10:00 AM ET, Friday, November 3, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
THE TOP STORIES
Russia’s Wagner Group Plans to Send Air Defenses to Hezbollah, U.S. Says. U.S. officials say intelligence indicates that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has tasked the Russian paramilitary organization Wagner Group with providing the Russian A-22 surface-to-air anti aircraft missile system to Hezbollah. White House National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said the information “is concerning.” It is not clear how much influence Moscow had over the decision, but Watson noted Russia’s refusal to condemn the Hamas attack on Israel and its “atrocities in Ukraine.” The Russian Embassy did not respond to a request for comment about the potential weapons transfer. The intelligence comes amid concern that Hezbollah may launch an attack on Israel. Officials plan to focus on a speech expected to be delivered today by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, his first public address since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7. Wall Street Journal CNN
House Passes $14.3 Billion Israel Funding Bill. The U.S. House of Representatives voted 226-196 on Thursday to approve a $14.5 billion emergency military aid package for Israel, with the spending to be offset by a cut in funding for the Internal Revenue Service. Twelve Democrats joined all but two Republicans in supporting the measure, which separates assistance to Israel from the rest of President Joe Biden’s $106 billion foreign aid bill, which also includes funding for Ukraine, Taiwan, and U.S. border security. Biden has said he would veto such a measure, and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) called it a “stunningly unserious” bill that has no chance of passing the Senate. Biden officials and immigration policy advocates say the administration may need to make compromises on asylum policy changes to get Biden’s foreign aid bill passed. Associated Press CNN New York Times Politico
Senators Seek Work-Around for Tuberville’s Holds on Military Promotions. Senate Democrats are seeking a way to work around Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s (R-AR) holds on senior military promotions. Tuberville has held up the promotions since February in protest of the Pentagon’s policy of offering time off and travel reimbursement to service members seeking abortions or fertility care. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said Wednesday that he would seek a temporary change in Senate rules to allow for almost all of those up for promotion to be voted on as a single bloc. And yesterday, the Senate confirmed President Joe Biden’s nominations for top officers in the Navy, Air Force and Marine Corps. The Senate voted 95-1 to approve both Adm. Lisa Franchetti as chief of naval operations and Gen. David Allvin as Air Force chief of staff. The Senate then voted 86-0 to promote Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Christopher Mahoney to general and confirm him as the Marines’ assistant commandant. New York Times
Japan PM Kishida Arrives in the Philippines. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishidaarrived in Manila on Friday to meet with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Marcos’ office said the two will discuss tensions in the South China Sea, trade and investment, and Japan’s development assistance. Kishida’s visit comes after recent confrontations between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea and between Japanese and Chinese vessels in the East China Sea. Ahead of Kishida’s arrival, Japan’s defense ministry announced the delivery of the first air surveillance radar system to the Philippine military under a 2020 contract between the Philippine defense department and Mitsubishi Electric Corp. Marcos and Kishida agreed in February to military cooperation on disaster relief, which could lead to a troop pact. Reuters Bloomberg
Biden Hosting Americas Summit. President Joe Biden is hosting leaders from across the Americas in Washington on Friday for the first Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity Leaders’ Summit. White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Thursday that the summit will be a “once in a generation opportunity” to shift more global supply chains to the Western Hemisphere and bolster the region’s economic development. He said it will also provide the chance to address the region’s “shared migration challenge.” The summit comes as the U.S. seeks to diversify supply chains as part of its “friendshoring” strategy. Associated Press
ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR
Israel Encircles Gaza City. Israel’s military said it has encircled Gaza City in its ongoing assault on the Gaza Strip. Israeli military spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari told reporters that Israeli troops are in “face to face” battles with militants in Gaza and are calling in airstrikes and shelling attacks as needed. Hagari added that Hamas is suffering heavy losses from the Israeli attacks and that the militant group is losing infrastructure and engineering equipment. Israel’s military claims that its latest attacks killed Mustafa Dalul, a Hamas commander who reportedly directed combat in Gaza. Hamas did not immediately confirm that claim. Hamas has claimed to have killed several Israeli troops and destroyed tanks with locally made anti-tank rockets. Hamas and allied Islamic Jihad fighters are fighting Israeli forces with hit-and-run attacks from their tunnel network in Gaza. Israel’s military said it is encountering mines and booby traps set up by Hamas. Deutsche Welle New York Times Reuters
Blinken Pushing Israel for Humanitarian ‘Pauses’ in in Gaza. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Tel Aviv on Friday. He met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other top Israeli officials to push for humanitarian pauses in fighting in Gaza to allow for the distribution of humanitarian aid and the evacuation of foreign passport holders and wounded. Blinken is also reportedly discussing minimizing civilian casualties in Gaza and stopping violence against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank committed by Jewish settlers. Israel has yet to openly respond on the talking points. Israel has ruled out a ceasefire and has vowed to destroy Hamas, with Netanyahu saying on Thursday that Israeli forces “are advancing… nothing will stop us.” White House officials maintain that the humanitarian pauses will be different from a full ceasefire, which the Biden administration said would allow Hamas to recover from Israeli attacks. Blinken will follow his Israel trip with a visit to Amman, Jordan. Associated Press New York Times Reuters
U.S. Flying Drones Over Gaza. U.S. Special Operations forces are flying MQ-9 Reaper drones over the Gaza Strip to aid in hostage recovery efforts, two Defense Department officials say. The officials said the drones are unarmed and are not operating in support of the Israeli military. Aviation researcher Amelia Smith said there appear to be at least six drones involved in the effort. New York Times
Hezbollah’s Nasrallah to Make Major Speech. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah will make his first public comments on the Israel-Hamas conflict in a speech on Friday. Many in the region expect his remarks will signal whether Hezbollah will escalate its fighting with Israel, opening a second front on Israel’s northern border and widening the war. Israel and Hezbollah have engaged in cross-border attacks since October 7, though both sides appear to be avoiding escalation so far. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned of a response of “unimaginable” magnitude if Hezbollah escalates the conflict. Israel Defense Forces spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said the Israeli military is “ready to respond on any front if needed” and is on “high alert” in the north. Experts say a full-scale Israel-Hezbollah conflict would be devastating for Lebanon. Some analysts say Nasrallah may use strong rhetoric in his speech but continue to have Hezbollah fighters limit attacks to northern Israel. BBC New York Times Reuters Times of Israel
Japan FM Visits Israel. Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa met her Israeli counterpart Eli Cohen in Tel Aviv on Friday as part of a regional trip aimed at deescalating the Israel-Hamas conflict. Kamikawa is set to hold talks with Palestinian Foreign Minister Riad Malki in Ramallah in the West Bank later in the day and will also visit Jordan. Kamikawa is expected to call for a pause in the fighting to allow for the distribution of humanitarian aid into Gaza. The Japanese government has pledged $10 million in emergency aid for civilians in Gaza. Kamikawa’s visit comes as a Japanese Self Defense Force plane evacuated 46 people, including 20 Japanese nationals, from Israel, with the evacuees landing in Tokyo on Friday. Japan, which is highly dependent on crude oil from the Middle East, has condemned the Hamas “terror attack” on Israel, but has refrained from criticizing Israeli attacks on Gaza. Kyodo News Japan Times Nikkei Asia
Irish PM Criticizes Israeli Attacks in Gaza as Turning Into ‘Revenge.’ Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar on Friday said Israeli military action in Gaza is “something approaching revenge,” marking some of the strongest criticism of Israel from an E.U. member state. Varadak said Israel has the right to defend itself and go after Hamas, but described Israeli attacks in Gaza as a response that “isn’t just self defense.” In response to whether he thought the Israeli attacks constituted war crimes, he said “that’s not for me to determine.” Israel maintains it is acting within international law and has said Hamas uses Gaza’s civilian population as human shielded. Reuters
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
Russia Launches Drone Attack on City of Kharkiv, Damaging School, Buildings, Vehicles. Ukrainian authorities reported that Russia launched at least 10 drones on the city of Kharkiv overnight on Friday, damaging civilian infrastructure and igniting several blazes. Drones struck a school, starting a fire that devastated the building. Additional fires broke out at a service station, an administrative building, and a residential structure. Though the police said three residents of the city were affected by an "acute stress reaction,” no casualties have yet been reported. Firefighters and emergency crews were working at the scene of the attacks. Ukrainian authorities have predicted that Russian forces will escalate the intensity and frequency of their attacks in the winter and fall. These drone strikes in Kharkiv came just days after Ukraine suffered its heaviest single day of shelling this year. Kyiv Independent
Russian Shelling Strikes 6 Communities in Sumy Oblast. Local officials reported that Russia continued to conduct aerial and artillery strikes on the Sumy region on Thursday, with regional authorities recording 78 explosions most likely from artillery shelling, mortar strikes, and kamikaze UAVs. A post on the Telegram channel of Sumy's Regional Military Administration did not report any casualties but said the settlements of Bilopillia, Esman, Krasnopillia, Myropillia, Seredyna-Buda, and Svesy were struck. Sumy, which is around 30 miles from Ukraine’s border with Russia, has experienced near-daily attacks. Kyiv Independent
Russian Attacks In Ukraine's East Unabated As Analysts Predict Renewed Offensive. The Ukrainian military reported Russia launched dozens of air, missile and artillery attacks in Ukraine yesterday. The General Staff of the Armed Forces said there were 44 air strikes and 59 rocket attacks on both troop positions and “populated areas,” and that there were 38 combat clashes along the front. The General Staff said the Ukrainian military repelled Russian attacks around Kupyansk, Bakhmut, Maryinka and Shakhtarsk. Meanwhile, the Russian Defense Ministry said its forces shot down nine Ukrainian drones near the Zaporizhzhya nuclear station. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said it is likely that Moscow is preparing another wave of highly “attritional” ground assaults on Ukrainian positions in the Avdiivka area. The ISW said satellite imagery showed Russia lost numerous vehicles in assaults in the region earlier this month, showing that the Russian military has not learned from previous “failed offensives” in Ukraine. The ISW’s assessment came a day after publication of an article in The Economist quoting Ukrainian Commander in Chief Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhniy as saying the war is entering a new phase of positional warfare and attritional fighting. He compared the situation to World War I, saying “we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate.” Radio Fee Europe Radio Liberty
U.S. Reportedly Planning $425 Million Ukraine Military Aid Package. Two U.S. officials said on Thursday that the Biden administration plans to announce a $425 million military aid package for Ukraine on Friday, which includes counter drone rockets and munitions. According to a document obtained by Reuters, the planned package will include $300 million worth of laser guided munitions to shoot down Russian drones. The funds for the aid come from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) program, which allows for the weapons to come from industry rather than U.S. stockpiles. The other $125 million is expected to include additional munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) air defenses, High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), 105 and 155 millimeter artillery, TOW anti tank weapons, Claymore mines, small arms, and a dozen trucks according to the anonymous officials. The package is not expected to include ATACMS missiles despite calls for the Biden administration to send longer-range missiles to Ukraine. Since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. has provided about $44 billion worth of security assistance to Kyiv. Associated Press Kyiv Independent Reuters
Russia’s Neighbors Distance Themselves From Moscow as Ukraine War Grinds On. In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s neighbors and allies have been diversifying their international relationships, including strengthening ties with China and with the West. Kazakh political scientist Nargis Kassenova, a senior fellow at the Harvard Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, said fear of Russia has increased with the war, as “the principle of recognizing borders has been broken.” In most countries that were part of the old Soviet empire, Russian influence has declined significantly as both its economy and its military reputation have been damaged by the ongoing war in Ukraine. The shift away from Russia is most pronounced in Moldova, which has severed its dependence on Russian energy, and in Armenia, which is unhappy with Moscow’s unwillingness or inability to protect ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. In Kazakhstan, the largest and most economically significant member of two Russian-led blocs, the Collective Security Treaty Organization military alliance and the Eurasian Economic Union, disapproval of Russia’s leadership spiked to 50 percent from 20 percent in 2021, according to a Gallup poll published in April. Kazakhstan has banned the display of the “Z” symbol, used to express support for Russian troops, and says it has banned the export of military-use goods and technologies to Russia. Uzbek political analyst Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said Central Asian leaders try to appear to Russia as loyal allies, but they also understand that “global pressure on Russia is so strong, the resistance to Russian aggression is so widespread, that it would be very dangerous for them to be associated with Putin’s regime.” He said these countries have focused diplomatic efforts on “avoiding secondary sanctions” and not being seen as “really secretly supporting Putin.” Wall Street Journal
Russian Border Rules Create Difficulties for Ukrainians to Recover Deported Children. Russian border restrictions on Ukrainians has made it difficult and expensive for Ukrainians to reunite with their deported children. One of the most notable restrictions is the “special procedure,” which was instituted in October and limits entry to a single location, the Sheremetyevo Airport in Moscow, rather than through third countries. According to the charitable organizations SOS Children of the Town of Ukraine and Save Ukraine, these restrictions, as well as Latvia’s closure of the only land checkpoint that Moscow allowed Ukrainians to use, have had a severe impact on the “fragile processes” of recovering “stolen” children. Data from Ukraine shows that 19,546 children have been deported and taken to Russia, with only 386 having been returned to their families. In general, Russia requires mothers or close relatives to physically retrieve children, as men of military age are not allowed to exit Ukraine. Now that most routes to Russia have been shut, these women struggle to do so. The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Presidential Commissioner for Children's Rights Maria Lvova-Belova in March of this year for the illegal, forcible deportation of children. BBC Kyiv Independent
Ukraine Says Economic Recovery Requires Return of 4.5 Million Ukrainians. Ukraine’s Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said in an interview published by Forbes on Thursday that the country will need the 4.5 million people who have fled since the war with Russia began to return in order to rebuild the economy. More than 6 million people left when the war began, but about 1 million have returned, according to the U.N. Polls suggest the majority of Ukrainians who fled want to come home, but Svyrydenko said the Economy Ministry believes they will do so only if there is “security, housing, and work.” Svyrydenko cited government programs to provide housing and subsidies for job training and business development, and grants to specific industries. Kyiv Indepdendent Forbes
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
Experts Warn EU Web Certificate Change Could Allow Access to Encrypted Traffic. Cybersecurity experts and industry organizations have written to EU legislators warning that a proposed law could dramatically harm online security. The letters stress that an update under consideration to the EU’s eIDAS (Electronic Identification, Authentication, and Trust Services) regulations could open the way for governments to intercept encrypted international web traffic through arbitrarily issued cryptographic certificates. Under the anticipated change, web browsers would be required to accept as valid Qualified Website Authentication Certificates (QWACs) issued by EU member states. Steven Murdoch, a professor of security engineering at University College London, said that some uses of eIDAS such as verifying government-issued identification documents are fine. He adds, however, “where this proposal is problematic is that it has been extended to web browsers, and it’s not just the digital signatures that are used for signing contracts and things related to government identities.” Thus, if governments were granted the right to issue “root certificates,” they could intercept users’ web traffic by replacing the website’s cryptographic keys with substitutes they control. The Record
TikTok Comes Under Scrutiny for Alleged Domination of Pro-Palestinian Posts. The video social media platform, TikTok, is coming under renewed scrutiny for the alleged prevalence of pro-Palestinian videos on the app. A former dating app executive, Jeff Morris, posted statistics on X over the weekend that he said demonstrates “Israel is losing the TikTok war,” noting that the hastag “#standwithpalestine” had 2.9 billion views contrasted with the 200 million gained by “#standwithisrael” videos. However, these statistics are based on a three-year window. TikTok has countered Morris’ claim by offering data showing “#standwithisrael” registering 46 million views in the U.S. compared with 29 million for “#standwithpalestine.” Sen. Marco Rubio, a long-time critic of TikTok, the Morris assertion reinforces the view that Chinese-owned TikTok is a “propaganda engine” for Beijing, in this case to “downplay Hamas terrorism.” TikTok Thursday responded to the controversy with a blog post, stating, "over the last few days, there has been unsound analysis of TikTok hashtag data around the conflict, causing some commentators to falsely insinuate TikTok is pushing pro-Palestine content over pro-Israel content to U.S. users." Washington Post Reuters
Microsoft Shifts to Hardware Security Module for Encryption Keys After Recent Breach. Microsoft, responding to criticism for lax security controls that allowed Chinese hackers to obtain an encryption key, said Thursday the company will move signing keys into a so-called “hardware security module,” specialized equipment for storing sensitive encryption keys. A Microsoft spokesperson told CyberScoop that the shift to hardware security modules is “not specific to one event but are a reflection of a changing landscape and a commitment to better safeguard customers in unprecedented times.” In a separate blog post, Microsoft said it will transition “identity signing keys to an integrated, hardened Azure HSM and confidential computing infrastructure.” This change will ensure that “signing keys are not only encrypted at rest and in transit, but also during computational processes as well.” Thursday’s announcement is one in a series of changes Microsoft calls its “Secure Future Initiative,” which Microsoft President Brad Smith said is prompted by the aggressive innovation of highly resourced nation-state hacking campaigns. CyberScoop
North Korean Hackers Targeting Apple Devices Used in Cryptocurrency Transactions. Apple devices used by blockchain engineers are being targeted by North Korean hackers deploying advance malware. Researchers from Elastic Security Labs report that the tactics used in the blockchain intrusions align with those of the Lazarus threat actor, long associated with North Korean intelligence services. Elastic Security did not identify the blockchain exchange that has been targeted, but believe the probable goal was theft of cryptocurrency. The attack relied on a Python app masquerading as a cryptocurrency program that automatically conducts cryptocurrency transactions, known as an arbitrage bot. The malware was delivered via direct message on a Discord server frequently used by blockchain engineers. Devices operating on macOS were targeted by the campaign with the threat actors attempting to load malware called Kandykorn, which is capable of accessing and exfiltrating data from infected computers while avoiding detection. The attacks, which began in April, are ongoing although it is unclear the scope of successful malware intrusions and how much, if any, cryptocurrency was stolen. The Record
UK, Australia Conclude Agreement on Quantum Technology Research During AI Summit. Britain and Australia Thursday signed an agreement on joint cooperation related to quantum technologies. Australia’s industry minister, Ed Husic, and the UK’s science and technology secretary, Michelle Donelan, signed the Joint Statement during the AI Safety Summit at Bletchley Park. The agreement will create channels for increased investment between British and Australian companies as well as facilitate exchanges of research and expertise. Husic noted that "Like AI, quantum will profoundly change our world, meaning international collaboration is essential.” He also paid tribute to the two countries’ long history of technology cooperation, with the UK standing as Australia’s second biggest quantum collaborator after the United States. Australian Ministry of Industry and Science
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
Asia and Oceania
Japan Curbing Military Spending Plan Due to Weak Yen. Japan is reportedly having to scale back its historic five-year, 43.5-trillion-yen ($320 billion) military build-up due to a collapse in the yen, according to sources familiar with the matter. Since the defense procurement plan was announced in December, the yen has lost 10% of its value against the dollar. Government and industry sources say Tokyo is prioritizing spending on U.S.-made frontline weapons like missiles, meaning it will have to cut back on purchases of support aircraft and other secondary kit, much of which is made by Japanese companies. Analysts say the move risks backlash from Japanese defense companies. One government official said Japan’s defense ministry does not hedge against currency rate fluctuations like large companies do with overseas business, meaning Tokyo has few options to address the rising cost in yen of U.S.-made weaponry. Experts say the impact is modest so far, but warn that a long-term depreciation of the yen will cause cuts and delays to key acquisitions in Japan’s defense build-up. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida had pledged to increase annual defense spending to 2% of gross domestic product, in part to counter Chinese aggression against Taiwan. Japan’s Ministry of Defense, the U.S. Embassy in Tokyo and the Pentagon did not comment on the matter. Reuters
North Korea Calls for Bolstered Nuclear Deterrent Following U.S. Missile Test. North Korea’s KCNA media agency on Friday denounced Washington for testing its nuclear-capable Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in California on Wednesday and vowed that Pyongyang will expand its military deterrent to strengthen its security against the American nuclear threat. South Korean defense officials attended the ICBM test this week, prompting a North Korean military commentator to accuse the U.S. of targeting Pyongyang. The commenter said that the presence of the South’s "puppet military gangsters" only further necessitates “military action” to fortify “the deterrence and ensure the strategic security.” The unidentified commentator also condemned Washington and Seoul for the transfer of American nuclear strategic bombers to South Korea, saying that the move approaches a “new red line.” South Korea’s Unification Ministry said this commentary may suggest the North is attempting to justify another potential military “provocation.” Reuters
China Position on Israel-Hamas War Contrasts Past Cooperation. China has adopted a position on the war in Gaza relatively against Israel, accusing Israeli attacks of going “beyond self-defense.” This stance contradicts the years of close ties and military relations between China and Israel, which was the first country in the Middle East to formally recognize the People’s Republic of China. After U.S.-China relations began warming in the 1980s, Israel expanded trade with China, including by selling advanced weapons to Beijing. Israel maintained this defense cooperation with China through the 1990s. The U.S. government eventually intervened in the early 2000s to break ties, pressuring Israel to cancel arms deals over concerns that they could allow China to access U.S. technology and undermine U.S. military superiority in Asia. Israel’s ties with China were also impacted as the Israeli government received more military aid from the U.S. Security cooperation between China and Israel has since been limited to non-traditional areas like counterterrorism, anti-piracy, and humanitarian relief. The U.S. has also pushed Israel to limit research and technology cooperation with China, especially with heightened competition in recent years. China has traditionally backed Palestinian independence and a two-state solution. Its recent growing relations with Iran has also been concerning to the Israelis. South China Morning Post
France and Uzbekistan Seek 'Strategic Partnership’ After Presidents Meet. French President Emmanuel Macron met with his Uzbek counterpart Shavkar Mirziyoyev in Uzbekistan’s capital of Samarkand on Thursday, where the two leaders discussed potential projects in uranium and agriculture, and agreed to create a “strategic partnership.” Macron, who did not offer many details about what this partnership entails, complimented Mirziyoyev’s reforms and pledged to invest in Uzbekistan, which is the world's fifth-largest producer of uranium. Mirziyoyev also met with French business executives for talks on agricultural deals. Mirziyoyev’s office also said he met with Orano chairman Claude Imauven, resulting in the two sides showing support for “initiatives to expand cooperation in the exploration and mining of uranium.” Reuters
Europe
U.N. Security Council Extends E.U. Peacekeeping Mandate in Bosnia. The U.N. Security Council on Thursday unanimously adopted a resolution extending the mandate of the E.U.’s peacekeeping mission in Bosnia-Herzegovina for another year. The mission, known as EUFOR Althea, is made up of around 1,100 soldiers from 20 countries. It must be renewed by the Security Council every year and was first deployed in 2004. A report to the Security Council on the mission warned that there have been “unprecedented attacks on the Dayton peace agreement and the constitutional order of Bosnia” and there have been wrong interpretations of the Dayton agreement to serve secessionist aims in the majority Serb entity of Republika Srpska. RFE/RL
The Americas
China’s Confucius Institutes Almost Fully Disappear in U.S. The Government Accountability Office reports that all but five of the China-funded Confucius Institutes in the U.S. have closed. In 2019, there were 96 institutes, which were created in 2004 to promote Chinese language learning, operating in 44 states. The decline of the institutes tracks with the escalation in tensions between China and the U.S. The Trump administration started attacks on the Confucius Institutes, which were accused of being tools for China’s Communist Party to exert influence and promote itself abroad. Officials say most U.S. colleges and universities started abandoning the institutes due to language in the 2019 and 2021 defense authorization bills suggesting that schools could lose federal funding if they kept receiving money from Beijing to support the program. Bloomberg South China Morning Post
BRICS Seeks Expansion, But Challenges Remain. BRICS is seeking to expand to potentially significantly increase its position on the world stage. It has invited Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Argentina, Ethiopia and Egypt to join in 2024. Experts say an expanded BRICS could bolster the group’s say in world affairs and alter the global economy by boosting ties between its less market-oriented members. Additionally, while the original BRICS group members all have large economies and high potential growth rates, the new potential members have economies of varying size and stability, possibly signaling the group’s intent to expand beyond economics. However, experts say BRICS countries’ different economic trajectories make the group irrelevant as a key investment theme. India is the only original BRICS member to not underperform emerging-market counterparts over the last five years. Russia and China are facing various sanctions. China’s economy is maturing and facing structural slowdown. Brazil’s economy is also slowing, and South Africa continues to struggle with electricity demand. There are also internal divisions, including competition between China and India and concerns from Brazil about alienating the West. Bloomberg
The data cutoff for this product was 8:00a.m. E.T.
Ethan Masucol, Brad Christian, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell, and Bruce Wilmot contributed to this report.
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