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Monday, April 24, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

Americas

US Conducts Special Operations Mission to Evacuate Diplomatic Personnel from Sudan.  The US has conducted a military operation to evacuate all US government personnel from Khartoum.  The operation reportedly involved approximately 100 US special operations forces and rotary wing aircraft including MH 47 Chinook and V22 Ospreys.  A State Department official says fewer than 100 US personnel were evacuated, along with a small number from other nations' embassies, and that the US was temporarily suspending its Embassy operations in Sudan. President Biden thanked the governments of Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Saudi Arabia who aided the evacuation operation. US forces were on the ground for less than one hour. The State Department added that currently there are currently no plans to conduct evacuations for more than 16,000 private US citizens who are still in Sudan, although there are ongoing discussions about establishing a US Navy presence near the port of Sudan. Separately, DoD is considering leveraging its intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities to facilitate egress via overland routes, according to Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Warfare Christopher Maier. CNN Politico Reuters France24 New York Times Politico U.S. Department of Defense

Airman May Have Shared Classified Intelligence Longer than Previously Thought.  The New York Times says the airman accused of leaking classified intelligence likely began posting classified information earlier than previously thought, and to a much larger Discord group. The Times’ investigation says that a review of online postings by a user who matched the profile of Airman Teixeira show that less than 48 hours after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the user began posting information related to the war, including intelligence related to US supplies to Ukraine, assessments of Russian intelligence activities, and casualty assessments. The user claimed to work at a U.S. Air Force Intelligence Unit, and claimed to be posting information from the NSA, CIA, and other intelligence agencies. The Times says it learned about the second Discord group from a Discord user and that it was reported to have at least 600 members. It is unclear if US officials are aware of the classified information posted in this additional Discord group. Airman Teixeira’s attorney declined to comment; NSA, FBI, and Justice Department officials also declined to comment. New York Times Reuters

Senate Intel Panel Chairman Seeks to Limit Access to Secret US Docs. In light of the recent Pentagon leaks, Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee Mark Warner is seeking to appoint a central entity to supervise the classification process of US secrets, as he claimed on Sunday that too many people have access to confidential information. The Virginia Democrat advocated for a “smaller universe” for such documents, due to the fact that 4 million people have high-level clearance, and asserted that reading the headline of certain reports rather than the entire document should be enough for most people. Warner’s recommendation will most likely be considered by the Biden administration, as they seek to crackdown on leaks.  Reuters

Biden to “Make Clear” US Commitment to South Korea on Protection from Nuclear Threat.  President Biden plans to take significant steps to demonstrate US commitment to the safety of South Korea next week during a summit and state visit in the US with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol.  A senior US official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told Reuters that the US is working "extraordinarily and intensively” with the South Koreans to shore up both public perception of the nuclear threat from North Korea and the practical reality of the US commitment.  The official touted as success the fact that a number of nations in the Indo-Pacific region have chosen not to develop nuclear weapons as a result of the assurances of the US ‘nuclear umbrella’.  To that end, the official says Biden will ‘make clear’ the US commitment to South Korea in the face of increasing threats from North Korea, ‘saber rattling’ from Russia and China’s own nuclear ambitions.  Reuters

Brazil's Lula Not Trying to 'Please Anyone' Over Ukraine. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva says he doesn't want to ‘please anyone’ with his views on the Ukraine war.  His comments came at the start of his visit to Lisbon, which marks his first European visit since becoming Brazil’s president.  He says he is focused on finding ways to bring Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table.  Reuters  

U.S. Discourages S.K. from Filling Market Gap in China if Beijing Bans Micron Tech. The Financial Times has reported that the United States urged the South Korean government to tell its chip manufacturers to not attempt to close any market gaps in China. This comes as Beijing considers banning chipmaker Micron Technology Inc from selling chips in the country as it is currently under investigation. Back in March, China’s cyberspace regulator announced a security review of the products that the company sells in the country. The White House has not commented on the report.  Reuters 

U.S. Dollar on Steadier Ground This Week, Policy Makers Expected to Raise Rates. The euro has neared a nine-year high versus the Japanese yen today, at the start of a closely-watched week that will include a Bank of Japan meeting and the last few data releases before Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) rate decisions next month. Policymakers are widely expected to raise rates by another 25 basis points next week at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, and markets also expect the ECB to raise points by at least 25 basis points. Reuters 

U.S. Fed Reexamining 2019 Decision to Loosen Rules for Midsize Banks. In the wake of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the Federal Reserve is reportedly actively considering closing a loophole that has for several years allowed some mid-sized banks to effectively mask losses on securities they hold. Regulators are considering the change after the sudden collapses of SVB and Signature Bank last month. If adopted, it would reverse the Fed’s 2019 loosening of rules, which limited restrictions to only the largest, most complex banks, and enhance oversight of midsize banks. The toughened restrictions would probably apply to about 30 companies with between $100 billion and $700 billion in assets, according to unnamed sources, and would be phased in over a couple of years. Banks say the change could lead to higher government borrowing costs and mortgage rates. Wall Street Journal

Ex-Peruvian President Toledo Returned to Peru on Sunday. Former Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo was returned to Peru as he became the third former head of state to be investigated and imprisoned as part of a corruption scandal. Toledo, who was extradited back to Peru by the United States, has been ordered to serve a pre-trial 18 month detention in a prison outside of Lima, but his lawyer said he will be seeking house arrest due to “health issues.” Toledo is being accused of receiving $35 million in bribes from a Brazilian construction company in exchange for granting the company a contract for the Interoceanica Sur highway. Associated Press Reuters 

Migrant “Protest” Caravan Enroute to Mexico City. Around 3,000 migrants left the Mexican city of Tapachula, near the Guatemalan border, on Sunday and are aiming to reach Mexico City to demand changes in the way that Mexico treats detained migrants. Usually, such processions have continued on to the U.S. border; it is unclear if the protesters will ultimately pursue that as their final destination. A protest organizer said that they are demanding the dissolution of Mexico’s immigration agency, which officials have blamed in a March 27 fire at a detention center in Ciudad Juarez that killed 40 people. Mexican prosecutors have said that they will press charges against Francisco Garduño, the head of Mexico’s immigration agency; he is scheduled to appear in court on April 21. Six other immigration officials, a guard at the detention center, and the Venezuelan migrant accused of starting the fire are already in custody facing homicide charges. Reuters Politico

Western Europe

Paris, Kyiv & Baltic Strongly Oppose China Envoy’s Comments on Ukraine Sovereignty.  France, Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania all expressed opposition to recent comments made by China’s ambassador to France Lu Shaye.  Lu gave an interview on French TV last week where he questioned the sovereignty of Ukraine and other former Soviet states, saying  there was no international agreement to “materialize their sovereign status”.  A French foreign ministry spokesperson pushed back on those comments, saying that the international community, including China, recognized Ukraine’s borders in 1991 which included Crimea.  The spokesperson added that Beijing will now have to clarify if its official position is consistent with Lu’s comments.  Reuters Deutsche Welle Al Jazeera

Western Allies Announce Plans to Bolster Ukraine’s Tank Units. CNN reports that the US military will begin training Ukrainian troops on the Abrams tank next month.  The training will be conducted in Germany and will include about 250 Ukrainian troops.  The announcement followed the most recent meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Germany last week.  At that meeting, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley said that Ukraine's military was performing well, and that morale was high compared to Russian forces which he said are still spending significant resources in the battle for Bakhmut, with very little gain to show for it.  Germany says it will also establish a maintenance base in Poland to repair German-made Leopard tanks.  The German Defense minister also said training for Ukrainian troops on Leopard tanks would begin soon and that progress on delivering the 80 tanks  that Germany has pledged by mid- 2023 to is moving swiftly.   CNN Reuters France24

Germany to End Patriot Missile Deployments in Poland & Slovakia.  The German military will end its Patriot missile deployments in Poland and Slovaki a spokesperson for the German Ministry of Defense told German media.  The deployments began after two Polish citizens were killed by a stray Ukrainian missile last November.  Germany, which had 36 Patriot missile units at the height of the cold war, now has 11 and says its decision to end the temporary deployments was necessary as it tries to manage limited resources.  Reuters

Brazil's Embraer to Produce NATO-approved aircraft in Portugal.  Brazilian aircraft manufacturer Embraer will begin producing aircraft in Portugal that meet NATO requirements.  The announcement was made by Brazil’s Defense Minister Jose Mucio on Friday as part of a Brazilian state visit to Portugal. Mucio said that past aircraft manufactured in Brazil did not always meet NATO requirements, and the new partnership in Portugal will open up new opportunities for Brazil’s defense industry.  Reuters

$2.24 trillion: Global Military Spending Rises to All-Time High. A report released on Monday by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has found that global military spending in 2022 has reached an all time high of $2.24 trillion. Europe had a 13% growth, the most in at least 30 years. Much of the growth is attributed to The War in Ukraine according to SIPRI, the report was part of SIPRI’s annual global military expenditure report.  Al Jazeera 

Central & Eastern Europe

Moscow Expels German Diplomats in Retaliatory Move.  The Russian Foreign Ministry announced on Saturday that Moscow was expelling more than 20 diplomats in a tit-for-tat move following Germany’s decision to expel Russian diplomats.  The Russian Foreign ministry said in a statement that it strongly condemned the move by Berlin, which it said ‘continues to defiantly destroy the entire array of Russian-German relations”.  Reuters Politico

Explosive Device Found in Belgorod Forces Evacuations of Apartment Buildings.  Russian authorities say they evacuated 17 apartment buildings in Belgorod after an explosive device was found.  The device was removed and destroyed in a controlled detonation.  The incident followed what authorities said was an accidental release of a bomb by a Russian SU 34 bomber on Thursday which injured three people and left a large crater. Authorities did not say if the explosive device that was found was connected to the SU 34 accident, or separate from the bomb that was dropped. Associated Press

Russia Claims More Incremental Gains in Bakhmut.  Russia’s Defense Ministry said on Sunday that its forces had advanced by two blocks in the embattled city of Bakhmut.  Ukrainian forces maintain their defense of the city and say they are still able to get supplies in and casualties out of the city, despite claims by Russian forces to have taken control of a ‘few hundred yards’ of one of the remaining routes into and out of the city.  Reuters Washington Post 

Moscow Selects new Commanders for Baltic and Pacific Fleets.  Russian media reports say that Moscow has named new commanders for its Baltic and Pacific fleets.  The former head of Russia’s Baltic Fleet, Admiral Viktor Liina will now lead the Pacific fleet, while Vice Admiral Vladimir Vorobyov has been selected as the new commander of the fleet in the Baltics.  The previous head of Russia’s Pacific Fleet, Sergei Avakyants announced his retirement, which was reportedly a surprise announcement last week.  Al Jazeera 

Russia to Conduct Military Drills in Sea of Japan. The press service of Russia’s Pacific Fleet announced today the anti-submarine destroyer Admiral Tributs will conduct a combat training exercise with mock enemy objects. The exercise will have the crew coordinate with naval helicopters to find mock enemy submarines and execute combat training drills with torpedoes. Reuters

Belarus Military Units Complete Training on Russian Nukes. The Belarusian Defense Ministry says that units have returned from Russia where they completed training on the Russian Iskander tactical missile system.  Belarus announced in early February that certain military units were in ‘autonomous control’ of the Iskander missiles that Russia had already stationed in Belarus.  It sent additional units to Russia on April 4 for additional training that included the maintenance and use of tactical nuclear warheads’ for the Iskander system.  Russia has not announced a specific timeline for moving nuclear warheads to Belarus, but Russian President Vladimir Putin said previously that storage facilities in Belarus should be completed by early July.  Reuters 

Western Weapons Deliveries Fall Short of Ukraine’s Needs, Leaked Documents Show.  Western nations have made recent progress in delivering some of the advanced weapons that have been promised to Ukraine. Patriot air defense systems from Germany, Soviet-era fighter jets from Slovakia and more artillery shells from the US have all been recently announced by officials. And the US says that training for Ukrainians on Abrams tanks will begin in Germany in the near future.  But classified military assessments that reportedly date to February and March of this year show significant gaps in what US military planners say Ukraine needs to support its upcoming offensive, and what has been actually delivered to Ukraine.  A New York Times report details shortcomings in Ukrainian supplies of tanks, air defense systems, artillery and fighter jets from the numbers that military planners say Ukraine needs to successfully support an offensive against Russia, versus what they have or has been delivered to them. (Ed. Note- General Phil Breedlove (Ret) made this point in a recent conversation with the State Secrets podcast.)  New York Times

Zelensky Signs New Law Banning Russian Names, as Part of Broader ‘Decolonization’ Effort.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy signed two new laws on Friday that aim to distance Ukraine from its past history with Russia.  The laws prohibit the use of ‘place names’ that promote or symbolize Russia and its history, and also require Ukrainians to speak the Ukraine language and have a knowledge of Ukrainian history.  The law on banning place names will go into effect in three months, after which local authorities will have six months to clear public spaces of symbols of Russia.  NY Times 

Zelensky Says Main Priority is de-Occupation.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy says that his number one goal is the de-occupation of Ukraine by Russian forces, and that the priority for allocating state resources is going towards this goal. In his daily video address on Friday, Zelenskiy also said that new military units were being formed and they would be seen on the front-lines  Deutsche Welle 

Azerbaijan Blocks Land Route from Armenia. Yesterday Azerbaijan created a checkpoint on the only land-route to the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region following claims for border shootings. By international law the region is recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but the majority of its inhabitants are ethnic Armenians and broke away from Baku 30 years ago. Yerevan denounced the checkpoint as a violation of the 2020 ceasefire, and Baku considers it their prerogative to provide better border security. Armenia called on the Russian government to implement the trilateral agreement, and the U.S. stated it is “deeply concerned” by the checkpoint which undermines regional peace efforts. Reuters

Analysis- Norway and Russia Maintain Complicated Relationship Despite Ukraine War.  The Wall Street Journal published an in-depth analysis of the complicated relationship between Russia and Norway.  Drawing on historical examples from WWII through recent history, the piece highlights the fact that after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, relations between the two countries has been strained, despite a relatively warm relationship before the Ukraine war.  Norway, a leading NATO country which shares a 120-mile border with Russia, is the only neighboring country to Russia that has not fought a war with Russia.  The two countries still cooperate on some maritime operations and Norway is the only country in the region with ports that are still open to Russian vessels.  Relations between the two countries have cooled since the start of the Ukraine war, but do continue despite Oslo’s continued support for Kyiv, a reminder, the analysis says, that despite the war in Ukraine Russia’s neighbors have to manage relations with Moscow in sometimes complicated ways.  Wall Street Journal 

Asia & Oceania 

Taiwan Says Tracking Chinese Carrier Group off its Southeast Coast.  The Taiwanese Defense Ministry announced the Chinese carrier group used in China’s war games earlier this month is about 120 nautical miles off the island’s southeast coast. This Shandong carrier group has been used repeatedly for drills in response to diplomatic interactions, including sailing through the Bashi Channel before Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen met with U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and sailing through the Taiwan Strait hours before the Chinese & U.S. presidents were scheduled to meet. Taiwan reported they are closely tracking the ships and “appropriately responding.” Reuters

China Says it Respects Sovereignty of Ex-Soviet States After EU Uproar. After China’s envoy to Paris stated that former Soviet countries “don’t have actual status in international law” in response to a question about Crimea and Ukraine, European capitals responded in outrage. Today the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced China respects the status of former Soviet member states, and they remain “objective and impartial” on issues of sovereignty. French officials stated they will have a “very firm” discussion with Chinese Ambassador Lu Shaye, who is known to be hawkish and abrasive, and EU foreign policy chief announced the block will “assess and recalibrate strategy towards China,” at today’s meeting. Reuters

China Formally Objects to South Korean President’s Comments on Taiwan.  China’s Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong has formally objected to South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s recent remarks regarding Taiwan, China's foreign ministry said.  In an exclusive interview with Reuters, Yoon said he believes that the rising tensions between China and Taiwan were due to Beijing’s attempts to change the status quo, a move Yoon says he opposes.  Sun, in a statement, said that Yoon neglected to reference the One China principle and compared the situation to the Korean peninsula, a move that Sun said is ‘totally unacceptable’.  Reuters

Japan Places Military on Alert Ahead of North Korean Satellite Launch.  Japan’s military has been placed on alert to be prepared to defend Japan’s territory against potential debris or ballistic missiles related to North Korea’s upcoming launch of its first spy satellite.  Japanese news quoted a government source that said Tokyo would deploy advanced Patriot air defense systems and Aegis-equipped destroyers to monitor for any threats related to Pyongyang’s upcoming launch, which reportedly could happen within days.  Reuters Deutsche Welle 

Philippines, China to Increase Communication to Resolve Maritime Issues.  The Philippines and China have agreed to establish additional lines of communication to allow for faster deconfliction in instances of conflict within their shared maritime territories.  The announcement came after a high-level meeting in Manila that included the Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang, the Philippine Foreign minister and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.  Marcos said Qin’s visit was ‘helpful’ in developing relations between the two countries.  The visit follows remarks by China’s ambassador to the Philippines last week where he accused Manila of stoking tensions with the decision to offer four additional military bases to the United States in an expanded defense agreement.  Reuters South China Morning Post 

Czech Republic looking to supply Vietnam with aircrafts. Last week, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala, accompanied by security firms, spent three-days in Vietnam. Diversifying Hanoi’s primarily Russian arsenal was a central topic of conversation, and by the end of the visit Hanoi announced both leaders agreed to “step up cooperation in security-defense,” and other fields. With very few options to maintain or improve old Soviet equipment, Vietnam is considering purchasing aircraft, radars, upgraded armored vehicles, and firearms from the Czech Republic and their defense industry. Reuters

China and Singapore Plan Joint Military Drills. China and Singapore will hold their first joint military exercise since 2021, as Beijing moves to strengthen defense and security ties in Southeast Asia. The Chinese defense ministry announced their navy will deploy a missile-bearing frigate and mine-hunting ship to the combined drills but did not specify the location. Singapore has conducted maritime drills with both the U.S. and China in recent years, amid elevated tensions in the South China Sea. Reuters

Australia Needs to Upgrade Defenses, from Budget to Long-Range Missiles. Australia needs a major shakeup of its defense capabilities, the largest since World War II, according to a review released on Monday by The Defense Strategic Review that was commissioned by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. According to the review, the United States was no longer the “unipolar leader of the Indo Pacific” as competition between the US and China had begun to grow in the region, and this increased a potential conflict. The report suggested that Australia needs to prioritize long range strike capability, increase domestic production of weapons, and focus on diplomacy. Albanese said that his government plans to follow the recommendations and focus on implementing them.  Al Jazeera Associated Press Reuters 

Middle East & Northern Africa

Israel Arrests Jordanian Lawmaker on Suspicion of Arms and Gold Smuggling, Jordan Claims. Israel has detained Imad al Adwan, a Jordanian member of parliament, on suspicion of smuggling arms and gold into the West Bank, according to Jordan’s foreign ministry. Al Adwan was reportedly crossing a main border near the Jordan river by car, where he was detained. The Israeli foreign ministry has declined to comment, but Jordan’s foreign ministry announced that they were working to secure his release.   Al Jazeera Reuters

Netanyahu to Meet Florida Governor DeSantis during Israel Trip. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to meet with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis on his trip to Israel this week, according to an announcement Netanyahu made on CBS on Sunday. DeSantis is traveling to Japan, South Korea, Israel, and the United States as he gears up to announce his expected 2024 Presidential candidacy.

Reuters  

Tens of Thousands Protest Israel’s Judicial Reform Plan ahead of 75th Anniversary. On Saturday, tens of thousands of Israelis joined protests Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plans to tighten controls of the Supreme Court. The plans were paused last month in response to a wave of worker strikes and mass protests. The latest demonstrations come ahead of this week’s Israeli Independence Day and Israeli memorial day, which commemorates those killed in Israel’s wars and terror attacks. The proposals have caused one of the biggest domestic crises in Israel’s history; they would give the government effective control over the appointment of Supreme Court judges and allow parliament to overrule court decisions, effectively eliminating checks and balances and handing the prime minister and legislature unchecked power. As time has gone on, protests have grown larger, exposing deep fault lines in Israeli society. Israel’s public broadcaster released a poll on Friday that found the plans remain deeply unpopular, with 53% saying they believe the proposal will harm the country. Al Jazeera Associated Press Reuters

Sub Saharan Africa

UK, France, Germany, United Nations, and Others Evacuate Citizens Amid Continued Clashes in Sudan. Since Saturday, the UK, France, Canada, and several other countries have evacuated citizens and personnel from Sudan amid continued fighting in Khartoum and elsewhere. In a joint statement, the French foreign and army ministries said that they had evacuated 388 people so far, including French nationals and citizens of Europe, Africa, and Asia. Turkey reportedly gathered 640 people in buses and evacuated them by land. A convoy of about 65 vehicles carrying 700 international United Nations, NGO, and embassy staff and dependents drove from Khartoum to Port Sudan on Sunday as part of the evacuations. More than 150 people were also evacuated by sea to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The evacuation of international staff from Darfur, where fighting has escalated, is also reportedly under way. Although evacuations are ongoing, tens of thousands of foreign nationals remain trapped in Sudan. The international airport in Khartoum remains closed as clashes continue there, throughout the capital, and in surrounding cities. New York Times BBC Reuters

U.S. Claims Wagner Supporting Sudanese Paramilitary Group, Fueling Further Conflict. U.S. officials claim that Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the infamous Wagner Group private military company, has offered weapons to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The American officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly, maintain that despite his public appeals for peace, Mr. Prigozhin is intent on fueling the ongoing fighting between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), led by Gen. Abdul Fattal al-Burhan, and the RSF, led by Lt. Gen. Mohamed Hamdan, also known as Hemedti. U.S. officials say that Wagner, which has a historical relationship with Hemedti and has previously provided him with military equipment, has offered surface-to-air missiles and other weapons to the RSF from their stocks in neighboring Central African Republic. As of Friday, Hemedti reportedly had not decided whether to accept the weapons. Separate analysis from CNN citing satellite imagery from Maxar technologies indicates increasing movement of Russian transport planes between bases in neighboring Libya, which are also associated with the Wagner Group. The bases are reportedly controlled by Khalifa Haftar, a Libyan general whose failed campaign to take Tripoli in 2021 was aided by Hemedti, who is reportedly supporting the RSF in its fight against the SAF. The RSF denied receiving support from Russia or Libya in a statement to CNN. New York Times CNN

Some Foreign Nationals Wounded as Thousands Try to Flee Sudan. The attempted exodus of tens of thousands of foreign nationals from Sudan, Africa’s third-largest country, has been challenging and dangerous. In separate incidents, an Iraqi citizen was killed during clashes in Sudan and Egypt said one of its diplomats had been wounded. Separately, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group looted a Qatari convoy heading to Port Sudan; a French convoy was also reportedly attacked, injuring one French citizen.  Reuters Reuters

Sudanese Feel Abandoned Amid Continued Evacuations of Foreign Nationals. While foreign governments evacuate diplomats, staff, and foreign nationals from Sudan, Sudanese citizens fleeing the fighting and chaos are reportedly increasingly feeling abandoned. Some lashed out on Sunday, claiming that foreign officials went too far to appease the generals fueling the fighting, particularly since they came to power in a coup and have long records of abuse, including human rights violations. The fighting has closed most hospitals, and humanitarian operations are also largely paused. Food prices are expected to soar and become even more difficult to find; Sudan’s largest flour mill was destroyed in fighting over the weekend. Tens of thousands have fled Sudan into neighboring countries including South Sudan, Chad, Ethiopia, and Egypt. Millions more are sheltering in their homes amid fighting and looting without electricity, food, or water. According to internet monitoring service NetBlocks, Sudan experienced a “near-total collapse of its internet and phone services” on Sunday, which is expected to have a major impact on residents’ safety and ability to communicate, and will also probably impact ongoing evacuation efforts. Sudanese would-be-evacuees have leveraged WhatsApp and social media to exchange information about ticket prices, border crossings, and security conditions. Associated Press Reuters New York Times 

Rapid Support Forces Attack Kobar Prison, Repelled by Sudan Armed Forces. A senior Sudanese military official on Sunday said the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) repelled a Rapid Support Forces (RSF) attack on Kobar Prison in Khartoum. The notorious prison is where Sudan’s longtime ruler, Omar al-Bashir, and other former Sudanese government officials have been held since the 2019 coup. The SAF official said a number of prisoners fled after the attack, that “a few prisoners” were killed or wounded, but that Bashir and other high-profile inmates were in a “highly secure” area and unaffected. The RSF claimed the SAF removed Bashir and other prisoners from the prison, although that statement could not be independently confirmed. Associated Press

EU Will Continue Pursuit of Political Settlement in Sudan. On Monday, the EU’s top diplomat said that the bloc will keep working for a political settlement to the conflict there. Josep Borrell said before a meeting with EU foreign ministers that were Sudan to implode, “it would send shockwaves throughout the whole of Africa” and added that the EU’s ambassador to Sudan was still in the country and would be “the last one leaving the ship”. Reuters

U.S. Agency for International Development Deploying Disaster Response Team to Help Sudan. Samantha Power, head of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) said on Sunday that the agency was deploying a team of disaster response experts to coordinate the humanitarian response in Sudan amid continued fighting there. The team will reportedly operate out of Kenya, where USAID has a sizable presence focused on operations throughout East Africa, for the initial phase. Power reiterated calls for both sides to abide by the ceasefire for the Eid al-Fitr holiday, end their fighting, and comply with international humanitarian law, including enabling safe and unhindered access for humanitarian and medical workers. Reuters

Suicide Bombing in Central Mali Kills At Least Nine. At least nine people are dead and more than 60 wounded following a triple suicide bomb attack in the town of Sevare in central Mali on Saturday, according to a spokesperson for the regional governor. The spokesperson told Reuters that all victims of the attack were civilians, not military, and that no one has claimed responsibility yet for the attack. The attack also destroyed about 20 buildings in the city. The Mali government said in a statement that the army had prevented a terror attack in the town of Sevare on Saturday, but did not provide further details.   Al Jazeera Reuters 

Assault in Northern Burkina Faso Kills More Than 60 Civilians. More than 60 civilians were killed in northern Burkina Faso on Friday by people wearing Burkina Faso Armed Forces uniforms, according to local prosecutor Lamine Kabore. Mr. Kabore said an investigation had been launched; the area has been victim to attacks from Islamist groups affiliated with al-Qaida and the Islamic State for years. According to Human Rights Watch, attacks by armed groups on civilians have surged since 2022 while state security forces and volunteer defense troops have conducted a number of abusive counter-terrorism operations. Armed groups are thought to control about 40 percent of the country. Al Jazeera Reuters 

Ethiopia to Begin Negotiations with Rebel Oromo Liberation Army in Tanzania. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the rebel Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) will begin peace negotiations in Tanzania tomorrow – the first time Addis Ababa has formally said it would negotiate with the rebel group, which it has sporadically fought for decades. The OLA is an outlawed splinter group of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), an opposition party that was banned until Abiy took office in 2018. Both groups’ grievances are rooted in the alleged marginalization of the Oromo people, which are the largest ethnic group in Ethiopia, and the federal government’s neglect. The OLA and government both blame each other for attacks in the Oromiya region, in which scores of civilians have been killed. Reuters

Gunmen in Southeast Nigeria Kill Five Police Officers, Two Civilians. Gunmen in southeastern Imo state killed five Nigerian police officers and two civilians on Friday, the latest incident in rising gang and separatist violence in the state. The government has blamed the banned separatist Indigenous People of the Biafra (IPOB) group for recent attacks on police stations, government, and electoral offices; IPOB denies the allegations. Reuters

Cyber & Tech

DHS Chief Announces 90-day Study of China Cybersecurity, AI Uses.  Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas announced on Friday that his agency will conduct a 90-day “sprint” campaign to examine “acute” Chinese threats to U.S. critical infrastructure.  The study also aims to find ways to disrupt the fentanyl supply chain, identify travelers who exploit immigration processes to collect intelligence, and examine how China’s influence on supply chains might be reduced.  Mayorkas also reported that an Artificial Intelligence Task Force is being formed to assess how AI applications can help the department carry out its mission.  CyberScoop

Sudan Internet Outages as Fighting Disrupts Power Grid, Generator Supplies.  Severe Internet outages are being experienced across Sudan as fighting continues between rival military factions in the capital city, Khartoum, and elsewhere.  The Internet outage monitor NetBlocks told Recorded Future that the current outages are being caused by power shortages as well as the disruption of gasoline supplies to backup generators “amid heavy weapons strikes on population centers.”  TheRecord

New NATO Member Finland Experiencing Rise in Cyberattacks.  The Finnish communications agency has reported a noticeable rise in cyberattacks on Finnish government and commercial systems since the country joined on April 4.   The agency identified Russia as the source of the increase in cyber threats, noting that Moscow has turned to cyberwarfare as its human intelligence efforts have become more complicated.  A Finnish official noted that increased cyber activity has been directed against state administration and critical infrastructure companies.  TheRecord

3CX Breach Included Compromise of U.S., European Energy Sector Firms.  Among the targets of the software supply chain attacks directed at the 3CX communications firm were two critical infrastructure organizations in the U.S. and Europe.  Malware from a financial services company impacted the energy sector organizations as well as “two other organizations involved in financial trading.”  Symantec researchers noted that “North Korean-sponsored actors are known to engage in both espionage and financially motivated attacks, and it cannot be ruled out that strategically important organizations breached during a financial campaign are targeted for further exploitation.”  BleepingComputer CyberScoop TheRecord   

White House Cyber Chief Says Administration Avoiding 5G Missteps in 6G Race with China.  Anne Neuberger, the deputy national security advisor for cybersecurity, told reporters covering a National Science Foundation summit on Friday that the U.S. wants to take lessons learned from 5G implementations “about the importance of early involvement and resilience” as the nation prepares for 6G systems.  Since this technology is still years away from widespread use, Neuberger said, the administration can preclude an early lead by China in next generation telecommunications.  In the introduction and deployment of 5G technologies, China’s development of domestic equipment manufacturing and leadership in international standard-setting allowed it to gain substantial footholds in the sector.  CyberScoop Wall Street Journal

New Chinese Legislation To Define Foreign Cyberattacks as Espionage.  China’s legislators plan to introduce changes to the country’s anti-espionage law that for the first time will define cyberattacks by a “spying entity or its surrogate” as an act of espionage.  A spokesperson for the National People’s Congress Legislative Affairs Committee said that this latest change to the 2014 espionage law “clearly defines cyberattacks, intrusions, interference, control and destruction” by foreign intelligence as espionage.  The legislative revision come on the heels of a number of Chinese espionage cases being announced in April that involved “surrogates” recruited by foreign spy agencies.   South China Morning Post

UK Chip Designer Plans Foray Into Manufacture of Advanced Semiconductor.  In a departure from company tradition, Britain’s leading chip designer, Arm, plans to join with manufacturing partners to produce a prototype of a “more advanced” chip.   A new Arm team has been formed to lead design of the prototype chip designed for use in mobile devices and laptops.  The team also will focus on improving design performance and security and expand developer access to its products.  Financial Times

Chinese Researchers Say TikTok Among Social Media Engaged in “Cognitive War” on Russia.  Researchers from the People’s Liberation Army have identified TikTok as among the social media platforms engaged in propaganda campaigns against Russia.  The military analysis said leading global social media, including Google, Facebook, Twitter as well as TikTok, have “greatly undermined Russian military morale” and eroded Moscow’s international image.  The study also concluded that the U.S. and allied governments have showcased content depicting Russian military abuses and have used artificial intelligence to generate derogatory fake images and photos of Russia.  The report also said Russia used technology platforms for the same purpose, but did not elaborate.   South China Morning Post

Stanford, MIT Scientists Developing Ransomware-Resilient Operating System.  Leading computer scientists from Stanford and MIT are working toward an ambitious goal – to develop an operating system capable of mitigating cyberattacks and recovering from ransomware almost immediately.  Michael Coden, an MIT cybersecurity researcher, described the effort as a “total new paradigm.” The database-oriented operating system (DBOS) will be exhibited at the upcoming RSA cybersecurity conference in San Francisco, where it will demonstrate in real time its resilient response to a simulated ransomware attack.  Coden noted the internal detection capabilities make external cybersecurity tools unnecessary and allow systems to quickly “roll back to the pre-attack state for business continuity.”   CyberScoop

Beijing Firm Plans Internet Satellite Service for Chinese Hypersonic Program.  A Beijing firm, GalaxySpace, has announced plans to play a significant role in China’s hypersonic program by providing “communication services for high mobility aerospace craft,” including hypersonic drones and high-speed spacecraft.  The company recently reported on tests that maintained continuous, bidirectional data transmission between six GalaxySpace satellites and a fast-moving terminal.  Test results, according to the company’s research team, indicated the GalaxySpace technology is capable of maintaining a stable connection, even during satellite switching.  Space experts noted it is “somewhat unusual” for a private sector firm like GalaxySpace to be involved in a program with military applications such as reconnaissance and combat management.  South China Morning Post