10:00 AM ET, Friday, October 20, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
THE TOP STORIES
Biden Makes Case For Increased U.S. Funding for Ukrainian and Israeli War Efforts. President Joe Biden made his case in a televised address last night for more U.S. financial support for Israel in its war with Hamas and for Ukraine in its war with Russia. He called such aid “vital for America’s national security.” Biden said that while Hamas and Russian President Vladimir Putin pose different threats, each wants to “annihilate a neighboring democracy.” A source familiar with the plan said Biden will request an additional $60 billion for the war effort in Ukraine and $14 billion for Israel. The request will also include $10 billion for humanitarian aid — including for Gaza — $14 billion for U.S. border security, and $7 billion for the Indo-Pacific region. After the speech, the Republican National Committee said Biden had not done enough to counter the Iranian threat, and called on him to enforce oil sanctions more “vigorously.” Reuters Bloomberg Washington Post
Rockets, Drones Hit Iraqi Bases Housing U.S. Forces. Drones and rockets targeted an Iraqi military base housing U.S. and other international forces on Thursday. Two security sources said multiple explosions were heard inside the Ain al-Asad air base in western Anbar province, adding that it was not yet clear whether the attack caused any casualties or damage. The Iraqi military said it sealed off the area around the base and began a search operation. Iraqi police added that rockets hit another military base housing U.S. forces near Baghdad’s international airport, but provided no details. A U.S. official speaking anonymously said two rockets were fired at U.S. forces at the airport. One was intercepted and the other hit an empty storage facility. There were no reported casualties. U.S. forces in Iraq were targeted by drones on Wednesday. A separate drone attack and missile attack also reportedly targeted bases with U.S. forces in Syria. The U.S. currently has 2,500 troops in Iraq and 900 in Syria to advise local forces on combating and containing the Islamic State. Reuters The Guardian
China Assessing How to Weather U.S. Sanctions in a War Over Taiwan. Chinese government-affiliated researchers studying the Western response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine say that if there were a war between China and the U.S. over Taiwan, Beijing would need to create a global “anti-sanctions corporate network” of companies, seize American assets within China’s borders, and issue gold-denominated bonds. Researchers also suggested Beijing exploit differences within the E.U. and between the U.S. and its allies. Some analysts argue that China should increase its economic ties with the U.S. and its allies now in order to make those countries more reluctant to impose future sanctions. According to a Reuters review of more than 200 Chinese-language policy papers and academic articles published since February 2022, Western sanctions against Russia have led hundreds of Chinese economists, financiers and analysts to study how China could mitigate extreme effects of sanctions targeting Beijing, such as the loss of U.S. dollars. Many researchers say that because China’s economy is much larger and more dependent on imports of advanced foreign technology and other commodities than Russia, Western sanctions would be far more destructive to China. Reuters
ISRAEL HAMAS WAR
Israeli authorities say at least 1,400 people were killed in the Hamas attacks in Israel. Palestinian officials say 3,785 people in Gaza have been killed in Israeli air strikes. U.S. officials say at least 32 U.S. nationals have been killed in the fighting, with 11 unaccounted for. An Israel Defense Forces spokesperson said Hamas is holding 203 hostages, but over 100 people remain unaccounted for. Al Jazeera Washington Post
‘Large Number’ of People Killed in Israeli Air Attack on Greek Orthodox Church. Gaza authorities said on Friday that an Israeli air attack killed and wounded a “large number” of displaced people sheltering in the compound of the Greek Orthodox Saint Porphyrius Church in Gaza City last night. The Gaza health ministry said at least 16 Christian Palestinians were among those killed. Witnesses said that the air raid appeared to be aimed at a target close to the church. The Israeli military said the strike targeted a Hamas control center and that the incident is being investigated. The military also said Hamas intentionally places its assets in civilian areas, using Gaza residents as “human shields.” Al Jazeera Washington PostReuters
U.N. Says Agreement Near on Moving Humanitarian Aid Through Rafah Crossing Into Gaza. Disagreements between Egypt and Israel over the arrangements are blocking humanitarian aid from moving into Gaza via the Rafah crossing. A U.N.-led agreement on Thursday appeared to have cleared the way for supply trucks to cross over from Egypt into Gaza on Friday, but diplomats familiar with back-channel talks said aid trucks are unlikely to move until Saturday at the earliest. The disagreements include how to impose a regular schedule of convoys, whether to allow fuel to be transported, and how to screen for weapons. U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres visited the Rafah crossing today and said talks are underway “with all the parties” to reach an agreement on opening the crossing. The U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said today it is encouraged by internal reports that “the different sides are nearing an agreement” and that the first delivery should take place within the next day or so. New York Times Financial Times
Israel Evacuating Northern City Near Lebanon Border. Israel said on Friday that it is evacuating over 20,000 people from Kiryat Shmona, one of the largest settlements in northern Israel near the border with Lebanon. The move comes amid constant border clashes between Israeli forces and Lebanon’s Hezbollah since the Hamas attacks in Israel. Israeli authorities already evacuated some areas near the border that they designated closed military zones, but the Kiryat Shmona evacuation will be the largest in the area. Evacuees will be housed in state-subsidized guesthouses, joining other residents from the area and settlements near Gaza. An Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson said the evacuations will “expand its (IDF’s) operational freedom) to counter Hezbollah. Clashes on the Lebanon-Israel border have been limited so far, but the fighting has raised concerns about an expansion of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Reuters Wall Street Journal
U.S., Saudi Defense Chiefs Discuss Israel-Hamas Conflict. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman talked by telephone on Thursday about the U.S.-Saudi security partnership and developments in the Middle East. The conversation took place after British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who stressed that the kingdom views the targeting of civilians in Gaza as a “heinous and brutal attack.” Austin also talked by telephone about the situation in the Middle East with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad and UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed. The calls came as the Pentagon said that the U.S. is seeing increasing drone attacks in Iraq and Syria and that a U.S. destroyer in the Red Sea intercepted cruise missiles and drones fired from Yemen north, potentially toward Israel. Bloomberg Reuters
Egypt Hosting Peace Summit on Israel-Hamas Conflict. Egypt is hosting an international peace summit in Cairo on Saturday focused on the Israel-Hamas conflict. The leaders of regional powers including Egypt, Bahrain and Kuwait will attend, as well as Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. The heads of Italy, Spain, Greece and Cyprus will also attend, as well as the foreign ministers of Germany, France, Japan, Britain and Norway. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is set to attend, along with top E.U. leaders. Reuters
China, Russia Aligned on Middle East Crisis. China’s Middle East envoy Zhai Jun said on Friday that the “fundamental reason” for the current Israel-Hamas conflict is that Palestinians’ rights have not been guaranteed. Meeting with his Russian counterpart Mikhail Bogdanov in Qatar, Zhai reaffirmed China’s alignment with Russia in efforts to de-escalate the Gaza crisis. Russia added that it is coordinating its Middle East policy with China. The Russian Foreign Ministry said that in the talks between Zhai and Bogdanov, there was confirmation of “close coordination” of efforts to bring about a political settlement of the Hamas-Israel conflict and other crises in the Middle East. U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns told Bloomberg TV on Thursday that the U.S. and China have different views of the Israel-Hamas war and called on Beijing to denounce Hamas. Bloomberg Reuters Reuters
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
Ukrainian Forces Reportedly Cross Dnipro River. Ukrainian troops reportedly crossed the Dnipro River in the southern Kherson region into Russian-occupied territory. The Institute for the Study of War reported the crossing, citing reports from Russian military bloggers and geo-located footage. Milbloggers claimed amphibious Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups crossed the Dnipro River on Wednesday and Thursday and took positions in the settlements of Krynky, Pishchanivka, and Poima. The Ukrainian General Staff said Russian airstrikes targeted the town of Pishchanivka, implying that Ukrainian forces were in the settlement on the east bank of the Dnipro River. Russian-backed officials said Ukrainian troops were pushed back to areas closer to the Dnipro River and Russia’s Defense Ministry maintains that Russian forces repelled “sabotage and reconnaissance” activity in the area. ISW reports that Ukraine’s ground operations in the area were larger-than-usual and that Ukrainian forces likely maintain a presence on the east bank of the Dnipro River and near the largely destroyed Antonivsky railway bridge. Kyiv Post Institute for the Study of War
Putin Visits Russia’s Southern Military Headquarters. Russian state media reports that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin visited the headquarters of Russia’s Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don on Friday. Putin discussed the Ukraine war with Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov at the headquarters, which is near the border with Ukraine. The Kremlin and Russia’s Defense Ministry did not provide further details. Bloomberg
Ukrainian Attacks Targeting Russian Helicopters Likely Impacting Southern Axis. The U.K. Ministry of Defense reports that Ukraine likely destroyed nine Russian military helicopters in its recent strikes on Russian military airfields in Berdyansk and Luhansk. The ministry said that the attack likely diminished Russia’s capabilities on the southern axis and could force the Russian military to relocate operating bases and command and control nodes in the area farther from the front lines. The ministry said that due to Russia’s poor fixed wing close air support, Russian defenses have become reliant on rotary wing support amid the Ukraine counteroffensive. Berdyansk was reportedly being used as a primary Forward Operating Base for the southern axis. The loss of helicopters at Berdyansk will likely impact Russia’s ability to defend and launch offensive actions in the area. With the current strain on Russian military production, it will likely be difficult to replace the helicopters in the short to medium term. Russian pilots and air frames will also likely face further pressure, having already suffered combat exhaustion and maintenance issues. U.K. Ministry of Defense X
Russia Calls for Regular Trilateral Security Talks with North Korea, China. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has proposed holding regular security talks between Russia, China and North Korea to counter what he called U.S.-led security threats. Lavrov proposed the idea when talking to reporters during a visit to Pyongyang that was likely focused on expanding defense ties. During his trip, Lavrov met his North Korean counterpart, Choe Sun Hui, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who reportedly pledged to carry out unspecified agreements he made with Russian President Vladimir Putin during his trip to Russia last month. Lavrov’s visit comes as the U.S. and its partners say there is evidence that North Korea is sending weapons to Russia for use in Ukraine in exchange for Russian weapons technologies. Associated Press Bloomberg Reuters
NATO Boosting Baltic Sea Patrols After Undersea Infrastructure Damaged. NATO is bolstering its patrols in the Baltic Sea after undersea infrastructure in the region was damaged. The alliance said on Thursday that boosted patrols will include more surveillance and reconnaissance flights with maritime patrol aircraft, NATO AWACS planes, and drones. NATO is also deploying a fleet of four minehunters to the area. The moves come after a Baltic Sea telecommunications cable between Sweden and Estonia and a Finnish-Estonian pipeline and cable were damaged earlier this month. Investigations into the incidents have yet to conclude whether the damage was accidental or deliberate and who may be responsible. Reuters NATO
US Says Moscow’s Detainment of Russian-American Journalist is Harassment. The U.S. State Department said on Thursday that the reported detention of Russian-American journalist Alsu Kurmasheva by Russian authorities on espionage charges appeared to be another case of Russia harassing U.S. citizens. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied this assertion, saying that there is “no campaign to persecute U.S. citizens.” Meanwhile, Russia extended the detention of Kurmasheva, who is employed at RFE/RL's Tatar-Bashkir Service, by 72 hours on Friday. Reuters Al Jazeera
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
Hamas News Site Operations Reveal Multiple Supporting Connections in Region. An Android app providing updates on Hamas military wing activities has been assessed as having links to a cyberespionage group affiliated with Hamas. The app was made available on a Telegram channel associated with a Hamas brigade days after the October 7 attack and bridged to a news site that has provided intermittent coverage of the fighting. Reasons for the sporadic appearance of the site are unknown but could be caused by platform providers’ reluctance to work with the brigade. The news site organizers have moved its online presence several times between different platforms. Recorded Future analysis of code shared by several domains indicates linkages to TAG-63, one of the most enduring Arabic cyber operations groups. Recorded Future findings suggest that Hamas may be working with groups or individuals outside Gaza, including the possibility of an Iran collaboration, to sustain the news site online. CyberScoop Recorded Future
IBM ‘Neural’ Prototype Chip Anticipates New AI Possibilities, Military Applications. IBM today revealed a prototype microchip design that could enable device operations without reliance on the cloud or the Internet. The new chip, dubbed NorthPole by IBM, loosely follows the workings of the human brain in that it combines memory with processing circuits, like brain synapses that store and process information based on links to other neurons. Traditional chips separate memory from processing circuits. According to IBM researchers, NorthPole features a “neural inference architecture that blurs this boundary by eliminating off-chip memory, intertwining compute with memory on-chip, and appearing externally as an active memory.” This combination potentially could open a path for a different sort of AI that is not dependent on cloud and data repositories like those operated by Amazon and Google. IBM has been working on neuromorphic chips for more than ten years, with funding from DARPA’s SyNAPSE program. The Pentagon’s interest is easy to understand, as network-independent chips could enhance the way various military systems, including drones and infantry communications devices, perceive and interpret the world around them. They could process more types of data, including audio, optical, infrared, and sonar, and lead to new sensor capabilities such as “micro power impulse radar.” DefenseOne
Iran-Linked Hackers Hid in Middle East Government Systems for 8 Months. Systems of an unidentified Middle East government were infiltrated by Iran-linked hackers who remained in place for eight months as they extracted files and emails. The Symantec cybersecurity firm identified the intruders as Crambus, also known as APT34 and MuddyWater. Crambus previously had been tracked in a number of Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, along with the U.S. and Turkey. A Symantec intelligence analyst said the latest breach employed several new tools, including three forms of malware. The hackers installed email monitoring tools In addition to stealing data. Twelve computers were confirmed as having been compromised, but researchers found evidence of backdoors and keyloggers on dozens more devices. Symantec staff described Crambus as specializing in “long-running intrusions for intelligence gathering and spying purposes.” The Record
International Criminal Court Says September Cyberattack was Spying. The International Criminal Court at The Hague said on Friday that a cyberattack it suffered in September was attempted espionage. The Court said it has not been able to determine the source of the attack, but that the evidence suggests a “sophisticated attack” and a “serious attempt to undermine the Court’s mandate.” Court prosecutors currently are conducting 17 investigations into alleged atrocities. Reuters
EU Gives Meta, TikTok One-Week Deadline To Detail Content Moderation Steps. The European Commission has given Meta and TikTok a one-week deadline to provide details of steps they have taken to control violent content and hate speech in the wake of rampant online disinformation following Hamas’ assault on Israel. In the event of unsatisfactory responses from the companies, the Commission could open an investigation. The Commission specifically expects responses on crisis content by October 25 and on election integrity protection by November 8. Reuters
Joint U.S.-European Operation Shuts Down Ragnar Locker Ransomware Site. The FBI, Europol, and several national European agencies reportedly collaborated on a takedown of the Ragnar Locker ransomware leak site. Details were sparse — a Europol spokesperson explained that “a number of actions are still ongoing.” A message on the Ragner Locker website reads, “this service has been seized as part of a coordinated international law enforcement action against the RagnarLocker group.” If confirmed, the seizure of the ransomware site would be the latest in a string of ransomware gang takedowns this year. According to the FBI, Ragnar Locker was responsible for attacks on at least 52 critical infrastructure entities, including manufacturing, energy, financial services, government, and information technology sectors. Emsisoft ransomware expert Brett Callow thought the takedown would not have a significant impact on ransomware operations, but said “it’s nonetheless another win for the good guys.” BleepingComputer TheRecord CyberScoop
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
Private Travis King Charged with Desertion over Bolt into North Korea. The U.S. Army has reportedly charged Private Travis King, who crossed into North Korea in July with several crimes including desertion, assault against other troops, and solicitation of child pornography. The Army’s case includes eight different charges under the Uniform Code of Military Justice. King was released by North Korea in late September, and neither he nor the Army have provided many details about his treatment in the country. The Army has not yet responded to a request for comment on the matter. New York Times Reuters CBS CNN Associated Press
Australia Permits Chinese Government to Maintain Lease on Strategic Port. The Australian government said on Friday that it believes it is “not necessary” to cancel a 99-year lease held by Chinese company Landbridge on the strategic northern port of Darwin. A security review of the lease by Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s office found no issues, concluding that the current regulatory system for critical infrastructure manages risks with the lease. The move comes as Albanese seeks to improve relations with China while continuing to expand military ties with the U.S. A cancellation of the lease would have likely impacted Australian efforts to thaw ties with Beijing, which has recently removed some trade barriers on Australian goods and released an Australian journalist who has been detained in China for over three years. Albanese is also set to visit China later this year. Critics have said the lease poses a security risk since a company like Landbridge could be forced to act in the interests of the Chinese government. Darwin port is also in a strategic location near key military sites that would be crucial in a regional conflict. The U.S. has expressed concern about the lease, but has recently played down worries, saying that it is up to Australia to make its own national security decisions. ABC Al Jazeera Reuters Wall Street Journal
U.S. Urges Afghanistan's Neighbors to Accept Afghan Refugees. The U.S. State Department on Thursday “strongly” encouraged Afghanistan’s neighbors, including Pakistan, to permit Afghans in need of protection to enter their countries and receive humanitarian assistance. The appeal came after Pakistan set a November 1st deadline for all illegal immigrants, including hundreds of thousands of Afghans awaiting special U.S. visas or resettlement, to leave the country or face expulsion. Pakistan said there are around 4.4 million Afghans in its territory, with an estimated 1.73 million of them without legal documents. More than 20,000 of the Afghans in Pakistan fled the Taliban takeover in 2021. Taliban rulers have said that Pakistan’s threat of deportation was “unacceptable.” Reuters
Canada Withdraws 41 Diplomats from India. Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly confirmed on Thursday that Ottawa withdrew 41 diplomats from India, the latest development in the dispute over the killing of a Sikh separatist leader on Canadian soil. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused Indian government agents of potentially being behind the killing, which India denies. As part of its response, India last month asked Canada to reduce its diplomatic presence. The Financial Times reported earlier this month that India asked Canada to withdraw 41 of its 62 diplomats from the country by October 10. Joly said India threatened to unilaterally revoke the diplomats’ official status unless they left by Friday, adding that the move was unreasonable and unprecedented. She also said Canada will not retaliate. Canadian authorities later said they will have to suspend some in-person operations at consulates in India and warned of visa processing delays due to the staff withdrawal. BBC CNN Reuters Wall Street Journal
U.S. Senators Readying Bill to Support Iran Oil Sanctions Enforcement. A bipartisan group of senators is preparing legislation aimed at strengthening enforcement of U.S. oil sanctions on Iran. Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA) is leading the effort, which is being co-led by Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), to make a $150 million Iranian sanctions enforcement fund for the Department of Homeland Security Investigation (HSI) office. The fund will prioritize Iranian petroleum sanctions. The bill comes after recent seizures of some Iranian oil cargo, which often comes with high upfront costs. Under current law, 75% of funds from US oil seizures go to the U.S. Victims of State Sponsored Terrorism Fund. The remaining 25% would go to the enforcement fund, which will be called at $500 million. Additional funds will go to the national debt. The effort also comes in the wake of the attacks in Israel by Hamas, which is backed by Tehran. Reuters
Niger's Junta Says Thwarts Attempted Escape of Deposed President Bazoum. Niger’s ruling junta said on Thursday that it had prevented an attempted escape by ousted President Mohamed Bazoum, who has been under house arrest since the military coup in mid-July. Junta officials said that Bazoum and his family sought to escape into Nigeria in a helicopter with the aid of accomplices in the security forces. A military junta spokesperson said that the “strong” response from defense forces hindered the former president’s plan, which would “destabilize” the country. Reuters was unable to verify the report or contact Bazoum, whose current location is not known. His family and party members say he is imprisoned without access to electricity, running water, or fresh supplies, despite international calls for his release. Reuters Associated Press
U.S. Official Says Three Americans Still Wrongfully Detained in Venezuela. Brian A. Nichols, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs, said on Thursday that three American citizens are still wrongfully detained in Venezuela. Nichols’s confirmation on the figure comes after Venezuelan authorities released five prisoners, including opposition figures, following an agreement between Venezuela’s government and opposition on holding an internationally monitored presidential election in 2024. The U.S. moved to ease sanctions on Venezuela’s oil and gas sector in response to the electoral deal, but has called on Venezuela’s government to lift bans on political opposition candidates and release wrongfully detained Americans in Venezuela. Reuters
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