s Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak announced that the joint exercise, called Autumn Fire, will be held by the Polish military using recently purchased Korean military equipment. He added that Warsaw and Seoul are in talks to eventually have some of the equipment produced in Poland. Warsaw has procured tens of billions of dollars worth of weapons from Seoul — including K2 tanks, Thunder K9 howitzers, training and combat FA-50 fighter jets and K239 Chunmoo rocket artillery systems — to bolster its defenses amid the Ukraine war and replace military equipment sent to Ukraine. Associated Press
Russia to Block G20 Declaration if Views Ignored. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Friday that Russia will block the final declaration of this month’s G20 summit in India if it does not reflect Moscow’s position on Ukraine and other issues. Lavrov, who will attend the summit in lieu of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has an International Criminal Court arrest warrant against him. Lavrov’s comments signal that the G20 may have to issue a non-binding or partial communique. He added that another option is to issue a document focused on “specific decisions in the sphere of G20 competences” and to have “everyone say the rest on their own behalf.” Reuters
Putin to Meet Turkey’s Erdogan in Sochi. The Kremlin announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the Russian Black Sea resort of Sochi on Monday. Sources say their meeting will focus on Black Sea grain exports. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said he sent proposals to revive the Black Sea grain deal to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. A Russian diplomat said there were “no revelations” in the proposals, and Lavrov said earlier that Moscow saw no sign that it will receive the guarantees it is seeking in exchange for the resumption of the deal. Russia withdrew from the deal in July. Its demands to rejoin include better facilitation of its food and fertilizer exports and the reconnection of its main agricultural bank to the SWIFT international payment system. Reuters Politico
Asia and Oceania
U.S. Planning Drone Buildup to Counter China. The U.S. military’s Replicator initiative to field thousands of drones over the next two years is set to have a significant impact for possible conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Analysts say the program is likely to pressure China, in line with Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks’s remarks that Replicator will counter China’s advantage in military mass. She noted that the “attritable autonomous systems” fielded in the program will be cheaper and easily upgradable and will help deter aggression or boost U.S. military air capabilities in the event of conflict. The initiative draws from lessons learned from the heightened use of drones in the Ukraine war. Analysts said the program’s focus on low-cost replaceable drones aims to “put the burden of the costs back on China,” forcing Beijing to either ignore the drones or use more expensive systems to take them out. Experts added that procuring and deploying the drones is just one step, saying that organizational changes to squadrons and extensive autonomous system training are also necessary. South China Morning Post
China Has Four Months to Import Key Dutch Chip-Making Systems. Dutch technology giant ASML said that starting January 1, it will no longer be able to ship the Twinscan NXT:2000i, its most advanced immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography system, to Chinese chip foundries. ASML’s announcement came as new restrictions on the export of advanced lithography systems from the Netherlands came into effect on Friday. The rules require a license to export some DUV systems, which can produce chips at the 5-nanometer process or more advanced. ASML received approval from The Hague to continue shipments of the system to China through 2023. The Netherlands and Japan have worked with the U.S. to restrict China-bound exports of chip-making tools to target China’s semiconductor industry for national security reasons. The U.S., Japan and the Netherlands produced 85 percent of semiconductor equipment at Chinese foundries. South China Morning Post
U.S., Indonesia and Others Hold Joint Drills. The U.S, Indonesia and five other nations started the annual live-fire Super Garuda Shield military drills in East Java on Thursday. The U.S. and Indonesia started holding the drills in 2009, and Australia, Japan and Singapore joined last year. The UK and France joined this year with around 5,000 personnel. Thirteen other nations, including Germany, India, the Philippines, and South Korea, also sent observers to this year’s exercises. At least 2,100 U.S. and 1,900 Indonesian troops are participating and aim to enhance their interoperability capabilities. The drills come amid heightened tensions with China, especially over territorial disputes in the South China Sea. The commanding general of U.S. Army Pacific, General Charles Flynn, said the drills serve as a powerful demonstration of multilateral solidarity and support for a free and open Indo-Pacific. Associated Press
Middle East and Northern Africa
U.S.-Led Coalition Urges End to Eastern Syria Fighting. The U.S.-led coalition fighting Islamic State (IS) is calling for an end to fighting in eastern Syria between Kurdish-led fighters and Arab tribes. Clashes started on Sunday when the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces arrested a commander of the Deir al-Zor Council for complicity in crimes like drug trafficking and failing to counter IS. The commander’s arrest angered Arab tribes in the Deir al-Zor province, leading to violence that killed at least 40 fighters from both sides and 15 civilians, according to local sources. The U.S.-led coalition said the clashes are “distractions” from the fight against IS sleeper cells and risk a resurgence of the group. Associated Press Reuters
Sub Saharan Africa
Burkina Faso Head Discusses Potential Military Collaboration with Russia. Burkina Faso's interim president Ibrahim Traore met with a Russian delegation on Thursday to discuss potential military cooperation, according to the Burkinabe presidency. Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov reportedly led the visit, which was a follow-up to a meeting between Traore and Russian President Vladimir Putin at July’s Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg. The presidency said that the latest talks covered military collaboration “including the training of Burkinabe officer cadets and officers at all levels, including pilots in Russia" The presidency did not say whether Russian army trainers would be deployed to Burkina Faso, which has come under scrutiny for its security ties to Russia after it demanded French forces stationed in the country to withdraw. Reuters
Over 40 Killed in Eastern Congo’s Goma after Clampdown on Anti-UN Protests. The Congolese government said Wednesday that over 40 people were killed and 56 wounded in a military crackdown on anti-UN protests in the city of Goma in eastern Congo. After unverified footage of an attack on a policeman by civilians armed with sticks and stones spread on social media, soldiers forcibly broke up crowds of demonstrators protesting the UN peacekeeping mission MONUSCO and other foreign institutions. Officials said earlier that six protestors were killed when the army interfered, but the government later increased the death toll to 43, adding that 158 people were arrested. France 24 said an internal army document put the number of deaths at 48. The government said it opened a military investigation into the matter. MONUSCO expressed worries over the violence and encouraged “the Congolese authorities to conduct a prompt and independent investigation and called them to treat those detained humanely and to respect their rights." Reuters France 24 Deutsche Welle Associated Press
Cyber and Tech
Ukraine Reports Intensifying Cyber Espionage Attacks Coinciding with Counteroffensive. Gamaredon, a Russia-linked hacking group, is intensifying its cyberattacks on Ukrainian military and government organizations as Kyiv continues its counteroffensive operations. Ukraine’s national cybersecurity center (NCCC) reported Thursday that the group, under instructions from Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), is stepping up cyberespionage and data theft operations against Ukrainian military units and government components. The group masks its operations through malware that co-opts domain names from legitimate services such as Cloudflare, Telegram, and Telegraph rather than its own IP addresses. The NCCC reports that Ukraine is considering restrictions on the use of Telegram and Telegraph apps to better detect activity from threat actors like Gamaredon. The group’s phishing campaigns are distinctive in their use of what appear to be official reports or communications but actually deploy malware, including Pterodo, which is used for surveillance and data exfiltration. The NCCC said that the growing frequency of Gamaredon attacks “suggest an expansion in the hacker's operational capacity and resources. The alignment of their activities with critical military events amplifies the group’s potential impact.” The Record
Space Force Explores Creating Cyber Component With Cyber Command. The U.S. Space Force is exploring the possibility of creating an official cyber component with Cyber Command, following the example of the other military services. Lt. Gen. DeAnna Burt, the Space Force’s deputy chief of space operations for operations, cyber and nuclear, told an Air Force IT and cyber conference on Wednesday that “we are in process of working with Cyber Command on what does…the Space Force service component to Cyber Command look like.” Cyber Command has the authority for offensive cyber operations around the globe conducted by the joint Cyber Mission Force (CMF). The services, potentially including the Space Force, do not have teams to conduct offensive cyber operations outside of a Cyber Command contribution. The other services provide Cyber Command with a predetermined number of personnel and teams for the CMF, which conducts offensive and defensive cyber operations. Currently, the Force Headquarters-Cyber Air Force is the coordinating authority for planning and synchronizing cyber support and operations for Spacecom. As Space Force leader Gen. Chance Saltzman noted during his confirmation hearings, “any requirement to support the CMF…would require a commensurate increase to the Space Force manpower to support this new mission area.” DefenseScoop
UK Parliamentary Group Recommends AI Defensive Alliance Against Hostile Actors. A report from Parliament’s Science, Innovation, and Technology (SIT) committee recommends that Britain work with “like-minded countries” to form a defensive alliance against malicious uses of AI. Allied democracies, the committee said, should take steps “to ensure mutual protection against those actors, state and otherwise” who are hostile to their ideals and values and would use AI to achieve destructive goals. The parliamentary report cautions about AI’s potential for harm, including the generation of deepfakes to mislead the public, or its use in developing new biological and chemical weapons. The committee of MP’s will meet in Washington in September with U.S. regulators to be followed by meetings with European counterparts before it issues a second and final report by the end of the year. The report also advocates that Britain accelerate the introduction of new legislation to govern AI or risk falling behind the EU and the U.S. in establishing AI standards and safeguards. Regarding which countries should be asked to participate in the global AI summit hosted by the UK in November, the report recommended that the event include as wide a range of countries as possible, amid speculation that China will not be invited. The committee chair, Greg Clark, favors China’s participation, noting “it needs to be accompanied with a caveat that we don’t expect that some of the security aspects to be resolved at that level. Our recommendation would be that we need a more trusted forum for that.” Bloomberg The Guardian
North Korean Lazarus Subunit Linked to VMConnect Supply Chain Malware Campaign. North Korean state-sponsored hackers are behind the ongoing malware supply chain campaign called VMConnect that uploaded malicious packages to the popular PyPI (Python Package Index) repository. A report on Thursday from ReversingLabs, a software supply chain security company, attributes the campaign to Labyrinth Chollima, a subgroup of North Korea’s Lazarus hackers. VMConnect mimics open source Python tools to implant an unknown second-stage malware. The packages were uploaded at the beginning of August, with one targeting IT professionals seeking virtualization tools. ReversingLabs noted that the hackers are disguising their packages and making them appear trustworthy. A security researcher explained that "by waiting until the designated package is imported and its functions called by the compromised application, (the attackers) avoid one form of common, behavior based detection and raise the bar for would-be defenders." BleepingComputer The Hacker News
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