10:00 AM ET, Friday, October 27, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
THE TOP STORIES
U.S. Fighter Jets Strike Suspected Bases of Iran-Backed Groups in Syria. The Pentagon said two U.S. F-16 fighter jets struck two weapons and ammunition facilities in Syria believed to be used by Iranian-backed groups on Friday in retaliation for attacks on U.S. forces in the region since Hamas’s October 7 attacks on Israel. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the “precision self-defense strikes” were a response to mostly unsuccessful attacks on U.S. troops. President Joe Biden ordered the attacks after issuing a warning to Iran against targeting U.S. forces in the Middle East. The Pentagon said U.S. and coalition troops have been attacked at least 19 times by Iranian-backed forces in Iraq and Syria in the past week, injuring 21 U.S. service personnel. Reuters Bloomberg Wall Street Journal Washington Post
China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi Starts Washington Visit. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi arrived in Washington on Thursday for a long-anticipated visit to the U.S. Before meeting with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China and the U.S. need “in-depth and comprehensive” dialogue over their disagreements to reduce misunderstandings and stabilize ties. Blinken responded that he agrees. The main objective of Wang’s three-day visit is seen as preparing for an expected meeting between President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in San Francisco next month. Blinken and Wang are to meet again on Friday, and Wang is expected to meet with National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and to speak with Biden at the White House as well. Reuters South China Morning Post U.S. Department of State
U.S. Navy’s New ICBM Submarine $20 Billion Over Budget. A Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report released on Thursday suggested that the U.S. Navy’s plan to build a new class of 12 submarines carrying intercontinental ballistic missiles may cost at least 20 percent – or $20 billion – more than the Navy had projected. The CBO projected that the first sub in the class, the USS District of Columbia, will cost $17.5 billion, $1.7 billion more than the Navy had estimated. The CBO added that the cost of the program could even exceed these estimates because the submarines will be the largest and most complex the U.S. has ever built. The new class of submarines is being built by General Dynamics Corp. and HII. Bloomberg
Chinese Jet Fighter Flew Within 10 Feet of U.S. Bomber Over South China Sea. The U.S. military said on Thursday that a Chinese fighter jet came within 10 feet of a U.S. B-52 bomber over the South China Sea on Tuesday night. The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said the Chinese Shenyang J-11 fighter closed on the B-52 at an “uncontrolled excessive speed, flying below, in front of, and within 10 feet” of the U.S. plane, putting the aircraft in danger of collision. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning blamed the U.S. for the incident, saying American planes “traveled thousands of miles to China’s doorstep to flex muscle.” Associated Press CNN Washington Post
New House Speaker Johnson Says Funding for Ukraine, Israel Should be Separated. Newly elected U.S. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson said Thursday in an interview with Fox News that funding to assist Ukraine and Israel should be separated, signaling that he will not support President Joe Biden's $106 billion aid package for both nations. Johnson expressed worries about financing Kyiv, saying that Americans must understand “what the object is there, what is the end game.” He added that any funds for Israel should be paid for by budgetary cuts in other areas. Johnson spoke to Biden on Thursday and said he told White House officials that House Republicans agreed on the need to “bifurcate” the Ukraine and Israel issues. He also announced that House Republicans seek to secure a “standalone Israel funding measure” of more than $14 billion to finance air and missile defense support. Reuters Bloomberg
ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR
Hamas Says Ceasefire Needed to Release Hostages. Russia’s Kommersant newspaper reports that a Hamas official named Abu Hamid said that the militant group cannot release hostages until a ceasefire is reached. Abu, a reported member of the Hamas delegation visiting Moscow, said a ceasefire is needed to give the group time to “find” all captives taken by various Palestinian factions during the Hamas attacks. Abu reiterated Hamas’s claim that it intends to release all “civilian prisoners.” He also claimed that Israeli air strikes on Gaza have killed 50 hostages. Four hostages taken by Hamas have been released so far. Al Jazeera Reuters
Hamas Claims Responsibility for Tel Aviv Rocket Attack. Hamas’s military wing al-Qassam brigades said it launched two rocket barrages targeting the Tel Aviv area on Friday. The group said the attack was “in response to Zionist massacres against civilians,” referring to Israeli air strikes on Gaza following the Hamas attacks. Israel’s ambulance service and media reports say that the attack injured three people and damaged a building. Al Jazeera Times of Israel
West Bank Clashes Kill Four Palestinians. Palestinian news agency WAFA says that Israeli forces killed four Palestinians in raids in the occupied West Bank on Friday. Israel’s military said the latest fighting took place during West Bank arrest operations in the city of Jenin. Islamic Jihad and Hamas confirmed that they each lost a member in the clashes. WAFA says another Palestinian was killed in Jenin and another man was killed in the West Bank town of Qalqiya. Israel has stepped up operations against Islamist groups in the West Bank following the Hamas attacks. One Israeli soldier has been killed in fighting, and WAFA reports that 110 Palestinians have been killed with hundreds more arrested. Al Jazeera Reuters
Missile of Unidentified Origins Strikes Egyptian Resort Town on Israel Border. Projectiles reportedly caused explosions in two Egyptian Red Sea towns on Friday. Egypt’s army reported that an “unidentified drone” hit a medical facility in the town of Taba, injuring six people. Egyptian security sources said another projectile landed near an electricity plant for the town of Nuweiba. Both towns are popular tourist sites in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula near the Israeli border. No group has taken responsibility for the blasts. Israeli military spokesperson Daniel Hagari said Israel scrambled combat helicopters to deal with an “aerial threat” in the Red Sea region, adding that Israel believes the Egypt strikes “originated in this threat.” Experts say Hagari may have been referencing Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis, who regularly use drones. Recent incidents in Egypt have shown the risk of regional spillover from the Israel-Hamas conflict. Last weekend, fragments from a shell fired by an Israeli tank accidentally hit an Egyptian border post. On Wednesday, Hamas said it launched a missile at the Israeli Red Sea port of Eliat, adjacent to Taba across the Israel-Egypt border. Al Jazeera Reuters Times of Israel
U.S. Imposes New Hamas-Related Sanctions. The U.S. Treasury Department said Washington imposed a second round of sanctions against Hamas on Friday. The measures targeted assets in Hamas’s investment portfolio, including Sudan and Spain-based companies and Turkey-based shareholders of a company linked to Hamas. The sanctions also covered a Gaza-based entity that facilitates illicit Iranian funds to Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. The Treasury said it also imposed sanctions on a Jordanian national living in the Iranian capital Tehran who is accused of serving as a representative for Hamas in Iran. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Qods Force officials accused of training and supporting members of Hamas and other militant groups were also targeted, including an Iran-based commander of the IRGC Ground Force’s Saberin Special Forces Brigade, which the U.S. Treasury accused of training Hamas and Hezbollah fighters in Syria. Bloomberg Reuters U.S. Department of the Treasury
Iran Starts Two-Day Helicopter Drills in Central Region. Iranian state television reports that Iran’s ground forces launched two days of exercises focused on testing the flight readiness of over 200 helicopters on Friday. An Iranian military spokesperson said the drills, which had been planned earlier, are aimed at “confronting possible threats” and that they are being held in Nasr Abad in Iran’s central Isfahan province. Reuters
Influential Shi’ite Cleric in Iraq Calls for Closure of U.S. Embassy in Baghdad Over Israel Support. Iraq’s Shi’ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr is calling on the Iraqi government to close the U.S. embassy in Baghdad in response to “unfettered support” from the U.S. for Israel. He warned that if the embassy is not closed, “we will go for further actions which we will later announce.” Sadr has millions of Iraqi followers and has been able to organize mass gatherings. In June, his supporters called for mass demonstrations against Quran burnings in Sweden. Sadr’s followers eventually stormed and set fire to part of the Swedish embassy in Baghdad. Last year, Sadr commanded his supporters to storm Baghdad’s Green Zone and occupy parliament. Sadr both opposes Iranian influence on Iraq, differentiating him from other Shi’ite leaders, and also opposes U.S. influence on Iraq, calling for the withdrawal of remaining U.S. forces in the country. Reuters
India Boosting Border Drone Defenses After Hamas Attacks. The surprise attack by Hamas on Israel has reportedly prompted India to begin creating a drone surveillance system to prevent such an attack on its territory. Sources said defense officials met with six Indian vendors of surveillance and reconnaissance drones over the past week, adding that an order is expected to be announced as soon as next month. They said the military hopes to have a system in place along some parts of the border as early as May. The move to enhance border monitoring comes amid persistent tensions with China and Pakistan. Bloomberg
South Korea, U.S. Hold Drills to Simulate ‘Hamas-Style’ Attacks from North Korea. South Korean and American forces have been conducting live-fire drills this week to practice their response to potential “Hamas-style surprise artillery attacks” by North Korea. The exercises involve 5,400 South Korean and U.S. troops, 1,000 vehicles and air force assets, and 300 artillery systems. The South Korean Ground Operations Command said that the soldiers drilled strikes with the goal of removing “the origins of the enemy’s long-range artillery provocations at an early date.” Analysts believe that Pyongyang’s forward-deployed long-range artillery weapons are capable of firing about 16,000 rounds per hour. Pyongyang did not immediately respond to the drills, but generally considers all exercises and joint training to be a rehearsal of war. Associated Press
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
Russia to Face Long-Term Challenges from Avdiivka Failure. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on Thursday that Russia’s heavy losses around Avdiivka are likely to “undermine Russian offensive capabilities over the long term.” Ukrainian military spokesman Col. Oleksandr Shtupun said that Russia has suffered 5,000 personnel killed or wounded and 400 armored vehicle losses near Avdiivka and Marinka, southwest of Donetsk City, since October 10. The ISW said the recent equipment losses around Avdiivka are even more severe than those Russia sustained in the early weeks of the war, which “severely restricted Russia’s ability to conduct effective mechanized maneuver warfare” during its offensive early this year. The ISW said it remains unclear whether the prospect of more equipment losses will deter Russia from launching another series of assaults near Avdiivka. Kyiv Independent Institute for the Study of War
Ukraine Reports Russian Missile Attack in Kharkiv, Drone Attacks in Southern Ukraine. Ukrainian Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said a Russian missile hit a fire department building in the northern region of Kharkiv today, injuring at least eight. Elsewhere, a spokeswoman for Ukraine’s southern military command said five of six drones were destroyed in two waves of attacks Russia launched overnight in Mykolaiv and Kherson. The spokeswoman said one drone hit “an infrastructure object, and a fire broke out,” but that the damage was not critical. Reuters
Pro-Russian Ukrainian Politician Reportedly Shot and Seriously Wounded. Former Ukrainian lawmaker Oleg Tsaryov, a pro-Russian politician who was reportedly selected to lead a puppet administration in Kyiv after Russia’s takeover of Ukraine, has been shot and wounded. Vladimir Rogov, a senior Russian-installed official in southern Ukraine, said Tsaryov is in “intensive care” but did not say where the shooting took place. Tsaryov has dismissed reports ahead of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine that he had been lined up to head a Ukrainian puppet government for Russia, saying at the time that the prospect was “pretty funny” since he was “not important enough.” Tsaryov was a member of the Ukrainian parliament and then became speaker of the parliament of “Novorossiya,” which was created after Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine broke away in 2014. Reuters
Russia Executing its Own Forces for Failing to Follow Orders. The White House on Thursday said U.S. intelligence shows that Russia executes troops who do not follow orders and that commanders threaten squads with death if they flee from Ukraine’s artillery fire. John Kirby, White House National Security Council spokesman, said national security authorities believe this intelligence reflects low morale among Russian forces after 20 months of war on Ukraine. Kirby called executions “reprehensible” and “barbaric” and said that they are manifestations of “how poorly” the Kremlin’s military leadership “know they’re doing.” He also noted that many Russian soldiers are young, untrained, and improperly equipped. He did not offer any information on how many Russian soldiers have been executed for failing to follow orders or provide details about the alleged units threatened with execution. Britain's Defense Ministry said that the Russian military has deployed “barrier troops” that threaten to kill deserters, and it believed that the Wagner Group routinely executed those who retreated from enemy fire. Russia's defense ministry, the Kremlin, and the Russian embassy to the U.S. did not immediately comment on the reports. The intelligence report comes amid the Biden administration’s efforts to secure more funding and aid for Ukraine. Associated Press Reuters BBC
Russian Prison Populations Drop Amid Recruitment for Ukraine War. Russia has freed as many as 100,000 prison inmates to fight in Ukraine, a far greater number than previously estimated, according to government statistics and rights advocates. Russian Deputy Justice Minister Vsevolod Vukolov reported earlier this month that the Russian prison population has declined from an estimated 420,000 before the invasion of Ukraine began to below 266,000 today. Russian forces now rely heavily on former prisoners, promising pardons in return for their military service. Washington Post
Russia Expanding Military Production Capacity. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) reported on Thursday that Russia is increasing production of military hardware at factories across the country. RFE/RL said an analysis of satellite images of factories shows increased manufacture and repair of planes, helicopters, drones and guided munitions. RFE/RL also reported Russia has completed a new workshop at the Ural Aviation Plant. According to local reports, the facility is to be used for the development of aircraft engines. Also, a new factory for the production of drones has appeared north of Moscow. Kyiv Independent RadioSvoboda
China Skipping Talks on Ukraine Peace Plan. China is expected to skip this weekend’s summit in Malta on Ukraine’s peace formula, marking a disappointment in efforts to secure international support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s peace plan and push Beijing away from Moscow. Officials from more than 55 nations will meet from October 28th-29th to discuss Ukraine’s peace formula, which calls for the restoration of Kyiv’s territorial integrity, prosecution of those who have committed war crimes, and complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine. The Group of Seven (G7) countries, as well as India, South Africa, Qatar, and Turkey are expected to attend the meeting, and representatives from Brazil and Chile will attend remotely. In August, China sent delegates to an international peace formula gathering in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, prompting Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to call Beijing’s participation "a historic victory." However, Russia and China maintain close relations, as evidenced by Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to Beijing. Bloomberg Kyiv Independent Reuters
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
Tech Leaders Raise Alarm Over Artificial Intelligence. Several prominent tech leaders said at The Washington Post’s artificial intelligence (AI) summit on Thursday said that the executive order on artificial intelligence that President Joe Biden reportedly plans to issue next week should be seen only as a starting point and that far more will be needed to protect society from AI’s impacts. Alexandr Wang, CEO of Scale AI, which landed a $249 million contract last year to provide AI technologies to the Defense Department, warned of the danger of deploying immature AI systems on the battlefield. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer added that while the Biden administration is doing a lot on the regulatory side, “the only real answer is legislative.” Biden science advisor Arati Prabhaker concurred, saying Schumer “is completely correct.” Biden’s order is expected to ease immigration barriers for highly skilled workers and to require that advanced AI models undergo assessments before being used by federal workers. Washington Post
CISA Reports Decrease in Known Exploited Vulnerabilities in Federal Networks. CISA Executive Assistant Director for Cybersecurity Eric Goldstein said this week that there has been a significant drop in known exploited vulnerabilities (KEVs) on federal networks. Speaking at a House of Representatives hearing, Goldstein shared statistics on CISA’s KEV catalog, which it has been running for over two years and using as a repository for vulnerabilities actively exploited by threat actors. Vulnerabilities added to the catalog must be addressed by all federal civilian agencies within three weeks. Goldstein said that 7 million KEV findings have been remediated this year, and there has been a 72% decrease in the percentage of exposed KEVs for 45 or more days. He added that CISA saw a 79% reduction in the federal civilian agency attack surface from internet-accessible KEVs in fiscal year 2022 to 2023, despite an increase in KEV catalog entries in that period. He also said the average time to remediate KEVs is nine days faster than for non-KEVs, and 36 days faster for internet-facing KEVs. Besides the KEV catalog, Goldstein also outlined initiatives CISA wants to launch, including finding technology solutions for a threat intelligence platform to exchange threat information between trusted partners, as well as a cyber playbook to enhance federal civilian agency response and coordination in cyber events. The Record
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
Europe
U.S. Opening Arctic Diplomatic Station in Norway. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced on Friday that Washington is opening its northernmost diplomatic station in Tromsoe, Norway. Blinken said the station will allow the U.S. to maintain a "diplomatic footprint above the Arctic Circle.” Though the so-called “presence post” will not provide consular services, experts say it is a “symbolically” significant demonstration of the importance the U.S. places on the Arctic. The city of Tromsoe, which lies around 250 miles west of Russia, is the biggest settlement in Arctic Norway and is the seat of the Arctic Council. The U.S. operated a station in Tromsoe during the Cold War but closed it in 1994. Reuters
Asia and Oceania
Former Chinese Premier Li Keqiang Dies at 68. Former Chinese Premier Li Keqiang died at the age of 68 early on Friday, around seven months after retiring from a decade in office. State media reported that Li died of a heart attack. An official obituary published by state broadcaster CCTV called Li’s death a “huge loss” and described him as an “outstanding leader of party and state.” The obituary highlighted Li’s role in the Belt and Road Initiative, poverty relief, the response to Covid-19, and development of China’s internet industry. Li had supported a more open market economy and supply-side reform dubbed “Likonomoics” which was never fully implemented. Li had been sidelined in recent years as Chinese President Xi Jinping strengthened his hold on power and expanded state control. Al Jazeera BBC Reuters South China Morning Post Wall Street Journal
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