[rebelmouse-image 60323897 expand=1 dam=1 alt="OSR Full Logo Header 2.0" site_id=26883708 is_animated_gif="false" original_size="500x200" crop_info="%7B%22image%22%3A%20%22https%3A//assets.rbl.ms/60323897/origin.png%22%2C%20%22thumbnails%22%3A%20%7B%22origin%22%3A%20%22https%3A//assets.rbl.ms/60323897/origin.png%22%2C%20%22300x%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D300%22%2C%20%221000x750%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D1000%26height%3D750%26coordinates%3D116%252C0%252C117%252C0%22%2C%20%22600x600%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D600%26height%3D600%26coordinates%3D150%252C0%252C150%252C0%22%2C%20%222000x1500%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D2000%26height%3D1500%26coordinates%3D116%252C0%252C117%252C0%22%2C%20%221200x400%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D1200%26height%3D400%26coordinates%3D0%252C17%252C0%252C17%22%2C%20%22600x200%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D600%26height%3D200%26coordinates%3D0%252C17%252C0%252C17%22%2C%20%22750x1000%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D750%26height%3D1000%26coordinates%3D175%252C0%252C175%252C0%22%2C%20%221500x2000%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D1500%26height%3D2000%26coordinates%3D175%252C0%252C175%252C0%22%2C%20%221245x700%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D1245%26height%3D700%26coordinates%3D72%252C0%252C72%252C0%22%2C%20%22600x400%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D600%26height%3D400%26coordinates%3D100%252C0%252C100%252C0%22%2C%20%221200x800%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D1200%26height%3D800%26coordinates%3D100%252C0%252C100%252C0%22%2C%20%221200x600%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D1200%26height%3D600%26coordinates%3D50%252C0%252C50%252C0%22%2C%20%22700x1245%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D700%26height%3D1245%26coordinates%3D193%252C0%252C194%252C0%22%2C%20%2235x35%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D35%26height%3D35%22%2C%20%22600x%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D600%22%2C%20%22300x300%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D300%26height%3D300%26coordinates%3D150%252C0%252C150%252C0%22%2C%20%22600x300%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D600%26height%3D300%26coordinates%3D50%252C0%252C50%252C0%22%2C%20%22980x%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D980%22%2C%20%22210x%22%3A%20%22https%3A//rebelmouse.thecipherbrief.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy82MDMyMzg5Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTc3NjU3MDYxMX0.ArCiKF74VYJw-LAnvo3nzjJsGsjrz-Fcx0h5SaMLFd0/image.png%3Fwidth%3D210%22%7D%2C%20%22manual_image_crops%22%3A%20%7B%229x16%22%3A%20%7B%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%22700x1245%22%5D%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20200%2C%20%22width%22%3A%20113%2C%20%22left%22%3A%20193%7D%2C%20%22600x300%22%3A%20%7B%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%22600x300%22%5D%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20200%2C%20%22width%22%3A%20400%2C%20%22left%22%3A%2050%7D%2C%20%223x1%22%3A%20%7B%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%221200x400%22%2C%20%22600x200%22%5D%2C%20%22top%22%3A%2017%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20166%2C%20%22width%22%3A%20500%2C%20%22left%22%3A%200%7D%2C%20%223x2%22%3A%20%7B%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%221200x800%22%2C%20%22600x400%22%5D%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20200%2C%20%22width%22%3A%20300%2C%20%22left%22%3A%20100%7D%2C%20%221x1%22%3A%20%7B%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%22600x600%22%2C%20%22300x300%22%5D%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20200%2C%20%22width%22%3A%20200%2C%20%22left%22%3A%20150%7D%2C%20%223x4%22%3A%20%7B%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%221500x2000%22%2C%20%22750x1000%22%5D%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20200%2C%20%22width%22%3A%20150%2C%20%22left%22%3A%20175%7D%2C%20%2216x9%22%3A%20%7B%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%221245x700%22%5D%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20200%2C%20%22width%22%3A%20356%2C%20%22left%22%3A%2072%7D%2C%20%224x3%22%3A%20%7B%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%222000x1500%22%2C%20%221000x750%22%5D%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20200%2C%20%22width%22%3A%20267%2C%20%22left%22%3A%20116%7D%2C%20%222x1%22%3A%20%7B%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%221200x600%22%2C%20%22600x300%22%5D%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20200%2C%20%22width%22%3A%20400%2C%20%22left%22%3A%2050%7D%7D%7D" caption="" photo_credit="" title=""]

10:00 AM ET, Friday, December 1, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines:  

THE TOP STORIES

Israel Knew of Hamas’s Attack Plans Over a Year Ago.The New York Times reports that Israeli officials obtained a detailed 40-page document outlining Hamas’s plans for its October 7 attack against Israel over a year before it happened.

The “Jericho Wall” document describes plans for Hamas militants to breach the border fence separating Israel and Gaza to infiltrate Israeli cities, launch rockets against Israeli forces, and use drones to disable security measures along the border.  The document also includes sensitive information about the size and capabilities of Israel’s military and the location of targets like communication hubs.  The October 7 attack followed the plan with significant precision.  For example, the document detailed a plan to overrun the Israeli military base in Re’im, which Hamas militants successfully did in the attack.

Israeli military and intelligence officials reportedly dismissed the plan as aspirational, believing that Hamas did not have the capabilities to execute it.  Israel also allegedly misread Hamas’s intentions, viewing acts like the group’s negotiations for permits to allow Palestinians to work in Israel as a sign that it was not seeking a conflict.  After obtaining the Jericho Wall document, Israel drafted an intelligence assessment that acknowledged that Hamas has “decided to plan a new raid, unprecedented in its scope.”  However, the assessment saw the document as a “compass,” or a guide for an attack that Hamas was yet to be able to carry out.

Israeli security officials and Cipher Brief experts have described the October 7 attack as a major intelligence failure.  New York Times

Senator Wyden to Block Senate Vote on New Leader of NSA, Cyber Command.  Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) said on Thursday that he would block a vote to confirm Lt. Gen. Timothy Haugh as the next leader of the NSA and U.S. Cyber Command until the NSA provides information on alleged surveillance of Americans. Wyden’s stand comes amid increasing concern in Congress over federal surveillance powers. Wyden issued a statement saying he “regretfully” opposes a vote on Haugh because defense and intelligence officials have refused to make public information he received in 2021 about the NSA buying and using location data on Americans. A Defense Department official speaking on anonymity said the Pentagon looks forward to working with Wyden “to address his concerns.”  Politico

China’s Top Spy Agency Vows to Protect Critical Minerals, Slams Western Tech Controls.  China’s Ministry of State Security said in a post on its WeChat social media account on Thursday that protecting the country’s supply of critical minerals is among its top priorities.  The agency also criticized Western countries for sanctions on China’s chip industry. The statement said some Western countries have blocked access to critical mineral resources, “seriously impeding the process of globalization.” The post listed lithium, gallium, germanium and rare earth minerals as key resources for strategic industries including energy, semiconductors, artificial intelligence and aerospace. The statement comes after China imposed export controls on gallium and germanium in August in retaliation against Western sanctions. Additional Chinese export restrictions on graphite, a key component in electric vehicle batteries, take effect today.  South China Morning Post

A Potentially Toned Down U.S. Defense Bill Could Pose Challenge for Speaker Johnson.  Politico is out with a report, citing anonymous sources, that says ongoing negotiations over some of the more contentious aspects of the new bill will likely delay its release until sometime next week.  The report also examines likely scenarios related to the upcoming National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) legislation, including what both sides may view as red lines and acceptable compromises.  In what is viewed as one of the first major legislative challenges for the new speaker of the house Mike Johnson, the version of the NDAA that emerges could ignite conservative opposition if they feel that too many of their key requirements have been cut.  Politico

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Truce in Gaza Expires, Israel Resumes Attack.  Fighting in Gaza resumed today as a week-old truce expired with no agreement to extend it. Israeli airstrikes and rockets pounded the region, filling hospitals with dead and wounded. Witnesses said the bombing was most intense in Khan Younis and Rafah in southern Gaza. The Israeli military dropped leaflets ordering residents of four towns to evacuate south to Rafah, on the Egyptian border. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said Israel remains “committed to achieving the goals of the war” – to free the hostages, eliminate Hamas, and “ensure that Gaza will never pose a threat to the residents of Israel.” Hamas political bureau member Ezzat El Rashq said on the group’s website that what Israel did not achieve before the truce, it will not achieve “by continuing its aggression after the truce.” Each side blamed the other for failure to extend the truce. Hamas said Israel had refused to accept any of its hostage exchange offers. Israel said Hamas did not free all the kidnapped women it had promised in the latest group of released hostages and that Hamas violated the truce by firing missiles at Israel. The Israeli military said its Iron Dome missile defense system intercepted a rocket launched from Gaza early today that triggered air raid sirens in Israel. Hamas did not immediately comment on the reported launch. Qatar said negotiations on restoring the truce are ongoing but that Israel’s renewed bombardment complicates its efforts. Qatar also reiterated a call for Israel to allow more aid into Gaza from Egypt. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who met with Israeli and Palestinian officials yesterday, declined to comment on the collapse of the truce.  Reuters Bloomberg Washington Post

Israel Seeks to Eliminate Hamas Leaders Around the World.  Israeli intelligence services are planning a long-term campaign to target Hamas leaders globally following the war in Gaza.  Targets in the campaign include Hamas leaders in Lebanon, Turkey, and Qatar.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has explicitly and publicly called for the campaign as part of efforts to eliminate Hamas, saying on November 22 that he has “instructed the Mossad to act against the heads of Hamas wherever they are.”  Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant likewise said that Hamas leaders “are marked for death” in a “worldwide” struggle.  Israel has a long history of launching covert operations around the world to kill Hamas leaders and other Palestinian militants, including the Operation Wrath of God targeting Palestinian militants linked to the 1972 Munich Olympics Attack, the failed 1997 attempt to poison Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal in Jordan, and the 2010 assassination of Hamas military leader Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in Dubai.  The targeted killings carry potential diplomatic risks and international legal implications.  Former Israeli security and intelligence officials have offered mix responses to the planned campaign.  Some support it, such as retired Israeli General Amos Yadlin, who said the campaign “is what justice demands.”  Others are in opposition, such as former Mossad Director Efraim Halevy, who sees the plan as “far-fetched” and “a desire to exact revenge, not a desire to achieve a strategic aim.”  Wall Street Journal

ANALYSIS VIDEO – How the USS Carney is Equipped to Fight Iranian Proxies in the Middle East.  A Wall Street Journal video explains the workings of the USS Carney, a destroyer that is part of the U.S. Naval deployment to the Middle East to deter Houthis and other militant groups from involving themselves in the Israel-Hamas war. In late November, the Carney shot down a drone launched from Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen, and a month earlier it intercepted several drones and cruise missiles fired by the Houthis. Destroyers including the Carney have several offensive and defensive capabilities, but its primary purpose is to protect carrier strike groups. The Carney is equipped with a fully integrated combat system called Aegis. To spot potential threats, the ship employs the SPY-1D Radar, which can detect a target as small as a golf ball more than 100 miles away and can track more than 100 targets simultaneously. When a threat is detected, Aegis works with the ship’s other systems to intercept it. Aegis communicates with the MK41 Vertical Launch System, which can fire almost any kind of Navy missile. The system has rapid-fire capability that can handle numerous incoming missiles. In the October Houthi attack, the system deployed SM-2 guided missiles to intercept the Houthi missiles.  Wall Street Journal

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Zelensky says War in New Stage with Transition to Winter.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is calling for defenses to be bolstered across the front line as the war enters a “new phase” with the onset of winter.  After meeting with military commanders, Zelensky emphasized that “maximum attention” should be paid to eastern towns in the Donetsk region targeted by Russian offensives — such as Avdiivka — as well as the key northeastern defensive line between Kupyansk and Lyman.  He also said defenses around the Kyiv capital region will be strengthened.  More broadly, Zelensky said Ukraine “wanted faster results” from its summer counteroffensive and “we did not achieve the desired results,” blaming, in part, the failure to receive all needed military equipment from allies.  However, Zelensky vowed to continue fighting and asserted that Ukrainian forces have made incremental territorial gains — namely in southeastern Ukraine and, more recently, on the east bank of the Dnipro River — and has significantly diminished Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.  He also said that he is focused on boosting domestic arms production.  Zelensky also reiterated concerns that the simultaneous crisis in the Middle East could lead to less economic and military aid for Kyiv.  Associated Press Reuters CNN BBC

Ukraine Shoots Down 18 Drones, 1 Missile Fired by Russia Overnight.  The Ukrainian Air Force on Friday reported that it shot down one of two Kh-59 cruise missiles and 18 of the 25 Shahed attack drones launched by Russia overnight. Moscow reportedly launched the drones from Cape Chauda in Crimea and from Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Krasnodar Krai.  Aircraft traveling over the occupied Kherson region fired the missiles. Ukraine’s Air Force said that the main attack direction was the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine.  Air defenses were reportedly activated in the Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Ukrainian authorities foresee an increase in airstrikes on civilian infrastructure as winter deepens. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine’s Interior Minister Says 2,000 Ukrainian Civilians Killed by Russia This Year.  Ukraine’s Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko reports that Russian shelling has killed 2,000 Ukrainian civilians and wounded 11,000 others this year. Speaking at a gathering of  G7 ambassadors, Klymenko added that Ukrainian law enforcement authorities have registered almost 101,000 incidents of Russian war crimes, including abuse of civilians, shelling, illegal detention, and deportation.  Russian forces reportedly fired 59,000 times at towns and cities in 24 regions of Ukraine, shelling the Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Sumy regions the most.  Andrii Kostin, Ukraine’s top prosecutor, revealed in November that Kyiv has found evidence of  109,000 Russian war crimes in Ukraine. Kyiv Independent

UK Defense Ministry Says Russia Deploying New Airborne Division.  The U.K. Ministry of Defense reports that Russia’s VDV airborne forces have most likely begun deploying the newly formed and reportedly poorly trained 104th Guards Airborne Division (104 GAD) in Ukraine’s Kherson region for the first time. The ministry said on Thursday that the division’s subordinate units most likely include the 52nd Artillery Brigade, the 337th regiment, and an additional maneuver regiment.  This addition will bring the number of divisions in the VDV’s order of battle to five, though the 104th will probably not meet elite standards due to poor training. The ministry said that Russian General Colonel Mikhail Teplinsky, the leader responsible for the region of Kherson, will most likely scrutinize the division closely.  UK Ministry of Defense X

Hungary’s Orban says E.U. Should Sign Strategic Partnership Accord with Ukraine. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on Friday that the E.U. should first sign a strategic partnership agreement with Ukraine instead of directly starting membership talks with Kyiv.  Orban said the agreement could last 5-10 years as Ukraine works on meeting requirements for membership.  His comments come as the E.U. is set to decide in mid-December whether to accept the European Commission’s recommendation to invite Ukraine to start membership talks once it meets final conditions.  The bloc’s 27 members must unanimously approve the decision.  Hungary is seen as the main obstacle, as Orban has voiced opposition to the Commission’s current proposal, arguing that there are still issues to be resolved before membership talks can begin.  His proposal offers a potential compromise.  Orban also made the proposal a day after E.U. officials said Budapest is close to unlocking billions of euros of E.U. funds frozen over concerns about democratic backsliding in Hungary.  Reuters

Delivery of U.S.-Adapted Long-Range Rocket for Ukraine Pushed to Next Year.  Ukraine is set to receive its first shipment of Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB) in early 2024.  The U.S. first approached Boeing to buy and ship the rocket-propelled bombs last fall with delivery set for this year.  Sources say that Boeing will deliver the GLSDB to the U.S. in late September, followed by months of testing before shipment to Ukraine.  The Pentagon said the contract to begin production of the bombs was signed in March, resulting in the delivery towards the end of the year.  The GLSDB will be used to augment the limited number of 100-mile range ATACMS rockets Ukraine has received from the U.S.  It will allow Ukrainian forces to hit targets at twice the distance reachable by rockets fired from U.S.-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS).  Russia claimed in March that it downed a GLSDB in Ukraine, though the U.S. has yet to supply the smart bombs to Kyiv.  The weapon is jointly made by Boeing and Sweden’s SAAB, which says it is GPS-guided, can counter some electronic jamming, is operable in all weather conditions, and can target armored vehicles.  Reuters

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

U.S. Forces Saudi Venture Capital Firm to Exit Altman-Backed AI Chip Startup.  The Biden Administration has forced a Saudi Aramco venture capital company to sell its shares in a Silicon Valley AI chip startup funded by OpenAI co-founder Sam Altman. Prosperity7, a key investor in a funding round that raised $25 million for Rain AI last year, sold its shares in the startup following a review by the U.S. Committee on Foreign Investment (CIFUS), sources familiar with the matter said. The order came amid heightened U.S. scrutiny of the activity of Middle Eastern wealth funds resulting from increasing resistance to entities regarded as having close ties with China. CIFUS also is reviewing several multi-billion dollar deals over concerns they could pose national security risks.  Reuters Bloomberg

Federal Judge Blocks Montana TikTok Ban.  A U.S. federal judge on Thursday blocked Montana’s state ban on the Chinese social media app TikTok, saying that the ban "oversteps state power” and "violates the Constitution in more ways than one.” The ban, which was set to take effect on the 1st of January, had been approved by state legislators who expressed concerns about potential spying from China and the misuse of user data.  Both the Chinese owner of the app, ByteDance, and users in Montana sued the state to block the ban. TikTok said the ruling will allow Montanans to “continue to express themselves, earn a living, and find community” on the app.  A spokesperson for the office of Montana state attorney general Austin Knudsen said the judge’s ruling was preliminary and that "the analysis could change as the case proceeds." Knudesen’s office said it looked forward to continuing the case and protecting Montanans from “the Chinese Communist Party.”  TikTok has denied sharing or planning to share its users’ data with the Chinese government. Reuters Washington Post Wall Street Journal CNN

Meta Threat Report Anticipates Chinese-Russian-Iran Info Ops in Election Campaigns.  Meta’s latest “adversarial threat report” emphasizes that foreign influence campaigns are intensifying in preparation for multiple democratic elections in 2024, including in the U.S., Britain, and India.  Notable elections also will take place in Taiwan and Moldova.  Meta’s threat report spotlights three separate influence operation that it played a role in disrupting, two from China and one of Russian origin.  The Chinese campaigns focused on India and the Tibet region along with the U.S.  The Russia-sponsored operation revolved around criticism of President Joe Biden’s support for Ukraine, and French President Emmanuel Macron for the French role in West Africa.  Looking ahead to 2024, the report singles out Russia, Iran and China as the leading sources of “coordinated inauthentic information.”  These countries, Meta says, will exploit through covert operations any narratives that become election issues in the U.S. or elsewhere next year.  In the event Chinese relations become an election issue in a targeted country, the report states, “it is likely that we’ll see China-based influence operations pivot to attempt to influence those debates.”  Similarly, political debates in Europe and North America over support for Ukraine likely will trigger “Russian attempts to interfere in those debates.”  The Record CyberScoop

Russia-Linked Black Basta Gang Ransom Haul Exceeds $100 Million.  The Russia-linked Black Basta ransomware gang has extorted over $100 million in Bitcoin ransom payments since early 2022.  Researchers from Elliptic and Corvus Insurance analyzed Black Basta crypto ransom payments involving more than 90 victims, with an average ransom of $1.2 million.  Even these estimates are conservative as it is possible other ransoms remain undetected by researchers.  Ransomware groups do not rely on a single crypto wallet for payments, and victims rarely share details about ransom transfers.  The analysis of Black Basta’s leak site reveals that “at least 35 percent of known Black Basta victims paid a ransom,” which the researchers described as “consistent with reports that 41 percent of all ransomware victims paid a ransom in 2022.”  The researchers also concluded that Black Basta’s crypto transactions reinforce its links to the Conti Group, with several million dollars in Bitcoin from Conti-linked wallets deposited in wallets linked to Black Basta.  Elliptic said “this further strengthens the theory that Black Basta is an offshoot or rebrand of Conti.”  Included among Black Basta’s victims list are Capita, a UK technology outsourcing firm with substantial UK government contracts, and ABB, an industrial automation company and contractor for the U.S. government.  Neither firm has publicly disclosed if they paid Black Basta ransoms.  CybernewsBleepingComputer The Record

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

Asia and Oceania

Philippines Builds New Coast Guard Station in South China Sea.  The Philippines has built a new coast guard station on Thitu Island in the South China Sea.  The Philippine coast guard said the new facility, inaugurated on Friday, is equipped with state-of-the-art radar, automatic identification, satellite communication, and coastal cameras.  The new station is set to boost Manila’s ability to monitor Chinese vessels and aircraft in the disputed South China Sea.  During a visit to the island, Eduardo Ano, the Philippine national security advisor, criticized Philippine military and coast guard actions in the region as “unpredictable” and part of “gray-zone tactics (that)... are pure bullying” and violate international law.  The Chinese embassy in Manila did not immediately comment on the new station.  The Philippines has its biggest outpost in the waterway on Thitu, known locally as Pag-asa, which is about 300 miles west of the Philippine province of Palawan.  Reuters South China Morning Post

Beijing Luring Key Local Taiwanese Politicians to China Ahead of January Elections.  Beijing has sponsored hundreds of cheap trips to China for Taiwanese politicians ahead of key elections on the island in January.  A Taiwan security official told Reuters that Taiwanese security agencies have tracked over 400 visits to China in the last month, mostly by local opinion leaders like borough chiefs and village heads.  The agencies believe the trips were subsidized by units under China’s Taiwan Affairs Office.  Another Taiwan security official said these trips amount to “election interference,” arguing that China is targeting politicians who are key to Taiwan’s administrative systems and are critical in shaping public opinion.  Taiwanese prosecutors say they believe Chinese officials asked some Taiwanese politicians who participated in these trips to support certain political parties and “oppose Taiwan independence.”  However, it is difficult to establish a legal case against trip-takers since it is challenging to pinpoint funding from Chinese state agencies and determine what was said in meetings between Taiwanese and Chinese officials.  Reuters

North Korea’s Kim Urges Military Readiness Against Any ‘Provocation.’  North Korean state media KCNA on Friday reported that Kim Jong Un ordered the country’s military to be prepared for any “provocation” by enemies. North Korea last month launched a spy satellite, further escalating tensions in the region and prompting Seoul to suspend a clause in a 2018 inter-Korean military pact. In turn, Pyongyang said it was no longer bound by the accord. KCNA reported that Kim, while on a visit to the country’s air force command, introduced new “operational and tactical policies” made to “counter any military provocation and threat of the enemy immediately and powerfully.” He also celebrated the air forces for its readiness to perform tasks “under any unfavorable situation.” The U.S. on Thursday imposed new sanctions on the North in response to the satellite launch, which violated U.N. sanctions on North Korean satellite and missile technology development.  Reuters 

China, Vietnam Consider Upgrading Rail Link through Rare Earths Heartland.  China and Vietnam are discussing possible upgrades to their railway links.  Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh specifically called for an upgrade of the railway linking Kunming in southern China to Vietnam’s port of Haiphong last month, following Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao’s visit to Vietnam.  The upgraded railway would pass through the region with the largest rare earths deposits in Vietnam.  China is the world’s largest rare earths refiner.  Vietnam seeks to build up its rare earths industry but has been hobbled by internal disagreements.  Vietnamese state media reports that Chinese and Vietnamese rare earths industry experts have been discussing stronger cooperation on mineral processing.  Railway connections and other trade issues are expected to be discussed at talks between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Vietnam’s Deputy Prime Minister Tran Luu Quang in Hanoi on Friday.  Reuters 

Africa

Guinea-Bissau says Order Restored After Clash Between National Guard, Army.  Guinea Bissau’s army says order has been restored after fighting broke out when soldiers from the national guard freed an opposition minister from a police station.  Officials said fighting started when national guard soldiers stormed a police station where Finance Minister Suleimane Seidi and secretary of state for the treasury, Antonio Monteiro, were detained after being arrested on Thursday night.  The two were arrested for allegedly disbursing public funds without permission.  Seidi is a member of the former ruling PAIGC party, which leads the coalition that won the majority in legislative elections in June.  The victory prevented President Umaro Sissoco Embalo from enacting a constitutional change to consolidate power by removing the country’s semi-presidential system, which PAIGC opposed.  Guinea Bissau’s national guard reports to the parliament, while the military reports to the president.  The army said the head of the national guard, Victor Tchongo, led the move to free Seidi and Monteiro.  Police sources said Tchongo had been arrested but was now freed, while Seidi and Monteiro are back in custody.  Embalo is in Dubai attending the COP28 climate summit.  His communications team said he had “nothing to do” with the clashes, the latest incident adding to recent unrest in West Africa.  Reuters France 24

Somali Maritime Police Intensify Patrols Following Attempted Hijacking.  Somali maritime police have doubled patrols and put them on a 24-hour rotation in the Gulf of Aden following the attempted hijacking of an Israeli-linked tanker off the coast of Yemen.  Armed Somali nationals are believed to have attempted to seize the tanker and were thwarted by the U.S. Navy.  The Somali government has appealed for international support to address increased piracy in the Horn of Africa, which comes amid unrest linked to the Israel-Hamas conflict.  Associated Press 

E.U. Cancels Election Observation Mission to Congo. The E.U. has canceled its election observation mission to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) due to technical constraints and security reasons. The E.U. already had election observers placed in Kinshasa, and others were planned to be deployed in most provinces of the DRC as tensions run high ahead of presidential, legislative, and regional elections. The deployment of observers was canceled after questions were raised about the use of satellite equipment and other conditions that would prevent observers from working in a safe and independent manner.  Congo’s government says it remains open to welcoming E.U. observers and upholds its commitment to holding transparent, free, and inclusive elections, though opposition candidates have expressed doubts about the fairness of the vote. The E.U. is currently exploring alternative options with the Congolese authorities.  Reuters

The data cutoff for this product was 8:00a.m. E.T.

Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Katharine Campbell, and Tiffany Krueger contributed to this report. 

Read deeply-experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis and opinion inThe Cipher Brief