10:00 AM ET, Friday, January 12, 2024
Daily national security briefings aren’t just for the president anymore. The Cipher Brief uses AI partnered with human analysis and expert perspective to keep you up-to-date on national security news from around the world.
Here’s what’s happening now:
THE TOP STORIES
U.S. and British militaries launch retaliatory strikes against Yemen’s Houthis. (In Israel-Hamas War)
Pentagon releases National Defense Industrial Strategy. (In The Americas)
China reiterates warning against U.S. delegation to Taiwan immediately after election. (In Asia and Oceania)
Chinese private firm launches world’s most powerful solid-fuel rocket. (In The Cyber and Tech Rundown)
E.U. reportedly preparing concessions to Hungary for Ukraine aid support. (In The Ukraine Update)
ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR
U.S. and British militaries launch retaliatory strikes against Yemen’s Houthis. The U.S. and U.K. launched airstrikes against over a dozen sites used by the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen on Thursday, in retaliation for Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Officials said targets included logistical hubs, air defense systems and weapons storage locations used by the Houthis. The strikes mark the first U.S. military response against the Houthis for their Red Sea attacks, which the militant group says are in response to Israeli military actions in Gaza. The U.S. and its partners warned the Houthis against further attacks a week ago. Attacks stopped for several days, but resumed on Tuesday when the Houthis launched their largest-ever drone and missile attack against shipping in the region. The Houthis have said that any U.S. attack will be met with a military response. Associated Press Reuters Wall Street Journal Washington Post NY Times
Houthis say U.S.-led strikes won’t deter them. The Supreme Political Council of the Houthis issued a statement today saying U.S.-led strikes have failed to cause significant damage and that the Houthis will not been deterred from launching more attacks against U.S. and other targets in the Red Sea region. The Houthi statement said U.S.-led forces had conducted 73 strikes, killing five and injuring six. The Houthis also said all American and British interests are legitimate targets “in response to the aggression.” Wall Street Journal
Mixed Global Reaction to US-UK Strikes in Yemen. The U.S. and UK airstrikes against Houthi militants in Yemen, conducted in response to Houthi attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea amid Israel's military campaign in Gaza, received mixed international reactions. A joint statement from the governments of Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, South Korea, the United Kingdom and the United States expressed support for defending maritime freedom of navigation and mariners' lives. Russia has reportedly called for an urgent UN Security Council meeting, Iran condemned the strikes as a violation of Yemen's sovereignty, and Saudi Arabia expressed concern about escalation while pursuing peace talks with the Houthis. Oman's foreign minister is urging restraint and a ceasefire in Gaza. Washington Post
Shipping Companies Advised to Avoid Key Maritime Trade Route after Airstrikes. The global shipping industry has been advised to temporarily avoid the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key maritime trade route linking Asia to Europe, following US and UK airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. The Combined Maritime Forces, representing 39 navies, issued the advisory after more than 60 airstrikes aimed at curbing Iran-backed attacks in the southern Red Sea. The Houthi attacks have mainly targeted container ships, causing a rerouting of trade. This advisory could potentially close off the Suez Canal as an option for vessels traveling between Asia and Europe if strictly adhered to. Bloomberg
Blinken says path to Palestinian state could stabilize region, isolate Iran. As he concluded his latest visit to the Middle East yesterday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that offering Palestinians a path to statehood could stabilize the Middle East and isolate Iran. Blinken told reporters following a meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi that the region faces two paths, one of which is a secure Israel with commitments to that security from countries in the region as well as the U.S. and “at least a pathway” to a Palestinian state. The other path, Blinken said, is “to continue to see the terrorism, the nihilism, the destruction” by Hamas, the Houthis and Hezbollah, “all backed by Iran.” Heading back to the U.S., Blinken expressed optimism, saying U.S. partners in the Middle East are ready to take steps toward long-term stability and that they are ready to focus on what governance and security in Gaza might look like when the war is over. He said that among “a number of concrete steps forward” is a commitment by the Palestinian Authority to pursue meaningful reform. Al Jazeera New York Times Bloomberg
White House envoy says Lebanon, Israel ‘prefer’ diplomatic solution to border tensions. Both Lebanon and Israel "prefer" a diplomatic solution to end tensions along their shared border, according to Amos Hochstein, a United States envoy. Hochstein met with Lebanese officials in Beirut and discussed the need for a diplomatic solution that would allow people on both sides to return to their homes safely. The tensions along the border have escalated amid Israel's ongoing conflict with Gaza. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati suggested that a potential deal might be linked to ending the Gaza conflict. Washington is concerned about the regional implications of the border tensions. Al Jazeera Times of Israel
Israel faces genocide case at World Court. South Africa’s case accusing Israel of committing genocide in Gaza is underway at the International Court of Justice. South African lawyers presented their case yesterday, with attorney Tembeka Ngcukaitobi saying Israel’s “intent to destroy Gaza has been nurtured at the highest level of state.” The Israeli side responded by saying South Africa presented a “distorted factual and legal picture” and that South Africa has close ties with Hamas, undermining the credibility of its claims. Israeli lawyers argued that Hamas was responsible for starting the war and that Hamas embeds itself in civilian areas, worsening the casualty toll while Israel tries to minimize civilian harm. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said yesterday that “the hypocrisy of South Africa screams to the heavens” as South Africa has failed to respond to atrocities in Syria and Yemen committed by “partners of Hamas.” The White House declined to comment on how it might respond if the court rules that Israel committed genocide, but National Security Council spokesman John Kirby called the allegations “unfounded” and said Israel is defending itself against “a still viable threat.” Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi expressed support for South Africa’s case and said Jordan is ready to submit legal documents and appear in court if the case proceeds. Safadi said Israeli “war crimes” against Palestinians are to blame for increased regional tensions and violence in the Red Sea. BBC Wall Street Journal Reuters Associated Press Al Jazeera Reuters New York Times
France participating in U.S.-led Red Sea naval mission, but focusing on own ships. French forces are patrolling the Red Sea under Operation Prosperity Guardian, a U.S.-led mission to protect ships in the area from Houthi attacks. However, participating French forces remain under national command to maintain independent decision-making and are prioritizing protection of French-linked vessels. Direct strikes on the Houthis are not in the scope of the French mission. France is engaged in real time intelligence sharing with other taskforce partners to avoid duplicating operations. Reuters
French navy defends use of million-euro missiles to down Houthi drones. France's maritime commander for the Indian Ocean, Vice Admiral Emmanuel Slaars, defended the use of Aster 15 missiles to counter drone threats posed by Yemen's Houthi rebels in the Red Sea. France’s Languedoc frigate, patrolling in the southern Red Sea, shot down drones using these missiles, each estimated to cost around €1 million ($1.1 million). Use of the costly missiles to target inexpensive drones has come under scrutiny. Slaars argued that using the missiles best ensures the protection of lives and assets. He noted that some Houthi drones are “quite sophisticated” and need to be targeted by the advanced missiles and that the downing of more basic drones, such as reconnaissance drones, can be helpful in preventing more lethal attacks. Defense News
ANALYSIS- Seeking cash, Hamas turns to allies experienced in ‘financial jihad’- The Washington Post is out with a new report that says following the Hamas terrorist attack against Israel on October 7, Hamas leader Khaled Mashal issued a called for "financial jihad" to support their conflict with Israel. This reportedly led to a surge in crowdfunding campaigns on social media, generating millions of dollars for Gaza. However, alongside legitimate donations, groups with ties to militant Islamist causes, including those previously accused of supporting al-Qaeda and the Taliban, participated in these fundraising efforts. These old networks, operating across the Middle East and Europe, harnessed the emotional impact of the conflict's images. Israel estimated that around $200 million was raised, some of which went to Hamas-controlled accounts. Hamas, facing challenges in collecting taxes and foreign support due to travel bans and banking restrictions, turned to crowdfunding. They also utilized cryptocurrency and informal banking networks like Hawala to move funds. Efforts are underway to block Hamas's access to foreign bank accounts while permitting legitimate relief organizations to operate. Israel targeted key Hamas figures involved in fundraising and informal exchanges in recent operations. Washington Post
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
E.U. reportedly preparing concessions to Hungary for Ukraine aid support. The European Commission is reportedly offering concessions to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to secure his approval for a four-year €50 billion ($55 billion) aid deal for Ukraine. The E.U. is set to revisit the support package at a special summit on February 1. Hungary was the lone dissenting voice against the aid in December. The potential concessions might involve annual audits and an "emergency brake" clause. The European Commission is also reportedly open to allowing Orban to stop the funding agreement in 2025 in exchange for his approval now, as well as institute annual renewal of the aid, which could allow Hungary to receive new concessions from the E.U. each year for its support. It remains uncertain whether these offers will persuade Orban, who has also previously blocked sanctions against Russia. Financial Times Kyiv Independent
Ukrainian commander says eastern front difficult, Russian on offensive in three directions. The situation on Ukraine's eastern front remains challenging as Russian forces persist in offensive operations in the Kupiansk, Lyman, and Bakhmut directions, according to Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of Ukraine’s ground forces. He said in the Kupiansk sector, Russia aims to cut take the city of Synkivka to cut off and recapture Kupiansk, a city liberated from occupation in autumn 2022. The Institute for the Study of War suggests that Russia might intensify localized attacks with fresh troops in the Kupiansk sector in the coming weeks. Syrskyi emphasized that Ukrainian troops are holding defensive lines and inflicting significant losses on Russia forces. Kyiv Independent
Britain’s Sunak visits Ukraine to offer support. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak visited Kyiv on Friday, where he announced an additional $3 billion in military aid for Ukraine, much of which will go to drone procurement, and signed documents establishing bilateral security guarantees between the U.K. and Ukraine. The UK-Ukraine Agreement on Security Cooperation commits the UK to consult and provide swift assistance if Ukraine is attacked by Russia again. It includes intelligence sharing, cybersecurity, medical and military training, and defense industrial cooperation. This move reinforces the UK's support for Ukraine amid increased Russian aggression. Sunak's visit aligns with Western commitments to bolster Ukraine's defense, contrasting with challenges in the U.S. Congress and Hungary's stance in the European Union. Washington Post New York Times Reuters
Ukraine's Zelenskiy says a ceasefire would only benefit Russia. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, speaking in the Estonian capital Tallinn, said that a ceasefire in Russia's war against Ukraine would not lead to political dialogue and would only benefit Moscow. He emphasized that any pause could risk allowing Russia to re-group and boost its supply of munitions. Zelenskiy says that Ukraine has no plans for a pause and also predicted that Russia is preparing to launch an offensive ahead of the presidential election in March. He added that Ukraine is in desperate need of additional weapons and financial support from its Western allies. Reuters
Russian forces' operational rotations will likely sustain offensive tempo in eastern Ukraine. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Russia's capacity for operational rotations is likely to sustains the current pace of localized offensives in eastern Ukraine. However, it remains uncertain whether Russian forces can maintain effective rotations over the long term or in the face of intensified offensive efforts or a significant Ukrainian counteroffensive operation. Russian forces rely on infantry-heavy assaults, often using poorly trained personnel, which have resulted in only marginal gains in Ukraine. The ISW suggests that these tactics may not lead to significant operational successes for Russia over time. ISW Kyiv Independent
World Bank’s IFC commits $1 billion towards Ukraine’s reconstruction. The International Finance Corporation (IFC), the private sector arm of the World Bank Group, says it has ‘mobilized’ $1 billion to help rebuild Ukraine’s private sector. The group says that approximately $620 million will come directly from IJC’s balance sheet, with the remaining $360 million from external financing. The IJC notes that a key consideration is providing guarantees to private financing, to give investors confidence to deploy capital into Ukraine amid its ongoig war with Russia. The IJC is also exploring investments in African renewable energy projects and may also invest in offshore wind capacity and distribution generation. It is also looking into assisting with the reconstruction of Palestinian territories after periods of conflict. The IFC aims to increase equity investments, particularly in Africa's productive sector, as part of its broader investment focus. In its 2023 annual report, loans constituted 71% of the IFC's portfolio exposure, while equity made up 21%, with guarantees and other products comprising the remainder. Kyiv Independent Reuters
Cold weather to impact Ukraine fighting conditions. The British Ministry of Defense reports that Ukraine is currently experiencing a cold snap leading to low ground temperatures. As the ground freezes, conditions for cross-country movement will improve through January and February. As the ground thaws in March, cross-country movement will become more difficult. An increase in snow cover will also lessen maneuverability. Shortening daylight hours will also make fighting more difficult, forcing both Ukrainian and Russian troops to rely more on night-vision and cold weather equipment. UK Ministry of Defense X
Ukraine to submit revised mobilization bill after criticism. Ukraine's controversial draft law to tighten mobilization rules, aimed at increasing the army's manpower amid the ongoing conflict with Russia, has been withdrawn from parliament. The initial draft called for electronic call-ups and sanctions on those evading mobilization. It faced criticism for potential constitutional violations and corruption risks. A new version, prepared by the Defense Ministry, is under government review. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had earlier suggested mobilizing an additional 450,000-500,000 people. The mobilization law requires parliamentary approval and President Zelensky's signature. Reuters
Pentagon finds over $1 billion of U.S. military aid for Ukraine poorly tracked. A Pentagon report reveals that over $1 billion worth of U.S. military aid, including shoulder-fired missiles, kamikaze drones, and night-vision goggles, sent to Ukraine has not been adequately tracked, raising concerns about potential theft or smuggling. The report from the Defense Department's inspector general points out the lack of quick or full accounting for nearly 40,000 weapons, making them attractive to arms smugglers. While there is no evidence of misuse, the findings may impact congressional decisions on additional military aid to Ukraine. The report suggests challenges in tracking sensitive military equipment during dynamic and hostile wartime conditions. New York Times Financial Times Reuters Kyiv Independent Bloomberg
Russia imports a third of battlefield tech from western companies. Russia sourced at least one-third of its foreign critical battlefield components, worth $7.3 billion, from companies based in the U.S. and its allies last year. An analysis by the Kyiv School of Economics reveals that these goods were mainly manufactured in countries that are not part of the US-led export-control coalition, with China accounting for the largest share at $1.9 billion. The analysis suggests a rise in Russia’s imports of products from Western products and highlights the role of outsourced production in making it easier for Russia to acquire controlled goods from countries with weaker export controls. The data also underscores China's critical role in Russia's supply networks. The US has signaled its intention to target institutions involved in facilitating such trade. The US, with its "foreign-direct product regulations," has extraterritorial controls covering goods made in third countries, including those produced by its allies. However, experts say applying these regulations due to difficult enforcement environments abroad. Financial Times
Russia’s Medvedev warns of nuclear response to Ukrainian attacks on missile launch sites. Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council and a senior ally of President Vladimir Putin, warned that any Ukrainian attacks on missile launch sites inside Russia with arms supplied by the U.S. and its allies could lead to a nuclear response from Moscow. Medvedev highlighted conditions outlined in Russia's 2020 nuclear doctrine, specifically point "g" of paragraph nineteen, which deals with a nuclear response to a conventional weapons attack. Medvedev's threats add to Russian nuclear rhetoric in response to Western support of Ukraine. Reuters
Latvia announces new military aid for Ukraine. Latvia's President Edgars Rinkevics announced a new military aid package for Ukraine, including howitzers, drones, munitions, and more. During a joint press conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Rinkevics reiterated Latvia's commitment to supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression, dedicating over 1% of its GDP to military assistance for Kyiv. Additionally, Latvia's parliament voted to provide over 500 million euros for Ukraine's reconstruction over the next three years, focusing on Chernihiv Oblast. Zelensky’s stop in Latvia concluded his Baltic tour, which included visits to Lithuania and Estonia, which also pledged further long-term assistance. Kyiv Independent Ukrinform
Estonian military robot maker weighs production in Ukraine. Estonian company Milrem Robotics is considering producing its unmanned platforms in Ukraine, where it has signed a cooperation agreement with local firms for this purpose. The move may pose a challenge for Milrem's Emirati owners due to the UAE's ties with Russia. Milrem has already delivered 15 THeMIS unmanned vehicles to Ukraine's forces, which have been performing well in demining and cargo transport missions. Decisions regarding production in Ukraine would likely require approval from Abu Dhabi, the Emirati defense conglomerate Edge Group. The UAE has maintained a neutral stance publicly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict while maintaining strong ties with Russia. Defense News
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
The Americas
Pentagon releases National Defense Industrial Strategy. The Pentagon released a National Defense Industrial Strategy, aiming to increase weapons production and stockpiles. Drawing lessons from conflicts, including Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the strategy suggests tax breaks, regulatory relief, and long-term contracts for defense contractors to incentivize higher production of a diverse array of weaponry, from hypersonic weapons to cyber tools. The strategy highlights the need for spare production capacity and advocates for "destigmatizing" blue-collar jobs, engaging non-traditional industry partners, and investing in spare production capacity. It also addresses challenges in rapidly replacing weapons, calling for more flexible and streamlined acquisition. The strategy also emphasizes cooperation with allies to enhance global production capabilities. Increased production, coupled with proposed incentives, could benefit top defense contractors like Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman, and L3 Harris Technologies, all of whom are already reporting strong earnings. Bloomberg Breaking Defense Defense News Reuters Wall Street Journal
U.S. and Indo-Pacific partners to strengthen coordination of defense supply chains. The U.S. plans to explore a multilateral defense industry arrangement in the Indo-Pacific to address challenges posed by China's increased production capacity, according to the Pentagon's National Defense Industry Strategy. The strategy aims to deepen defense industry cooperation in the Indo-Pacific through a consultation group with allies and partners. It draws lessons from the U.S.-led initiative to arm Ukraine after Russia's invasion in 2022 and emphasizes the need for proactive engagement to build relationships before a crisis occurs. The strategy also focuses on reducing reliance on adversaries for critical minerals, promoting "friendshoring" with reliable allies, and advancing Security of Supply Arrangements (SOSAs) to prioritize critical components during emergencies. The Pentagon is particularly concerned about China's dominance in critical markets and seeks to enhance the resiliency of supply chain networks. Nikkei Asia
Pentagon Inspector General to probe Austin hospitalization. The Pentagon's inspector general is launching an investigation into Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's hospitalization and the lack of transparency regarding his condition. Austin was hospitalized due to complications from prostate surgery, and the investigation will examine whether Pentagon procedures ensure timely and appropriate notifications when senior leaders fall ill or become unavailable. The lack of transparency has drawn criticism from Congress, with lawmakers demanding answers from Austin and other Pentagon officials. President Biden has expressed support for Austin, but the investigation and congressional pressure may continue to raise questions about the handling of the situation. Bloomberg Wall Street Journal
Canada, China agree to address ‘difficult situation’ in relations. China and Canada expressed the intention to address what Beijing called the "current difficult situation" in their strained bilateral relations. China's foreign minister Wang Yi told his Canadian counterpart Melanie Joly in a phone call that Beijing sees the tension as a result of Canada's misperception of China. Both sides highlighted the importance of open communication despite recent challenges. Canada said that Joly offered areas for cooperation, including fighting climate change and strengthening economic ties. Beyond bilateral relations, Wang and Joly discussed global and regional issues, such as the Israel-Hamas conflict, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and Indo-Pacific challenges. Sino-Canadian relations soured in 2023, with accusations of Chinese interference in Canadian elections, tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions, and Beijing’s claim that a Canadian military plane violated Chinese sovereignty. Reuters South China Morning Post
US sending general, top State Department officials to Ecuador amid gang violence. The United States will send top military, State Department, and law enforcement officials to Ecuador to offer assistance in combating a terror campaign by powerful narco gangs. The U.S. delegation includes General Laura Richardson, head of US Southern Command; Assistant Secretary of State Todd Robinson of the Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement and Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs Deputy Assistant Secretary Kevin Sullivan.. The delegation aims to explore ways to work more effectively with Ecuador to confront the threat posed by narco-criminal elements. Violence escalated after two drug kingpins escaped from prison. Gangs have since targeted civilians and taken prison guards hostage. Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa said the gangs will be treated as “terrorists” and outlined plans for two new high-security prisons as part of efforts to counter them. Bloomberg Reuters
Guyana US has not requested military base amid territorial dispute with Venezuela. Guyana's Attorney General, Anil Nandlall, assured Venezuela that there are no plans for the U.S. to establish a military base in Guyana and that no formal request for one has been made. This comes after U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Daniel P. Erikson visited Guyana amid tensions over the disputed Essequibo region, which Venezuela claims the region as its own. Erikson visited Guyana after the country requested help from the U.S. to improve its defensive capabilities. Despite both Guyana and Venezuela agreeing to refrain from using force on the Essequibo issue, the territorial dispute continues. Associated Press
Asia and Oceania
Taiwan detects more Chinese balloons, military aircraft ahead of election. Taiwan's defense ministry said on Friday it detected five Chinese balloons flying over the Taiwan Strait over the past 24 hours, one of which crossed the island, the latest balloons spotted around Taiwan over the last month. The ministry also said it tracked 10 Chinese military aircraft near Taiwan, two of which crossed the Taiwan Strait’s unofficial median line or entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone. Six Chinese naval vessels were also seen near the island. The ministry has described such activities as efforts to wage psychological warfare to influence Taiwan’s people, especially ahead of the island’s key elections on Saturday. Reuters Taiwan News
Blinken set to meet top Chinese official before Taiwan elections. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to meet with senior Chinese official Liu Jianchao in Washington, a day before Taiwan's elections. The talks aim to help stabilize U.S.-China relations amid tensions. Liu, head of the Chinese Communist Party's international department, also met with White House deputy national security adviser Jon Finer and held discussions with U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo. The meetings come as Taiwan accuses China of seeking to interfere with its elections on Saturday. Washington has warned against Chinese interference and stressed that any military escalation would be initiated by Beijing. Reuters South China Morning Post
China reiterates warning against U.S. delegation to Taiwan immediately after election. China warned the U.S. against sending an unofficial delegation to Taiwan after the island’s presidential election, stating it would send the "wrong signals" to supporters of Taiwan's independence. China’s foreign ministry urged the U.S. to honor its commitments and stop interfering in Taiwan's elections. A senior U.S. official had earlier mentioned plans for an unofficial delegation to Taiwan after the election and asserted that any additional military pressure or coercion around the vote would be initiated by China. U.S. officials have said the unofficial delegation’s visit would be a show of support for Taiwan’s democracy, though critics say it will anger Beijing and complicate efforts to stabilize Sino-U.S. relations.South China Morning Post
Taiwan VP Lai ‘plays safe’ to garner Tsai supporters’ votes. Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate, Lai Ching-te, is strengthening his campaign by aligning closely with incumbent Tsai Ing-wen in the final stretch of the presidential election. A video showing Tsai passing the metaphorical baton to Lai has garnered significant support. Despite facing criticism over his family home and economic concerns, Lai maintains a lead in the polls. Observers are expecting a close race. Lai emphasizes sovereignty, security, and democratic values, aligning with the US stance. South China Morning Post
Taiwan opposition presidential candidate rules out unification talks with China. Taiwan's Kuomintang (KMT) presidential candidate, Hou Yu-ih, has ruled out unification talks with China if elected, underscoring the ongoing cross-Strait dispute. While attributing some responsibility to the ruling Democratic Progressive Party for increased tensions, Hou pledged not to address unification during his term and prioritized strengthening Taiwan's defenses. Hou's rejection of unification talks followed controversial statements by KMT elder Ma Ying-jeou, who suggested defending Taiwan against China was hopeless. China's Taiwan Affairs Office warned against supporting the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's candidate, Lai Ching-te, emphasizing the "extreme danger" of the party's independence line and its potential impact on cross-Strait relations. Financial Times
Taiwan presidential candidate calls U.S. Most ‘Important Ally’. Taiwan's “wild card” presidential candidate, Ko Wen-je, emphasized the U.S. as Taiwan's “most important ally,” pledging to sustain resilient ties with Washington if he wins the election. Ko, representing the Taiwan People's Party, stressed the importance of Taiwan's relations with the U.S. regardless of the new president, while expressing intentions to adjust how the government engages with China. Ko, a former surgeon and Taipei mayor, criticized President Tsai Ing-wen's dealings with Beijing, emphasizing the need for dialogue with China but remaining non-committal about accepting the Chinese Communist Party's conditions for such engagement. Ko's party has garnered support from voters discontented with the ruling Democratic Progressive Party. Bloomberg
Taiwan expects China to apply pressure on incoming government after election. Taiwan's government anticipates increased pressure from China, including potential military maneuvers, following the island’s election on Saturday. Chinese pressure on Taiwan's incoming president is expected, regardless of the winner. Chinese military drills near the island are likely after March due to favorable weather conditions. Beijing is also expected to call any new Taiwan administration a “minority government.” Taiwan also expects China to invite pro-Beijing politicians, conduct disinformation campaigns, and undermine confidence in the new government. China denies interference allegations, calling them "dirty tricks” of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party to win votes, though Beijing has framed the vote as a choice between peace and war. Experts say that the election demonstrates Taiwan’s vibrant democracy, underscoring difficulties Chinese President Xi Jinping will face if he seeks to annex the island into his authoritarian state. Reuters Bloomberg
E.U. largely silent on Taiwan elections. The upcoming Taiwan presidential election is receiving little attention in Brussels, with Europe largely silent on the matter due to the divisive nature of the Taiwan issue within the European Union (EU). The EU is wary of offending China and is likely to issue a statement post-election to maintain the status quo in cross-strait tensions. While Taiwan is not a top priority for the EU, the issue has gained visibility, and some suggest that Europe should take more concrete policy measures to support Taiwan, especially if the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) wins the election. Fear of economic retaliation from Beijing remains a key factor influencing EU policy. South China Morning Post
China report lists 5 top global risks, says U.S. responsible for most. A report from the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), which comes under China’s Ministry of State Security, warns that hi-tech constraints, geopolitical moves, and supply chain actions by the US, along with its presidential election, pose "prominent risks" to the world in 2024. The report identifies five top risks, with two attributed directly to the US, including an "intelligence gap" created by the US, which "views intelligence superiority as a key variable in consolidating its hegemony." The report also warns of potential systemic problems facing the world economy, "weaponisation" of economic issues, and a fragmented global governance due to various actions by the US. South China Morning Post
U.S. imposes sanctions over North Korean transfer of ballistic missiles to Russia. The U.S. sanctioned three Russian entities and one individual linked to the transfer and testing of North Korean ballistic missiles sent to Russia for use against Ukraine. This action came after the U.S. and its partners condemned arms transfers between North Korea and Russia. The U.S. and Ukraine also accused Russia of using North Korean missiles in recent strikes on Ukraine. Moscow and Pyongyang have denied accusations that they have agreed to arms deals, though they have strengthened ties amid the Ukraine war. Reuters Jerusalem Post Kyiv Independent
Japan launches intelligence-gathering satellite to monitor North Korean missiles. Japan successfully launched a rocket carrying an optical satellite for government intelligence-gathering purposes. The H2A rocket, launched by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, lifted off from the Tanegashima Space Center in southwestern Japan. The Optical-8 satellite will be used to monitor military sites in North Korea and improve responses to natural disasters. The successful launch is seen as crucial for Japan's information-gathering capabilities. Japan aims to set up a network of 10 satellites, including those with radar capabilities for night and severe weather operations, to enhance its early warning system for possible missile launches from North Korea. Associated Press
North Korea to allow first tourist visits after around four years. North Korea is set to welcome its first group of tourists since the pandemic-induced border closure in 2020. A Russian tourist group is expected to visit in February, organized by the government of Russia's Primorsky Krai region and a Vladivostok-based travel agency. The four-day trip, starting on February 9, will include visits to Pyongyang and a ski resort. This development may signal a potential reopening to other tourists, but uncertainties persist. In a related event, Japan's women's soccer team is scheduled to play a qualifying match for the Paris Olympics in Pyongyang on February 24, marking a significant international sporting event for North Korea. Bloomberg
U.S. cancels fuel transfer to Philippines. A US tanker, Yosemite Trader, has canceled plans to transfer a fuel shipment from a naval facility in Hawaii to the Philippines' Subic Bay due to a lack of diplomatic clearance from Manila. Philippine Senator Imee Marcos raised concerns about the fuel transfer, linking it to tensions over Taiwan. The transfer was ultimately canceled since Subic is not covered by the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement between the US and the Philippines. The cancellation comes amid suspicions about Washington’s military pre-positioning amid tensions between China and the US. The U.S. Embassy confirmed the fuel transfer as part of regular commercial transactions. Bloomberg
Myanmar’s junta says it reached cease-fire deal with rebels. Myanmar's junta has announced a temporary cease-fire agreement with rebels, potentially ending over two months of conflict. The deal involves an alliance of three rebel groups and was facilitated through talks, backed by China, in Kunming. The cease-fire, covering the northern part of Shan State, follows China's encouragement for both sides to honor a previous agreement to stop fighting in the border area. The rebel alliance, the Three Brotherhood Alliance, reported ongoing clashes despite the announcement. If the agreement holds, it would be a significant diplomatic achievement for China, aligning with its efforts to portray itself as a peacemaker in global conflicts. Bloomberg
Europe
Finland extends Russia border closures for another month. Finland is extending the closure of all eight of its border crossings with Russia until at least February 11. Finland closed its border with Russia in November to stem a surge of migrants entering from Russia. Finland has accused Moscow of pushing asylum seekers to the border to create an artificial migrant crisis to pressure the Helsinki, which Moscow has denied. Finnish officials say the situation has not changed and that they are still working on a resolution to the crisis. Kyiv Independent New York Times Associated Press
Kosovo requests anti-tank missiles from U.S. Kosovo has requested to purchase Javelin anti-tank missiles from the U.S., as confirmed by the U.S. ambassador to Serbia. The State Department will forward the request from Kosovo, a former Serbian province that declared independence in 2008, to the U.S. Congress for review. The proposed sale occurs amid regional tensions, with Serbia expressing deep disappointment over the request and emphasizing the importance of maintaining peace in the Balkans. Serbia has recently moved troops to the border, causing concerns, while Kosovo has strengthened its armed forces with equipment from various sources, including Turkey. The Javelin missile system, known for its effectiveness against armored vehicles, has been used by Ukrainian forces to destroy Russian tanks and armored vehicles. Associated Press
E.U. launches 175 million euro defense innovation fund. The European Commission and European Investment Fund (EIF) launched a new 175 million euro ($191.57 million) fund to bolster defense and security innovation. The Defense Equity Facility is set to leverage around 500 million euros in investment by attracting investment from private equity and venture capital funds. The commission said the fund will focus on technologies with dual-use civilian and military applications over the next four years. Reuters
Turkey arrests 70 suspected Islamic State militants. Turkish police detained 70 suspects with links to the Islamic State (IS) in raids across Turkey. Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced the arrests on social media, noting the discovery of large amounts of money, digital materials, and hawala banking transaction receipts. Hawala is an informal money transfer system used in parts of the Muslim world. The latest operation follows the detention of 32 suspected IS militants in December who are accused of planning attacks on synagogues, churches, and the Iraqi Embassy. Over 300 other suspected IS militants were arrested a week earlier ahead of New Year festivities. Associated Press
Africa
Somalia says it’s working to rescue hostages from UN helicopter. Somalia's government is working to rescue passengers of a U.N. helicopter captured by al-Shabaab militants in central Somalia. The U.N.-contracted helicopter made an emergency landing in an area controlled by militants after a technical problem during an air medical evacuation. It's unclear how many people were captured and whether any escaped. Military officers say accessing the area for a rescue mission is difficult, given its long-term al-Shabaab control. The U.N. confirmed response efforts are underway, and the World Food Programme suspended flights in the area as a precaution. Reuters
Burundi closes border with Rwanda amid tensions from rebel attacks. Burundi has closed its borders with Rwanda, accusing its neighbor of funding rebel attacks, including one by the Red Tabara group that killed 20 people in December near the border with the Democratic Republic of Congo. Rwanda's President Paul Kagame denies the accusations, but Burundi's government has labeled him a "bad neighbor." This border closure adds to ongoing tensions between the two countries, which have had a history of strained relations despite their linguistic, ethnic, and colonial similarities. Reuters BBC
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
Chinese private firm launches world’s most powerful solid-fuel rocket. A private aerospace company in China, OrienSpace, launched the world's most powerful solid-fuel rocket, the Gravity-1, from a ship near the coast of Haiyang in Shandong province. The rocket, with a thrust of 600 tonnes, can lift 6.5 tonnes of cargo into near-Earth orbit and has a spacious cargo compartment suitable for China's space station needs. The Gravity-1 is almost twice as heavy as the European Space Agency's Vega-C, the previous record holder. It can support batch networking launches of low and medium-orbit satellites, carrying up to 30 satellites weighing 100kg each. OrienSpace aims to compete in the global space race dominated by SpaceX, emphasizing cost-effectiveness and plans for liquid rocket recyclability and reusability within two years. The use of solid fuel, combined with offshore launches, offers advantages in terms of safety, frequency, and cost-effectiveness. OrienSpace envisions an annual production capacity of 20 rockets at its Haiyang factory. South China Morning Post
Chile, Google to launch Asia-Pacific fiber optic link. The Chilean government has partnered with Google's Alphabet to construct the Humboldt Cable Project, the first undersea fiber-optic cable linking South America with the Asia-Pacific region. The cable will run 14,800 kilometers from Valparaiso, Chile, to Sydney, Australia, with a capacity of 144 terabytes and an expected lifespan of 25 years. President Gabriel Boric emphasized that the cable would enhance Chile's position as the digital hub of South America, fostering new industries and job opportunities. The move comes amid China and the U.S.'s competition for economic and political influence in Latin America, where undersea cables play a crucial role in technology competition. Reuters
China’s chip output could double in five years despite U.S. restrictions, Barclays says. China's chipmaking capacity is expected to more than double in the next five to seven years, surpassing market expectations, according to research by Barclays analysts. The analysis of 48 chipmakers in mainland China indicates that most of the additional production capacity could be added within the next three years. Chinese semiconductor manufacturers are focusing on achieving technological self-sufficiency, accelerating purchases of essential chipmaking tools despite restrictions from the U.S. and its allies. The additional capacity will largely be allocated to producing chips using older technology, potentially causing oversupply in the market by 2026 at the earliest, depending on quality and trade restrictions. China has expressed concerns to the U.S. over its restrictions on exports of chip-making machines and its investigation of China’s role in the procurement of legacy semiconductors. Bloomberg South China Morning Post
The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.
Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell, Leighton Durham, and Ryan Simons contributed to this report.
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