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10:00 AM ET, Friday, October 13, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

ISRAEL HAMAS WAR

Israel Confirms Hamas Holding 97 Hostages, Hamas Says 13 Captives Killed in Israeli Airstrikes.  Israel’s military said on Thursday that it confirmed Hamas has taken at least 97 people hostage.  The military did not specify if the 97 or all Israeli or include foreigners, or if they are all alive.  Analysts say Hamas may have taken corpses back to Gaza to make Israel believe it took more people hostage.  The military has previously said an estimated 150 Israeli civilians and security force members may have been taken hostage by Hamas.  Hamas’s armed wing Al Qassam Brigades claimed on Friday that Israeli air strikes on Gaza killed 13 hostages, including foreigners, in the last 24 hours.  It said six of the hostages were killed in two separate places in the Northern district, while seven of the captives were killed in three locations in the Gaza district.  Israel’s military said the claims were “lies of Hamas.”  Bloomberg South China Morning Post Reuters

Israel Tells Civilians to Vacate Gaza City.  The Israeli military on Friday ordered all civilians of Gaza City, more than 1 million people, to leave and relocate south within 24 hours as it gathers about 300,000 military personnel and tanks around the Gaza Strip in preparation for an anticipated ground invasion. Israel’s military said it would operate "significantly" in Gaza City, and that civilians could return when another announcement was made. U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric said the UN feared the humanitarian consequences of a ground incursion and appealed for “any such order … to be rescinded avoiding what could transform what is already a tragedy into a calamitous situation.”  Aid workers and civilians have expressed panic at the order.  A spokesperson for the Palestinian Red Crescent in Gaza City, Nebal Farsakh, said it was next to impossible to move 1.1 million people safely, saying “the only concern now is just if you make it, if you’re going to live.”  White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby echoed that moving such a large civilian population is a “tall order,” though Washington understands that Israel is seeking to “isolate” civilians from Hamas, “which is their real target.”  He reiterated that the U.S. is working with Israel and Egypt to try and get safe passage for civilians in Gaza out of the territory.  Hamas has called on residents of northern Gaza to “remain steadfast in your homes” to counter Israel’s “disgusting psychological war.”  Reuters Associated Press Bloomberg  

Detailed Maps and Tactical Guides Found at Attack Sites Show Scale of Hamas Planning for Assault.  Documents recovered from the sites of Hamas attacks include detailed maps of the military installations and towns targeted and tactical guides identifying vulnerable spots on Israeli armored vehicles. Israeli officials said they are examining the trove of documents found by soldiers, emergency personnel and civilians. The documents indicate that Hamas planned to attack civilian population centers and take hostages, and they are evidence of Hamas’ intelligence capability and the high degree of planning for the attack. Former Israeli military intelligence officer Michael Milshtein, who now heads up the Palestinian Studies Forum at Tel Aviv University, said Hamas has engaged in “nothing close to this level of planning” previously. Hamas military spokesman Abu Obaida said planning for the assault began in 2021 and that the result was “more than we had planned.”  Wall Street Journal

Human Rights Watch Says Israel Has Used White Phosphorus in Gaza, Lebanon.  Human Rights Watch accused Israel on Thursday of using white phosphorus ammunition in Gaza and Lebanon. The organization says white phosphorus poses risk of serious and long-term injury to civilians. The Israeli military said it is not aware of the use of such weapons in Gaza but did not comment on whether they have been employed in Lebanon. Human Rights Watch said it had verified videos taken in Lebanon on Tuesday and Gaza on Wednesday showing “multiple airbursts of artillery-fired” white phosphorus. The organization published links to two videos it said show white phosphorus projectiles being used in Lebanon but did not provide video from Gaza. White phosphorus is not banned under international conventions, but its use against targets located among civilians is prohibited. Israel did not sign Protocol III of the Convention of Use of Certain Conventional Weapons, which prohibits such use.  Reuters Washington Post

U.S. Intelligence: Wider Hezbollah-Israel Conflict Unlikely.  A top secret U.S. intelligence document prepared in February concluded that a massive attack by Hezbollah on Israel is unlikely. According to the analysis by the intelligence directorate for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Israel and Hezbollah had settled into a posture of “mutual deterrence” since the October 2022 agreement in which Israel and Lebanon settled a dispute over their maritime borders.  The document said Israel and Hezbollah remain “within their historical patterns of engagement,” avoiding casualties and responding to provocations proportionally.  Despite this, analysts say there will still be clashes along the Israel-Lebanon border as Hezbollah “tries to remind that they are there.”  Hezbollah officials also continue provocative rhetoric, with Hezbollah official Hashem Safieddine saying the group is “not neutral” in the battle between Hamas and Israel and Hezbollah deputy chief Naim Qassem adding on Friday that the group will not be persuaded by calls to not join the conflict and is “fully ready” to contribute to the fighting.  Washington Post Reuters Bloomberg

Iran's Foreign Minister Meets Hezbollah Leader in Lebanon on Israel-Hamas War.  Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian discussed the Hamas-Israeli war with Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Foreign Minister Abdallah Bouhabiv in Beirut on Friday.  Amirabdollahian told reporters that Israel was committing "war crimes" in Gaza.  He also said Iran has asked Egypt, the U.N. and aid groups to allow Tehran to provide humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians.  Reuters Bloomberg

Austin Visiting Israel Today.  Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin travels to Israel today to meet with Israeli leaders and reinforce U.S. commitment in the wake of the Hamas attacks. Austin is expected to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and members of the war cabinet to discuss Israel’s military planning and security needs. The visit follows days of coordination between the U.S. and Israel following the attack and comes a day after a visit by Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Meanwhile, the White House announced that the U.S. is set to begin evacuating Americans from Israel as the Israeli Defense Force prepares to take further action against Hamas fighters in Gaza. The White House said that the death toll from the Hamas attack now includes at least 27 Americans, and that 14 others are missing.  U.S. Department of Defense Times of Israel

North Korea Denies Hamas Using its Weapons.  North Korea on Friday denied that Hamas used North Korean weapons in its attack on Israel.  Experts said photos of attacking Hamas militants showed them possibly using North Korean arms, including F-7 rocket-propelled grenades.  The F-7 and some North Korean Bulsae-2 anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) were seen in use by Hamas in 2021 fighting as well.  Experts said the weapons could be newly delivered or from previous shipments as far back as 2009.  U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said on Thursday that he could not confirm reports about where Hamas acquired its weapons from.  North Korean state media said the claim that Hamas used North Korean weapons is “a groundless and false rumor” that is meant to “shift the blame for the conflict from the U.S. “hegemonic policy” to a “third country.”  North Korean state media earlier this week blamed Israel for the recent violence.  Reuters 

U.S. Police Bolster Security Ahead of Anticipated Protests.  U.S. law enforcement agencies have bolstered security measures to protect Jewish and Muslim populations ahead of expected, global pro-Palestine protests on Friday, though agencies have told the public to continue their normal routines.  Police in New York, Los Angeles, and Washington said they would strengthen patrols, particularly close to synagogues and Jewish community centers.  Officials have maintained, however, that they are not aware of any specific credible threats.  NYPD Chief of Patrol John Chell said that the New York National Guard has been directed to patrol key transportation centers, and that the city “will not tolerate any hate, any acts of disorder.” The FBI has said they are also active and alert and called on the public to stay vigilant.  Former Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal urged the Muslim world to come out in protest in support of Palestinians on Friday. Reuters NBC News

Expert Perspective: History Shows Surprise Attacks Almost Always Backfire.  Former CIA Director and Cipher Brief Expert Gen. David Petraeus (Ret.) and author Andrew Roberts say history shows that surprise attacks almost always backfire.  In an analysis piece in today’s Wall Street Journal, Petraeus and Roberts write that nations subjected to such attacks tend to become more resolute and united against the enemy, and that Hamas’s recent attack on Israel fits this pattern. The two say Israel’s response should be as devastating as that of the U.S. in response to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor and the 9/11 attacks. The authors also say that Hamas’s low-tech and varied methods of attack should serve as a warning to the U.S. and others that warfare is always evolving in unpredictable ways.  Wall Street Journal

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine Continues Defense of Avdiivka Amid Heavy Fighting.  Russia continued its assault against the eastern Ukrainian town of Avdiivka, marking the fourth day of intense fighting around the settlement in the biggest concentrated Russian offensive in months.  Ukrainian troops maintain they are holding their ground against the near constant attacks from Russian troops in the area.  Russia has mostly focused on countering Ukraine’s counteroffensive, but Kyiv says Russian forces have massed troops and deployed heavy equipment to Avdiivka with the aim of encircling and capturing the town.  Avdiivka has a large coking plant and is a symbol of resistance since Ukraine’s continued control of the settlement has denied Russia taking full control of the Donetsk region.  Russia’s Defense Ministry said on Thursday that its forces damaged Ukrainian troops in the area but gave little details.  The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces said it repelled over 20 Russian attacks around Avdiivka in the last 24 hours.  The Institute for the Study of War said that as of Thursday, Russian troops have failed to secure any major breakthroughs near Avdiivka, were unlikely to cut off Ukrainian forces in the town any time soon, and lost at least a battalion tactical group’s worth of armored vehicles in the area.  Reuters The Guardian

Ukraine Says Russian Air Strike Kill Two.  Ukrainian officials say Russian air strikes killed at least two people and wounded 15 others on Friday.  A missile strike on the city of Pokrovsk in the eastern Donetsk region killed one person and injured 13 others, while a drone strike in the town of Beryslav in the southern Kherson region killed another person.  Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian presidential office, said such attacks constitute a “deliberate hunt for civilians.”  Reuters

France Investigating Suspected Poisoning of Russian Journalist.  French authorities are investigating a suspected poisoning of Russian journalist Marina Osyannikova.  The Paris prosecutor’s office said Ovsyannikova called emergency services and was hospitalized after falling ill as she left her Paris apartment.  Ovsyannikova fled Russia after denouncing Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine on live TV in March 2022.  She escaped to France in July 2022 after staging a protest near the Kremlin in July 2022.  A Moscow court has since sentenced her to 8 ½ years in prison in absentia for spreading false information about the Russian military.  Russia has intensified its crackdown on dissent following its invasion of Ukraine.  Associated Press

CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Major Manufacturing Firm Suffers Lingering Disruptions Following Cyberattack.  A major U.S. building materials manufacturer has joined other manufacturing facilities around the world to be targeted in recent weeks by disruptive cyberattacks.  Simpson Manufacturing Company informed the Securities and Exchange Commission Tuesday that its IT infrastructure was hit by a malicious attack that has caused continuing disruption to the firm’s operations.  Simpson produces critical construction items such as structural connectors and anchors and is the third significant manufacturer to suffer cyber incidents, joining Volex, a UK-based producer of power products for data centers, and Ireland-based Johnson Controls, a building automation conglomerate.  According to a Simpson spokesperson, “the investigation to assess the nature and scope of the incident remains ongoing and is in its early stages.”  The Johnson Controls disruption alarmed federal law enforcement agencies because of the possibility it may have “compromised sensitive physical security information such as Department of Homeland Security floor plans.”  The Record

Japan, U.S., EU Host Cybersecurity Exercise with ASEAN Nations, India, Taiwan.  A week-long cybersecurity exercise is bringing experts from Japan, the U.S. and the EU together with counterparts from various ASEAN nations, India, Bangladesh, and Taiwan.  The event taking place in Tokyo was motivated by the global surge in cyberattacks on infrastructure, according to Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI).  The goal of participating governments is to prevent cyberattacks from spreading through global supply chains by bolstering defenses.  One of the exercise events in which participants responded to a simulated attack on the control system of a robot arms factory was open to the public.  Almost 90 percent of 300 Japanese oil refiners, manufacturers, and other sectors have experienced cyberattack disruptions in the past year.  Nikkei Asia

Forbes Profiles 10 Cybersecurity Threats, Responses That Will Dominate 2024.  Forbes opens a forecast of 2024 cyber threats with this sobering calculation of their likely impact on the global economy:  “By the end of the coming year, the cost of cyberattacks…is predicted to top $10.5 trillion.”  One common element in all 10 trends profiled is AI, which is projected to “have a transformative impact on both attack and defense.”  Author Bernard Marr, a writer and speaker on the intersection between business and technology, sketches what he calls the cybersecurity trends that should have “everyone on high alert.”  Marr notes early on that generative AI will be prominent on both sides of the threat equation – “we will continue to see more sophisticated and smart AI-powered attacks,” ranging from “deepfake social engineering attempts to automated malware that intelligently adapts” to evade detection.  By the same token, AI will help “detect, evade or neutralize threats thanks to real-time anomaly detection, smart authentication and automated incident response.”  Marr leads off his article with what he calls the “cyber security skills crunch,” a professional workforce shortage that will persist throughout 2024 following the trend of the last two years.  Social engineering attacks through phishing campaigns will grow more sophisticated, placing a premium on “organization-wide awareness and education.”  The vulnerability of the Internet-of-Things (IoT) is highlighted, with the multiplication of devices interacting with each other and accessing the Internet leading to “more potential ‘ins’ for cyber attackers.”  On the response side, Marr stresses cyber resilience as the gold of the coming realm, noting that even the best cyber security is never 100 percent.  Therefore, new emphasis will be placed on measures “designed to ensure continuity of operations even in the wake of a successful breach.”  Agile recovery “while minimizing data loss and downtime will be a strategic priority in 2024.”  Forbes

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

U.S. Accepts China’s Invitation to Take Part in Defense Forum.  The U.S. has accepted China’s invitation to attend a security forum in Beijing at the end of this month. The Defense Department said the U.S. will participate in the Beijing Xiangshan Forum “at a level consistent with past precedent.” The Pentagon did not say which officials would attend. Beijing’s invitation is seen as another sign of more normalized relations between the two countries since China froze high-level military talks with the U.S. in August 2022 following then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.  Bloomberg

Xi Jinping to Host Chilean President Gabriel Boric for Talks in Beijing.  Chilean President Gabriel Boric is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Sunday. Boric is expected to enhance Chilean cooperation with Chinese provincial and city governments, and he is slated to deliver a lecture at Sichuan University. Francisco Urdinez, an expert on Sino-Chilean relations at the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, said Boric is particularly interested in attracting investment in renewable energy. He said China “is a world leader” in this sector, and Chile has almost half the world’s known reserves of lithium, critical to the production of batteries for electric vehicles. Boric also is under pressure to address human rights abuses against China’s Uighur minority.  South China Morning Post

U.K. Banks Assessing China Risks Following Russia Sanctions.  The UK banking industry is assessing risks from any potential escalation in Western sanctions against China.  Bankers say they have shared their “scenario planning” with the British and U.S. governments, highlighting China exposure and lessons learned from impacts of other sanctions frameworks, including those against Russia.  Industry sources say they do not expect any imminent changes on sanctions on Beijing, but banks are on high alert and drawing up contingency plans after many were caught off guard by the speed and breadth of restrictions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.  Reuters

North Korea Condemns U.S. Carrier's Arrival in Busan, Says Nuclear Conflict Closer.  North Korea on Friday condemned the arrival of the nuclear-powered U.S. aircraft carrier Ronald Regan to Busan, South Korea, calling the visit a provocation that could usher in "irrevocable, catastrophic circumstances.”  The Ronald Reagan arrived on Thursday for a five-day visit in a show of strength to deter Pyongyang.  North Korea's KCNA state media agency said the aircraft carrier's visit showed that Washington’s plot for a nuclear assault on North Korea had reached "the most serious phase,” and that "the outbreak of a nuclear war” is closer than ever.  This year, the American and South Korean militaries have stepped up their joint exercises, using submarines, U.S. aircraft carriers, and advanced bombers to drill responses to developing North Korean threats.  KCNA said Pyongyang would do what it must to "deter and repel U.S. and its stooges' frantic moves to ignite a nuclear war,” and would first strike “the bases of evil in the Korean peninsula.”  The Japanese foreign ministry said diplomats from Japan, South Korea, and the U.S. will meet in Indonesia on Tuesday to discuss North Korea. Reuters Associated Press

Italy to Postpone Next Month’s Africa Summit due to War in Israel.  Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will postpone the Italy-Africa intergovernmental summit until January of 2024 due to security concerns brought about by the war between Israel and Hamas. The summit, which was planned as part of efforts to cooperate on issues such as energy and migration, was scheduled for early November in Rome.  Italy will reportedly use the conference to propose the “Mattei plan” for Africa, a plan focused on energy and migration and named after the founder of Italian energy company Eni SpA. The announcement comes ahead of Meloni’s planned trip to Mozambique and the Republic of Congo later this week, where she will be joined by Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi, who said recently that the war in the Middle East complicates Italian efforts to diversify energy supplies. Bloomberg

Menendez Accused of Acting as Unregistered Foreign Agent of Egypt.  Federal prosecutors charged Senator Bob Menendez of conspiring to act as an agent of the Egyptian government, including on behalf of Egyptian military and intelligence officials.  A revised indictment accuses Menendez of violating the Foreign Agents Registration Act, which requires people to register with the U.S. government if they act as an “agent of a foreign principal.”  As a member of Congress, Menendez was prohibited from becoming a foreign agent.  The new charge adds to bribery charges against Menendez and his wife, who are accused of accepting cash, gold bars and a luxury car from businessmen seeking his help to influence U.S. foreign policy in their favor.  Menendez dismissed the claims, saying they counter his “long record of standing up for human rights and democracy in Egypt and in challenging leaders of that country.”  He added that he has only ever been loyal to the U.S.  Some lawmakers have called on Menendez to resign over the charges.  Bloomberg Associated Press

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