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10:00 AM ET, Friday, August 25, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
The Americas
Top U.S. General Says Too Early to say Whether Ukraine Counteroffensive Has Succeeded or Failed. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley said on Thursday that it is too early to say whether the Ukrainian counteroffensive has succeeded or failed. In an interview with Jordanian media, Milley said that the counteroffensive has faced “a very complex set of defensive preparations” including minefields, trenches and dragon’s teeth tank obstacles. He said Ukraine has had “partial success” and that it has “a significant amount of combat power remaining,” so the campaign “is not over yet.” His comments follow reports that Western officials are concerned about the progress and speed of the counteroffensive and whether Ukraine is employing the right tactics. Milley did say that a near term outright Ukrainian military victory is not likely, citing the large numbers of Russian troops facing Ukraine’s military and added that “negotiations” could be a way to end the war. Milley also said that Ukraine is likely to receive F-16 fighter jets “in the not-too distant future,” adding that a training program for Ukrainian pilots has been established. The U.S. has pledged to host some training, and the Netherlands, Denmark and Norway have committed to sending the jets to Kyiv. Milley said that the U.S. still has not decided whether to send long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to Ukraine. The Biden administration has been hesitant to send ATACMS to Ukraine despite growing pressure, over concerns that the weapons will be used to strike targets inside Russian territory. Al Jazeera Reuters
Top Argentinian Presidential Candidates Reject BRICS Membership. Leading presidential candidates in Argentina have opposed the country’s membership in BRICS. The bloc has invited the South American country to join on January 1 along with Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and the UAE. The frontrunner candidate Javier Milei said that if he wins the presidential election in October, his government will only work with countries that defend liberty, peace, democracy and free trade, noting that “some countries are not along those lines.” He said that the private sector will still be able to do business freely. Opposition candidate Patricia Bullrich said that if she wins, Argentina will not be a part of BRICS, adding that the country “is in a position of enormous weakness” for committing to join the bloc alongside Iran and during the Ukraine war. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said that he will negotiate with whoever Argentina’s new president will be on the matter. Bloomberg
U.S. Sanctions Six for Alleged Role in Eastern Congo Conflict. The US on Thursday sanctioned six Rwandan and Congolese associates of militias or the armed forces due to their suspected involvement in destabilizing eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. The U.S. Treasury Department said the sanctioned individuals included four top members of rebel armed groups as well as one Rwandan and one Congolese senior officer. The treasury's undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, Brian Nelson, said that "today's sanctions reflect the United States' commitment to advancing efforts to resolve the crisis and address the dire humanitarian situation." He added that "all sides in the conflict are responsible for serious human rights abuses including, but not limited to, intentional targeting of civilian populations through sexual violence." In November 2021, Rwandan-supported March 23 Movement (M23) annexed parts of Congo's North Kivu province, leading to a conflict that has displaced millions and created a humanitarian catastrophe. Media reports say that M23, nor the Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), could be reached, and the Congolese army has not responded to requests for comment. Reuters Barron's
Western Europe
Germany Investigating Suspected Poisoning of Russian Journalists, Activists. German prosecutors are investigating the attempted murder of Russian journalist Elena Kostyuchenko — one of three Russian exile journalists who have suffered symptoms consistent with poisoning. Kostyuchenko, who reported on alleged Russian war crimes in Ukraine, said she experienced extreme disorientation, abdominal pain and swollen extremities last October during a train ride from Munich to Berlin. The Insider reported that two other exiled Russian journalists experienced similar poisoning symptoms in the same period: Natalia Arno, president of the U.S.-based Free Russia Foundation fell ill in Prague in May 2023, and radio journalist Irina Babloyan fell ill in Tbilisi in October. German prosecutors have declined to provide details on their investigations into the matter, citing the sensitivity of the cases. CNN Reuters Wall Street Journal
Central and Eastern Europe
Russia Says it Destroyed Over 40 Ukrainian Drones Over Crimea. Russia’s Ministry of Defense reported early on Friday that Russian air defenses intercepted and downed 42 Ukrainian drones over the Crimean Peninsula, which Moscow annexed in 2014. The ministry claimed nine of the drones were destroyed, while 33 others were downed by electronic jamming before they reached their targets. The Moscow-backed governor of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhayev, reported on Telegram that multiple drones were destroyed over the Khersones promontory. Separately, the defense ministry stated that Russian forces destroyed a modified Ukrainian S-200 missile fired towards Moscow in the Kaluga region, just 124 miles southwest of the Russian capital. Kaluga Governor Vladislav Shapsha said that there were no casualties. Kyiv has not commented on the matter. CNN Reuters Al Jazeera
Kremlin Denies Role in Plane Crash that Reportedly Killed Prigozhin, The Kremlin on Friday denied responsibility for the plane crash that reportedly killed Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, calling Western accusations that the mercenary boss was assassinated in retaliation for his failed mutiny an "absolute lie.” Moscow refused to confirm his death, citing ongoing investigations. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, "there is now a great deal of speculation surrounding this plane crash and the tragic deaths of the plane's passengers...” Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday, in his first public comments on the matter, sent condolences to Prigozhin’s family and called Prigozhin a “talented” man but said that he had “made serious mistakes”. US President Joe Biden said Wednesday that he was not surprised by the news of Prigozhin’s death, suggesting that Putin was ultimately responsible for the plane crash. Biden’s comments drew condemnation from Russian deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov, who said that Biden’s remarks were unacceptable. At a Pentagon briefing Air Force Brig. Gen Pat Ryder said “Our initial assessment is that it is likely Prigozhin was killed,” but says that so far the US has no proof that a missile was used to take down the jet. The plane crash happened exactly two months to the day after the failed mutiny by Wagner group in June. Reuters NBC BBC Wall Street Journal
Pro-Ukrainian Russian Militants Call on Wagner Fighters to Switch Sides. Anti-Putin Russian militants are calling on the Wagner Group to join them and “switch to Ukraine’s side” to avenge the deaths of the mercenary group’s leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and commander Dmitry Utkin, who were reportedly killed in a private plane crash north of Moscow on Wednesday. The commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC) Denis Kapustin said Wagner fighters can either “stand in a stall of Russia’s defense ministry and serve as watchdogs for executors of your commanders or take revenge.” He added that Wagner and RVC should work to end the Ukraine war and then “march to Moscow,” referencing the Wagner mutiny in June. RVC claims to have launched attacks on Russian border regions. Reuters
Russia, U.S. Agree to ISS Space Flight. NASA and Russia’s Roscosmos space agency agreed to a space flight for an American astronaut on board a Russian Soyuz MS spacecraft. A top Russian space official said the flight is meant to “compensate” for an American astronaut who “has been essentially left (on board the International Space Station) for two missions.” The flight, which is part of an agreement for cross-flights to the ISS, is a rare show of bilateral cooperation between Washington and Moscow amid high tensions over Ukraine. Russia has said it will leave the ISS and establish its own space station, though it has not detailed when or how it will do so. Reuters
Asia and Oceania
Taiwan Reports Renewed Chinese Military Activity Around Island. The Taiwanese defense ministry says that Chinese military activity has resumed around the self-governing island, with five ships performing combat readiness patrols and 13 aircraft flying into Taiwan's "response" zone. Taiwan deployed ships and aircraft to observe the Chinese aircraft, which it says included bombers, fighters, and early warning aircraft and drones. Taipei has not specified where exactly its “response” zone is, though it closely monitors the Taiwan Strait and areas south of the island. China on Saturday held military drills around the island in retaliation for Vice President William Lai’s brief stops in the US. Reuters
Taiwan’s Tsai Visiting African Ally Eswatini. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen is set to visit Eswatini, Taipei's last African ally, in early September. Due to Chinese influence, Taipei has been left with only 13 formal allies, and seeks to deepen ties with Eswatini, formerly known as Swaziland. Taiwanese deputy foreign minister Roy Lee reported that Tsai will travel to the country from September 5th-7th for the nation’s 55th anniversary, accompanied by Economy Minister Wang Mei-hua. Tsai last visited Eswatini, an absolute monarchy, in 2018. Reuters
Australia to Conduct More Joint Patrols with the Philippines. While overseeing military drills with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on Friday, Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles said that Australia has a security interest in the disputed South China Sea and will cooperate more with the Philippines on joint patrols. Currently, the Philippine navy and two Australian navy ships, HMAS Canberra and HMAS ANZAC, are performing bilateral drills, and more than 2,000 Australian and Philippine troops, in addition to U.S. Marines, are engaging in air assault and amphibious landing exercises. Marcos told reporters that Manila seeks a deeper working relationship with the armies of its neighbors, adding that, “it is an important aspect of how we prepare for any eventualities, considering there have been so many events that attest to the volatility of the region." Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has expressed interest in visiting the Philippines next month for defense collaboration talks. Reuters
Fiji PM Hopes China, U.S. Competition Will Not Lead to Military Conflict. Fiji’s Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka said he hopes that the Pacific Islands region will remain a “zone of peace,” and that the competition between the US and China will not erupt into military conflict. In a video address published by Fiji’s government on Friday, Rabuka said Beijing and Washington "are trying to polarize the Pacific into their own camps, so we have to be very certain that whatever we do, we are mindful of the collective need of the Pacific to be a zone of peace, a zone of non-aligned territories.” Rabuka on Thursday attended a gathering of the Melanesian Spearhead Group leaders in Vanuatu, with the heads of Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands, Fiji and New Caledonia's ruling FLNKS party. Due to their strategic locations, the five South Pacific nations have been thrust to the core of a rivalry between global powers. Reuters
Japan to Launch Lunar Mission on Sunday. Japan is following India and Russia with a planned moon mission this weekend. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) is scheduled to launch its H2-A rocket on Sunday morning, carrying an advanced imaging satellite and a lander set to land on the lunar surface in January or February. The mission will follow several setbacks for JAXA over the past year, including the failed launch of a next-generation rocket and a failed first attempt to launch commercial satellites. Bloomberg
Beijing Targets CIA in Anti-Espionage Drive. China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS) recently made its social media debut by publicizing the case of two Chinese nationals accused of spying for the US. In a WeChat post on August 1, the MSS said the pair were recruited by the CIA while living overseas and called on the Chinese public to help build a “people’s line of defense for national security” against further covert threats. The focus on the CIA in the disclosures came after CIA Director William Burns commented in July that his agency has “made progress” in rebuilding operations in China. His remarks referred to an intelligence breach in the early 2010s that allowed Beijing to dismantle most of the American spy network in China. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson responded by saying Burns’s comments were “rather concerning” and that China would “take all measures necessary to safeguard its national security.” U.S. officials later announced in August that two U.S. Navy sailors were arrested for allegedly providing military secrets to Chinese intelligence officers. Wall Street Journal
China Reportedly Testing World’s Most Powerful Coil Gun. China’s navy is reportedly testing what it says is the world’s most powerful coil gun, an electromagnetically powered weapon that launches projectiles. Scientists developing the weapon say a firing test launched a 273-pound object to a speed of 435 miles per hour in less than 0.05 seconds. If accurate, the projectile is the heaviest to be used in a known coil gun experiment. The weapon is still under development, and it is unclear when or if China will deploy it in the field. Coil guns could revolutionize warfare since they could allow for faster, more accurate attacks on enemy targets. The technology could also be used to launch missiles or send satellites into space. South China Morning Post
Middle East and Northern Africa
Iran Holds ‘Electronic Warfare’ Anti-Drone Drills. Iranian state TV reports that Iran’s military conducted “electronic warfare” drills to test defenses against drones on Friday. Iran’s navy, ground and air forces were involved in the exercises, which used domestically made radars, drones, micro aerial vehicles, and manned and unmanned fighter jets. Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari, deputy chief of the Iranian army’s coordination department, said the exercises showed “favorable results” for Iran’s anti-drone capabilities. Iran announced on Tuesday that it has developed a new military drone named Mohajer-10, which has an increased flight range, duration and payload capacity. The U.S. has accused Iran of sending drones to Russia for use in its invasion of Ukraine, which Tehran denies. Reuters
Sub Saharan Africa
Niger Forms Alliance with Mali, Burkina Faso Troops to Prepare for Potential Attack. In a joint statement released Thursday, Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso said that Niger will permit the armed forces of Mali and Burkina Faso to intervene within its territory in the event of an armed invasion. This comes as tensions rise due potential military intervention in Niger by the West African bloc ECOWAS to restore democracy following a coup in July. The foreign ministers of Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali met in Niamey on Thursday for talks on strengthening collaboration on various issues such as security. According to the joint statement, junta chief General Abdourahamane Tchiani signed two orders "authorizing the Defense and Security Forces of Burkina Faso and Mali to intervene on Nigerien territory in the event of an attack." The statement reiterated their rejection of an armed intervention against the people of Niger which will be considered as a “declaration of war.” Reuters France 24
China’s Xi Pledges to Back Africa’s Industrialization. Chinese President Xi Jinping met with African leaders on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in South Africa to tell them that Beijing is launching initiatives to support the continent’s “industrialization and economic diversification.” Xi did not provide specific details, though China’s top Africa diplomat Wu Peng said this week that African countries are seeking Chinese support for local industrialization. China’s official Xinhua news agency added that China will work to boost African agricultural productivity to help the continent achieve food self-sufficiency. Analysts said the rhetoric comes after a decline in Chinese infrastructure project financing in Africa. Experts also noted that it makes sense for Chinese companies to move manufacturing operations to Africa due to over-capacity in China. Reuters
Cyber and Tech
Microsoft Says Chinese Hackers Mounting Cyber Espionage Attacks Against Taiwan. Dozens of organizations in Taiwan are the targets of a cyberespionage campaign conducted by hackers with suspected links to the Chinese government, according to Microsoft researchers. Microsoft calls the group Flax Typhoon and says that from a base in China the group is mounting attacks against Taiwan government departments and manufacturing and tech companies. The group also has launched attacks against targets in Southeast Asia, North America, and Africa. Microsoft reports the group operates with a low profile using minimal malware applications, relying instead on tools within target organization systems. Microsoft noted in a blog post that “although our visibility into these threats has given us the ability to deploy detections to our customers, the lack of visibility into other parts of the actor’s activity compelled us to drive broader community awareness to further investigations and protections across the security ecosystem.” Researchers noted that Flax Typhoon has been active since 2021 and has employed the China Chopper web shell. Flax Typhoon’s attack toolkit also includes Metasploit, a popular penetration testing framework; the Juicy Potato privilege escalation tool; Mimikatz, the data exfiltration tool; and the SoftEther virtual private network (VPN) client. CyberScoop The Record
Experts Point to ‘Contradictory’ Elements of Administration AI Policy Documents. Experts have discovered that AI policy documents released by the Biden administration contain elements that are contradictory and confusing. Specifically, the White House “Blueprint for an AI Bill of Rights” and the AI Risk Management Framework (RMF) issued by the National institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) appear to have conflicting components. Daniel Castro, vice president at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF), told FedScoop there are “big, major philosophical differences in the approach taken by the two Biden AI policy documents.” Nicole Foster, an executive with Amazon Web Services, said chief among the concerns with the documents are the different ways they define the technology, noting “at a basic level they don’t even define things like AI in the same way.” Hodan Omaar, an AI and quantum research scholar working with Castro at ITIF, said the Blueprint and RMF are perceived by industry as taking two different tracks. He suggested the White House “should better elucidate the ways the Blueprint should be used in conjunction with the RMF. And second, it should better engage with stakeholders to gather input on how the Blueprint can be improved and better implemented by organizations.” Arati Prabhakar, director of the White House Office of Science & Technology Policy, maintained in a letter that “these documents are not contradictory.” She highlighted the close collaboration of the White House and NIST in developing policy foundations for future regulation of the technology. FedScoop
Pro-Ukrainian Hackers Seize Website of Russian Firm Involved in Military Transport. A pro-Ukrainian hacking group, Nebula, has announced that it seized control of the website of Tehtrans, a company involved in the transportation of Russian military goods. The hackers posted a note claiming to have encrypted the Tehtrans network, including its “railway servers.” The note went on to say, “it's hard work after all, having to assist in smuggling Russian military equipment into Ukraine.” Other postings by Nebula thanked Tehtrans for “the 3.5 TB worth of data,” which is equal to approximately 56 million documents. Nebula said that “we will be sure to make all of them publicly available in the coming days.” A separate note written in English said that the website had been seized “due to your cooperation in Russian military operations.” In the past, Nebula has taken credit for multiple other hacks on Russian government computers, which it has then made publicly available. Kyiv Post
South Korean Internet Firm Introduces Generative AI Product Family. The largest South Korean Internet search company, Naver, announced its forthcoming generative AI service, HyperClova X, on Thursday, saying that it boasts the best understanding of South Korean culture, history, and regulations. HyperClova X incorporates Cue, a generative AI-enabled search engine that will be launched in September, and the Clova X chatbot, which was rolled out on Thursday. Clova X features improved web search, online shopping, and navigation services. Nako Sung, head of Technology and Hypersacale AI at Naver Cloud, said that Cue performed better than ChatGPT-3.5 in internal testing, and expressed confidence that the model can effectively compete with rivals. He said the company is using a localization strategy to target the South Korean market first, adding "we bet on South Korea, so we are developing a small, specialized model." Naver Cloud also is developing CLOVA X multimodal language models to analyze and generate not only text but images, videos, and audio. Sung said the company plans to release Clova X multimodal language models in the near future. Nikkei Asia Reuters TechCrunch
Study Reveals Trends, Patterns in Ransomware, Data Theft Attacks. A trend by ransomware threat actors to spend less time inside breached systems has been noted in a study by the Sophos cybersecurity firm, which said hackers’ median dwell time fell from nine days in 2022 to five in the first half of 2023. The overall dwell time for all cyberattacks was down to eight days so far this year, from 10 days in 2022. Sophos also noted that ransomware attacks accounted for 68.75 percent of all cyberattacks recorded by the company this year. An increase from 11 to 13 days dwell time for non-ransomware incidents suggests to analysts that attackers performing network intrusions "tend to linger" and wait for opportunities. The average dwell time stands at 15-16 days across all cases, while the maximum observed this year was over three months. Sophos also identified interesting patterns in the days and times that attacks occur, noting a preference among threat actors, including ransomware operators, for Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays. Also, hackers attack targets late in the work day when IT teams are understaffed and unlikely to detect network intrusions. Sophos found that most ransomware incidents occur on Fridays and Saturdays when companies are slowest to react. BleepingComputer
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