10:00 AM ET, Friday, July 21, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas
U.S. Ambassador to China Email Account Breached in Recent Chinese Hack Attack. The email account of U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns reportedly was hacked as part of the cyberespionage campaign carried out by a hacking group linked to Beijing. The email account of Daniel Kritenbrink, the assistant secretary of state for East Asia, also was breached in the attack. Although the accounts were unclassified, the emails of Burns and Kritenbrink may have contained information useful to understanding U.S. planning for visits to China by senior officials. Burns and Kritenbrink join Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo as the most senior U.S. officials affected by the hacking campaign. Wall Street Journal CNN Reuters Politico South China Morning Post New York Times
U.S. Senate Rejects Proposal to Restrict Ukraine Aid. The U.S. overwhelmingly opposed a proposed amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act which would have restricted U.S. aid to Ukraine by tying it to defense spending by NATO members. The measure would have required that only 2 percent of funds earmarked for Ukraine by the Pentagon in fiscal 2024 be spent until every NATO member achieved defense spending equal to at least 2 percent of their gross domestic product. The Senate rejected the amendment, which was backed by a small group of Republicans who have questioned the use and scale of Ukraine military aid, by 71 to 13. Reuters
U.S. Concerned About Continued Silence on U.S. Soldier Who Crossed Into North Korea. Officials in the United States have voiced increasing concern over Travis King, the Army Private who ran across the Demilitarized Zone into North Korea two days ago. U.S. Army Secretary Christine Wormuth said that Washington was fully mobilized trying to contact Pyongyang, including through U.N. communications channels, but North Korea has yet to respond. Wormuth said “I worry about him, frankly,” citing the case of Otto Warmbier, a U.S. college student who was imprisoned in North Korea before dying shortly after he was returned to the United States in 2017. White House National Security Council Spokesman John Kirby also expressed his concern, saying North Korea “is not a country that is known for the humane treatment of Americans - or frankly anybody else for that matter.” U.S. officials remain puzzled as to why King ran across the border, but Wormuth acknowledged that he was likely worried about facing further disciplinary action from the Army when he returned to the U.S. She additionally said that she was not aware of any information that King was a North Korean sympathizer. It is still unknown whether or not King is still alive. Reuters
US Transportation Secretary Raises Concerns Over Chinese UAVs. U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said Thursday that the Department of Transportation has national security concerns over Chinese autonomous vehicle suppliers within the American market. Buttigieg expressed his concern in an interview by saying “"whether we are talking about hardware or software, in the same way there are concerns around telecom or TikTok, there are concerns around transportation technologies." He additionally called for the United States to better understand “the true ownership of different enterprises that are supplying different elements of our transportation systems.” A bipartisan group of four lawmakers sent a letter to Buttigieg and Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo asking for an investigation into the prevalence of Chinese autonomous vehicle technology in the United States and how it can be regulated. “Technology used by AVs, LiDAR, RADAR, cameras, AI and other advanced sensors and semiconductors can all be used to collect data on the American people and infrastructure that could be shared back to China and ultimately to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP),” the lawmakers wrote in their letter. Additionally, the lawmakers cited data from California regulators showing that seven different Chinese firms had tested autonomous vehicle technology in the state last year. Reuters South China Morning Post
US Approves $2.9 Billion Missile Sale to Germany. The U.S. Department of State approved a sale of air-to-air missiles worth $2.9 billion to Germany. The possible sale would allow Germany to receive up to 969 AIM-120C-8 missiles and related equipment. Additionally, the deal would include AIM-120 training missiles, a telemetry kit, spare parts, and transportation support. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency said that the possible sale would help bolster the security of NATO and promote political and economic stability in Europe and improve Germany’s ability to face existing threats by ensuring that the country has capable and modern air-to-air munitions. If congress does not reject the potential deal, it would then go into negotiations where the quantity of equipment and dollar amount is subject to change. Defense News US DoD DSCA
Western Europe
Turkey Urges Further Swedish Action on Terrorism Before Ratification of NATO Bid. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday told reporters that Ankara will move to ratify Sweden’s NATO membership bid in conjunction with counterterrorism cooperation from Stockholm. Erdogan’s comments cast doubt on how swiftly Turkey will follow through with his unexpected agreement at the NATO summit in Vilnius to back Sweden’s application to join NATO. Turkey accuses Sweden of not doing enough against individuals on Swedish territory who Ankara says are part of groups that it deems terrorist organizations. Sweden maintains it has done enough to address Turkey’s security concerns, including devising a new counterterrorism law. Erdogan’s comments came after a Swedish court blocked the extradition of Turkish citizens that Ankara says are terrorists. Reuters
Central and Eastern Europe
Russia Continues Attack on Odesa Region, Practices Targeting Ships in Black Sea. Ukraine reports that Russia hit Ukraine’s Odesa region for the fourth consecutive day on Friday. Odesa governor Oleh Kiper said that the latest attack injured two people and hit grain terminals in the region, destroying 100 tons of peas and tons of barley. Russia has described the attacks as retaliation for the Ukrainian strike on the Crimea Bridge. Separately, Russia’s defense ministry said its Black Sea fleet practiced striking “floating targets.” The exercises came after Moscow said it would view ships bound for Ukrainian ports as potential carriers of military cargo. John Kirby, spokesman for the National Security Council, warned that Russia may be preparing false-flag operations to launch attacks on civilian ships in the Black Sea and then blame them on Ukraine. Russia’s ambassador to Washington said Moscow does not plan to attack civilian ships in the region, according to Russian state media. Reuters New York Times
Zelensky Fires UK Ambassador Over Criticism on British Aid. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday dismissed Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK, Vadym Prystaiko. While Kyiv gave no official reason for the firing, it came after a row over British military aid for Ukraine. British defense minister Ben Wallace previously warned Ukraine that its Western allies are “not Amazon” and that Kyiv needed to show more gratitude for support it has received so far. Zelensky responded by saying Ukraine is always grateful and “can wake up in the morning and thank the minister. Let him write to me and tell me how to thank him.” Prystaiko criticized Zelensky by saying his remarks contained “unhealthy sarcasm.” BBC Reuters
CIA Chief Expects Putin Will Seek Reprisal Against Wagner Head Prigozhin. CIA Director William Burns told the Aspen Security Forum on Thursday that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be considering how to best seek retribution against Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prighozin, who last month led a mutiny against the Kremlin’s military leadership. Burns said that the situation is “a very complicated dance," and called Putin “the ultimate apostle of payback” who believes “revenge is a dish best served cold," suggesting that he is buying time to assess how to handle Prigozhin. According to Burns, it is likely that Putin will attempt to separate the Wagner Group and its chief, as Moscow still sees value in the mercenary organization, particularly in Africa, Syria, and Libya. Burns also commented on the fact that the failed insurrection most likely raised concerns within Russia’s elite about Putin’s judgment, noting that the Kremlin “appeared to be adrift” during the mutiny. The Cipher Brief BBC South China Morning Post NBC News New York Times
U.S. Says Ukraine Employing Cluster Munitions 'Effectively'. John Kirby, spokesman for the National Security Council, told reporters on Thursday that Ukrainian forces are using U.S.-supplied cluster munitions “effectively” in their counter-offensive against Russia. He said that the U.S. has received “some initial feedback from the Ukrainians” on the weapons and has been reassured by Kyiv that the munitions are being used “appropriately.” Kirby added that the cluster bombs are already affecting Russian defensive formations, movements, and operations. A Ukrainian military official told the Washington Post that the long-requested cluster munitions are being used to destroy entrenched Russian defenses and minefields which have slowed the Ukrainian counteroffensive. BBC Al Jazeera
Poland Says Crashed Drone Belongs to U.S. The Polish defense ministry reported on Friday that a military reconnaissance drone used during a training flight by U.S. soldiers crashed in southwestern Poland on Tuesday. The ministry said there was no damage caused by the crash and that the drone was returned to the U.S. Reuters
Asia and Oceania
Taiwan Investigates Potential Leak of Classified Documents. Taiwan is investigating a potential leak of official documents posted to the online message board 8kun. The possibly leaked documents include diplomatic cables and a classified “security assessment” on Taiwan’s efforts to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Two Taiwanese officials told Reuters that some parts of the documents are “authentic” while others appear to be forged, adding that it is still unclear where the documents came from. Taiwan’s National Security Bureau (NSB) said it is aware of “suspected government documents” posted online and that all relevant authorities are investigating and are considering China’s potential involvement. Reuters
Australia and U.S. Start Their Largest Joint Military Drills. Australia and the U.S. began two weeks of major war games on Friday. This year’s Talisman Sabre joint military exercises, which are held every two years, will be the largest yet, involving over 30,000 troops and participants from 11 other countries. The drills will take place across Australia and include mock land and air combat, as well as amphibious landings. Germany is participating in the exercises for the first time, sending 210 paratroopers and marines to take part. Observers from India, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand will also be present. U.S. Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro said the drills show China that the U.S. and its allies are “extremely tied by the core values that exist amongst our nations.” Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles added that the exercises show Canberra’s “commitment to working with our international partners to maintain the security and stability of our region.” An Australian defense official says a Chinese ship is currently off Australia’s eastern coast and is expected to shadow the drills. Reuters
Afghan Taliban and China Set to Exploit Vast Lithium Reserves in Afghanistan. The Washington Post is out with a report on how China is seeking to tap into vast lithium reserves in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. The Pentagon has previously assessed that reserves of lithium and other minerals in Afghanistan could be worth $1 trillion, dubbing the country the “Saudi Arabia of lithium.” Demand for the metal is set to exponentially grow due to its use in batteries for electric vehicles. The country’s lithium could provide a key source of revenue to prop up the isolated Taliban, which experts say will naturally gravitate to Chinese companies who are positioning themselves to help mine the lithium. The Taliban have paused lithium mining as it negotiates with potential partners, and even when a deal is struck, it may take years to establish the necessary infrastructure to bring Afghan lithium to market. Despite this delay, China is set to be the main beneficiary due to the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, setting the stage for Beijing to further cement its control of the global supply chain for critical minerals. Washington Post
China Meets With Trade Partners, Foreign Firms on Anti-Espionage Law. China’s commerce ministry said it briefed representatives from major trade partners on China’s new anti-espionage law on Friday. The law expands the scope of espionage activities to “all documents, data, materials and articles” and expands the investigative power of authorities to access all property and electronic devices of suspects. Foreign business leaders say the law heightens risks for business as it is vague about who it deems a suspect of espionage. The measure followed raids on U.S. business consultancies and due diligence firms, all of which business leaders say counters China’s call for foreign investment. The ministry said its officials met with representatives from the U.S., European, Japanese and South Korean chamber of commerce, as well as 30 foreign firms, to address such concerns. Reuters
Middle East and Northern Africa
Russia Says Military Aircraft in Syria Exposed To F-16 ‘Guidance Systems.’ Russian Rear Admiral Oleg Gurinov said Thursday that a Russian military aircraft was exposed to “the guidance systems” of F-16 fighter jets during a routine patrol by the U.S.-led coalition over Syria’s southern border. Gurinov further said that the F-16s “affected” the Russian aircraft with their guidance systems without elaborating. Gurinov also accused the F-16 pilots of violating Syrian airspace several times over the past day. Russia intervened in the Syrian civil war in 2015, supporting the regime of President Bashar Al-Assad, and has expanded its military presence in the country ever since. The U.S. is currently leading a coalition against he Islamic State and has carried out air strikes within Syria this year. Reuters
Cyber and Tech
Senators Propose AI, Social Media-Focused Amendments to Defense Bill. As the Senate this week considers the enormous Defense Department spending bill, a variety of cyber- and tech-related amendments to the legislation have been proposed to address key senatorial concerns, including artificial intelligence and social media governance. Although the majority of amendments never will be brought up for discussion, any that do make their way into the bill will have to be negotiated with the House in a reconciliation stage. The Washington Post interviewed congressional aides, policy advocates, and industry experts to get a sense of what might emerge from the hundreds of draft proposals. Prominent among them is the “manager’s amendment” offered by Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, which includes a provision that federal financial regulators disclose their use of AI as well as the regulatory issues the technology presents; a requirement that the DoD detail in a report how its use of AI tools can improve data sharing and interoperability; and a mandate for DoD to coordinate on AI risk studies with other Federal agencies. Then there are a number of amendments authored by individual senators, including Sen. Michael Bennet’s bill to create an AI task force examining implications of the technology for privacy, civil rights, and civil liberties. Sen. Mark Warner adds a DoD-related requirement that the department release annual reports to Congress on its amount of AI investments and how it determined which projects to fund. Sen. Marco Rubio proposes a joint U.S.-Israeli center to promote AI development countering countries such as China and Iran. Social media governance also attracts a number of legislative proposals such as amendments from Sens. Rubio and Josh Hawley to ban TikTok for U.S. consumers and Sen. Richard Durbin’s amendment already voted out of committee to create the means for victims of child sexual abuse to sue platforms that facilitate exploitation. Sen. Rand Paul has put forward an amendment that would not allow funding from the bill to be used to “direct, coerce, or compel the content moderation decisions” by platforms aimed at “suppressing” speech or labeling it as “misinformation.” Washington Post
Canadian Cyber Chief Concerned Over Criminal Exploitation of AI Advances. Sami Khoury, the head of the Canadian Centre for Cyber Security, says that AI is being used by hackers and propagandists to produce malware, craft persuasive phishing emails, and circulate online disinformation. Khoury told Reuters in an interview that evidence is mounting that cybercriminals are capitalizing on transformational AI technology whose ultimate impact is still unknown. Khoury noted that the usage of AI to create malware is still in its infancy, adding "there's still a way to go because it takes a lot to write a good exploit." A key concern is the pace of AI model development, which complicates assessments of their malicious potential before they are released into widespread use. Reuters
NSA, Cyber Command Nominee Cautions About AI Misuse in Election Season. Lt. Gen. Timothy Haugh, the administration’s nominee to succeed Gen. Paul Nakasone in the “dual hat” role as NSA director and Cyber Command commander, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that generative AI may be used by foreign actors to interfere in the 2024 presidential election. Noting the difference in the forthcoming election cycle created by the latest AI innovation, Haugh said this explains the government’s concern over “foreign use attempting to be part of our electoral process.” Haugh’s testimony is the latest in a series of high-level security officials’ warnings about the potential misuse and threat of generative AI. The Record
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