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9:37 AM ET, Friday, December 8, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines:  

THE TOP STORIES

U.S. Must Take Immediate Steps to stop tech flow to China, Says U.S. House Committee. The House Foreign Affairs Committee released a report yesterday calling for stricter enforcement of current rules and the adoption of new ones to prevent “the hemorrhaging of sensitive U.S. technology to China.” For example, the report said, the U.S. should deny licenses for all exports to China that have been restricted because there is a risk to national security if China gets the product. Currently, some licenses are approved case by case. The report also said companies on the Commerce Department’s trade restriction list should not be allowed to use cloud services. The report said that when a company or entity is added to the restricted list, the entire corporate structure should be added, not just specific affiliates. The committee has scheduled a hearing with Commerce Department officials on Tuesday. Reuters

Biden Administration Considering New U.S. Immigration Reforms in Exchange for Ukraine Aid.  A source with knowledge on the situation said that the White House is open to introducing an extended deportation process as well as allowing new limits on who can seek asylum in the U.S. in order to secure fresh assistance for both Ukraine and Israel. The U.S. Congress and the Biden administration are trying to secure the passage of a supplemental funding bill to provide military aid to Kyiv and Israel, and are rushing to do so before legislators pause for a Christmas break. Republicans who stress the importance of focusing on domestic issues rather than providing more foreign aid refuse to consider more funding until immigration problems are addressed, and actions are undertaken to limit the massive number of migrants trying to illegally cross the U.S.’s southern border. U.S. President Joe Biden said on Wednesday that he was open to compromising on border security in order to obtain funding. The source, who requested to speak anonymously, told Reuters that the White House would be willing to raise the standards for initial asylum screenings, consider a "safe third country" provision that would reject asylum seekers who entered another nation while traveling to the U.S., and potentially expand the "expedited removal” deportation process. It is unclear if the Biden administration would also consider placing a numerical limitation on asylum claims, though a bipartisan group of senators have been discussing this possibility. Tensions between Republicans and Democrats in Washington are high as each side maneuvers to strike a deal before December 14th, when the House of Representatives is scheduled to finish work. Reuters New York Times 

U.S., Ukrainian Authorities Sign Statement of Intent on Co-Production of Weaponry, Data Exchanges.   The Pentagon reported Wednesday that U.S. and Ukrainian officials signed a formal statement of intent to partner on defense industry co-production and enhancing technical and data exchanges between the two nations “to address the urgent needs of Ukraine's armed forces.” The Ukrainian Presidential Office said that the document calls for Ukraine to receive the materials it requires for economic recovery, advancements on the war front, and the bolstering of its defense industry. The pact will reportedly provide for the construction of production facilities within Ukraine to provide the military with weaponry, ammunition, air defense equipment, and repair and maintenance services. The U.S. Department of Defense will give Kyiv technical data to begin executing projects with the goal of improving older air defense systems by using Western munitions. Andriy Yermak, the Presidential Office chief, said that statement of intent was "the foundation for the future of our military industry complex and the strengthening of Ukraine's defense.” Kyiv Independent U.S. Department of Defense Ukrainian Presidential Office 

The U.S. Has a Defense Supply Chain Problem.  Increased demand for U.S. weapons from allies worldwide has combined with a three-decade trend of consolidation in the defense industry to strain American weapons supplies. The Army Science Board has told Congress that the Army might not have enough supplies for the U.S. itself. The warning comes as the Biden Administration has committed more than $44 billion in weapons and equipment to Ukraine and has requested additional aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. Bloomberg News reporter Courtney McBride said on the Big Take podcast that there are concerns that U.S. adversaries are watching and “could potentially seize an opportunity” presented by American weakness. Retired Army Major General John Ferrari told the podcast that failure to take action on what he says is lack of U.S. preparedness for war could have serious consequences. Bloomberg

U.K. Foreign Secretary Cameron's immigration's Warning to Senators.  British Foreign Secretary David Cameron was in Washington this week, where he warned U.S. senators of the power of voter backlash over immigration. Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) said Cameron pointed out that governments have been “falling on the left and on the right” over immigration and that the former prime minister said he lost the Brexit vote because of the issue. Romney said Cameron’s conclusion is, “If you don’t fix immigration, immigration will fix you.” Politico

House GOP Plans Special Closed-Door Meeting on 702 Reauthorization.  House Republicans plan to meet early next week to try to work out privately a longstanding split over surveillance authority under Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which expires at the end of the year. The program is meant to target foreigners’ communications, but portions of Americans’ communications get swept up as well. The meeting comes after the House Judiciary and Intelligence committees approved different reauthorization bills. The bills are similar, but the Judiciary Committee bill includes a much broader warrant requirement to obtain Americans’ information. The Judiciary bill also would make changes beyond Section 702, including preventing data brokers from selling consumer information to law enforcement agencies. Politico

Opinion- Democrats’ Border Unreality.  The Wall Street Journal’s Kimberley Strassel writes that the unified Republican opposition in the Senate to a vote to provide more aid to Ukraine and Israel sent a clear message to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and “the Democratic left” that they have tried to ignore for months: the Republican price for more foreign aid will be increased security at the southern border. Strassel says border crossings are once again surging to record levels, and Republicans worry about the growing risk of a terrorist incursion. She advises the White House to take the lead in working out a deal and persuading Senate Democrats to help produce a strong bipartisan vote that will put pressure on the House to do the same. Wall Street Journal

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Israel and U.S. Are At Odds Over Conflicting Visions for Postwar Gaza.  Israel and the U.S. are increasingly at odds over how Gaza will be administered once the war ends. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said this week that Israel wants to maintain an open-ended security presence, and he ruled out the idea of foreign peacekeepers. Israeli officials have discussed the possibility of imposing a buffer zone to keep Palestinians away from the Israeli border. Netanyahu also has ruled out any role for the Palestinian Authority, which Hamas ousted from Gaza in 2007. The U.S. meanwhile sees things much differently. Senior U.S. officials oppose Israeli reoccupation of Gaza or further shrinkage of the territory. They call for a return of the Palestinian Authority and resumption of peace talks aimed at establishing a Palestinian state. AP

Blinken: Important that Israeli Inquiry on Killed Reuters Journalist 'Come to a Conclusion'.  Secretary of State Antony Blinken said during a press conference yesterday it is important that an Israeli investigation of the killing of a Reuters reporter in Lebanon come to a conclusion. Reuters said its own investigation found that reporter Issam Abdallah was killed and six reporters were wounded by an Israeli tank crew in Lebanon on October 13. Reuters

UN Investigates Alleged Sexual Crimes in Oct 7 Hamas Attack.  CNN is out with a new report based on a UN session to investigate alleged sexual crimes committed by Hamas in the Oct 7 attack.  UN officials heard testimony from eye witness and first responder accounts that detaWhat we know about rape and sexual violence inflicted by Hamas during its terror attack on Israel.  CNN says it has been unable to independently verify the accounts, but says that multiple first responders to the Oct 7 attack, provided details described as “overwhelmingly gruesome”, related to attacks on multiple female victims.  CNN

U.N. Official Denounces “Blatant Disregard” After U.N. Sites Have Been Hit. Commissioner General of the U.N. Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) Philippe Lazzarini denounces “blatant disregard of U.N. premises” as over 80 U.N. facilities have been hit “directly or indirectly” in the Gaza Strip since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war, reportedly killing over 220 Palestinians and 130 employees. U.N. shelters in Gaza are currently overcrowded with over 1 million displaced civilians who have fled from fighting in the north, living under “appalling sanitary conditions.” Lazzarini claims there is no “safe place” in the Gaza Strip for civilians as even U.N. shelters are being hit, despite Israeli officials stating that they don’t target U.N. facilities. Lazzarini echoed calls for another cease-fire to allow additional aid and commercial goods to enter Gaza and hopes for an “independent investigation in the future” to investigate these hits. Israel says it is taking all necessary precautions to eliminate the risk to civilians, but cites Hamas’ practice of operating around civilian areas, which Israel says has turned most of Gaza into a combat zone. Associated Press 

Iran's President Accuses U.S. and West of Supporting Gaza "Genocide" in Meeting with Putin. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, while meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin on Thursday, said Western powers were backing what he called Israel’s “genocide” against Palestinians in the Gaza. The two leaders, who met each other just a day after Putin returned from visiting Saudi Arabia and the United World Emirates, did not mention their intensifying military cooperation in the meeting’s televised opening remarks. Putin noted the necessity of discussing the issues in the Middle East, to which Raisi responded by calling Israel’s military operations in the Gaza Strip a “genocide and a crime against humanity.” Iran, which has been suspected of supplying armaments to Russia for the war in Ukraine, supports the Hamas organization in control of Gaza, and Russia has ties to both Hamas and Israel, but may be using the conflict to position itself with nations that also back the Palestinians. Both Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak were present at the meeting on Thursday.  Reuters Al Jazeera 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine Says Russian Forces Struck Kharkiv 6 Times Overnight with S-300 Missiles. Ukrainian military officials said that Russia used S-300 missiles to launch strikes at civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv six times overnight on Friday. The missiles were reportedly fired from Russia’s Belgorod region with the Ukrainian districts of Kholodnohirs'kyi and Shevchenkivskyi experiencing the most severe hits. One person was wounded and treated at the scene of the attack. Kharkiv Oblast is consistently the target of assaults, with Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, having been the site of heavy bombardments after Russia’s 2022 invasion. In October, 51 people were killed when Russia targeted a grocery store and cafe in the small settlement of Hroza, which lies around 86 kilometers east of Kharkiv.  Kyiv Independent Ukrinform 

ANALYSIS from CNN’s Nick Paton Walsh- As Western Unity on Ukraine Falters, Putin Eyes a Slow-Burn Win.  CNN’s Nick Paton Walsh writes that the front lines in the Ukraine war are hardening as winter sets in, and says that Russian President Vladimir Putin doesn’t really need to do much to “call it a win.” In Kyiv, there is “a palpable sense” that morale is ebbing slightly, and “disarray and disunity” loom among Ukraine’s allies. Walsh says the uncertainty in Washington is “baffling.” Congressional reluctance to provide urgently needed assistance is sometimes explained as Republicans not wanting the U.S. to get dragged into another conflict, but the aid is meant precisely to prevent a Russian advance near enough to NATO borders to force the U.S. to send troops. Walsh says a “gentle blame game” has begun over why Ukraine’s counteroffensive failed to deliver the necessary results. Walsh says all this is “a slow drain of vigor that Putin has surely long wished for” and is “a remarkable turnaround” for Putin, who faced open rebellion from Yevgeny Prigozhin six months ago. The fear is now Russia will be content to move slowly, scoring one “tiny, costly victory” at a time. Walsh says Europe and the U.S. “must retain the conviction that this is an existential fight for Western security.” CNN

ANALYSIS- The Ukrainian Fingerprints On A Shadowy Assassination Campaign On Russian Soil.  Not long after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Ukraine began a not-so-secret sabotage campaign inside Russia, which apparently includes a string of assassination attempts. Among the targets: a nationalist writer and politician, a military blogger, a political philosopher, and just this week a former Ukrainian lawmaker known for his pro-Russia views. Ukrainian officials did not publicly claim responsibility for killing the former Ukrainian lawmaker, Illya Kyva, but also made no effort to hide their satisfaction with the killing. Ukrainian intelligence agents also have targeted many individuals within Ukraine itself, including some who have collaborated with Russia and commanders of separatist militias. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

U.S., Japanese, South Korean Security Advisers Gather in Seoul to Discuss North Korea. The Presidential Office of South Korea announced that U.S., Japanese, and South Korean national security advisors are set to meet in Seoul on Friday and Saturday for talks on North Korea’s aggression and other global concerns. The office reported that South Korean national security adviser Cho Tae-yong is expected to hold bilateral talks with Washington’s Jake Sullivan and Tokyo’s Takeo Akiba on Friday. A trilateral meeting will also be held on Saturday. In November, the three nations denounced Pyongyang for launching its first reconnaissance satellite and breaching several U.N. Security Council resolutions. North Korea rejected the condemnation and maintained that the launch was necessary to bolster its surveillance capabilities. John Kirby, the White House’s national security spokesperson, on Wednesday said that the officials would discuss regional problems, "particularly in the security environment,” as they work to strengthen cooperation and communication. Washington and Seoul are also scheduled to hold a separate meeting on Saturday for talks on deepening cooperation in sophisticated technologies such as A.I., chips, batteries, and clean energy. Reuters U.S. News 

Australia 'heartened' as the US Congress expected to pass AUKUS provisions. Australia's government welcomed signs that a U.S. defense spending bill that would authorize the sale of nuclear submarines to Australia is set to pass Congress. After a compromise between Republicans and Democrats, the bill is likely to be approved and finalized. The sale is part of AUKUS, an agreement between the three nations on the development of nuclear-powered submarines. The first phase would allow for the sale of three US nuclear submarines to Australia, with further development of advanced submarines by the three countries to come at a later date. Defense Minister Richard Marles told reporters that Australia is “heartened and hopeful” and added that the submarine is expected to be sold to Australia within the next decade. "It's obviously a matter for the U.S. Congress, but we are hopeful of a good result. And if we achieve that good result, what's in prospect is a once in a generation change," he said. Reuters

Denmark Passes Law Prohibiting Public Koran Burnings Following Global Backlash. The parliament of Denmark on Thursday passed legislation forbidding the burning of the Koran in public places, after tensions escalated in the Muslim world following several Danish protests in which the holy book was destroyed. The law bans “inappropriate treatment of writings with significant religious importance for a recognised religious community,” and passed with 94 votes in favor and 77 opposed. Justice Minister Peter Hummelgaard said more than 500 protests in which the Koran or flags were burned have been registered since this summer. He expressed concerns that "such demonstrations” can harm Copenhagen's relations with other nations, as well as the country’s “interests and ultimately our safety.”  Those who break the law could face a fine or a two-year prison sentence. Queen Margrethe must sign the bill before it can take effect, a process that could take a month. Inger Stojberg, head of the anti-immigration Denmark Democrats party, argued that the law restricts the freedom of speech, and that "history will judge us harshly.” Denmark’s government has struggled to balance the rights of freedom of speech with security and terrorist fears, as the burnings could prompt attacks by Islamists.  BBC Reuters Al Jazeera 

Taiwan Reports Rare Nighttime Chinese Military Activity. Taiwan says it detected Chinese Su-30, J-10, J-11 fighters, H-6 bombers, and an early warning aircraft operating at nighttime around the island. Taiwan’s defense ministry asserts thirteen of those aircrafts crossed the Taiwan Strait’s median line, which serves as an unofficial barrier between Taiwan and China, to carry out “joint combat readiness patrols” with Chinese warships. Taipei has complained for the past four years of regular Chinese military drills near the island, but over the past month there have been at least four other large-scale events by the Chinese military. This increase in Chinese military activity comes as Taiwanese government elections grow near, with relations between the two countries being a major point of contention. Taiwan has sent military forces to monitor the area.  Reuters 

Former Sierra Leone President Summoned for Questioning Over Failed Coup Attempt. Sierra Leone Police asked former president Ernest Bai Koroma to report to the headquarters of the Criminal Investigations Department within 24 hours for questioning in the investigation of a failed coup attempt last month where about 2,200 inmates were freed and over 20 people killed in several attacks across Sierra Leone. This failed coup was led by Koroma’s bodyguards, and so far about 45 military officers and 7 police officers have been arrested as well. Koroma condemned the attacks and will honor the invitation to “support the police investigation to the fullest.” Reuters 

Seychelles Declares a State of Emergency. Seychelles declared a state of emergency after heavy rain and flooding killed three people and an explosion in the industrial area of Providence, about 4 miles from the capital, injured 178 people. President Wavel Ramkalawan said the floods caused “major destruction” and the blast “massive damage” that made it look like “we went through war” as it destroyed buildings and left a large crater. Ramkalawan ordered schools to close and citizens to stay home to allow emergency services to do their jobs. Government Minister Jean-Francois Ferrari states they “don’t really know what happened”, but the explosives that caused the blast will be investigated to determine if the construction company followed the proper precautions with their storage. There have been no recorded deaths as a result of the explosion, and the blast has not been linked to the weather.  Associated Press 

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

UAE AI Firm Announces Shift Away From Chinese Partners in Favor of U.S. Suppliers.  A leading AI firm from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced it is severing ties with Chinese hardware vendors in favor of U.S. suppliers.  The move by the company, G42, comes in the wake of the U.S. questioning the company’s relationship with Chinese companies amid concerns of illicit technology transfer.  The New York Times reported last week that U.S. officials were worried by the UAE company’s relationship with groups, including Chinese telecoms giant Huawei.  The Times reported that the U.S. also raised concerns that G42 could be a channel for AI technology and the genetic data of U.S. citizens to the Chinese government.  G42 CEO Peng Xiao, in announcing the move, said “for better or worse, as a commercial company, we are in a position where we have to make a choice,” adding that “we cannot work with both sides.”  Xiao explained that “in order for us to further our relationship — which we cherish — with our US partners, we simply cannot do much more with [previous] Chinese partners.”  The UAE company reportedly made the decision in favor of U.S. suppliers to ensure its access to U.S.-made chips.  The decision by G42 to cut some ties to China is seen as evidence that Gulf countries with AI ambitions have become enmeshed in the technological competition between China and the U.S.   Financial Times

AMD Unveils New AI Chip Variants Rivaling Nvidia’s in Speed, Performance – New AI chips introduced by Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are reported to pose the toughest challenge yet to the market dominance of rival chipmaker, Nvidia.  Customers for AMD processors include Microsoft, Oracle, and Meta.  Microsoft and Oracle will begin offering the new chips for evaluation by customers.   AMD expects strong sales from its AI chip line, rising to more than $2 billion in revenues in 2024.  AMD said the performance of systems equipped with its latest chips are equal to Nvidia’s top-of-the-line H100-based systems in creating complex AI tools.  AMD claims its new chips provide faster responses from large language systems.  The company also pointed to the large amounts of computer memory its chips make available, allowing them to handle ever-larger AI systems.  AMD’s latest chips come in two variants, the MI300X, an advanced graphics processor for AI computation, and the MI300A, which combines graphics processing capabilities with standard-issue central processing units for both AI and scientific research.  Wall Street Journal   Bloomberg 

Federal Agencies Complete Cryptography Inventory, Key Step Preparing for Quantum Age – Federal agencies have completed a milestone in preparing for the quantum age by assembling a comprehensive inventory of cryptographic systems in use across government agencies.  Nick Polk, a senior adviser to the federal chief information security officer (CISO), explained that for the first time, the federal government has “a comprehensive inventory of our asymmetric cryptography across all the agencies and their critical systems.”  Polk described the inventory task as the “biggest area of progress we’ve seen and the most important.”  It is critical, Polk said, “because now the agencies have a baseline for understanding where that cryptography is in all their systems.”  The inventory, Polk added, will serve as the foundation for the roadmap agencies will create when the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) releases its post-quantum cryptography standards, three of which should be officially released next year.  FedScoop

Apple Report Discloses Record Surges in Data Breaches, Ransomware Attacks in 2023 – A new report commissioned by Apple reveals that data breaches are 20 percent higher through September of this year compared with the same period last year.  Over the past two years, a total of 2.6 billion personal records have been exposed.  The upward trend has led Apple to recommend that the tech industry make greater use of encryption.  A similar upward surge in ransomware attacks was reported through September, 70 percent more than in the first three quarters of 2022.  The U.S., Britain, Canada, and Australia lead the list of most targeted countries, accounting for almost 70 percent of reported ransomware attacks.  The Apple report noted that in 2023 ransomware attacks reached unprecedented levels while also becoming more sophisticated and aggressive.  The report also explained that attacks on vendors are increasing and spreading through the supply chain to other organizations, with consequences that can be “devastating.”  Axios  

The data cutoff for this product was 8:00a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ken Hughes, Katharine Campbell, Bruce Wilmot, Ryan Simons and Tiffany Krueger contributed to this report. 

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