10:00 AM ET, Friday, July 14, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas
Biden Readies 3000 Reservists for Europe Deployment. U.S President Joe Biden authorized the Pentagon to prepare up to 3,000 additional reserve forces to send to Europe. The reservists would be a part of Operation Atlantic Resolve, the ongoing rotational deployments that aims to bolster NATO’s eastern flank. The order gives the Department of Defense the ability to send more capabilities to support the U.S. European Command, but it is unclear if the reservists will be deployed any time soon. Officials stated that it would be approximately 6 months before the additional troops could arrive. The additional troops would likely work in support areas such as logistics, sustainment, or medical fields like dentistry or healthcare. U.S. troops have been deployed to assist European partners under Operation Atlantic Resolve since 2014. CNN Politico
U.S. House Adopts Hot Button Amendments as Defense Bill Hangs In The Balance. The House of Representatives voted Thursday to include a series of controversial amendments on a massive defense spending bill, which includes wedge issues of abortion policy and transgender health care access, in a move that could imperil the broader legislation. Democrats said they could not support the measure and criticized the move for politicizing what had initially been a bipartisan effort. At stake is a $886 billion piece of legislation that would include a 5.2 % raise for military personnel, launch a U.S. Special Inspector General for Ukraine, and create new cyber programs to counter China and Russia. CNN New York Times
Canada, Turkey Resume Drone Export Talks After Ankara Backs Sweden’s NATO Bid. Canada has resumed talks with Turkey on lifting export controls on drone parts after Turkey gave its approval for Sweden to join NATO. This move is widely seen to be one of the concessions made to Turkey in exchange for its tacit approval of Stockholm’s bid to join the alliance. The decision was followed by a statement from the United States that it would move ahead with the transfer of F-16s to Turkey. Ahead of the NATO summit, a person familiar with negotiations alleged that Turkey asked that Canada’s export controls be rolled into American assurances over F-16s in what was essentially “a package deal.” The resumption of talks by Canada is a potentially significant move for Turkey’s defense industry, as export controls on drone technology – such as optical equipment – would be up for negotiation. Reuters
Western Europe
EU Launches New 400 Million Euro Fund for Ukraine Reconstruction. The EU’s European Investment Bank (EIB) on Thursday launched a new Ukraine Trust Fund, which will provide grants and loans to support Ukraine’s longer-term reconstruction, as well as Ukrainian banks and businesses. The fund is worth 400 million euros, with 16 of the EU’s 32 countries currently contributing. The EIB disbursed 1.7 billion euros last year to support Ukraine’s public services. The World Bank estimates that Ukraine needs $400 billion to cover reconstruction costs over the decade after the war ends. Bloomberg Reuters
Central and Eastern Europe
Pentagon Says Wagner Group Not in Ukraine in Significant Way. Pentagon spokesperson Brigadier General Patrick Ryder on Thursday said that the Wagner Group is not “participating in any significant capacity in support of combat operations in Ukraine.” His comment came over two weeks after the group’s mutiny in Russia, which resulted in a deal that allowed Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin and his fighters to leave for Belarus. It is unclear if the deal is being followed, as Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said that Prigozhin had returned to Russia. And yet there are reports that the group’s recruitment centers have suspended operations and that Wagner units are handing over military equipment to the Russian armed forces. Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov previously said that Wagner units would no longer be allowed to fight in Ukraine, though many remain at bases in Russian-occupied territories. Kyiv Independent New York Times Reuters
Putin Says He Offered Wagner Group Chance to Keep Fighting, Says Group Doesn’t ‘Legally’ Exist. Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed new details about a meeting he had with Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin and 35 Wagner commanders after the mercenary organization’s mutiny at the end of June. In an interview with Russian newspaper Kommersant, Putin said that he offered the Wagner commanders options for them to continue fighting, including an option to serve under senior Wagner figure Andrei Troshev, known by his call sign “Sedoi.” Putin called Troshev the Wagner Group’s “real commander,” adding that while other Wagner leaders appeared to consider serving under him, Prigozhin rejected the idea saying “the boys won’t agree with such a decision.” In the interview, when asked about whether the Wagner Group would be preserved, Putin said that the group “does not exist” as there is “no law on private military organizations,” adding that “legalization” of the group is up to Russia’s State Duma. Putin’s comments cast further doubt on the future of Wagner fighters. CNN New York Times Reuters
Russian Drone Attack Hits Zelensky’s Hometown. Ukrainian officials report that Russia launched a drone strike on the central city of Kryvyi Rih, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s hometown, early Friday. Regional officials say the attack damaged a number of residential and commercial buildings in the city and injured one man. Ukraine’s air force said it downed 16 of 17 Iranian-made Shahed drones that Russia launched in attacks overnight in southern and eastern Ukraine. France 24 Reuters
Russia Says West ‘Sponsoring Nuclear Terrorism’ After Alleged Ukrainian Attack Near Russian Nuclear Power Plant. Russian officials report that a Ukrainian drone hit a residential building in the western Russian town of Kurchatov on Friday. There were no casualties in the reported attack, which targeted the town where the Kursk nuclear power station is located. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russian air defense systems had adequately responded to the threat, but said that the incident shows that Ukraine is still striking targets in Russia. Russia’s state nuclear company Rosatom said security at Russian nuclear power plants is “under control,” including air defense capabilities. Russia’s foreign ministry reacted to the attack by accusing the West of “sponsoring nuclear terrorism by the Kyiv regime.” Russia and Ukraine continue to blame each other for shelling attacks at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine. Al Jazeera Reuters
Ukraine Claims Counteroffensive Gains in South. Ukrainian forces claim to have retaken territory in southern Ukraine. Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar on Thursday said that troops have liberated various villages south of the town of Orikhiv, including settlements such as Novopokrovka, Novodanylivka, and Mala Tokmachka. Maliar added that troops are maintaining the offensive in zones around the cities of Melitopol and Berdiansk. She also said that enemy attacks are slowing slightly, because “our soldiers destroy enemy equipment depots on a daily basis,” adding that Russian forces are “now redeploying units and using all available reserves.” In eastern Ukraine, troops are reportedly advancing south of Bakhmut, but have encountered fortified Russian defenses. Maliar said there is also intense fighting around the cities of Lyman, Marinka, Kupyansk, and Avdiivka. CNN
Ukraine Jails Man Allegedly Tasked by Russia to Destroy Ukrainian Infrastructure. A Ukrainian court on Friday sentenced a man to 10 years in prison after finding him guilty of colluding with Russia to destroy transport infrastructure in Ukraine to disrupt the flow of foreign military aid. Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) said that it detained the man in February before he could carry out his sabotage plot. The agency did not identify the man but said that he has fought with Russian-backed militants in eastern Ukraine. The SBU added that he was tasked by Russian military intelligence to blow up two infrastructure targets in the Rivne region in western Ukraine, where there are key rail and road connections with Poland. Reuters
Asia and Oceania
North Korea Defends Missile Launch to UN Security Council. North Korea made a rare UN appearance on Thursday, defending its recent missile launch to the UN Security Council. The U.S. called for a council meeting in response to Pyongyang’s test of its latest Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile on Wednesday. North Korea's U.N. Ambassador Kim Song told the council that the launch was an exercise of the right to self-defense "to deter dangerous military moves of hostile forces and safeguard the security of our state,” adding that Pyongyang condemns the U.S.-led call for the meeting on the matter. Deputy U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Jeffrey DeLaurentis, told the council that the U.S. has sought to engage with North Korea in an effort to curb its weapons program, but Russia and China have “prevented this council from speaking with one voice,” referencing their support for Pyongyang against further sanctions. China's U.N. Ambassador Zhang Jun told the council that Beijing is working towards denuclearization and a de-escalation of tensions on the Korean peninsula, adding that China has “taken note” of the North’s latest missile launch. Reuters Associated Press
Chinese Top Diplomat Wang Says China-Australia Ties 'Stabilized, Improved.' China’s top diplomat Wang Yi said on Friday that China and Australia’s ties have "stabilized, improved and developed" due to efforts by both nations to manage relations. Wang also expressed hopes that Australia will offer an unprejudiced and fair environment for business so that Chinese enterprises can successfully invest and function in the country. He also added that each nation should show mutual respect, handle disagreements with propriety, and foster a relationship based on equality, understanding, and appreciation. Wang’s comments come after engagement between Australian and Chinese officials, including a visit by Australia’s Trade Minister to Beijing two months ago, to remove trade barriers and de-escalate tensions. Reuters
Solomon Islands Defends Chinese Policing Deal Amid Australian Concerns. The Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare has dismissed concerns that his country’s police agreement with China poses a “threat to the Pacific region peace,” saying that the deal only aims to strengthen the cybersecurity and community policing capabilities of the Pacific island nation’s police force. Sogavare’s office said that the Chinese police deal will only add to, not replace, existing policing support from Australia and New Zealand, explaining that “no one has a monopoly of knowledge” and that the Solomon Islands seeks cooperation with “all partners.” Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong said she had raised Canberra’s concerns over the deal with China’s top diplomat Wang Yi on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Jakarta, where she told reporters that security in the region is “best provided for within the Pacific family.” The West has raised concerns that the policing deal will further China’s security and military influence and ambitions in the region. Solomon Islands opposition have likewise questioned the deal, with opposition leader Matthew Wale noting that “policing is different in democracies than in communist countries” and highlighting that “China's interest will clash with U.S. influence and strategic interests in the region,” leaving the Solomon Islands “right in the middle of it all.” Reuters South China Morning Post Al Jazeera
Japanese Rocket Engine Explodes During Test. An Epsilon S rocket engine exploded at the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) testing site on Friday, but did not injure anyone, according to an authority at Japan's Education, Science and Technology Ministry. The official said that the rocket engine exploded around a minute into the test, and television footage showed a blaze inside of a testing facility before flames blew its roof off. This is the latest in a chain of failures that have dampened Japan’s hopes of becoming a major space power. The Japan Times Reuters
India Launches Rocket to Land Craft on Moon. India’s space agency launched a rocket that aims to land a spacecraft on the moon’s south pole. The Chandrayaan-3 mission launched from India’s main spaceport Sriharikota in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh. If successful, the mission will land a moon vehicle on the lunar surface on August 23 and push India into the position of a major space power. Al Jazeera
Middle East and Northern Africa
Syria Says UN Can Continue Aid to Northwest Syria for Six Months. The Syrian government says it is permitting the UN to continue using a border crossing from Turkey to deliver aid to opposition-held areas in northwest Syria for another six months. However, Damascus said the UN aid deliveries must be “in full cooperation and coordination with the Syrian government.” The move comes after the UN Security Council failed to renew its authorization for the aid operation as council members could not agree on how long to extend the aid route. Russia rejected a nine-month extension, and the U.S., UK and France voted against Russia’s proposal for a six-month extension. Russia and its ally Syria have denounced the UN aid deliveries as a violation of Syrian sovereignty. Al Jazeera
Sub Saharan Africa
ICC Investigating Violence in Sudan’s Darfur Region. The International Criminal Court (ICC) has begun investigating an increase in violence in Sudan’s Darfur district since mid-April, including alleged killings, arson, rape, crimes affecting children, and displacement. Sudan’s army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have been fighting since April 15th. The conflict has displaced more than 3 million people. On Thursday, ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan’s office said that they are tracking allegations “of extrajudicial killings, burning of homes and markets, and looting, in Al Geneina, West Darfur” and the “killing and displacement of civilians in North Darfur and other locations.” Prosecutors are also investigating reports of “sexual and gender-based crimes” and “violence against and affecting children.” Witnesses in el-Geneina, the capital of West Darfur, have also reported assaults by the RSF and Arab militias against non-Arab Masalit people. Al Jazeera Reuters
Cyber and Tech
China Issues Generative AI Regulations Stressing ‘Socialist Values.’ Provisional regulations published Thursday by seven Chinese regulators, including the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC), represent the world’s most detailed rules governing generative AI. The regulations come into effect on August 15 and emphasize “healthy content and core socialist values.” Their scope covers all generative AI content, including text, images, audio, and video although China’s chatbot services, such as Baidu’s Ernie Bot and Alibaba’s Tongyi Qiawen, have not yet been released for public use and are still undergoing trials or limited to business applications. Chinese regulators have described an “inclusive and prudent” approach toward generative AI with a “graded” regulatory framework. The new regulations stipulate that generative AI service providers must abide by “core socialist values” and avoid content that promotes subversion or threatens national security. Other provisions prohibit encouragement of secession or subversion of national and social unity. Similarly, terrorism, extremism, ethnic hatred and discrimination, obscenity, and pornography are outlawed. The new rules require providers of generative AI services to halt operations if they discover users employing AI to produce illegal content on their platforms. Reuters South China Morning Post
Researchers Say Ransomware Payments Rebounding After One-Year Slowdown. Ransomware gangs are hauling in near-record payments in the first half of 2023, according to the research firm Chainalysis. More than $449 million has been extorted from targets, researchers said, although that total is only from cryptocurrency wallets monitored by the firm. Based on six-month results, the ransomware groups are on track to extort nearly $900 million this year, only slightly behind the record haul of $939.9 million in 2021. Eric Jardine, who leads cybercrime research at Chainalysis, said the return of “big game hunting” – targeting of large corporations – is one of the factors contributing to the rebound in ransom payoffs. He added that the dampening effects on cybercrime caused by the Ukraine conflict is dissipating, allowing ransomware attacks to resume prior levels. Chainalysis analysts noted that the overall distribution of ransom payments has shown “higher amounts compared to previous years, resulting in expansion of payments “at both ends of the spectrum.” The Record
AI-Generated Content Contributing to Growth of Online ‘AI Junk’. A new phenomenon is emerging online – the proliferation of AI-generated content that for many observers amounts to a flood of “AI junk.” NewsGuard, which rates news websites, identified 49 fake news websites using AI to generate content. Gordon Crovitz, co-founder of NewsGuard, said that by the end of June, the total had reached 277 sites. He noted that the sites appear to have been created to generate revenues through a Google online advertising network. NewsGuard says generative AI’s ability to automate content creation has resulted in “unreliable artificial intelligence–generated news websites.” One site identified by NewsGuard produced more than 1,200 articles a day. Another trend being observed is AI being used to generate political disinformation content and messaging used by hackers. Zscaler, a cybersecurity firm, said the company expects the technology to be used to create phishing webpages designed to lure users into downloading malware or revealing login credentials. Another outlet, YouTube, is now offering dozens of videos advising on profiting from chatbot technology, especially ChatGPT. According to researchers, much of the video instruction is of questionable value, amounting to “junk content.” YouTube’s owner, Google/Alphabet, said that it seeks to protect search results from spam and manipulative content. Using AI-generated material to influence result rankings violates the company’s spam policies. Wall Street Journal MIT Technology Review
Chinese Use of ‘Chiplet’ Alternative Seen as Key to Semiconductor Strategy. Chiplet technology – the combining of small semiconductors to form a powerful computing capacity – is seen as a key part of China’s tech strategy, especially in the face of U.S. and Western export limits on the most powerful semiconductor technology. According to Reuters, which reviewed hundreds of patents and Chinese government procurement documents, and conducted interviews with Chinese chip experts, China’s push for chiplet technology began two years ago even before the onset of chip export restrictions from the West. An industry observer said the technology “now largely underpins the country’s plans for self-reliance” in semiconductors. The growth in importance of chiplets is reflected in 20 recently-published government policy documents that refer to the technology as part of China’s overall plan for expanded capabilities in advanced technologies. These assessments have all been produced in just the last couple of years. Needham investment analyst Charles Shi said "chiplets have a very special meaning for China given the restrictions on wafer fabrication equipment.” The technology, Shi said, allows Beijing to “still develop 3D stacking or other chiplet technology to work around those restrictions,” adding “that’s the grand strategy, and I think it might even work." China’s leading telecommunications firm, Huawei, has been actively filing chiplet patents. In 2022, Huawei published over 900 chiplet-related patent applications and grants, increasing from 30 in 2017. Some industry analysts believe China’s capabilities in advanced packaging of chiplets “could serve as a sanctions workaround.” The Wall Street Journal reports that in March China released a new domestic standard for chiplets. The China Chiplet League, which was involved in the standard’s development, said it would help the country create a chiplet-technology ecosystem while working with intellectual-property holders at home and abroad. Reuters Wall Street Journal
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