10:00 AM ET, Friday, November 17, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines:
THE TOP STORIES
Day After Xi Meeting, Biden Says U.S. Has ‘Real Differences’ With China. A day after his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, President Biden told executives at the APEC summit yesterday that the U.S. and China have “real differences” that will be addressed with “smart policies and strong diplomacy.” While Biden and Xi reached agreement in several areas, several major areas of disagreement were set aside for now, including trade and tariffs imposed during the Trump Administration. The two sides appear to disagree even over the nature of their relationship. At a dinner with U.S. business leaders, Xi emphasized friendship and rejected the notion of an existential competition between the two countries. Xi said China seeks to be “a partner and friend” to the United States. Biden meanwhile has said China and the U.S. are in a competitive relationship and that he is responsible for managing that competition “so it doesn’t result in conflict.” The Biden-Xi meeting came at a time when China is seeking some things from the U.S. Xi wants a renewal of American financial investments in China and an end to technology export controls, which may explain a softening of Beijing’s tone. Council on Foreign Relations President Michael Froman, who attended the dinner at which Xi spoke, said Xi’s remarks were reminiscent of the “era of engagement” years ago, as if “some of the events of the past few years had not occurred.” New York Times Bloomberg New York Times
Israel Releases Footage of Tunnel at Gaza’s Largest Hospital. The Israeli military released footage of a tunnel opening at Gaza’s Al-Shifa Hospital yesterday, the first evidence to support Israel’s claim that Hamas is operating a tunnel network that runs under the hospital. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Hamas was operating a command center under the hospital. The Israeli military says it is still in the process of combing through the complex, but says it has found computers and other devices containing information related to the estimated 240 hostages Hamas took during its October 7 attack on Israel, and that information is being investigated. Wall Street Journal Bloomberg
U.S., Philippines Sign Landmark Nuclear Deal. The U.S. and the Philippines signed a landmark agreement at the APEC which will allow the export of American nuclear technology and material to the Philippines. Manila hopes to use nuclear power to decarbonize and become more energy independent. The deal requires Congressional approval. The State Department issued a statement saying the deal, commonly known as a 123 Agreement, will enhance cooperation on clean energy security and strengthen the U.S.-Philippines alliance. Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said he sees nuclear energy becoming part of the country’s energy mix by 2032. Reuters State.gov Barrons
China, Japan Reaffirm Strategic Relations in Rare Talks Between Leaders. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said at the APEC summit yesterday that they will pursue mutually beneficial relations. In their first meeting in more than a year, the two leaders stressed their shared economic interests. They also discussed difficult issues including China’s ban on Japanese seafood, imposed after China began releasing water from its crippled Fukushima nuclear plant into the ocean, and the case of a Japanese businessman detained in China on suspicion of espionage. The two sides also agreed to hold regular talks on export controls as countries around the world seek to limit shipments of sensitive materials and technologies to China. Waseda Institute of Contemporary Chinese Studies Director Rumi Aoyama said China’s effort to strengthen relations with Japan could be driven partly by a “desire to drive a wedge” between Japan and the U.S. Reuters
ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR
Netanyahu says Israel ‘Not Successful’ in Efforts to Minimize Gaza Civilian Casualties. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday that while Israel is doing all it can to minimize casualties in Gaza, its efforts were “not successful.” When asked in an interview with CBS News about whether civilian casualties in Gaza will fuel a new generation of hatred, Netanyahu emphasized Israeli efforts to “get the civilians out of harm’s way,” including by dropping leaflets and contacting Palestinians via cell phone to leave areas where Israeli forces are operating. He also accused Hamas of preventing civilians in Gaza from heading to safe areas, which he says has contributed to the mounting civilian death toll. Gaza health authorities report that at least 11,500 people have been killed in Israeli air and ground attacks in Gaza since the Hamas attacks on October 7. Rights groups say two thirds of the 2.3 million people in the Gaza Strip have been made homeless by the war. Reuters Times of Israel
Israel says Body of Hostage Recovered Near Gaza’s Al Shifa Hospital. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said on Thursday that it found the body of an Israeli woman kidnapped by Hamas in a “structure” near the Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza. The IDF said the body of the woman, Yehudit Weiss, was brought back to Israel. The IDF did not offer details on how or when she was killed. IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari said that she had been killed by Hamas. CNN Reuters
U.N. Aid Deliveries to Gaza Suspended. U.N. deliveries of aid to Gaza were reportedly suspended again because of fuel shortages and a shutdown of communications. U.N. World Food Program Director Cindy McCain said that nearly the entire population of Gaza is in desperate need of food and water. The Palestinian news agency WAFA said several Palestinians were killed and others injured when an Israeli strike hit a group of displaced people near the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt, the transit point for aid. Al Jazeera reported sources said there were nine fatalities in the strike. Reuters
Israel to Allow Two Fuel Trucks a Day into Gaza, Official Says. The Israeli war cabinet has approved two fuel trucks a day to be allowed into Gaza to help meet U.N. needs, an Israeli official said. The unidentified official said the decision came in response to a U.S. request and that the amount of fuel would provide “minimal” support for water, sewer and sanitary systems in Gaza to prevent pandemics. Reuters
Syria Claims to Down Israeli Missiles over Damascus. Syria’s army said it downed Israeli missiles fired from the Golan Heights towards areas around the Syrian capital Damascus on Friday. Syrian state media said most of the missiles were intercepted though some caused material damage. However, the war monitor Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said “two foreign fighters” from pro-Iran groups were killed in the attack and that an arms depot belonging to Hezbollah was destroyed. The Israeli military did not comment. Last week, Israel said a group in Syria launched missiles at the port of Eilat and Syria said Israeli forces launched an aerial attack targeting military sites in southern Syria. Barron’s Reuters
E.U.’s Borrell Cautions Israel Against ‘Rage’ in Response to Hamas. E.U. foreign policy chief Josep Borell on Thursday urged Israel to “not to be consumed by rage” in its response to the Hamas attacks, saying that “one horror does not justify another.” Borrell made the comments during a visit to a kibbutz targeted by Hamas as part of his first visit to Israel since the militant group’s assault on October 7. Borrell attempted to both show solidarity with Israel and express concerns about civilian casualties amid Israeli military operations in Gaza. Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen, who accompanied Borrell, asserted that Hamas, which he emphasized is backed by Iran, is the “only one responsible” for the violence and destruction in Gaza and Israel. Borrell also met with families of hostages taken by Hamas and told them he would raise the issue of securing the release of hostages with Qatar, which has been heavily involved in mediating hostage negotiations. Reuters The Guardian
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
Ukraine Establishes Positions on Eastern Bank of Dnipro. The Ukrainian military reports that they have pushed back Russian troops in several areas on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, establishing “several bridgeheads” and consolidating in the area. Ukrainian General Staff spokesperson Andriy Kovalyov said the drive to the occupied eastern bank is aimed at pushing back Russian forces to better protect Ukrainian civilians on the western bank of the Dnipro, particularly in Kherson city, from Russian shelling. He added that Ukraine is conducting sabotage and reconnaissance operations on the eastern bank to disrupt Russian supply lines. He noted that Russia has brought reinforcements to the area and is putting up fierce resistance. Russia has acknowledged the Ukrainian advance to the eastern bank of the Dnipro but claims to have inflicted heavy losses on the Ukrainian side. Analysts say that if Ukraine successfully liberates and holds territory on the occupied eastern bank, it could open up a new southern line of attack towards Crimea. The Ukrainian offensive in the south will also likely impact Russia’s ability to commit to eastern offensives around Bakhmut and in the Avdiivka and Marinka directions. Reuters
Zelensky Says Ukraine Bolstering Air Defenses in Some Regions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Thursday that Ukraine is strengthening its air defenses in periphery regions, including Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia. Zelensky asserted that Ukraine is “constantly getting stronger” and its “air defense capabilities are increasing.” Sophisticated western air defense systems, such as Patriot batteries, have been installed in the capital, but regions like Kharkiv and Donetsk, which are more difficult to defend due to their close proximity to Russian territory, have much weaker air defenses. Moscow’s arsenals are expected to grow significantly in the coming weeks due to the country’s strengthening ties with Iran, particularly concerning military drone tech. Ukraine’s allies are hastening to boost the nation’s defenses, and are employing both Soviet-era equipment and modern Western systems to create a distinctive defensive cover. Kyiv Independent
UK Defense Ministry Says Russia Using Airborne Early Warning and Control Aircraft. According to the UK Ministry of Defense, Russia has most likely begun to use A-50 MAINSTAY D, an Airborne Early Warning and Control Aircraft, for the first time to spot its targets in Ukraine for its SA-21 long-range ground-based air defense missile system. MAINSTAY has the capability to use its radar to identify hostile aircraft at longer ranges, as its altitude permits it to see further. The Ministry says that Russia is likely concerned about the possibility that Ukraine may deploy Western combat aircraft, leading Moscow to accelerate the integration of MAINSTAY and SA-21. The Ministry predicts that Russia may be willing to accept more risks by flying MAINSTAY closer to the front-lines, to efficiently fulfill its new role. UK Defense Ministry X
Kagan: Increasing Western Military Aid Could Tip Balance for Ukraine, Curtailing Assistance Would Be Catastrophic. Frederick Kagan of the Institute for the Study of War writes that the stalemate in Ukraine is highly unstable and the balance could be “readily tipped” either way depending on decisions made in the West. Kagan says the West possesses the weaponry needed to address almost all of the challenges faced by the Ukrainian military. On the other hand, if Russia fully mobilized its economy and society for war, it could counterbalance its technical limitations. Ukraine’s ability to prevent Russian forces from conducting large-scale mechanized maneuver warfare remains dependent on continued Western aid at least at the current level. Kagan cites in particular air defense, anti-tank and artillery systems provided by Western countries and says that expansion of Western aid could enable the Ukrainian military to restore maneuverability on the battlefield. Kagan also says increased air power likely would have the most significant impact on Ukraine. Conversely, Kagan says, a curtailment of Western aid would be a “catastrophe” for Ukraine, NATO and the United States. Institute for the Study of War
Thousands of Ukrainian Children Taken to Belarus. Over 2,400 Ukrainian children have been taken to 13 facilities across Belarus since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, according to research by the Humanitarian Research Lab at Yale School of Public Health. Yale researchers said the children have been taken from at least 17 cities in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions and that it is an ongoing practice. Once in Belarus, research shows that Ukrainian children are subjected to military training and re-education. Researchers also said transports of children to Belarus were funded by Belarusian state organizations and “ultimately coordinated” between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. The research is the most extensive evidence to date about Belarus’s role in supporting Russia’s systematic relocation and re-education of Ukrainian children from areas it has occupied. Forced deportations of children could constitute a war crime. Russia’s Children’s Rights Commissioner, Belarus’s foreign ministry, Ukraine’s foreign ministry and the Ukrainian prosecutor general did not comment on the research. Reuters Kyiv Independent
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
TikTok Banning Videos Promoting Osama Bin Laden’s ‘Letter to America.’ TikTok is banning content promoting former Al Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden’s 2002 “Letter to America,” which details his justifications for the 9/11 attacks. The letter criticized U.S. support for Israel, accused Washington of “financing” oppression of Palestinians, and included antisemitic comments. TikTok said content promoting the letter violates the platform’s rules against supporting terrorism, adding that reports that the letter is “trending” on the platform are inaccurate. Analysts say however, that prior to Tik Tok removing the content, that the videos had amassed over 14 million views. Some U.S. lawmakers who have called for a ban on TikTok renewed their criticism of the Chinese-owned app ahead of the comments about the letter. TikTok’s ban on content related to the letter came a day after The Guardian removed the full text of the letter from its website. The news outlet, which published the text in 2002 when the letter was released, said the text was being shared on social media without full context and will now direct readers to the full news article that originally reported on the letter. Reuters Washington Post The Guardian
Largest U.S. Chip Making Equipment Maker Investigated for Shipments to China’s. The largest U.S. semiconductor equipment maker Applied Materials is being investigated by U.S. authorities for potentially evading export restrictions on China’s. Sources say the Justice Department is investigating Applied Materials for allegedly sending hundreds of millions of dollars worth of equipment to Chinese tech firm SMIC via South Korea without export licenses. Sources said the shipments began after the U.S. Commerce Department added SMIC to its “Entity List” in December 2020, restricting technology exports to the company, for its alleged ties to the Chinese military. SMIC has denied the allegations. Applied Materials has said it is committed to complying with relevant law, export controls, and trade regulations. The Commerce Department did not comment on the matter. A spokesperson for China’s embassy in Washington said she was not aware of the investigation, but maintained that certain restrictions are “at odds with market economy principles and fair competition.” A spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry said Beijing will closely follow relevant developments and called on the U.S. to not disrupt global semiconductor production and supply chains. Reuters could not determine if Applied Materials violated the law or if it will face charges. Reuters
Israeli Private Detective Sentenced Over Hacker-for-Hire Scheme. A U.S. federal court in Manhattan sentenced Israeli private detective Aviram Azari to 6-⅔ years in prison for being a hacker-for-hire and organizing hacking campaigns against thousands of people around the world. Azari, who has been detained in the U.S. since 2019, pleaded guilty last year to three counts of wire fraud, conspiracy to commit hacking, and aggravated identity theft. Prosecutors sought an eight to nine year prison sentence, arguing that Azari’s firm earned nearly $5 million over five years for organizing the hacking campaigns. Azari’s defense lawyer argued for a shorter sentence since he took responsibility for the hacking and had contracted a “debilitating medical condition” while in jail. Prosecutors said Azari’s hacking operations targeted a wide range of victims. They said the now-defunct German company Wirecard hired him to target critics of the firm. Prosecutors also said Azari directed hackers to steal emails from climate activists campaigning against U.S. oil company Exxon Mobil Corp, which then used those messages in its defense against probes by U.S. state attorneys general. The prosecutors did not link Azari and Exxon, which has denied connection to his hacking activities. Reuters previously investigated Azari as part of a story on how mercenary hackers in India help wealthy clients in court battles. Reuters The Record
Toyota Financial Services Hit by Cyberattack. Toyota says its European and African financial services department was hit by a cyberattack. The company said it is bringing some services in the department back online and that it is working with authorities to investigate the incident. The statement came after the Medusa ransomware gang claimed to have stolen data from Toyota Financial Service and demanded an $8 million ransom to be paid within 10 days. Toyota has experienced several cybersecurity incidents over the last three years. Cybersecurity expert Kevin Beaumont said that Toyota systems accessible through the internet were vulnerable to the “Citrix Bleed” vulnerability that was announced last month. The Record
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit
China’s Xi Appeals for Foreign Investment, Offers Little Concrete Reassurance. Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday pledged to take measures to attract foreign investment back to China. He told the APEC Summit that China will “strive to tear down the barriers” blocking trade and data flows and implement more “heart-warming” measures such as improving policies on foreign nationals seeking to enter and stay in China and removing choke points on financial, medical, and other services. Xi also described China as “the most powerful engine of global growth,” emphasizing its economic recovery and high-quality development. Xi is seeking foreign investment to bolster China’s stagnating economy. Foreign capital has been leaving China at unprecedented levels following U.S. technology export controls and expanding Chinese counterespionage and data security laws. Xi’s remarks mainly included generalities, focusing more on improving relations between China and the U.S. rather than discussing commercial relations and specific ways to address the U.S. business community’s concerns about operating in China. Wall Street Journal Reuters Bloomberg South China Morning Post
Biden Reiterates U.S. Economic Commitment to Asia-Pacific. President Joe Biden reiterated U.S. commitment to the Asia-Pacific and emphasized the region’s importance, saying that “much of the history of the world will be written in the Asia Pacific in the coming years.” Biden sought to send a clear message about U.S. leadership, asserting that the U.S. is “not going anywhere” and will continue to invest and engage with the region. He added that while China offers unparalleled economic opportunities, the U.S. will help foster a “fair” business environment in the region by pushing for fair trade standards and the protection of Asian countries’ intellectual property. His comments came after security and economic talks with the leaders of Japan and South Korea. Associated Press France 24 Bloomberg South China Morning Post
Biden Admin Lifts Sanctions from Chinese Institute in Fentanyl Deal. The Biden administration on Thursday decided to remove the Chinese Ministry of Public Security's Institute of Forensic Science from a trade sanction list, as part of efforts to press Beijing into taking part in stemming the flow of deadly, illicit fentanyl to the U.S. The move was part of an agreement between President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping to cooperate on curbing fentanyl trafficking. In 2020, former U.S. President Donald Trump placed curbs on the Chinese Institute due to its alleged human rights abuses against the ethnic Uyghur population in China’s Xinjiang region. These sanctions effectively prohibited the institute from engaging in business with U.S. companies or receiving goods from American suppliers. Last year, China’s then-ambassador to the U.S. Qin Gang said it was “shocking” that Washington would impose sanctions on an institute he described as vital to monitoring and controlling fentanyl production and shipment. Biden and Xi have agreed to create a group on counter-narcotics collaboration, though it is unclear exactly what Beijing has consented to do to hinder the manufacture and transfer of the drug. Both Republicans and human rights activists such as attorney Rayhan Asat have denounced the deal, accusing Washington of ignoring a “genocide” and failing to address China’s crimes against an ethnic minority. The Chinese embassy in Washington has not yet responded to a request for comment. Reuters Bloomberg Business Standard
U.S. Defense Secretary to Meet Chinese Counterpart ‘When That Person is Named.’ The Pentagon said on Thursday that U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin “will meet with his Chinese counterpart when that person is named,” signaling that top-level U.S.-China military talks will have to wait until China appoints a new defense minister. Beijing has yet to appoint a new defense minister following the removal of Li Shangfu from the position in October for unknown reasons. The Pentagon’s remarks on military-to-military dialogue come after President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to resume military lines of communication and talks on defense policy and maritime safety. Austin, who is participating in regional defense talks in Indonesia, noted that it is unclear whether China’s promise to restart military-to-military communications also means that it will scale back provocative actions in the region, so both sides must maintain open lines of communication to manage crises and avoid escalation. South China Morning Post
E.U.’s Von der Leyen Urges De-Risking from China. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned the E.U. that it must accelerate its de-risking from China or prepare for their businesses to face unfair Chinese competition. Speaking in Berlin, von der Leyen was pessimistic on E.U. relations with China. She said that European companies are at risk of being “squeezed out by Chinese competition,” highlighting how Beijing is relocating industries domestically and how “floods” of Chinese goods could enter Europe as the Chinese economy stagnates. She also noted that European firms must protect themselves from China to ensure their intellectual property is secure and that they are not involved in China’s buildup of military capabilities. She warned that European firms are at risk from these developments and urged E.U. governments to take action, saying that “geopolitics and geoeconomics need to be considered even more closely together and dealt with on a European level.” Discussions in the E.U. about economic security are being trumped by crises in Gaza and Ukraine. Some E.U. officials are also pushing against the bloc imposing further trade restrictions, even when related to China. South China Morning Post
China, Mexico Leaders Discuss Trade, Cooperation. The leaders of Mexico and China met on Thursday on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco, where they agreed to boost ties and cooperation, counter illicit drug trafficking, and bolster trade and investment. According to a statement from the Chinese embassy in Mexico, President Xi Jinping said Sino-Mexican relations are becoming more and more "mutually beneficial,” and Beijing is open “to strengthen the articulation of strategies” and “explore the potential for cooperation ... to promote bilateral relations to a higher level." Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador reiterated these ideas, saying that the two nations would continue to maintain “good relations for the benefit of our people." Mexican Foreign Minister Alicia Barcena reported that the two leaders also agreed to battle illegal trafficking of fentanyl precursor chemicals. The Mexican foreign ministry added that Lopez Obrador told Xi about two infrastructure projects, the Interoceanic Corridor in southern Mexico and solar energy development in the north. Lopez Obrador, who is expected to meet U.S. President Joe Biden on Friday, also spoke with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Thursday to discuss migration and investments. Reuters
Europe
U.S. Imposes Sanctions to Counter Russian Influence in the Western Balkans. The U.S. sanctioned 10 individuals and 20 entities, including 11 based in Russia, in an effort to contain Russian influence in the Western Balkans. Those targeted by the sanctions are accused of supporting Russian actions aimed at preventing the Western Balkans’ integration into international institutions. Individuals targeted by the move include pro-Russian politicians and businessmen involved in the transfer of military parts and equipment to Russia. Reuters U.S. Department of the Treasury Kyiv Independent
Middle East
International Court Finds Evidence of Torture Violations, Human Rights Abuses in Syria. The International Court of Justice on Thursday said it has found substantial evidence of human rights abuses during Syria’s civil war and ordered the government of President Bashar al-Assad to comply with the global treaty prohibiting torture and secure proof of violations for future prosecution. The ruling came after Canada and the Netherlands filed a case against Syria under the Convention Against Torture. In a joint statement, the Canadian and Dutch governments said that “since at least 2011, countless victims in Syria have been tortured, murdered, sexually assaulted and forcibly disappeared.” Syria did not engage in the court proceedings, though it sent a letter in October denying the allegations. Its diplomatic offices in Canada and the U.N. did not respond to requests for comment. Paulo Pinheiro, the chairman of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry for Syria, said the court’s ruling is “a landmark order by the world’s top court” to put an end to cruelties “in Syria’s detention facilities.” The court said there was ample evidence that prisoners of the government were subjected to sexual abuse, rape, “torture and other acts of cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment.” Wall Street Journal
Africa
Sudan Requests U.N. 'Immediately Terminate' Political Mission. Sudanese acting Foreign Minister Ali Sadeq on Thursday requested that the U.N. “immediately terminate” UNITAMS, the U.N.’s political mission in Sudan, due to its “disappointing” performance in aiding the country’s transitional government. In a letter addressed to U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Sadeq affirmed that the Sudanese government is “committed to engaging constructively with the Security Council and the Secretariat," though UNITAMS had not met Sudan’s expectations. The mission, which started in 2020, employs more than 400 civilians. The U.N. Secretary-General’s spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said that Sadeq’s letter had been received and circulated to the U.N. Security Council. In September, the U.N.’s special envoy to Sudan said he would stand down, more than 90 days after Khartoum declared him unwelcome following the outbreak of war between Sudan’s army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. Reuters Deutsche Welle
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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, and Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.
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