10:00 AM ET, Friday, January 5, 2024
Daily national security briefings aren’t just for the president anymore. The Cipher Brief uses AI partnered with human analysis and expert perspective to keep you up-to-date on national security news from around the world.
Here’s what’s happening now:
THE TOP STORIES
Islamic State claims responsibility for Iran explosions. Islamic State claimed responsibility for twin explosions in Kerman, Iran that killed 84 people, suggesting that the extremist group continues to operate in the region despite efforts to counter it. Islamic State referred to the attack as a "dual martyrdom operation” in which two suicide bombers targeted a commemoration ceremony at the tomb of Major General Qassem Soleimani, an Iranian military leader who was assassinated four years ago in a US drone attack. Islamic State did not specify which of its affiliates was behind the bombing, though analysts suspect its Khorasan affiliate, ISIS-K, which is based in Afghanistan, was responsible. Islamic State’s claim of responsibility came as officials said U.S. intelligence assessments indicated the group was likely behind the attack. Some Iranian leaders initially appeared to blame Israel for the attack, though Western officials doubted this, saying that while Israel has conducted covert operations in Iran, it usually targets specific individuals, like scientists or officials, or sites, like weapons facilities. U.S. officials say it is unlikely that Islamic State sought to frame Israel for the bombings. Reuters New York Times Wall Street Journal Financial Times Bloomberg
Iraq signals plan to end U.S.-led coalition’s mission following strike in Baghdad. The Iraqi government, under Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, is forming a committee to plan the permanent closure of the U.S.-led international coalition's mission in Iraq. This announcement follows a U.S. strike in Baghdad that killed a militia leader, sparking anger among Iran-aligned groups, who demanded the end of the coalition's presence in Iraq. The committee, which will include representatives of the military coalition, aims to set a date to terminate the international coalition's presence. The U.S. has 900 troops in Syria and 2,500 in Iraq, assisting local forces in countering the resurgence of the Islamic State. Iran-aligned militias in the region oppose the U.S. role and hold it partly responsible for various conflicts. Reuters
U.S. strike kills Iran-backed militia leader in Bagdad. The Biden administration conducted a drone strike in Baghdad, targeting and killing Moshtaq Talib Al-Saadi, an Iranian-backed militia leader. This marks the first known targeted killing of such a leader by the Biden administration and is seen as a significant shift in strategy. The strike was described as a self-defense measure in response to ongoing attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria by Iran-backed groups. These attacks had prompted concerns about escalating tensions in the region. The targeted militia leader was associated with Harakat al Nujaba, an Iraqi group backed by Iran, implicated in attacks on American forces in the region. The U.S. has been trying to deter further aggression by such groups but may face continued challenges. The strike has raised debates in Iraq about the American military presence and has been criticized by Iraq's government. Approximately 2,500 U.S. troops are deployed in Iraq, mentoring Iraqi forces against the remnants of the Islamic State. Wall Street Journal New York Times Washington Post
South Korea evacuates islands, conducts live-fire exercise, after North Korean shelling nearby. North Korea fired approximately 200 artillery shells in what it said was a drill near South Korea’s Yeongpyeong and Baengnyeong islands in the Yellow Sea today. The South Korean military said people on the islands were told to evacuate to shelters and that in response to the “provocation,” it conducted a live-fire exercise near the western sea border with North Korea. The military also said the 200 shells fired by North Korea landed on the North Korean side of the maritime border and that no casualties were reported. North Korea later said its firing drill did not threaten South Korea and that it was conducted in response to South Korean military actions in recent days, apparently referring to joint exercises with the U.S. Nikkei Asia Bloomberg Reuters Wall Street Journal
U.S. says Russia using North Korean missiles in Ukraine war. The White House has revealed that Russia used short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) acquired from North Korea in recent strikes against Ukraine, according to newly declassified intelligence. National security spokesperson John Kirby stated that the United States would bring this development to the attention of the United Nations Security Council. Kirby referred to North Korea's arms transfer to Russia as a "significant and concerning escalation" and announced additional sanctions against those involved in facilitating such arms deals. Both Russia and North Korea have denied these allegations but had previously pledged to deepen their military relations. The use of these missiles has drawn condemnation from several countries, including the United Kingdom and South Korea. The SRBMs have a range of about 900 km and are the first known combat use of these North Korean missiles. Reuters Associated Press Bloomberg
ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR
Blinken heads to Middle East in diplomatic push to keep war from spreading. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has embarked on another trip to the Middle East, his fourth since the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said Blinken will travel to Turkey, Jordan, Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Israel and the West Bank. Miller said Blinken will focus on several issues, including humanitarian assistance to Gaza, the need for Israel to do more to lessen tensions in the West Bank, and keeping the Israel-Hamas war from spreading. Bloomberg Washington Post Al Jazeera
Houthi rebels defy U.S. warning with new Red Sea explosion. Houthi militants in Yemen escalated their actions by deploying a one-way unmanned surface vessel (USV) in the Red Sea. This move follows threats from the US and 11 allies of military action against Houthi attacks on vessels in the critical global shipping lane. The US has expressed concerns about the introduction of such a USV for one-way attacks. These developments come amid fears that the Israel-Hamas conflict could expand to involve other nations. Since November 18, there have been 25 attacks on merchant vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, prompting the US to launch Operation Prosperity Guardian to protect commercial traffic in the region. Greece, Denmark, and other countries have also sent warships to the area. The Houthi attacks have disrupted shipping routes, with some vessels being redirected around the Cape of Good Hope instead of using the Suez Canal. The US is calling for an immediate halt to Houthi attacks on commercial shipping. Financial Times Associated Press Bloomberg
Israeli defense minister outlines new phase in Gaza war. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Thursday outlined plans for a new phase in the war in Gaza, saying the military would transition to a more targeted approach in the northern part of the enclave. He said operations would include raids, destruction of tunnels, air and ground strikes, and special forces operations. He indicated operations in the south, focused on eliminating Hamas and rescuing hostages, would continue as they are for as long as necessary. Gallant also discussed his vision for postwar Gaza, under which the region would be run by a Palestinian body but under Israeli security control. He also suggested a multinational task force led by the U.S. and including the European Union and regional partners could assume responsibility for rehabilitating Gaza. Reuters
Gazans face uncertainty amid calls from Israeli officials to leave. Some displaced Palestinians are returning to destroyed homes in some areas of Gaza where Israeli troops are partially withdrawing. However, as they return home, some prominent Israeli officials are suggesting that Gazans should leave the enclave to reduce its population. Far-right members of Israel’s governing coalition have proposed sending displaced Palestinians to Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the European Union, or Chile. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also reportedly urged the U.S. to pressure Egypt into taking Palestinian refugees and is reportedly in talks with the Democratic Republic of Congo to receive “voluntary migration” from Gaza. Neighboring countries, like Jordan and Egypt, and the U.S. have rejected such proposals, which critics warn could amount to forced displacements and ethnic cleansing of Gaza. South Africa has likewise included allegations of forced transfers of Palestinians in its case against Israel at the International Court of Justice alleging “genocide.” Despite calls for their removal, Gazans have expressed determination to stay and rebuild, rejecting the idea of leaving their homes. Washington Post
Families in Gaza search desperately for food and water, wait in long lines for aid. Palestinian families in southern Gaza are struggling to survive amidst the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. Displaced from their homes in the north, they now live in overcrowded conditions, fearing Israeli airstrikes and dealing with shortages of food, water, and medicine. The population of the southern city of Rafah has swelled from 280,000 to over 1 million due to the conflict. Families are crammed into apartment blocks and tents, facing difficulties in accessing clean water and affordable food. Many are dependent on aid from the UN, but even aid distribution is overwhelmed. Health officials warn of the spread of diseases due to overcrowding and poor hygiene, while food prices have soared, leaving many families struggling to feed themselves. Associated Press
ANALYSIS – The ‘CEO’ of Hamas Who Found the Money to Attack Israel. Zaher Jabarin, once a militant running a Hamas cell, now manages a significant financial empire estimated by the U.S. to be worth hundreds of millions of dollars, funding Hamas's operations against Israel. The U.S. imposed sanctions on Jabarin in 2019, citing his role in the financial network aiding Hamas. Despite these designations, funding from various sources has persisted. Jabarin has successfully used financial systems in various countries, including Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, the UAE, Sudan, and Turkey, to establish companies and move money into Gaza for Hamas. He also oversees Hamas's financial ties with Iran and has built relationships with individuals close to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Jabarin's history involves leading a Hamas cell, engaging in violence during the first intifada, and serving prison time, later evolving into a key Hamas financial figure post-release. Wall Street Journal
ANALYSIS – How Iran-Backed Militant Groups Are Widening the Israel-Hamas War. Bloomberg is out with new analysis that examines the growing violence in the Middle East, and the collection of Iran-backed militia groups that are joining the fight. The ongoing war between Israel and Hamas appears to be stoking violence across the region, causing many analysts to express concern of a widening regional conflict. This piece offers an overview of the history between Israel and Iran, and a description of the known militia groups that are known to be linked to Iran. Bloomberg
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
Russia has likely taken control of eastern Ukrainian town of Marinka. Ukrainian military reports suggest that Russian forces have likely taken control of the town of Marinka in eastern Ukraine. Open-source maps and statements from Ukrainian military analysts indicate that Ukrainian troops have retreated to defensive positions outside the town. The apparent loss of Marinka represents Russia’s most significant territorial advance since it took Bakhmut in May, reflecting Moscow's initiative on the battlefield. Analysts predict that Russian forces may now target nearby towns, bringing them closer to capturing the entire Donbas region. While Marinka is not strategically significant since it is ruins from Russian shelling and was not a critical logistics hub for Ukraine, its capture could impact Ukrainian morale, already facing challenges with manpower and ammunition shortages. It also comes just weeks before Ukraine's presidential election, which may influence voter sentiment. The development will also reinforce Russia’s narrative of progress in the war. Regarding wider strategy, the battle for Marinka has highlighted Russia's strategy of bombing areas before deploying ground troops, a tactic that has proven advantageous in urban combat. New York Times
Ukraine considering changes to military mobilization rules. Ukraine is considering new legislation to change army mobilization rules to bolster its forces amid the ongoing conflict with Russia. The changes, subject to parliamentary approval, include sanctions against draft evasion, increasing the mobilization age to 25, and allowing online call-ups. The bill aims to address a decline in volunteer fighters and targets 450,000-500,000 more mobilizations. Sanctions may include suspension of state benefits and services, and restrictions on property operations and vehicle use, fines, and travel restrictions. The legislation proposes demobilization after 36 months of continuous service during martial law, contingent on battlefield conditions and reserve readiness by 2025. Additionally, military registration requirements may extend to citizens abroad, who will need to ensure up-to-date records for consular services. The proposed legislation faces criticism for potential unconstitutionality and public concerns. Reuters
Pentagon says Ukrainian pilots training on F-16s in U.S. expected to finish by end of 2024. A U.S. Defense Department spokesperson said on Thursday that Ukrainian pilots currently training on F-16 fighter jets in the U.S. are expected to complete their training by the end of 2024. The pilots began their training in late October. The spokesperson did not say how far along the pilots are in their training, but said that it will take between five to eight months to complete training, depending on each pilot’s skill level. Belgium earlier confirmed it is sending two F-16s and 50 training personnel to Denmark from March to September to support Ukrainian pilots training there. Ukrainian pilots are also undergoing F-16 training in Romania, France, and the U.K. Some Ukrainian officials estimate that F-16s promised for Ukraine will arrive and be operational by late spring in the best-case scenario, though this remains uncertain. Kyiv Independent
U.S. Army, Britain’s BAE restarting production for M777 howitzer for Ukraine. The U.S. Army is restarting the production of the M777 howitzer due to increased demand, particularly from Ukraine, which has heavily used the weapon to counter Russia’s invasion. The M777 has been praised for its accuracy, ease of repair, and high operational availability while in use in Ukraine. British defense company BAE Systems is set to produce new M777 parts to refurbish guns deployed in Ukraine. The company said it also expects contracts for whole guns with the renewed production. Notably, the last time the M777 was ordered was five years ago, demonstrating how the Ukraine war is reshaping the global armaments industry with increased demand for artillery and other weapons. Other defense companies, such as Rheinmetall and RTX, are likewise restarting production of different products that have been deployed to Ukraine. This resumption in production faces challenges like workforce training, re-engaging supplier bases, and obtaining necessary tooling. Wall Street Journal
State Department says U.S. may not continue Ukraine support at level of 2022, 2023. The U.S. remains committed to supporting Ukraine for "as long as it takes," but the level of support may not continue at the same levels as in 2022 and 2023, according to State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller. The debate over new funding for Ukraine has become a partisan issue in the U.S., with Senate Republicans blocking a $61 billion aid bill for Ukraine in December. President Joe Biden recently stated that the U.S. will support Ukraine for "as long as we can," signaling a shift from his previous commitment to support Ukraine for "as long as it takes." Miller emphasized the goal of helping Ukraine become self-reliant in terms of its military and industrial capabilities. While there is a focus on boosting Ukraine's domestic military industrial capacity, it remains unclear how this would fill the gap left by a potential reduction in U.S. military aid. Kyiv Independent
Russians defect to Ukraine by calling “I want to live” hotline. Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence has been operating a phone hotline for Russian troops who want to defect. A spokesperson for the GUR’s department for prisoners of war said that as of December, over 220 Russian soldiers have surrendered through the hotline and over 1,000 other cases are pending. GUR set up the hotline just three days before Russian President Vladimir Putin’s partial mobilization in September 2022, which mobilized some 300,000 reservists. Since then, the hotline has reportedly received over 26,000 calls via phone and a chatbot on Telegram, and its website has been visited 48 million times. Ukrainian officials say the hotline appeals to Russian troops due to poor treatment from their commanders and have noted that spikes in calls on the hotline have occurred around key events in the war, like Ukraine’s liberation of Kherson city and the leadup to Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Officials added that Russian soldiers who give themselves up through the hotline can provide valuable battlefield intelligence and be used in exchanges with Moscow for Ukrainian prisoners of war. Some soldiers who do not want to return to Russia are also offered the possibility of applying for asylum in Ukraine. Financial Times
Did Ukraine miss an early chance to negotiate peace with Russia? The meeting between Russian and Ukrainian peace delegations in Istanbul on March 29, 2022, has become a point of contention among Ukraine, Western nations, and Russia regarding what was actually agreed upon. Some argue that Ukraine missed an opportunity to end the war, while others see a more complex picture. The first meeting between the two sides occurred on February 28, 2022, in the Belarusian city of Gomel, where Russian negotiators presented a list of demands, which Ukraine perceived as demands for capitulation. In the 19 days leading up to a second round of talks in Istanbul, the battlefield situation shifted dramatically in Ukraine's favor, with Ukrainian forces achieving significant victories. During the Istanbul talks, the issue of Ukrainian NATO membership was a critical point of contention, along with limiting Ukraine's military capabilities and the status of Crimea. The negotiations ultimately did not result in a binding agreement, and the Russian withdrawal from certain areas in Ukraine occurred because of Ukrainian military successes on the ground, rather than a formal agreement in Istanbul. Wall Street Journal
Official: 2,000 trucks waiting in line at Polish border to enter Ukraine. As a result of the ongoing protest and blockade by Polish truckers against the EU's liberalization of transit rules for Ukrainian truckers, around 2,000 trucks are waiting in line to enter Ukraine from Poland. The protest began in November and has blocked four crossings between Poland and Ukraine. Polish truckers argue that the suspension of the permit system has led to a significant increase in Ukrainian goods entering the EU, which they believe is harming business in Poland and Slovakia. However, Ukrainian officials deny these claims. While border crossings from Slovakia and Hungary are not blocked, the protest at the Poland-Ukraine border is expected to continue until February. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has called on the truckers to address their grievances without resorting to border blockades. Kyiv Independent
Russia in negotiations with Algeria, Saudi Arabia, UAE to open Russian cultural centers. Russia is reportedly negotiating with Algeria, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates to establish Russian cultural centers abroad, termed "Russia House” centers. The move is seen as part of a broader diplomatic initiative by Russia to enhance its influence in the Middle East and North Africa. Specific details of the negotiations remain undisclosed. . According to Russian state media, Moscow is also in negotiations to open cultural centers in Brazil, South Africa, Angola, and Mali by 2025. Currently, Russia operates over 80 Russian House centers worldwide. European nations, including the Czech Republic, Ukraine, and Moldova, have criticized Russia for using cultural centers to promote propaganda. Kyiv Independent Institute for the Study of War
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
Asia and Oceania
ANALYSIS – China’s military reshuffle raises questions about combat readiness. China's recent shake-up in its defense establishment, involving the removal of senior military personnel, including two generals in charge of strategic-missile forces, has raised questions about President Xi Jinping's ability to combat corruption in the military and build a modern, combat-ready force. The restructuring most recently included the removal of nine high-ranking People's Liberation Army officers from the national legislature and three top defense-industry executives from their roles as government advisors. It is seen as part of Xi's disciplinary crackdown on corruption and potential disloyalty to ensure long-term military effectiveness. Analysts suggest that China’s arms-development and procurement agency, long considered prone to corruption, is a key target of this campaign. The impact on China's military readiness remains uncertain, with potential effects on personnel appointments and procurement processes and an increased emphasis on “political reliability” in the military possibly affecting operational training. The current developments highlight Xi's efforts to transform China's military into a modern fighting force while consolidating authority and enforcing adherence to his policies. Despite the latest internal changes, China currently continues to maintain a high operational tempo in military activities. Wall Street Journal
Chinese balloons seen as possible warning ahead of Taiwan election. A recent surge in Chinese balloons flying over Taiwan has raised concerns that the flights could potentially be a calculated warning from China to Taiwanese voters ahead of the island’s presidential election. Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense has reported increased sightings of balloons from China since last month, with some flying close to military bases. While the balloons do not pose an immediate military threat, they are seen as part of China's "gray zone" tactics to subtly communicate military strength without direct confrontation. Analysts say the timing of the balloon flights, close to the election, suggests they are a form of intimidation. The election has heightened tensions with China, which is framing the vote as a choice between war and peace. New York Times
U.S. lawmakers consider blacklisting China’s Quectel over possible military ties. Leaders of the U.S. House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, have urged the Biden administration to consider restricting access to capital for Quectel Wireless Solutions Co., a Shanghai-based maker of internet-connection modules, alleging that the company has ties to the Chinese military. Quectel is identified as a "key supplier" for firms listed by the Department of Defense as Chinese military companies. The company produces modules used in various devices, raising concerns about potential data compromise or disruptions. Quectel's president dismissed the accusations, stating that their products are designed for civil use and pose no threat to US national security. The lawmakers have requested a briefing on considering Quectel for finance restrictions. Bloomberg
China closely watching how Russian economy endures sanctions from Ukraine war. China is drawing lessons from Russia's economic performance amid Western sanctions following the Ukraine war. Russia, despite a mild recession, defied economic contraction predictions, diversified economic relations, and found alternative sources for imports and exports. As China pursues both self-reliance and global integration, Russia’s experience under sanctions has shown that Beijing must diversify suppliers, seek indigenous technologies, and expand its domestic market. China and Russia have strengthened ties to combat sanctions, seen in the surge in bilateral trade between the two countries, which exceeded $218.2 billion in 2023. However, China's commitment to further openness to new markets and joining global trade pacts to get support from resource-rich partners remains crucial for its strategic economic and development goals. South China Morning Post
Philippines, China vow more competing patrols, military activities in the South China Sea. The Philippines signaled on Friday that it will conduct more military activities with the U.S. and other countries after China criticized joint U.S.-Philippine patrols in the South China Sea this week. Beijing called the joint maritime activity “provocative” and “irresponsible.” China added that its navy and air force held competing joint patrols in the disputed region. The patrols came after the Philippines said on Wednesday that it would deploy more assets to the Scarborough Shoal, which came after China warned of a “resolute response” to the Philippine Congress approving funding to build a “permanent structure” on the Second Thomas Shoal, which is occupied by Philippine forces. Bloomberg South China Morning Post
China has numerous legal tools to counter Philippines in South China Sea, legal expert argues. Legal expert Fu Kuncheng, who specializes in the South China Sea, suggests that China has several legal options to counter the Philippines in ongoing territorial disputes in the region. Fu said that China could exercise traditional fishing rights within the archipelagic waters of the Philippines, challenge Manila's claim to the Kalayaan group of islands, target the Philippines’ archipelagic baselines that exceed the 125 nautical mile-rule set in the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Seas, and demand open transit passages for Chinese aircraft and ships through the Philippines archipelago. Tensions between China and the Philippines in the region have escalated in recent months. Both sides have increased competing patrols and drills in the area, with the Philippines conducting joint actions with the U.S. South China Morning Post
Pakistan to buy Chinese FC-31 fighter jets. Pakistan is planning to acquire China’s FC-31 Gyrfalcon fifth-generation fighter in the near future, as announced by the head of the Pakistan Air Force, Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu. The acquisition timeline, quantity, and its implications for Pakistan's interest in the Turkish-made Kaan fifth-generation fighter remain unclear. Analysts say that the impact of the acquisition on the military balance with India depends on factors such as the fighter’s level of stealth, operational sensors, and delivery time frames. Experts say China will likely see the sale as significant as it will provide a subsidy that also supports the production of the Chengdu J-20 heavy fifth-gen fighter, while also keeping European and Turkish competitors out of the Pakistan market. However, some analysts expressed concerns about the acquisition plan, such as issues related to training, maintenance, and the country's challenging economic scenario. As alternatives, some experts suggest that existing platforms like JF-17 Block 3, J-10, and F-16s could adequately fulfill air superiority roles, and the need for stealth could be addressed by UAVs for tactical support operations. Defense News
Middle East
OPINION — Lesson of the Strike That Killed Soleimani. Former Commander of CENTCOM and Cipher Brief Expert, General (Ret) Frank McKenzie says that the United States should adopt a more assertive and decisive approach in its dealings with Iran and its proxies in the Middle East. McKenzie says that Iran's strategic decision-making is rational and that it understands the threat of violence and that to establish and maintain deterrence, the United States must demonstrate both the will and capability to respond forcefully to Iranian provocations. He argues that the U.S. has often shown hesitancy and lack of strategic clarity in its responses to Iranian actions, leading to a need for larger and more delayed counterattacks. General McKenzie also highlights the importance of protecting global chokepoints like the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and suggests that avoiding escalation should not be the highest U.S. priority. Instead, the U.S. should prioritize its strategic objectives and demonstrate a willingness to use force when necessary to reset deterrence with Iran. Wall Street Journal
Kuwait appoints new prime minister. Kuwait's ruler has appointed Sheikh Mohammed Sabah Al-Salem Al-Sabah, a 68-year-old with a Harvard University economics doctorate, as the country's new prime minister. Sheikh Mohammed, a former foreign minister and ambassador to the United States, is tasked with forming the first new government under Emir Sheikh Mishaal Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah's leadership. Kuwait, a key US ally and major oil exporter, faces deep-rooted challenges, in part caused by political conflicts between its elected parliament and government appointed by the ruling Al-Sabah family. Bloomberg
Indian commandos retake hijacked vessel in Arabian Sea. Indian Navy commandos have successfully boarded a hijacked Liberian-flagged vessel, MV Lila Norfolk, in the Arabian Sea. The vessel was intercepted by the Indian Navy warship INS Chennai less than a day after it was reported hijacked off Somalia's coast in the North Arabian Sea. The Indian Navy said it is conducting "sanitization" operations on the vessel. At least 15 Indian crew members were on board the ship when it was hijacked. The Indian Navy has increased surveillance in the Arabian Sea following a recent surge in piracy in the region, including the hijacking of commercial ships. Experts attribute the revival of pirate attacks near the Gulf of Aden and Arabian regions to the shift in focus to counter Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. India is not part of the U.S.-led Red Sea naval task force. Reuters Al Jazeera
Africa
Sudan paramilitary leader says he’s committed to cease-fire, but no progress on proposed peace talks. Sudanese paramilitary leader Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemeti, has expressed his commitment to a cease-fire in Sudan's ongoing conflict, despite the absence of progress in peace talks between him and Sudan's military chief Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan. Hemeti, leader of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), met with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in Pretoria and emphasized his commitment to ending hostilities. However, no date or location has been announced for peace talks. The conflict, which began in April, has resulted in over 12,000 deaths, with millions displaced. Despite talk of a cease-fire, the violence continues to escalate, with reports of abuses and looting of humanitarian supplies. The international community is urged to take immediate action to halt the fighting. Associated Press
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
FBI increases cyber staff assigned to U.S. embassies to counter global cybercrime – The FBI is deploying six new cyber assistant legal attaches in U.S. embassies to counteract cybercrime, for a total of 22 cyber-focused agents serving in overseas posts. The new assignments include New Delhi, Rome, and Brasilia. Brian Abellera, the FBI cyber attache in Ottawa, noted that cybercriminals’ “playing field, if you will, is the world.” Beginning in 2011, the FBI assigned cyber attaches to Romania, Australia, the Netherlands, Estonia, Ukraine and Canada. The postings are part of a broad FBI and Justice Department program to aggressively pursue cybercriminals and their infrastructure and has led in recent years to major multinational takedowns of cybercriminal operations. In the future, Abellera said his focus will shift to combating ransomware operations targeting cross-border critical infrastructure, a joint interest of law enforcement and intelligence operations. Abellera underscored the importance of cyber attaches working with international partners, noting “we need them, and that’s why this program is of paramount importance.” CyberScoop
NIST identifies four key cyberattack tactics against AI systems – The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has identified four key cyberattacks that can be used to manipulate AI system behavior through the inclusion of untrustworthy data. In a new report, NIST describes several malicious cyber tactics, including an “evasion” attack where a threat actor seeks to distort AI decision-making, such as altering road markings to cause an autonomous vehicle to veer off course. NIST computer scientist Apostol Vassilev, one of the report’s co-authors, said the AI sector needs to develop better defenses against such malicious actions, noting that existing systems “lack robust assurances that fully mitigate the risks.” In addition to the evasion tactic, NIST also describes cyberattack schemes involving data poisoning during model training, privacy intrusions, and data abuse, inserting false information into AI models to alter outcomes or manipulate functions. Alina Oprea, another report co-author, noted the ease with which such attacks can be carried out since they “require minimum knowledge of the AI system and limited adversarial capabilities.” Cybernews
Maxar to provide Indo-Pacific imagery to NGA. The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) has awarded Maxar Intelligence a contract to provide space imagery covering the Indo-Pacific region. The Colorado-based company will deliver highly accurate and detailed 3D models through its Precision3D Data Suite, covering 160,000 square kilometers within the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command's area of responsibility. This data will enhance situational awareness and decision-making for NGA's military and civilian agencies. The contract's value has not been disclosed, and the move reflects NGA's growing partnership with industry and the use of unclassified commercial geospatial data for national security. Maxar Intelligence reorganized after its acquisition by Advent International last May. Defense News
Hackers employ stealthy data transfer tool in cyber campaign on Ukrainian targets – An unaffiliated hacking group conducting cyberespionage operations against Ukrainian targets has made increasing use of the Remcos remote surveillance tool in attacks on government agencies. The Uptycs cybersecurity firm reports that a group tracked as UAC-0050 is using a new method that avoids detection while effectively transferring malicious data. The group creates “pipes” within Windows operation systems that act as covert channels for data transfer, which Uptycs describes as “a significant leap in the sophistication of the group’s strategies.” In early December, UAC-0050 used phishing letters masquerading as requests from the Ukrainian SBU security service and the Ukrainian telecommunications firm, Kyivstar, which was recently targeted in a cyberattack. Uptycs discovered a similar campaign in December in which the hacking group distributed emails posing as job offers to Ukrainian military personnel to consult with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). The Record
China to build nationwide computing power mega project. China aims to launch a nationwide computing power mega project by next year, consolidating regional hubs into a pool of general-purpose, intelligent, and supercomputing resources. The initiative, driven by the National Data Administration (NDA), seeks to address regional imbalances in digital resources between prosperous eastern areas and energy-rich western regions. The project, aligned with the "Eastern Data and Western Computing" initiative, aims to narrow China’s computing power gap with the West and enhance technological prowess by fostering better synergy between regions, governments, and companies. Key agencies will collaborate on the project, including the National Development and Reform Commission, NDA, Cyberspace Administration of China, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), and National Energy Administration. China, in competition with the US for hi-tech dominance, is focusing on boosting computing power in the digital economy and large language model development. China ranked second globally in computing power as of 2022 and has an exaflop target of over 300 by 2025, intending to surpass the U.S. South China Morning Post
China unveils new artificial intelligence guidelines for scientists and bans use in funding applications. China's Ministry of Science and Technology has released new guidelines on the use of generative artificial intelligence (AI) in scientific research, including a ban on the "direct" use of the technology when applying for research funding and approval. The guidelines aim to promote the healthy development of scientific research and cover various aspects of the research process, including topic selection and peer review, with ethics, safety, and transparency being key considerations. Generative AI can still be used in research, but any content or findings that use the technology must be clearly labeled as such. The move comes amid concerns about the authorship of AI-generated content and its impact on research practices. South China Morning Post
The data cutoff for this product was 8:00 a.m. E.T.
Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Katharine Campbell, Leighton Durham, and Ryan Simons contributed to this report.
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