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10:00 AM ET, Friday, August 11, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

Biden calls China “Ticking Time Bomb” over Beijing’s Economic Challenges.  President Joe Biden said China’s economic challenges are like a “ticking time bomb” and referred to China’s leadership as “bad people”.  Biden’s comments, at a fundraiser in Utah, are some of his most direct criticism yet for Beijing and come at a time when the US is also trying to stabilize relations with China.  Biden cited slowing economic growth and challenging labor conditions in China as contributing factors to China’s economic woes and said that China has “some huge problems” and that when “bad folks have problems, they do bad things,”.  China called the comments, which come one day after Biden signed a new executive order limiting US investment in China, a “provocation”.  Bloomberg South China Morning Post \

Biden Requests $40 Billion in Additional Funding from Congress.  President Biden is seeking an additional $40 billion in funding from Congress to fund US commitments in the first quarter of Fiscal Year 2024.  Of the total, $24 billion would go to support Ukraine’s war against Russia, with $4 billion for US border security and $12 billion allocated to replenish federal emergency funds.  The request mark’s Biden’s first emergency funding request since Republican’s assumed control of the House of Representatives in January.  Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said there was strong bi-partisan support in the Senate for the request, with Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell saying he was looking forward to reviewing the request.  House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy however, says the request will “go nowhere” in the house, and that additional funding for Ukraine should come from the Pentagon’s discretionary spending authority.  Al Jazeera Reuters

New US Intelligence Strategy Released. US Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Avril Haines released an updated National Intelligence Strategy this week that calls on the intelligence community (IC) to partner more closely with private sector, non-governmental organizations and academia to combat emerging threats.  The strategy calls on the IC to “rethink its approach to exchanging information and insights” and says that intelligence agencies must partner with different types of organizations to combat the myriad of modern threats resulting from supply chain disruptions, pandemics and malign influence campaigns.  The updated strategy also calls for the US intelligence community, which is composed of 18 agencies with an annual budget of $90 billion to better support US efforts to counter peer to peer competition with authoritarian governments in China and Russia.  Wall Street Journal

NASA Chief Says Moon’s Contested South Pole could become ‘Another South China Sea.”  Nasa Chief Bill Nelson said the US and China are in a race to establish bases on the moon’s south pole, which is believed to contain water, and that Beijing will seek to occupy the region and push out other nations like it has already “done with the Spratly Islands.” Speaking on Tuesday at the Kennedy Space Centre in Florida, Nelson said, “you see the actions of the Chinese government on Earth. They go out and claim some international islands in the South China Sea as theirs, and build military runways on them . . . I don’t want China to get to the south pole first with humans and then say ‘this is ours, stay out.’” Nelson emphasized the need to “to protect the interest of the international community” and prevent Beijing from monopolizing the zone, and the water that may be there. However, space policy expert Brian Weeden said the region is too large to be claimed by one power, and argued that any competition to arrive first is unnecessary. The American Artemis program and the Chinese International Lunar Research Station both have goals to install a permanent base with humans at the moon’s south pole, and China seeks to land astronauts there by 2030. South China Morning Post

Police Say Suspects in Fernando Villavicencio assassination are Colombian.  Ecuadorian police said Thursday that one suspect is dead and six others have been arrested in the assassination of Fernando Villavicencio, an Ecuadorian presidential candidate.  Officials say that all of the suspects are Colombian. Additionally, the government said that they were continuing to pursue the “intellectual authors” of the assassination. The fatal shooting occurred Wednesday night, less than two weeks before the election. According to the government, the dead suspect was arrested in July on weapons charges, and the six others reportedly belong to organized crime groups. President Guillermo Lasso said that the assassination was an attempt to sabotage the election but that the election would continue as planned on August 20th. Lasso asked the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) to assist in the investigation and that a delegation would be arriving soon. The FBI confirmed that it was assisting the government.  Reuters  NY Times

Western Europe

Germany to Own NATO's 2nd Largest Helicopter Fleet after Chinook Purchases. German Air Force Chief Ingo Gerhartz said Friday that Germany is set to own NATO’s 2nd largest helicopter fleet after the purchase of 60 Chinook helicopters from Boeing in a deal worth up to $8.7 billion. Gerhartz told German media in an interview that, “we will be the second largest helicopter nation in NATO after the U.S.” He said that nearly 50 Chinook helicopters would be stationed at eastern Germany’s Holzdorf/Schoenewalde site, where 1,000 extra soldiers would be deployed. Gerhartz added that "the Schoenewalde site will play a unique key role for the Air Force, the entire Bundeswehr and Germany's security."  Reuters

Poland Plans to Deploy Around 10,000 Soldiers to Border with Belarus.  Poland has plans to deploy around 10,000 additional troops to its shared eastern border with Belarus, as tensions rise in the area due to the presence of Russia’s Wagner Group mercenaries, who are engaged in training Belarusian soldiers. Polish Defense Minister, Mariusz Blaszczak reported on the public radio that 4,000 troops will support the border guard, while the remaining 6,000 will stay in reserve. Blaszczak, explaining the choice to send the soldiers, cited alleged breaches in Polish airspace by two military aircraft; he said “the violation of Polish space by Belarusian helicopters cannot be underestimated because of the Belarusian approach . . . everything that is happening in Belarus is coordinated with the actions of the Russians.” Separately, Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has also spoken about fortifying its western borders with troops, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.  CNN

Central and Eastern Europe

Ukraine Evacuates Thousands as Russian Military Presses on Northern Front.  Ukrainian officials on Thursday ordered the compulsory evacuation of almost 12,000 civilians in 37 villages and towns in the northeastern region of Kharkiv as Russian units continue the attempt to push through the front lines. According to the local military administration in Kharkiv’s Kupiansk district, if residents refuse to comply with the order, they must sign a document saying they would stay at their own risk. In September of 2022, the Ukrainian military managed to force out Russian occupation in the city of Kupiansk, a crucial rail junction, and the areas around it, and now Moscow has again focused its attention on regaining the territory. A spokesman for Ukraine's eastern forces, Sergiy Cherevaty, said on television, “Russians are trying to prevail [in the Kupiansk area] and break through our defense... the situation remains difficult but under control.” On Wednesday, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said “the intensity of combat and enemy shelling is high” in the zone. Ukraine National Guard spokesman Ruslan Muzychuk said Russia has deployed assault units supported by aviation, tank units, and artillery in the Kupiansk district.  Associated Press Deutsche Welle France 24 

How Russia Obtains Vital War Parts Despite Sanctions.  The BBC is out with a report that examines how, despite sanctions from various Western powers, Russia continues to obtain the equipment and parts it needs to fuel its war. The British government on Tuesday revealed what it calls “the largest ever UK action” with new sanctions targeting Russia’s ability to acquire foreign military materials. Despite an unprecedented level of western sanctions, Russia has still managed thus far to continue its conflict by finding and purchasing electronic components, primarily built in the US, Japan, Germany, UK, Netherlands, Israel and China, that are used in ballistic and cruise missiles. To purchase these small but crucial pieces of Western technology, such as microchips necessary for weaponry, Moscow has turned to third country intermediaries like China or Hong Kong. According to a report by Kyiv's KSE Institute and the Yermak-McFaul International Working Group on Russian Sanctions, "there are numerous companies…willing to take substantial risks to fulfill Russian procurement demands." These companies are located all over the world, including China, Turkey, India, the Czech Republic, Serbia, Armenia, and Kazakhstan. In May, the UK, EU and US urged companies to "undertake due diligence to ensure that the end destination of these products is not Russia." The newest UK sanctions suggest that the West has become more aware of the Kremlin’s association with third party intermediaries. BBC  

Russia, Racing India, Launches First Moon Mission since 1976.  Russia on Friday launched its first moon mission in almost 50 years as Moscow races to land on the moon before an Indian spacecraft, which took off on July 14th. The rocket, carrying a lunar landing craft, was launched from Russia’s Vostochny spaceport in the Far East without aid from the European Space Agency, and is expected to reach the moon on the 23rd of August, around the same time as the Indian spacecraft. India and Russia each seek to be the first country to land on the moon’s south pole. Moscow’s space agency, Roscosmos, said it will show Russia “is a state capable of delivering a payload to the moon,” and “ensure Russia’s guaranteed access to the moon’s surface.” Vitaly Egorov, a Russian space analyst, argued that the launch is less about the study of the moon and more about power; “The goal is political competition between two superpowers — China and the USA — and a number of other countries which also want to claim the title of space superpower.”  Associated Press Wall Street Journal Al Jazeera  

Asia and Oceania

North Korea Continues Developing Nuclear Weapons Program.  According to an unpublished U.N. report seen by Reuters, North Korea continued developing its nuclear weapons, producing fissile material in 2023 and dodging U.N. sanctions that aim to financially isolate its nuclear and other missile programs. Sanctions monitors reported to a U.N. Security Council committee, that “after a record-breaking level of cyber thefts in 2022, estimated at $1.7 billion, DPRK (North Korean) hackers reportedly continued to successfully target cyber cryptocurrency and other financial exchanges globally”. This comes as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un sacked his top military general and called for expanded war preparations earlier Thursday. The UN monitors also said that they are investigating alleged North Korean military communications exports, ammunition exports, and “possible cases of sales by the DPRK of arms or other types of military support to member states”.  Reuters

NZ intelligence aware of intelligence activity linked to China.  New Zealand authorities released a report Friday saying that the country is aware of intelligence activity linked to China aimed against the island nation and the region. The New Zealand Intelligence Service (NZSIS) said that “this is a complex intelligence concern for New Zealand. The report titled “New Zealand’s Security Threat Environment 2023” is being published publicly as part of a government effort to better inform its citizens of the international risks the country is facing. Director-general of security for NZSIS Andrew Hampton said in a statement that “competition between states is becoming more acute” and added that the competition is prompting some states to seek advantage through subversive and dishonest means such as espionage and foreign interference. The report also noted that extremist ideologies also pose an increasing risk to New Zealand.   Reuters

Middle East and Northern Africa

U.S. Reaches Deal with Iran to Free Americans for Jailed Iranians and Funds.  The United States and Iran have reportedly reached a deal that will secure the release of five detained Americans who have been jailed in Iran.  The deal will also see the release of several Iranian prisoners and eventually lead to Iran having access to $6 billion in Iranian oil revenue that is currently frozen.  The effort to secure their release has included 2 years of “quiet negotiations” according to US officials.  NY Times

Sub Saharan Africa

ECOWAS Activates reserve force for possible military intervention in Niger.  The West African regional economic bloc (ECOWAS) activated a standby military force for the possible intervention against the junta in Niger after it seized power in July. ECOWAS continues to call for the peaceful abdication of power and reinstatement of a democratic society in Niger but continues to say that all options are on the table to accomplish this goal. The junta has defied an August 6 deadline by ECOWAS to stand down and has since closed Niger’s airspace and vowed to defend the nation against any foreign intervention. After an ECOWAS summit this week, the bloc pledged to enforce sanctions, travel bans, and asset freezes on those preventing the return to power for the ousted Niger President Mohamed Bazoum. Security analysts say that a regional military force could take weeks to assemble, leaving the possibility to negotiations open. Prior to the coup in Niger, ECOWAS had planned to create a standby military force of thousands of troops but was held back by funding delays and insufficient troop commitments by the member states according to IIkemesit Effiong, a researcher at SBM intelligence in Nigeria. The statement did not specify which countries would participate, how the force would be funded and the amounts of troops and equipment the ECOWAS member states could contribute. Reuters

Niger Junta Warned They’d Kill Ousted President After any Military Interference, Says Western Officials.  Niger’s ruling junta warned U.S. Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland that they would kill deposed President Mohamed Bazoum if foreign countries attempted any military intervention in the country to restore democracy, according to two unnamed Western officials who spoke with The Associated Press. Aneliese Bernard, the director of Strategic Stabilization Advisors and a former U.S. State Department official, suggested that the threats and rising tensions may force the junta and the West African bloc ECOWAS to talk, but cautioned “still, this junta has escalated its moves so quickly that it’s possible they do something more extreme, as that has been their approach so far.” Associated Press

Cyber and Tech

NSA chief says Chinese cyber spies continue to improve but not yet at US level.  Army Gen. Paul Nakasone, the outgoing director of the National Security Agency (NSA) and U.S. Cyber Command said Thursday that China has not yet surpassed the United States in cyber espionage despite several successful and high-profile hacks linked to Beijing. In response to a question at a discussion at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Nakasone acknowledged the high-profile attacks and added that Chinese hackers continue to improve in their scope and sophistication of their attacks. Nakasone also said that he remains “very concerned” about issues the NSA made public concerning China “living off the land”, embedding itself in a nation’s critical infrastructure to utilize in the future. In response to this growing problem, he commented: “why are they doing that? Why are they in our critical infrastructure? That's the thing that we are addressing today,” he said. “If you're in our critical infrastructure, it's not to collect intelligence”. The Record

Top Ukrainian Cyber official touts country’s wartime cyber intelligence efforts. According to Ukraine’s top cyber and information security official, intelligence gathered in the cyber domain is helping Ukraine understand Russia’s plans and stop them from carrying them out. Illia Vitiuk, head of cybersecurity at Ukraine’s Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said that Ukrainian hackers had been able to infiltrate Russian computer systems, find their military targets, movement plans for troops, and how Russia intends to avoid Western sanctions. Vitiuk added that “cyber intelligence helps us to obtain top-secret enemy documents,”. “In the past, we had to recruit a spy in the enemy's country to get this kind of material, which was risky and time-consuming”. He also stressed the importance of leaked Russian documents on the war effort and highlighted the recent hack of MosgorBTI, a website that gathers real estate information in Moscow. He said that this hack is an example of a successful data leak and that because of the attack “we know what properties Russian politicians, military, and special services own”. Additionally, Vitiuk said that another great source of intelligence are the chatbots running on Telegram. This cybersecurity news comes as the SBU said that they prevented an attempt by Russian-state controlled hackers to break into the Ukrainian battlefield management system. The Record

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